Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 24 Jun 2009 02:41

pigLeT attacks tend to follow a specific pattern.

1. TSP establishment-linked hawks publicly identify an area of "grievance" or "threat" from India - E.g. India's economic success, IT growth, communal schism ('persecuted' Muslims) etc.

2. Hafiz-e-pig focuses his sermons on a subset of this

3. Attacks happen in short order

I've not had the time to follow TSP news as frequently as I used to, but my sense is that the following areas are being talked about by the likes of Hamid Gul and other jihadi ideologues.

1. Indian dams in J&K
2. India's ethnic schisms - Sikh and Tamil nonsense
3. Consulates in Afghanistan - of course

Read what you will from this.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 24 Jun 2009 02:59

Pakis want to add Water agenda in "piss process" and are scared shit to realize that in 10-15 years they are gonna be on mercy of Indians 400% for when to sow crop and when not to. Their water , food security will be under our feet , which they must kiss and clean as Dhimmi.
Dams will be on the priority list of Terrorist People of Pakistan. But then this might be the excuse India need to abrogate IWT at Her own discretion.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 24 Jun 2009 03:11

So R-man, an indicator would be an incrase in takleef articles in the TSP press. So instead of the vaccum sweeper methodology of the TSP news and discussion threads we need some focussed ones to identify the indicator. But then jalebi and her clones have takleef with everything. The task is to seperate the whines(chaff) from real takleef(wheat).

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 24 Jun 2009 03:58

shiv wrote: India is a nation committing slow suicide. It is like an alcoholic - or a heroin addict, happy with his circumstances, not knowing that his insides are being eaten away.

I am not sure if the GOI feels that way. One way to interpret the GOI (& for that matter even the Indian public) actions is based on our strong tendency towards "survivalism". Survival of the race at the cost of dignity & at the cost of lives. That's not a value judgement, just an observation. We cannot stomach any action that even remotely invokes the possibility of The Bomb coming into play.

Just like there is an escalation along the conventional military action, there is an escalation along the covert axis as well. Starting from jihadi action in J&K/non prominent parts of India --> Mumbai style attacks --> Parliment style attacks --> Stingers downing planes --> dirty nukes. IMO, this gradation along the covert axis is another deterrent in India pursuing a punitive strike option.

I dont think even Pakistan has any concrete plans to what the end-state vis-a-vis India would look like. The continuous state of war might be an end in itself. It could explain why the ISI too doesnt go up the covert escalation ladder. As long as they get their golden eggs (enough kafirs killed in the name of Islam), why try to kill the goose?

So, nothing might change because India and Pakistan seem to be in a state of stable equilibrium. Any move way from this state will result in corrective actions by both countries to restore the equilibrium.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 24 Jun 2009 04:15

Might be useful to get familiar with this methodology for many threads on this forum

Bracken on Net Assessment

and

Commentary and Reply

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 24 Jun 2009 06:02

ramana wrote:But then jalebi and her clones have takleef with everything. The task is to seperate the whines(chaff) from real takleef(wheat).

ramana - the "takleef with everything" is the indicator of continuous war. That is what we need to note and internalize an understand that the "takleef with everything" leads to Pakistanis always looking out for opportunities to hit. The "wheat" may be difficult to pinpoint - for example - someone has spoken of a possible air attack on the previous page. We have an overload of information ranging from the rants of pure hatred (chaff) to specific intel information - to actual arrests and elimination of L-e-piglets on a daily basis (wheat). The war is already in progress and I think India as a nation needs to admit that.

Do we really need any more specific information on the fact that there is a war on, albeit being waged by Pakistan and being denied by India?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 24 Jun 2009 06:21

Prem Kumar wrote:
I dont think even Pakistan has any concrete plans to what the end-state vis-a-vis India would look like. The continuous state of war might be an end in itself. It could explain why the ISI too doesnt go up the covert escalation ladder. As long as they get their golden eggs (enough kafirs killed in the name of Islam), why try to kill the goose?

So, nothing might change because India and Pakistan seem to be in a state of stable equilibrium. Any move way from this state will result in corrective actions by both countries to restore the equilibrium.

This is an interesting line of thought and I agree that Pakistan has no goal other than being at war with India. Pakistan's survival has clearly been linked to distancing itself from India by fighting India, with a double benefit that was expected to accrue from such a conflict

1) At best India would break up and the perceived old Mughal glory would be translated as "Pakistan ruling India"
2) At worst, Pakistan's identity separate from India would be maintained

But being in a state of war with India is necessary for both outcomes from the Pakistani viewpoint.

But if India and Pakistan are "at a stable equilibrium" that state of "stable equilibrium" has been achieved at the behest of Pakistan initiating and fighting an endless war against India, and India responding just enough to keep Pakistan at bay. In other words the equilibrium state is controlled by Pakistan's actions and India's reactions, rather than a stable state that can be reached by two neighbors at peace like the US and Canada.

It is Pakistan that upsets the equilibrium at will and India that reacts to restore the equilibrium.

