Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

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We can expect a terrorist attack from Pakistan

Poll ended at 27 Jun 2009 09:40

Within 3 months
21
39%
Sometime in 2009
23
43%
In the next one year
8
15%
Never
2
4%
 
Total votes: 54

shiv
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by shiv »

Cross posts:

http://publication.samachar.com/pub_art ... extIndex=0
Lashkar Gulf cell planning stunning attacks on India: Report
ANI
Published on Tue 7th Jul 2009 12:50:21

The threat perception on vital installations in three coastal states Gujarat, Maharashtra and Goa has been increased manifold following intelligence reports of the banned Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) channelising huge amounts of money from its Gulf-based networks for terror strikes against the country.
According to a report in the Terrorism Monitor, a periodical published by the Virginia based Jamestown Foundation, intelligence authorities have revealed that the LeT’s marine wing is planning a repeat of the 26/11 Mumbai attack, and is on the look out for an incursion into India via the western sea-coast.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Terr ... 750731.cms
Terrorists may be using Pak sats to plot against India
8 Jul 2009, 0032 hrs IST, Diwakar, TNN

According to sources, state actors in Pakistan were seeking to help terrorist groups using Thuraya satellite phones to plot attacks on India by camouflaging the location of the phones.

The deception game, spoofing in intelligence parlance, involves setting up transmitters near the terrorist bases to block the signals from Thuraya sets which can help pinpoint location of the users. The transmitters cannot be set up or remain hidden to Pakistan's own agencies.

<snip >
During the investigation into the 26/11 attack, India got around the problem with US help to get details of satellite phones used by the perpetrators of the atrocities — LeT's Zakiur Rahman Lakhvi and others. The Americans had then used their leverage with UAE authorities to help India procure logs of the satellite phones, stored at Thuraya's Master Control Facility at Sharjah, to establish the presence of the terror masterminds on Pakistani soil.

The use of transmitters will, however, render a repeat of the success impossible, helping terrorists to mask their footprints, and Pakistan to profess innocence.
JwalaMukhi
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by JwalaMukhi »

The probability of an high profile incident inside India is very high now. The Uighur uprising, will enable the handlers of these attack dogs to run amok inside India to divert attention from People's republic.
ramana
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by ramana »

What Pak sats are they talking about or is it to mask some other country's assets like AQK khali centrifuges?
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by Samay »

Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity
It's already happening sires !!
those ones you are looking about will happen when BILATERAL ,TRACK TWO,etc,blah blah talks will start ,in 3/4 qtr of 2009 :wink:

so yes attacks will be there after monsoon :P
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by Bhaskar »

Well, looking at this news... There should have been 6 terror atrocities, equal or bigger to the mumbai attacks.
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/6-major-terr ... 672-3.html

I guess, the Police, ATS, IB and RA&W are doing a good job since 26/11.
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by AjayKK »

Tomorrow is three years to 11 July 2006 Mumbai train bombings

Mumbai : Terror threat at Andheri, Churchgate

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Citi ... 760206.cms
MUMBAI: Security was beefed up at Andheri and Churchgate railway stations on Thursday following a specific security threat from the Intelligence Bureau.
Security breach at panic station

http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news ... on/487510/
Constable Mohan Chawan on duty with AK-47 rifle and an incomplete, torn bulletproof jacket at Andheri station on Thursday. This happened during a terror alert: the Mumbai Police and Railways had increased security after the IB warned of possible terrorist attacks on the western line. The Andheri police station confirmed that they were still using old stock: padded and torn ballistic jackets without the metal panels for security. The station has a strength of over 80 cops with less than 10 bulletproof jackets. The outdated jackets, some dating back to 2004 and manufactured by Progressive Technologies, have never been used with a metal panel by the cops. After 26/11, the Chief Minister had promised to improve and increase the stock after many policemen, including former ATS chief Hemant Karkare, were injured or killed due to poor-quality jackets.
For news in pictures which shows the bulletproof jacket --

http://www.dnaindia.com/mumbai/slidesho ... rt_1272785

Also, maybe unrelated news ....
Two held with crude bombs

The police caught two men from Garden Cafe restaurant, close to Jogeshwari railway station, with four crude bombs. The bombs were as big as firecrackers and contained
gunpowder. Mohammad Hafiz Ansari and Abdul Majid Shaikh were arrested under provisions of the Explosive Substances Act. Both are Bhiwandi residents.

