Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 02 Sep 2009 01:35

Ramana, the way for India to get the room to test is in my view to get its own house in order first. Tackle human development assiduously for 5 years, pay off the foreign debt, bring all arms deals with foreign companies to conclusions including spares supplies and then test away.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Sep 2009 01:38

You are not going to be given 5 years. May not be even 2 years. And setting house in order requires maturity and not misuse power to browbeat opponents and to foresight to heal divisions.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 02 Sep 2009 01:40

Sanjay wrote:Ramana, the way for India to get the room to test is in my view to get its own house in order first. Tackle human development assiduously for 5 years, pay off the foreign debt, bring all arms deals with foreign companies to conclusions including spares supplies and then test away.

You advise being independent of strategic linkages -- but then we have the Nuclear deal. As close a tango as there could be. With all the poison pills against testing too boot.

And then we have MRCA which may go to US even.

How is this space ever going to come on those terms -- this would appear to be a lost case based on those metrics.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Sep 2009 01:42

One of the contenders can be fixed in inappropriate possession of data. And the other who knows.
Ombaba doesn't want to implemnt the deal even with the state of economy. And even if it happens all the reactor vessels are made by Japan. So even the spirit is weak too.

So meantime tie up with those who are willing and not restrained by Cold War mentality.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 02 Sep 2009 01:57

Not necessarily. The human development issue is one within India's own power and it is not so impossible to achieve.

The arms deals - insist on rigid schedules and bulk buy spares where possible. Again - tie-up with the willing.

The armed forces may also have to compromise a bit and buy local despite a slightly better product abroad.

As far as the nuclear deal is concerned, the current admin doesn't care for it so as far as India and the US are concerned the US has opted out of doing anything.

Testing is feasible but the groundwork has to be prepared economically, militarily and politically.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Sep 2009 02:07

Of all the NSG countries the one that got shafted was Canada. The only good engineering product (PHWR) they had was embargoed and the mfg base was lost/reduced, so that only US companies dominate the reactor scene now. And even these have been acquired by Japan.

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 02 Sep 2009 02:11

http://www.rediff.com/news/1998/nov/24pokh.htm

May 11, the first blasts, the first cracks. May 13, more blasts, and a couple of homes collapse, though no one is hurt.

Loyalty, I learn, both from him and from people I talk to in Pokhran proper, has come at a price. Narsing Rao points to a corner of his hut, with an irregular crack running down the length of the granite wall. Later, as I walk around the village, I notice similar cracks on almost all the walls. Mementoes, I'm told, of the May blasts.

Cracking granite takes some doing. But then, a series of nuclear blasts is some force, when you are just 4 km from the epicentre. And the real damage, I am told, is the cracks in their water tanks.

http://news.boloji.com/2008/05/20682.htm

As a result of the May 11 blast, most houses here developed large cracks in their walls. After a survey, the government offered a total compensation of Rs.400,000 for all 400 houses.

He remembers the day clearly.

"The army people came at about nine in the morning and asked people living in pucca houses to move out. We knew that something was happening; helicopters were also flying overhead."

http://activistmagazine.com/index.php?o ... Itemid=146

the villagers were made to stand in the hot sun for seven hours at 45 degrees celsius to prevent people from dying due to house collapse. To their dismay, the villagers found their houses and water tanks damaged on account of the blast.

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 02 Sep 2009 02:16

ramana wrote:Of all the NSG countries the one that got shafted was Canada.

They are now being told to get out of the medical isotopes business

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 02 Sep 2009 02:18

Narayanan Ji: to throw my hat into the crowded ring.

You raise a valid data point that has to be explained: cracks in some houses in the Khetolai village. There could be several explanations for this. A few below:

a) Yield was larger than expected (your theory, I think)

b) Impact on buildings was not properly estimated

c) Impact was estimated correctly but was considered "ok". Nothing alarming enough to evacuate village other than asking people to stay outdoors during the blast. And compensating people later if their houses cracked or were flattened.

In option (b), there could have been incorrect estimates on the quake magnitude and/or its impact on the different kinds of houses.

So, just based on the fact that there were cracks found, we cannot conclude that the yield was larger. It could have been the expected yield or even a smaller yield. Damage estimation is not an exact science. Where I live (Houston), there are damage estimates on Category 3 versus Category 4 hurricanes. But these are only guidelines and the actual damage could be more or less.