How about India inflicting massive damage on some Pakistani entities and then watching what happens to the equilibrium?

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 24 Jun 2009 06:34

India not a threat
“I do not consider India a military threat; the question is that India has the capability. Capability is what matters. (With regard to) intention I think we both have our good intentions. India is a reality, Pakistan is a reality, but Taliban are a threat, an international threat … to our way of life. And at the moment, I’m focused on the Taliban. It’s something that has been going on for a long time and of course went unchecked under the dictatorial rule of the last president,” he told EuroNews while visiting Brussels for the first summit between the European Union (EU) and Islamabad.
http://www.thepakistaninewspaper.com/ne ... p?id=13989

Dus percenti was issuing same kind of India friendly statements before Mumbai terrorist attack.

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 24 Jun 2009 09:29

shiv wrote: But being in a state of war with India is necessary for both outcomes from the Pakistani viewpoint.

There seems to be some similarities between Pakistan and Marxist ideologies. Both are reactionary & need their "opposite" to justify their existence. Hence both feed off a state of perpetual conflict.

shiv wrote: It is Pakistan that upsets the equilibrium at will and India that reacts to restore the equilibrium.

How about India inflicting massive damage on some Pakistani entities and then watching what happens to the equilibrium?

Yep - India has been reactive and never pushed for a change in the equilibrium even at opportune moments like the 4 wars. A low-risk option to move the equilibrium towards a more favorable point is by using covert tit-for-tat attacks within Pakistan by RAW, as others have suggested in this thread.

Massive damage (like bombing POK camps or ISI HQ) is an interesting option - it puts the ball squarely in TSP's court. Its daring them to cross the nuclear threshold. I believe they have enough self preservation instincts that they will make noises but not actually cross the threshold. But will the GOI gather enough guts to do this?

The covert option must be expanded significantly till TSP is sufficiently weakened - at which point of time, overt steps can be taken to fell the tree. Now would be an opportune moment to kick this into high gear - with the massive numbers of IDPs in camps, it should be relatively easy to infiltrate/bribe/brainwash disgruntled elements. Plus the camps provide more anonymity than villages/cities. Is RAW listening?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 24 Jun 2009 09:43

Prem Kumar wrote: There seems to be some similarities between Pakistan and Marxist ideologies. Both are reactionary & need their "opposite" to justify their existence. Hence both feed off a state of perpetual conflict.

Yes, and this has already been pointed out by brihaspati

Prem Kumar wrote:
Massive damage (like bombing POK camps or ISI HQ) is an interesting option - it puts the ball squarely in TSP's court. Its daring them to cross the nuclear threshold. I believe they have enough self preservation instincts that they will make noises but not actually cross the threshold. But will the GOI gather enough guts to do this?

India must not fear hitting Pakistan because of its nukes. And here Pakistan has calculated wisely.

Pakistan has to nuke Indian cities in a war. Indian cities consist of the Indian elite who are afraid of losing a lot in case of nuclear war.

But any patriotic Indian should be able to understand that nuking a few cities is not the end of India. 99% of the population - in the villages and small towns will survive.

If Pakistan nukes the countryside - it will hurt India less and India's elite will have an excuse to nuke Pakistan. So Pakistan must nuke Indian cities, noot the countryside. As long as the Indian elite are afraid of this they will be afraid to wage war against Pakistan. It is the cowardly and selfish elite of India, (including, I suspect 99% of BRFites) who oppose nuclear war because it is their personal interests that will be hit.

We have to get beyond this and understand that it is worth risking nuclear war with Pakistan. Let the Pakistani elites be eliminated, but most of India will survive. Yes I sound like a maniacal radical - but the Pakistani elite are afraid of the sort of "irrationality" that I am showing. What is protecting the Paki elite is a confidence in Indian rationality. Once the Indian elite get rid of their fully rational fears that nuclear war will affect them more than the commons - Pakistan's fears will stand exposed.

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 24 Jun 2009 10:01

Interesting you brought up the nuclear rubicon. I dont know if this has been discussed in BRF before. But this should definitely not be a "no-go" territory. There is a post nuclear life and our wargaming scenarios need to make a cold blooded analysis of what this world will look like. Take a couple of examples other than nuking cities:

a) TSP deploys a low kiloton device on forward Indian troops

b) Smuggles in and detonates a dirty nuke via their proxies - thus attempting deniability as well

Maybe it is classified, but I havent seen any articulation of what the Indian State's response to these acts would be. Would the response be proportional or total? Is it a brigade for a brigade, city for a city or "total annihilation if you touch a hair on my body"? Maybe a topic for BRF to dwell upon.

In certain circumstances, a non-committal stance on the above scenarios is beneficial - it keeps the enemy guessing. But in India's case, its detrimental. Since we have managed to convince everyone that we are softies, leaving the answers to above questions ambiguous can invite a first strike.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 24 Jun 2009 10:32

Shiv, Can you lay off the pisko talk in some of the threads? A request and if you want to consider it more than that.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 24 Jun 2009 11:47

Prem Kumar wrote:Interesting you brought up the nuclear rubicon. I dont know if this has been discussed in BRF before. But this should definitely not be a "no-go" territory. There is a post nuclear life and our wargaming scenarios need to make a cold blooded analysis of what this world will look like.

