Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

[amit]

EDITED.

[Sanku]

EDITED.

[amit]

Amit I note that you are degenerating to your old style of personal attacks when clearly the logical way fails.

Please desist. I AM NOT GERMANE to this discussion. If you have nothing to say on the topic dont say it.

Sanku ji

I've already said what wanted to say and established what I wanted to vis a vis your posts. So no more from me as far as you are concerned. Now I'll keep my comments germane to the discussion on hand as outlined by Raja Ram.

[Sanku]

KS has stirred the nuclear pot just as Jaswant has done to the Indo-Pak political pot..

Philip, I agree with Arun_S that KS wont be able to stop the signing, over last few years, fairly anti-India deals have been done and in each case the clearly damaging path was actually sold as being the best for India.

Signatures will happen -- there is no political power which can stop it, and unlike in case of S e S, ordinary Indians don't realize this field like they understand Pakistan.

There is no worthwhile political establishment left to oppose -- and KS will be vilified tarred and feathered, there will be lot of helping hands.

I do not have hope -- but KS did a brave thing never the less.

[milindc]

Can you point me to one non BARC Non NPA (as defined by you) study to show it passes?

The onus of the proof is on the guys making the claim -- the rest can claim absence of proof.

What is so hard to understand?

I don't need to produce a different source other than BARC. It is Indian, I'm an Indian and I fully trust the institution and the scientists who run the institution. And why shouldn't I, the two successive PMs from different political parties have. Do you think the Americans need Soviet certification for work done at Los Amos Laboratories? Did the Chinese go the US to proof their bombs?

What the Chinese and Soviets did is that they blasted 50+ bombs and left no one in doubt about their capabilities.
What they didn't do is blast one TN and claim that they don't need any other tests since they can simulate the future tests.

And you are right the onus of the proof is on the guy making the claim. Since you are making the fizzle claim its you who has to prove it.

If the proof and numbers are shrouded in OSA, then how can KS quote them?
Being one of the very few who participated in the test, he has questioned the claims (again guarded under OSA) using the Western quotes/claims.

[amit]

If the proof and numbers are shrouded in OSA, then how can KS quote them?
Being one of the very few who participated in the test, he has questioned the claims (again guarded under OSA) using the Western quotes/claims.

Milind boss, I'd suggest you have a look at the entire series of posts that wrote on this particular subject. I did not expect or want KS to quote proof. Rather it was the poster who I wanted to quote the proof.

For what it's worth, I think KS did an extremely brave thing. He used, very cleverly and exclusively, NPA arguments to show that the TN was a fizzle. And thus, IMHO, he undercut the NPA lobby which has been the main instrument in creating pressure on India to sign CTBT.

And do note how the NPAs are already backtracking. Milohen is already on record saying that no one can doubt India's capabilities yada yada.

Hope that helps.

[Sanku]

edited.

[Raja Ram]

Fizzle ya Sizzle tamasha can continue.

Let me focus on the statement by the PM. It does not provide comfort to those who hold the theory that Santhanam's comments were at the behest of GOI. Nothing so far said by the PM or the NSA indicates that. On the contrary the latest statement on the need for being seen as constructive and the importance of accessing technology, capital and economic growth indicates support to my long held view about our distinguished economist PM's vision for India.

It is a vision thing. I am also in agreement that he is not alone in having that vision and probably most Indians have the same vision. Nuclear deterrence means nothing, having a strong military capability is not that important, having a terror free India is not important, people die all the time after all, having sovereign options is not important.

To ask for a more balanced vision, well that is a jingoistic and militaristic thing to do. That is why things that matter so much to BR like fizzle ya sizzle or India signing or not signing four letter treaties that consign us to a second rate nuclear power, are not concerns for all Indians.

It is in this context Santhanam's statement has to be seen, he seems to be an yesterday's man - believing in India having its rightful place and role in the world. Not just economically but in all facets. The current generation is not interested in these things. They want to be recognised by the west that we are as good as them in movie making, money making, runing sporting franchises, passing laws to be more "liberal" than others etc.

Of course it does not matter to try and do things ourselves in key areas and surpass the west, its not a cool thing to do, like building a tank, or a nuclear bomb, or launching satellites. Doesn't help in making money does it?

