Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

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shiv
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by shiv »

Sanku wrote: On this forum and else where, and it was "talk" not an official proclamation.

Yes, it indeed is my prerogative to believe what I think is right.But at least I have some many data points which indicate a possiblity of a 200 KT figure.

OTOH I have seen no data point which even remotely indicates a 1MT figure. Since you say you believe in possibility of a 1MT test too, either you have some data points to support it in which it would be nice if you would share it with us, or I wouldn't know what to make of it.
It is possible to go thought this entire thread and find no evidence that the S1 shaft was incapable of containing a 1 megaton device. In terms of hard evidence. Zilch.

But this thread has several references ("talk" as you have termed it, not evidence) that the shaft designed for S1 :
  • would not have been able to contain a blast more than 60 kt (K Subrahmanyam)
    would at most have been suited for a 100 kt blast (BRM paper on craterology linked on this thread)
    would not have contained a 200 kt blast (my opinion based on the example of the Sedan event)
    would not have been able to contain a 200 kt blast (opinion of Narayanan)
So I can offer no evidence, but I could still insist that a 1 megaton blast may have been possible based on the fact that there is "no evidence to the contrary". And if I were naive enough to believe my own rhetoric merely to make a point, it would certainly be my prerogative to believe that the S1 shaft would have been capable of taking a 1 megaton blast. But it would be only talk, not evidence. Like I said the only thing that would have made 200 kt in the S1 shaft credible and 1 megaton impossible is the reputation of the person saying that. Not evidence. I do not have that reputation, so my words will not be believed. If a person of repute opines that a 200 kt blast would have been possible then his or her words would be believed even without the evidence. Talk would be enough.

This whole thread has revolved around "Whose talk are you going to believe?" Not much evidence anywhere around.
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by ramana »

Nukavarpu, Please read this article from a former diplomat and the comments section. Every where there is deep division as to what it all means. People are agitated.

How Santy's bombshell will impact India

BTW, TPS has just outlined a way forward. Lets hope it gets followed. To sum up he says: India has a voluntray morotarium affirmed by succesive PMs and that is the central to the nuke deal. If they press for CTBT then India will have to weigh its options.

My comment is BO might want Indian adherence as a selling point to his Senate to further the ratification agreement.

If pressed India might prepare to verify he says and looks like he is readig the tea leaves of US getting prepared for that eventuality.
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by munna »

ramana wrote:Munna once in a while one has to realize when the argument is over. R^2 can read MEA like a book and doesn't need the footnotes.
Some of the sizzle supporters are also supporters of accessing the treaty. So do try to read them.
I agree that it might indeed be over and we will be left holding the wooden spoon! That is why I say interesting but tense times ahead regarding our destiny as a power in our own right or maybe as a poodledom of Ankil-land. I am agnostic between sizzle ya fizzle because none (atleast me) of us know the truth but then everybody claims to know/deduce the ultimate "gyan"! I am really too small a person to judge our establishment or even the people here. Regards
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by Bheem »

Re Arun


As a layman, I have a few questions:-

Are you saying that the TN was 200kt weapon which gave only 37kt?

Or Are you saying TN was 43kt device (downrated from 200kt) but gave only 37kt?

Or are you sayin that TN was 60kt device (downrated from 200-300kt) but gave only 37kt?


And am similarly confused about what Sanathanam is saying. 60% of what?
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by Raveen »

Bheem wrote:Re Arun


As a layman, I have a few questions:-

Are you saying that the TN was 200kt weapon which gave only 37kt?

Or Are you saying TN was 43kt device (downrated from 200kt) but gave only 37kt?

Or are you sayin that TN was 60kt device (downrated from 200-300kt) but gave only 37kt?


And am similarly confused about what Sanathanam is saying. 60% of what?
60% of a 200kt device downsized to 60kt...therefore, 60% of 60kt
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by Arun_S »

csharma wrote:If even those who doubt the thermonuke yield agree that India has enough deterrence now, it would be pointless to test now.

The most optimal scenario for India would be to retain the ability to test.

It appears that India will not be the first to test but if any of the major powers breaks out and tests, then India may use the opportunity to test. I believe K Subrahmanyam had written something to that effect when the debate on testing had heated up during the nuke deal period.
By above you are saying it be acceptable for other to test but still holdback India from testing:
  • 1) TSP to outsource testing to NoKo such that NoKo tests FBF and India does nothing because NoKo is not a major power?

