India-China News and Discussion

[pgbhat]

well, attack china across Himalays?

if invaders were to survive the highland effect and pneumatorexis,CHinese police would be happy to send them to labour camp.

well do you believe what Prachanda says??

[NRao]

Prachanda says India, US planned to attack China through Nepal

There you go. The cat is out of the bag.

well, attack china across Himalays?

if invaders were to survive the highland effect and pneumatorexis,CHinese police would be happy to send them to labour camp.

You see Chairman Mao forgot to add that in his Red Book, so Prachand never got brain washed on that one little item.

Chairman Mao also forgot to tell people how to run a coalition government within a democracy. Which is why Prachad failed. BUT, Chairman Mao did inform Prachand how to blame someone else - which is what Prachand is doing.

[Gerard]

Chinese warship to anchor at Indian port

A Chinese warship will make a “port call” at Kochi on the western coast Aug 8-12, reflecting China’s increasing interest in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), said an official. The Chinese guided-missile destroyer Shenzhen will visit Kochi after completing its anti-piracy mission in the Gulf of Aden.

[Anabhaya]

New Delhi, Aug 6 (PTI) On the eve of boundary talks, Minister of State for External Affairs Shashi Tharoor today said China has no "locus standi" on a key irrigation project in Arunachal Pradesh which it is opposing as the state is integral part of India.

Arunachal is integral part of India: Tharoor

BEIJING: China on Wednesday signaled its desire to adopt a friendlier diplomatic approach towards India as compared to its somewhat aggressive
stance in the past weeks. Zhang Yan, the Chinese ambassador in New Delhi, has lent his name to a highly favorable editorial published by People’s Daily on Wednesday.

Beijing does a U-turn, praises India-China bond

[brihaspati]

^ that means get ready for the pandragon's move against India, indirectly. Another terror strike in the offing? The days after 15th August?

[RajeshA]

The effort should be to avoid war with China for the next 20 years. We would have bridged the gap till then. We would have the bombs to reach Beijing, and we would have a BMD cover.

[brihaspati]

Pandragon could also be suddenly worried about the Ummah, in spite of massive sop operations, after the Uyghur tea-party. Hence the ploy of facile "love" to gain maximum advantage. This does not in anyway detract from hostile intent over the longer term.

[NRao]

That is one half of Chicom. But the other half still exists.

[VinodTK]

Sino-Indian boundary talks today

[svinayak]

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/ ... 723a2.html

Japan Times

Thursday, July 23, 2009

READERS IN COUNCIL
Hyped-up claims against China

By GREGORY CLARK
Tokyo

Regarding Brahma Chellaney's July 15 article, "China's false monoculture": Chellaney is entitled to his dislikes and suspicions of China, but he should not distort facts. He says that post-1949 China gobbled up India's 38,000-square-km Aksai China, part of the state of Jammu and Kashmir, to provide a route linking Tibet with Xinjiang. There are some problems with this statement:

• Most of Aksai China, the Tibet-Xinjiang route especially, lies north of the Himalayan watershed in this area.

• India did not discover the construction of this route until years after the event — proof positive that India was not in control of the area.

• The only pre-1949 border ever formally suggested for most of this area was the British proposal to China in 1899, to which China never responded. Imperialistic Britain at the time had a forward policy to forestall Russian ambitions in the area.

Even so, the 1899 proposal leaves most of the disputed territory under Chinese control. The Indian claim to this area relies on a highly distorted version of the 1899 proposal, as historian Alastair Lamb has pointed out.

• In exchange for its Aksai China claim, China has effectively conceded India's claim to the much more valuable NEFA (North East Frontier Area), grabbed by the British from a weak Tibet in 1914. The China India frontier war of 1962 occurred only after India pushed troops north even of the Indian-claimed NEFA frontier, as historian Neville Maxwell has pointed out.

Incidentally, Chellaney criticizes China's treatment of the Tibetan and Uighur peoples, but China's behavior pales in comparison with India's dismal record with the Muslim majority in Kashmir.
The opinions expressed in this letter to the editor are the writer's own and do not necessarily reflect the policies of The Japan Times.

was in response to:

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/ ... 715bc.html

Looks like the writer wants to compare a totalitarian one party ruled country with a democracy. Hypocrisy is open.
Also the writer thinks British history is Indian history

The writer does not even know that India had no border with China from Historical times.

[Dhiman]

• Most of Aksai China, the Tibet-Xinjiang route especially, lies north of the Himalayan watershed in this area.

J&K lies right below the Pamir knot and is the meeting place of several of the worlds highest mountain ranges including Himalayas, Hindu Kush, and Karakoram, so simply setting boundary based on Himalayas does not make any sense in this area. As far as I can see, authors assumption is flawed and leading towards wrong conclusions.

