Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Locked
Arun_S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2800
Joined: 14 Jun 2000 11:31
Location: KhyberDurra

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by Arun_S »

ramana wrote:Unfortunately by engaging in debate the Radio Chem analysis will be the one that will get more attention. Folks as I said before no point in using out of country sources for they have their POV. And there are a number of sources and statements. We are not looking hard. I recall their was retired geologist who was quoted in Ind Exp about his surprise at the readings.
I second that thought. Pls read that BARC Radio Chem paper. I re-read it today and it was an EYE OPENER.

POST SHOT RADIOACTIVITY MEASUREMENTS ON SAMPLES EXTRACTED FROM THERMONUCLEAR TEST SITE By S.B.Manohar, B.S.Tomar, S.S.Rattan, V.K.Shukla, V.V.Kulkarni and Anil Kakodkar

Anyone with basic physics and geometry understanding will surely understand and appreciate its significance.
sudeepj
BRFite
Posts: 1982
Joined: 27 Nov 2008 11:25

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by sudeepj »

Arun_S wrote: POST SHOT RADIOACTIVITY MEASUREMENTS ON SAMPLES EXTRACTED FROM THERMONUCLEAR TEST SITE By S.B.Manohar, B.S.Tomar, S.S.Rattan, V.K.Shukla, V.V.Kulkarni and Anil Kakodkar

Anyone with basic physics and geometry understanding will surely understand and appreciate its significance.
Arun

can you please elaborate?
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60273
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by ramana »

Please let people think before posting.
Prem
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21234
Joined: 01 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: Weighing and Waiting 8T Yconomy

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by Prem »

Strange Fella/ exotic conclusion
India’s 1998 nuke ‘fizzle’
However, that will threaten comfortable the lifestyles of thousands of white-collar DAE staffers – brilliant brains transformed into deskbound pen-pushers rather than scientists by being forced to grope in darkness for years. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government, committed to economic reforms and liberalisation, could only secure the defection of the top saboteurs of the reforms process. Direct and indirect inducements could bring around Kalam, Chidambaram, Kakodkar, Mishra and several influential politicians, including top Communist heavyweights on board the reforms bandwagon. The Santhanam bomb only demonstrates that the anti-reforms lobby is furious at being let down by them. The idea is to embarrass them and put them on a slippery wicket with regard to demands for further nuclear proliferation with a Pokhran-III. It shows that Singh has a long way to go in purging India’s foreign ministry and strategic establishments of hawks who are hand in glove with elements keen to frustrate Singh’s reforms agenda.
The writer was a subcontractor of the Indian nuclear and space establishments before their focus veered to weapon development. Email: [email protected]
http://thenews.jang.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=195790
enqyoob
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2658
Joined: 06 Jul 2008 20:25

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by enqyoob »

This is what I love about BRF. So I ask a simple question, and 15 pages later here is this Einsteinian response from "Sudeepj":
That question is beyond silly. The entire village was evacuated, people asked to come out of their homes, before the experiments.

Yes, but the answer is totally brilliant, so it should make up for the stupidity of the question, thank Allah!

So your position is that Indian engineering design consists of doing something utterly disastrous, but evacuating the people from their homes that are about to be demolished and rendered radioactive if the design succeeds!!!!!

As opposed to digging the hole far enough away from their village to anticipate the maximum intensity of the blast.

Awesome! This is what one pays money to get on the internet and read on BRF. The sheer brilliance of that reasoning!!!!

I can see that sudeepj must be one of India's greatest engineers and intellectuals, but unfortunately I cannot aspire to such brilliance. In the slums where I slog, we have to do something really unfashionable, called "THINKING" before we approve a test plan. When people ask nasty questions like "how do you know that this won't cause a lot of collateral damage?" we cannot answer: "That's OK, I'll ask people to run away before I run my test!"

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

The simple question remains: If the predicted yield did not occur, why was there damage outside the test area? Wouldn't that have been utterly, criminally, irresponsible design, saved from total catastrophe only because the test did not yield even half the predicted yield? Don't the villagers of Rajasthan have any rights as Indian citizens? DRDO engineers get to demolish their homes at will?

Or was the test safety design in the hands of GTRE Kaveri program managers, comfortably assuming that the bomb would not work?

