Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 01 Sep 2009 17:27

geeth wrote:>>>Either that or some subtle message is being sent TO the GoI

Not subtle, but loud message being given by unkeel (to India) by making its Chini & paki cronies jump up and down by pinching their (cronies') buttocks is that:

Funnily enough it could also be a message from GoI to unkil.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 01 Sep 2009 17:35

shiv wrote:http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articl ... rtid=17991

Testing can also be conducted in dry alluvium, which is a geologically young sediment of low rigidity. An explosion in dry alluvium produces relatively small seismic waves because much of the energy that would otherwise produce seismic waves goes into closing of air-filled pore spaces, reducing the body waves about one magnitude unit. One portion of the Nevada Test Site is among the few regions in the world with areas of thick alluvium and a climate dry enough to allow the water table to be very deep. Most areas with thick alluvial deposits are fairly wet, at least seasonally, so the water Table is generally fairly shallow and the dry alluvium is generally too thin to assure containment of a test. In deserts in which the water table is deep, including the Thar (or Great Indian) Desert (Fig. (Fig.2),2Figure 2), the surficial sand and porous alluvium is generally too thin for containment of any but the smallest tests. It is, however, interesting to note that two announced Indian nuclear explosions on May 13, 1998 reportedly were conducted within a sand dune in the Thar Desert. It is not clear whether these very small tests, which according to the Indian government had yields of 0.5 and 0.3 kt, had a significant radioactive release at the surface because data from radioisotopic monitoring stations are not yet publicly available from the region.

From the above, I can summarize the following
1. An explosion in dry alluvium produces relatively small seismic waves (Possibility of masking).
2. The surficial sand and porous alluvium is generally too thin for containment of any but the smallest tests.
3. Reported presence of water table at about 200 m (Other sources).

The last 2 sub-kt shots where conducted within a sand dune at around 50 m depth. If I remember, these where no even recorded in Pakistan. So if the claimed yield was achieved, the test was masked, intentionally or otherwise. All ifs and buts because the results are disputed.

For the S1, the device was placed at around 200m depth (memory). Now if masking was planned (i.e. device planted in sandy/loose soil) it would have to be deeper or it would not be contained. Alternative, test it in hard soil/rock @ 200m, no masking.

JMT

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 01 Sep 2009 17:42

pankajs wrote: For the S1, the device was placed at around 200m depth (memory). Now if masking was planned it would have to be deeper or it would not be contained.

JMT

I don't know. It was above the water table and it nearly blew the top off and vented. If it was a fizzle and not a designed yield then it was a big risk. Either they knew it would fizzle or..

And its seismic signature is likely to have been masked so nobody (neither desis nor firangis) would have a clue.

The May 13 tests were not picked up at all. If India has tested another 50 0.5 kt nukes in that area - nobody will know.

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 01 Sep 2009 17:45

If I am not mistaken, the holy River Saraswati runs through there, underground. Bad move to put radiation into the ground water.

Also, the steam explosion would probably come out much nicer than that Short Dark Rajasthani-Earth soot jet that they got. Cheeee! What sort of pathetic excuse for a mushroom cloud is THAT! Looks like they buried an old coal-fired engine there to make the ground go up and down like a tent.

If it hadn't been a fizzle, we should have had a VERY pretty mushroom cloudand glorious sunsets for months afterwards.

Corruption!!!

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 01 Sep 2009 17:56

On the question of "reassuring the people" (apart from the highly aware elite such as we are) - I would love to be pointed to publicly available videos of underground tests made by other nations. I am guessing that this has not been necessary because every country has earlier done atmospheric tests and have pretty fireballs to demonstrate.

abhiti · Post by **abhiti** » 01 Sep 2009 18:03

shiv wrote:This actually sparks off thoughts on the nature of deterrence.

Idealism aside - a nuke on Delhi will not deter me or a lot of Indians because we are selfish creatures who have escaped the nuke. It certainly will not deter the Indian armed forces. So just where should nukes be used to actually deter anyone? There is no guarantee that the Chinese for example would greatly rue the loss of half a dozen cities.