[RayC]

The effort should be to avoid war with China for the next 20 years. We would have bridged the gap till then. We would have the bombs to reach Beijing, and we would have a BMD cover.

It is not that India has to avoid.

China is equally desirable not to attack India! They are competing with the US and that is there prime concern.

The Chinese don't want to be diverted since they have a tunnel vision.

However, they will wax and wane on the Sino Indian issues so as to keep alive the disputes!

Clever little chaps!

The US is keen on the Tibet and Xinjiang issues.

Therefore, it will remain 'hot'and 'cold' and 'hot' again

China, having tasted the boon of capitalism has inherited the attendant problems of a totalitarian regime masquerading as a free economy.

The Chinese have always been petty bourgeoisie. They excel as shopkeepers. Making money through a sharp bargain is in their blood. Visit Malaysia or Singapore to see how they hassle you.

Greed is the by line.

This greed is now manifesting in China where they have no qualms of mixing melamine with milk. Life, is after all, cheap in China! There are also the immense bank frauds in the open and building collapsing like nine pins! Money is their God!

The US is encouraging all this so that the Chinese society is divided. Rural - Urban, Coastal - hinterland.

And now the ethnic problems.

The US has got China into a weapons race and that costs huge money, even if technologies are stolen!

Unless China introspect and correct the problems, they will go the USSR way!

[RajeshA]

This greed is now manifesting in China where they have no qualms of mixing melamine with milk. Life, is after all, cheap in China! There are also the immense bank frauds in the open and building collapsing like nine pins! Money is their God!

The US is encouraging all this so that the Chinese society is divided. Rural - Urban, Coastal - hinterland.

And now the ethnic problems.

The US has got China into a weapons race and that costs huge money, even if technologies are stolen!

Unless China introspect and correct the problems, they will go the USSR way!

RayC sir,
I still have to do some deeper analysis of PRC, so I can't make too many claims or prophesies.

But I don't think, the Chinese can go the way of the Soviet Union. They will also not lose the Arms Race. It is the Americans who in the long run cannot afford the Arms race, because of their trade and budget deficits. The Chinese have in the mean time a huge manufacturing base, and a captive world market, and it will continue to finance all Military and Space projects of PRC. What it needs is lots of energy for the equation!

So PRC's weak spots are actually its hold over the world market and the availability for raw materials.

India is in really a bad equation with China. We carry out $40 billion of trade with them. We export $8 billion, and import $32 billion. All we export is raw material, and all we import is finished products. This is as stupid as it gets. India is the country which cannot keep up an arms race with China, because even here we are the country doing all the importing and not building up our local arms manufacturing base.

Indian market is taking the easy way out. Many shopkeepers don't even worry about looking for local manufacturers. They just buy Chinese. We need to change that fundamentally.

We can push China into a spin, if we are able to attract the manufacturing base to India. Manufacturing with European quality, Indian Management and Bangladeshi costs in India should be our aim. The more the manufacturing moves to India, the less power is left with China. Many 'democracies' may not be averse to transfer production to India, if we can improve our infrastructure, streamline our legal processes, and liberalize our labor laws.

We have to move steadily from importing goods from China to exporting goods to China. Let us also stop exporting raw material to them. Pronto.

Only if India gets a better manufacturing base, retains a more agreeable, a more affable business relationship with the rest of the world, less confrontational, there is a good chance that some day we will have a bigger market share than China. That is when we will start winning.

The Doha talks are not in our favor. It only gives China more opportunity and a more better climate to continue exporting. We should have a Free Trade Agreement with Japan, EU, USA, Gulf and ASEAN, but no Global Comprehensive WTO.

[yogi]

New member, so apologies if I am posting in the wrong section.

I was recently checking Arunachal Pradesh out on Google Maps, and almost every place had a chinese name.

You can see what I mean by visiting this link http://maps.google.co.in/maps?q=chitrad ... =9&iwloc=A

Screenshot of it here http://twitpic.com/b7hsu/full

While I don't think the Chinese govt. made Google do this directly, what probably what happened is that Google has used some chinese map which showed Arunachal Pradesh as belonging to China.

Still, those of you who know about how disputed this region is, know that there is definitely no way we can allow this to stand, esp. on a site as popular and as heavily used as this.

So anybody has any idea how we can change this? I have tried to raise this with journalists I know. But journos these days have no appreciation of history. Historical claims have been made on our territory on flimsier grounds.

Anyway, if I huffing and puffing for nothing please do tell me so

I can swear that that was not there a few weeks ago.

Besides, Assam has it in Devanagari, and Arunachal P in Chinese!!