Anyhow, intrigued by this topic , I brought out the calculator and did some estimations based on Googleswara. A couple of equations were used (gurus can feel free to correct these and put me in my place):

a) Richter scale versus nuke yield (from http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/0 ... sKang.html)

Mb = 4.262+0.973 logY

Where, Mb: Richter seismic scale, and
Y: yield of nuclear explosion

So, a 45kT TN device will create a 5.8706 Richter scale quake (correlates decently with the measured values)

As Santy says, lets assume that the yield was only 60% of what it was designed for (75kT)

A 75 kT device would have created a 6.0864 scale quake

Now lets plug these numbers in the following formula

b) Richter scale versus damage (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richter_magnitude_scale)

The energy release of an earthquake, which closely correlates to its destructive power, scales with the 3⁄2 power of the shaking amplitude. Thus, a difference in magnitude of 1.0 is equivalent to a factor of 31.6 ( = (10^1.0)^(3 / 2)) in the energy released; a difference of magnitude of 2.0 is equivalent to a factor of 1000 ( = (10^2.0)^(3 / 2) ) in the energy released. [1]

Difference in magnitudes of quakes created = 0.2158

Underground Energy of 75kT:45kT = 2.1 (we can assume all energy is expended underground, like an earthquake)

So, the destructive power of a 75kT underground explosion is 2 times that of the 45kT one. I dont know how this dissipates over distance. But the ratio is too close to call. Whether a 75kT device (if that was indeed the design value) would have flattened some of the houses - maybe, but cant say for sure.

***Added later*****
Just realized that the 2 equations can be combined into a rather simple one (with the log and the power 10 neatly cancelling each other)

Ratio of seismic destructive power of yield y1 to yield y2 = (y1/y2)^1.46

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Sep 2009 02:23

A request to members. Stop reporting others. It just increases the admin load. Especially if its about one of them!

Lets agree we all have views and no one can score points on each other. By end of 40 pages everyone knows where they are coming from and few will change.

Thanks, ramana

------------------

Prem Kumar, Anil Kakodkar in an interview with Economic Times said the site could withstand 60kt for fear of damage to the nearby civilian structures. But all this was before the 'estimates'.

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 02 Sep 2009 02:29

Sanjay wrote:Ramana, why do we think that any design team was going to give intimate details of each shaft and the geology ?

In a sense the West has held India to a "proof" standard that it has not held itself or even China to. Notice how many Chinese tests were "between 1-20KT" and this after Lop Nor was well calibrated ?

I am not saying more tests aren't needed - of course I'd like to see more but let's cut the emotions out and look at what has been achieved, what simulations can bridge and what more needs to be proved dynamically.

We at BRF aren't experts either and if only nuclear physicists are allowed in this debate then I think Karnad, Chellaney Bhaskar and even Menon and Subramanyam are to be excluded.

I come back to the central question - if there are no TN weapons in the arsenal what has the deterrent (which does exist) been built around ? Why 500-1500kg payloads ? It can't be for a 15KT fission warhead. Something larger - and reliably larger (because the military is clear on issues of reliability) - is being used.

Sanjay: I think you know but just a friendly reminder. The 500-1500kg payload for Agni-1 and 2 is a convenient cover for SRDE foriegn policy of least resistance to be in the core of countries that make a difference. From foiegn policy this is most desirable. For it give peace to friends, and a hidden "long stick" for those who may want to be not friends.

As for MIRV capable vehicles in the 2m diameter class, that is a further fudge to account for more warheads. In fcat dont be surprised if the 2,490 kg figure is touted again.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 02 Sep 2009 02:31

Gerard wrote:http://www.rediff.com/news/1998/nov/24pokh.htm

May 11, the first blasts, the first cracks. May 13, more blasts, and a couple of homes collapse, though no one is hurt.

Gerard Ji I hope you realize what you are quoting for proof

The Rediff Special/Prem Panicker
The Price of Loyalty

By Prem Panicker and an article titled price of loyalty.

Prem Panicker is a well known Indian cricket journalist. He was one of a handful of journalists who helped found Rediff.com (Nasdaq: REDF). He was based in New York, as editor of India Abroad, the largest Indian-American newspaper, after that paper was bought by Rediff. He is back in Mumbai, India.