It is still to early though to come to a firm conclusion that GOI headed by our distinguished economist PM is prepared to sign CTBT. At best, we can only say that GOI has not done anything to reiterate that it will not sign such things and there is a cautionary note too. The statement by the PM indicates that he intends to do something "constructive" and his NSA is looking for big ideas for the upcoming state visit.

A positive way to look at all this is, Santhanam has said the unpleasant things that GOI wants to say so that message is clear to the US and the regional super power wannabe, that dont push us, for if you do we will show the ungli again as ABV did then. (I miss that picture!). So this leaves the PM to claim, when his American hosts ask him to show statesmanship and global leadership by agreeing to sign CTBT and climate control, that we cannot sign any CTBT or other lemons. On the contrary, we may have to test a few new ones because our neighbourhood is acting up again.

Reading the signals in the wind will therefore have to continue. So surely more rambles will follow as events unfold.

[Haria]

Some OT nonsense from my side to make sense out of some nonsense post/er_s

Some people will always:

1. Trust MMS even after 1000 S-E-S.
2. Trust the peaceful nature of Chinese.
3. Doubt the need for India to have bums.
4. Question the credibility / integrity / capability of truth speaking whistle blowers (ala KS)
5. Will produce only hot air.
6. Follow Shiv's "You fart" theory.
7. when left with no alternative resort to personal attacks.

what a nerve....

If some so called patriotic Indians are sleeping after S-e-S and donot realise the extent to which the current 400% reliable GOI can go to damage Indian interests then it is futile to talk sense to them.

[tripathi]

edited.

[Raja Ram]

edited my post that was made in response to a post by tripathi where he had attributed to me things that I have not said. Since he has withdrawn the post, I have edited out my response too.

[andy B]

let us give the kashmir to pak shift non muslims to india,Arunachal and north east to china west bengal assam to bengladesh and shift all those who want to live as indians to india.Atleast we will have peace with our neighbors then.coz these regions dont contripute to indian developement and holding back india economically for past 60 yrs for one or the other millitancy.anyway india has been wrongly occupying these areas of our neighbours for past 60 yrs.can u ppl guess how much indians paid in blood and money to keep them in india.its better let all those area secede who dont want to live with india.anyway this is the vision of our ruling elites and the majority of indian brothers ans sisiters.Rajaram ji has correctly articulated this sin feburary as the things getting unfold in pats 100 day rule of mms.india is next rising poodle of usa indirectly controlled by china and pak.

Errr... by the above el maginfique' logique China should lay to rest its claims over Taiwan and should let Tibet, Mongolia the islands in South China Sea let go. Britain should give back Falklands to Argentine, Israel should vanquish all claims over westbank and turn over all of Jerusalem to Palestine ityadi, actually now that I think about it all disputed territories all over the world should be given back to their orignal occupants owner nations...Bravo!

[Mahendra]

3 in 1 Paki ji

There is a whine thread for ,where you can articulate your contempt towards your nation

[RajeshA]

tripathi ji,

If I may say so, your comments border either

- extreme frustration from some patriotic Indian
- naive wkk recipes
- troll outpourings

I am very much leaning to the view that they are 'troll outpourings'!

[tripathi]

sorry my china thread post got pasted in previous one.i edited it out.Rajaramji i meant the vision of japan model of the present leadership not the secession.sorry for the mix up of the posts.thats why confusion arose.i edited it out.

[shiv]

Whats wrong with Khetolai, its like any other village in India if not better. It boasts of 100% literacy.

er .. I can't resist this.. there used to be a lot of cracks in Khetolai in 1998

[shiv]

NO, the people in GoI which said F Off to the entire EJ brigade and made the Dam

Villagers bigger than Khetolai are relocated to makes some roads in India.

Khetolai is a red herring, when all else fails blame Khetolai.....

Sanku saheb couple of things:

1. Relocating a village would have compromised the secrecy of the entire TEST.
2. I believe we should distinguish and appreciate the difference between a DAM and a nuke test from civillian pov too.

I just wonder if the proximity to Khetolai was dictated by the nature of the geology which may have been useful for masking. (Disclaimer: I am merely asking about this possibility. I am not categorically stating that it was done.)

[krishnan]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pokhran-II

[Dileep]

I am wearing the 'fiction writer hat', so here is the take:

K. Santhanam was the "Chief Adviser (Technologies)" to DRDO. His past experience was with RAW (after a stint at BARC, as per someone). So what did he advise DRDO on? Obviously about how to protect their stuff against the snoops. It wouldn't have been about how to make/test the nuclear weapons, because if DRDO needed an adviser on that, they would have hired someone from BARC.