The argument that villages were evacuated from all surrounding areas, was an elementary precaution. There may have been venting, resulting in radioactive clouds drifting around. So there was no way to leave unsuspecting villagers in harm's way.

Note that I am not asking:" WHY was there ANY damage at all at the village?"

I am asking: "If the yield was indeed only 60% of design, then what would have been the damage at these villages with 100% design yield?"

The answer is clearly unacceptable, and leaves the simple conclusion that the yield was everything the designers hoped it would be. Regardless of how many chest-thumping experts give out abuse about the simplicity of the question, there is no other answer, and they only hold a mirror to themselves when they say "SILLY!"

Munna, as for "why is there Rona-Dhona?" the answer is
Because someone saw a way to embarass the govt.

The guy who came out with the declaration knows that no one can release the data (and if they do no one will believe it). This applies to ALL the people ranting here, and we go back to the other point raised in the Nuclear Deal tamasha:

1. The data are Classified.
2. The official version makes sense, per the papers published by approval.
3. No one who really knows the answer is allowed to explain it fully, or indeed to talk about it.
4. If someone claims to know some Inside Info, they are (a) spies (b) liars or (b) about to be arrested. Take your pick.


It so happens that the politics inside India have changed, so even people who were convinced, and who convinced us, that the official claimed yields were accurate, are now changing their story to make it appear that the Govt lied. Sad display of petty politics winning over national interest.

And I am citing the simple, well-documented, photographed evidence that proves beyond doubt (unless you believe that Indian test designers are as incompetent and criminally callous as sudeepj fancies Indian engineers to be) that the S-1 test yielded the maximum or more, of the expected yield.

Why was S1 limited to 43KT? Was it because Indians did not know in 1998 how to design a 150KT or 200KT weapon? Maybe. So I don't argue that it would be good to have an opportunity to test again - if it is compatible with other national priorities.
sudeepj
BRFite
Posts: 1982
Joined: 27 Nov 2008 11:25

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by sudeepj »

So your position is that Indian engineering design consists of doing something utterly disastrous, but evacuating the people from their homes that are about to be demolished and rendered radioactive if the design succeeds!!!!!
Another bit of sillyness.. How would the homes be rendered radioactive unless the shaft vents? As it happened, leave alone venting, the shaft did not even form a subsidence crater! Are you saying that the shaft was not designed to take a full yield shot? If so, why would it not form even a subsidence crater with a 45KT shot?

I dont have time to go through the rest of the pompous post, sorry to disappoint you, but your posts have been on my ignore list for a while now.. Actually any post with a ' :rotfl: ' is not serious and doesnt deserve to be read.
Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by Gerard »

Prem wrote:Strange Fella/ exotic conclusion
M Sampathkumar Iyangar
The writer was a subcontractor of the Indian nuclear and space establishments before their focus veered to weapon development.
http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/ ... _2024.html
7 August 1997
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) suspends production of engines for the Prithvi surface-to-surface missile (SSM) as one its key suppliers, Ascent Technologies Pvt. Ltd., halts the supply of "cooling rings" used in the engines. HAL officials say that they have not received cooling rings for almost one year. Ascent Technologies proprietor M. M. Sampath Kumar Iyengar declares that he will not do business with government companies including HAL, pending settlements of previous bills. HAL officials say that they are trying to persuade Iyengar to resume supplies.
—"Indian missile production stops over money row: daily," AFP, 7 August 1997, in Lexis-Nexis Academic Universe, 7 August 1997,
prataparudra
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 20
Joined: 09 Feb 2009 05:31

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by prataparudra »

http://www.tribuneindia.com/1998/98jul28/nation.htm#5
ndia tested H-bomb,says New Scientist
NEW DELHI, July 27 (UNI) — India’s first test at Pokhran on May 11 this year comprised a hydrogen bomb and the yield was closer to 60 kilotonne, it has been confirmed following the release of data collected by 125 seismic stations across the world.
There had been scepticism about India’s claim that it had exploded a hydrogen bomb as initial data from the seismic stations had recorded only 25 kilotonne.
The confirmation about the near 60 kilotonne yield has been carried by the reputed New Scientist Magazine and sets at rest the controversy whether or not India exploded a thermonuclear device. In Parliament, the government recently described as “erroneous” conclusions that the Pokhran tests did not comprise a hydrogen bomb.
The “magazine” said the tests co
Perception is not reality. From basic thinking, if a first design yields 25 KT, then learning from that an improved design , would more often than not , be more than trial 1.
Please remember, this is not a complex mechanical machine. This a chemical reaction. Not many moving parts, not many design variables.

