India-China News and Discussion

RayC · Post by **RayC** » 10 Aug 2009 13:51

China should break up India: Chinese strategist

Almost coinciding with the 13th round of Sino-Indian border talks (New Delhi [ Images ], August 7-8, 2009), an article (in the Chinese language) has appeared in China captioned 'If China takes a little action, the so-called Great Indian Federation can be broken up' (Zhong Guo Zhan Lue Gang, www.iiss.cn, Chinese, August 8, 2009).

Interestingly, it has been reproduced in several other strategic and military Web sites of the country and by all means, targets the domestic audience. The authoritative host site is located in Beijing [ Images ] and is the new edition of one, which so far represented the China International Institute for Strategic Studies (www.chinaiiss.org).

Claiming that Beijing's 'China-Centric' Asian strategy, provides for splitting India, the writer of the article, Zhan Lue (strategy), has found that New Delhi's corresponding 'India-Centric' policy in Asia, is in reality a 'Hindustan centric' one. Stating that on the other hand 'local centres' exist in several of the country's provinces (excepting for the UP and certain northern regions), Zhan Lue has felt that in the face of such local characteristics, the 'so-called' Indian nation cannot be considered as one having existed in history.

According to the article, if India today relies on any thing for unity, it is the Hindu religion. The partition of the country was based on religion. Stating that today nation states are the main current in the world, it has said that India could only be termed now as a 'Hindu religious state'. Adding that Hinduism is a decadent religion as it allows caste exploitation and is unhelpful to the country's modernisation, it described the Indian government as one in a dilemma with regard to eradication of the caste system as it realises that the process to do away with castes may shake the foundation of the consciousness of the Indian nation.

The writer has argued that in view of the above, China in its own interest and the progress of Asia, should join forces with different nationalities like the Assamese, Tamils, and Kashmiris and support the latter in establishing independent nation-States of their own, out of India. In particular, the ULFA (United Liberation Front of Asom) in Assam, a territory neighboring China, can be helped by China so that Assam realises its national independence.

The article has also felt that for Bangladesh, the biggest threat is from India, which wants to develop a great Indian Federation extending from Afghanistan to Myanmar. India is also targeting China with support to Vietnam's efforts to occupy Nansha (Spratly) group of islands in South China Sea.

Hence the need for China's consolidation of its alliance with Bangladesh, a country with which the US and Japan [ Images ] are also improving their relations to counter China.

It has pointed out that China can give political support to Bangladesh enabling the latter to encourage ethnic Bengalis in India to get rid of Indian control and unite with Bangladesh as one Bengali nation; if the same is not possible, creation of at least another free Bengali nation state as a friendly neighbour of Bangladesh, would be desirable, for the purpose of weakening India's expansion and threat aimed at forming a 'unified South Asia'.

The punch line in the article has been that to split India, China can bring into its fold countries like Pakistan, Nepal and Bhutan, support ULFA in attaining its goal for Assam's independence, back aspirations of Indian nationalities like the Tamils and Nagas, encourage Bangladesh to give a push to the independence of West Bengal [ Images ] and lastly recover the 90,000 sq km territory in southern Tibet [ Images ].

Wishing for India's break-up into 20 to 30 nation-States like in Europe, the article has concluded by saying that if the consciousness of nationalities in India could be aroused, social reforms in South Asia can be achieved, the caste system can be eradicated and the region can march along the road of prosperity.

The Chinese article in question will certainly outrage readers in India. Its suggestion that China can follow a strategy to dismember India, a country always with a tradition of unity in diversity, is atrocious, to say the least. The write-up could not have been published without the permission of the Chinese authorities, but it is sure that Beijing will wash its hands out of this if the matter is taken up with it by New Delhi.

It has generally been seen that China is speaking in two voices -- its diplomatic interlocutors have always shown understanding during their dealings with their Indian counterparts, but its selected media is pouring venom on India in their reporting. Which one to believe is a question confronting the public opinion and even policy makers in India.

In any case, an approach of panic towards such outbursts will be a mistake, but also ignoring them will prove to be costly for India.

D S Rajan, is Director, Chennai Centre for China Studies.China should break up India

ashish raval · Post by **ashish raval** » 10 Aug 2009 14:24

^^ I dont have a shred of doubt that china dont have or will have any capability to break up India using Internal/External force or combined one. Rather I would say, If India tries harder, it can break up china into atleast 5 nations, 1) Xinjiang 2) Tibet 3) South china (cantonese speaking) 4) Taiwan (which is already a nation) and 5) Remaining china (han nation).