Nukes larger than 10 kilotons for these would IMO be pointless. However it push comes to shove and we are looking at city busting - then the bigger nukes are handy although peppering a city with 5 X 50 KT nukes is unlikely to cause the receiving city much joy.

I hope Shiv could educate militaries of America, Russia, China, Britain, France, and Pakistan on his new theory of deterrance and convince them that they don't need nukes greater than 10KT!

Btw if I can only repeat the old idiotic cold war tested theory it is called Mutual Assured Destruction (not Damage but Destruction). Also a little reality check Indian politicians were deterred by Pakistan with nuke on Delhi scenario, Pak military jihadis were however was not deterred by that. Gives folks some idea why America needed MAD (destruction not damage) theory for communist Russia.

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 01 Sep 2009 18:08

Actually MAD stood for Mega Assured Dollars. Kept the $$ flowing to the weapons program, which is a heck of lot more lucrative than merely building test articles. This was in the days when Mega meant something.

abhiti · Post by **abhiti** » 01 Sep 2009 18:10

narayanan wrote:Actually MAD stood for Mega Assured Dollars. Kept the $$ flowing to the weapons program, which is a heck of lot more lucrative than merely building test articles. This was in the days when Mega meant something.

Well that can be said about any defence program including FGFA, Su30, LCA, MRCA, etc. Who says we don't have enough already!

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 01 Sep 2009 18:14

MMS appears to be as the years go by ,an American World Bank transplant upon an innocent India.Using the guise of a gentle innocent,MMS is actually the most dangerous "Indian" at the helm of national affairs,as his policies regarding India's security have in a majority of expert viewpoints ,compromised the nation's security time and time again.

When FM,he never funded the nuclear sector;when PM,he first ran nauseatingly after Bush and his backside,saying "We love you" to Dubya,when in fact it looked more like HE was in love with Bush! He then virtualy signed away India's nuclear deterrence by agreeing to humiliating terms for the N-deal,which have in recent times found out to be based upon "Boroo",(false, in Sinhalese) assurances that we would be equated with the other N-powers.Here in the agreement signed,we seem to be unable to reprocess our fuel with tech developed entirely by ourselves! The aim of the US game seems to be to scuttle our Thorium roadmap for complete nuclear fuel and tech inependence through our FBR programme and be forever dependent upon US and western fuel supplies which can be stooped at the slightest sound of a fart from our side.
In the aftermath of 26/11 too,India under MMS did F**K all to punish Pak.Pranab claimed a great "diplomatic victory",which no Indian has seen at all,and even this elusive invisible "victory" was made very visible as a catastrophic defeat at S-al-S!

With the Chinese claiming and intruding at will our Himalayan territory and building a road through POK to Pak,Pak has apart from maintaining its cross-border terrorism against India,embarked upon a masterplan to destroy our economy through fake currency,for which we have yet to respond to.Why can't we take at least diplomatic measurs against pak for all its perfidy?
The good doctor,purveyor of snake oil "Singh" brand,roars not like a rampant lion as his name would suggest,but instead mews like a geriatric tomcat that has lost his "belongings".

abhiti · Post by **abhiti** » 01 Sep 2009 18:22

Philip wrote:MMS appears to be as the years go by ,an American World Bank transplant upon an innocent India.Using the guise of a gentle innocent,MMS is actually the most dangerous "Indian" at the helm of national affairs,as his policies regarding India's security have in a majority of expert viewpoints ,compromised the nation's security time and time again.

Finally someone had the guts to say the unspoken truth. MMS has been a liability to Indian national security. Don't know why but he has been liability nonetheless.

negi · Post by **negi** » 01 Sep 2009 18:41

amit wrote:
‘Massive’, not defined explicitly, can be taken as a product of throw weight and target set that produces the promised ‘unacceptable damage’. There are three implications: one is in terms of ‘pain’ implying counter value targeting; second, is reducing the ability of the enemy to mount a counterstrike, which would be counter force; and third is a mix of both. Since in all three options ‘unacceptable damage’ is inflicted, it is worth questioning whether only ‘massive’ nuclear counter strike would cause ‘unacceptable damage’. It is well understood that even a single warhead through a counter value strike can be ‘catastrophic’.