    2) TSP to outsource testing to NoKo such that NoKo tests TN and India does nothing because NoKo is not a major power? {meaning then TSP has a tested TN and India does not}

    3) China to outsource testing to NoKo such that NoKo tests TN and India does nothing because NoKo is not a major power? {Strong suspeciion that what is being validated via proxy is the stolen US design}

    4) Pakistan tests and India does nothing because TSP is not a major power?

    5) Iran tests and India does nothing because Iran is not a major power?

    6) US tests a nuclear device yet at the same time it has not violated CTBT and India does nothing because US did not technically violate CTBT because their pure fusion test did not involve Fission chain reaction (teh touchstone to CTBT's definition of a nuclear explosion) ?
In my opinion your proposal is seriously flawed.

The correct Indian policy should be India will resume testing if there is any ANY nuclear (Fission and/or Fusion) test by ANY NATION. Period !
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by ramana »

Today morning there were reports of NoKo enriching Uranium as a two-track approach. BTW I bet its for the casing of the next weapon they will test. They already tested :trigger, pry and now the assembly. And all without codes/vodes etc., etc.
And all US can do is whine. But wrt they can sanction. :eek:

Nukavarpu, Thanks. One more thing CTBT accession will mean recognizing the NPT structure.
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by Arun_S »

Dileep wrote:OK, you didn't get the derivation part. Let me try.

From definition of Richter scale,
Magnitude ML = K + log10 (A) where A is the horizontal motion amplitude. K is a constant attenuation factor.

From shiv's formula:
Mb = K1 + 0.75 * log10(Y)

So, K + log10(A) = K1 + 0.75 * log10(Y)

log10(A) = K1-K + 0.75 * log10(Y)
= K2 + 0.75 * log10(Y)

That gives

log10(A1) = K2 + 0.75 * log10(Y1)
log10(A2) = K2 + 0.75 * log10(Y2)

ie log10(A1) - log10(A2) = 0.75 * (log10(Y1) - log10(Y2)

log10(A1/A2) = 0.75 * log10(Y1/Y2)
= log10(Y1/Y2 ^ 0.75)

Therefore A1/A2 = (Y1/Y2) ^ 0.75
and A1 = A2 * ( (Y1/Y2) ^ 0.75))

I missed the raise to 0.75 power part. Sorry about that. So the amplitude increses at the 0.75 power of the yield increase factor. A doubling of yield will increase the amplitude by 1.68 times.

If the design yield was 200KT, and the actual was 43KT, the amplitude will be 3.16 times. If the actual was 27KT, it will be 5 times.

does not kill the argument does it?
Given that the seismic power spectrum from Shakti is very different from earthquakes, one must also consider frequency specific damping and propagation (attenuation) constants. Shakti test put lot of energy in the higher frequency 6 Hz band instead of 1 -1.5 Hz by earthquakes. That is good 2 octave difference.

As regarding damage to buildings, structural failure versus incident vibrational energy is known to be very strong function of frequency (logarithmically inversely proportional). IIRC that is a typical LPF (Low Pass Filter) coupling model, and again 2 octaves frequency difference will have 1/4th (25%) the effect compared to equivalent seismic energy from earthquake.

I wish I had spent more time quizzing the professors at the Earth-Quake Engineering Deptt at Roorkee University when I was installing something for their shake table (that was giant sized) decades ago.

So much for the argument that little more Pokhran yield would have flattened village houses.
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by Bheem »

Raveen wrote:
Bheem wrote:Re Arun


As a layman, I have a few questions:-

Are you saying that the TN was 200kt weapon which gave only 37kt?

Or Are you saying TN was 43kt device (downrated from 200kt) but gave only 37kt?

Or are you sayin that TN was 60kt device (downrated from 200-300kt) but gave only 37kt?


And am similarly confused about what Sanathanam is saying. 60% of what?

60% of a 200kt device downsized to 60kt...therefore, 60% of 60kt

If the 60% of 60kt can be achieved then I suppose one can get 60% of 200kt i.e. 120kt which should be adequate. Or on the other hand one can say that if the primary could not compress even small amount of Li-deutrium then how will it compress many times more of the same material with the same sized primary.