I made a beginner's attempt at such an analysis here

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 61#p613861

It's unfortunate that Rahul M's excellent "Pakistani Nukes: Boom or Bluff" thread happened to fall by the wayside. We ought to revive it for this topic of discussion.

However... I don't think nukes provide any sort of solution, ultimately.

The only clear, unarguable data point we have is that reconciliation with Pakistan is completely impossible. There is no situation in which the costs (and risks) of attempting reconciliation with even an abject and helpless population of a completely failed Pakistan, would be worth it to India.

The seeds sown by Pakistani education will last generations. A strong Pakistan is perilous to India, and a weak Pakistan is also perilous to India. As Pakistan dwindles economically, socially, politically... the accumulating bitterness will only deepen and feed the aggravation of takleef to unprecedented heights. If we embrace a failed Pakistan and its people, we will only be bringing the continuous war under our own roof. That is beyond doubt.

In fact, the only guarantee of security for the next generation of Indians, lies in ensuring that there is no next generation of Pakistanis.

However, nukes are not going to do anything. We don't have an arsenal capable of wiping them out, period... even if it were politically feasible to use it. See my nuke analysis for details. All we can achieve with nukes (even if we found the political/military opportunity to use them in a first strike), would be to compound the mess Pakistan is currently in by breaking the back of the TSPA. That isn't a lasting solution.

Control over water resources could be helpful, yet slow and vulnerable to international intervention. Far more helpful would be if some sort of particularly virulent epidemic began causing very large numbers of deaths in Pakistan over a short period of time.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 24 Jun 2009 16:14

ramana wrote:Shiv, Can you lay off the pisko talk in some of the threads? A request and if you want to consider it more than that.

Sorry? What pisko talk? I haven't the faintest idea what you are talking about. What post are you referring to ramana? I write the way I think. You want me to stop thinking, or do you want me start thinking like someone else?

If there is anything you haven't understood -- please point me to it so I can make myself clear. There is no "pisko talk" as far as I can tell. Why don't you just put me on your ignore list? And I will return the favor.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 24 Jun 2009 17:01

ramana wrote:But then jalebi and her clones have takleef with everything. The task is to seperate the whines(chaff) from real takleef(wheat).

I feel that when takleef (which is always present) is followed by rising strident voices against India, that's when it spells trouble for Bharat. And, I am seeing more and more of these nowadays. Zardari, Qureshi, Rehman Malik, Gilani et al have all threatened India in the last week or so.

Duangkomon · Post by **Duangkomon** » 24 Jun 2009 18:35

ramana wrote:Shiv, Can you lay off the pisko talk in some of the threads? A request and if you want to consider it more than that.

BR for me is a standout forum because of inquisitive posters like shiv and others who are genuine in their attempt to get to the crux of the matter unlike others who are too wedded to their particular politics and ideology to make any honest contribution. I find this threat from ramana quite bizarre. Given the number of blatant nonsensical and outrageous posts that escape such threats I am at a loss to understand what prompted this.
Did he violate some secret code that I am not aware of?

If this move to censure posters succeed just because they have a contrarian view and make certain entities feel uncomfortable, BR will turn into a farcical comedy of a few US citizens indulging in their nostalgic delusional super Brahmin fantasies. The heartache in these quarters makes you wonder if shiv is onto something which will ultimately undermine their credibility if they have any. The desperation and uneasiness betrayed in this vague and bizarre accusation of "pisko talk" whatever that means warrants a deep pisko analysis in itself.

I hope the saner voices among admins don't let certain sacred cows run riot and turn BR into their exclusive temple ground.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 24 Jun 2009 18:46

The Talebjabis have long planned their moves carefully. I think, somewhere, I had written quite a while ago, that the main tactic will be for them to launch a formal "push" against the Taleb base in Swat. This will be followed by a formal retreat by the irregulars of TalebPA up north. Proper spectacular actiosn will be maintained for appearance and "zazyia from USA". However, the TalebPA will simply spread out gradually in a general northwards direction using the push as a cover - with forces moving north-east towards the POK. Gradually the LET, etc will be gathered back into the fold under Talebs just as stray irregular units are drawn back as and when a main field army moves to forward positions and prepares to cross over into "enemy" zone (in this case it is the gray zone of immediate ring around LOC). The PA can then follow them up as "pusuing forces" and keep the Talebs supplied. The push into Kashmir will be made under TalebPA cover. PRC will be ready with matching posturings in the far NE and east of Ladakh and HP.