And neither of your two articles talk about massive damage. One article says a few cracks and some huts collapsed. The second article talks about most houses developing cracks.

Both the articles talk about compensation should be more.

This is the massive damage? From reputable sources?

Sounds like another Baldev Raj and KS is a biochemist episode to me.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 02 Sep 2009 02:32

ramana wrote:One of the contenders can be fixed in inappropriate possession of data. And the other who knows.
Ombaba doesn't want to implemnt the deal even with the state of economy. And even if it happens all the reactor vessels are made by Japan. So even the spirit is weak too.

So meantime tie up with those who are willing and not restrained by Cold War mentality.

ramana: I accuse you of making fun of a respected government official by deliberately misspelling his name!

(I know he is not Indian, but loved it.)

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 02 Sep 2009 02:34

Gerard Ji I hope you realize what you are quoting for proof

I'm just searching for eye-witness reports from the period. That those reports are biased is a given. All the anti-nuclear activists were around looking for nosebleeds etc. I'm sure ten year old cracks in the wall became "nuclear blast damage" overnight. With enough reports however we can get some idea of the damage.

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 02 Sep 2009 02:34

What you are saying is obvious you that the damage expected to Khetolai full yield was expected to be minimal, however since Khetolai was damaged it had to be bigger blast. Right?

Not at all.

First, there WAS damage at Khetolai. The pictures were posted on BRF, but it was 10 years ago and not likely that we will easily find them again. Many people here remember the pictures and interviews with homeowners, and the damage consisted of major brick-separation cracks and wall separation (walls leaning out). These are typical of what happens when there is significant settlement of earth under the walls, as opposed to mere passage of a shock wave in air or ground.

Secondly, what I have said, now maybe 12 times, is that there WAS damage, at whatever yield was obtained from the blasts. YOU guys, not I, have been jumping around screaming that the yield was only 60% of design yield or less.

So my question to you is to estimate the damage that would have resulted, if the yield had indeed been 100% of the design value. For example,

If you say S1 yield was only 60% of design, then
Take the yield that actually resulted, and divide it by 0.6 to get the design yield value. Then tell me that the village would have been safe with the level of earth movement and shock wave characteristic of that value, given what happened with only 0.6 of that value. Clearly, the houses will have fallen down.

The question whether there was damage reported from the military base is not a valid one. That is a military base, they are not going to go out and announce damage resulting from a military operation. Also, the structures shown in the Google image seem to be aluminum shelters, etc., more than concrete buildings. You cannot see what damage was caused there.

But again, there is no way that the test design would have been approved if it was LIKELY to cause any damage. They would have decided to move the shaft much further away into the desert.

Some here claim that destroying a Rajasthani village would be a no-brainer for the Indian Army, in the "larger interest" of the nation, since the nation could afford to build a shining replacement for the village!! Besides showing a lot about that postor's level of sensitivity and callous disregard for the people of Rajasthan, it also shows fundamental ignorance of engineering design practice, not to mention common sense. Engineers don't design tests assuming that it's fine to damage the neighbors' homes. Their bosses don't approve designs where the safety issue is so carelessly ignored.

By the way, you are in complete agreement with the line of argument advanced by said postor, so it does not really matter what PHYSICAL distance you may be from Khetolai, the level of callousness towards the people there is quite evident, and is even less excusable than if you were located 1000 miles away. So I was just being kind in assuming that you were PHYSICALLY distant from there. My mistake. No such kindness was warranted.

So - you are still left with the same problem. You cannot explain why Khetolai was not completely evacuated, and you cannot explain why there was damage, if the S1 fizzled.

So the entire ranting and raving here about the "fizzle" is seen to be without basis, and politically motivated, just another excuse to sling mud at the leaders of the nation. And understandably, you guys get very angry when the simple truth stares you in the face and you cannot answer it. Resorting to abusive tactics, as you see, does not work. Your position is untenable.

I don't know if the S1 yield was 43kT or 4.3KT (neither do you or anyone else who says anything in the open about it), but I conclude that it was what it was designed to be. No less.