Therefore, the term ‘massive’, in its emphasis on throw weight or numbers, is superfluous. It has
even been averred that the inclusion of ‘massive’ was likely an ‘unconsidered formulation’.
On this count there is a need for review.
I know big megaton kabooms are considered sexy and TFTA around these parts. However, not everyone thinks like that.

This line of thinking is as silly and flawed as the one's who want a Tsar Bomba sized weapon.

A generic statement like "term ‘massive’, in its emphasis on throw weight or numbers, is superfluous."
is made by the one's who have designed,built and validated a 'massive' bomb and then used this acquired expertise to build bombs of relevant throw weights and yield for a given Target in mind. To talk about as to how useless the massive bombs are without even having built one is like crying 'Grapes are sour'.

And btw it is very clever word play to have not specified as to what Massive is . A 45 kT TN weapon can be massive only when compared to a Deepawali cracker unless people wish to draw comparasions with Fat Man/Little Boy and claim mastery of Superiority in Bum design.

All in all the talk about yields and massive bombs suits those who posses and have tested such capable devices/weapons ; without even building or testing single such weapon and then preaching the rest is

.

--fixed quotes--

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 01 Sep 2009 18:42

abhiti wrote:
Finally someone had the guts to say the unspoken truth. MMS has been a liability to Indian national security. Don't know why but he has been liability nonetheless.

Not to forget Vajpayeejee, with his able assistant Advani by his side, who stated the golden words "No need to test any more" - and rode the bus to Lahore to embrace Pakistan, while India got hit by Kargil, IC 814, Kaluchak and the Parliament attack. Why let only one stalwart hog the limelight?

Only IC 814 was solved satisfactorily IIRC.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 01 Sep 2009 18:46

negi wrote:To talk about as to how useless the massive bombs are without even having built one is like crying 'Grapes are sour'.

But this thread is all about how sour the grapes are. When you have to make do with sour grapes, you have to make do with sour grapes. Talk about big bombs that we might have had is even more useless than a possible ability to hit with small bombs. Reality is tough and living in dreamland and finding scapegoats is pointless.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 01 Sep 2009 18:47

Our problem as a country is that the man at the top suddenly starts aspiring for Nobel peace prize.

negi · Post by **negi** » 01 Sep 2009 18:52

shiv wrote: But this thread is all about how sour the grapes are.

I thought that this was a

thread as I guess everyone has veered of the topic.

And my post was not about we not having a huge Bomb

; I merely pointed out the flawed logic being propagated as an ostensible reason for not having a larger bomb.

It is fine if some haj a small bomb or a mijjile but to proclaim that bigger<>better is

.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 01 Sep 2009 18:53

Lets not get into a MMS vs others on this thread (not that I wont relish it), it will provide a perfect reason to lock the thread, and end up killing debate.

I request all parties to cease and desist, unless the aim is to get the thread locked.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 01 Sep 2009 18:59

Well negi-garu it is sometimes nice to push various buttons to check out viewpoints. It is clear that the symbolism of a big bomb is an important component of "what should our deterrence appear like" to many, but not all people. Unfortunately it becomes an "X tickles Y for his need to say 'mine is bigger' and Y gets irritated with X's wimp like attitude" type of discussion.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 01 Sep 2009 19:18

On the topic of "discussion" and X tickling Y on his need to say mine is bigger let me start off on a new angle..

What can a 150 kiloton bomb do that cannot be achieved by five 20 kioton bombs?

Let me rephrase the question differently.

Does anyone have any idea whether one could use available and limited supplies of fissile material more efficiently (in terms of number of weapons, cost and maintenance and use) if one had an arsenal of bigger bombs rather than smaller ones.

What is the lower yield limit of an ideal thermonuclear weapon that meets the above requirements?

What would you want to hit Sargodha with?

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 01 Sep 2009 19:24

shiv wrote:What can a 150 kiloton bomb do that cannot be achieved by five 20 kioton bombs?