This does not mean spectacular terror attacks will decrease in the interior of India. In fact they are more likely to increase, in the deep south west. This will be to distract from the moves inside TSP and Swat. The first part of this move is the activation of the red-corridor. I am not sure that the GOI is entirely unaware of this possibility. The reason they moved quickly just now (apart from political considerations I mentioned) wrt to Maoists and send troops to the far NE in a overt move to counter PRC tactics.

Should look carefully for political changes/admin moves made by or traceable to GOI in the south-western states.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 24 Jun 2009 19:01

shiv wrote:Pakistan has to nuke Indian cities in a war. Indian cities consist of the Indian elite who are afraid of losing a lot in case of nuclear war.

But any patriotic Indian should be able to understand that nuking a few cities is not the end of India. 99% of the population - in the villages and small towns will survive.

If Pakistan nukes the countryside - it will hurt India less and India's elite will have an excuse to nuke Pakistan. So Pakistan must nuke Indian cities, noot the countryside. As long as the Indian elite are afraid of this they will be afraid to wage war against Pakistan. It is the cowardly and selfish elite of India, (including, I suspect 99% of BRFites) who oppose nuclear war because it is their personal interests that will be hit.

Astute observation Shiv-ji!

This is the crux of the problem. Attack on an Indian is not an attack on India. This is what Brihaspati-ji said in his Unity and Diversity post. We have seen this thought process on BR as well.

As long as Pakistan bleeds India at the limb level – that is commons, Indian political/military systems do not strategize for a nuke-war scenario. India already paid more than a nuke war as rent to keep Pakistan in good humor as I outlined in this post: http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 39#p680939. The devastation that happened during Khalistan terrorism amounts to one nuke bomb and the devastation that has been happening in JK amounts to another.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 24 Jun 2009 20:02

Invoking the Obama speak, it pains me to see some tension between good friends and fellow BR experienced posters Shiv and Ramana

.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 24 Jun 2009 21:17

shiv wrote:
......It is the cowardly and selfish elite of India, (including, I suspect 99% of BRFites) who oppose nuclear war because it is their personal interests that will be hit.

....

You make well reasoned posts and slip in your pisko remarks about BR members. A typical pisko operation and this is not confined to the threads you start. There is a constant berating of BRF membership in most of your posts off late. And it will rub off on others.

Am taking your suggestion and putting you on ignore list. Good luck.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 24 Jun 2009 23:12

Prem wrote:India not a threat
“I do not consider India a military threat; the question is that India has the capability. Capability is what matters. (With regard to) intention I think we both have our good intentions. India is a reality, Pakistan is a reality, but Taliban are a threat, an international threat … to our way of life. And at the moment, I’m focused on the Taliban. It’s something that has been going on for a long time and of course went unchecked under the dictatorial rule of the last president,” he told EuroNews while visiting Brussels for the first summit between the European Union (EU) and Islamabad.
http://www.thepakistaninewspaper.com/ne ... p?id=13989

Dus percenti was issuing same kind of India friendly statements before Mumbai terrorist attack.

Maybe he is speaking the truth--implying the focus is on degrading India's capability, hence attacks on commercial and educational centers.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 24 Jun 2009 23:17

shiv wrote:

India must not fear hitting Pakistan because of its nukes. And here Pakistan has calculated wisely.

Pakistan has to nuke Indian cities in a war. Indian cities consist of the Indian elite who are afraid of losing a lot in case of nuclear war.

But any patriotic Indian should be able to understand that nuking a few cities is not the end of India. 99% of the population - in the villages and small towns will survive.

If Pakistan nukes the countryside - it will hurt India less and India's elite will have an excuse to nuke Pakistan. So Pakistan must nuke Indian cities, noot the countryside. As long as the Indian elite are afraid of this they will be afraid to wage war against Pakistan. It is the cowardly and selfish elite of India, (including, I suspect 99% of BRFites) who oppose nuclear war because it is their personal interests that will be hit.

We have to get beyond this and understand that it is worth risking nuclear war with Pakistan. Let the Pakistani elites be eliminated, but most of India will survive. Yes I sound like a maniacal radical - but the Pakistani elite are afraid of the sort of "irrationality" that I am showing. What is protecting the Paki elite is a confidence in Indian rationality. Once the Indian elite get rid of their fully rational fears that nuclear war will affect them more than the commons - Pakistan's fears will stand exposed.

There is nothing in Indian history that suggests that the kind of "irrationality" described above will ever become a reality. Rather than wishing that a weakness would go away, wouldn't it be better to identify the strengths on our side and devise a strategy that will take advantage of them?

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 25 Jun 2009 02:33

It is not impossible that TSP will soon find itself in a position where using the nukes against India is the only way left for it to exist as there is no other national agenda or justification for existence left. This can be precipitated by financial and economic crises in PRC as well as USA. Sections within the USA will see an advantage in tacitly goading or encouraging PRC and TSP to move against India, possibly with nukes.

This has many tactical advantages. First, the nukes are expended, and their locations and supporting infrastructure surely identified and there are less nukes left in TalebPA hands to be used against the USA or its allies in the region. Second, India can be forced to concede further to US "collaboration" and even US access further NE into POK closer to CA bordering PRC and Russia. Third, at a proper time, USA can offer to intervene which India may not in a position to refuse.

