Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

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enqyoob
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by enqyoob »

Pakistan would do well to look elsewhere to find its pro-Baluchi separatists elsewhere and the GOI as well should realise that it was being made the patsy at S-al-S signing referring to Baluchistan thanks to alleged US pressure,to help conceal the US's own terror activities in Baluchistan!
The other side of the coin is that this explains partly why TSP was so desperate to include "Reference to Balochistan" in the S-e-S. If you read that carefully, nowhere does it say that INDIA is interfering in Balocistan, just that Pakistan mentions Balochistan and other regions as areas of concern. The general assumption is that it refers to India (or India gets to take credit, depending on one's view) but the mention there may very well be a signal that India shares Pakistan's concern about other ppl meddling in Balochistan. As u know, Pakistan in its 400% GUBO state, cannot say anything about US interference on its territory, not even the Predator strikes are acknowledged as anything other than "suspected missile attacks by suspected airplanes from suspected NATO bases".

Not to put a damper on the :(( by anyone, just observing this point with the evidence given above. Now I read the term "NARROW ANSWER" by Holbrooke very differently. What he said was that Pakistan obviously discussed Balochistan with him, but as for Pakistan giving him evidence of INDIAN interference in Balochistan, "the narrow answer is NO".

If Balochistan is being used by the Americans with Pakistani acquiescence to stage destabilization of the elected govt in Iran, that is not good news for Balochis - on either side of the Iran/Pakistan border. OTOH, a lot of Balochis are going to get trained, armed and funded by this effort (presumably CIA) like the Mujaheddin in the 1980s, and will I hope turn their skills and resources against their oppressors in Islamabad when the time comes.
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by Dilbu »

Indo-Pak joint statement a 'huge blow' to foreign policy: BJP
Bangalore: BJP on Saturday said UPA government had dealt a "huge blow" to the basic tenets of the country's foreign policy by delinking terror from talks with Pakistan and asked it come out with a "contingency plan to undo the damage."

Continuing to target the government on the joint statement issued at Sharm-el Sheikh in Egypt, BJP President Rajnath Singh said, "The UPA Government has dealt a huge blow to the basic tenets of our national foreign policy by delinking talks from terror and allowing Pakistan to accuse India of interference in Balochistan."

"The UPA government should immediately stop shifting goalposts and come up with a contingency plan to undo the damage done to fundamentals of India's diplomacy and foreign policy," he told reporters here.
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by John Snow »

Spin Spin and more Spin.

“If you can't go around it, over it, or through it, you had better negotiate with it”
enqyoob
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by enqyoob »

Spinster:

When facing impossible spin, static defense is a sure recipe for disaster. Always move feet and get to the pitch of the ball and swing the bat. May connect once in a while.
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by pgbhat »

Will Krishna be left holding the baby?
Will dapper external affairs minister S M Krishna be the fall guy for the Sharm-el-Sheikh fiasco? Although the poor man wasn't even present when the controversial Indo-Pak joint statement was being drafted (he had been sent off to fill in for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at the closing ceremony of the Non-aligned Summit), he seems to have become the face of the UPA's Egyptian blunder.

The thought hasn't crystallised into proposal for action yet but the whispers in Congress circles are getting louder that the government needs a political heavyweight and a more hands on minister in the foreign office. Krishna's poor performance in Parliament last week only underlined his deficiencies. While the PM protected himself from the BJP with invocations of Vajpayee, the EAM was not as nimble and bore the brunt of the opposition attack.

He was heckled and mocked in the Lok Sabha as the "Shivraj Patil'' of UPA 2 and could barely be heard above the din. It wasn't much better the next day in the Rajya Sabha. It's no secret that Manmohan Singh handpicked Krishna for the EAM's post because he wanted a lightweight there so that he could steer foreign policy himself. In retrospect, the decision is being seen as unwise. It took a tragedy like 26/11 to open the government's eyes to the perils of putting a dandy in a demanding place like the home ministry. Now the usually placid and uncontroversial external affairs ministry is proving to be a minefield as well.
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by pgbhat »

Quetta India!
Some smart aleck at Sharm el-Sheikh must have, in the manner in which those naughty bits would be spliced into a harmless reel of film, snuck in a single-sentence paragraph in an otherwise ‘ho-hum, what friendly fun’ India-Pakistan joint statement. Between the line that read, “Both leaders agreed that the two countries will share real time, credible and actionable information on any future terrorist threats” (yawn) and another that read, “Both Prime Ministers recognised that dialogue is the only way forward” (zzz), there was the sleeper fifth paragraph: “Prime Minister Gilani mentioned that Pakistan has some information on threats in Balochistan and other areas.” It turns out that this line was the equivalent of a p0rn segment stitched on to a Disney movie. :rotfl:
What makes us Brahminical paranoids insist on behalf of the Pakistanis that we — and not the Afghans (in their war against the Taliban), or the Iranians (who supposedly provide training camps along the Iran-Balochistan border), or the Americans (who could use some Balochi help against the Chinese naval presence in the province’s Gwadar port) — are behind the “threats in Balochistan”? All these countries have better reasons to support the insurgency than us — and a better chance of success.