NRao ji,

I raised some flags on this issue on Jul 14 in this post. Now finally the news is all over the grapewine. Hopefully Indian babus will wake up and raid Google offices in Bangalore.

GUWAHATI: A huge controversy has erupted over Google satellite maps showing areas of Arunachal Pradesh in Mandarin rather than Hindi or English,
effectively making them appear as part of China. The changes were first noticed on Thursday, just hours before Friday’s crucial Sino-Indian talks over border dispute.

Apart from some major cities like Itanagar and Tawang, most other regions have been marked in Chinese. What’s more, the map shows Arunachal’s southern boundary with Assam and northern boundary with China in broken lines, while the state’s eastern and western boundaries with Bhutan and Myanmar are shown in continuous white lines.

There is suspicion in some quarters that Chinese trouble-makers may have hacked into Google and changed the names. Google authorities could not be contacted at the time of filing this report. The images have caused a flutter in New Delhi and Arunachal.

‘‘This is shocking. How could Google change the names of places of a sovereign country without the country’s knowledge?’’ fumed Congress’s West Arunachal MP Takam Sanjoy.

Former BJP MP from the state, Kiren Rijiju, said this was an old Chinese gameplan. ‘‘The Chinese know how to time their statements ahead of a bilateral meeting. This map surfaced just when the two countries were to discuss the border dispute. Had Google changed the names of Chinese locations, Beijing would have summoned Google officials. India, too, should deal with it firmly,’’ said Rijiju, who had raised the issue of Chinese military incursions in Arunachal in the Lok Sabha.

Sanjoy has informed AICC general secretary in charge of Arunachal, Narayan Swami, and urged the Centre to take action against Google.

‘‘The government should come out openly with its stand and take Google to task. Google must explain under what authority did they include Chinese language in Arunachal Pradesh’s map,’’ the MP said.

[Liu]

The effort should be to avoid war with China for the next 20 years. We would have bridged the gap till then. We would have the bombs to reach Beijing, and we would have a BMD cover.

on the contary ,the gap between India and CHna is going to be widened in the coming 10-20 years,IMHO.

of course, the gap will be diminished eventullly, but after all of us retire and our grandkids go to school..

[shiv]

of course, the gap will be diminished eventullly, but after all of us retire and our grandkids go to school..

You don't live in China because:
1) You are able to see and login to this forum
2) You speak of "grandkids". In China you can only have one "grandkid" and not "grandkids" unless you change the ChiCom policy or break the law after bribing a party official. Either way it does not suggest the outcome that you predict.

So kindly cut the rhetoric. Check your need to "appear strong" and talk about reality

[Liu]

This greed is now manifesting in China where they have no qualms of mixing melamine with milk. Life, is after all, cheap in China! There are also the immense bank frauds in the open and building collapsing like nine pins! Money is their God!

The US is encouraging all this so that the Chinese society is divided. Rural - Urban, Coastal - hinterland.

And now the ethnic problems.

The US has got China into a weapons race and that costs huge money, even if technologies are stolen!

Unless China introspect and correct the problems, they will go the USSR way!

RayC sir,
I still have to do some deeper analysis of PRC, so I can't make too many claims or prophesies.

But I don't think, the Chinese can go the way of the Soviet Union. They will also not lose the Arms Race. It is the Americans who in the long run cannot afford the Arms race, because of their trade and budget deficits. The Chinese have in the mean time a huge manufacturing base, and a captive world market, and it will continue to finance all Military and Space projects of PRC. What it needs is lots of energy for the equation!

So PRC's weak spots are actually its hold over the world market and the availability for raw materials.

India is in really a bad equation with China. We carry out $40 billion of trade with them. We export $8 billion, and import $32 billion. All we export is raw material, and all we import is finished products. This is as stupid as it gets. India is the country which cannot keep up an arms race with China, because even here we are the country doing all the importing and not building up our local arms manufacturing base.

Indian market is taking the easy way out. Many shopkeepers don't even worry about looking for local manufacturers. They just buy Chinese. We need to change that fundamentally.

We can push China into a spin, if we are able to attract the manufacturing base to India. Manufacturing with European quality, Indian Management and Bangladeshi costs in India should be our aim. The more the manufacturing moves to India, the less power is left with China. Many 'democracies' may not be averse to transfer production to India, if we can improve our infrastructure, streamline our legal processes, and liberalize our labor laws.

We have to move steadily from importing goods from China to exporting goods to China. Let us also stop exporting raw material to them. Pronto.

Only if India gets a better manufacturing base, retains a more agreeable, a more affable business relationship with the rest of the world, less confrontational, there is a good chance that some day we will have a bigger market share than China. That is when we will start winning.