On the other hand IIRC Arun is saying that Boosted primary was 17kt, Fusion 3kt, boosted spark plug 7kt and tertiary 10kt. Does it mean that every stage was downgraded being the primary, fusion stage, spark plug and teritary and due to this degradation something snaped and yield dropped to 37kt instead of expected 60kt???

60% of a 200kt device downsized to 60kt...therefore, 60% of 60kt
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by Arun_S »

nukavarapu wrote: Thats some interesting stuff in that article. But after reading it, it seems that post KS fiasco, we have actually ended up in a far more tighter situation than before. Someone said "Suspicion is enough to kill an innocent". Now everyone from Ameerkhan to Chipanda to Queen and her henchman are now highly suspicious of us.
Nothing is new for them. They had known this just few months after 19998. One can fool teh world sometimes, but not always. In this case the latter. Only lay Indians continued to believe in what was dished out by what our "daihati" call "Mitti Kay Madhav".
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by Bheem »

On a side note, I think that it is riduculus to say that Santhanam would not have been aware of expected yield. personally I think that he would be aware of the design also but even assuming that he was not aware nor told nor involved in the design of TN, But to say that he was dead to all info and asked to do instrumentation to find out the "exact" yield and instrumentation to find out how "exactly" the TN burned, is IMHO absurd.
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by Arun_S »

Bheem wrote:If the 60% of 60kt can be achieved then I suppose one can get 60% of 200kt i.e. 120kt which should be adequate. Or on the other hand one can say that if the primary could not compress even small amount of Li-deutrium then how will it compress many times more of the same material with the same sized primary.

On the other hand IIRC Arun is saying that Boosted primary was 17kt, Fusion 3kt, boosted spark plug 7kt and tertiary 10kt. Does it mean that every stage was downgraded being the primary, fusion stage, spark plug and teritary and due to this degradation something snaped and yield dropped to 37kt instead of expected 60kt???

60% of a 200kt device downsized to 60kt...therefore, 60% of 60kt
Ahhh ... you were mentioning me in your previous email? There are some other Aruns and Vishwakarmaas on this forum and thread. In future pls refer to me as Arun_S.
On the other hand IIRC Arun is saying that Boosted primary was 17kt, Fusion 3kt, boosted spark plug 7kt and tertiary 10kt. Does it mean that every stage was downgraded being the primary, fusion stage, spark plug and teritary and due to this degradation something snaped and yield dropped to 37kt instead of expected 60kt???
I said the original article tested as S1 on 11 May 1998, was a full 200 kt device that yielded Boosted primary 17kt, Fusion 3kt, boosted spark plug + tertiary 10kt. That was a full device and nothing was scaled down.
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by Bheem »

Re Arun_S


I thought that Sanathanam has talked about 60% results achieved, so as per you this could not refer to 60% of the yield if out of 200kt only 17+3+10=30kt was obtained.
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by ramana »

Bheem,

KSanthanam was referring to the 43kt announced yeild of TN device on May16th press conf. He says 60% of that was achieved.
No one BARC says they tested 200kt.

They say they can scale TN upto 200kt based on what was achieved at S-I.

If KS says only 60% of 43 kt was achieved and we know what went into it (pry, spark plug etc.) its very doubtful and against physics to say one could achieve the higher number using this process.
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by Bheem »

Ramana/Arun_s

This is exactly my query. If S is saying that 60% of 43kt is achieved then achieved yield is only 25kt while if Arun_s is saying that out of 200kt only 30kt is achieved then only 15% is achieved. Am I missing something?????????

So as per Arun_S - weapon was 200kt achieved 30kt =15%

So as per S - weapon was 43kt achieved 25kt =60%
Last edited by Bheem on 05 Sep 2009 01:29, edited 1 time in total.
ramana
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by ramana »

Bheem wrote:Ramana/Arun_s

This exactly my query. If S is saying that 60% of 43kt is achieved then achieved yield is only 25kt while if Arun_s is saying that out of 200kt only 30kt is achieved then only 15% is achieved. Am I missing something?????????
They both are the same thing. Santhanam says 60% of 43 kt achieved ie 26kt which is about same as Arun_S is saying.
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by Bheem »

ramana wrote:
Bheem wrote:Ramana/Arun_s

This exactly my query. If S is saying that 60% of 43kt is achieved then achieved yield is only 25kt while if Arun_s is saying that out of 200kt only 30kt is achieved then only 15% is achieved. Am I missing something?????????
They both are the same thing. Santhanam says 60% of 43 kt achieved ie 26kt which is about same as Arun_S is saying.

