Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

amit · Post by **amit** » 31 Aug 2009 09:54

negi wrote:Very well put Amit dada....infact the problem is the given the nature of science and political repercussions related to nuclear testing POK-II are not the only tests where NPAs have got their yield estimates wrong ; their estimates of TSp's tests too were all over the place and recently they even tried to brush off the NoKo tests as insignificant by categorizing the tests as fizzile infact afaik the first test was even being projected as an explosion caused by high volume of conventional explosives and not by a nuke device ;all this despite NoKo having informed PRC before hand about a nuclear test.

Actually Negi bhai, I think the problem starts because we're trying to break up our scientific team, who gave us our deterrence into two classes. And the two are: one set of super efficient and brilliant uber patriots and the other a set a bunch of inefficient, blundering fools who verge on being traitors.

By itself that's not so bad, the only problem is that the scientists enter either team on the basis of just how much their statements/POVs match those of the people choosing the team.

Otherwise how to explain the fact (other than the way I've tried to) that KS is a hero for some when he says the TN was a fizzle. But the same people keep a pregnant silence when asked the if KS is a hero and patriot, then the nuclear deal was/is also good since he gave it unqualified support and said it did not compromise India's security?

Why is so hard to think that people who've dedicated all their lives to India are all patriots and that they hold their positions on the dint of their abilities and their qualifications? And a difference of opinion is a natural collorally when you have a bunch of brilliant people working on a problem?

We've even had snide comments about Abdul Kalam's abilities - as if his majoring in Aeronautical Engineering from the very deshi Madras Institute of Technology - is not kosher enough.

Cheers!

amit · Post by **amit** » 31 Aug 2009 09:58

Ramana,

Sorry just saw your post on the top of this page. If you think my previous post shouldn't be there please delete. But I think the stuff I wrote needs to be said. I would think a lot of people are unhappy with what has been said.

Thanks,

Amit

amit · Post by **amit** » 31 Aug 2009 10:02

ramana wrote:MMS and MKN can sign the CTBT as its their prerogative for being the elected govt.

Ramana,

Maybe all the brouhaha that KS' comment has raised was intentional, so the MMS and MKN can't just go and sign on the dotted line with a clear conscience?

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 31 Aug 2009 10:06

Acharya wrote:
John Snow wrote:raja ram garu>> I am in complete agreement with you. If there was any inadvertant slipage on my part I regret.
I know I have called Jaswant as Jassoo M, but he is a political figure not a scientist who can not defend himself.
For politicians I thin we can take some leeway. IMVHO
Still not acceptable IMHO

Right, the name mangling would be an example of Appeal to Ridicule.

sugriva · Post by **sugriva** » 31 Aug 2009 10:13

vera_k wrote:Right, the name mangling would be an example of Appeal to Ridicule.

As would be N^3 repeated references to derisive terms like "EB's".

BajKhedawal · Post by **BajKhedawal** » 31 Aug 2009 10:17

ss_roy wrote:Anujan,

Relevant quote from Dr. Strangelove

"Mr. President, I would not rule out the chance to preserve a nucleus of human specimens. It would be quite easy... heh heh... at the bottom of ah ... some of our deeper mineshafts. The radioactivity would never penetrate a mine some thousands of feet deep. And in a matter of weeks, sufficient improvements in dwelling space could easily be provided."

But you see the problem with that is, (as per the above movie) they will allow only the military and scientists types underground along with adequate number of women to maintain a 10:1 ratio to increase the production of human species underground.

I dont like the idea as i would be left to die alongwith all the ugly ones.

I just saw the movie last week, for the first time.

Drevin · Post by **Drevin** » 31 Aug 2009 10:18

MMS looks pretty strong now. So he may sign the ctbt. Will be a death blow to congress for god knows how many decades. Not a single indian will vote for congress for many years to come. He is a very intelligent man. I doubt they will even look at ctbt.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 31 Aug 2009 10:21

BajKhedawal wrote:
Sanku wrote:
As to what GoI does or does not do with Villagers when national interest is concerened -- I think you need to talk to Narmada folks.
Oh you mean Arundhati Suzanne Roy? Anything hugely successful in desh the EJ / EB brigade has to malign?

NO, the people in GoI which said F Off to the entire EJ brigade and made the Dam

Villagers bigger than Khetolai are relocated to makes some roads in India.

Khetolai is a red herring, when all else fails blame Khetolai.....