We can easily modify the few variables and achieve desired results. Remember, when in doubt, make it stout. There is always that principle in design, trust me I'm a design engineer.

Our scientists can definitely add a factor of safety to design and make it work even without further testing. Dont worry too much.

What if we sign CTBT? we will break the rule and the law. Let the world see what we care.
John Snow
BRFite
Posts: 1941
Joined: 03 Feb 2006 00:44

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by John Snow »

From the very same rag New Scientist
India's tests pollute Pakistan
19 February 2000 by Rob Edwards
Magazine issue 2226. Subscribe and get 4 free issues.
PLUTONIUM from nuclear bombs exploded underground by India has polluted Pakistan's nuclear test site 800 kilometres away, according to sources in US intelligence. If true, India has breached its commitment to the 1963 Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which outlaws explosions that contaminate foreign countries.

India and Pakistan both carried out nuclear tests in May 1998. A report in the industry newsletter, Nuclear Fuel, says that plutonium was later found in samples collected by US intelligence agents from near the Pakistani site in the Chagai hills. They initially thought that Pakistan had detonated a plutonium weapon.

Now, however, analysis of the ratio of plutonium isotopes in the samples by the US Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico has shown that it leaked from one of the Indian explosions in the Pokaran desert, and was blown over to Pakistan. "It sounds plausible," says Trevor Findlay from Vertic, a nuclear test verification centre in London. "It is more likely that the plutonium is from an Indian test than a Pakistani one."
enqyoob
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2658
Joined: 06 Jul 2008 20:25

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by enqyoob »

Another "sudeepj" gem to be preserved for posterity:
Another bit of sillyness.. How would the homes be rendered radioactive unless the shaft vents? As it happened, leave alone venting, the shaft did not even form a subsidence crater! Are you saying that the shaft was not designed to take a full yield shot? If so, why would it not form even a subsidence crater with a 45KT shot?

I dont have time to go through the rest of the pompous post, sorry to disappoint you, but your posts have been on my ignore list for a while now.. Actually any post with a ' :rotfl: ' is not serious and doesnt deserve to be read.


Wow! And the genius understood all THAT without even READING my post since my posts are beneath him to read!!

Since I am on your "Ignore list", Yuwar Honner, you won't be reading this, so I can make more "sillyness" statements. So Yuwar Honner's position is that it is perfectly safe to place people close to nuclear tests, because, hey, the shaft can't vent, so radioactivity can NEVER be a problem!!! Chalta hai! Hit the button, Bhai, we can take care of any eventuality!

With brilliant engineering design philosophy like that, why does India need Pakistan to threaten it? Soosai engineering is right here, in the person of postor sudeepj! We are privileged to be in such company, though we may be on His Honner's Ignore List!

Please do continue to bless us with your impeccable manners and demeanor that so clearly demonstrate your upbringing and pedigree, not to mention the sheer brilliance of your posts! With so few Pakis visiting, it was getting so boring here. We need the :rotfl: :rotfl: since we are so silly!

Ooops! Now he can't read my post! :((
****************
For those above mental age of 2.5:

The village of Khetolai (marked as Khavolai on Google) is just as far away (in fact a bit further away) from the POK-2 test area as the "Logistics Base" is. So, if we are to understand the Einstein above, the Indian test designers placed a nuclear device whose expected yield would have demolished their own Logistics Base if it had worked as designed.

I assume the Test Designer was named Kalidasa??? :mrgreen:
munna
BRFite
Posts: 1392
Joined: 18 Nov 2007 05:03
Location: Pee Arr Eff's resident Constitution Compliance Strategist (Phd, with upper hand)

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by munna »

narayanan wrote:I assume the Test Designer was named Kalidasa??? :mrgreen:
N^3 some warning for such a post is in order I almost choked on my drink and am still coughing. :lol:
Last edited by munna on 01 Sep 2009 06:19, edited 1 time in total.
sudeepj
BRFite
Posts: 1982
Joined: 27 Nov 2008 11:25

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by sudeepj »

I never thought I would see a mod trolling, but I am.. Beta Narayanan, your talents are better displayed in the BENIS thread, stick to those environs :-D
ShauryaT
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5405
Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by ShauryaT »

ramana wrote:Unfortunately by engaging in debate the Radio Chem analysis will be the one that will get more attention. Folks as I said before no point in using out of country sources for they have their POV. And there are a number of sources and statements. We are not looking hard. I recall their was retired geologist who was quoted in Ind Exp about his surprise at the readings.

