Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

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Neshant
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Neshant »

Watch for more protectionism linked to climate change spinning. Check out the article i posted in the climate thread. "3000 low temperature records set this July" greatly damaging the careers of global warming scientists. :mrgreen:

--------------------
Germany calls carbon tariffs "eco-imperialism"

ARE, Sweden (Reuters) - Germany called a French idea to slap "carbon tariffs" on products from countries that are not trying to cut greenhouse gases a form of "eco-imperialism" and a direct violation of WTO rules.

The issue of greenhouse tariffs has met bitter opposition from developing countries such as China and India, who count on the developed world to buy their exports as they build their economies in the face of the worst financial crisis in decades.

"We are closing our markets for their products, and I don't think this is a very helpful signal for the international negotiations."

European environment and energy ministers are meeting in Sweden to try to come up with a single vision of how the 27-member bloc will fight global warming, ahead of a major environment summit in Copenhagen.

http://www.reuters.com/article/internal ... RJ20090724
svinayak
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124856957170681503.html
Decoupling Is Real

In all of these scenarios, there is a chance that fast-growing emerging markets such as China can thrive regardless of what's going on in the U.S., Europe and Japan. This is the so-called "decoupling" theory, which lost some credibility when a sinking U.S. economy dragged the rest of the world with it.

Decoupling is still a possibility, however, in a world not in the throes of a financial crisis. It would mean faster economic growth in emerging economies, offering U.S. investors a way to make money even when conditions are still sluggish at home.

A worry for U.S. investors in these markets is that they are still loosely regulated and highly volatile, warns Chat Reynders, CEO of Reynders, McVeigh Capital Management in Boston. That's why he favors companies in developed countries that serve emerging markets -- such as Canadian National Railway, which delivers coal to China, and Sims, an Australian metal-recycling company.

Rising incomes in China, India and similar economies will be a boon to agricultural companies that improve farming efficiency, such as Deere and Monsanto.

Though it will be years before China and other emerging markets can carry the world on their shoulders, says Mr. Reynders, "growth of the middle class and the growth in infrastructure are immediate issues that have long-term viability."

The worldwide economic and money drama is being resolved through the separation of the US money system and the US economic system. International consortiums that exclude US Labor are creating the new system. Within the US, as an alternative to the previous market based economy which has failed, the Consortium of US banking, political and industrial leaders is now in control of a money system that is no longer linked to the US market or contingent on the market value of the US production economy.

US assets are no longer assessed at their market value; the ability of US economic output to compete with foreign based industry no longer drives contingencies of the money system; and US production and workers have been expunged as variables from monetarist economists’ equations regarding the health of the money system.

The previously related money system and real [production and distribution based] economic system within America, which were related by the market’s evaluation of the money value of the stream of income from the US real economy, are now two totally different systems, unrelated by the previous market contingency that the value of our money equals the value of our real economic output. The US Consortium of political, industrial and banking leadership (noticeably absent of Labor influence) is reviving the US money system without reviving the US real economy. The stress and demise of the US laborer is jawboned by contrite Consortium leaders who are unapologetic about their suffering by nobilizing it as their “sacrifice”. Indeed, the current policy is the sacrifice of the interests of US workers and the separation of their plight from the policy of restoring the money system while neglecting the US economy.

Wisdom of history dictates this policy of sacrificing the US worker will continue to occur until panic distress among workers forces their leaders in Labor to take the stage to confront the Consortium as it is currently constituted. With wages, employment and housing values still falling (the foundations of working class existence), those who consider themselves prescient based on current trends may want to predict when this panic crisis within Labor will occur – two important metrics are the unemployment rate and the longevity of unemployment with a third derived metric being their cumulative effect on the worker – e.g. that could be two years at 10% unemployment or one year at 12%. It appears the current policy of the Consortium is to allow a higher unemployment rate for a shorter amount of time, and let the recovery of the money system drive the recovery of the real US economy – which itself will be driven by the recovery of the Asian economy rather than an internally generated US recovery. Consortium timing is critical, however, and there are as yet no signs that the money system recovery will have any positive effect at all on US economic recovery – recovery in the Chinese labor market is already occurring as the US labor market continues to fail and there is no indication that the recovery of the money system in the US is at all linked with US labor market recovery. In fact, as previously discussed, the recovery of the US money system has been accomplished only because it has been unlinked from domestic economic recovery. The relationships of the US Consortium with the Chinese power consortium and to a lesser extent European and Russian power consortiums is more important to them than the American worker, and it is clear they see a world economic recovery not contingent on the success of US workers.

Can the US money system recovery be relinked with US economic recovery? That would mean again relating the value of US economic output to the value of the US dollar. At this time, the Consortium strictly wants to avoid that relationship, and continues to vie for continuing to unlink the value of US dollars to the apparent value of US assets. That means consumerism does not have to recover nor do employment and production, in order for the US money system to remain sound. The Consortium wants above all to distance itself from the plight of the American worker. That is why they have excluded Labor leaders from the decision-making power of the Consortium.

Based on current US government, industrial and banking policies, the further insulation of the US money system from the US economic system is a given. It is only a matter of time before investors trade in their dollars for the Yuan or Eurodollar, saving the irresponsible US government by leaving it indebted only in terms of worthless US dollars. The great political issue of our day is quickly becoming the support of the US government for the policies of the Consortium that exclude the interests of the US worker who is taking the brunt of the economic failure. Is this the Government of the People, by the People and for the People? Only if workers are not considered People.

The fat cats are now investing in this scenario in hyperinflation hedge funds. I.e. dollar devaluation takes on the characteristic of wage and asset inflation within the US, allowing US workers eventually to return to work albeit at lower wages relative to the rest of the world, and restoring the value of their homes in US dollars. It all works out for the fat cats.
The rich in America will be richer. The workers will again be solvent, living a lower quality of life with lower life expectancy, unable to afford foreign products, but life will go on. The poor will be poorer.

The credibility of US propaganda, especially in America, will be absolutely devastated. In the end, this ultimate sacrifice of US government power for the world will be its greatest moment of glory, as it transcends time into martyr’s heaven. Everything will appear better. The crisis will be over. Asian economies will rule. The rich in America will become the lackeys of Asia, and American workers will be further isolated from power in their own country.

http://pacificgatepost.blogspot.com/200 ... alism.html
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by satya »

PRC can not & will never have a Social Security System funded in any possible way. Should that happen how can PRC will continue with its subsidized interest rate regime providing capital almost free of cost to SOEs ? There's only x amount of money available & a fraction could be pulled via printing press ( already in work ) , given fact families don't have any assets worth the name be it gold or land ( Mao took former , later all state's errrr people's property to be shareddddddd )& let's not even talk about PRC Real Estate Mkt . But i guess making a statement about a possible solution sometime in future do count as 'action taken' or 'action in progress' for 'Stock Mkt' to rise in US .