Link
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by enqyoob »

BLAST IN KOCHI COLLECTORATE. SEVERAL BABUS REPORTED TO HAVE SUDDENLY WOKEN UP AND GONE TO ALERT STATUS FROM ZZZZZZ STATUS!

Thiruvananthapuram: A high alert was sounded across Kerala and security beefed up after an explosion at the Kochi collectorate building on Friday evening was identified as a pipe bomb blast.

The explosion took place around 1510 hrs (IST) in the staircase leading to the fifth floor of the building. Initially it was thought to be a fire that broke out but later forensic experts inspecting the site found that that it was a pipe bomb and identified a timer, ammonium nitrate and batteries.

A man near the spot suffered minor injuries in the blast. Fortunately none of the senior officials who were supposed to be at their desks, were at work, (actually a usual situation). When asked if they had heard an explosion, none of the staff could remember hearing anything of the sort.
I have been hearing a loud sound that goes up and down periodically, like the breakers at the beach in a storm. It goes ZZZZZZZ! ZZZZZZZZZZ! ZZZZZZZZZZZ!" said one staff member who spoke on condition of anonymity
State Revenue Minister KP Rajendran who rushed to the site said that a high level inquiry would be ordered, and would report back in a mere 17 years.

After the forensic experts identified explosive materials, state Director General of Police Jacob Punnoose asked all the 14 district superintendents of police to maintain a high vigil (i.e., to stay awake for 2 hours). He left for Kochi himself.

Kerala Chief Minister VS Achuthanandan and Home Minister Kodiyeri Balakrishnan, who are both in Delhi to attend a booze-n-baksheesh party, called up the Ernakulam District Collector M Beena after being informed of the incident.
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by Atri »

Pause in talks will only benefit terrorists: Pak to India

The chances of next terrorist attack on India are increasing rapidly.. Such signs of peace are many times a sure give-away.
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by ramana »

Can we use google trends on keywords confined to local papers/media in TN or Kerala to track such atrocitices. What are the indicators of eminent atrocity which in hindsight might have predicted the act?

What is in my mind is this:

Use google trends to search for all the media in one state and its neighbors.
use keywords to narrow the search among the media.
Plot these over time.

We should see a spike in reprots which are precursors. The key is to find the right keywords.
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by AjayKK »

Maharashtra :Terror alert points to 7 state targets
The Intelligence Bureau, in its alert, warned that at least seven places in Maharashtra including a reputed bank in Mumbai and an important railway junction in Navi Mumbai could be attacked . The alert, dated July 8, also contains photographs of the seven targets .

The July 8 alert, officials said, was issued after a terror suspect was detained in Jammu and Kashmir and the police recovered photographs of targets in Maharashtra from him. The colour pictures were sent to security agencies in Maharashtra by e-mail . The photographs are genuine.

They include the picture of a reputed bank near the Bombay high court, two railway stations in Mumbai and a railway station in Navi Mumbai , an official said, adding that the Navi Mumbai station was not properly covered security-wise . Over seven million people travel by the Mumbai local trains every day.

The fresh alert, officials said, also mentioned four dates on which the terrorists planned to carry out the strikes. TOI has a list of the dates (one passed last week) and details of the targets.
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by Bhaskar »

Terror alert in western India following IB warning
http://www.ndtv.com/news/india/terror_a ... arning.php
There's a fresh warning from the Intelligence Bureau (IB) of terror attacks in the western part of India.

NDTV has a copy of the IB report dated the second week of July that says Pakistan-based terror groups are planning to target states such as Goa, Gujarat and Maharashtra.

The report warns that Laskar-e-Toiba will attack prominent industrial locations and tourist spots.

And Goa could be a target during peak tourist season between September and February. The report has been forwarded to the Goa CID.

Indian associates of Jihadi groups have been asked to procure mechanised boats for transporting weapons.

LeT has also identified their possible hideouts. Specifically Mandvi in Maharashtra and north of Koteshwar port in Gujrat.

Another intelligence report contains photographs of the seven targets in Mumbai. These photographs were with a man who was caught in Jammu and Kashmir.
^^^ AjayKK's post
Another intelligence report contains photographs of the seven targets in Mumbai
ramana
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by ramana »

Both could be from PTI? Common source except the added spice of exclusive pictures by both TOI and NDTV.
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by Bhaskar »

^^^ You think both TOI and NDTV spiced the news up???
Then you haven't looked at the IBN Live version of it...
http://ibnlive.in.com/videos/97224/watc ... alert.html
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by SSridhar »

Gagan
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by Gagan »

Well well well.
Pakistan is doing what it does best. It is blackmailing India.
Apparently India is pausing the talks. And this pausing of talks by India makes the chances that a terror attack may take place.