Travel longer, none of this is needed for Pakistan anyway, its about China (as testified by George Uncle)

negi · Post by **negi** » 01 Sep 2009 19:37

Shiv saar

I would just keep it simple... "First acquire the capability only then we will be able to appreciate the complete aray of options wrt Yield and size for fissile material utilisation;throwweight, design efficiency yada yada "

The yield of a bomb with which Massa may hit TSp might be same as what India will what might differ is the warhead SIZE to achieve same YIELD.
This might not be a concern for smaller yields but we don't know about the larger yields over longer distances.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 01 Sep 2009 19:44

Pak's 'India specific' nuke arsenal exposed

Times Now has accessed a report prepared by top US nuclear scientists that suggests that Pakistan is busily enhancing its nuclear weapons and productions capabilities across the board.

Moreover, if this report is true Pakistan is clearly going beyond the moratorium existing as an unwritten code of conduct in S Asia to halt the arms race. “The sheer aggressiveness of its activities is disturbing,” remarks in-house defence expert Maroof Raza.

What season is this? First KS thing and then the missile mod thing and then this.

According to the report, Pakistan has decided to supplement and replace its heavy uranium-based weapons with smaller, lighter, plutonium-based designs that could be delivered further by ballistic missiles than its current war heads.

Shouldn't we question the origin of the plutonium-based designs, shout Proliferation from the roof top and go for the dhamaka-shamaka?

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 01 Sep 2009 19:52

Finally someone had the guts to say the unspoken truth. MMS has been a liability to Indian national security. Don't know why but he has been liability nonetheless.

Others too have to collaborate in some ways to allow him to give everything away. What can one expect when the country is happy with Ambies for decades? There is multi-billion dollar Bollywood to sooth the body too. So why worry?

Kanson · Post by **Kanson** » 01 Sep 2009 19:53

amit wrote: I'm sorry but Homi Sethna's swipe at Abdul Kalam comes more personal than professional. As far as I recall, Kalam was the Chief Scientific Adviser in 1998, thus effectively to top scientist in the country then. Surely he didn't become that without a reason.

And this:

By being a president he appeared to wear the stature. He relied on atomic energy to gain additional stature," said Sethna about Kalam.

is in bad taste to say the least.

Just as BC's claim that Kalam couldn't deliver on the missiles.

And if we go by this point:

"What did he (Kalam) know about extracting, making explosive grade? He didn't know a thing.
Then one could legitimately ask (though please note I'm not casting aspersions and questioning) what does KS know about how to design an atomic bomb?

Incidentally Sanatanan ji your comment is spot on. KS has only said that India should not foreclose the option to test by signing CTBT before proofing. (He has not talked anywhere about the need for a POKIII that I've seen.) The CTBT part is something which I think everyone can agree to. And I personally think that's precisely the reason he spoke out now using Western data to say the test fizzled.

Do note that a person who thinks on the one hand thinks the TN was fizzle and we need POKIII and on the other makes a statement after the nuclear deal that India's security is safe would otherwise come out as a .... person. Hence IMHO, the whole idea was a warning shot about CTBT.

Your angst is right, but i ask you not to read too much into this. Its actually an inter-departmental fight and they are using Kalam now in their fight. Homi Sethna and PKI belongs to the same discipline (Chemistry) and Raja Ramanna, RC belongs to another discipline (Physics). If you trace back the genesis for this internal fight starts earlier to POK-I. During POK-I HS backed PKI and RR and RC shared same views.

Why Kalam ? Becoz Kalam supported RC. So it is. Now, if Kalam cant talk abt Nuclear matters, ofcourse he is not a nuclear scientist, then BK/BC et al cannot even utter the word "nuclear" in their talk. You know Kalam started the Prithivi program and you know what is the payload of it. From that time to establishing the N command, he has played a role in all these thing.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 01 Sep 2009 19:56

Sanku wrote:
shiv wrote:What can a 150 kiloton bomb do that cannot be achieved by five 20 kioton bombs?
Travel longer, none of this is needed for Pakistan anyway, its about China (as testified by George Uncle)

Till TSP acquires (or already has) boosted fission weapons.