Let me make a wild prediction here today : Race is on btw TSP & PRC on who will implode first . Chances are together after all they are friends ................
Hari Seldon
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Hari Seldon »

Hello everybody.

Saw the comments made about the contrarian behavior of the equity markets in the face of persistent sad news from the real economy. A cynic might say it smacks of market manipulators (soon-to-be shorters) running a suckers rally, only that this time the rally need run a little longer than usual because the suckers aren't biting as readily as they used to. Hey, just my 2 paise, take FWIW.

Here is an interesting take on the algorithm of mkt manipulation.
Want to engineer a rally behind the scenes? It's easy:

1. Kick-start a rally with massive buying at the open of the market day. Counter every bout of selling with massive buying of futures, and then "paint the tape" with more buying in the last 15 minutes. Then buy thousands of futures contracts at higher bids in the after market to set expectations that the rally will continue the following day.

2. As everyone who holds bets that the market would decline (shorts) has to buy back the stock they shorted, then this adds buyers (albeit reluctant ones) which further boosts the "Bull rally."

3. Do this for 10 days in a row, so the MSM can make fawning comparisons to previous "bull runs" in previous "Bull markets."

4. Identify key "technical signals" and then trigger them so the MSM can pump up this "proof that the Bear is dead and the recession is over." Recently, there was a frenzy of MSM coverage of the "bullish cross" in which (on at least some charts) the moving averages crossed in a "we're going higher" signal.

Other "buy" signals which have recently been triggered include "a new yearly high" for all the indices and a "Dow Theory Buy" as the Dow Transports and the Dow Industrials both logged new annual highs.

Seen in this light, sparking a Bullish frenzy is like taking candy from a baby. And most amazingly, it doesn't take much money to do so because the leverage offered by futures contracts and high-frequency trading is so extreme.

Take a look at this chart of the DJIA. Note that every indicator is bullish except for one: volume.
link

Hari
svinayak
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by svinayak »

Are you Hari Seldon from the foundation
Hari Seldon
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Hari Seldon »

Taking stock of the newly destitute
How bad is it out there? As bad as it gets, if Simon Community Northern Ireland has an accurate picture. When Carol O’Brien of Simon’s Northern Ireland branch used the word “destitution” at a Simon Communities of Ireland (SCI) event this week, she was well aware of its potency. It was a word that harked back to another era, the era of poverty described in Angela’s Ashes by the late Frank McCourt, she noted, but she was struck by how often it had cropped up in conversation with colleagues and others in the past 12 to 18 months: “Destitution, unfortunately, is coming and creeping through society in an insidious way,” she said.

So have we come to this? “It’s not a word we’d be using regularly here in Simon Communities Ireland,” says Patrick Burke, chief executive of the island-wide Simon federation. “We are more inclined to use the term ‘poverty’ or ‘consistent poverty’ which is the Government’s approved poverty measure, developed by the ESRI. As far as we are aware, there is not a great difference in the situations of people contacting the Simon service north or south of the Border.”
I clearly remember this fawning BBC documentary about how Ireland was attracting some $5000 per capita in FDI a few short yrs ago. Wonder why all is quite on the Icelandic front. Saw a report on life after the collapse there. Not pretty, to be sure. Life after default can be dark indeed.

The word destitution instinctively takes one to the filthy streets of the city of Joy or the slums of Mumbai (after Slumdog's valiant efforts) but that kind of destitution is *not* what is being referred to here. Semantics can really matter, sometimes.
The over-arching feeling, however, is that quietly but surely, many people are edging in that direction. “There hasn’t been a huge increase in the obviously destitute,” says a successful Dublin 4 businessman with a long-standing involvement in various charities. “But there certainly has been an increase in the secretly destitute . . . There is the secret destitution of people living in hell, in houses they can’t pay for; people who have set up lifestyles they can’t sustain, who are facing ruin, who have absolutely nothing and nowhere to turn . . . It’s more a destitution of hope, of prospects. It’s not the begging in the streets kind . . . This is new.


And it is every educated middle classers worst nightmare. It could happen to any of us. That is why it is so truly terrifying, I guess.
SCI agrees. “There are those people whose homelessness or risk of homelessness is hidden – they are staying with friends and relatives, sofa-surfing, borrowing to pay rent or mortgage, not in contact with services and supports. When they can no longer stay with friends or relatives or borrow more money for rent etc, they will turn to homeless services,” said Patrick Burke. “It can take some time before people define and classify themselves as homeless due to reluctance and/or lack of knowledge about where to turn for support.

Therefore, the impact of the current economic situation will not result in an immediate marked increase in the numbers of people who are homeless but will be slower and must be monitored over the longer term.”

A social welfare official says firmly: “It’s bad out there. Really bad. People may not be in danger of starving but there are plenty who have seen a really drastic change in their circumstances. Their homes are threatened, their cars have been repossessed, their furniture has been repossessed. For seven or eight years up to a year ago, people lived in a culture of no-tomorrow, of plastic money, of lending institutions firing money around willy-nilly and now reality is beginning to bite.

“And I can tell you, it’s causing untold stress, hardship and disharmony . . . Two or three years ago, these people were concerned with where they’d go on their fourth or fifth holiday, now they’re concerned about the next bill coming through the door. Look at the increase in unemployment numbers and people claiming social welfare benefits – that has a snowball effect inside the home, believe me.”
Its a long and saddening read. And its heading the way of much of Europe within the next few years, I think.

P.S. added later.
Happy to say I was wrong about Iceland.
Link
They're doing mighty fine, apparently.
Last edited by Hari Seldon on 28 Jul 2009 00:16, edited 1 time in total.
Hari Seldon
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

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Wall Street Journal carries an interview with Jim O’ Neill of Goldman Sachs on the BRIC resilience. The four BRIC countries collectivley contribute to 15% of global GDP, 5% more than what Goldman Sachs first predicted in 2002, for the end of the decade. More here.

Iin the PEW Annual Global Attitudes Survey, American President gets high marks around the world. Interestingly, in the context of BRIICs (second I stands for Indonesia), excepting in Russia (where it has plunged), a higher percentage of survey respondents rate their national economy better in India, Indonesia, China and Brazil than they did in 2008. Turkey could be added (a marginal improvement) to this list. But, in every other country surveyed, people are gloomier about their national economic prospects. [More here].