One of the astute tactics that can be adopted by TalebPA' is to admit or declare that military resources, arsenal including nukes have fallen into Taleb hands because the "world" community did not do enough to strengthen the hands of the "civilian government" of TSP. This could include various points of "not doing enough" like Obama not giving more zazyia and more frequently, or India still not dissolving itself, or the subcontinent has till not entirely adopted the Sharia, or Kashmir still not handed over to TSP, etc.

By admitting such loss of hardware as above, the TalebPA at one stroke absolves and diassociates itself from responsiibility ofr the use or non-use of such hardware. In fact, the greater is the pressure to secure nukes away from "Taleb-Qaeda" hands, the greater will be the temptation for the TalebPA-ISI to take this route. The actual use of nukes will still be detrmined by PA strategic needs, and only possibly mediated or influenced by the Chinese, who probably also carry out their own tests through NK. The tactical use of nukes in TalebPA hands will be a combined decision of the regular-PA, the irregular-PA the Talebs, and the PLA. It will be blamed on Talebs only.

India can pre-empt this at least psychologically, if it prepares its northern plains populations seriously and sincerely in facing the consequences of a nuke attack. During this exercise, the possible threat sources should also be categorically declared as the TalebPA combine and PRC. This will firmly associate these two entities as the nuclear blackmailers they really are, in the public mind. It also means a great political disadvantage for both these entities, as they will have to do their best to convince the world that they are not really planning to nuke India.

p_saggu · Post by **p_saggu** » 25 Jun 2009 03:06

There can be a situation, where the talibs have most of the nukes and are threatening glorious Pakjab with a surrender-or-else scenario. The crazies in Pakjab might launch a nuke at india, knowing that India will take out the talib and all other nukes.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 25 Jun 2009 09:22

KV Rao wrote: There is nothing in Indian history that suggests that the kind of "irrationality" described above will ever become a reality. Rather than wishing that a weakness would go away, wouldn't it be better to identify the strengths on our side and devise a strategy that will take advantage of them?

There us nothing in human history that suggests the humans will behave irrational in that manner. It is a "human weakness" to want to survive. But let me explain the point I am trying to make:

The signal that should go out to Pakistan is "We are ready and willing to take a nuclear strike from you Pakistan. Enough of us will survive to take you all out"

Are we sending such a signal to Pakistan now?

IMHO we are not. The signal we are sending to Pakistan is "We will accept any amount of terrorism and the occasional war from you as long as you don't nuke us"

And Pakistan is telling India "We will do whatever we can to oppose you and hurt you, and remember, you will get nuked if you touch us"

Can anything be done? Here are my thoughts:

Nobody wants to be eliminated in war.

Indian policymakers, who arise from the Indian elite (the "ruling classes" if you like) are predominantly city based. These city based elites expect that they will be targeted by Pakistani nukes (and they are right).

Because they expect Pakistani nukes to target cities (Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore etc) and not Jhumritelaiya or Tirupattur the ruling elite of India take the following actions
a) They set up radars and defences (if any) around major cities which they and their ilk expect attacks
b) They move command and control outside these centers and make the statement "Oh if you hit us, we will vaporize you".

Despite these precautions and assurances of retaliation, the city based elite still do not feel safe enough to retaliate against Pakistan's attacks. All actions are guided by the overarching need to avoid crossing the nuclear rubicon.

The Pakistani leadership understand this perfectly well and take advantage of it by lowering the threshold at will. Every time they make a threat and lower their threshold, the city based Indian ruling classes act rationally and back down and do everything possible to avoid the possibility of a nuclear attack - which will put their lives and assets at risk.

What this amounts to is that India caves in to nuclear threats and avoids taking action against repeated "low grade" terrorist attacks because the slightest reaction brings a threat of nuclear attack from Pakistan.

Imagine a hypothetical situation in which the ruling classes of India were assured that they would not be attacked by Pakistani nuclear weapons. They would then not hesitate to punish Pakistan

Imagine (another hypothetical situation) if the 80% non elite/ non rulers of India, living in the towns and villages of India had control of Indian nuclear weapons. Would they be thwarted by Pakistani nukes? Chances are that if I lived in Jhumritelaiya or Tirupattur and I controlled Indian nuclear weapons, I would not worry so much about Mumbai or Bangalore being nuked. I would survive and nuke Pakistan back. The fear of nuclear attack is worse if you are personally in the path of a nuke missile, and bravery comes from being outside that path. This is fully rational behavior.

This is the exact rationale that guides location of second strike capability beyond the reach of a first strike.

Can this situation be modified in any way without asking people to behave irrationally?

I see two possible options:

1) Encourage the elite/rulers to have assets and homes outside areas under threat of Pakistani nuclear strike
2) Deliberately build up defences in cities. Missile defences if possible, as well as civil defence to survive a nuclear strike.