The Doha talks are not in our favor. It only gives China more opportunity and a more better climate to continue exporting. We should have a Free Trade Agreement with Japan, EU, USA, Gulf and ASEAN, but no Global Comprehensive WTO.

improving india's infrastructure is just one aspects. it is also very important to get rid of the
bureaucratism of india's administrations.

frankly speaking, CHinese administrations is much more efficient than most other countries,including India.

in order to attract more investment ,all chinese mayors try their best to create the business-friendly circumstance----tax-vacation,low-cost land,ready real-estimates, and quick registration. Chinese officals always try their best to get rid of obstables of businessmen.

Chinese officals may be corrupted, but they are also efficient too.

[NRao]

Chinese officals may be corrupted, but they are also efficient too.

Oil and water.

Perhaps efficient to assist their "corrupt"? Or efficiently corrupt?

Time will tell, but, seriously, there is still the option that much of China is not transparent enough for any of us to make a good judgment.

[shiv]

Chinese officals may be corrupted, but they are also efficient too.

Interesting. This is sideways praise of corruption. "It is OK to be corrupt if you are efficient". This policy can go only so far and no further.

1 billion is a large number. 1.2 billion is even bigger. As long as one's new clothes are clean one can continue to praise oneself.

[NRao]

on the contary ,the gap between India and CHna is going to be widened in the coming 10-20 years,IMHO.

Possible.

Unless Indians wake up. And certainly if the Communist Party of India (CPI) is defeated badly - you can already witness the change right now (in decision making) when the CPI cannot influence politics.

Have you thought of the age distribution in the two nations?

[Liu]

of course, the gap will be diminished eventullly, but after all of us retire and our grandkids go to school..

You don't live in China because:
1) You are able to see and login to this forum
2) You speak of "grandkids". In China you can only have one "grandkid" and not "grandkids" unless you change the ChiCom policy or break the law after bribing a party official. Either way it does not suggest the outcome that you predict.

So kindly cut the rhetoric. Check your need to "appear strong" and talk about reality

1.now,I indeed live in china now, in a grade c city in hinterland of China.
the great firewall don't think BR is a trouble, and all chinese can easily see and login to this forum.
you wrong understanding of CHinese webs obvioulsy are misled by west medias. west medias are just the cousins of CCP's throats like CCTV. they are full of prejudges and brainwashs like CCTV and lead you nowhere.


2. well "one kid policy" is not as strict as before.
ethnnic minorities like Uyghuy,tibet and Manchus are excempt from "one kid policy".
rural Chinese are allowed to had 2 children too.
Urban chinese also are allowed to have 2 childern ,if both the husband and the wife have no brothers/sisters.

if you still think "one kid policy" is as firm as before, then it just proves west medias succeed in misleading you again.


3. if Chinese government can succeed in "one kid policy",what makes you think chinese government can not carry out " two kids policy" or "3 kids policy"?

chinese policy on birth is " population-control policy" . here ,"populaton-control" is not equal to " one kid policy" naturely
Once chinese government feel CHina needs more chinese babies, it is not strange at all that "2 kids policy" or "3 kids policy" will be carry out!@

[shiv]

2. well "one kid policy" is not as strict as before.
ethnnic minorities like Uyghuy,tibet and Manchus are excempt from "one kid policy".
rural Chinese are allowed to had 2 children too.
Urban chinese also are allowed to have 2 childern ,if both the husband and the wife have no brothers/sisters.

if you still think "one kid policy" is as firm as before, then it just proves west medias succeed in misleading you again.

My dear man, it is China's media that is misleading. China hides its warts and publicizes its successes.

What is the current population of China? What is the expected population if the policy is reversed?
i believe you may be bluffing. There was some talk in the media of a reversal of China's once child policy but there is no official confirmation.

Did you bribe an efficient official for this info?

[Liu]

on the contary ,the gap between India and CHna is going to be widened in the coming 10-20 years,IMHO.

Possible.

Unless Indians wake up. And certainly if the Communist Party of India (CPI) is defeated badly - you can already witness the change right now (in decision making) when the CPI cannot influence politics.

Have you thought of the age distribution in the two nations?

my prediction:

In 2020, CHina's per nominal GDP will be 10000-15000 USD and can be looked on as " quasi industrialized countries".
At that time, mainland CHinese people's life quality will be equal to Taiwanese and S.Korean today.


In 2020 ,India's nominal GDP may be 2500-3500 USD.but the wealth disparity in India will be more terrible. Indian steet beggars will not decrease but more India millionnairs will appear.
there will be more skyscrapers in Indian big cities but there will also be more slums there.

[Liu]

2. well "one kid policy" is not as strict as before.
ethnnic minorities like Uyghuy,tibet and Manchus are excempt from "one kid policy".
rural Chinese are allowed to had 2 children too.
Urban chinese also are allowed to have 2 childern ,if both the husband and the wife have no brothers/sisters.

if you still think "one kid policy" is as firm as before, then it just proves west medias succeed in misleading you again.