So I say to those tearing their hair about India’s shame at Sharm el-Sheikh: Relax. Reflect. Rebound. Go for a nice meal at the restaurant in Hauz Khas, Delhi, outside which the proud sign reads: ‘Winner: National tourism award for best restaurant in India for two years and regional tourism award of excellence for five years in succession by Ministry of Tourism (Govt. of India).” You’ll then see that it’s not so easy for those hungry Pakistanis to sneak up on your fridge and steal your ready-to-be-microwaved goshtaba while you’re munching away here at the Park Balluchi.
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by Muppalla »

It may be we need to give time for S.M.Krishna. Far more successful as karnataka CM and definitely not a button pusher. He may not have been successful in terms steering his party to power in karnataka and he is EAM for the first time and Sharm happened so soon that he is on the knife edge. He may have been roughshodded by the powers that are calling the shots. If he continues to bumble for next several months then yes he can be put into the leauge of Shivraj Patil.
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by Mahendra »

Mupalla ji

SMK is a button pusher
Given the way he meekly wagged his tail despite being treated roughly during the state elections and the general elections says a lot about his character. He was a good CM and quite popular too but failed to carve a support base for himself.
To be honest, he probably doesnt have the credentials to become a FM, primarily because he doesnt have the necessary experience
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by Muppalla »

vaman ji,

You may be right. I just though he may need little more time because he was never a cabinet minister before and he is directly seated on a high profile seat. Definitely designed to manipulate him. If he does not come out on his own then India has a disaster there as folks from Lehmann Brothers types will be leading it from behind the scenes.
ramana wrote:I maybe chastised but this is the way I see it. MMS had to return with a joint statement from S-e-S in order to reduce US pressure. You can whine about it but thats the reality that US pressures everyone it thinks is in its way. So he agreed to the unilateral insertion in the joint statement in order to ensure that the joint statement is released.
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Delinking terror from talks had to be done to prevent the nuke flashpoint rhetoric from US. And all that troop mobilization does is unite the TSP factions and stop them form their self destruction and moreover forces US and PRC aid to prop them up due to duplicitious concerns of stability and keeping down India.
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Its difficult being an alpha wolf when you are surrounded by alpha squirrels.
I do not know if the pressure is as much as MMS cannot avert the sharm fiasco. When we talk about pressure we have several events in the post-independent era that the entire nation stood resolute to not succumb to pressures. During 1971 war folks went out with no fuel to cook food but were resolute. In 1962 the generation of those times donated personal jewelry for the losing war. I don't know when but rice supplies were stopped by US and I guess during Lal Bahadur Shastri times, folks did not eat nightly meals on PM's call. If the leadership has the will power, it can steer to a point of view and the masses will listen to that and our past examples are proof to such things.

MMS is not as young as many of us here and hence he may have seen all that history as a young man and he is in now in the same seat. I am afraid that it is the mindset where the person thinks that all such sacrifices are not worth and hence come-what-may let us move in a direction at the cost of several (percieved) compromises in that path. He is not a traitor but he has a specific vision which is unique and different from the India's leadership of the 20th century. He may be persuing that vision without much of consensus and also he has the backing the power that matters.
Last edited by Muppalla on 02 Aug 2009 02:07, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by svinayak »

vaman wrote:Mupalla ji

SMK is a button pusher
Given the way he meekly wagged his tail despite being treated roughly during the state elections and the general elections says a lot about his character. He was a good CM and quite popular too but failed to carve a support base for himself.
To be honest, he probably doesnt have the credentials to become a FM, primarily because he doesnt have the necessary experience
Is is true that he is a "illeg" of the former Mirza.
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by vera_k »

narayanan wrote:The other side of the coin is that this explains partly why TSP was so desperate to include "Reference to Balochistan" in the S-e-S. If you read that carefully, nowhere does it say that INDIA is interfering in Balocistan, just that Pakistan mentions Balochistan and other regions as areas of concern. The general assumption is that it refers to India (or India gets to take credit, depending on one's view) but the mention there may very well be a signal that India shares Pakistan's concern about other ppl meddling in Balochistan. As u know, Pakistan in its 400% GUBO state, cannot say anything about US interference on its territory, not even the Predator strikes are acknowledged as anything other than "suspected missile attacks by suspected airplanes from suspected NATO bases".
Nice attempt to spin, but Gilani subsequently leaves no doubt as to why Balochistan was added to the statement.

India interfering in Balochistan : Gilani

Baloch issue will figure in Indo-Pak dialogue : Gilani
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by putnanja »

pgbhat wrote:Will Krishna be left holding the baby?
. It's no secret that Manmohan Singh handpicked Krishna for the EAM's post because he wanted a lightweight there so that he could steer foreign policy himself. In retrospect, the decision is being seen as unwise. It took a tragedy like 26/11 to open the government's eyes to the perils of putting a dandy in a demanding place like the home ministry. Now the usually placid and uncontroversial external affairs ministry is proving to be a minefield as well.
I have been saying this since the govt was formed. SMK, Anand Sharma, Tharoor etc are all hand picked by MMS so that he can drive policy there. SMK, while a good administrator and politically strong in Karnataka, he is a new comer to EAM. And he is not the aggressive type. He is a fulbright scholar and has a sophistication around him. However, foreign affairs is pretty new to him and he is not the one to question someone like MMS.

Kamalnath would have made a good EAM, as he had done a good job as commerce minister earlier and safeguarded Indian interests in WTO. He has also dealt with ministers from other countries and he knows how they operate.
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by pgbhat »

Try peace ---- Zafar Hilaly
The 1,000 or so babus who man the Foreign Office could suggest one. The reason is the pressing need to get India off our backs in the East to allow us to deal with the Taliban in the West.

However, the likelihood of India pulling back its forces from the border is unlikely. India takes a perverse pleasure in saying "no" to sensible proposals when they emanate from Pakistan. There too exists a horde of self-defeating pundits whose main claim to fame thus far has been to ensure the creation of Pakistan and who since then have spared no effort to undo their error. But, as the wise Vajpayee realised and conceded, it is now too late, although in the hearts of some Indians hope springs eternal.