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 31 Aug 2009 10:27

Based on Raj Chengappa's India Today article, the western scientists have not revealed their methodology of arriving at the results. Without that is it not hard to accept their claims?

negi · Post by **negi** » 31 Aug 2009 10:34

Sanku wrote: NO, the people in GoI which said F Off to the entire EJ brigade and made the Dam

Villagers bigger than Khetolai are relocated to makes some roads in India.

Khetolai is a red herring, when all else fails blame Khetolai.....

Sanku saheb couple of things:

1. Relocating a village would have compromised the secrecy of the entire TEST.
2. I believe we should distinguish and appreciate the difference between a DAM and a nuke test from civillian pov too.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 31 Aug 2009 10:36

Gerard wrote:Behind dud test row is nuke deal

from the link above ,

India is now committed to a de-facto CTBT and can decide when it wishes to move to a de-jure process after a careful and objective assessment of the prevailing regional and global environment.

BajKhedawal · Post by **BajKhedawal** » 31 Aug 2009 10:36

Sanku wrote:
As to what GoI does or does not do with Villagers when national interest is concerened -- I think you need to talk to Narmada folks.

Sanku wrote:
BajKhedawal wrote: Oh you mean Arundhati Suzanne Roy? Anything hugely successful in desh the EJ / EB brigade has to malign?
NO, the people in GoI which said F Off to the entire EJ brigade and made the Dam

Villagers bigger than Khetolai are relocated to makes some roads in India.

Khetolai is a red herring, when all else fails blame Khetolai.....

Whats wrong with Khetolai, its like any other village in India if not better. It boasts of 100% literacy.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 31 Aug 2009 10:56

negi wrote:1. Relocating a village would have compromised the secrecy of the entire TEST.

I am aware of that, but

three on 11 May and two on 13 May 1998,

So clearly there was time to empty the village before the Big one. Also in any case Army did at the last moment ask the civilians to move out.

In other approach Khetloai can be relocated MUCH before the tests. Say a year ago.

So I don't believe that Khetolai was an issue at all. Just a red herring.

2. I believe we should distinguish and appreciate the difference between a DAM and a nuke test from civillian pov too.

Oh Narmada was the biggest example thats why, but you can take Chandipur too. Its formation included shifting some villagers, heck villagers were shifted recently for Corbett national park.

A while back close to where I live, 40 houses were demolished for a road. (Middle class houses -- 2 stories etc)

Khetolai is just a red herring.

Sanatanan · Post by **Sanatanan** » 31 Aug 2009 11:00

At Page 27:

ramana wrote: All right thinking pople will support the deal.

I take it that in the above quote, there is not a difference in interpretation that "the deal" == US India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement and its subsequent / consequent international agreements.

I am deeply disappointed with Ramana's overarching statement above, for it implies that those who do not support "the deal" (I for one) are not right thinking. I recollect MMS said some thing to the effect that Indians who do not support the deal are not patriotic!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 31 Aug 2009 11:02

The deal should be supported but not the accession to CTBT.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 31 Aug 2009 11:07

ramana wrote:The deal should be supported but not the accession to CTBT.

I do think that the deal is CTBT by the back door anyway. A step in salami slicing.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 31 Aug 2009 11:10

narayanan wrote: Of course that raises the question: Why pull back S6 is S1 DID succeed? Why not go for the 95% confidence demonstration etc? Answer: Because it would have been very dangerous, given what happened with S1. Lots of fractures, the structures up top were "incinerated" (The HINDU report) - chances of a large atmospheric release may have been very scary.

So the best explanation for S6 withdrawal is that S1 DID work considerably more than predicted - and the seismic waves were stronger than expected, so it caused a lot of worries. They were happy about the yield, and didn't want to push their luck by perhaps triggering a big atmospheric release.

1. It is also possible that the shaft of S6 was shallower than S1. (Assuming the S1 sizzled)

2. Or after S1 fizzled, the thought of protecting echendee occurred and S6 was not allowed to go ahead because it would have generated a clear, uncluttered signal for videshis to analyze. (Perhaps also the reason why S1 was clubbed together with S2 and S3 - because the design team were not fully sure it will sizzle, this being the first ever thermonuclear test, and the chances of a fizzle were understandably high.)

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 31 Aug 2009 11:19

Pardon my playing the same old record
---------------------------------------
There have been claims and counter claims about the yield from the time the test were announced. The design yield and the actual yield may never be known to the world, all analysis just being speculation.

I think KS understood this very fact, set the cats among the pigeons and created the uncertainty. His purpose was clearly stated to ensure that the government does not sign the CTBT. This is the only fact that we can rely upon.