My dear man, it is China's media that is misleading. China hides its warts and publicizes its successes.

What is the current population of China? What is the expected population if the policy is reversed?
i believe you may be bluffing. There was some talk in the media of a reversal of China's once child policy but there is no official confirmation.

Did you bribe an efficient official for this info?

1.chinese governmental medias indeed tend to mislead people,just as its west cousins like CNN and BBC do.
however, most chinese hardly trust chinese governmental medias fully. many chinese like me often lean news by internet communities and real-time communication tools like ICQ and QQ.

2. the reversal of "one-kid policy" has be carried out in rural china for long times.
Chinese ethnic minorities like Uyghur and Tibetan have been exempt for "one-kid policy" since begining.

those "west media's compeltely BUllshit about those cases, because they are more interested to have "one kid policy" as a tool to bash CCP,than to report the truth.

[brihaspati]

Thanks Liu!
The Chinese should continue to believe in their own propaganda. Thats the best that can happen to Indians, if they also believe in the same propaganda of increasing gaps and falling behind. As far as I know everytime, a central/southern Chinese kingdom/empire fell, it always fell before a more "primitive", "backward" and "barbarian" society. Those who fall behind are driven forward by jealousy, and they also need less to survive. This is good!

[Liu]

Thanks Liu!
The Chinese should continue to believe in their own propaganda. Thats the best that can happen to Indians, if they also believe in the same propaganda of increasing gaps and falling behind. As far as I know everytime, a central/southern Chinese kingdom/empire fell, it always fell before a more "primitive", "backward" and "barbarian" society. Those who fall behind are driven forward by jealousy, and they also need less to survive. This is good!

does china need any propaganda?

the world-class infrastructurs ,powerful manufacuturing and "made in china "all over the world have "propaganda" our achievement enough.

we will overthrew the west-led world and the crankiness by our economy development,instead of military force.

[NRao]

my prediction:

In 2020, CHina's per nominal GDP will be 10000-15000 USD and can be looked on as " quasi industrialized countries".
At that time, mainland CHinese people's life quality will be equal to Taiwanese and S.Korean today.

In 2020 ,India's nominal GDP may be 2500-3500 USD.but the wealth disparity in India will be more terrible. Indian steet beggars will not decrease but more India millionnairs will appear.
there will be more skyscrapers in Indian big cities but there will also be more slums there.

From what little I have read that seems to be the general consensus. However, what I am suggesting is that China is not being honest in her accounting. Which is what I referred to as "transparency".

You observation of the disparity within India IMHO is sadly true. However, I am not sure if you have followed events in the past month or two - there is a very large, huge in fact, sums allocated to infrastructure development - more than a $100 Billion just for roads (actually since Indian companies cannot complete this task, the GoI has invited foreign companies - which is very, very rare for the GoI to do). Electrification is another element that should show some dividends.

However, poverty, like you say, will remain a concern.

But, my argument is that the computed disparity - between India and China - IMHO is not as bad as it is made out to be. There is plenty of inflationary figures in the Chinese data. The good is inflated to make it look better than ground reality and the bad is deflated even more.

Well, let us see what happens.

All the best.

[brihaspati]

Dear Liu,
No need to get defensive! I actually paid a complement. India has its own plans too, even if handicapped a bit by its democracy. Spectacular developments under dictatorial regimes have always been heavily mixed up with heavy doses of propaganda - which become apparent when the regimes topple and the society unravels all of a sudden. Under the Nazis, Germany had spectacular developments in infrastructure and other areas. Under Stalin, USSR was fantastic.

We will meet in 2020 then, and exchange notes! But I am not sure that the current Chinese regime and system will last beyond 2030. When it topples, it will take decades to bring back all the broken pieces.

[PratikDas]

Not sure if this is the right thread for this...

Google shows parts of Arunachal in Chinese

[Liu]

my prediction:

In 2020, CHina's per nominal GDP will be 10000-15000 USD and can be looked on as " quasi industrialized countries".
At that time, mainland CHinese people's life quality will be equal to Taiwanese and S.Korean today.

In 2020 ,India's nominal GDP may be 2500-3500 USD.but the wealth disparity in India will be more terrible. Indian steet beggars will not decrease but more India millionnairs will appear.
there will be more skyscrapers in Indian big cities but there will also be more slums there.

From what little I have read that seems to be the general consensus. However, what I am suggesting is that China is not being honest in her accounting. Which is what I referred to as "transparency".