Why? Why should a pause incite a terror attack?

It is because the pakistanis have demanded some thing from India, and GoI is dithering.

Unless someone proves otherwise, I am certain that the pakistanis have formally asked for Kasab or some other high profile terrorist. Not delivering them will cause a terror attack with hostage taking to secure his release.
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by SSridhar »

I think that Pakistan has seriously squeezed India's unmentionables that we have capitulated at Sharam-el-Sheikh. The joint statement talks of real-time sharing of terror-related information between India and Pakistan. This is complete surrender because India seems to have exhausted all options against Pakistan now. It tried Op Parakram, it tried coercive diplomacy through other countries, it tried stalling the peace dialogue, it suspended flights from PIA, closed down its consulate in Krachi, suspended trade, delayed appointing a replacement for its ambassador etc etc. Nothing worked. As a last resort, it has fallen at the feet of its implacable enemy. What will India do now after the next terrorist attack, which is only a matter of time ? Can we plumb any deeper ?
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by Dilbu »

Even when his country's two major cities are under alert for a terror attack from the very same TSP, MMS has the gall to talk about cooperation and piss with the same entity. Just brilliant! :-?
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by AjayKK »

Maybe MMS sahab is the new Gujral . Peacefully playing golf while the nation burns. Only difference would be tenure of current sahab is much more than earlier sahab, so damage is vast. How long before the Pakistani goes home and says " India has resolved to solve all problems including the issue of Kashmir" ?

Btw, what happened to the argument that "the giant wheels of Indian babudom move in Chanakian action that we cannot see but only sense " :?:

Meanwhile,
Information Technology (IT) parks in Chennai have come under tight security following intelligence alerts that Pakistan- based terror outfit Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) was planning to carry out attacks in Chennai.
.
According to Intelligence reports, there was a possibility of an attack on the major railway stations and IT firms in Chennai similar to the Mumbai terror attack on 26 November last. The alert was sounded based on a revelation by a militant arrested in Jammu recently.

http://newstodaynet.com/newsindex.php?i ... 0section=7
SSridhar
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by SSridhar »

AjayKK wrote:
Information Technology (IT) parks in Chennai have come under tight security following intelligence alerts that Pakistan- based terror outfit Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) was planning to carry out attacks in Chennai.
I strongly believe that the next attack is more than likely at Chennai. Somehow, it has escaped so far.
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by shiv »

SSridhar wrote: I strongly believe that the next attack is more than likely at Chennai. Somehow, it has escaped so far.

This can't be dismissed as idle speculation - but the vast and repeated attacks in some places - particularly Mumbai and Delhi reek of an underworld nexus with assets on the ground in India. MMS is welcome to sing ghazals or even do a salsa with Gilani but one more attack and he and his madam and their newly elected courtiers will have to be made to pay for inaction.

I hope they understand - and I hope the understanding that their asses will be set on fire has sunk in deep enough to be conveyed to Porkistan. Unkil, and their flied lice and Pork-eating dogs in the country next door.
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by shyamd »

Chennai was meant to be the target along with BLR last year, but Porki's cancelled in last minute. So, we are to assume that the cell in chennai still exists, although police in TN are very good at their job, last year, Coimbatore police was able to stop a major attack, just before they went operational.
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by derkonig »

shiv wrote: MMS is welcome to sing ghazals or even do a salsa with Gilani but one more attack and he and his madam and their newly elected courtiers will have to be made to pay for inaction.
Nothing of that sort will happen. The same old ineptitude will be put up on show via the statements of condemnation, urge to maintain 'communal' harmony and 'India will not bow to these terrorists'. The dhimmedia will light kkkandles, hold vigils, and spin away any anti-govt. sentiment as anger against the establishment ala 26/11.
Nothing will change as long as the traitors are in power. MMS will continue to sleep soundly, security forces will continue to take the bullets, BJP, true to its Indic roots, will continue to raise the national security concerns and get pink chaddies in return, and the general public will continue to remain doped on sekoolaarism.
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by Dilbu »

MMS is welcome to sing ghazals or even do a salsa with Gilani but one more attack and he and his madam and their newly elected courtiers will have to be made to pay for inaction.
What happened to MMS govt after the 26/11 'inaction'? The general public does not even demand accountability, let alone making them pay for inaction. The politicians are well aware of it now and it suits them just fine to play to the WKK gallery while laughing all the way to the nearest swiss bank.
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by shravan »

I had already voted for Within 3 months. And now i will bet on Gujarat.
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by Chinmayanand »

How about an attack on Chennai via sea-route from Bangladesh ?Or maybe some other city on East-coast.
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by shravan »

Police arrest 4 SIMI members

Maharashtra police on Monday (July 20) arrested four members of the banned Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) in Mana village, Akola district. Sayyed ibrahim, Abdul Razzak and Maqsud Mehboob Khan were arrested while trying to flee in an Indica car, before they were intercepted.