He was "Director of Site Preparation" for the test. What is so great with the preparation? Digging? No one blames him to be a digging expert. Army Engg does that very well. Shaft design? The BARC team knows it better.

So, what was his job? Given his established competencies?

Of course, to hide all the activities from the snoops. He did a stellar job at it for sure.

Was he the 'Test Director'? With complete responsibility for the test? I don't think so. APJ, as head of DRDO held that position. The only attribute I saw for KS is the "Director of Site Preparation".

I read Arun_S claim of a plaque in his drawing room. I wonder what exact wording it said. I tend to think that it would only be in general terms, given the paranoia about confidentiality.

So, KS was the "Director of Site Preparation", responsible for the intelligence/counter-intelligence issues with respect to the test.

All test and measurements were done by BARC.

And here comes the fiction part:

KS was kept out of loop of the technical side, which he didn't like a bit. He was not involved with the collection of the data and analysis of the results. He felt that it was unjust. He was pretty qualified and capable of contributing in that areas as well, but he was treated as "just another snoop" by RC and APJ. He was angry, but could do nothing about it. The only information about the yields etc he got was from the public domain. He might have even asked for involvement, and denied.

So, three elements worked together in his mind. One, the resentment that he was unjustly kept out of the 'good stuff'. Two, the suspicion that it was because RC and team had something to hide. Three, the widespread accusations in the international media that the test was a fizzle.

People have mentioned that he used to express his reservations in private in the past. I have this feeling that he used to diss and blame RC during those chats as well. Since no secrets were revealed (he didn't have any, in reality), no serious effects were there.

It all changed when the reported brought it public, (illegally) quoting him.

Disclaimer: The above is fiction, coming from the same mind that produces the "Spy Story". Creative license onlee..

[shyamd]

IMO, as long as India retains the right to test, we are okay. I think the tactic is, if the foreign companies become highly invested in India, sanctions are going to be useless, as it will effect western trade ultimately (tactic used by many nations). West will lose a lot of investments, if the US or west decides to sanction India. We know the business provides the $$'s for those senators and presidents. So money will talk. India is building a very strong lobbying power in DC. I am confident that yindu's will test when the time is right. Give it a few years or maybe sooner, if chincs continue their acts.

However, deterrence will need to be increased hugely, even if we test, we have to manufacture warheads, which takes time. So, hopefully strategywallah's have calculated when to conduct test. The timing is right for KS to come out, let there be a debate and show the world that our options are open.

All IMVHO

[NRao]

Dileep,

What KS has stated is nothing new. From day 5, pretty much all analysis from outside India has been questioning the test/s (the two that were carried out two days later it seems did not even register on the instruments in Pakistan!!!). So, what he stated about fizzle, is it new? Is he revealing something we did not know?

CTBT has always been an issue. So, what is new there? MMS will back into ALL these treaties. He has to.

And, the the thinking that "Babus" would prevent any politicians from signing such deals should be rotting into the past. So, perhaps, it looks like, that check is also non-existent.

The only hope is, in the power play that has to occur, that India will be able to modify the contentS of these treaties. And, in the process actually bring about a much needed balance to this insanity.

Obama does not have to do much outside of constantly stating that Indo-US relations are special - just as Bush stated "India - power". Indians in general and leadership in particular does not need much beyond that to sign anything, anywhere.

[Sanku]

That was rather depressing eve if accurate view of the situation.

And we Jingo's were keeping our hopes up form Arihant and everything.

I am not even sure if the number and types of missiles we have will even be able to get through the BMD shield the enemy is likely to have.

[NRao]

IMO, as long as India retains the right to test, we are okay. I think the tactic is, if the foreign companies become highly invested in India, sanctions are going to be useless, as it will effect western trade ultimately (tactic used by many nations).

There is a certain amount of logic in that statement.

However, IF India were to rely on Western trade to "test", then clearly India has lost her "right" to test.

It has to be clear to Indians that they have a right as much as the US or Russia. That India is a contributing country - not a recipient - in the nuclear field. Just that by importing India can save on time and cost.

But, as long as India is in a bind - economically or other wise, she will always be manipulated. Bad rains, import food - good enough for political manipulation.