Raja Ram · Post by **Raja Ram** » 01 Sep 2009 19:57

One positive way of looking at the US report that has been uncovered by Times Now about Pakistani capability to improve its nuclear weapons design is to see it as a signal. Once again, how convenient it is that a report, ostensibly written by top nuclear scientist of the US is quoted to show changes in threat levels in the neighbourhood. How did they get access to this report? Times Now has contacts in the US deep inside the nuclear establlishment?

Chinese are intruding Indian airspace, tests are being done by proxy, US reports are stating that pakistani illegally modified missiles, roads are being built in POK by china, top scientist close the establishment that tested Indian nukes stating that we need further tests and we should not sign agreements in haste. All very convenient onlee.

Hmmmm,....

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 01 Sep 2009 20:00

Raja Ram saar, with the kind of listing you have done, it is the perfect opportunity (we can certainly add some mirch/masala via news media) and go for another round. What say?

Start a little scare and claim constitutional obligation to the people of India.

kenop · Post by **kenop** » 01 Sep 2009 20:03

PKI was on CNN-IBN some time ago. He was saying that it is likely that the tests were carried out in a hurry. A new Government had just taken charge, pehaps they got intelligence reports of Pakistani plans to test towards the end of May. Hence, they gave a go ahead (it had to be done before Pakistan carried out its tests). He talked about shaft which needs to be sealed with concrete. There is some time (he said a week) for it to be set and be ready (I did not understand if an unsealed/poorly sealed shaft would cause a fizzzle). Maybe the sealing part is true and it proves the haste he referred to,

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 01 Sep 2009 20:09

Too many monsters hide under our beds. We need America to hold our fingers and take us across the street, that is once we gather the courage to go out. Our teeth have developed cracks. Our trembling is producing radio waves. All our dhotis have gone yellow, and the detergent powder doesn't work.

All this fear of sanctions, Obama, PRC is so Ah-thoooo!

If Indians had so much courage as Indians have mind, we would have been somewhere else ...Solve the problem in the mind, everything else solves itself.

kenop · Post by **kenop** » 01 Sep 2009 20:13

Raja Ram wrote:Times Now has contacts in the US deep inside the nuclear establlishment?

Other channels too are talking about the same report.
I do not have much clue about the supply-chain in this context.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 01 Sep 2009 20:16

Yes I forgot, November and the pat on the back for a job well done, for having shown restraint against extreme provocation, etc.

Neela · Post by **Neela** » 01 Sep 2009 20:23

Kanson wrote:
Why Kalam ? Becoz Kalam supported RC. So it is. Now, if Kalam cant talk abt Nuclear matters, ofcourse he is not a nuclear scientist, then BK/BC et al cannot even utter the word "nuclear" in their talk. You know Kalam started the Prithivi program and you know what is the payload of it. From that time to establishing the N command, he has played a role in all these thing.

You are mixing it all up. Kalam is NOT a nuclear scientist...he cannot comment on the yield. Period.
That IS the standard in the scientific world.
He may understand it. He may have his opinions. But he cannot exploit his public image, which I think he clearly DID.

BC/BK RELY on someone to provide inputs and base their opinions on that. Would BC/BK rely on Kalam or someone with a background in Nuclear science?

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 01 Sep 2009 20:25

And nuclear scientists CAN comment about the yield from personal knowledge of Classified data? Why? Are they above the law of the nation since they are experts on the laws of physics?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 01 Sep 2009 20:27

kenop wrote: (I did not understand if an unsealed/poorly sealed shaft would cause a fizzzle).

Was it a fizzle?

Neela · Post by **Neela** » 01 Sep 2009 20:32

narayanan wrote:And nuclear scientists CAN comment about the yield from personal knowledge of Classified data? Why? Are they above the law of the nation since they are experts on the laws of physics?

N3 Sir,
I refuse to be drawn into your debate regarding OSA. My point was something more specific and is quite lucid. I will leave at that and take the gallery and watch the posts. I have learnt from reading other threads and I will stay clear of you.
No disrespect intended.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 01 Sep 2009 20:33

Raja Ram wrote:One positive way of looking at the US report that has been uncovered by Times Now about Pakistani capability to improve its nuclear weapons design is to see it as a signal. Once again, how convenient it is that a report, ostensibly written by top nuclear scientist of the US is quoted to show changes in threat levels in the neighbourhood. How did they get access to this report? Times Now has contacts in the US deep inside the nuclear establlishment?