China has done itself an enormous harm by settling outsiders into Tibet and Uighur territory, I believe that Uighur movement will take the form of Tibet movement + Violence which will be a rather painful future for chinese. It is surrounded by American allies 1) Mangolia 2) Taiwan 3) Japan and South-East asia to an extent. The only strong point for its survival is its Atomic power, extra-judicial killings and Security council veto power. China has never been one country in the past. If West decides to pursue democracy vehemently into china, it will implode. West does not do it whole heartedly because current communists are favourable to their world design and does not interefere. The moment it will do, her day of reckoning will arrive. It will take just one bad ruler in china to get it implode and collapse. I think communism will not survive more than 50 years from now in china.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 10 Aug 2009 20:02

It is an inspired lie that China's harmonious rise is disbelieved in Asia. Chinese soft power, cultural influence, awe-inspiring ascendancy and the optimistic con fidence it inspires is in full display in this article.

China Backs Off Latest Rio Tinto Claims

Chinese government officials backed away from allegations that Rio Tinto cost the country more than $100 billion by stealing state secrets, saying they were the views of one employee.

See how understanding, compassionate, sweet and reasonable the Chinese are in reality? Who can argue against such sweet reasonableness, pray??

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 10 Aug 2009 20:14

Rishirishi wrote: Very valid point. I have been to China several times. Visited cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Xiamen, Shenzen, Guangzhou. Have visted the inner parts of the cities, as well as the modern parts.
yes, the new chinease sicites look very good. they surpass anything that is found in the west. They are modelled in Singapore style, with clean wide expressways and well maintained gardens. Modern impressive buildeing etc.

But try to go one block inside from the main road, and suddenly you will feel you are in old Delhi. It does not cost a whole lot to raise old neigbour hoods and replace them with tall wellplanned buildings. But all this does little to improve the living standards. The only real mesure of wealth creation is mesuring what the residents actually can afford. Chinease wages are lower then in India. Earnings of 1 lack per month in India, is getting fairly usual. You will not find that in China. The wages are rising faster in India.

nonsense just discredits youself.

1. according to economy common sense, the average monthly salary usually is equal to about 70 % of per nominal GDP.

For example,
USA's per nominal GDP is about 40000 USD, then the average yearly salary of Yankees should be about 28000 USD . that is 2333 USD/ per month. if the husband and wife both have a job, then one yankee's families' average monthly income should be about 4666 USD. that is 23,3300 rupees/ month.

CHina's per nominal GDP is 3500 USD,then the average yearly salary of chinese should be about 2450 USD . that is 200 USD/ per month. if the husband and wife both have a job, then one chinese families' average monthly income should be about 400 USD. that is 20,000 Rupees/month.

India's per nominal GDP is 1000 USD,then the average yearly salary of one India should be about 700 USD . that is 58 USD/ per month. if the husband and wife both have a job, then one Indian families' average monthly income should be about 120 USD. that is 6,000 Rupees/month.

2.I doubt Earnings of 1 lack per month in India,

if I am not mistaken ,1 lakh/per month= 100,000 Rupee/ per month= 2000 USD/ per month= 14500 RMB/per month.

so according to you word, many indian people can earn 24000 USD every year.

However, as I know, Indian per nominal GDP is ony about 1000 USD.

24,000 USD is 24 time more than the per nominal GDP of one indian people.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 10 Aug 2009 20:37

in a bid to counter the juvenile article by the chinese 'researcher' (who I suspect is a regular reader of deff and dumb) let's not make similar juvenile posts ourselves.

phenomenon like splits of an apparently stable country have a long gestation period and require dedicated analysis of a wealth of issues over a long period of time to even approach somewhere near an understanding.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 10 Aug 2009 20:41

ashish raval wrote:^^ I dont have a shred of doubt that china dont have or will have any capability to break up India using Internal/External force or combined one. Rather I would say, If India tries harder, it can break up china into atleast 5 nations, 1) Xinjiang 2) Tibet 3) South china (cantonese speaking) 4) Taiwan (which is already a nation) and 5) Remaining china (han nation).