Manmohan Singh and Mrs Gandhi, a savvy duo, have a good idea how adversely instability on India's borders impacts on India. Thus, while no one expects India to make things easier for Pakistan, perish the thought, what one can hope is that India will display an element of good sense and see the writing on the wall. A continuing military stand-off is not in India's own interest. There is just so much elasticity in a rubber band. And a point has been reached when another terrorist attack will cause it to snap. Between now and when that almost inevitable attack occurs, India and Pakistan have an opportunity to so order their relations that they will be able to withstand its fall out and not allow their traditional antipathy to be manipulated by terrorists for their own ends. They fell into this trap after Mumbai and would be foolish to do so again.

There are many in India who spend an inordinate amount of time designing imaginary mausoleums for their enemies and at a time when Pakistan is mired in woes they have become quite busy. Lest they find their own bones interred in the mausoleum with those of their enemies it would be wiser to design other structures and none is more beautiful than that of peace. Why not try it? After all we have tried everything else.
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by shiv »

pgbhat wrote:Try peace ---- Zafar Hilaly
Between now and when that almost inevitable attack occurs, India and Pakistan have an opportunity to so order their relations that they will be able to withstand its fall out and not allow their traditional antipathy to be manipulated by terrorists for their own ends.
I love Paki chutzpah :rotfl:

I am reminded of the story of the kinky dung beetle that would pull in unsuspecting ants that were passing by onto its home pile of dung and then exclaim "Oops - we must try to keep off the dung"

Again Pakis are changing their story

1) First it was Muslims fighting in India for justice
2) Then it was freedom fighters for whom Pakis gave moral and diplomatic support
3) Now it is "terrorists" who are affecting both India and Pakistan as if Pakis are somehow separate from "terrorists"

Hey Pakis - we may be stupid short and dark but we're not that stupid.
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by shiv »

Yesterday I was witness to a scene that is not at all unusual. Two brothers aged about 8 and 5 were playing. The older boy did something to the younger chap (I didn't see) and younger guy threw a tantrum for the benefit of his mother and insisted that she should call her elder son a "bad boy". He would not say "bad boy" himself as his mother suggested. The idea was that being called "bad boy" by mommy would somehow hurt the older guy more. Eventually the irritated mum made both boys shut up by throwing a tantrum of her own - but that is beside the point.

That brings me to the meekness of Indian governments - not just our current Kaangressis - but even the BJP in when they had their chance.

Let us rewind a few years to the late 1990s. It was obvious to everyone in India that Pakistan was sponsoring terrorism in India. Instead of calling a spade a spade and referring to Pakistan as a sponsor of terrorism in India - or a terrorist state - Indian leaders were begging "mommy" the USA to describe Pakistan as a "Terrorist state". Such is the propensity of our national leaders to show lack of cojones and hide behind someone's skirt

Ten years later and after the most horrific attack yet - India is not even openly declaring Pakistan as a sponsor of terrorism, but leaders are saying, "We must talk. We will talk about anything. Please. Pretty please. Talk to us" If the Congress party makes me angry - the suggestion that the BJP or any other party has anything resembling balls makes me angrier.
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by JwalaMukhi »

This has got to do with the thinking that has been molded with the previous few and present generations. The thought process of accepting pakistan; duly presided over by the western power as final set in stone event is the cause for this kind of appeasing the oxbridge brigade. This generational thought process is going to come to an end in next decade. Not because the idea is recognized as stale, but the holders of such brief would have faded away. Boundaries drawn by some Firangis are being treated as sacrosanct.
The existence of pakistan is anti-thesis to survival of India. This will be pursued not by any current generational leaders. Although, some may not subscribe to this idea, they fantasize in dissipating pakistan through talk and love. Elections of 2019 and the leadership it produces will be the one to look forward to. If the same worship to firangi ideas continue even then, India will have much more serious problems than pakis at that time.
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by svinayak »

JwalaMukhi wrote:This has got to do with the thinking that has been molded with the previous few and present generations. The thought process of accepting pakistan; duly presided over by the western power as final set in stone event is the cause for this kind of appeasing the oxbridge brigade. This generational thought process is going to come to an end in next decade. Not because the idea is recognized as stale, but the holders of such brief would have faded away. Boundaries drawn by some Firangis are being treated as sacrosanct.
US govt declaring any state as sponsoring terrorism will face sanction and financial problem. That is one of the reason.
Indian leadership failed to create a consensus to isolate TSP.
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by shiv »

Acharya wrote: US govt declaring any state as sponsoring terrorism will face sanction and financial problem. That is one of the reason.
Indian leadership failed to create a consensus to isolate TSP.

The US is able to apply sanctions because its financial procedures are tightly controlled. Here too we have a failure of our leadership who want all the hawala and illegal fund transfer channels to remain intact for their personal benefit and are completely unable to touch the same hawala when used by D company.

So the losers pitch is to say "Oh we must talk. You hit us. You kill our people. But we will talk to you"
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by Anujan »

Acharya wrote:US govt declaring any state as sponsoring terrorism will face sanction and financial problem. That is one of the reason.
Indian leadership failed to create a consensus to isolate TSP.
Internal or external consensus ? Without external consensus, internal consensus looks silly.

Pakis is the b4st4rd child of western foreign policy. B4st4rd, but child nevertheless. We are going to create a consensus among the fathers to isolate the child ? That was a battle we could not have won. TSP is a failing state with deniable motivated footsoldiers, willing army, politicians and intelligence agency selling them for hire. It emerges (from Siebel Edmonds among others) that OBL was in direct communication with Unkil right upto 9/11 the project being destabilizing central asia.

In this climate how do go and convince unkil that Pakis are a terrorist state ? Among the major economic powers, EU (Britain in particular) have a "not in my backyard, find other kafirs" attitude. Pakis are funded by cheenis, keeping the ummah angry at India is their aim to stymie india and keep them off of cheeni territory. Saudis look upon pakis as rentier jihadists and nuclear bum suppliers. Japan as usual practices chequebook diplomacy, Unkil is using them. Who will we convince that Pakis are a terrorist state ? What happened to PVN's efforts ? What happened to JS's offer of sending troops to A'stan ? How come there is this talk about "good taliban/bad taliban even now ?"