Meanwhile, the four arrested SIMI activists will be produced in a local court.

---

It has to be Gujarat.
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by RamaY »

Now that we have conducted a Harakiri at Sharm-el- Sheikh, I predict there will be no terrorist attack from TSPA for next 6 months. Why would TSPA need non-state actors to do a terror attack on India when Indian PM himself is doing thier work for them.

The next terror attack will happen if and when MMS retracts his statement and does a U-turn.
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by shravan »

RamaY wrote:Why would TSPA need non-state actors to do a terror attack on India
To increase the tensions so that PA can focus on India.
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by RamaY »

shravan wrote:
RamaY wrote:Why would TSPA need non-state actors to do a terror attack on India
To increase the tensions so that PA can focus on India.
Shravan-ji :D

That is conventional wisdom. Look beyond the smoke and mirrors...

For example:
If TSPA really really wants to move their forces to Eastern Border and need a confirmed IA action following a spectacular Terror Attack in heartland India, then it automatically makes TSPA's interests incompatible with Unkil's.

They why is Unkil arm twisting India on so many other fronts to protect TSPA's interests?
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by shravan »

RamaY wrote: If TSPA really really wants to move their forces to Eastern Border and need a confirmed IA action following a spectacular Terror Attack in heartland India, then it automatically makes TSPA's interests incompatible with Unkil's.

They why is Unkil arm twisting India on so many other fronts to protect TSPA's interests?
I could not understand what you are trying to say... :oops:
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by ramana »

Last night Telugu news channel TV9 had a special on ammonium nitrate availability in India and its usage by terrorists. Apparently all the imported AN comes to Vizag port and is in bulk like huge piles. It gets bagged by manual labor(no gloves, no shoes, and no safety stuff) and then is trucked everywhere in India. From the report there could be many leakages all along the way. And somehow the stuff imported is the pure variety and doesnt have any added humidifying agents.

And five kg in a metal pot can do a lot of damage. It was used in B'lore, Hyd., and someother place. They had lot of pots and cookers.

So the modus operandi is to use AN and some other component and a stick of commercial explosive and its fuse in a metal pot. The last two are from mining industry. All local stuff to avoid tracebility.


Also plastic can be traced to TSP more often then not.
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by shiv »

Hearty congratulations for those who got the prediction right. f course every year we read news that the LeT/HuM etc promise to conduct at least one spectacular attack so that India does not forget. This may only be the foreplay.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/NEWS ... 846771.cms
Attacks shatter year-long lull in Valley, 2 killed
M Saleem Pandit, TNN 2 August 2009, 01:35am IST

SRINAGAR: A seeming calm was shattered in the Kashmir valley on Saturday when after a lull of one year militants struck in the heart of Srinagar
and in two separate incidents killed two security personnel. The shootouts also carried the grim reminder that Pakistan-sponsored terror hasn't disappeared from the Valley -- the attack is suspected to have been carried out by Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), the same murderous outfit that carried out the 26/11 attacks.

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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by pgbhat »

:x
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by shiv »

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/news ... 854206.cms
NEW DELHI: Pakistan’s widespread jihadi network of anti-India groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed could be readying for renewed
activity after a period of relative quiet as new camps and routes are used to launch strikes at Indian targets.

In the face of post 26/11 international pressure Pakistan imposed a clampdown of sorts on jihadi groups usually at the forefront of attacks in Jammu & Kashmir and elsewhere. This coincided with the successful use of border control technology like electrified fences, ground sensors and heat-detecting night vision devices.

<snip>

Sources tracking terrorist movements in Pakistan point out that apart from arrests of a few persons linked with 26/11, there was no real action against LeT or Jaish. Some camps had been relocated and new routes were being used for dispersal of armed jihadis. The determination of infiltrators who took on the hostile weather to cross the LoC earlier this year also indicated that there was no slackening of intent.

It is felt that Pakistan’s military-ISI complex is not currently engaged in scuttling incipient attempts to re-start the India-Pakistan dialogue.