A sample of immediate reaction

LINK
Not only this it gets into bizarre territory, like how readings from only four of the seismic readings are correct and not others because they were at a certain angle in which the blast energy travelled, due to the multiple blasts and how one shock wave to a degree cancelled the other out, I am not a geologist but it was a real stretch for BARC to claim a 5.4 magnitude reading from those four stations, negating all others. Now, there are all kinds of other speculations of lead confinement, type of rock and how at a certain depth the strength of the rocks approach granite level and not sand rock, etc but....Global averages gave a reading of 5.2. The problem is even the 5.4 does not support a 43Kt yield, it supports a higher yield....The story just does not add up, was too many issues.

Also, the same doubts were cast on POK1, India did the same mistake later acknowledged that POK1 yield could not have been more than 10Kt, as per PKI and Sethna.

ramanaji: The NPA's do have their own agenda, but the message should be evaluated on its own merit, rather than summarily dismissed. Your words, let us look at the message and not the messenger :)
enqyoob
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2658
Joined: 06 Jul 2008 20:25

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by enqyoob »

I never thought I would see a mod trolling, but I am.. Beta Narayanan, your talents are better displayed in the BENIS thread, stick to those environs :-D
Wow! READ MY POST? AGAIN? What happened to your Ignore List, Yuwar Honner? And your Busy Schedule which prevents you from actually reading anything that takes more than 1-second attention-span?
Oh, Yes, of course, I am returning to the BENIS thread, Yuwar Honner, all these deep MIL Forum discussions should be left to the Real Experts who set off nuclear blasts that would demolish their own Logistics Base!!!! :rotfl:
munna
BRFite
Posts: 1392
Joined: 18 Nov 2007 05:03
Location: Pee Arr Eff's resident Constitution Compliance Strategist (Phd, with upper hand)

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by munna »

ShauryaT wrote: Now, there are all kinds of other speculations of lead confinement, type of rock and how at a certain depth the strength of the rocks approach granite level and not sand rock, etc but....Global averages gave a reading of 5.2. The problem is even the 5.4 does not support a 43Kt yield, it supports a higher yield....The story just does not add up, was too many issues.
The underlined is consistent with the damage that occurred to nearby village despite the precautions taken!
sudeepj
BRFite
Posts: 1982
Joined: 27 Nov 2008 11:25

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by sudeepj »

narayanan wrote: Oh, Yes, of course, I am returning to the BENIS thread :rotfl:
The first bit of sense you have made in a long long while.. der aye, durust aye* :-)

(* better late than never)

{sudeepJ: You have any technical or logical point to contribute to this thread? Or any thread? }
shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34981
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by shiv »

On the subject of radiochemical analysis data released by India I have to point out this comment

http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/India/I ... ields.html
One radiochemical analysis of the thermonuclear device test has been published in the BARC newsletter, [Manohar et al 1999]. This analysis attempts to calculate the total quantity of fissions that occurred and thus the total yield of the device (a fission-fusion-fission system in which fission would dominate the total yield). The method chosen was to measure the vertical distribution of fission products and fusion neutron activated isotopes in two bore holes (one at the center, and one offset by 32 m). Then by assuming a uniform distribution out to an estimated radius of the final cavity (claimed to be 40 m +/- 4m) the total quantity of isotopes was estimated. The yield estimate obtained was 50 kt with a claimed uncertainty of +/- 10 kt.