What are stock markets smoking?
Thats from Ananta Nageshwaran - a gent who likely knows what he is talking about in matters economic.

link
Hari Seldon
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Hari Seldon »

US debt clock animation

A similar effort highlighting bad loans in PRC state owned banks would be instructive in puncturing the veneer of shock-awe-invincibility that they have built up over the ages.

And yes, a similar effort over India's own unfunded obligations, burgeoning deficits and raked up debts in local currency can be mighty instructive too.

The software and animation part is doable, the data input is where the crux lies.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

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From another forum - very worthwhile read:
Ben's objective is to kick the can down the road just long enough for JPM and GS to make their last big pops. He is only buying time before the major blow off in the Main Street economy occurs.

Bernanke is enabling the stock market to follow the same path as did the Auction Rate Securities (ARS) market. Having almost suffered great losses from the auction rate securities crash, I learned its lesson. The ARS market, which consisted of muni bond SIVs, that were auctioned every 7 and 21 days to generate higher yields than the actual long term bond yields, was run by the same prime dealer (PDs) that run the front running, programmed trading that is now responsible for 70% of the NYSE's volume.

The PDs propped up the ARS market when there weren't enough real bidders. The day they stopped propping up that market, by bidding and buying, was the day the market crashed. Investors, who had their money tied up in that market, found it frozen. Many took huge haircuts.

These same PDs, the strongest being Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan, are propping up a US stock market that would otherwise fail for lack of real investor buying. They have the banking industry owned, business press (CNBC-GE, Bloomberg-ML/BAC, etc), pimping for them. The day the PDs stop running their leveraged buys will be the day the stock market crashes. Presently, they have run the market up enough to convince those institutions, that had their investment money on the sidelines in low yielding Treasuries or money markets, to buy back into the stock market for greater yields. When enough sucker money has entered the market to have run the prices to their apexes, the PDs will pull out. They will probably short the market at the same time. After all the bonus money has been paid out to the big banks, and the insiders' stock options have been exercised and their shares have been sold off, the real investor money, still left in the market, will get to re-experience the March, 2009 scenario.

When it comes to gains, the foreign stock markets are well out in front of the US market. They may suffer an even more severe crash. It is ironic that the Chinese Government's stimulus money is fueling China's speculative stock market rather than fueling its economy. This, too, will end badly for all of Asia when the US market crashes. The US economy has already crashed.
Hari Om Hari.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

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Real Yields Highest Since 1994 Aid Record Debt Sales

-
The highest inflation-adjusted yields in 15 years are helping provide the Treasury with record demand at auctions as the U.S. prepares to sell $115 billion of notes this week.

Treasuries are the cheapest relative to inflation since 1994 after consumer prices fell 1.4 percent in June from a year earlier. The real yield, or the difference between rates on government securities and inflation, for 10-year notes was 5.10 percent today, compared with an average of 2.74 percent over the past 20 years.

The gap helps explain why investors are buying bonds after losing 4.8 percent this year, the steepest decline on record, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes that date back to 1978.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

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US Vice President Biden hits nerve in Russia
MOSCOW -- An interview U.S. Vice President Joe Biden gave to an American newspaper was front-page news Monday in Moscow, where his characterization of Russia as a weakened nation hit a raw nerve.

Biden said Russia's economic difficulties are likely to make the Kremlin more willing to cooperate with the United States on a range of national security issues.

"I think we vastly underestimate the hand that we hold," he said in an interview to The Wall Street Journal published Saturday.

Biden's comments appeared to catch the Kremlin by surprise, coming less than three weeks after President Barack Obama said on a visit to Moscow that the U.S. wants to see a "strong, peaceful and prosperous Russia."
No doubt GOTUS sincerely believes they underestimate their leverage with New Delhi as well.
Moskovsky Komsomolets said Biden, with his "boorish openness," showed what the Obama administration really thinks about Russia. "We should respond to the Yankees in the same way," the newspaper wrote. "Any other language, unfortunately or fortunately, they do not understand."

The papers jumped on Biden's comments about Russia's demographic and economic problems.

"They have a shrinking population base, they have a withering economy, they have a banking sector and structure that is not likely to be able to withstand the next 15 years, they're in a situation where the world is changing before them and they're clinging to something in the past that is not sustainable," Biden said in the interview.
Always nicer to have boorish openness than Chinese inscrutability.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

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x-posting

Dinno where else to post these. From another forum, a set of mighty interesting quotes indeed.
"The powers of financial capitalism had another far reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements, arrived at in frequent private meetings and conferences. The apex of the system was the Bank for International Settlements in Basle, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the worlds' central banks which were themselves private corporations. The growth of financial capitalism made possible a centralization of world economic control and use of this power for the direct benefit of financiers and the indirect injury of all other economic groups." Tragedy and Hope: A History of The World in Our Time (Macmillan Company, 1966,) Professor Carroll Quigley of Georgetown University

"The Council on Foreign Relations is the American branch of a society which originated in England ... [and] ... believes national boundaries should be obliterated and one-world rule established." Dr. Carroll Quigley

"I know of this network because I have studied it for twenty years and was permitted for two years in the early 1960s to examine its papers and secret records. I have no aversion to it or to most of its aims and have, for much of my life, been close to it and to many of its instruments. I have objected, both in the past and recently, to a few of its policies ... but in general my chief difference of opinion is that it wishes to remain unknown, and I believe its role in history is significant enough to be known."

-Dr. Carroll Quigley, Tragedy and Hope
"As a teenager, I heard John Kennedy's summons to citizenship. And then, as a student, I heard that call clarified by a professor I had named Carroll Quigley."President Clinton, in his acceptance speech for the Democratic Party's nomination for president, 16 July 1992
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

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The President Obama is coming into office at a moment when there is upheaval in many parts of the world simultaneously," Kissinger responded. "You have India, Pakistan; you have the jihadist movement. So he can't really say there is one problem, that it's the most important one. But he can give new impetus to American foreign policy partly because the reception of him is so extraordinary around the world. His task will be to develop an overall strategy for America in this period when, really, a new world order can be created. It's a great opportunity, it isn't just a crisis." Henry Kissinger at the New York Stock Exchange, January 2009

"We are on the verge of a global transformation. All we need is the right major crisis and the nations will accept the New World Order." -David Rockefeller

"We shall have world government, whether or not we like it. The question is only whether world government will be achieved by consent or by conquest." -James R. Warburg , Council On Foreign Relations
http://forums.myspace.com/p/4011947/621 ... s.viewpost

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAaQNACwaLw
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Satya_anveshi »

Insiders are selling
Commentary: Corporate insiders more bearish than at any time in nearly two years
But, first, the data.