India cannot remain a third world nation in some respects and expected to be treated like a first world nation in others. It cannot happen.

[Sanku]

India cannot remain a third world nation in some respects and expected to be treated like a first world nation in others. It cannot happen.

This would have been a welcome hope if not for the Chinese example. They did do what they had to even when not is such a good shape. They do what they have to when in good shape.

This is where I disagree, I think it just boils down to political will and vision for the country.

[Kanson]

I am wearing the 'fiction writer hat', so here is the take:

K. Santhanam was the "Chief Adviser (Technologies)" to DRDO. His past experience was with RAW (after a stint at BARC, as per someone). So what did he advise DRDO on? Obviously about how to protect their stuff against the snoops. It wouldn't have been about how to make/test the nuclear weapons, because if DRDO needed an adviser on that, they would have hired someone from BARC.

He was "Director of Site Preparation" for the test. What is so great with the preparation? Digging? No one blames him to be a digging expert. Army Engg does that very well. Shaft design? The BARC team knows it better.

So, what was his job? Given his established competencies?

Of course, to hide all the activities from the snoops. He did a stellar job at it for sure.

I asked this question at the starting of the dicussion to the people who said KS is this, that etc, "What is the exact profile of KS ?" And the question is still open and no one, who has asserted KS as Lead/Head of ... so far tried to answer that. Still the question is open..

Was he the 'Test Director'? With complete responsibility for the test? I don't think so. APJ, as head of DRDO held that position. The only attribute I saw for KS is the "Director of Site Preparation".

I read Arun_S claim of a plaque in his drawing room. I wonder what exact wording it said. I tend to think that it would only be in general terms, given the paranoia about confidentiality.

So, KS was the "Director of Site Preparation", responsible for the intelligence/counter-intelligence issues with respect to the test.

All test and measurements were done by BARC.

Except the seismic part, all the cose-in measurements and Radio-chemical anlysis are purely handled by BARC.

And here comes the fiction part:

KS was kept out of loop of the technical side, which he didn't like a bit. He was not involved with the collection of the data and analysis of the results. He felt that it was unjust. He was pretty qualified and capable of contributing in that areas as well, but he was treated as "just another snoop" by RC and APJ. He was angry, but could do nothing about it. The only information about the yields etc he got was from the public domain. He might have even asked for involvement, and denied.

So, three elements worked together in his mind. One, the resentment that he was unjustly kept out of the 'good stuff'. Two, the suspicion that it was because RC and team had something to hide. Three, the widespread accusations in the international media that the test was a fizzle.

People have mentioned that he used to express his reservations in private in the past. I have this feeling that he used to diss and blame RC during those chats as well. Since no secrets were revealed (he didn't have any, in reality), no serious effects were there.

It all changed when the reported brought it public, (illegally) quoting him.

Disclaimer: The above is fiction, coming from the same mind that produces the "Spy Story". Creative license onlee..

You are not the only one having this allusion.

[Dileep]

I asked this question at the starting of the dicussion to the people who said KS is this, that etc, "What is the exact profile of KS ?" And the question is still open and no one, who has asserted KS as Lead/Head of ... so far tried to answer that. Still the question is open..

I did some search and re-search to get hold of a CV of the guy. Couldn't find any. No info on his qualifications and work experience were seen. Does anyone have them?

(No disrespect is intended. I just want to know the real man)

Except the seismic part, all the cose-in measurements and Radio-chemical anlysis are purely handled by BARC.

Who did the seismic part? Meteorology people?

[NRao]

India cannot remain a third world nation in some respects and expected to be treated like a first world nation in others. It cannot happen.

This would have been a welcome hope if not for the Chinese example. They did do what they had to even when not is such a good shape. They do what they have to when in good shape.

This is where I disagree, I think it just boils down to political will and vision for the country.

Sankuji,

IMHO, India needs to stop looking around - what others have done, are doing, etc.

Past is past. Gone.

Start afresh here, in this moment. Power of Now.

Can be done. Q: Is there a will to do it? Collectively.

[amit]

the question then is, was KS wearing his RAW hat when making the statement?

[Kanson]

Someone was asking why S-6 was same as S-1? Well in statistics if you can get three successful tests the confidence liimits are 90%. So most likely they were trying to show the confidence levels with S-6.