You observation of the disparity within India IMHO is sadly true. However, I am not sure if you have followed events in the past month or two - there is a very large, huge in fact, sums allocated to infrastructure development - more than a $100 Billion just for roads (actually since Indian companies cannot complete this task, the GoI has invited foreign companies - which is very, very rare for the GoI to do). Electrification is another element that should show some dividends.

However, poverty, like you say, will remain a concern.

But, my argument is that the computed disparity - between India and China - IMHO is not as bad as it is made out to be. There is plenty of inflationary figures in the Chinese data. The good is inflated to make it look better than ground reality and the bad is deflated even more.

Well, let us see what happens.

All the best.

I don't think that chinese offical statistic is "inflated".on the contary, it is "deflated".

1. I have been to Hongkong . Hongkongese per nominal GDP is 3-4 times more than that of Grade A cities in mainland CHina.
However, I don't think that Hongkongese have a better life quality than Grade A cities.

2 many chinese tourists just wow " why "10000+ USD of per nominal GDP" "industrialized econimies" look so crappy, after they visit east europe,S.korea and Taiwan.
most of chinese tourists feel that the cities in east europe,S.korea and Taiwan are "outdated" and the infrastructure there are "timeworn" ,although their nominal GDP is 3-6 times more than mainland china .


3. many chinese tourists just feel it a joke that Turkey's nominal GDP is 4 times more than China,after they visit Istanbul .


4. Chinese local officials indeed have motives to "inflate" the data,but such "inflate" is not very successful.

[PratikDas]

^ that means get ready for the pandragon's move against India, indirectly. Another terror strike in the offing? The days after 15th August?

Great foresight brihaspati. Looks like this is China's move:

Not sure if this is the right thread for this...

Google shows parts of Arunachal in Chinese

[Suraj]

The transition from lower-middle income to middle to high income is seldom smooth for a large country. There is a point where the the cost-effectiveness of low-cost manufacturing becomes sufficiently eroded that it is no longer viable, and higher cost/tech manufacturing and related industries simply cannot absorb the large population hitherto occupied by the low cost manufacturing engine. The transition is easier for smaller nations, i.e. smaller populations. There are several cases of countries whose growth matures once they reach $3-4K/capita, and it takes a sustained push to increase it further. I would hestitate to draw a linear growth projection for any large nation at those critical transition points. Besides, there's only so much you can keep knocking down bridges and rebuilding them.

On another point, the comparative age of Chinese infrastructure is way less than that of other mature economies, and it is natural that the former appears fresher. It applies just as well as India builds its infrastructure, which will then of course be newer than the Chinese one, making the latter look jaded. For example, someone taking a flight to Germany or France from the massive new Delhi airport terminal 3 when it is completed next summer, will very likely find Frankfurt or Paris airports to be crap in comparison. Building infrastructure isn't necessarily an insurmountable exercise in India. Delhi, for example, had 0kms of metro as of end of 2002, and will have about 200kms by end of 2010.

[Hari Seldon]

For example, someone taking a flight to Germany or France from the massive new Delhi airport terminal 3 when it is completed next summer, will very likely find Frankfurt or Paris airports to be crap in comparison.

Frankfurt airport is cr@p. period. Bottled water, <1 liter, cost 4.75 euros. No water fountains to drink from anywhere around, besides. Makes one wonder what kinda tax and disincentive structure there must be for the emerged euro mkts to price bottled water the way they did. In comparison, the in the khanate, you can peacefully buy a gallon of mineral water in less money. Less said about yindia the better.

Anyway, the advantage the chinis have extends beyond the airport terminal, sadly. Our traffic lights are alight with mendicants of all varieties, the slums are very much in view (it is reality and yindia doesn't believe in hiding its poverty, fair enough), the traffic so chaotic that the relative smoothness, shininess and slick efficiency of the chini model will, on first impression, appeal more anyday to the novice visitor.

No, the only things that can stop the chini juggernaut is energy cources running out. Peak oil plunging fast would be the #1 threat, IMHO.

[Suraj]

My point is that infrastructure is comparatively easy to change. And yes, that includes roads, despite what some may argue. India actually has significantly improved inter-city roads now, and with Kamal Nath in charge, the prognosis is even better. The weak spot is our intra-city road systems, but I believe even that will change, with Delhi predictably leading the way. While many may complain about favouritism towards Delhi from GoI, I don't see it moving ahead as all that negative, because it will add popular pressures to improve other cities.

I'm not too concerned about slums. Has anyone seen the 'Police Story' movies series from the late 1980s ? There's this classic chase scene in that movie where Jackie Chan gets chased through this big slum in Hong Kong. I've never seen HKers being terribly apologetic about them. I don't see why we should. I am not going to waste my time explaining 'India is a democracy, can't kick them out, etc'. For one, slums like Dharavi also generate significant economic output, with Dharavi's output alone being in the $2 billion range. As the city develops, and real estate development continues, they'll progressively be priced out, and in any case, their occupants will have become wealthy enough and have access to better quality housing, to live better.