Think a step before consensus. We havent built *leverage*. Where is our leverage with saudis ? with UK ? Unkil ? Japan ? EU ? If things were done properly, france will be soiling their shalwars for having sold Agostas to Pakis. A public announcement that france has greatly endangered India's security, followed by throwing out the Rafale from the contest will be a good start.

Think about it this way. Any security we achieve by throwing out the rafale will be far higher than the security we achieve buying the rafale.
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by enqyoob »

Nice attempt to spin, but Gilani subsequently leaves no doubt as to why Balochistan was added to the statement.

India interfering in Balochistan : Gilani

Baloch issue will figure in Indo-Pak dialogue : Gilani
Thank you, Q.E.D. I can go to sleep now.
So let me get this straight - If Groper Gilani says something, you BELIEVE IT without question.
If ManMohan Singh says something , you DISBELIEVE IT without question.
AllahoAkbar! The BENIS mullahs can take over yindoostan! :rotfl:
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by shravan »

Kabul rejects claims of anti-Pakistan camps
Sun, 02 Aug, 2009
KABUL: Afghanistan firmly rejected Sunday reported claims by a Pakistani minister that President Hamid Karzai had admitted that ‘terrorist’ training camps in this country were operating against Pakistan.
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by shravan »

narayanan wrote: Thank you, Q.E.D. I can go to sleep now.
So let me get this straight - If Groper Gilani says something, you BELIEVE IT without question.
If ManMohan Singh says something , you DISBELIEVE IT without question.
AllahoAkbar! The BENIS mullahs can take over yindoostan! :rotfl:
Kabul had ‘strong evidence’ that Afghan as well as Pakistani, Central Asian and Al-Qaeda-linked militants of various nationalities were operating from safe havens across the border, the minister said.
Afghanistan has taken our place..... :cry:
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by vera_k »

narayanan wrote:Thank you, Q.E.D. I can go to sleep now.
So let me get this straight - If Groper Gilani says something, you BELIEVE IT without question.
If ManMohan Singh says something , you DISBELIEVE IT without question.
AllahoAkbar! The BENIS mullahs can take over yindoostan! :rotfl:
Ok, so since we have established that you believe ManMohan Singh, here is why your interpretation is wrong in his own words -

PM introduced Balochistan
The PM quite candidly explained why he included Balochistan in the statement. "The Prime Minister of Pakistan did bring up this thing when I said about terrorist acts aided, abetted and inspired from Pakistan's side. He said that in his country people say India is active in Balochistan. I said our conduct is an open book. We are willing to discuss all issues because we are doing nothing. And I said to him that I have been told several times that Indian consulates in Afghanistan are engaged in undesirable activities and I said these consulates have existed not today, they were set up way back in the 1950s. But if you have any evidence, we are willing to look at it because we are an open book; we are doing nothing. Therefore, we are not afraid of discussing these issues."
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by Kakkaji »

Swapan Dasgupta's take in dailypioneer.com. Posting in full. My apologies if already posted:

Manmohan deserves Nishaan-e-Pakistan
Swapan Dasgupta

Viewed from the perspective of India, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s latest peace overture to a recalcitrant Pakistan seems bewildering and a trifle misplaced. How, it is being legitimately asked, can you repose trust in a Pakistan that is unwilling to own up to its misdemeanours and, indeed, is content with the mollycoddling of extremist and terrorist forces? Just because Atal Bihari Vajpayee too was guilty of a similar misjudgement doesn’t necessarily justify its persistence.

Yet, it is important to realise that India’s desperate desire to give its difficult neighbour the benefit of doubt is not an isolated move prompted by some weakness of the national character. Pakistan, which was worsted after the 9/11 attacks and the Anglo-American ‘war on terror’, is on the verge of recovering lost ground and scoring a major foreign policy triumph. This is not because the Manmohan Singh regime is weak and supine. That is only a small part of the problem. The real advantage for Pakistan lies in the fact that an economically devastated West has lost the political resolve to persist with the war in Afghanistan. It is looking for ways to extricate itself from what is generally being regarded as a no-win situation. What India is doing is creating the conditions for an ignominious Anglo-American retreat from Afghanistan. Being nice to Pakistan is a part of India’s facilitation process.

The extent to which defeatism has overwhelmed the West is most evident in the hysterical British reaction to the death of 22 of its soldiers last month. The July toll may seem small by Indian standards — the Maoists have killed more policemen and para-military forces in Chhattisgarh in the same time frame — but in British eyes this is unacceptable. From the perspective of other European participants in the multi-national force it is even more so. The only German soldier who killed a Taliban insurgent had to be flown back home for trauma therapy and the legendary Luftwaffe has ceased all night operations because it is seen as too risky.

There was a naive belief in some European capitals that involvement in Afghanistan actually meant overseeing good works by social workers in the Provincial Reconstruction Teams. The soldiers, it was assumed, would keep a benign eye on things as earnest young do-gooders helped Afghans rebuild schools, practice gender equality and climb up the Human Development Index. When that romantic dream turned into a nightmare amid the harsh realities of Afghanistan, the inclination of European civil society has been to cut losses and run back home.

The Afghan war is without question an unpopular war. The Americans may want more boots on the ground and a few targeted operations, including the one with the menacing name Operation Panther’s Claw, but this is widely seen as a face-saving precursor to departure. Maybe the bases in Baghran and Kandahar may remain, but for all intents and purposes, the war on terror is drawing to a close without any sign of victory.