Corporate insiders are a company's officers, directors and largest shareholders. They are required to report to the SEC whenever they buy or sell shares of their companies, and various research firms collect and analyze those transactions.

One is the Vickers Weekly Insider Report, published by Argus Research. In their latest issue, received Monday afternoon, Vickers reported that the ratio of insider selling to insider buying last week was 4.16-to-1, the highest the ratio has been since October 2007.

I don't need to remind you that the 2002-2007 bull market topped out that month.

To be sure, the weekly insider data can be volatile, especially during periods like the summer, in which the overall volume of insider transactions can be quite light. That is one of the reasons why Vickers also calculates an eight-week average of the insider sell-to-buy ratio, and it currently stands at 2.69-to-1. That's the highest that this eight-week ratio has been since November 2007.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

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^I have no doubt that this time's stock rally is fishy and highly manipulated.

Meanwhile, the venerated Times reports British pensioners are among the poorest in the EU.
Britain's pensioners have the fourth highest level of poverty in Europe, according to figures published today by the European Commission.

The over 65’s in Britain are, on average, worse off than their counterparts in Romania, Poland and France.

The research, which compared relative poverty in the 27 member states, showed nearly one in three UK over-65s were at risk of poverty - the same proportion as in Lithuania (30 per cent).

Only pensioners in Cyprus (51 per cent), Latvia (33 per cent), and Estonia (33 per cent) came out worse. The EU average was 19 per cent.

The figures came ahead of the work and pension committee's review of government efforts to tackle pensioner poverty, which is due to be published on Thursday.

Michelle Mitchell, charity director for Age Concern and Help the Aged, said the report demonstrated that many older people were being left behind.

"In a country where the richest have incomes five times higher than the poorest, older people are disproportionately bearing the burden of this inequality," she said.

Steve Webb, the Liberal Democrat Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary, blamed the Labour Party for failing to address poverty in old age. He said: “The basic state pension is simply too little to live on for the millions of pensioners who have no other income. Labour’s complex and undignified system of means-tested benefits has meant that many pensioners do not even claim the extra help that they are entitled to.

“We need a more generous, universal pension based on citizenship that would give pensioners a sense of dignity and a stable income in retirement.”

The EU study found pensioners in the Czech Republic were least likely to be living in poverty, with 5per cent below the threshold of an income of 60per cent of the national median.
Something doesn't add up here. UK is/was (hard to tell, eh?) the seat of glorious empire - one on which the sun never set.

How is it even possible that this greatest of the great, Great Britain itself, can be worse off in any socioeconomic indicator than the likes of nobodies like Poland and Romania? Like I said, doesn't add up only.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

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From Zero Hedge Today - Florida CRE (Commercial Real Estate) Implosion:

slideshow link
I took a drive this evening from 5.30 pm - 7.30 pm and shot over 200 pictures of Florida real estate in crisis. What is really amazing if you notice the time and date on each picture . I was able to shoot a picture about every 45 seconds while all alone driving in traffic including stopping for traffic lights and gas and parking in a safe place each time for each shot . Everywhere you turn something is for lease or rent.

All these headlines in the media dont seem to have any effect on people so here is one road in one town ( out of thousands ) in Fort Lauderdale Florida up to Pompano Beach ( about 8 miles ) I pretty much only shot the right side of the street because I did not want to do any u turns . Some pics I shot across the street . This does not even include office buildings .

There is something for lease or rent in almost every single plaza or strip mall without exception . I also missed a lot more because of traffic and buildings set back from the street. This does not even include offices , homes , condos etc, this is just stuff abandoned or had a sign in front of it and I missed a LOT of signs . This is not even all the empty lots that sit because the developer abandoned the project after buying up the whole neighborhood .

This is Fort Lauderdale Florida . The Gold Coast , The Venice of America the Yachting capital of the world folks.The pictures start at the Fort lauderdale beach on Sunrise Blvd. and go west to federal Highway ( rte 1 ) north to Pompano Beach about 8 miles and finish in a random warehouse district off the main road . After that it got dark and I had to stop .

You will see Exotic car dealerships Burger King, Wendys , Fuddruckers , Hooters , Pier one , furniture stores , restaurants , clubs boat dealers, Business that have been there 20 + years , Supermarkets , Saks 5th avenue ( big white building in beginning ) Macks groves , Flaming Pit , the old 50's diner . A Ford dealer and a Dodge dealer . A golf course in beginning of slideshow . All GONE in just one 8 mile strip . Folks this is the good side of town with the money I did not even go to the other side of the tracks or to other streets just one !!!
Open secret that after the housing implosion (residential realty), credit card debt and Commercial RE were the next big bums to go PHUT. The slideshow is sobering only.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by svinayak »

Some Indian business people are visiting Khanland to see some CRE opportunities.

I keep waiting for reality to hit and every day the markets trend higher. Today was the first day I can recall where clients contacted me and voiced their growing frustration about 'being in cash' - (I was lucky enough to be about 80% cash during the peak to valley.. but missed the March to July rally). I get the sense that if things don't follow through and get ugly soon.. I'm going to hemmorage clients in the next 6 months.. as other brokers boast of making a 'killing' on those same stocks that we all 'used to think' were bankrupt. I will freely admit I hate my job right now.. I read Rosie.. I see the writing on the wall and am trying to do the right thing but the f*ing market just keeps defying gravity - it blows.. ya know?

hard to feel comfortable trading when you can see the 'real economy' - kinda like someone wasting time running around the Titanic grabbing wallets from the state rooms as the ship goes down - I'm the guy saying, 'dude.. look at the bigger picture.. you need to focus on being safe.. not dicking around trying to pick up a couple of bucks..'

anyhow.. thx TD for all of the great info.. you guys rock.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/ ... ession.pdf



http://www.zerohedge.com/node/11119
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Hari Seldon »

Arizona May Sell State Capitol Building To Balance Budget
Call it a sign of desperate times: Legislators are considering selling the House and Senate buildings where they've conducted state business for more than 50 years.

Dozens of other state properties also may be sold as the state government faces its worst financial crisis in a generation, if not ever. The plan isn't to liquidate state assets, though.

{Recalled ol' jokes about thugs selliing away the Taj mahal/Gateway of India to some phoren tourists. Could soon come true, dutifully stranger than fiction, in the khanate, seems like. Sure, the perfunctory noises about 'the plan isn't to liquidate' circulate about, once the first olive is ooutta the bottle, the rest fall easy. Kinda like GB Shaw asked Ms.Packee, "we've already established what you are, now negotiating price only'.}

Instead, officials hope to sell the properties and then lease them back over several years before assuming ownership again. The complex financial transaction would allow government services to continue without interruption while giving the state a fast infusion of as much as $735 million, according to Capitol projections.