It is not about China but China joining with Unkil and Pakistan to achieve their goal.

rohiths · Post by **rohiths** » 10 Aug 2009 21:28

Deleted

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 10 Aug 2009 21:32

rohit, please move your post to some appropriate thread and keep this one restricted to Indo-chinese relations. kindly delete the above post after you do so.
thanks for co-operating.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 10 Aug 2009 21:54

Folks, instead of getting defensive about the Chinese 'we must break up India' article, see it as what it is - a Chinese rehash of the Paki wet dreams for the last 60 years, and before that, the British presumption of the fate that they imagined would befall India within a decade of independence.

There's far too much deference given to this sort of nonsense. You do not respond to a bully's language with a sensible response - you point out his own inadequacies in kind, with interest. This sort of garbage deserves to be laughed at instead, particularly when the Chinese come pre-cracked.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 10 Aug 2009 22:05

Before China can think of splitting India, it must learn from its African contacts on how to recognise fundamental human rights (China is lower than even black Africa on this score). Then it may have a chance of saving itself from being split. (I think Chinese empire is heading for an inevitable split-much like the USSR, 15%growth rate or not, atomic weapons or not-they just don't have the soft power).

Let Baluchistan, another population poor, resource rich country be an example to Tibet, Uigharistan and Mongolia.

However India can and should do business with China, and let history take its course.

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 10 Aug 2009 22:12

sanjaykumar wrote:Before China can think of splitting India, it must learn from its African contacts on how to recognise fundamental human rights (China is lower than even black Africa on this score). Then it may have a chance of saving itself from being split. (I think Chinese empire is heading for an inevitable split-much like the USSR, 15%growth rate or not, atomic weapons or not-they just don't have the soft power).

Let Baluchistan, another population poor, resource rich country be an example to Tibet, Uigharistan and Mongolia.

However India can and should do business with China, and let history take its course.

if india were to be split, then it must be mainly due to its domestic problems like castes, wealth disparity ,ethnic clashes and religious clashes,instead of foreigh interferation.

India is just like a train full of fuels and oil. once lit, it would implode

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 10 Aug 2009 22:19

As opposed to China - the train full of fuel oil whose tail end is already on fire and is running as fast as possible so the rest of the train doesn't catch fire ?

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 10 Aug 2009 22:23

Liu, you don't know the first thing about India, as evident from your hilarious post, so better follow the dictum

"It's better to be thought a fool than open your mouth and prove it."

P.S. I'm going to delete *ANY* more OT posts. repeat violators will get warnings.

Jaspreet · Post by **Jaspreet** » 10 Aug 2009 22:29

Liu:

India is just like a train full of fuels and oil. once lit, it would implode

Liu,
I am going to assume that this remark stems more from one-sided knowledge rather than any ill-will. So I am going to respond accordingly.

It is true that India has these problems. But what is highlighted in the media and on internet, especially on jingo sites, is that India has nothing but these problems. This is no different from the trend on this forum where every positive news about China is explained away by a subsequent negative comment.

India has a lot of strengths also, the notable being the desire to keep the nation integral. In 1984, after Indira Gandhi's assassination, the Congress party ran on the platform of keeping India together. It won an unprecedented majority. Similarly, when Kargil happened, Indians again became united. When tsunami occurred, people from Punjab (in the north) went to the South to help others in need.

Perhaps by reading your country's jingo sites and by selective reading in general, you have come to the conclusion that India is a powder keg just waiting to explode. You would be wrong. But that works to our advantage.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 10 Aug 2009 22:40

Its better if China remain ignorant about us .

Money and Fool do part their company fast. Liu in his ignorant bliss is completely oblivious to the reputation of Mainland Chinese as untrustworthy, unethicall fellows , ready to cheat their business counterparts at every possible > all he has to do is to interact with any business person who has or had the pleasure of doing business with them. All that glitter is not gold and soon the reality shows its ugly face to much chargin of Lius of China. India will be an attarctive alternative to China in next 10-20 years .

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 10 Aug 2009 22:48

Suraj wrote:Folks, instead of getting defensive about the Chinese 'we must break up India' article, see it as what it is - a Chinese rehash of the Paki wet dreams for the last 60 years, and before that, the British presumption of the fate that they imagined would befall India within a decade of independence.

There's far too much deference given to this sort of nonsense. You do not respond to a bully's language with a sensible response - you point out his own inadequacies in kind, with interest. This sort of garbage deserves to be laughed at instead, particularly when the Chinese come pre-cracked.

Perfecto.