For Pakistan, this is fantastic news and it is doing its utmost to hasten the departure of the international forces. Having carefully helped the Taliban regroup after the debacle of 2001 and continue its low-intensity guerrilla war, Pakistan is now intent on projecting itself as the proverbial poacher-turned-gamekeeper. It has implored the West to outsource the pacification of Pushtuns to it. After all, no one is said to know the forbidding terrain around the Durand Line better than Pakistan. In return, Pakistan wants the West to create the conditions for its ‘approved’ intervention in Afghanistan.

Ideally, Pakistan has two demands. First, it wants the West to guarantee that the shift of military might from the eastern front with India to the western front will not involve India taking advantage of the situation. Second, Pakistan wants the West to realise that it would be difficult to manage the internal fallout of training its guns on the Taliban unless there is some ideological compensation, such as some recognition of Pakistan’s role in Kashmir. As of now, the West has merely impressed upon India the need to free Pakistani forces in the east so that it can join the main battle in the west. For India, this has meant lowering the temperature on Pakistan-sponsored terrorism directed against India. As of now, the West hasn’t really arm-twisted India on the Kashmir issue. But that is only a matter of time. New Delhi has already demonstrated its inclination to crawl when asked to bend.

The coming months are going to be crucial for Afghanistan. On the face of it, President Hamid Karzai seems set for a clear victory in next month’s presidential election. However, it is clear that both Pakistan and the so-called civil society groups in the West are betting on his ex-World Bank rival Ashraf Ghani as a wholesome alternative to Karzai. Ghani has the support of the anti-Karzai Pushtuns but lacks the incumbent’s ability to garner the votes of the minority communities linked to the erstwhile Northern Alliance.

The presidential election isn’t likely to be entirely free and fair. Given the troubled state of Afghanistan, it can hardly be so. Moreover, the democratic culture hasn’t really taken roots in Afghanistan. Any result that favours Karzai is likely to be strongly disputed by the Ghani camp and the scepticism is certain to be fuelled by both Pakistan and Western Governments anxious to leave Afghanistan to god and Pakistan. It is a possible man-made crisis over the election results that may well set the stage for Pakistan’s formal re-acquisition of its lost ‘strategic depth’.

By refusing to play hard ball in Egypt last month, Manmohan Singh thought he was trying to help the West get its act together in Pakistan. The consequences of his generosity may well be Pakistan’s victory in Afghanistan. The Indian Prime Minister deserves a Nishaan-e-Pakistan award.
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by Kakkaji »

Kanchan Gupta in dailypioneer.com. Posting in full. My apologies if already posted:

Sharm statement lies in tatters
Kanchan Gupta

It has been a great week for the Opposition, especially the BJP. The blistering attack on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s ‘grand strategy’ to inveigle himself into the good books of US President Barack Hussein Obama by conceding the demands of America’s puppet regime in Islamabad, his ‘bold leap’ over the dead and the maimed who bear testimony to the limitless brutality of Pakistani jihadis to befriend those who sponsor the shedding of Indian blood, has left him in splendid isolation.

The Congress has refused to endorse what Mr Jaswant Singh has scathingly described as “Alice in Wonderland gobbledygook drafted in Punjabi English, a profound error and a disaster.” Ms Sonia Gandhi has firmly laid down her party’s line against which few would cavil: “We support the resumption of the dialogue process with Pakistan, but only after it has demonstrated its seriousness to bring the perpetrators of the Mumbai terror attacks to justice, and to prevent its territory from being used to launch terror attacks on any part of our country.”

The Sharm el-Sheikh declaration delinking Pakistani terrorism from peace talks lies in tatters, although not entirely abandoned by the Prime Minister who, after offering to “walk more than half the distance”, has been justly accused by Mr Yashwant Sinha of “walking all the way to the Pakistani camp”. The Prime Minister’s long-winded, convoluted, intervention during last Wednesday’s debate on foreign policy in the Lok Sabha may have enthused his admirers, but it has left the vast majority unmoved and not convinced.

A careful scrutiny of his speech will show that he has not said anything remarkably different from what he told Parliament on July 17, a day after the debacle at Sharm el-Sheikh where he met Pakistan’s Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani. The joint statement issued after the meeting made four substantive points placing Pakistan, the perpetrator of jihadi terrorism, at par with India, the victim of jihadi terrorism; delinking action on terrorism from the composite dialogue process (which includes the ‘Kashmir issue’); transforming Baluchi nationalism/separatism from being Pakistan’s problem into India’s doing; and, pledging the exchange of real time, actionable intelligence on terrorism with Pakistan. While the delinking of terrorism and talks is of deep concern, the inclusion of the ‘B’ word in the joint statement with its implied consequences is alarming.

According to Ahmed Rashid, the author of Taliban and Descent into Chaos: How the war against Islamic extremism is being lost in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia, and other commentators in the Pakistani media, the inclusion of Baluchistan in the joint statement followed Mr Gilani handing over a dossier to the Prime Minister, containing ‘evidence’ of India’s alleged involvement in fomenting trouble in Baluchistan through its consulates in Afghanistan, and assistance to, of all people, Baitullah Mehsud and his Tehrik-e-Taliban or Pakistani Taliban.

The Prime Minister’s denial of having received any such dossier has not prevented the Pakistanis from launching a concerted propaganda offensive in an effort to paint India as the sponsor of Baluchi ‘terrorism’. The US special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Mr Richard Holbrooke, has let it be known that the issue of India’s alleged involvement in fomenting violence in Baluchistan was raised during his recent visit to Islamabad, but no evidence was provided to him.