Chinese are intruding Indian airspace, tests are being done by proxy, US reports are stating that pakistani illegally modified missiles, roads are being built in POK by china, top scientist close the establishment that tested Indian nukes stating that we need further tests and we should not sign agreements in haste. All very convenient onlee.

Hmmmm,....

Hmm indeed.

In fact these reports are appearing in the Indian media. The media are generally dubbed unpatriotic, treasonous and under control of firangis.

But when you look at the spate of reports that show India under threat but with its own deterrent being questioned and think who this would suit the most - my guess is that it suits India more than anyone else.

Every passing day seems to throw up some fascinating report that leads towards the conclusion that India needs to test and not be pressured into doing anything nice to Pakistan or even sign the shittybitty.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Sep 2009 20:35

kenop wrote:PKI was on CNN-IBN some time ago. He was saying that it is likely that the tests were carried out in a hurry. A new Government had just taken charge, perhaps they got intelligence reports of Pakistani plans to test towards the end of May. Hence, they gave a go ahead (it had to be done before Pakistan carried out its tests). He talked about shaft which needs to be sealed with concrete. There is some time (he said a week) for it to be set and be ready (I did not understand if an unsealed/poorly sealed shaft would cause a fizzzle). Maybe the sealing part is true and it proves the haste he referred to,

In late May 1998, there was reporter in TOI, Dinesh Kumar who alluded to a theory that GOI got wind of the follow-on to TSP's Ghauri test of April 6th was a nuke test by May. And PRC being the UNSC chairman of the period would introduce a resolution condemning the TSP test and express regrets and ban all other follow-on tests. And US would go along as a Non Proliferation dogma. It was to avoid this strategic lock-out that the tests were conducted. And full credit to RAW for that. Nothing political about all this.
No follow-up after this.

BTW RajaRam, MKN was saying such thinking is NPA way of exerting pressure on India to sign the CTBT to quell internal pressure to proof.

My take is all these are happeneing but are not to pressure the GOI to justify or conduct the tests. They are facts to be kept in mind.
----
Poorly sealed shaft will cause venting. Not a fizzle. BTW, there were U-2 flights in August 1998 to try to pick up any debris. Nada. Zilch. On the other hand it picked up stuff from Chagai which led the US to "lose" the sample for fear of exposing the Chinese Pu proliferation. TSP tested on may 30th a Pu bomb and its Pu reactor was commissoned or went critical in November 1998. A full six months after the tests.

Perkovish lobfuscated that the sample was from Pokhran.

kenop · Post by **kenop** » 01 Sep 2009 20:46

shiv wrote:
kenop wrote: (I did not understand if an unsealed/poorly sealed shaft would cause a fizzzle).
Was it a fizzle?

No idea.

Raja Ram · Post by **Raja Ram** » 01 Sep 2009 20:47

BTW gentle readers, regarding whether Kalam is qualified to comment on these matters. He was part of the core team in the Policy Group as Scientific Advisor to the PM. As much as Santhanam or RC, he too has a right to say what he had to say.

Now whether to believe what he says (or has left unsaid once again) is purely a matter of opinion. Heck, if aam admi like me can comment why can't he? It is a free country!

I can say I dont trust MMS, but who cares? If someone who has widespread credibility says that then it matters.

ramana,
MKN states what he has to state. He is one of the partners to the fiasco in S-e-S. Let us monitor the action on the ground and the signals emerging a bit more before coming to a conclusion if Santhanam spoke at the behest of GOI or was it a desperate act to stop GOI from signing up stuff that it should not.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 01 Sep 2009 20:47

Regarding the story of India getting wind of Pakistani tests and testing in a hurry - I find it difficult to reconcile one point Why did India need to test in a hurry before they did? We would have had all the time in the world to watch them get sanctioned while diligently preparing for tests.

The "hurry" may have been Vajpayee and his earlier collapsed government perhaps?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 01 Sep 2009 20:49

<Using my Conspiracy Hat>

Can all these happenings and media reports be at the instance of RRW program supporters?