The signal that should go out to Pakistan is "We are ready and willing to take a nuclear strike from you Pakistan. Enough of us will survive to take you all out"

Are we sending such a signal to Pakistan now?

IMHO we are not. The signal we are sending to Pakistan is "We will accept any amount of terrorism and the occasional war from you as long as you don't nuke us"

And Pakistan is telling India "We will do whatever we can to oppose you and hurt you, and remember, you will get nuked if you touch us"

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 25 Jun 2009 09:25

brihaspati wrote: India can pre-empt this at least psychologically, if it prepares its northern plains populations seriously and sincerely in facing the consequences of a nuke attack. During this exercise, the possible threat sources should also be categorically declared as the TalebPA combine and PRC. This will firmly associate these two entities as the nuclear blackmailers they really are, in the public mind. It also means a great political disadvantage for both these entities, as they will have to do their best to convince the world that they are not really planning to nuke India.

I agree with this, except to say that India should prepare its big cities for nuclear attack.

shravan · Post by **shravan** » 25 Jun 2009 12:55

shiv wrote: I agree with this, except to say that India should prepare its big cities for nuclear attack.

Agreed Sir.

But I think India should make it clear to Pakistan that Islamabad will be attacked first.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 26 Jun 2009 02:22

shiv wrote: ...
There us nothing in human history that suggests the humans will behave irrational in that manner. It is a "human weakness" to want to survive. But let me explain the point I am trying to make:

The signal that should go out to Pakistan is "We are ready and willing to take a nuclear strike from you Pakistan. Enough of us will survive to take you all out"

Are we sending such a signal to Pakistan now?

IMHO we are not. The signal we are sending to Pakistan is "We will accept any amount of terrorism and the occasional war from you as long as you don't nuke us"

And Pakistan is telling India "We will do whatever we can to oppose you and hurt you, and remember, you will get nuked if you touch us"
...

We should be considering other possibilities as to what India's strategy is:

If we are willing to accept the blow of a nuclear attack, I suppose it stands to reason that we are also willing to accept much smaller blows like the Mumbai attacks. As for retaliation, even without the nuclear threat (I know, absence of nuclear threat is hypothetical), we could be seeing the cost of war itself as unacceptably high, compared to the opportunity cost of development and growth. In effect, our only retaliation might be to just absorb the blows, and keep growing stronger. The deterrent to the enemy is the potential threat of destruction by a strong India that becomes angry enough to react at last, and the uncertainty that prolonged inaction, coupled with continued growth and growing strength would bring. This was telegraphed by Parakram, leading to worldwide fears and panic. Promulgation of Cold Start has telegraphed that we can, if we choose, ignore the nuclear threat and take action.

I am not necessarily saying that your interpretation is wrong or mine is right. It is just that if we are guessing what India's strategy is, we need to take multiple coherent explanations into acccount.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 30 Jun 2009 06:41

OK - the alerts are starting again. Pakistanis are now comfortable that they will not have to pay a price

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Citi ... 718126.cms

IB warns of Lashkar threat in Gulf of Kutch
30 Jun 2009, 0231 hrs IST, TNN
Print Email Discuss Share Save Comment Text:

AHMEDABAD: Intelligence inputs on a possible terror attack on the Gulf of Kutch have put the Gujarat police on high alert. Intelligence Bureau
has sent inputs to all DGPs especially of coastal states alerting them of a possible Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) attack, mentioning the Gulf of Kutch as a vulnerable target.

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 30 Jun 2009 08:21

This is pure speculation onlee - there are two forms Paki terrorism can take

a. Massive attacks against the population aimed at showing Indians/Pakis that Indians are impotent and cannot retaliate. These operations might also serve the dual purpose of Jihadi angle with the terrorists portrayed as Jihadi raiders raiding the Kufr lands. Some terror attacks aimed at splitting the Hindu-Muslims. These kind of attacks are aking to a schoolyard bully lashing out, with no specific tactical objective in mind. The objective is more long term (along the lines of flying a flag on the red fort). Mumbai is an example. Indian Netas have typically tackled this by ignoring it. Making a few statements about the unacceptability.

b. Selective special forces like attacks that seek to Assasinate important political figures and sabotage infrastructure. These kind of attacks are more specific and are directed at influencing specific Indian policy to give Pakistan strategic space. Afghanistan embassy attack is an example. Indian netas have typically reacted by sending the army to the border.

I feel that the current western PC-ness vis-a-vis jihad and the sinking realization in Europe and NA that their own vulnerable population can become jihadis, will make them apply some kind of pressure on the Pakis against Jihadi raids. Also depending on how the current Taliban-Pakjabi fight plays out, the Mulla Military alliance might come under strain.

On the other hand, sabotage attacks and assasination might have a better payoff for the RAPEs and might be more palatable for the western audience.