Prem: I am NOT saying that the yield was (much) MORE than designed. I am saying that it was clearly not LESS than designed, so the 60% etc. claim is untenable.
You are right, if the yield had been 1/0.6 of what occurred, there would have been massive damage. A lot of DRDO and BARC engineers would be behind bars for criminal negligence.

They knew that, so they would have erred on the side of caution. So the claim that it was a fizzled test that still caused damage, is untenable.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Sep 2009 02:35

U crazy. I dont want search engines to get me. I follow N^3 suggestion.

Besides want it Newsweek that said "we are all Hindus" now? Lets see if multiculturalism takes a front seat this Diwali.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 02 Sep 2009 02:36

ramana wrote:A request to members. Stop reporting others. It just increases the admin load. Especially if its about one of them!

Can I request Admin(s) to stop issuing warnings to members when countered? I would also request that my warning be taken back as it is the conflict of interest issue.

<Humbly bowing emoticon>

{This is a blatant, damn lie - no warning was issued because Sanku "countered" anything. The problem is that instead of COUNTERING with logic or facts, Sanku's style has been to sneer and flamebait, very clearly, by his own immediate claim, hiding behind his belief that he could be bloody hostile to me and claim victimhood because I am an admin.

The warning was issued for blatant, gratuitous abuse and sneering hostility.

Clearly no civilized debate is possible with postors like Sanku who have never accepted the notion of "honest debate", and instead show utter hostility when their illogic is exposed.

He has been clearly warned to quit whining about it too, multiple times.

IIRC, Sanku has been banned before (nothing to do with me), and was allowed to return after grovelling and whining and snivelling and begging promising that he had grown up and changed his behavior. Clearly that was not particularly honest either. Look at other postors' experience with him. }

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 02 Sep 2009 02:37

Oh! Now it gets better and better.

Some huts COLLAPSED

you call this major damage?

I don't think the issue - and the reason for disagreement - needs further explanation than that.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 02 Sep 2009 02:38

What I would like to hear from the thinkers is a realistic assessment of problems India could face, should India test now.

Somehow everybody seem to suggest that there would be immediate sanctions and these would stiffle Indian economy and break its back, however there is little effort in justifying those predictions.

Which countries would push for sanctions?
What kind of sanctions, would each country push for?
Would there be alternative thinking within these countries?
Can India find influential groups in that country to lobby against sanctions?
Are the governments in these countries in a position to concentrate on imposing sanctions, or they distracted by domestic problems?
Are these countries in a position to hurt India?
Can India make some deal with these countries?
Can India make a suitable case fot having tested for example on security grounds?
Can India withstand whatever kind of sanctions are imposed, if any are imposed at all, and how long?
How would these sanctions benefit or harm other countries?
How long would the sanctions be in place?
How would India's partners in the world react to calls for sanctions?
How can we prepare for such sanctions?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Sep 2009 02:39

sanku, You just did what I asked people not to do. Any way no more of this or that.
----------
RajeshA, Start a new thread in the Strat forum. I think this one is reaching its half life!

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 02 Sep 2009 02:43

Arun_S wrote:
One can more realistically say that Kalam knows ziltch about strategic policy (he admits that in WOP) and BK/BC/UB/KSubramanyam are the masters.

The faster everyone understands this basic 101 of nuclear/defense policy the better off we all will be. Nations with mature nuclear policies do not let their "scientists" and/or the "engineering" teams to decide deterrence policy. That quotient is usually led by people, who have spent many years in the defense matters, outside special analysts and the political leadership.

The scientists/weapon designers provide a certain capability based on which the nuclear and/or defense policies may be built around and in turn the scientist get requirements from users. It is a classic provider/user relationship. The user knows their needs best. Kalamiji was on the provider side.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 02 Sep 2009 02:45

narayanan wrote:
What you are saying is obvious you that the damage expected to Khetolai full yield was expected to be minimal, however since Khetolai was damaged it had to be bigger blast. Right?
Not at all.

First, there WAS damage at Khetolai.

They knew that, so they would have erred on the side of caution. So the claim that it was a fizzled test that still caused damage, is untenable.

Uh I was there at Khetolai in person after a few months and I saw no such fantastic picture. Gerard has posted two articles describing some cracks, minor ones. This is all you will find. There is nothing more. The base which was closer was not even touched.

Secondly it does not matter what you think -- you have to show that the 100% yield would have indeed flattened the village.