That means nothing. The history of the US’s involvement in ‘settling’ disputes, from Korea to Nicaragua via Vietnam and later in the Balkans, not to mention Pakistan and Afghanistan, tells us that the Americans are adept in the art of converting fiction into fact if it suits their geostrategic interests. Only those who are blissfully ignorant of American duplicity and are happy to gloss over Pakistani perfidy would flaunt Mr Holbrooke’s comment as ‘evidence’ to prove that the Prime Minister has done no wrong.

But let’s return to the Prime Minister’s intervention in the Lok Sabha on Wednesday. He spoke at length, often meandering from point to point and seeking to obfuscate the real issues raised by the Opposition. His response was prepared in advance to address popular concerns. Yet, it was stilted, shorn of sincerity and lacking in clarity. He began with the need to talk to Pakistan, then contradicted himself by saying but we cannot talk to Pakistan unless it takes verifiable measures against terrorism, and concluded by emphasising that the only other option to dialogue is war, which, of course, is not true.

After going through the Prime Minister’s waffle more than once, four questions come to mind. First, the intervention makes little sense, unless it is meant to confound the Opposition and confuse the nation, a tactical ploy used by the Prime Minister to mislead everybody during the negotiations on the flawed India-US nuclear deal. Recall how he promised something in Parliament and did exactly the opposite, again and again, till people lost track. So, the Prime Minister must categorically clarify: Are we going to talk, or not talk to Pakistan? If we talk, will it be meaningful dialogue or casual tittle-tattle?

Does delinking Pakistani terrorism from the composite dialogue process mean: a) Composite dialogue will resume even if Pakistan fails to act against terror emanating from territory under its control, as the joint statement says; b) Pakistan cannot make action against terrorism conditional to the resumption of the composite dialogue, as the Prime Minister says; or, c) India must resume the composite dialogue irrespective of whether or not Pakistan acts against anti-India terrorism, as Mr Gilani interprets it?

Second, what was the compulsion to include Baluchistan in the joint statement? The Prime Minister’s bunkum about India keeping an ‘open book’ means nothing. Third, why is there this sudden turnaround in policy and at whose behest? Has sovereignty been replaced by servility? Fourth, have no lessons been learned from the disastrous experience of trying to set up a Joint Anti-Terror Mechanism with Pakistan? Why have we agreed to share real time, actionable intelligence when this can be used by Pakistan to its advantage and potentially expose our strategic assets?

A last point: The Prime Minister is given to waxing eloquent about the “shared future” of India and Pakistan, as he did on Wednesday. I don’t think democratic, secular India has any ‘shared future’ with the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. Why indulge in such bogus rhetoric? Or does the Prime Minister actually believe that a terror-sponsoring Islamic state built on the shaky foundation of hate and intolerance, and an open, plural, free society share a common destiny?

This is neither ‘grand strategy’ nor ‘bad drafting’. It is part of a larger, sinister game plan hatched somewhere else, far away from New Delhi, Islamabad and Sharm el-Sheikh. That game plan must be defeated. India cannot be held hostage to an individual’s delusions of grandeur. Nor can the nation’s interests be compromised to appease those for whom India’s security and well-being is of least importance.
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by Kakkaji »

MJ Akbar in dailypioneer.com. He suggests making the free trade pact under SAARC a test of Pakistan's intentions.

Posting in full. My apologies if already posted:

He may have the will, but does he have a way?
MJ Akbar

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is juggling with a hydra-headed question that is both philosophical and practical. Worse, it is also immediate.

How much benefit should one give to doubt?

Doubt is theoretically equidistant from right and wrong, but in real life, there is evidence, evidence creates weightage, and the weight of evidence demands judgement. Doubt is the classic weapon of both spies and diplomats. They might as effectively sow it with violence, or plant it with a smile. Doubt is the one fully certain component of the Indo-Pak equation. Call this the first of many a paradox.

On his part, Mr Singh is committed to finding peace with Pakistan during his second term. He also knows that if he cannot find it soon, it will elude him later. That is yet another paradox. He was ready with a formula for such an excruciating dilemma in his speech in the Lok Sabha on July 29, bravely defending the joint statement with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani. He recalled Ronald Reagan’s useful corrective: Trust, but verify. An American President, alas for the rest of us, has options that others cannot claim. Reagan would not trust Col Muammar Gaddafi with a toy duck in a bathtub. When American intelligence satisfied the President with verification of Libya’s role in a terrorist incident, Reagan ordered up the Air Force, roused the ever-willing Mrs Margaret Thatcher, and bombed the capital of Libya back to the sand dunes. Col Gaddafi, living in a tent (a practice he has not given up), escaped but lost a daughter in that aerial bombardment. Reagan’s trust-verify relationship had a third dimension: Act. This is not readily available to Mr Singh.

A more relevant analogy may be Reagan’s arms talks with Leonid Brezhnev, where trust could be fused with verification. But here too we enter unique territory defined by a unique moment in history. The objective situation had changed. The USA and the USSR were no longer military equals. The Soviets might have had the nuclear capability to destroy the world, but nuclear arms are a deterrent, not a means of offence. The Vietnam syndrome had already been overtaken by the Afghanistan syndrome. One empire was cranking up. The other empire was winding down.

There are few practical means of verifying good or bad intentions on our jinxed subcontinent. There are so many wheels behind wheels in the terror juggernaut — we saw only the front end in Mumbai last November. Mr Singh might be generous enough to give Islamabad benefit of the doubt on the evidence of a dossier presented to him two days before he left for Egypt, but this dossier does not explain the non-arguments by the Government lawyer in the Lahore High Court that permitted Hafiz Saeed, leader of the Jamaat-ud-Dawa’h (the new name, a thin camouflage, which the Lashkar-e-Tayyeba has acquired upon being placed on the list of terrorist organisations by the United Nations). The Lahore High Court released Saeed because, while the official accusation linked him to Al Qaeda, “The security laws and anti-terrorism laws of Pakistan are silent on Al Qaeda being a terrorist organisation.” The dossier does list the few who have been arrested, but hundreds and thousands remain at liberty to plan and implement the next Mumbai. The India-baiters in Islamabad now have a tool as well — the Baluchistan clause in the joint statement.