The point Liu makes in particular is about quality of infrastructure and associated quality of life, that that's absolutely true. I also believe that there's sufficient impatience and desire amongst Indians for better QoL today that improvements won't be as linear as in some past period of reference. There'll always be a degree of chaos about Indian development, and even when we develop, city roads will be more similar those of Barcelona or Rome, than the planned Chinese ones, except maybe in a grid-based city like Navi Mumbai or Chandigarh.

[Liu]

The transition from lower-middle income to middle to high income is seldom smooth for a large country. There is a point where the the cost-effectiveness of low-cost manufacturing becomes sufficiently eroded that it is no longer viable, and higher cost/tech manufacturing and related industries simply cannot absorb the large population hitherto occupied by the low cost manufacturing engine. The transition is easier for smaller nations, i.e. smaller populations. There are several cases of countries whose growth matures once they reach $3-4K/capita, and it takes a sustained push to increase it further. I would hestitate to draw a linear growth projection for any large nation at those critical transition points. Besides, there's only so much you can keep knocking down bridges and rebuilding them.

On another point, the comparative age of Chinese infrastructure is way less than that of other mature economies, and it is natural that the former appears fresher. It applies just as well as India builds its infrastructure, which will then of course be newer than the Chinese one, making the latter look jaded. For example, someone taking a flight to Germany or France from the massive new Delhi airport terminal 3 when it is completed next summer, will very likely find Frankfurt or Paris airports to be crap in comparison. Building infrastructure isn't necessarily an insurmountable exercise in India. Delhi, for example, had 0kms of metro as of end of 2002, and will have about 200kms by end of 2010.

well, case is beyond the "infrastructure"


many countries have higher "nominal GDP" than China.

for example,

Algeria,turkey, Chile,Poland. their nominal GDP are all 5000-15000 USD while China's per nominal GDP is just 3500 USD.

however, most chinese tourist just wow " how can those countries are more developed than China?" ,after they visit those countries.

impression one: Chinese visitor's fiirst impression on those countries is that their infrastructures are much less advanced than China ..

impression two: their second impression is that the real life quality in those countries in fact is quite similar with CHinese's, as a whole.
however, Chinese grade A cities and costal rural area have better life quality than cities in those countries.
Their nominal average income may be a bit more than CHinese's but the price index in those countries are much more expensive than China's.

impression three: however, most those countires have better social security system than china. everyone,whethere they are rural people or urban peope,have pension and free medical cares while only urban chinese can have them.

[Suraj]

Absolutely, when you develop infrastructure quickly, it is very easy to compare it to an established economy and interpret the developing nation to have comparable or better attributes in that regard. Nothing wrong with that - I just mentioned the example of the new Delhi airport and some older European one. But there's a lot more to wealth and quality of life than merely the visible infrastructure in a big city. While Chinese visitors may see Chinese cities comparably fresher infrastructure, hundreds of thousands of Chinese still emigrate every year to those same western nations. There's a good recent why they continue to do so, despite the strides China has made, and that is that there's a lot more to quality of life, that a superficial view of Istanbul or Paris doesn't address.

[Liu]

Absolutely, when you develop infrastructure quickly, it is very easy to compare it to an established economy and interpret the developing nation to have comparable or better attributes in that regard. Nothing wrong with that - I just mentioned the example of the new Delhi airport and some older European one. But there's a lot more to wealth and quality of life than merely the visible infrastructure in a big city. While Chinese visitors may see Chinese cities comparably fresher infrastructure, hundreds of thousands of Chinese still emigrate every year to those same western nations. There's a good recent why they continue to do so, despite the strides China has made, and that is that there's a lot more to quality of life, that a superficial view of Istanbul or Paris doesn't address.

you misunderstand me. I just prove that China's stastic is not "inflated" ,but "deflated".

those "upper mid-income economies" or "moderate industrialzied economies" like east Europe, ,Turkey and Chile in fact are not "more developed " than CHina,although their "per nominal GDP" is 5000-20000 USD and much more than CHina's.



However, compared with those mature industrialized economies like north America, west Europe and Japan, CHina still has long way to go,from the infrastructures ,industry to social security system.

[RayC]

on the contary ,the gap between India and CHna is going to be widened in the coming 10-20 years,IMHO.

of course, the gap will be diminished eventullly, but after all of us retire and our grandkids go to school..

China has troubled times ahead.

The urban - rural divide is a huge problem and unless money is spent to uplift the rural population and bring them at par with the urban population, China will find it difficult to check the social unrest. As it is, the CCP is diverting funds from other productive sectors to address this issue.