The article may be a plant to hedge India against China and may be an article not written for China's interests.

Otherwise it is as simple as China thinking like Pak and then we should just say God save China

archan · Post by **archan** » 10 Aug 2009 22:56

Muppalla wrote: then we should just say God save China

Which he won't, coz they don't believe in Him.

Sumeet · Post by **Sumeet** » 10 Aug 2009 22:57

Liu wrote:
if india were to be split, then it must be mainly due to its domestic problems like castes, wealth disparity ,ethnic clashes and religious clashes,instead of foreigh interferation.

India is just like a train full of fuels and oil. once lit, it would implode

Caste: Historically India has never been split on Caste basis. Splitting on caste basis as far as I know is not possible. People don't form communities and live together on basis of caste. And as time passes caste is receding further into the background. Besides that it is foolish to assume people are more conscious of their caste identity v/s country identity because it just makes it obvious to me that you don't know Indians at grass root levels.

Wealth Disparity: Well you Chinese are ahead of us in that respect.
http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/countries/d ... s_CHN.html
Check point 15.

Secondly your main agents Commies just got a kick in their butts for repeating that same mantra. It is better to learn things from observing others. People won't buy into this nonsense, they have faith in the system and economic benefits are seeping down the society into its lowest layers.

Ethnic Clashes: You have the same problem there in China. Tibet v/s Han China; Xinjiang v/s Han China. People in HK don't like the idea of communist dictatorship [Refer to Jackie Chan comment]. Taiwan already considers itself an independent nation. A rising, diverse & democratic India will be your teacher in providing you with these values and implanting them in your heart.

Religious clash: Once country has been partitioned on this basis. Don't know how easy it will be to play this card again.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 11 Aug 2009 00:49

There are several things in the article which gives a clue.

http://www.hotklix.com/link/news/world/ ... k-up-India

The writer has argued that in view of the above, China in its own interest and the progress of Asia, should join forces with different nationalities like the Assamese, Tamils, and Kashmiris and support the latter in establishing independent nation-States of their own, out of India. In particular, the ULFA (United Liberation Front of Asom) in Assam, a territory neighboring China, can be helped by China so that Assam realises its national independence.

This means that they are trying to establish and already established links with Tamils, Kashmiris and the Assam liberators.
Indians must know who these people are.

If you see all of them have similar plans similar to what the British postulated before independence and what Pakistan has been barking for the last 60 years.

archan · Post by **archan** » 11 Aug 2009 00:53

I think the article meant to say that BD feels India is the biggest threat to it as they think that India wants to make a Indian Federation from Afghanistan to the end-of-the-world. Nevermind, how they think it is possible in a modern world. People seriously overestimate Indian intentions at times.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 11 Aug 2009 01:01

archan wrote:I think the article meant to say that BD feels India is the biggest threat to it as they think that India wants to make a Indian Federation from Afghanistan to the end-of-the-world. Nevermind, how they think it is possible in a modern world. People seriously overestimate Indian intentions at times.

You are right

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 11 Aug 2009 02:38

Liu

The difference between India and China is that in India, what is wrong is front-page news. In China only what is right is front-page news.

In India the systems are in place for aggrieved parties to vent. In China, the aggrieved parties get crushed under tanks like in Tinamen Square.

In India a Sikh can be a PM, a Christian woman can be the power center, a dalit woman can aspire to be the PM. It is all because of the divisions in India, which the Chinese have been trying to exploit for generations. However the democratic system allows these individual aspirations to be met and reconciled. As a result there are a lot of small bubbles which burst, but nothing which grows big.

OTOH, in China when the bubble bursts it will hurt. You can keep people suppressed for so long without giving them an outlet to vent. The Cultural Revolution or even the Tinnamen Square type extermination actions are likely to become harder to carry out in the future.

And yes, wages in China are lower when you compare similar skill levels, especially in manufacturing. Top down statistics are meaningless and do not translate to an apples to apples comparison. The lower wages are the primary reason Chinese goods are very price competitive.

But I do not expect your brainwashed brain to understand that. The CCP does not even believe that the average Chinese could reconcile the fact that the small girl singing in the Olympics was lip-syncing; the news was blacked out in China to not to diminish the prestige of the CCP. The CCP wants to be the Mammon all Chinese are expected to worship and hold above scrutiny. Such experiments typically end badly, and history has a habit of repeating itself.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 11 Aug 2009 03:01

Can I ask you why you make the effort?