Is there any anecdotal referrence to the claim of S6 is the replica of S1 ? The reason i'm asking is i find no science behind testing the same twice in the same slot of time.( Its my personal view).

Regarding your reason of increasing the confidence limits by testing more and more, first of all this not production weapon that is tested. It is merely a device meant to validate and expand the knowledge on the subject.

Further, repeatability of science experiment is valid only when the science is new and not proven. Simply to validate already proven results which were obtained by various studies/experiements it does need one test considering the cirucumstances we were in.

[Sanku]

Q: Is there a will to do it? Collectively.

I do not disagree, any references to past or others is only to understand and study.

There is a moment. Let us see where it takes us.

[Kanson]

I asked this question at the starting of the dicussion to the people who said KS is this, that etc, "What is the exact profile of KS ?" And the question is still open and no one, who has asserted KS as Lead/Head of ... so far tried to answer that. Still the question is open..

I did some search and re-search to get hold of a CV of the guy. Couldn't find any. No info on his qualifications and work experience were seen. Does anyone have them?

(No disrespect is intended. I just want to know the real man)

I was expecting answer on this from Arun_S as he himself claimed that he know Shri Santhanam very well.

Since you asked, my simple answer is he is a RAW guy so no CV. But he is a techie to an extent, afaik he is not into Reseach. Dr. K.Santhanam is different from Shri K.Santhanam. The man in question is Shri K.Santhanam.

Except the seismic part, all the cose-in measurements and Radio-chemical anlysis are purely handled by BARC.

Who did the seismic part? Meteorology people?[/quote] Yes, met people.

[pankajs]

Start afresh here, in this moment. Power of Now.

Can be done. Q: Is there a will to do it? Collectively.

Saar, new foreign policy has already been rolled out. I have posted our PM's comments to the elites of Indian foreign policy establishment. Simply stated it is, be the good boys of the international system (Whatever it means). No naughty behavior, no duels with neighbors, definitely no dhamak-shamaka, etc

x-posting from the Global economy thread
-------------------------------------------

UPA needs to look before it leaps

Later this week, India will get active at talks in two multilateral forums, the outcome of which will doubtless be crucial for its future political economy. The actions of the country’s policy wonks will be watched closely, more because it would also underline the new-found zeal of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) to recast the country’s international image from that of a predictable spoiler to a more proactive participant in crucial global negotiations.

However, the advent of the UPA 2.0—with a 200-seat plus Congress victory in the 15th general election, fewer allies and no Left parties—has progressively signalled a radical shift in stance. Most of the efforts have been subtle, but connecting the dots reveal that slowly and steadily India is redrawing its position on the crucial subjects of trade and climate change.

Officially, there is no word from the government about either any change in stance or the underlying reasons if any, even while it is visibly moving the goal post. Informally, though, interlocutors do concede that India is introducing a flexibility in its negotiating position largely to avoid being hemmed in by its rivals, especially on grounds of being a spoiler.

Whatever be the reasons, hopefully the government recognizes the underlying risks of the country’s new negotiating stance. While they may be game changers that would eventually return a greater net benefit to the country, there is also a downside risk of such out-of-the-box thinking going awry. The danger of the latter is that it will nix what may be a game changing idea and set the clock back, maybe even permanently.

According to the latest prescription from the PMO on how to drive foreign policy, the wheels of change are already in motion. Now you tell me, can it be done?

[enqyoob]

I was just passing by and seeing the circus go round and round (won't mention the term "EB"- this honorable designation seems to offend some). But wading back through all the posts, I see only the following discussion on the 3 questions that still bother me, and if not refuted, prove that the tests were as successful as the GOI claimed.

1. Why were S1 and S2 simultaneous - IOW, why didn't S2 precede S1 (in which case it would have been called S1, yes I know..) What I mean is, why wasn't the most powerful blast done AFTER the other test that had to be done that day?

2. Why was S6 not tested?

3. Why was the damage to the village not avoided?

Here is the discussion so far that I can capture from the oceans of wisdom above since I asked those. Ramana, Arun_S, pls contribute your insights here as well, thanks.

Gagan wrote:
narayanan wrote:
Of course that raises the question: Why pull back S6 is S1 DID succeed? Why not go for the 95% confidence demonstration etc? Answer: Because it would have been very dangerous, given what happened with S1. Lots of fractures, the structures up top were "incinerated" (The HINDU report) - chances of a large atmospheric release may have been very scary.