Similarly, the disparity between interior and coastal China is huge. There is unrest because of this inequality and hence funds will have to be diverted.

It must be understood, that China and the CCP value stability and law and order since the CCP is very sensitive as such turmoil makes the Communist straps very vulnerable and uneasy as these are signs of democratic upheavals that a totalitarian regime can hardly accept.

Guizhao, Guangxi, Yunan, Sichuan, Gansu, Ningxia are the poorest provinces in China. While the Hui (Muslims) are shufan (cooked barbarians), the Uighurs continue to be shengfan (raw barbarians). The Muslims of China are mostly from the poorest areas of China. I am sure that the impoverished Muslims are not amused because of the regional disparity or the fact that the Hans are doing better than Huis in their own provinces. Xinjaing is an example of Islamic anger where disparity and inequality took a religious hue. With the pan Islamist wave sweeping the world, China has just got a dose of it in Xinjiang. It cost money to control insurgency and there is always the fear that the impoverished Muslims suddenly become Born Again types. As it is clandestine mosques are operating in the homes of people as is happening amongst the Christian Chinese.

Therefore, much funds will have to be diverted to quell the apprehensions of the Muslims and other minorities, including the Tibetans. After all the Chinese philosophy is to Han-ise non Hans and make them 'cooked barbarians'.

I am aware that the CCP has ingrained in the Chinese psyche the fascination of statistic. I am sure you will reproduce some. I don't believe the Chinese govt as much as the Chinese don't believe their govt.

This is from China Daily:
Prostitutes are more trustworthy than government officials, Chinese survey finds

[Suraj]

you misunderstand me. I just prove that China's stastic is not "inflated" ,but "deflated".

those "upper mid-income economies" or "moderate industrialzied economies" like east Europe, ,Turkey and Chile in fact are not "more developed " than CHina,although their "per nominal GDP" is 5000-20000 USD and much more than CHina's.

However, compared with those mature industrialized economies like north America, west Europe and Japan, CHina still has long way to go,from the infrastructures ,industry to social security system.

I disagree. It would seem the Chinese perspective of 'development' hinges largely on how superficially nice a city is to look at. There's a good reason why countries like Turkey, Czech Rep, Hungary or Chile have significantly higher per capita incomes than China, that you cannot discount because a few Chinese cities have nice roads and bridges. These countries are significantly richer both in absolute and PPP terms, that even the higher relative cost of living does not negate.

[Dhiman]

those "upper mid-income economies" or "moderate industrialzied economies" like east Europe, ,Turkey and Chile in fact are not "more developed " than CHina,although their "per nominal GDP" is 5000-20000 USD and much more than CHina's.

I don't think you understand the ramifications of what you are saying, but without getting into too many details the reason you see this difference between Turkey/Chile and China is because the Chinese government has artificially fixed the exchange rate of Yuan with US dollar. If Chinese government allowed the Yuan to float, Chinese exports would become more expensive to the outside world and hence exports would decrease.

A decrease in export would also decrease employment in China's export oriented economy and increase instability as western companies would find it more attractive to manufacture goods elsewhere. So whether you like to believe it or not, there is some truth behind the fact that growth statistics that Chinese government puts out is "cooked" just like the Yuan-to-dollar exchange rate

Unlike the Yuan, the Indian Rupee is a partially floated currency. This means that in general the exchange rate of Rupee is determined more-or-less by the market, but the Indian government does step in to control volatility in the currency markets.

chinese governmental medias indeed tend to mislead people,just as its west cousins like CNN and BBC do.

Chinese government media tells people what to think. Western cousins such as CNN and BBC try to influence what people think. Unlike in China there are also non-mainstream media in west which is generally more trustworthy than western mainstream media such as CNN, BBC, etc. While Chinese media is directly controlled by the government, western media is under indirect control. On the other hand Indian media guards its independence fiercely and in my opinion does not try to influence people like the Chinese or the Western media does. Perhaps the only bad part about the Indian media is that they tend to sensationalize things too much many times. In general, Indian media is much more trustworthy that either western "mainstream" media or Chinese media.

on the contary ,the gap between India and CHna is going to be widened in the coming 10-20 years,IMHO. of course, the gap will be diminished eventullly, but after all of us retire and our grandkids go to school..

What is important is that China wants to rise up to dominate the world; while as, India wants to rise up to make the world a more equitable and better place. And this is the exact reason why the world welcomes India's rise; while as, China's rise is looked upon with apprehension. If I was Chinese government, I would be thinking hard as to why people in the rest of the world view China's rise with apprehension; while as, people in the rest in the world genreally have a very positive view of India's rise.

Whatever the gap with GDP might be, it is irrelevant.