Liu and his ilk should read up on the thousands of girls from Hunan lured to East Turkestan as brides for the occupying Han soldiers. These illiterate impoverished women had all the rights of the great Han race. Many of them committed suicide.

I find it ironic that the foolish mynah sings of spring and recognises not his prison.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 11 Aug 2009 03:34

The Chinese can dream of splitting India all the while India moves across to split China's empire. Why Chinese empire could not extend to Asia? And why will it fail again? Because it is an empire without a heart - it has no philosophy at all behind its identity, if at all there is something called a Chinese identity. Wealth alone does not sustain an identity and the power and influence weilded by that identity over environmental and political crises. The Chinese have removed all philosophies - even the futile attempt at creating a complete philosophy with Marxism has given way to sleek opportunism and "economism". It will gain some more riches, flex and pose a little bit more of muscle, and then it will go down. All of a sudden we will find that China is struggling to feed its hungry, or defend them from external aggression. We have already entered a long period drought (with typical increasing incidence of highly skewed rainfall events and distribution which cause more damge than provide useful water) in East Asia from the 1920's - very similar in indications to the identifiable historic droughts that concided with the retreat or fall of the various stages of Chinese regimes.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 11 Aug 2009 04:11

RayC wrote:
China should break up India: Chinese strategist

This is actually a very good article. Splitting Assam, Nagaland etc has already been tried and has failed, but there is no harm if it warns us to be ever vigilant. I will worry when China says all is well in the border areas, India is the big brother and China is ready to learn from her. Remember Mao and Chou lulled India to sleep before the aggression. The political opinion was China will never attack.
Gautam

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 11 Aug 2009 04:42

g.sarkar wrote:
This is actually a very good article. Splitting Assam, Nagaland etc has already been tried and has failed, but there is no harm if it warns us to be ever vigilant. I will worry when China says all is well in the border areas, India is the big brother and China is ready to learn from her. Remember Mao and Chou lulled India to sleep before the aggression. The political opinion was China will never attack.
Gautam

It is not about China working on it alone. It will team up with Pakistan and Uncle to reach the goal.
The China attack in 1962 was a combined effort of other powers too, including Uncle to bring Nehru down.

AnimeshP · Post by **AnimeshP** » 11 Aug 2009 04:55

Acharya wrote: It is not about China working on it alone. It will team up with Pakistan and Uncle to reach the goal.
The China attack in 1962 was a combined effort of other powers too, including Uncle to bring Nehru down.

Acharya ... do you have any references for this info ?

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 11 Aug 2009 05:12

g.kacha wrote:
Acharya ... do you have any references for this info ?

No reference yet

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 11 Aug 2009 05:25

Personally, I'm glad to see the Chinese openly speaking their mind, as it only directly confirms to us what we've known all along.

Theirs is a hardline, hawkish expansionist stance towards all their neighbors.

China is inevitably replacing its waning socialist populism with ultra-nationalist populism. For an inequitable undemocratic regime like theirs, with its inherent illegitimacy and instability, there can be no other choice.

kenop · Post by **kenop** » 11 Aug 2009 06:37

India no match for China, says Navy chief

It is rare for service chiefs in India to articulate their concerns loudly. The government disapproves of it. But when a chief makes such a prophesy, he has to be taken seriously.

I do not remember people at such high levels speaking (their minds?) so openly.

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 11 Aug 2009 07:29

B Raman is visiting Pro Hindutva BR and has quoted my post made earlier.

http://ramanstrategicanalysis.blogspot. ... china.html

It is learnt that the Chinese visual media also projected a more positive image of India. While I have not had an opportunity of watching the Chinese TV, a member of the web site www.bharat-rakshak.com, who had, has posted as follows: "Newstory in Chinese CCTV on India as a global player. The story was spurred by the launch of Arihant (the nuclear submarine). Mostly accurate and probably the most accurate
coming from a foreign source. The Chinese analyst clearly talks about India's arrival on the Asian and the world scene. More sober than the scathing diatribes from Global Times in the recent past. They talk about India being one of the four ancient civilizations. Never seen that from CNN types."

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 11 Aug 2009 07:31

kenop wrote:India no match for China, says Navy chief
It is rare for service chiefs in India to articulate their concerns loudly. The government disapproves of it. But when a chief makes such a prophesy, he has to be taken seriously.
I do not remember people at such high levels speaking (their minds?) so openly.