"We've mortgaged the legislative halls," said an exasperated state Rep. Steve Yarbrough, a Chandler Republican. "That just tells you how extraordinary the times are.

"To me, it's something we're going to have to do no matter how much we find it undesirable."

Earlier this month, Republican Gov. Jan Brewer vetoed such sale/leaseback provisions along with most of the rest of a fiscal 2010 state budget plan sent to her by the Legislature.

But the provisions are expected to return as part of a GOP-led legislative budget proposal surfacing this week. Although Brewer spokesman Paul Senseman called sale/leaseback deals "one of the governor's least favorite options," he conceded the likelihood that they'll play a key role in any plan to close a state shortfall estimated at $3.4 billion.

"This is the predicament we find ourselves in," said Tom Manos, a Brewer budget adviser. "We've exhausted the better options."

State properties now being considered for sale and leaseback include the House and Senate buildings, the Phoenix and Tucson headquarters of the Arizona Department of Public Safety, the State Hospital and the state fairgrounds, according to a document obtained by The Arizona Republic. Some prison facilities also are under consideration.

In total, the list comprises 32 properties that, if built from the ground up, come with a combined replacement value in excess of $1 billion.

Under the most recent legislative proposal, the state would seek a series of lease arrangements spanning as much as 20 years. Deals that would generate the targeted $735 million in revenue would mean state lease payments totaling $60 million to $70 million a year, according to budget analysts.

House Majority Leader John McComish called the payments preferable to a tax increase, as proposed by Brewer, or alternative fiscal schemes such as selling future income from state Lottery sales in exchange for a lump-sum payment.

{Tax increases are a mighty no-no. Kudos to khan pliticians to have learnt the lesson might fast. Maryland raised a special tax on millionaires last year and the number of millionaires filing taxes in MD dropped from 300+ to 3 this year. The John Galtish flight of capital, innovators, businesspeople and others who can from states like CA looking at further taxation as a possible i.e. inevitable prop to budget balancing is telling indeed.}

Private prisons

While the state is looking to sell and lease back selected properties, it also may try to contract out the operations of some prisons. The concessions provision is expected to be included within the new budget proposal, and legislative analysts believe it could generate as much as $100 million (on top of the sale/leaseback revenue) for state coffers. Private, for-profit prison operators would bid for the right to manage selected facilities, but the state would maintain ownership.

The concept concerns prison officials, who worry whether a private operator would be equipped and trained to handle the state's most hardened criminals. In a letter to Brewer last month, Corrections Director Charles Ryan wrote that a private operator would pay lower wages and provide less training.
P.S.
Added later: a related comment
Similar to selling buildings, Universities may choose to run off their endowment's principal.

There is an article in Vanity Fair about Ivy League schools using their endowment for operating expenses.

For example, Harvard will draw down the endowment in the amount of 5 to 10% of this year's budget:

Decline this year: Officially, projected at 30 percent, though a source told Munk the decline will actually be only 23 to 25 percent
Money-saving measures: 19 percent cut over two years to the budget of the Faculty of Arts of Sciences; 275 layoffs and more than 500 early-retirement buyouts

One commenter thinks this is a mistake. He is a lonely voice that is speaking the new reality.

http://www.vanityfair.com/online/politi ... eague.html

I think all of these very smart people are making a mistake deciding to spend part of their endowments rather than cut back enough to balance their budgets. Maybe the construction spending cuts make up the difference but I see no evidence of that in the article. Counting on the economy to grow was what got them in trouble in the first place. There is no fundamental reason that it should grow now but they are still counting on it to balance their budgets. They are all gamboling with their institutions. I suspect that they will be asking for bailouts too.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Dileep »

I heard that NRI are selling properties here in desh to pick up cheap properties in massa. A grand old colleague who recently visited his sons settled there told me that.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by ramana »

Hari, multiple ids are not allowed on BRF. Please decide which one you want to keep. Your old one was very credible.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Hari Seldon »

ramana wrote:Hari, multiple ids are not allowed on BRF. Please decide which one you want to keep. Your old one was very credible.
Not sure how one deletes/gets rid of an old handle. I assume simply stopping usage would do the trick.

- Hari
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Prem »

Dileep wrote:I heard that NRI are selling properties here in desh to pick up cheap properties in massa. A grand old colleague who recently visited his sons settled there told me that.
Then they are making mistake as its too risky. It will be very hard to dispose properties in Massaland for the new 10-15 years unless folks from " Asian" countries start buying but they are too smart to get stuck.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Bade »

Prem wrote:
Dileep wrote:I heard that NRI are selling properties here in desh to pick up cheap properties in massa. A grand old colleague who recently visited his sons settled there told me that.
Then they are making mistake as its too risky. It will be very hard to dispose properties in Massaland for the new 10-15 years unless folks from " Asian" countries start buying but they are too smart to get stuck.
Don't worry the whole world is going to buy up the developed lands of massa on firesale. There are many who would like to live in decent places even if one has to flip burgers or tandoori rotis to make a living. China could very well resettle it many millions looking for a better life. Chinese is widely spoken in USA :mrgreen: even if not understood by the majority.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Satya_anveshi »

On that note, let me reveal that I signed up for the chinese classes. Hope to pick up decent chinese/mandarin in the next 3-4 months. At least with that skill, I can hope to manage a few burger flippers if it comes to that.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Hari Seldon »

The collapse in commercial property:Towers of debt

The economist on the worst preserved secret in the realty marts of the emerged markets.
Property prices have also been badly hit. Moody’s, a rating agency, estimates that American commercial-property prices dropped by 7.6% in May alone, leaving them almost 35% below their peak in October 2007. Prices would have gone down even further had not transactions dried to a trickle (see chart). Owners are loth to sell into a falling market, although some distressed sales are occurring.


All this sounds like a replay of the downturn in the residential-property market, where easy borrowing terms allowed homebuyers to push prices to extreme levels. To add to the sense of déjà vu, property loans have also been bundled into complex financial instruments, known as commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBSs). The riskiest of these, mainly those issued between 2005 and 2007, are now running into trouble.
Expect more drip drip trickle trickle on this meltdown amid ever more determinedly fervent calls of recovery/green shoots and so on. Too many people among the business media's talking heads make a living out of optimistic rosy economic cheerleading.
Unlike other property busts, this downturn has not been driven by speculative overbuilding but by investors’ overenthusiasm. Commercial property was a popular asset class for much of this decade. Institutional investors who lost a lot of money when the dotcom bubble burst were persuaded that switching from the stockmarket into property would diversify their portfolios and reduce their risk. Cheap finance was plentiful. Investors could indulge in a version of the “carry trade”—borrowing at a low interest rate to buy buildings and counting on the rental yield and capital growth to more than cover their financing costs.