So the best explanation for S6 withdrawal is that S1 DID work considerably more than predicted - and the seismic waves were stronger than expected, so it caused a lot of worries. They were happy about the yield, and didn't want to push their luck by perhaps triggering a big atmospheric release.

1. It is also possible that the shaft of S6 was shallower than S1. (Assuming the S1 sizzled)

2. Or after S1 fizzled, the thought of protecting echendee occurred and S6 was not allowed to go ahead because it would have generated a clear, uncluttered signal for videshis to analyze. (Perhaps also the reason why S1 was clubbed together with S2 and S3 - because the design team were not fully sure it will sizzle, this being the first ever thermonuclear test, and the chances of a fizzle were understandably high.)


Here also for the scenario 2, if scientists knew that it was a fizzle, they could just passed it as another 15KT fission bomb test. Since they insisted on mentioning it as a TN test, it should have been successful

Amit wrote:
Actually Negi,

If you look at N^3's post he raises an interesting issue.

This is my understanding of what he's trying to say.

Khetolai was near the test site and it wasn't a good idea to vacate the village and that would have been a give way of the test. And so the site of the explosion was chosen in such a manner that the village would be outside the test zone, in the safe zone, if you will.

Now we know for certain that Khetolai, was very much within the seismic zone of the blasts as the walls cracked. I can see two possible reasons for this.

1) The testers miscalculated the radius of the test zone and it should have been bigger and should have included the village.

2) It could be that the test zone was calculated properly but the yield was more than expected (this is what IMO, N^3 was saying).

Now the question is if it was a fizzle then the impact zone should have been even smaller and the impact would have been well within the test zone. Alternatively their was gross miscalculation of the danger (test) zone.

Now I'm speculating but I would think that KS as test director would be, in consultation with others, setting the safe zone wouldn't he be?

IMO, that's the gist of N^3 argument. Bringing in NGOs, Narmada Dam etc are just red herrings.

Following up on those:

1. Why were S1 and S2 located so close that there was any reason to fear damage to one from the other?

Maybe the test area was not big enough and they didn't want to spread the activity out over any larger area than was essential. Also, maybe it takes at least 3 hours to drag a new test article into place, and that interval may be enough for the drumbeat from the P-5 to impact GOI?

IOW, there must have been some very strong reason to say that the FIRST blast would be the most powerful test. The reason for this is geopolitics: It was well-established that India had fissile weapons, since 1974. So another fission-only test would not be enough, but any sign of it would be immediately used by the P-5 to bring all kinds of pressure. Hot-line phone calls to the PMO, etc. etc.

If it turned out that the shaft for the Big One was damaged, and there was a delay of 2 days, it would be a repeat of 1995. GOI might chicken out. SO! S1 had to be the Big One.

Why not take it out in the middle of the desert, far from Khetolai? Because that would be exactly the sign that the satellites look for - the big ONGC Prospecting Operation, far enough away from human habitation to allow a 1MT explosion. So S1 had to be in the general vicinity of the Test Range, meaning not too far from Khetolai.

Evacuating Khetolai ahead of time was not an option, for reasons given above. That would be a dead giveaway. So S1 had to go off within a couple of hours of the evacuation of Khetolai.

Now we ask: So what was the hurry to test S2? Wouldn't a nice Big One S1 be enough to make the point? Well... per ramana, S2 was the other necessary component to make S1 credible as part of a weapon. So if S1 happened, the pressure would build hugely to not test S2. Noooo. that's not quite credible.

So where that leaves me, is that the simultaneous blasts of S1 and S2 were designed with just one purpose: mask their true yield and defeat the monitors. So no matter how much ppl are going to jump up and down and rave and rant and taunt about "fizzles", I trust that no one who KNOWS is going to reveal the true yield and its breakdown between S1 and S2. BOTH needed to be masked, apparently.

BUT... they still had enough time to design the blasts so that there would not be significant damage to Khetolai, even if they had to invent an ONGC operation and go deep into the desert for it. IF they thought they needed the distance, to demonstrate the yield that they wanted. It made ABSOLUTELY no sense to blow up poor people's belongings and have their roofs fall down, which is what would have happened if the blasts had been even a small bit stronger.