Well, is it not a known fact that China's military and economy is way ahead of India's.

But is it also not true that India's defence budget has tripled in the last 10 years. India seems to be doing a huge modernisation drive, we recently heard that India will add 100 ships in the next 10 years.

It is not clear what the admiral has in mind. Even the Chinese analysts are conceding that India is becoming an Asian power.

India has to create sufficient military capabilities, a big economy and have partners that will aid in checking China. That's what the GoI seems to be doing but probably not at the rate that people desire.

xie · Post by **xie** » 11 Aug 2009 08:35

Well, I absolutely agree that India is now on the fast track of economic development and military modernization and I am sure India will become a rich and powerful country in the future, but I still don't see how India can "check/contain" China in the next 10 or 20 years.
1)For southeast Asian countries like Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Malaysia, and Singapore, why would they have the willingness to be on India's side against China?
2)For countries that also have territory disputes with China like Vietnam, Philippine, or maybe Indonesia, do you really think they have the necessary confidence in India leading the alliance against China?
3)As for the several central Asian countries, as well as Russia, Mongolia, Korea, Japan, and the USA, they may dislike the communist ideology, or human right records in China but they all have very strong economic or geopolitical ties with China, and I don't see what benefits they may reap by aligning with India.

The only thing I am not sure about are Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh. Since these countries have been traditionally under India's influence, maybe they can be of India's use.

And I honestly think that the leaders of the GoI are way smarter and know much better about India's position than most posters here. I don't often see such ambitious talks from them.

kshirin · Post by **kshirin** » 11 Aug 2009 09:03

The Indian bureaucracy needs to learn how to get things done - our non governmental sectors have shown great successes, India can narrow the gap with China if the leadership qualities on display in India are given full rein. Meanwhile, let us learn from everyone's good points and catch up fast while being strong. The weather in India is a big handicap, plus effects of global warming, we need some creative thinking to save ourselves -massive afforestation etc. I do not hear any plans being announced much less being implemented. Let us focus on making India strong, not just criticising others.

I am very happy to see someone called Hari Seldon on this forum, isn't that Asimov's character who predicts long term (really, really long term scenarios?). I saw this on IDSA website which could be of interest to members, please forgive me for posting here, as usual, really useful and informative website.
http://www.idsa.in/publications/stratco ... 260509.htm
The Role of Science Fiction in Strategic Thinking
Peter Garretson

The recent publication and controversy over STRATFOR founder George Friedman's The Next 100 Years, with its forecasts of war and new space technology reminds us all to consider the value of science fiction to strategic thinking.

Science Fiction is an underappreciated tool in a nation's and strategist's tool book as well as an underappreciated part of culture and literature. Many, because of a lack of scientific literacy or unfamiliarity confuse hard science fiction, often written by well qualified scientists, with fantasy. Many use the term pejoratively to denigrate an idea as being too remote and fantastic, as in "This is the stuff of science fiction." That is an unfortunate self-lobotomy of individuals and cultures that are held captive by the tyranny of the now, or of the past.

No culture is naturally strategic. Strategy is an uphill battle, a constant struggle for all levels of all organizations. It is the natural instinct to be biased in favour of the present and its concerns, and not to consider the far-term and its implications. If one culture appears more strategic, it is only because at that particular period of time, there is some core of strategists, of gadflies prodding their establishments to take a longer view, and a calculated influence campaign fought through media and entertainment to value the future. Perhaps over time, nurture and inspire others, and like a nuclear reactor, keep enough interactions going so they don't entirely fizzle out. Occasionally they can be brought together in enough concentration to create enough heat to drive the turbines of society in new and productive directions.

One tool to nurture such interactions is Science Fiction. Science Fiction is basically a special form of scenario planning, a one-to-many publication of some possible future, based upon an extrapolation of trends and technology to examine what they mean to the human enterprise. It informs us as to the desirability of alternate paths we may take or shy away from. It helps us understand the implications of decisions in the now, of problems we may encounter as a result, and allows us a window into microcosms of cause and effect. It helps make the unfamiliar familiar and understandable, thereby steeling us for change and preventing future shock. It provides us with organizing gestalts, models for our behaviour and organization. It allows us to criticise the present, freeing us from the tyranny of the now. Like all of our senses, it is a sort of evolutionary adaptation that helps us to "see over the next hill" and to explore the territory ahead. The ability to see which trends and technologies might be important, to suspend belief and project those implications into the future, to see how those factors will interact with other factors, and then to imagine oneself as an actor in that future, with those circumstances and causality and rule sets is a special talent. It requires a mind not only trained and agile for analysis, but for synthesis, for breaking down old patterns and reassembling their constituents.