It is felt that ISI could manage that almost any time it wanted to by staging a terror strike of much lesser proportions than Mumbai. But ISI did have a bunch of restive jihadi outfits on its hands even as the Pakistan army reluctantly targets the Taliban on its western border.

There is a sense that Lashkar and Jaish may launch attacks below the “threshold” that will attract severe international condemnation. With US now engaged in a high-stakes operation in Afghanistan following the review ordered by the Obama administration and India’s diplomatic options also affected by the law of diminishing returns, the traction for New Delhi’s concerns was limited.
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Re: Predicting and forestalling the next terrorist atrocity

Post by shravan »

Be prepared for fresh terror strikes: PM

New Delhi: The government has information of "an ongoing ploy of terrorist groups in Pakistan" preparing to strike India again, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said Monday while stressing that cross border terrorism continued to be a major threat.
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by ramana »

A few things to think about.

TSP khaata(account):
- Economy in doldrums needing massive money from US
- TTP etc taking over the lands west of Indus
- Constant religious inspired terrorism all over the country
- Military can't fight the insurgents as it fears India will take advantage
- Floods devastate 40% of land area and over 10M people homeless
- Relief works show TSP incapacity despite massive funds transfusion atleast since 9/11
- India is shining despite best efforts to stoke the million muitinies

India khaata (account)
- Mumbai terrorist attack is past the consciousness
- On the way to economic stardom. US now has India specific anti labor quotas
- Getting ready to host Commonwealth Games to show case Indian achievments
- The fake intefada in Kashmir failed
- Space launch power


What does a Paki general do to hisab chukaana or settle account?

Please think like a Paki and come up with all the scenarios they can come up with.

PS: How many saw a Telugu movie "Krishna Deva Raya" with NTR starring? There is a scene of the Bahmani Sultan's courtiers plotting to reduce his viabhavam. Somehow that scene keeps coming back t me.
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by Lalmohan »

i think this exposes the deeper racist malaise within pakistan. the RAPE are self-asserted TFTA turks and afghans and arabs (if not white). the peasants are SDRE converts. therefore being RAPE is all about the continuation of the conquering invader mentality. therefore everything is about the preservation of the former to the detriment of the latter, which ofcourse enjoys heavenly sanction, regardless of the religion of the peasants

sickos
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by brihaspati »

Two possible moves by Pak:

(a) Use the floods to try and raise the issue of water management and how big-bad India is out to get Pak - basically try to extract money from India as compensation for supposed Indian perfidy about northern rivers. It could be a more intense version of the BD internal political position of certain sections. Here they virtually demand that India gives all the water BD need in dry periods and control all the excess flood water in over-precipitation. For Pak, this may mean that they try to bring an international third party dominated structure to intervene or make it a permanent structure to intrude on both sides - a kind of one more leverage point from its "friends" if possible to bring whatever pressure is possible on India. It is not really about water but water as a tool of political skullduggery.

(b) Precipitate a war with India to escape the dilemma of the "western front" (not to kill but to kill - Talebs) and focus public anger away from floods and its consequences to raising the spectre of a higher "existential" threat. But they will need to find a good excuse to do so. It can be ultimate brinkmanship of threatening war but not having in reality to go to war. Not sure how it can be pulled off on the ground.
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by Aditya_V »

(b) Precipitate a war with India to escape the dilemma of the "western front" (not to kill but to kill - Talebs) and focus public anger away from floods and its consequences to raising the spectre of a higher "existential" threat. But they will need to find a good excuse to do so. It can be ultimate brinkmanship of threatening war but not having in reality to go to war. Not sure how it can be pulled off on the ground.
Very Simple mastermind a Mumbai type terrorist attack against India especially with the Common wealth games, Kill 2 Birds with 1 stone
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by KrishG »

brihaspati wrote: (b) Precipitate a war with India to escape the dilemma of the "western front" (not to kill but to kill - Talebs) and focus public anger away from floods and its consequences to raising the spectre of a higher "existential" threat. But they will need to find a good excuse to do so. It can be ultimate brinkmanship of threatening war but not having in reality to go to war. Not sure how it can be pulled off on the ground.
Wouldn't a direct confrontation with India, even a short-one, would not be something TSPA would want for the time being considering a continuing bad monsoon followed by winter which would limit their capabilities and to a certain extent their preoccupation with flood relief ?

It would be really interesting to know how the capabilities of TSPA (especially PAF) are/would be affected during this bad monsoon season.
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