Radiochemical analysis is commonly said to be the most accurate means of yield determination. But this statement refers to an entirely different type of radiochemical analysis from what BARC performed in this study. The most accurate method is to determine the percentage of material fissioned by comparing the ratio of fission products to fissile material in a sample, thus giving the efficiency directly and with knowledge of the weapon design (how much fissile material is present) the yield can be easily calculated. Unfortunately publishing such data also discloses weapon design information normally kept secret. Attempting to directly calculate the total amount of fission is fraught with problems in accurately determining the three dimensional distribution of the material throughout the collapsed blast cavity.
Arun_S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2800
Joined: 14 Jun 2000 11:31
Location: KhyberDurra

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by Arun_S »

narayanan wrote:This is what I love about BRF. So I ask a simple question, and 15 pages later here is this Einsteinian response from "Sudeepj":
That question is beyond silly. The entire village was evacuated, people asked to come out of their homes, before the experiments.

Yes, but the answer is totally brilliant, so it should make up for the stupidity of the question, thank Allah!

So your position is that Indian engineering design consists of doing something utterly disastrous, but evacuating the people from their homes that are about to be demolished and rendered radioactive if the design succeeds!!!!!

As opposed to digging the hole far enough away from their village to anticipate the maximum intensity of the blast.

Awesome! This is what one pays money to get on the internet and read on BRF. The sheer brilliance of that reasoning!!!!

I can see that sudeepj must be one of India's greatest engineers and intellectuals, but unfortunately I cannot aspire to such brilliance. In the slums where I slog, we have to do something really unfashionable, called "THINKING" before we approve a test plan. When people ask nasty questions like "how do you know that this won't cause a lot of collateral damage?" we cannot answer: "That's OK, I'll ask people to run away before I run my test!"

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

The simple question remains: If the predicted yield did not occur, why was there damage outside the test area? Wouldn't that have been utterly, criminally, irresponsible design, saved from total catastrophe only because the test did not yield even half the predicted yield? Don't the villagers of Rajasthan have any rights as Indian citizens? DRDO engineers get to demolish their homes at will?

Or was the test safety design in the hands of GTRE Kaveri program managers, comfortably assuming that the bomb would not work?
Thanks Allah, if some one ask the same question as to why IAF has not placed order for 200 unqualified LCA flying the skies. They should trust the words of Kaveri designers, put them in and fly 200 unqualified/non-weaponized LCA. Someone misses the simple fact that only after LCA has demonstarted performance and capability it will be used as a weapon for war.

No such silly question asked for the 45kT TN bum, where RC designs it, RC build it, RC testes it, RC measures it, and post facto RC deciedes how low the bar should be for successful test. But then flunk the test; in that till now the fabled 100% successful S1 TN bum has NOT been manufactured and made available for deterrence. Wah Wah !!

Allah Kaa Rahem Hai.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60273
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by ramana »

If India tests, TSp will test something. And Iran will and Noko will test. All that wont it break NPT? What is the trade-off for not testing?
ShauryaT
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5405
Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by ShauryaT »

ramana wrote:If India tests, TSp will test something. And Iran will and Noko will test. All that wont it break NPT? What is the trade-off for not testing?
TSP has to validate their new boosted fission and plutonium weapons - they are ready...
shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34981
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by shiv »

As per Google uncle - the best way to mask yields of nuclear explosions is by putting the bum in a cavity. But that cavity has to be huge and the only way to create a cavity that big would be to wash away the salt in an underground salt dome. Interestingly the sames ref says such features exist in the Thar desert, but they say that washing the salt away need a lot of water and increased salinity in the outflow would be detected.

The second best method of masking the yield is apparently to test just above the water table in porous soil. I have provided the refs for this in earlier pages of this thread and I;'ll be damed if I am going to search 30 pages for them - maybe later. :eek:

The following reference that belongs to he fizzle camp says that PoK 1 (1974) was in such soil.