Now looking at the old news items, it certainly seems that he had a valid reason for concern. MMS had gifted the only foreign policy victory to Bush and it may be that we might be willing to go the extra mile to ensure that our engagement with the new administration in White house starts on a good note, in the hopes of getting a few economic laddus down the line. It has to be remembered that our Pm is an economist first. All of this speculation of course.

No talks with Pak just yet: NSA

But as the PM prepares to become the first state visitor in the Obama White House, India is searching for that one Big Idea which would symbolise the new India-US relationship. Narayanan said it was the audacity of the nuclear deal which fired the India-US relationship back in 2005. In 2009, both countries are searching for another spark for a new administration in US.

Tangible results will be announced during PM's visit: Roemer

``We intend to announce some of the most tangible results of our partnership this November, when Prime Minister Singh travels to Washington for an official visit.

The Ambassador termed the various components of the strategic dialogue as ``big, bold and a broad series of undertakings’’ which both sides had resolved to work on many of them simultaneously.

India needs to be constructive on international issues: PM

If New Delhi, he added, wished to fulfil its aspiration of a place on the international high table it needed to be seen as being more constructive rather than obstructive on issues of global concern like climate change and trade talks.

In this context, the prime minister identified three pillars of India's global engagement that included sustaining capital inflows to supplement domestic investment, leveraging access to high-end technologies around the world for development and ensuring that the country's growth was not constrained by scarcity of natural resources.

All of this is maya onlee

symontk · Post by **symontk** » 31 Aug 2009 11:22

narayanan wrote:New Improved S-6. Ready when u r.

When Shkati series were underway, there was a problem of water collecting in the old shafts dug for proposed 1983/1995 tests. So the team dug new sites. So status of S-6 is also a question after 10 years. But you can dug ne shafts, nothing need to stop that anyway.

Also if India has signed PTBT, then India cannot test over ocean or land. It has to be underground and the explosion contained in the underground itself

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 31 Aug 2009 11:24

Is there some other 'tangible' result possible other than a CTBT signature in the November visit?
MMS is expected to sign the contract for new N-plants by the US. Maybe some defence contract will be signed too. CTBT won't be cooking this November - Dr Santanan has ensured for now.
But what does India gain? A commitment to 'work towards' security council membership if India behaves?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 31 Aug 2009 11:29

Gagan wrote:Is there some other 'tangible' result possible other than a CTBT signature in the November visit?

Climate change and Trade talks are other big deliverables for Obama IMHO.

Gagan wrote:But what does India gain? A commitment to 'work towards' security council membership if India behaves?

PM reccently stated this

In this context, the prime minister identified three pillars of India's global engagement that included sustaining capital inflows to supplement domestic investment, leveraging access to high-end technologies around the world for development and ensuring that the country's growth was not constrained by scarcity of natural resources.

The nuclear deal was to address the above only.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 31 Aug 2009 11:31

Simple solution.Test another H-bomb...in outer space! Launch one of our rockets that can carry the payload into space,we've already sent Chandrayan to the Moon,so that there will be no controversy back on earth! I'm sure from the resulting explosion or fizziel,India and the world will be satisfied that our fireworks aren't damp squibs.This would also be a good way of testing our ICBM too!

Incidentally,Chandrayan's failure has now been attributed to be due to excessive magnetic activity from sunspots,excessive heat,etc.As mentioned in a post many moons ago,there is going to be a massive peak in solar activity in 2012,Dec 21st to be exact,the date given to us by the Mayans.This coincides with the 11 year peak in solar activity,which resembles a sound wave.Golbal warming is in patr due to this factor and we can expect more natural disasters ,etc. which will peak in 2012.

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 31 Aug 2009 11:31

Anything related to India in terms of global role, strategy, leadership, I starting have a big bag of microwave pop corn and then some times chai samosa and read the tamasha.

One thing for sure India deserves what it gets, for it has leaders that serves them right.

Crazy scientists and crazy BRfites want more bums as if we dont have enough already.
Jai Ho

***
Oh by the way China is commissioning two coal plants a month according to a report and in another 2 yrs will be contributing twice the gas emmisions of the whole world put together, they want to be leaders in that too.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 31 Aug 2009 11:33

^^ Thought occured to moi long ago. Turns out India has already signed away its right to test N bums underwater or in outer space.

Time, IMHO, to build a space-Arihant. A rocket with a new clear motor/engine. Its blowing up in deep space releasing all its 1MT stored energy would be unfortunate only, I guess.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 31 Aug 2009 11:37

The key to India's foreign policy from the horses mouth i.e Dr. Singh
--------------------------------------------------------------------
India needs to be constructive on international issues: PM

If New Delhi, he added, wished to fulfil its aspiration of a place on the international high table it needed to be seen as being more constructive rather than obstructive on issues of global concern like climate change and trade talks.