That strategy looked smart when rents and capital values were rising and vacancy rates were low. But as cheap financing has dried up and economies have tumbled into recession, investors have become badly exposed. According to Marcus & Millichap, an estate agent, the office-vacancy rate in Manhattan climbed by more than three percentage points in the first half of the year, to 11.2%. As tenants have disappeared, rents have fallen too—by 16% over the past year, Marcus & Millichap reckons.
What will the 'investors' do now? The naive view is to think that since all that money has to go soewhere, it may as well flow to the brighter stars among emerging mkts (e.g. India) and drive up values here.

But that is not happening for good reason. There is little investor money left around for speculative or even investment purposes after the gargantuan destruction of nominal wealth the world has seen since the great credit bubble burst in Manhattan one afternoon on 24 Sept, 2008.

Meanwhile, the contagion leaves few emerged or emerging mkts unscathed.
European banks are exposed to property, too.
...
And pain is being felt all around the periphery of the euro area. In Spain (see article) and Ireland vacancies are surging, property prices are plummeting and cranes are standing idle.

Prices are plunging across central and eastern Europe, too, although the volume of transactions remains slim. Yields in many of these markets were driven down by hopes that they would, in time, converge with those in mature European markets. Vacancy rates in cities such as Budapest have surged to about 15% while those in Prague have almost doubled (to roughly 10%) over the past year. Some of the biggest falls in rents are taking place in Russia. Rents in Moscow have fallen by 63% in the 12 months to the end of June although they are still the third-highest in Europe (after the West End in London, and Paris). With almost one-fifth of office space empty, further falls in rents and prices seem likely.

Asia has not been spared either. The worst-affected property markets in the region have been financial centres such as Singapore and Hong Kong. Shrivelling bank balance-sheets have meant shrinking demand for office space, as armies of bankers have lost their jobs. Singapore’s swankiest business district led the retreat in office rents across the region, shedding more than half between June 2008 and June 2009, according to Cushman & Wakefield, a consultancy. Hong Kong was not far behind with a 43% drop in the same period. Mumbai (down by 40%) and Shanghai (32%) were the next hardest hit.
But all is not D&G.
There are some signs that the speed of the downward adjustment is slowing. In Hong Kong, office rents in the prime central district declined by 20.1% in the first quarter. The fall was much more moderate, but still 10.4%, in the second. Looking ahead, Singapore seems particularly dicey, because 8.3m square feet (770,000 square metres) of new office space will be coming into the market by 2013. According to CLSA, a broking firm, oversupply will also weigh heavily on office property in China. Vacancy rates in Shanghai and Beijing could rise to 35% in 2010 from around 17% and 22% respectively today.

{Dubai goes unmentioned jabki their half-finished bragging-rights towers that are all in limbo due to a vanishing act by finances would have made a much more strong statement, IMO}

A year ago everyone was worried about losses on residential-property loans. If the latest data are any guide, both American and British house prices may be finding a bottom. Concerns are now switching to the commercial sector. History suggests downturns in that market last for years, rather than months.

{True. Shanghai, or was it Beijing, had a 14 yr oversupply of Commercial RE space last year. Less said about the world's biggest property bubble burst - aka Japan 1989, the better.}

Almost 20 years have passed since the Japanese property market peaked. Prices still fell by 4.7% last year.
-Hari Om Hari
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Prem »

Hari Om Sir ,
My old Boss has one principle i.e dont go in the direction of crowd > It made him triple digit millionair from driving taxi.
In Old time they use to say Go West man , the advise now for young men is to go East. CRE will be crap for next 15 years, why sink hard earned money into it?
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Hari Seldon »

Sat Sri Akal Prem ji,

Contrarian investing also has its risks. In any case, the US realty mkt is set to stagnate at least a few yrs. Doesn't mean there are 0 good deals there. Am personally happy to see NRIs pull money out of the hotter realty mkts in India to pursue the American dream summer home. Would leave the rest of us some relief to invest in the mkt with.

Meanwhile,
Hurrying Into the Next Panic?

Paul Wilmott in the NYT explains how the minefield layout of high frequency algorithmic trading now all the buzz on Wall St.
Worthwhile read, IMHO.
That’s rather how I feel when people talk about the latest fashion among investment banks and hedge funds: high-frequency algorithmic trading. On top of an already dangerously influential and morally suspect financial minefield is now being added the unthinking power of the machine.

The idea is straightforward: Computers take information — primarily “real-time” share prices — and try to predict the next twitch in the stock market. Using an algorithmic formula, the computers can buy and sell stocks within fractions of seconds, with the bank or fund making a tiny profit on the blip of price change of each share.

There’s nothing new in using all publicly available information to help you trade; what’s novel is the quantity of data available, the lightning speed at which it is analyzed and the short time that positions are held.

You will hear people talking about “latency,” which means the delay between a trading signal being given and the trade being made. Low latency — high speed — is what banks and funds are looking for. Yes, we really are talking about shaving off the milliseconds that it takes light to travel along an optical cable.

So, is trading faster than any human can react truly worrisome? The answers that come back from high-frequency proponents, also rather too quickly, are “No, we are adding liquidity to the market” or “It’s perfectly safe and it speeds up price discovery.” In other words, the traders say, the practice makes it easier for stocks to be bought and sold quickly across exchanges, and it more efficiently sets the value of shares.

Those responses disturb me. Whenever the reply to a complex question is a stock and unconsidered one, it makes me worry all the more. Leaving aside the question of whether or not liquidity is necessarily a great idea (perhaps not being able to get out of a trade might make people think twice before entering it), or whether there is such a thing as a price that must be discovered (just watch the price of unpopular goods fall in your local supermarket — that’s plenty fast enough for me), l want to address the question of whether high-frequency algorithm trading will distort the underlying markets and perhaps the economy.
Read it all. Ensoi.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Hari Seldon »

Denninger's a tad excitable at times, gets it wrong on occasion but is usually right on the money. His commentary is about as laymanish it gets to understand the current hole the world khanomy is in.

link
This shows total non-government debt going from 150% of GDP (approximately) in 1981 to 350% of GDP (approximately) last year.

In 1981 GDP was $3.128 trillion, so the total amount of debt in the system (non-government again) was approximately $4.5 trillion.

In the last year GDP was $14.264 trillion, so total debt in the system was approximately $50 trillion.