http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/India/I ... ields.html
The strata in which Pokhran-I was fired is described as being dry sandstone and shale above the water table ([Douglas et al 2001], quoting Chidambaram and Ramanna from Some studies of India’s peaceful nuclear explosion experiment, Proc. Tech. Committee on Peaceful Nuclear Explosions IV, IAEA, Vienna, 1975, pp. 421-427). From the available descriptions that are available about the shaft digging operations at Pokhran, it is clear that while the test shaft may have been above the water table, it was plagued by continual seepage and flooding, so that the porous moisture bearing rock is perhaps similar to the tuff at NTS. But the surface of the Pokhran site is clearly covered by a layer of sand - a material that does not bulk at all, and efficiently fills subsurface voids. It may also be that below the sandy surface of this area of the Thar Desert there is a layer of alluvium - a loose material that also does not bulk. Also the obviously shallow depth of the detonation would have shattered the rock overburden into small pieces reducing or eliminating bulking in any material prone to it. Thus the formation of a subsurface partial cavity, a temporary uplift mound, followed by cavity collapse and permanent subsidence crater formation in entirely consistent with an explosion that was large enough to be only marginally contained.
Disclaimer: I am not saying that any tests were masked. I am only asking if this is not an obvious thing to do if possible and am I the most intelligent person on earth and the only one to think of it.
enqyoob
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2658
Joined: 06 Jul 2008 20:25

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by enqyoob »

But then flunk the test; in that till now the fabled 100% successful S1 TN bum has NOT been manufactured and made available for deterrence. Wah Wah !!
Just out of curiosity - How do u know, Arun? Indian nuclear warhead inventory is published?

shiv:

From Googleswara, there seems to be some difference between surface at POK-1 and POK-2. Also, the "heart-shaped" damage area of POK-1 is still evident in Google images. "Marginally contained" means "nearly caused mushroom cloud" I assume? :eek:

This business of staying above the water table may explain why POK-2 tests did not use the cavern formed by POK-1 (or did they, for the May 13 tests?) although the POK-1 region seems to be much deeper into the desert, away from the roads and villages than POK-2.

If they have water table and seepage problems just 107 meters down, why is this place so much of a desert, I wonder. Actually Khetolai / Khavolai seems to have a lot of greenery, so does the "Logistics Base".

Now going to Nevada test site images, each bomb crater seems to be nice and round deep, and even has conical subsistence craters. Does this mean that these all vented mushroom clouds, I wonder, given the description you gave.

This is the other mystery. Mrs. G is shown walking across the POK-1 crater. Is radioactivity so low, so shortly after a fission test? What about in POK-2, where soldiers are shown standing next to deep fissures in the ground? Or are these chalta hai - koi baat nahin SOP?
vera_k
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4477
Joined: 20 Nov 2006 13:45

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by vera_k »

shiv wrote:Disclaimer: I am not saying that any tests were masked. I am only asking if this is not an obvious thing to do if possible and am I the most intelligent person on earth and the only one to think of it.
What would be the motivation of masking the tests? Note that BARC has not claimed that the tests were masked in order to rebut the claims of the naysayers.
shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34981
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by shiv »

vera_k wrote: What would be the motivation of masking the tests?
Obfuscation which not only prevents others from knowing your successes - it can mask your failures

vera_k wrote: Note that BARC has not claimed that the tests were masked in order to rebut the claims of the naysayers.
May I ask what your opinion of BARC's "claims" are. They can claim what they like but the question is if they will be believed by skeptics.

Talking openly about masking has two drawbacks that I can think of

1) It reduces credibility because you can claim a "masked test" even when no test or a fizzle was conducted
2) It gives away information about seismic structure of the area. This is important information that is used (as per many papers that I have read and linked on here over the past decade) to determine yields. If you do not know the structure of the rock you cannot determine yield.

However, if you already know (with certainty) the yield of any single test at any single site - you can use that data to determine the yield of all future tests (provided masking is not used)

For example if the exact yield of POK I (1974) is known, the exact yield of 1998 can be determined because the rock characteristics are the same.

Having said that there is even more confusion because teh May 11 1998 test produced a smaller squiggle in the seismic station at Gauribidanur in Karnataka than the 1974 tests

This issue is ridled with contradictions and questions.
shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34981
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by shiv »

narayanan wrote: shiv:

From Googleswara, there seems to be some difference between surface at POK-1 and POK-2. Also, the "heart-shaped" damage area of POK-1 is still evident in Google images. "Marginally contained" means "nearly caused mushroom cloud" I assume? :eek:

This business of staying above the water table may explain why POK-2 tests did not use the cavern formed by POK-1 (or did they, for the May 13 tests?) although the POK-1 region seems to be much deeper into the desert, away from the roads and villages than POK-2.

If they have water table and seepage problems just 107 meters down, why is this place so much of a desert, I wonder. Actually Khetolai / Khavolai seems to have a lot of greenery, so does the "Logistics Base".