In this context, the prime minister identified three pillars of India's global engagement that included sustaining capital inflows to supplement domestic investment, leveraging access to high-end technologies around the world for development and ensuring that the country's growth was not constrained by scarcity of natural resources.

For the above, kuch bhi kare ga, well not quite but that is the focus.

amit · Post by **amit** » 31 Aug 2009 11:39

John Snow wrote:One thing for sure India deserves what it gets, for it has leaders that serves them right.

When you say India I reckon you mean Indians. I hope you include yourself among the term "Indians", that is assuming you still hold an Indian passport.

John Snow, I hope you realise that just as any glory that India achieves is the collective achievement of every single of the billion plus Indians, including those posting on BRF, any failure is also the collective failure of these same Indians.

One can't pick and choose.

Why am I unconsciously humming the song: "Papa don't preach..."

And Oh yes the mandatory: Jai Ho!

symontk · Post by **symontk** » 31 Aug 2009 11:41

Gagan wrote:
narayanan wrote: Of course that raises the question: Why pull back S6 is S1 DID succeed? Why not go for the 95% confidence demonstration etc? Answer: Because it would have been very dangerous, given what happened with S1. Lots of fractures, the structures up top were "incinerated" (The HINDU report) - chances of a large atmospheric release may have been very scary.

So the best explanation for S6 withdrawal is that S1 DID work considerably more than predicted - and the seismic waves were stronger than expected, so it caused a lot of worries. They were happy about the yield, and didn't want to push their luck by perhaps triggering a big atmospheric release.
1. It is also possible that the shaft of S6 was shallower than S1. (Assuming the S1 sizzled)

2. Or after S1 fizzled, the thought of protecting echendee occurred and S6 was not allowed to go ahead because it would have generated a clear, uncluttered signal for videshis to analyze. (Perhaps also the reason why S1 was clubbed together with S2 and S3 - because the design team were not fully sure it will sizzle, this being the first ever thermonuclear test, and the chances of a fizzle were understandably high.)

Here also for the scenario 2, if scientists knew that it was a fizzle, they could just passed it as another 15KT fission bomb test. Since they insisted on mentioning it as a TN test, it should have been successful

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 31 Aug 2009 11:43

dont make any assumptions, I am as much Indian as MMS or SG, nothing less nothing more. I two like them, go after money but some how money seems always ahead of me. SO I am after money teen party

symontk · Post by **symontk** » 31 Aug 2009 11:44

Hari Seldon wrote:^^ Thought occured to moi long ago. Turns out India has already signed away its right to test N bums underwater or in outer space.

Time, IMHO, to build a space-Arihant. A rocket with a new clear motor/engine. Its blowing up in deep space releasing all its 1MT stored energy would be unfortunate only, I guess.

Costly affair. Why do that? A Jagaur or Mig 27 can carry the warhead over Pokharan and then an unfortunate accident happens (warhead seperates from the aircraft), but for God's blessing all the villagers and the pilot escapes unhurt.

Isnt that a possibility?

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 31 Aug 2009 11:47

well well a mirage can do that too flying from west to east no?

sugriva · Post by **sugriva** » 31 Aug 2009 11:49

BC uvacha...

http://news.rediff.com/column/2009/aug/ ... -power.htm

amit · Post by **amit** » 31 Aug 2009 11:50

negi wrote:
NO, the people in GoI which said F Off to the entire EJ brigade and made the Dam

Villagers bigger than Khetolai are relocated to makes some roads in India.

Khetolai is a red herring, when all else fails blame Khetolai.....
Sanku saheb couple of things:

1. Relocating a village would have compromised the secrecy of the entire TEST.
2. I believe we should distinguish and appreciate the difference between a DAM and a nuke test from civillian pov too.

Actually Negi,

If you look at N^3's post he raises an interesting issue.

This is my understanding of what he's trying to say.

Khetolai was near the test site and it wasn't a good idea to vacate the village and that would have been a give way of the test. And so the site of the explosion was chosen in such a manner that the village would be outside the test zone, in the safe zone, if you will.

Now we know for certain that Khetolai, was very much within the seismic zone of the blasts as the walls cracked. I can see two possible reasons for this.

1) The testers miscalculated the radius of the test zone and it should have been bigger and should have included the village.

2) It could be that the test zone was calculated properly but the yield was more than expected (this is what IMO, N^3 was saying).