Because you think so and thus it must be true is not an argument for me.

The rest of the rant is based on your telling me what I think. Thanks but I think, I can tell anyone myself what I think and none of what you say is remotely true.

If you can not understand the difference between not being able to predict the "damage" and not caring for it. Hats off to you.

I call your entire claim of 100% would have flattened Khetolai a total canard something you have made up conveniently without any logical basis what so ever.

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 02 Sep 2009 02:47

ShauryaT wrote:Nations with mature nuclear policies do not let their "scientists" and/or the "engineering" teams to decide deterrence policy.

You recall my question?

Where is India's Robert McNamara? Its Curtis LeMay?

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 02 Sep 2009 02:48

narayanan wrote:Oh! Now it gets better and better.

Some huts COLLAPSED

you call this major damage?

I don't think the issue - and the reason for disagreement - needs further explanation than that.

Naryanan, come and spend some time in India, you will find out how many huts collapse by building of a road in the vicinity and just how much people (including GoI and all) care.

You need a reality check -- you have been living in your cave complex far too long.

{Weren't you just warned for abusive behavior? There you go with gratuitous personal abuse again! }

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 02 Sep 2009 02:49

Gerard wrote:
ShauryaT wrote:Nations with mature nuclear policies do not let their "scientists" and/or the "engineering" teams to decide deterrence policy.
You recall my question?

Where is India's Robert McNamara? Its Curtis LeMay?

Hope the highlight answers it.

But, seriously, another area, where our current model of governance has failed us. But, that will be OT.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Sep 2009 02:49

I replied both were rolled into one Gen Sundarji and he is no more.

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 02 Sep 2009 02:51

Secondly it does not matter what you think -- you have to show that the 100% yield would have indeed flattened the village.

Sure, it does not matter what I think, but why should I have to show anything of the sort? In engineering, is it an excuse to say: "Well... the house didn't FLATTEN.. so it's fine"? Can you show where in Indian engineering, this is the standard for safe design?

You have to show that 100% yield would have flattened the village

!!!!! What a fantastic argument!

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 02 Sep 2009 02:52

OK, Ramana, anyone else, see why it is impossible to conduct any reasonable discussion with Sanku around:
Sanku sneers instead of arguing:

You need a reality check -- you have been living in your cave complex far too long.

Why did I deserve that for asking about elementary engineering design safety considerations, and why should I tolerate that nonsense? Why is it relevant to this discussion where I live? I don't think I am getting any BRF postor or his momma to pay the rent on whatever I am living in.

So this guy is old enough to be allowed to post on the internet, and he seems to have memorized any loopholes to avoid getting banned (again), but clearly his level of honesty and hate-filled demeanor are incompatible with reasonable discussion.

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 02 Sep 2009 02:56

One of the Pandavs (even if its Sahdev and not Bhim or Arjun) has come out and said, 'Draupadi is actually a dude dressed like a lady'..

Yet people want to continue to believe that Draupadi is a lady, because of the shape of her eyebrows, or how she ate like a lady or how she walked like a lady..

Guys, its Sahdev (Santhanam) who is talking, his eyes have seen what yours never will, get rid of your cognitive dissonance and start seeing reality.

JaiHo!
PS: No disrespect to Santhanam, perhaps he was Yudhistra and not Sahdev, or Bhim.. I dont know.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 02 Sep 2009 02:58

ramana wrote:I replied both were rolled into one Gen Sundarji and he is no more.

It is that kind of person as a retired Army Chief who should have been NSA at the time of the 1998 tests.

But in fairness, one does not know the pressures especially time pressures that they were subject to given how quickly the tests were conducted after the new government was sworn in.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Sep 2009 03:03

All right. I am imposing a cessation of hostilities agreement on both of you. For three days neither of you (Sanku and N^3) will reply to each other. Not even a smiley. Lets see how that works.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 02 Sep 2009 03:04

deleted after ramana's post

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 02 Sep 2009 03:04

-- post deleted after Ramana's post ---

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Sep 2009 03:05

Thanks, ramana

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 02 Sep 2009 03:05

ramana wrote:I replied both were rolled into one Gen Sundarji and he is no more.

We need designed institutions fit for such purpose. The NSAB was one such possibility. Do not think it has been institutionalized.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 02 Sep 2009 03:08

Self Del.