This is an increase in the outstanding (not taken and paid-off) debt of roughly $45 trillion dollars.

In the same period of time the aggregate gross output (GDP added over all years) was approximately $218 trillion dollars. That is, if you sum the GDP of all years in the dollars of the day (not constant dollars) from 1981 to the present, you get about $218 trillion.

The growth in debt outstanding is therefore responsible for pulling forward demand - that is, increasing GDP - by about 21%.

That is on average in each year since 1981 the addition to the current debt incurred by private parties (again, not including the government!) has resulted in GDP being 20% higher than it would have otherwise been over the entire 30 year period.

The parabolic nature of the above graph however makes clear that at the start of the period the "pulled forward" amount of demand was smaller than 20%, and as such it is clear that the "contribution" now is greater than 20%.

But since we live in the here and now, and it is only fair to bias our discussion in the direction of not facing the apocalypse, we will use the 20% figure.

This recession began due to the impossibility of consumers and businesses paying their debt down. Remember - the recession did not start with job losses and a business slowdown - it began with people defaulting on mortgages and credit cards, and businesses defaulting on lines of credit. That in turn led to a business slowdown which then fed back and caused even more defaults.

Bernanke and everyone else knows this.

They know that we cannot "stuff" the debt channel any more, because we are up against the wall where people cannot pay.

This means that GDP must contract until equilibrium is restored, which is likely to be significantly more than 20%, because (1) we've intentionally understated the recent-year impact of this "pulled-forward" demand and (2) as the economy contracts and people are laid off this results in a spiral of less spending, which then feeds back to even more business contraction.

The total de-leveraging of debt by the consumer so far, since January 09 (which was the top in consumer credit outstanding) has totaled three percent - or about 10-15% of the total amount that is required to restore balance just in the consumer lending space.

You have not and will not see this reported in the mainstream media or discussed by Ben Bernanke, but it is in fact the crux of the problem - the only way "out of the box" is to try to ramp lending somewhere so as to create yet more debt to maintain final aggregate demand. The amount of debt required to do so has gone parabolic and cannot be paid down privately; ergo, the attempt to shift it all to the government via the alphabet soup programs.

This is doomed to fail despite any transient appearances of success as the amount of debt required to maintain the pulled-forward demand is now growing exponentially.

Yet there are only two choices: Face this reality, default the debt and accept a 20% or larger GDP contraction, or keep trying to stuff the federal government (since the private sector has hit the wall and cannot absorb any more credit) and when THAT blows up we lose our government and political system.

The math is irrefutable and Bernanke is fully aware of it, as are the wonks in Wahington DC.

They simply don't care about the truth and neither does the mainstream media.

If you're wondering why I go after the media and government so aggressively, this is the reason: The facts are right in front of their face and require nothing more complicated than a 4-function calculator to add it all up.

You are being intentionally misled by all of them. Period.
Wow. Just wow.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Tanaji »

Has vsudhir taken up the role of forecasting the fate of the Galactic empire and the Foundation?
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Singha »

Trantor shall rise from abandonment again!

I know it.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Hari Seldon »

Epilogue

The first galactic empire ages from without and withers from within - its governing elites having lost the will to evolve, its societies racked by hedonism, and raised in apathy, its mighty military machine immune to all but complacency and the power of imagination.

The cracks first appear in its periphery though the center may seem yet strong. It demise destined to plunge the human race into a long period of barbarism - internecine war, fractition and suffering.

But not everybody was oblivious. A small group of far-seers who called themselves 'the forum' saw, and understood.

It was too late to reverse the decline but not yet too late to cut short the interregnum of barbarism by planting the seed of a second, more enlightened second galactic empire to emerge from the ashes. It was a bold project cosmic in scale - to direct the flow of inevitability itself - karma for a noble purpose.

In preparation for the seed plating of a more just, ethical and sustainable second empire, they started to compile a vast repository of all knowledge and wisdom too precious to be lost - the veda project. They laid down the constitution of the new empire - dharmachakra - and the three laws of sustainable existence......

-Hari Om
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Singha »

the Dharma project as it was called selected a new planet along the outer rim to plant the seed of a future too far beyond for them to see...they did it for their future generations and the benefit of humanity itself. a planet filled with young , filled with hope to the sloth and cynicism of trantor. as yet weak compared to the immense knowledge of the first foundation but with potential. the leader of the Dharma project - a mysterious man named Hari Seldon and a small jedi council known collectively as The Communion spent countless years in diplomacy and knowledge transfer quietly planting the seeds of the Second foundation.

India. :mrgreen:
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by ramana »

Can we take the economic alternate futures to another thread and not mix it with this thread please?
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Prem »

Tanaji wrote:Has vsudhir taken up the role of forecasting the fate of the Galactic empire and the Foundation?
Klingons dont do much real bizness, but do run the Galactic "Ball" street .
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Hari Seldon »

ramana wrote:Can we take the economic alternate futures to another thread and not mix it with this thread please?
Saar, with all due respect, all work and no play makes for a dull thread.
the leader of the Dharma project - a mysterious man named Hari Seldon and a small jedi council known collectively as The Communion spent countless years in diplomacy and knowledge transfer quietly planting the seeds of the Second foundation.
IIRC, the alternate Indic version names the founder of the second foundation Brihaspati - the teacher. :mrgreen:

Found this on another forum:
The S&P/USD relationship is not a "who came first, the chicken or the egg" thing. When money goes into the market it leaves the USD. In other words, the USD does not affect the market, it is the market that affects the strength or weakness of the USD.

The market is being moved by the highly leveraged quant funds. The boys at Goldman Sachs are the market's prime movers. The traders of these funds must move their corporate stock share prices up in order the justify the huge bonuses they will be receiving later this year. Last year, when the big banks were in financial free fall, 5,000 traders and bankers still received bonuses of over $1 million each. This year, because they will be able to show stock price gains through Government subsidies, those bonuses will be twice that much. Once the bonuses are paid out, the market will plunge.

The percentage of daily stock volume that is moved by the front running quant funds is so large, that if the proprietary traders were to pull out of the market, the market would collapse. These same prime dealers were in control of the auction rate securities market. On the day they stopped bidding up the prices of those securities, that market collapsed. Expect the same thing to happen with the stock market. Once the market collapses, money will come pouring back into the USD and JPY and out of gold and oil. I'll bet if Mish showed a year to date chart on gold and the S&P, we'd see them moving in tandem.