The next terror attack will likely be on our infrastructure or important personalities. The caveats are of course two fold (a) the tanzeems mount a population attack for keeping the RAPEs and Jernails off balance (b) Infrastructure/assassination attacks are prevented because the Jernails have brownpants vis-a-vis Parakram. But I still have the nagging suspicion that it will be the latter. Dams in JK need to be guarded for example.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 30 Jun 2009 09:23

Anujan wrote: The next terror attack will likely be on our infrastructure or important personalities. The caveats are of course two fold (a) the tanzeems mount a population attack for keeping the RAPEs and Jernails off balance (b) Infrastructure/assassination attacks are prevented because the Jernails have brownpants vis-a-vis Parakram. But I still have the nagging suspicion that it will be the latter. Dams in JK need to be guarded for example.

The next terror attack is likely to be a suicide bomber - which is the best and most deniable way of causing terror. That would once again put India on the defensive and start trying to explain "Gujrat" and "Babri masjid" and "Kashmir"

Who is actually blamed for a terror attack on India is immaterial as long as Pakistan can conduct any spectacular attack. Media (including BRF) will automatically blame Pakistan, after which Pakistan will have the excuse it needs to keep the bulk of its soldiers from fighting fellow Pakis. To the Paki army - it is vitally important to keep its soldiers away from America's war on terror. The greater the percentage of Paki soldiers fighting fellow Pakis - the greater the strain put on the Pakistan army's own motto of jihad against kafirs, with a reduction in morale and an increase in the possibility of revolt.

It is cheaper to provoke India. I am hoping that India makes such provocation costly for the US and Pakistan.

BajKhedawal · Post by **BajKhedawal** » 30 Jun 2009 09:42

shiv wrote: The next terror attack is likely to be a suicide bomber - which is the best and most deniable way of causing terror. That would once again put India on the defensive and start trying to explain "Gujrat" and "Babri masjid" and "Kashmir"

Shiv not nitpicking but am a bit touchy about Gujarat being called by some paki city.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 30 Jun 2009 10:00

BajKhedawal wrote:
shiv wrote: The next terror attack is likely to be a suicide bomber - which is the best and most deniable way of causing terror. That would once again put India on the defensive and start trying to explain "Gujrat" and "Babri masjid" and "Kashmir"
Shiv not nitpicking but am a bit touchy about Gujarat being called by some paki city.

That spelling was deliberate. To indicate the direction that accusations come from to make Indians defensive. You know damn well that there is no need for any Indian to apologise to anyone about Gujarat. Gujrat is a different game that is being played.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 30 Jun 2009 10:08

I think the next terror attack will be:
1. Directed against the personnel who are engaged in construction of the hydel projects in J&K. These pakis can't bring in enough explosives to cause any damage of significance to the infrastructure. The only thing they can do is plain cheap terror - which they'll definitely try.
2. Hamid Gul and the others have yapped about Bangalore quite a lot. After going through BRF, they realize that most of India's defence science labs are based out of that city.
The science center attack was just a precursor, it is possible there will be attempts to cause large scale mayhem there, even a couple of jihadis invading a defence lab and trying to do a mumbai there.
3. Finally there will be some attack which will be to project the jihadis as Muslim warriors out to liberate Indian muslims from the oppression of the Indian Hindus. To this end I would be careful in the communally sensitive states Gujarat and the towns and cities of UP.
4. Mumbai had its attack, now it is Delhi's turn. So people from Delhi had better be careful.

But somehow I don't see Indian polity actively doing any thing to forestall such an attack. Other than intelligence and minimizing the impact when the attack has taken place. There have to be attempts to damage the enemy in its own lair.

AjayKK · Post by **AjayKK** » 30 Jun 2009 11:55

LeT plotting attack through sea routes again: Report

After attacking India’s commercial capital Mumbai last year, terror outfit Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) is again plotting again to attack Mumbai, Gujarat and Goa, this time too through sea route.

As per latest intelligence reports, the terror group is eyeing stratergically important establishments like Kandla & Mundra ports and Jamnagar refinery in Gujarat.

The Tarapur Atomic Power Station and Bhabha Atomic Research Centre are also said top be on the radar of the LeT, besides other targets in Maharashtra and the tourist hotspot of Goa.

The coastline in the west especially in the Konkan region is getting radicalised and is easily inducted for "smuggling" activities. Another time and era, the Konkani muslims spoke Konkani and would shun burkha and arabic. Since ninties, various arabic centres operate in the Konkan region dotting the coast with madrassas. Now, its like Malappuram of MH. Secular, inclusive growth only?

Lakshdweep is used by the smuggling syndicate and has been discussed in the Rajya Sabha.

Indian Express 1 Dec 2008 : Arun Shourie

The ( Godbole ) task force pointed out that the ISI had started using the Lakshadweep archipelago as a major staging point for smuggling arms and personnel into India. The agency used smugglers and their networks — like Dawood Ibrahim and his tentacles — and their routes for doing so. These dons and their networks were given shelter and support in return for helping the agency with its operations against India.