SciFi typically aims to cast broadly, aiming for a mass audience. Societally, it helps us explore and be prepared for new possibilities or eventualities. Like many seeds being cast widely, some occasionally reach fertile soil, get planted in the right mind, and helps organize their own vision of the future. Take for instance this sentence from Indian IT entrepreneur Nandan Nilekani's book Imagining India, "As a teenager, I also read plenty of science fiction stories by American writers that portrayed computers..." Or consider in how many areas life has imitated art, such as the advent of submarines, powered flight, atomic power, space travel, computers, cell phones, and virtual reality. All things are created twice, and the first creation is in the mind.

But the special skills that a science fiction author has need not only be limited to the mass audience. Many times governments and think tanks bring together diverse groups of people to think about the future and our strategy in the present to arrive at or avoid some particular vision of the future. But too often, we neglect, or discount the contribution that such a mind could make. The SF writers’ special mental agility causes them to think on different lines, and ask different questions that lead to more robust and better analysis. They are a good hedge against "a failure of imagination." And contrary to popular belief, in real practice, they do not take discussions down wasteful fantastic diversions. However their presence does create a sort of permission for others to be less conventional in their thinking and more creative, which is a benefit in itself.

Some organizations, at some times, have made exceptional use of science fiction authors. In the 1995-1996 time frame, the US Air Force brought in multiple science fiction authors as part of its AF2025 project. Currently within the United States, several organizations, from intelligence, to military, to homeland security, to DARPA create structured opportunities for brainstorming and discussion with groups of eminent science fiction authors. An example of an organized group of science fiction authors as a think tank "science fiction in the public interest" is SIGMA (http://www.sigmaforum.org), which routinely offers its services to government and multi-government agencies.

But the initiative to convene such get together rests with the strategists, and their ability to create the space and seriousness to make use of this talent. Like all strategic thought, it involves risk, and requires organizational self-confidence. But many organizations have tried this approach already and were happy enough to do it at least a second time and recommend it to others.

As India grows in its volume of organized strategic thought, it is inevitable that it turns to its own internal science fiction talent to help it understand and envision its future, and to broadcast it widely to inspire and prepare the greater populace. But the initiative to take ownership of, and make use of this strain of Indian strategic culture will continue to rest with India's existing strategic community, and their ability to be bold and forward thinking.

Peter Garretson, Airpower & Spacepower Strategist, and Grand Stategist, is currently a Visiting Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 11 Aug 2009 09:04

Some literature in the recent past some of which have emanated from SE Asia have shown that some of the SE Asian countries would want a counterbalance against the heft of China.

Secondly, recently K Subramanyam talked about India creating partners to check China's potential aggressive instincts. The recent India South Korea FTA is a case in point.

kenop · Post by **kenop** » 11 Aug 2009 09:06

The only thing I am not sure about are Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh. Since these countries have been traditionally under India's influence, maybe they can be of India's use.

the influence is waning to say the least. Sri Lanka was reportedly helped a lot by the Chinese in the end-game in the North-East which ended with the defeat of LTTE. Nepal has a lot more influence from their neighbour in the east.
Bhutan most likely is the only piece in our camp. Does it count much ?
Bangladesh is suspect.

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 11 Aug 2009 09:21

An earlier report around 2000 timeframe had mentioned that Indian strategists expected China to mount an even stronger challenge in the Indian subcontinent as an answer to India's attempts to become a Asian/Global power.

That is what we are seeing now. A contest in the Indian subcontient. While China is making some progress, it has to be noted that Pakistan is mired in local conflict thereby reducing its value somewhat. So this contest will continue and India is making some countermoves elsewhere.

Time will tell what will happen but India has to get its economy going at 7-9% for a decade or so. That was the conclusion reached in the latest NSC meeting as well.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Aug 2009 09:56

You need science fiction when you have killed your mythology for both are mediums to channel the creativity.

RayC · Post by **RayC** » 11 Aug 2009 10:06

Liu wrote: if india were to be split, then it must be mainly due to its domestic problems like castes, wealth disparity ,ethnic clashes and religious clashes,instead of foreigh interferation.