Masaru · Post by **Masaru** » 02 Sep 2009 03:12

Sorry if already posted, but the signs look ominous of late.

Pakistan rapidly ramping up India-specific nuclear arsenal

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Sep 2009 03:14

Its there but as an advisory body it exists to keep the Western think tanks think they are like us onlee.

To be honest India does have its McNamaras, LeMays, and Brezinskis. They never will get a History Channel moment for we don't own our media. And maybe thats for the better for they do their work quietly and effectively. Sometimes in the din its lost. One point of ref. India never got into its Cuban Missile crisis ever, even though the area was awash with known and unknown proliferators.

In 1993 clintonsaheb was issuing demarches left and right and rejecting PVNR's visit dates. Usually thats a bad sign. There was a huddle to figure out what gives? A junior babu suggested lets give them a couple of alternate dates and see how they respond. If they reject both, we know its enemy action. If not we can move ahead. It so happened Monihyan understood the sematics and advised clinton to agree at the first convienent date. And rest is history. There are hazar babus doing their work silently for all the glamorous ones.

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 02 Sep 2009 03:15

From "Rediff Special"

The Rediff Special/Prem Panicker
The Price of Loyalty
.......

The nuclear test site at Pokhran -- or rather, a bird's eye view of it, from my vantage point -- reminds you of that assessment. For, considering that I am standing about a kilometre and a half from the epicentre of the nuclear blasts of May 11 and 13, ... the isolated spot on the edge of the Thar desert ... the vista is curiously featureless.

I'm atop a large, grassy knoll. At my feet, the ground dips into an undulating plain, dotted with clumps of hardy desert bush..... . And on the horizon are a small cluster of buildings dominated by a domed construction in golden granite that is the nuclear test facility.

Around me are strewn the detritus of an army outpost now abandoned. Charred black planks on the ground, demarcating the floor of the house. A mound of brittle coal and ash -- the remnants of thatched roofs that have been torched. A few empty liquor bottles -- rum and gin -- flung carelessly under a nearby bush.

The hut -- and others like it -- once marked the periphery of the test site. My guide, Budh Ram Bishnoi, tells me that mid-April through July, even the locals weren't permitted to graze their goats there. Boys -- Budh Ram and his friends, my companions at the time, are all in their middle to late teens -- being boys, a few apparently did defy the proscription, especially after the blasts provoked their curiosity. For their pains, they were beaten up by the army personnel guarding the periphery. "Bahut pitai hui (we were thrashed)," Budh Ram grins, like it is all a big joke.

Budh Ram is a native of Khetolai, closest of four villages scattered around the nuclear test facility. It was his idea, bringing me to this knoll. When I landed up in the village, he went, "Aap visphot jahaan hua udhar jayenge (Would you like to visit the test site)?"

Earlier, I'd been turned back -- rather rudely --by an army type, part of an outpost securing the entrance to the road that services the nuclear installation. No visitors, I was curtly told, my press pass counting for zilch.

So I took up Budh Ram on his offer. He and half a dozen of his friends piled unnecessarily into my hired jeep and directed the driver out of the village, along the trackless semi-desert for a further two kilometres, till we got to the knoll. "Do you have a press pass?" Budh Ram, wise to the ways of the media, asked. "If there are soldiers, you will have to show it."

As it turned out, there were no soldiers. The camps on the periphery of the site have been abandoned -- indication, perhaps, that nothing major is happening at the facility.

We drive back to Khetolai. To the home of village elder Narsing Rao Bishnoi. Khetolai, incidentally, is completely dominated by the Bishnois, with just a few goat-herding Magawals making up the rest of an estimated population of 4,000.

And it is a Congress village.

I've seen what, in political parlance, is a 'stronghold' before, but I've never seen one like this, or its neighbour, Dholia. In areas where one party commands support, the locals are only too willing to tell you, at times heatedly, why their party is the best, the most deserving of their support. If you bring up negatives, they are equally willing to argue the toss.

Not here. Not in Khetolai. "Hum Congress ke hain, azaadi se lekar ab tak,' says Narsing Rao.

I try probing. Why? What has the Congress done for you? Why do you support that party?