Now going to Nevada test site images, each bomb crater seems to be nice and round deep, and even has conical subsistence craters. Does this mean that these all vented mushroom clouds, I wonder, given the description you gave.

This is the other mystery. Mrs. G is shown walking across the POK-1 crater. Is radioactivity so low, so shortly after a fission test? What about in POK-2, where soldiers are shown standing next to deep fissures in the ground? Or are these chalta hai - koi baat nahin SOP?

N3 I know you have the brain of a 4 year old. I also know that if you were testing in shallow sandy soil which would easily allow a mushroom cloud through you would ignore that information and set off the biggest bum you could muster and only the providence that helps the naive would save you because your bomb would fizzle and not break through the surface.

For the same reason you are excused for not knowing that the "R" in Indira stands for "radio-resistant"
Pranav
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5280
Joined: 06 Apr 2009 13:23

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by Pranav »

Folks, a basic question: What is the meaning of deterrence?

Deterrence is convincing others that you can smash their face.

You don't test a Bum to convince yourself. You test to put the fear of God in others.

Have we convinced the world?

Case closed.
shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34981
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by shiv »

Pranav wrote:
Have we convinced the world?

Case closed.

Have we been nuked yet?

Case still open...
Pranav
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5280
Joined: 06 Apr 2009 13:23

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by Pranav »

shiv wrote:
Have we been nuked yet?

Case still open...
You want to wait until a nuke falls on your head? The day somebody is willing to pay a 20 kiloton price is the day that will happen.
enqyoob
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2658
Joined: 06 Jul 2008 20:25

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by enqyoob »

:mrgreen:

shiv:

In the years since 1974 (and before), desi geologists and seismologists must have done a great deal of surveying and sensing all over the Pokhran test range. Isn't there an Air Force target practice site there as well? So they must have mapped out the propagation properties pretty thoroughly, from all the explosions daily, and got high sensitivity to catch even tiny explosions. Wonder where the 1995 test preparations were done, too. It still seems very puzling that the largest test was conducted so close to the base and the village. Must be the Kalidasa complex of the designers. If it had been me designing the test I would have sunk the shaft deep for the 600kT Fizzleswara bum, so that the radioactivity got dissolved in the ground water. It's great to be able to see the wells because of the glow, when the women have to go draw water at night.
shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34981
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by shiv »

Pranav wrote:
You want to wait until a nuke falls on your head?
Let me answer this doubt for the second time in this thread.

I will never know that my deterrence is not working 100% until someone nukes me.

As long as no one nukes me I can say

a) I am lucky
or
b) My deterrence is working

Take your pick...
andy B
BRFite
Posts: 1678
Joined: 05 Jun 2008 11:03
Location: Gora Paki

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by andy B »

Pranav wrote:Folks, a basic question: What is the meaning of deterrence?

Deterrence is convincing others that you can smash their face.

You don't test a Bum to convince yourself. You test to put the fear of God in others.

Have we convinced the world?

Case closed.

Yes Deterrence is convincing others that you can smash their face, but what happens when the number of these so called "others" increases or there is a potential increase in the capability of these others then yar Deterrence needs to follow Mr. Darvin's advise and Evolve...and evolution is proven with validation...no point evolving on the blackboard if it aint working in ze real world....or else...I shudder to think... :eek:
Pranav
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5280
Joined: 06 Apr 2009 13:23

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by Pranav »

shiv wrote:
I will never know that my deterrence is not working 100% until someone nukes me.
Nothing is 100% - even if you have tested a 200 kt bum successfully 100 times, there is no guarantee it will work the 101st time.

The real question is what level of confidence OTHERS have that their face will get smashed if they mess with you.
negi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13112
Joined: 27 Jul 2006 17:51
Location: Ban se dar nahin lagta , chootiyon se lagta hai .

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by negi »

shiv wrote: Have we been nuked yet?
Bas yahi hona reh gaya hai (This is but one thing yet to happen) :mrgreen: .Else you name it we have endured it . So this line of countering a pov does not work...imho of course.
BajKhedawal
BRFite
Posts: 1205
Joined: 07 Dec 2008 10:08
Location: Is it ethical? No! Is it Pakistani? Yes!