Now the question is if it was a fizzle then the impact zone should have been even smaller and the impact would have been well within the test zone. Alternatively their was gross miscalculation of the danger (test) zone.

Now I'm speculating but I would think that KS as test director would be, in consultation with others, setting the safe zone wouldn't he be?

IMO, that's the gist of N^3 argument. Bringing in NGOs, Narmada Dam etc are just red herrings.

rakall · Post by **rakall** » 31 Aug 2009 11:52

NRao wrote:
I have been more scared of MMS - from 123 days, so there is a LOT of empathy on my part for him WRT "MMS may sign CTBT".

I have been highly scared of him since the "Indian people love Bush" days..

amit · Post by **amit** » 31 Aug 2009 11:52

John Snow wrote:dont make any assumptions, I am as much Indian as MMS or SG, nothing less nothing more. I two like them, go after money but some how money seems always ahead of me. SO I am after money teen party

Glad to know that. Then you, me and every other Indian deserve the govt we get. So we need to be self critical rather than critical of others maybe?

Jai Ho!

amit · Post by **amit** » 31 Aug 2009 11:54

rakall wrote:I have been highly scared of him since the "Indian people love Bush" days..

Rakall,
Why blame MMS?

Remember there was a poll a few years ago which showed that the Indians and India was No1 in their lovey-dovey feelings for AmerKhan.

Glad I didn't participate in that poll!

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 31 Aug 2009 11:54

BC in rediff lifted

Nuclear deterrence, after all, is like beauty: It lies in the eyes of the beholder.

this is copy righted to spinster in 1998 may.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 31 Aug 2009 11:57

To all jingos, who are asking for re-test, MT H-bomb, nu-clear rocket motor, etc,etc, I must caution you.

Our foreign policy is based on being the good boys of the international system in the hopes of receiving a few candies in the end. This is the vision of our PM, sorry our establishment.

If New Delhi, he added, wished to fulfil its aspiration of a place on the international high table it needed to be seen as being more constructive rather than obstructive on issues of global concern like climate change and trade talks.

I wonder how our PM would classify our 1996 stand on CTBT.

amit · Post by **amit** » 31 Aug 2009 12:05

pankajs wrote:To all jingos, who are asking for re-test, MT H-bomb, nu-clear rocket motor, etc,etc, I must caution you.

Our foreign policy is based on being the good boys of the international system in the hopes of receiving a few candies in the end. This is the vision of our PM.

If New Delhi, he added, wished to fulfil its aspiration of a place on the international high table it needed to be seen as being more constructive rather than obstructive on issues of global concern like climate change and trade talks.

Pankaj,

Maybe you need to read a bit more on India's position on climate change and trade talks.

India - more specifically Kamal Nath - has bee credited with single handedly breaking an emerging consensus at the WTO Doha round talks at Geneva in June last year. Even now, in two days time, trade ministers from G20 and other countries are coming to New Delhi to ostensibly hammer a last minute compromise which would allow WTO to keep the year-end deadline on completing the Doha Round. India holds the key, its Yes or a No would go a long way to showing the way forward. Where do you see India being bullied in trade talks?

Regarding climate control, despite Hillary Cliton's "highly successful" visit a couple of months ago, she got a earful from Anand Sharma regarding climate control and carbon emissions. Her charm didn't cut any dice.

So please give a long and hard look at India's nuanced positions on various issues before claiming that India is rolling over and allowing people to run rough shod.

Think of it another way. The leaders are just as much Indian as you are. Do you allow folks to bully you to submission? Or do you take inducements to change your stance? I'm sure you don't do either because you're a proud Indian. Now what gives you the impression that Indian leaders are any less proud Indians than you, me or the uber jingos on BRF?

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 31 Aug 2009 12:11

amit wrote:
1) The testers miscalculated the radius of the test zone and it should have been bigger and should have included the village.

2) It could be that the test zone was calculated properly but the yield was more than expected (this is what IMO, N^3 was saying).

Anything is possible, but usually the simplest thing is probable, no one really gave too much of a damn about Khetolai anyway (just like GoI in nearly every sphere) and when there were some minor cracks, after the fizzle there was a ready made excuse.

This one really takes the cake

-- why cant India have a credible deterrence? When probably that is all that will stand in the way of Nuked Delhi?
Because of Khetloi you see -- we worship our villages "ek bhee baal banka nahi hona chaiye" (not a hair should be touched)

Talk of any level of absurdity people are willing to plumb to not look at basic truth.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 31 Aug 2009 12:13

And oh yes werent we getting 10000000000000000 MW of Bijli in next two days after the Nuke deal signature?

No one cares for Bijli anymore?