"Hum Congress ke hain!" It is a wall as impenetrable as the granite wall of his home. Theirs, apparently, not to reason why. Theirs, merely, to vote for the 'hand'.

"We would have 100 per cent polling, but the government won't accept that, so we take care to have only 95 per cent," the venerable elder says simply, while a clutch of locals nod and murmur assent.

Loyalty, I learn, both from him and from people I talk to in Pokhran proper, has come at a price. Narsing Rao points to a corner of his hut, with an irregular crack running down the length of the granite wall. Later, as I walk around the village, I notice similar cracks on almost all the walls. Mementoes, I'm told, of the May blasts.

Cracking granite takes some doing. But then, a series of nuclear blasts is some force, when you are just 4 km from the epicentre. And the real damage, I am told, is the cracks in their water tanks.

In Khetolai, there are granite tanks in each home to hold precious drinking water, bought at Rs 300 per 3,000 litres, from tankers that come to the village thrice a week. That, by quick calculation, makes for less than a litre of potable water per head -- and now, even that is jeopardised.

Didn't the government repair the damage, I wonder. That opens the floodgates -- the locals all talk at once, till Narsing Rao looks angrily at them, the mien of village elder very much in evidence. He then tells the tale:

May 11, the first blasts, the first cracks. May 13, more blasts, and a couple of homes collapse, though no one is hurt. Five days later, they were told of the impending visit of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee to their village, on May 20.

The village got ready -- but Vajpayee did not come.

Why?

"Idhar ke BJP-walon ne mana kiya -- unko maloom hai ke hum Congress ke hain... Isliye Vajpayee seedhe Pokhran gaye (about 30 km away) aur udhar bhashan diye, chale gaye."

Did the people of the village go to Pokhran to meet him? "Koshish to kiya, lekin mana kiya gaya. The police were posted on the road, we were turned back, not allowed to meet him."

Why? "Hum to Congress ke hain aur sarkar BJP ki," the answer, in a matter-of-fact tone.

How about compensation, I ask, since I remember reading that the central government planned to make good the losses.

"Haanh, kuch government-wale aaye the, they offered amounts between Rs 500 and Rs 5,000 for each house. All of us refused."

Why? "It is too little, we can't even buy enough bricks with those amounts, let alone afford the labour. So in our panchayat, we decided to refuse; we said we will spend our own savings to repair the damage."

Manohar Joshi, local correspondent for Dainik Bhaskar, and Rajesh Bhatia, owner of Pokhran's only petrol-filling station, and hence a person of seemingly immense consequence, fill me in on the rest of the story.

Apparently the government, flustered by the refusal of the villagers of Khetolai and Dholia to accept the handouts -- I mean, whoever heard of people on the poverty line refusing money? -- sent in engineers of the Rajasthan Awas Vikas Sansthan to assess the actual damage. They came, they saw -- and in an official report estimated that it would cost Rs 1.5 million to repair the damaged walls and water tanks of Khetolai alone.

The report hasn't been heard of since, says Joshi. The government gave it a quiet burial.

"Haanh, engineerwale aaye the, they agreed it will take a lot of money to repair our walls, but we didn't hear anything about it afterwards," says Narsing Rao Bishnoi. "Is gaon mein to hum Congress ke hain, BJP sarkar hamein itna paisa kyon dega?"

Did you, for survival's sake, think of switching loyalties? Or at least pretending to?

My question draws a guffaw from the elder. "Beta, BJP ka candidate idhar to aata tak nahin," he laughs. "Kuch chote neta aate hain, bhashan dete hain, aur chale jaate hain. Yadi hum unko bol dein ke hum BJP ko vote denge, to woh vishwas nahi karenge. Arre, yadi hum such mein BJP ko vote dein, to bhi koyi vishwaas na karega -- sub log jaante hain ke hum to Congress ke hain."
.....

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 02 Sep 2009 03:17

Arun I agree with you but (perhaps it's because of other distractions{somebody planted a gun on my colleague}) could you tell me if I understand you correctly:

The 500-1500kg figures for Agni's payload is to give certain countries a sense that the range of the Agni's is limited to the 3000-5000km range bracket and that the reliable warheads for them in this instance (500-1500kg fission or boosted-fission warheads of say 50-100kt) can't reach them but if the TN device is successful then the same Agnis can travel much further ?