India is just like a train full of fuels and oil. once lit, it would implode

Let us not talk so glibly of castes.

Division of society, call it by any name, be it caste or shengfan or shufan (i.e. cooked and uncooked barbarians) or confining to the people to the area of their birth (hukou and not being able to migrate without permission (as if in jail) or the danwei system i.e. work unit where permission is required from the relevant danwei before undertaking travel, marriage or having children, is the same.

Therefore, you are hardly in a position as a Chinese with such horrifying human rights abusive system, to comment on the Indian society.

Wherever there is a multireligious society, there will be conflicts of interest. Inspite of the famed brutal Chinese system of governance through military and police might, you have been rocked with the same malaise i.e. Tibet and in Xinjiang. The interesting difference between China and India is that China attempts to brutally wipe out culture, language, customs, tradition and religion of ethnic minority. In India, it is opposite. We encourage our multicultural, multi ethnic, multilingual, and multi religious mosaic of our country.

The manner in which the Muslim majority areas of China and I am also talking about the Hui and not Uighurs alone or Sichuan and western areas is indeed getting so pathetic that it is becoming a cauldron on the boil!

Urban - Rural divide in India? Sure. But being a democracy, anger finds peaceful outlets. In China, you have the repeated mob violence in towns and villages because of the disparity or misuse of power by the powerful district and town Communist leaders. This may interest you:

Reduce inequality to combat organized crime

* Source: Global Times
* [01:31 August 03 2009]

By Zhu Junqiang

Xinhuanet reported Wednesday that China’s anti-organized crime campaign, initiated in February 2006 by the Central Committee of Political and Legislative Affairs, has thus far taken down more than 1,200 high-level mafia-style gangs and 12,850 low-level gangs............

Another characteristic of China’s urban gangs is that they recruit a majority of their members from rural areas. This is a byproduct of China’s disturbing urban-rural divide.

Back in the Mao Zedong era (1950s-1970s), gangsters vanished in China. The rise of underworld gangs since the 1980s mainly springs from the country’s emerging market economy, which has tremendously expanded people’s opportunities and desires to pursue wealth. Criminals are no exception

Mob Violence in China Rural Urban Divide

China has neat euphemism that dilute the reality - gangs for legitimate opposition to govt misrule and corruption!

This is how you keep your people in the dark and so you come out with the usual official view since you are not aware of the truth. Your govt knows you all will not be able to handle the truth as much as the govt is incapable of handling the truth.

In order to suppress unfavorable news coverage, the Chinese government has adopted a two-pronged approach. First, Beijing has attacked the source of dissent, threatening any grieving parents who persisted in their protests. Second, the government has embarked on an extensive campaign of media censorship. For instance, foreign reporters covering the parents' demonstrations in Sichuan were detained and deported from the towns where the protests took place. The Los Angeles Times notes that "web discussion groups have seen postings deleted" magically, as if by some unseen Web umpire.[2] And The Washington Post notes that at least one web journalist, Huang Qi, along with two associates, was arrested for posting revealing commentary on the aftermath of the disaster
Hide the Reality and Truth

China is unable to handle their new found wealth and the breath of fresh air from the Mao days!!

The current situation in China is that it has become too ripe and the plum shall fall to the ground through the interaction of its sheer weight of its unique contradictions and the gravitation pull of greed energised by globalisation and a penchant for high living after years of being cloistered and clamped down upon!

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 11 Aug 2009 10:24

The China-India comparison, however faulty, is further muddled by the fact that their strategic aims are poles apart.

Whereas PRC aims to dominate all of Asia, India aims to be able to hold its own in its backyard and prevent phoren domination of the same.

Thus at once, you have conflict as the 2 aims are not aligned.

If India fulfills her dream of deterring domination of IOR/ South Asia with her might, PRC's objectives remain unfulfilled.

Also, India's aims are (characteristically?) more modest and attainable than PRC's. The goalposts in the hare-tortoise race are different for the hare and for the tortoise. That adds to the confusion.

The powers of India-China will always hedge major asian powers against one another. However weak Dilli may be relative to Beijing, Rangoon-Bangkok-Pnom Pneh-colombo-s'pore etc gain nothing by falling into PRC's lap. They lose precious bargaining power by doing so even if they were so inclined to start with.

Kathmandu is a dangerous one as they will willingly walk into the PRC camp to spite Dilli. The commies are a dangerous mindset that way.