So! I am back to concluding that the combined yield from the S1-S2 blast exceeded their expectations by quite a bit. This makes sense, because yield predictions would have been conservative.

IOW, I don't see any defensible basis for claiming that S1 was DESIGNED to have a yield 50% or even 10% higher than what it demonstrated.

KS set off a national debate on the CTBT, which is, I hope, precisely what he intended. All the rest is media and other spies trying to goad revelations of what no one has been able to figure out: the precise designs of S1 and S2.

The asymmetric cratering is also now seen to be a deliberate result : it frustrates all the simpler yield/design calculations.

The above is IMO a very simple but very robust proof that the yield was what the designers EXPECTED it to be. Not necessarily that it was 43 or 83 or 13, but whatever the tests were designed to do. Which, IMO, was all that was necessary to test. As in, I can not only burst a thermonuke, but my design confidence is so good that I dare to set it off at a given distance from a village, and they suffer SOME damage at most, but not catastropic damage.

That should be enough of a deterrent to anyone with a brain, which means it deters all except Paki jernails and other soosai megalomaniacs.

[NRao]

new foreign policy has already been rolled out.

Sorry, I should have been more explicit.

I meant internal happenings.

IMHO, the growth of India is something like if one of your arms grew normally and the other was abnormal. India cannot be a nuclear power and have the world's largest slums. Extremes is what India needs to get control of. It is useless to electrify villages for the sake of electrification - tell the world, all our villages have electricity. Then what?

India needs a good growth plan. It perhaps has one, but is not implementing them right?

Being a nuclear power is fine. BUT, we have to keep in mind it is ONLY to keep China in check. To ensure that India does not expend energies beyond what is absolutely needed, India NEEDS to get things right and not have controversies.

[shyamd]

There is a certain amount of logic in that statement.

However, IF India were to rely on Western trade to "test", then clearly India has lost her "right" to test.

It has to be clear to Indians that they have a right as much as the US or Russia. That India is a contributing country - not a recipient - in the nuclear field. Just that by importing India can save on time and cost.

But, as long as India is in a bind - economically or other wise, she will always be manipulated. Bad rains, import food - good enough for political manipulation.

India cannot remain a third world nation in some respects and expected to be treated like a first world nation in others. It cannot happen.

NRao, India is in a position where they can dictate, because the west is becoming well invested into India. Most of the Indian economy is based on internal consumption, all the MNC's are here, its too costly for the west to sanction us. I mean look at Iran, there are always ways to get around the sanctions, even if they did. ALWAYS.

Okay, they can blackmail us on food or some imports. We can say, fine, your nation will lose out on $$billions of contracts. NRao, this is the best time to test, because the west can't do anything. They are literally almost on their knees due to Iraq. Thats what Iran has been saying all along. There are US treasury teams visiting the GCC for cash, they are desperate (I am sure MEAwallah's are more than aware). They NEED India at this juncture. India can afford to test in the next few years. It just needs to play the right cards and test for all the right reasons, prepare the economy for sanctions etc.

Lets say India tests, we can then sign CTBT. No one can say anything to us.

IMO, strategic wallah's are playing this whole KS thing out, because:

1) Chinese are expected to show/showing aggression
2) Keep our options open
3) If CTBT etc is pushed by west as they have hinted privately, then we will test.

Personally, I am not too worried as long as we retain the right to test. Let MMS or whoever make the decision when they feel the time is right. IMO, I would say now would be the best time to do the tests.

[symontk]

I was just passing by and seeing the circus go round and round (won't mention the term "EB"- this honorable designation seems to offend some). But wading back through all the posts, I see only the following discussion on the 3 questions that still bother me, and if not refuted, prove that the tests were as successful as the GOI claimed.

1. Why were S1 and S2 simultaneous - IOW, why didn't S2 precede S1 (in which case it would have been called S1, yes I know..) What I mean is, why wasn't the most powerful blast done AFTER the other test that had to be done that day?

2. Why was S6 not tested?

3. Why was the damage to the village not avoided?

Here is the discussion so far that I can capture from the oceans of wisdom above since I asked those. Ramana, Arun_S, pls contribute your insights here as well, thanks.

Gagan wrote:
narayanan wrote:
Of course that raises the question: Why pull back S6 is S1 DID succeed? Why not go for the 95% confidence demonstration etc? Answer: Because it would have been very dangerous, given what happened with S1. Lots of fractures, the structures up top were "incinerated" (The HINDU report) - chances of a large atmospheric release may have been very scary.