The Jamaat-ud-Dawa’h tells any visiting journalist that there has been no change in its objective: To ‘liberate’ the Kashmir Valley from ‘Hindu rule’. They have not promised any concessions to a Sikh Prime Minister. To what extent is this still the policy of the Pakistan Government and its key military-intelligence wing? A clear and written answer to this question is the only thing that will eliminate doubts.

Are we likely to get an answer from Islamabad? First, we must ask the question:

Are there are any options in-between?

There is one option
, which no one seems to have investigated, possibly because it sounds too boring. But it can re-energise the impetus towards a visit by Mr Singh to Pakistan next year and a possible agreement. There are two distinct advantages to this option. It is relatively painless. And it can be done under a sort of cover since Islamabad might be reluctant to move into the limelight, carrying a perceived concession behind its back. Since the Indian reaction to the joint statement has created some strains upon the process of bilateral dialogue, this could be a useful methodology for India as well.

India and Pakistan should seek to solve some of their intermediary bilateral problems under the disguise of multilateral negotiations. This does not mean that Kashmir can be sorted out through a multilateral mechanism. There will be only two nations at the table when Kashmir is discussed. Nor is this an invitation to America to join the discussion party: The multilateral forum available to both is SAARC.

Pakistan has been holding up implementation of the South Asia Free Trade Agreement on one pretext or the other. Mr Singh’s first verification of trust could be Pakistani concurrence to SAFTA at the next SAARC summit, which he should hasten. In fact, he could even make it a priority, or even a precondition. Trade is a vital ingredient of peace-construction, because it creates masons on either side who are propelled into partnership by the common need for profit. Profit is a solid vested interest in conflict-resolution.

SAARC could also be a convenient medium for taking a few quantum leaps on terrorism protocol. When Gen Pervez Musharraf suggested that India and Pakistan should think out of the box he meant jumping out of the Kashmir box. SAARC creates an entirely new box completely. Mr Gilani can take cover from any local flak by explaining that the pressure of SAARC nations made it impossible for him to leave Pakistan in isolation. The public opinion created by SAARC decisions will reinforce the momentum that has been injected into the peace process by Mr Singh.

Mr Singh has made it clear to Parliament that he has the will. But without a way, his will will flounder.
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by JwalaMukhi »

http://news.rediff.com/report/2009/aug/ ... -sinha.htm
You had severely criticised the Sharm Al-Sheikh declaration, but Pakistan Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani has appreciated Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's [ Images ] bold vision on Indo-Pak relations.

If you have allowed him to walk away with the cake, he has to express his gratitude. Let's face it, Indo-Pak relations are not as simple as they are made out to be. These are the most complex bilateral relations in the world. Pakistan was born out of negation of the idea of India and things have not changed even 60 years later. Look at Parvez Musharraf's book. it is full of hatred for India. How can a former head of a country write such things? So, we must keep this reality in mind and never lower our guard while dealing with Pakistan. We must not follow the policy of peace with Pakistan at any cost. It will destroy India.
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by archan »

We must not follow the policy of peace with Pakistan at any cost. It will destroy India.
Did Sinha ji say the same things when he was a minister in ABV administration when some of the sincerest efforts to make peace with Pak were made?
That is what is sickening about politicians.
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by John Snow »

Lets say BJP/NDA were buffoons/bozos, but the Grand Ol party are supposed to be stalwarts in dealing Foreign Affairs (To that extent they even have foreign born naturalised citizen at the helm ) even then we have this kind of fiasco.

In case of BJP rule, uncle was just then into action and courting TSP ( John Mcain even said there is no game in town except TSP) hence sent Al Bin Povel and Rice to the occasion.

Since then TSP has scored a lot more human lives, and the "most daring operation Mubai Massacre" happened in their watch, so the oppositon is legitimate in asking why talk?
Last edited by John Snow on 03 Aug 2009 11:27, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by SSridhar »

The Shadow of S-e-S
A fine diplomat like Shiv Shankar Menon quits under a cloud because of the foolishness of somebody else.
According to sources, the Congress leadership is upset with Menon for not warning PM Manmohan Singh of the pitfalls of getting too pally with Islamabad when the neighbouring country has not done enough to allay India's concerns over terror.
There should no longer be any attempt to defend the S-e-S because it is clearly indefensible. We now know that the Congress leadership's spirited defence, which was not convincing at all either within the Parliament or outside, was just to close ranks and really not out of an appreciation of the chanakyanness of the PM and his MEA team. We should now try to see how to manage the fall-out of the humongous S-e-S blunder.
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by John Snow »

What are the significant contributions of Shiv Shankar meanon garu please?

Instead of being jettisoned by third rate politicians, our babus need to develop spine and call spade a spade , even if it is PM.

Most of the babus have grown in their areas of specialization ofcourse they need political god fathers but there is point at which they can throw the file/book and walk away... but those kind of gutsy adminstrators, judges are a vanishing breed... alas
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by SSridhar »

India sets the bar high for talks
The management of the S-e-S begins . . .
"There can't be any serious engagement with Pakistan if Saeed is allowed to go unpunished. For India, he has even more symbolic significance than Lakhvi and Shah because of his vituperative utterances in the past against us over the situation in J&K which have resulted in youths taking up arms against India,'' said a senior official.

In fact, it is now becoming increasingly clear that it is Saeed's future which will decide whether or not Pakistan led India up the garden path in Sharm el-Sheikh. While Singh emphasised "trust, but verify'', Congress president Sonia Gandhi, going by her speech on Friday, seemed to suggest verification first and thinking of trust later.