I believe that once we have a strong USD again, it will be time to get the hell out of it and into gold, commodities and commodity currencies. I also believe that the Chinese will be waiting for that same moment to get out of their USDs. It might be tough to front run the Chinese, so carpe diem.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Singha »

people of modest abilities want to see numbers, so-called 'facts' , remain
cocooned in the web of pseudo-reality projected by the matrix. trapped
in a jail of their own mind, they are relatively docile, easily controlled,
shaped, coralled...just the way The Fallen Overlords** want humanity to be.

greater minds escape the realities of matter and shape and wander
freely among the stars.....at one with The Force and The Overmind.

they constantly dream. even their dreams have layers of dreams.

in history there have only been a few of these people as adults. they
are the last surviving link to what we were potentially destined to be
-vs- the meek sheep we have become.

infants and toddlers have this ability too - they do not know enough to know fear, pain, conditioning, ignorance, psyops. they find unusual
solutions to problems. but society soon beats most of them into submission.

** rogue faction of The Overlords banished from their galaxy and forced
to seek refuge along the outer rim, in alliance with the Han trading
federation and islamist raiding planets.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Hari Seldon »

Following the picture == 1000 words dictum....

Image
This is off Table 3B in the BEA's release and is actual year-over-year change in constant (chained) dollars. Feel free to check my work - in fact, you should check my work, just like you should check everyone else's you hear, especially if you hear a politician or media pundit opine about how "things are getting better."

Baloney. Not only is the GDP still falling it is still falling at an increasing year-over-year rate.

The second derivative will not go positive until the slope of that line turns upward and we will not see an actual y/o/y increase until (of course) the line goes over zero. So long as the line slopes downward the decline in GDP - the economy as a whole - is accelerating.

One other thing: Notice how 2007-Q3 was when the turn in GDP happened? When did the market top? October 2007, SPX 1576, right?

Think about it folks.

You're being lied to.

Again.
link
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Neshant »

I question whether GDP, inflation and a bunch of other government manufactured statistics are even real to begin with.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Hari Seldon »

Neshant wrote:I question whether GDP, inflation and a bunch of other government manufactured statistics are even real to begin with.
The biggest suspect statistic is the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) issued Unemployment rates - U3, U6 and so on. Based on a suspect birth/death model whose assumptions no longer apply as cleanly past the sept 2008 'structural break' point.

Anyway, herez an article that I found highly unsettling. The Great Britain we all know and love so much may not be so great at all, after all (Gasp!).

Forget the Great In Britain
Its fall was inevitable, but the economic crisis will shrink the last pretenses of empire faster than anyone expected.
Anyone else shedding copious tears? Pls join the shok-manch (shock-munch?)

Read on and weep.....
Even in the decades after it lost its empire, Britain strode the world like a pocket superpower. Its economic strength and cultural heft, its nuclear-backed military might, its extraordinary relationship with America—all these things helped this small island nation to punch well above its weight class.

{Letz start with the extraordinary relationship to Amerika bit.....it was poodledom. Unmitigated grin-and-bear GUBO. The IRA was fundraising in usa and ukstan despite teeth-gnashing could do zilch about it. Sure, ukstan did the same to Dilli by sheltering our thugs n terrorists and facilitating their ops. The sharp slap unkil delivered london in the suez crisis was instructive too.}

Now all that is changing as the bills come due on Britain's role in last year's financial meltdown, the rescue of the banks, and the ensuing recession. Suddenly, the sun that once never set on the British Empire is casting long shadows over what's left of Britain's imperial ambitions, {quaint, eh? Who knew, $hitain still had imperial ambitions left. No, I mean, really.}and the country is having to rethink its role in the world—perhaps as Little Britain, certainly as a lesser Britain.
:(( :((

This is a watershed moment for the United Kingdom.
{From waterloo to watershed in the twinkling of an eye, eh?}

The country's public debt is soaring, possibly doubling to a record high of 100 percent of GDP over the next five years, according to the International Monetary Fund. The National Institute for Economic and Social Research forecasts that it will take six years for per capita income to reach early-2008 levels again.

{same per capita in real terms, I surmise. Thats saying something within an overall deflationary scenario when the inflation rate is net negative only}

The effects will cascade across government. Budgets will be slashed at the Ministry of Defense and the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, affecting Britain's ability to project power, hard and soft.

{Why not cost-cutting at the BBC? Now, I am disappointed}

And there's little that can be done to reverse the trend, {Haye! Gimme a fresh fresh towel please..... :(( :(( } either by Prime Minister Gordon Brown or by the incoming government of David Cameron's Conservatives, assuming they win a general election that must be held within the next 10 months.

As William Hague, Cameron's deputy and shadow foreign secretary, said in a recent speech: "It will become more difficult over time for Britain to exert on world affairs the influence which we are used to."

{Hurrah. Not all is lost. The classic Brit art of understatement survives!}
Abbo, so much more to delve in and write about. So many more towels in the artikel. Plz read and weep onlee.....

On the flip side, expect the psy-ops against us to shed its velvet gloves. Slumdawg was the tip of the tip of the iceberg only. UKstan can only maintain its pretenses by showing us third worlders as so much worse off than their 'continuously improving living standards' bit.

Admittedly have little or sympathy/empathy/ganapathy for UKstan. Zero goodwill onlee. Care though must be exercised lest the lack of goodwill slip over into 'bad will' territory. Not because of any concern for UKstan but because having illwill even for one as deserving as UKstan is ultimately self-damaging. TSP hatred towards Yindia is a great case in the point. Apathy is better than antipathy, I reckon. Must always retain the ability to do business with UKstan when it suits us.

Added later: Herez the point I was making about the biased BBC and the creation and maintenance of ancient feuds along ethnic, tribal or religious lines the $hitish broadcasters (broadsiders?) can boast of in what is now the commonweath.
Britain, having paid a steep political price for the hard power it wielded in Iraq and recognizing the limits to the money it can pour into weapons systems and the like, is keen to project soft power. But the government is seemingly weakening what should be a chief instrument of soft power, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office. The legacy of Iraq and Afghanistan is "strategic incoherence" and has left the FCO adrift, says Christopher Meyer, a former British ambassador to Washington. FCO cuts suggest that the diplomatic corps, once the envy of the entire world, is losing the bureaucratic wars. In 2004, the FCO closed 19 overseas missions out of about 300. In Australia, New Zealand, Germany, France, Spain, and the United States, some consulates were downgraded, leaving only local personnel in place. Since then, the FCO has cut staff from 6,000 to 4,000. This year's FCO budget of £2 billion is widely expected to be pared to £1.6 billion in the next fiscal year.
Cry me a bucket. The waning of UK influence needen't always be good for us but going by their recent actions (the opposition to including known anti-India terrorists in the UN watchlist) UKstan seems to be OK with going overt in its opposition to Indian interests.
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