So the best explanation for S6 withdrawal is that S1 DID work considerably more than predicted - and the seismic waves were stronger than expected, so it caused a lot of worries. They were happy about the yield, and didn't want to push their luck by perhaps triggering a big atmospheric release.

1. It is also possible that the shaft of S6 was shallower than S1. (Assuming the S1 sizzled)

2. Or after S1 fizzled, the thought of protecting echendee occurred and S6 was not allowed to go ahead because it would have generated a clear, uncluttered signal for videshis to analyze. (Perhaps also the reason why S1 was clubbed together with S2 and S3 - because the design team were not fully sure it will sizzle, this being the first ever thermonuclear test, and the chances of a fizzle were understandably high.)


Here also for the scenario 2, if scientists knew that it was a fizzle, they could just passed it as another 15KT fission bomb test. Since they insisted on mentioning it as a TN test, it should have been successful

From the open sources,

1. S1 is TN and so it can damage the S2/S3 if not done simultaneously. I didn't find any data on the sepeartion of the shafts to make any assumptions. We have to believe S1 / S2 / S3 are closer. S4 / S5 / S6 are farther than these. S4 and S5 should not impact S6 since they being light ones.

Do we have the Google map for these locations to get the shaft seperation data?

2. India had limited TN devices fabricated, so to save for another day. TN device cost also needs to be considered.

If you take Indian space vehicle example, everytime they launch a PSLV/GSLV, there will be a exact duplicate kept in the warehourse as a spare. Actually it is said that in case a launch fails, they can launch another one in 30 days by just assembling the spare. Although it was never ever attempted in any of the Indian launch failures. After the launch, the spare is always taken back to production plants.

Here I believe S6 was spare in case S1 misfired. The point here is that S1 didnt misfire and scientists were confident of S1 results. Also S6 was pulled after three days of the first test (May 11 and May13/14), means they had already verified the results and got the confirmation.

3. The test was designed not to damage the nearby villages, also serious damages never happened too.

[Sumair]

Why can't we test without announcing it to the world every time? Smaller yields can easily be tested without outside detection as long as we use the simple precaution of not using the same site over and over. And for the thermonuclear type yields!.... Well we can simply deny just like everyone else does. We don't always have to be holier than thou. Western countries would turn a blind eye, because they want us to be a counter balance to China. It is only after they are put on the spot via their public opinion that they are forced to act. So in conclusion as nation do what you must, but be discrete about it. Even if we do sign the CTBT, we can still test. After all there is no international police to enforce any of these agreements, they are all voluntary and nations choose to abide by or ignore depending upon their best interest. Sanctions? What sanctions...Ex Iran, Venezuela, Libya...and on and on
Thanks to our old socialist economic model, the Indian economy is very resilient and not impacted hugely by the external economic forces. Sanctions be dammed. World needs India a lot more today and cannot afford to isolate it. And if done we will go on along our marry way..

[Kanson]

If you take Indian space vehicle example, everytime they launch a PSLV/GSLV, there will be a exact duplicate kept in the warehourse as a spare. Actually it is said that in case a launch fails, they can launch another one in 30 days by just assembling the spare. Although it was never ever attempted in any of the Indian launch failures. After the launch, the spare is always taken back to production plants.

Here I believe S6 was spare in case S1 misfired. The point here is that S1 didnt misfire and scientists were confident of S1 results. Also S6 was pulled after three days of the first test (May 11 and May13/14), means they had already verified the results and got the confirmation.

You know why they didnt launch the other one, as you said, when there is failure. Its becoz unles you can pin point the exact failure and take remedial action, you are going to have the same failure.

[enqyoob]

And that was the other issue: Why S6 was not tested. The evidence so far indicates that if S1 was a partial failure, there was absolutely no reason not to test S6, and every reason to see how partial S6 would be. So the only reason is that S1 was a success, and there was no point in letting the spies see more of its design by setting off S6.

The probably stencilled "Beijing" on S6 and put it in storage.

[Gerard]

Do we have the Google map for these locations to get the shaft seperation data?

Ayatollah Persbo has placemarked the 5 Pok-2 holes and the original place where Buddha smiled.

google earth kmz

http://verificationthoughts.googlepages ... yRange.kmz