A Possible Kashmir Solution - III
Airavat wrote:RajeshA,
If history is any guide, these Hindus and Sikhs from Pakistan, will be settled not in the Kashmir region of J&K State but in Jammu.
In 1947 Hindus and Sikhs were massacred and the rest driven out from the Muzzafrabad-Mirpur belt of the J&K princely state by the Pakistani invaders. Muzzafrabad was part of the Kashmir province but the communal Sheikh Abdullah refused to let them settle down in Kashmir and they were forcibly pushed down to Jammu. The others from places like Kotli, Rawlakot, and Mirpur, which were all part of Jammu region, in any case made a beeline for Jammu.
But what is even more shocking is that after 60 years these refugees have ZERO rights in their own state:
Airavat ji,
I appreciate your bringing some historical facts into focus on this issue. But I hope, that we do not make history into a guide here. I hope, we can break out of this mold where we think neither strategically nor empathize with other Indics in trouble, thinking that either they are by nature less troublesome, nor would they be making too much trouble for the state they identify themselves with. As such trouble-making minorities always get a sympathetic ear.
We can only make some suggestions here, which we believe can be helpful in healing some of India's strategic trouble-spots. We can hardly say or do anything, which can make the Indian 'leaders' think or act differently, give them a conscience, a nationalistic outlook, some courage.
There is however some rationale to think that knowing how they are, the Indian politicians could think differently on this issue:
I don't know how many of these refugees from PoK came into India, but I presume their numbers were not such to make a big dent in the composition of the local populace. The local Muslim population would still have remained a majority. Any major program of settling refugees in Kashmir would not have made much of a dent, but could have agitated the local population sky-high. At that point of time, India needed the support of the Kashmiri people to make J&K's accession to India official.
The different dynamic this time would be the Collin Powell principle -
Either you don't go in, but if you go in you do it with overwhelming force. In case of ethnic engineering, this would read like - No point in changing the Kashmir population mix if one can introduce only a small number of Hindus at a time, as the reaction would be huge and ugly, but if there is a possibility to overwhelm the Kashmiri Muslims, with say 3 million Hindus over a short period of 6-8 months, then go for it.
Secondly for refugees coming from PoK Poonch etc. the closest area across the border would probably be Jammu, as was the case in 1947/1948. This time, the crossing can be somewhere else.
somnath wrote:Temptingly macho that it sounds, attempting a demographic change is easier said than done in a democratic country...To start with, we cant "force" people to migrate, or refugees to settle in Kashmir..We can only "incentivise"..Given the security situation in Kashmir, how many Hindus/Sikhs will voluntarily migrate there? And what would be the incentives required? Israelis settlers are fired by religious zeal - no such sentiment for settling in Kashmir exists among Hindus/Sikhs..
Further, for argument's sake even if we managed to attract some people to migrate, they cant obviously be settled in far spread out hamlets..We will need to create colonies/ghettos, that are substantially self contained...They would immediately be a target with a bulls eye painted for all manners of jihadi violence and quasi jihadi protesters..Which would mean that we have to set up static security around these ghettos...The last example of any "planned settlement" of a large scale that we have seen is the settlement of ex-servicemen in the Punjab plains by the British..the closest post-independence example is Chandigarh...But both these are very different cases..
an "easier" option is to create more opportunities for Kashmiris in the rest of India - most of the work for this has to be done in J&K - the Kashmiri education levels are really appalling...A greater economic engagement will result in automatically reducing the levels of alienation..
Incentive
I think there is more than sufficient incentive for the Hindus & Sikhs in Pakistan to migrate to India. It is like asking whether a dog likes a meaty bone. In Pakistan, there is systematic harassment of Hindus. There is the constant danger, that some Hindu will be blamed and even lynched for blasphemy. Their daughters are simply kidnapped and 'married' off to some goonda. They are hardly given facilities to progress in real life. Except for some exceptions used for display purposes, most of the Hindus live in poverty in Pakistan. Besides they are under constant pressure to convert, and even after conversion they probably would not be treated well.
In India, initially as a refugee they would be (let's presume) looked after well. Facilities will be provided. Food will be made available. Later on, they can hope for a brighter future, if they are willing to let themselves be educated and integrate into Indian society. Not to mention the backdrop of beautiful scenery of Kashmir!!!
Besides these realistic incentives, there can be many rumors of promises of
ghee aur shakker just across the border.
So there are enough reasons for them to want to flee/migrate.
Herding to Kashmir
In times of tension, India usually closes the borders with Pakistan. It would be considered normal if LoC crossings between Kashmir and PoK are kept open, as it is officially
"not to inconvenience the Kashmiris". India can let it be known to the Pakistani Hindus, that they would be let in into India only at the Kashmir LoC crossings, and nowhere else. If they wish to flee into India, they have to first travel to that crossing. The Pakistani Hindu community leaders can be informed of this through appropriate channels.
When to migrate
The situation in Kashmir is worsening by the day. Some day soon, the state will lose complete control over society, and Jihadi and ethnic gangs will take over. The first to suffer are always the weak. It is to be expected that the Hindus would be among the first to be targeted. We would know, when the Pakistani State has come to the tipping point, as far as governance and law and order is concerned. It is then, that India can let it be known, that Pakistani Hindus and Sikhs will be allowed in into India.
Is security situation in Kashmir a disincentive?
When the situation in Pakistan goes completely out of control, then any place on earth would be better for a Pakistani Hindu or a Pakistani Sikh. For an individual Indian Hindu or a couple of them to migrate to Kashmir may seem a scary prospect, but to a Pakistani Hindu it will be more like a picnic compared to the emerging situation in Pakistan. Besides they will be coming in groups and droves. When they arrive, there will be a sea of tents coming up in Kashmir. There is security in numbers. I think, the KMs should not underestimate the anger, that they will find in these people. So they better not fool around with them. These will be Hindus willing to hit back after years of subjugation. A Kashmiri Jihadi is hardly going to be more scary than a full Talibani Jihadi.
somnath ji,
as you pointed out, they will soon be setting up perimeter security around their tent colonies.
Besides these refugees would be organizing themselves and arming themselves. In the medium term, there is going to be conflict in Kashmir between the KMs and the refugees. But just as Sindhis and Mohajirs found a detente, so would these two groups as well.
This scenario allows the Indian Security Forces to transit into a new role. Instead of being the target of Kashmiri Muslim ire and brickbats, the security forces can become the guardians of peace between two rival groups.
In the end, there is only so much the security forces can do. They have to act within the straight-jacket of the laws of the land. The current posture of the security forces does not seem pose any threat to the KMs, so they continue with their street protests and Ajaddi demonstrations. They love to show street power. The only way to combat this street power is through a rival street power, which intimidates beyond the levels of law-enforcement agencies.
The model to be used here is really Karachi.