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by BajKhedawal »

shiv wrote:
BajKhedawal wrote:
Whats wrong with Khetolai, its like any other village in India if not better. It boasts of 100% literacy.
er .. I can't resist this.. there used to be a lot of cracks in Khetolai in 1998 :lol:
In a good way, no? just like a veteran lion would have battle scar’s. 8) All good things come with a little bit of sacrifice.
Last edited by BajKhedawal on 01 Sep 2009 07:51, edited 1 time in total.
shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34981
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by shiv »

narayanan wrote::mrgreen:

shiv:

In the years since 1974 (and before), desi geologists and seismologists must have done a great deal of surveying and sensing all over the Pokhran test range. Isn't there an Air Force target practice site there as well? So they must have mapped out the propagation properties pretty thoroughly, from all the explosions daily, and got high sensitivity to catch even tiny explosions. Wonder where the 1995 test preparations were done, too. It still seems very puzling that the largest test was conducted so close to the base and the village. Must be the Kalidasa complex of the designers. If it had been me designing the test I would have sunk the shaft deep for the 600kT Fizzleswara bum, so that the radioactivity got dissolved in the ground water. It's great to be able to see the wells because of the glow, when the women have to go draw water at night.
A lot depends on what sort of signal you want to send to the world and what information you are seeking.

Even in 1998 there was no compulsion to test a weaponizable device if the aim was merely to set off a huge bomb that would worry everyone else. A couple of large fission bombs would have done the trick.

The conclusions are easy to reach and they are still the same after 3000000 pages of dicussions

1) India has only fizzles
or
2) India was actually testing something to get information

...take your pick (TYP)
vera_k
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4477
Joined: 20 Nov 2006 13:45

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by vera_k »

shiv wrote:May I ask what your opinion of BARC's "claims" are
The papers published in Current Science failed to agree on any conclusion, so that is a wash. But I'm wary of accepting BARC's claims as more than one Indian source doubts them and it is not clear if anyone outside the design team is satisfied with the claimed yields. From a political perspective, the debate over the yields does not even matter once you accept that the TN was a device and not a weapon.
Last edited by vera_k on 01 Sep 2009 07:56, edited 2 times in total.
shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34981
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by shiv »

negi wrote:
shiv wrote: Have we been nuked yet?
Bas yahi hona reh gaya hai (This is but one thing yet to happen) :mrgreen: .Else you name it we have endured it . So this line of countering a pov does not work...imho of course.

It works only to show that the case is not closed and that the people who feel that deterrence is not good can still hope for a nuke on India to prove that they were right and say "See - I told ya"

Do I think India's deterrent is good?

Don't ask me. Ask "the experts"
shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34981
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by shiv »

vera_k wrote:
shiv wrote:May I ask what your opinion of BARC's "claims" are
The papers published in Current Science failed to agree on any conclusion, so that is a wash. But I'm wary of accepting BARC's claims as more than one Indian source doubts them and it is not clear if anyone outside the design team is satisfied with the claimed yields.
Yes - and the BARC are in no hurry to reassure anyone or get into a lungi dance with NPA's. Not much solace for anyone looking for any new info since 1998. Not even Santhanam's views are new.

In short nothing new is available to prove or disprove anyone's case.
shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34981
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by shiv »

Pranav wrote: The real question is what level of confidence OTHERS have that their face will get smashed if they mess with you.
You need to ask them "Aap log ko kya lagta hai?. Yeh batao ki hamara bum aap ko dara raha hai ya aapko ROTFL ho raha hai?"
Raja Ram
BRFite
Posts: 587
Joined: 30 Mar 1999 12:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by Raja Ram »

shiv ji,

Agree with you on the TYP. TYP is ultimately based on the faith one has in Lord Shiva's consort Shakti. That is why I wrote the following with regard to fizzle ya sizzle in page 11 of this thread.
:D

Raja Ram wrote:John Snow garu,

you know very well that for attaining the ultimate truth, we hindus believe that you have to take a leap of faith and not rely on gnana marga alone. For only that will take us beyond the magical veil of maya. If Santhanam garu says something we have to regard it as something close to truth. For he was close to the ultimate reality.

But what is he saying? Is he like Yudishtra when it came to ashwathama?

you sir are all knowing one, so will get the drift of what I am saying :D
Locked