Sorry, see Arun_S post above "I said the original article tested as S1 on 11 May 1998, was a full 200 kt device that yielded Boosted primary 17kt, Fusion 3kt, boosted spark plug + tertiary 10kt. That was a full device and nothing was scaled down."
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by Arun_S »

ramana wrote:Bheem,

KSanthanam was referring to the 43kt announced yeild of TN device on May16th press conf. He says 60% of that was achieved.
No one BARC says they tested 200kt.

They say they can scale TN upto 200kt based on what was achieved at S-I.

If KS says only 60% of 43 kt was achieved and we know what went into it (pry, spark plug etc.) its very doubtful and against physics to say one could achieve the higher number using this process.
I agree.
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by Arun_S »

Bheem wrote:Ramana/Arun_s

This is exactly my query. If S is saying that 60% of 43kt is achieved then achieved yield is only 25kt while if Arun_s is saying that out of 200kt only 30kt is achieved then only 15% is achieved. Am I missing something?????????

So as per Arun_S - weapon was 200kt achieved 30kt =15%

So as per S - weapon was 43kt achieved 25kt =60%
As I said many pages earlier, Santhanam is protecting the tarred chaddhi (what ever is left of it) of India (and still protect some semblance of honour and deterrence), by saying what was achieved versus what was declared (and what was declared = 100% == the deliberate design yield by weaponeers).
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by Prem »

for Non techy like me,Are you guys saying use of teen sau pachas to get do sau thus patakha is mota becuasue of extra desi ghee maal i.e antar of daidh sau charbi on tummy.
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by Raveen »

Prem wrote:for Non techy like me,Are you guys saying use of teen sau pachas to get do sau thus patakha is mota becuasue of extra desi ghee maal i.e antar of daidh sau charbi on tummy.
janaab
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by ShauryaT »

Let us play the scenario and assume that a 200Kt device was indeed tested for S1 and RC claimed a yield of 43Kt for the same. What happened from this known failure to "success"? Meaning how did RC do it, for there is no fudge factor room available here. Meaning the fact that the design failed could not be hidden from the political masters or was it?
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by ramana »

The pols and me were happy at the 43kt for that means 200kt can be achieved in real life. Later came to know it really wasn't so during the run-up to the deal. Hence was quite upset. And got into bad books of people supporting the nuke deal. However when the test clause was inserted it was ok by me, for if needed, it can be tested and uncle can take his reactors or what is left of it back.

And K Santanam is confirmed that last week.

However RC & APJK say its like that only. BM says I relied on APJK. (See he doesnt say I listened to RC.) HNS says Santy is right. MRS says listen to Santy but believe RC.

It would be nice to hear what Arundhati Ghose is saying in that seminar where all this brouhah took place.
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by Avarachan »

shiv wrote:
Philip I think the meaning that seems to be emerging from the voices of all the dissenters is clear

1) More testing is essential
2) No CTBT

I think they are absolutely right. Particularly because the world that is keen to see India's signature on the CTBT is the same world that turned a blind eye to Chinese proliferation to Pakistan.
Shiv, that's a profound point. I would also add that after China invades Taiwan, the "world community" will shout and scream and then get on with business as usual.

After Russia attacked Georgia, the "West" screamed bloody murder--and now goes out of its way to seek a "reset" and a new relationship with Russia.

Indians should be strong and do what it is necessary for India's security.
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by shiv »

http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Usa/Tests/Nevada.html

This link shows a list of what appears to be over a hundred (I have not counted) US tests conducted underground.

The columns on the extreme right show depth of burial (in meters) versus yield.

The vast majority of tests of 200 kt bombs were conducted in shafts in excess of 400 meters depth - often over 500 or even 600 meters. Only two tests (in my cursory reading) of "20-200 kt" yield were conducted at depths of 300 meters or less.

Note the number of tests classified as "20-200 kt". Note the number of 20 kt and "low" tests done.
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Post by ShauryaT »

A have a general question for participants here and ask if the word "minimum" in our nuclear doctrine serves India's interests or is more of a liability from the past and should be dispensed with?