Now, Lakhsdweep has 36 islands. Ten of these are inhabited. Talking of one of these islands — Suheli — the task force pointed out that, sea vessels of smugglers apart, “there have been instances of twin rotor helicopters (of the kind used by militaries) landing at Suheli Island and spotting of unidentified helicopters flying over the waters around the islands...”

And what were we doing? “Intelligence gathering in the islands,” the task force recorded, “is carried out by one inspector, one sub inspector, one head constable and three constables working in the special branch at Kavaratti” — just one of the 36 islands. “Intelligence gathering in all other islands is carried out by one head constable/constable who reports to the OIC (the officer in charge) of the police station who in turn passes it on to the inspector (special branch) at Kavaratti.” Please read that again: 36 islands; one inspector, one sub inspector, one head constable and three constables on the main island; and one head constable/constable for all the remaining 35 islands...

What has happened since, what is the position today, I ask the person who has held the highest posts in intelligence. Exactly what it was then, he says, with one difference. With the upgradation of all posts, the inspector (special branch) at Kavaratti is now designated not as officer in charge, but as joint assistant director or deputy central intelligence officer depending on his cadre. As for the other recommendations — patrolling, setting up sensors, and a host of others things are as they were.

And we are surprised!

pgbhat · Post by **pgbhat** » 30 Jun 2009 12:14

Please read that again: 36 islands; one inspector, one sub inspector, one head constable and three constables on the main island; and one head constable/constable for all the remaining 35 islands...

400% sure onlee next attack will take place by sea or even by air

... whatever happened to IB/Naval/Coastal Intel

p_saggu · Post by **p_saggu** » 30 Jun 2009 22:11

Goa:
There has been a sudden proliferation of Kahsmiri shawl emporiums all over the towns in Goa. With 5-10 Kashmiri youths peddling the wares there. These guys are mostly on the streets asking tourists to come into their shops. Local Goans view them with suspicion.

I did not get the feeling these emporiums, mostly small shops were exactly selling a lot of shawls to support those number of employees. No telling which ones are sleeper cells.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 01 Jul 2009 00:11

Maybe I am paranoid but shouldn't this thread be made members-only?

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 01 Jul 2009 01:07

My $0.02 on predicting the next attack:

It will be a low-key one (possibly bomb blast) in a minor city where sleeper activity is possible - IOW one with a decent Muslim population. One way to interpret the release of Hafeez is that TSP is testing the waters. Poke a little and see if India screams. If yes, scale back. If not, poke some more. LeT and TSP cannot afford to stage another "spectacular" attack, not while Unkil wants them to focus on Af-Pak. Plus too much bad PR. An attack on a minor city will probably go unreported in the Western media.

The next "major" attack involving a key city/installation etc, which will come later, will involve locals also. These locals will probably be shaeed'ized/arrested & reported upon, thus perpetuating the myth that terrorism is a home-grown problem & is a natural venting of IMs against evil Yindoos.

Forestalling: if I may add to the large # of ideas already floated here. A hard option & a soft one:

a) The LeT and other piglet organizations seem very personality-centric. This is a theory only & I would like to hear contrary viewpoints. We still talk about Maulana Mashoor Azad and how releasing him was a mistake & how he created LeT or JeM. Same situation with D-Company. The chain of command & leadership succession does not seem to be very strong. This is a tailor-made opportunity for targeted assasinations of these leaders, thus crippling the organization.

b) This is a more long term approach. We need to build financial intelligence & counter-intelligence capabilities. I dont know if a department exists within the Government for this. Cash is the life-blood of these pigs. We need to track black & white money flow, have the wherewithal to intervene, print counterfeit notes for supporting our own clandestine activities in Pak, creating front companies to funnel funds to groups/individuals etc. It might help to have RAW take a "Financial Engineering 101" course from Sonia madam - for she would know all the tricks of the trade

Bhaskar · Post by **Bhaskar** » 01 Jul 2009 01:27

It would be foolish to presume that Pakistan will stop funding Anti-Indian terror in it's country.
But, what I do know about the Pakis are that they are very scared of the we Indians right now...
They are not going to even try to strike any time soon (maybe a small strike in the east).
The Pakis want Indo-Pak tensions to cool down... Once we Indians forget about 26/11 ... Pakis will start planning for another big attack, in Delhi or Mumbai. Or a huge Infiltration bid, backed by the Pak Army.

Just wait a couple of years, Pakis will strike again, even stronger this time. We Indians will point fingers towards them, give evidence, whine to the US, and if we have Manmohan Singh as the PM, then a diplomatic pressure on Pakistan, but once again, we will not militarily respond to the Pakistanis again.
Manmohan Singh needs to be taught that "Laato ke bhoot, baaton se nahi maante". Pakis will never learn till we harshly reply them militarily.

Coming to the Indian Mujahideen, we might see an attack this September/October (Festival time). It just would be a terror attack, not a Mumbai style strike, that too in a small city like nagpur, jaipur, lucknow. Pakistanis would have only funded and trained for these attacks. That's it.

We can expect a terrorist attack from Pakistan