As BJP's Arun Jaitley has repeatedly pointed out, Sonia has so far not categorically stated that she or the party supports the Sharm el-Sheikh joint statement. Even the most ardent of Singh's supporters are finding it difficult to endorse the "badly drafted'' joint statement and it's clear that the document will be first put to test in the case of Saeed.
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by shiv »

There is a list of "standard Pakistani rhetoric" and "standard tactics" used by Pakistan to shift attention away from itself which should be clear to any Indian who deals with Pakistan:

1) XYZ will be "bad for the subcontinent/bad for India". This is a statement that India has never ever responded to in the manner that it deserves: "Paki - you need to talk about what is good for yourself and stop worrying about what is good or bad for India"

2) "Pakistan should be treated as an equal with India". Sorry Paki. You cannot hope to be equal to India and do not expect India to treat you as an equal.

3) "India is starting an arms race". A race requires two or more parties to take part. If Pakistan does no take part there will be no race, It becomes a race only because Pakistan is choosing to make it a race. India will do whatever it wants. If Pakistan wants to "race" there is no sense in blaming India.

4) India has multiple insurgencies: See point 1. You worry about yourself Paki, and India will do what it needs to do.

5) India has the greatest number of "poor/bad/illiterate/dying/HIV infested/malarial/you name it" in the world. Worry about yourself Paki. You need not worry about India as long as India is not increasing illiteracy/population etc in Pakistan.

6) India is trying to "destabilize" the subcontinent. Rubbish. The subcontinent is stable because of India.

7) Pakistan will never submit to Indian hegemony: Fine. OK so what's your problem?

8) India can never aspire to be a world power until the Kashmir problem is addressed. Paki - you need not worry about what India becomes or does not become in the world. India failure to reach any goals should no worry you. Kashmir is YOUR problem, and your problem will be solved to India's satisfaction.

9) As long as India aims to exert it hegemony and suppress the people of the subcontinent it will have to face problems like terrorism. If that is a prediction Paki - see point 1. You worry about yourself. India will do what it needs to do to solve its problems. If that statement is a threat you will be made to pay.
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by RamaY »

Shivji

good points. I never understood why not even one PM of India was that clear with Pakistan.
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by somnath »

From Outlook on seS

http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?261111

Most fo it is quite mundane, but look at this:
As for the inclusion of Balochistan in the statement, Aiyar sees it as “a confession by Pakistani PM (Yousuf Raza) Gilani that his government is not in control of vast swathes of its own territory, polity and society. I believe Gilani, by saying what he did on Balochistan, has edged us closer to resolving things by discussing issues regarded by either side as outstanding.”
Also, this is from The News..
http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=191144
The Indian establishment is taking immeasurable pride in letting everyone know that they will be willing to talk about Balochistan, its internal dimensions, and what may be causing the internal strife, and wherever possible help Pakistan out of the difficulty. I thought we were en route to talk about Kashmir, and its dynamics of freedom, and on how the people there deserve to seek their fundamental rights.
The fact is that by bringing a purely internal issue into bilteral mode, Pakistan is opening a can of worms...Its a bit like India agreeing to discuss Nagaland with Pakistan, or Assam..
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by John Snow »

Shiv ji pranam, that Uvacha of yours even parvathi was not privy to it. :mrgreen:
This is just the wisdom our Nai delli netas should memorize as Skanda purana ( dont mistake for purana as in old) but as a scripture.



Thanks a million.

***
kindly add one more sutra

so that it becomes

Shiv's Dasa Sutra of handling Mlechaas of paschim. :mrgreen: , even better if you add two more to make it truly aspicious of eka dasa sutra...
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by John Snow »

Aiyar is chamcha of higest order. thats a spin that has lost its turn
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by putnanja »

Everyone including SS Menon has accepted that it is a mistake. Obviously MMS and the government or the congress party cannot explicitly acknowledge it as a mistake so they have to defend the indefensible. As pointed out in various news articles, the congress party too hasn't explicitly endorsed the joint statement. So people trying to assign various strategic motives to the joint statement when it is just a poor stupid move on the govt's part is just a cover up and nothing more.
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by Raja Ram »

The Kanchan Gupta article quoted above has hit the nail on the head. This let down of India by the PM (It is now becoming very clear, that the PM did this onhis own accord and most probably against professional advice- the professionals should have come back and resigned, but that is another story) was because he was prepared to put Indian interests aside, at least temprorily, so that the requirements of the US were met.

If the US was so desperate to give some "relief" to Pakistan from India so that it can fight the taleban and Osama in order to let the US declare an honourable exit and leave Afghanistan, then the GOI should have demanded, at the very least, of handing over of terrorist masterminds residing in Pakistan to India for trial and closure of the terror machine. This would have to be something verifiable (by the US and/or India) and guaranteed by the US. Then GOI could have aceded for talks with Pakistan.

It is really surprising that a PM, touted to be the one with the best ever credentials to govern India, gave in so easily and agreed to crawl when asked to bend by the US. Conduct unbecoming of a PM of India.
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Re: Capitulation at Sharm el Sheikh

Post by enqyoob »

Verak:

Ok, so since we have established that you believe ManMohan Singh,

NO, that's a false interpretation, isn't it? I haven't said that I believe anyone except myself. YOU have said that if Groper Gilani says something, that proves that it is true. Small difference, hain?

Also, I don't see how what MMS is reported to have allegedly been quoted to have been suspected of saying, contradicts my interpretation. That statement alleges that MMS doesn't know of any INDIAN mischief in Balochistan, and INDIA is not afraid of Pakistan talking about Balochistan. Says NOTHING about what India thinks of American, Antarctican, Rwandan, Somalian or anyone else's activities in Afghanistan.
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