The question is relevant as it is a key word that drives the debate and separates those who want to live with a certain number of weapons of a certain type and those who want it all.
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by shiv »

ShauryaT wrote:A have a general question for participants here and ask if the word "minimum" in our nuclear doctrine serves India's interests or is more of a liability from the past and should be dispensed with?

The question is relevant as it is a key word that drives the debate and separates those who want to live with a certain number of weapons of a certain type and those who want it all.
Shaurya I suspect the word "minimum" is a rhetorical Indianism. Anybody who chooses to argue about the meaning of the word minimum will end up arguing about semantics and will be ignoring the fact that India reserves the right to develop and maintain nuclear weapons in the first place. The "minimum" is a rhetorical add on that is supposed to indicate "not excessive"; "genuine";"within the limits required for security"; "we have no intention of destroying the whole world unlike others we know about"
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by shiv »

If you search for "available evidence" about Indian nuclear test yields and ignore all Indian sources, even Santanam and PK Iyengar - you will find that some sources say that the May 11 test were as low as 5 kilotons.

There is no specific reason why Santanam is right and those sources wrong unless you deliberately want to make Santanam's words "more right" than both Chidambaram's 43 kt and independent observers 5 kt. We have no information to say that any of these people are "more correct and more accurate" than others

Any statement that the Indian bomb was designed for 45 kt but gave 15 kt fission, 3 kt spark plug and 6 kt fusion is giving away specific design information which is not available to anyone off the shelf. So the break up of yield is pure guesswork ( a white lie) or an attempt to reveal special knowledge of the bomb design - which even Santanam and PKI Have not done. PC (or was it Sikka) has specifically stated that this information will NOT be made public because bomb design details will be given away. So is it really being made public via BRF?
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by Gagan »

Typical Indian-ness in the use of the word Minimal.

Possession of nuclear weapons is a bad enough thing. India seeks to try and reduce the crime of possession of bad nuclear weapons by professing to posses the minimum possible. Its like bob marley saying "I shot the sherrif..."
You're a murderer if you did it. No brownie points for possessing minimum, I say.
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by Katare »

From DRDO newsletter, about Dr Saraswat

Dr Saraswat took over charge of CCR&D(MSS)
at DRDO HQrs, Delhi on 01 November 2005 in
addition to Programme Director ‘AD’. He made
contributions of high distinction in the country’s
strategic programme for Special Weapon Systems.
He has been the architect for integration of Strategic
systems and delivery systems.
With his visionary
approach, a multi-layered, secure, strategic
communication network has been fielded and made
operational, in a record time. The systems conceived
by him have been successfully designed, evaluated
and operationalised.
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by Gagan »

Santy's Bombshell will have an impact beyond our borders
The question facing the nation relates also to the credibility of the minimum deterrent, a matter which may interest our adversaries. Dr A Gopalakrishnan and others have asked whether it is necessary at all to have a thermonuclear device when we already have fission weapons in our arsenal. It may be more productive to invest in research and development of fusion weapons and also participate in ITER.

The higher priority should be for us to miniaturise the weapons and improve our capacity for delivery. Perhaps, this is what is implied by the confident assertion of the NSA and others that no further tests are necessary.
There is an inherent contradiction here. This is what someone who doesn't know why the P5 have Thermonuclear weapons and why India seeks the same, will think. The TN weapon is not some extra exotic fruit that the NWS seek, it is very SDRE and economical.
Bottom line: The TN is the most efficient bang for the buck, It is the lightest warhead type that gives the largest yield possible, thus increasing your missile's range and carry capacity.
The non-proliferation ayatollahs in the US will now go hammer and tongs at India for harbouring ambitions to test thermonuclear weapons and they will campaign against the implementation of the deal. No one can take away the NSG waiver unless India tests, but the needle of suspicion will be on India right now.
On the contrary, I feel that as the CTBT makes its way through the US congress and senate, the oppositon to it will come from the Pentagon and these very same NPA's. There is an element of aligning of forces in what the NPA's want and what Santy wants - an Indian test to be the initiator for breakthrough testing.
India has always been under suspicion for over 4 decades, this suspicion was only reaffirmed as late as last year during the nuclear deal, when India specially carved out the test moratorium clause for itself.
I will expect only more support to Santy's viewpoint from the NPA's, it seems CTBT is the common enemy now.
Last edited by Gagan on 05 Sep 2009 07:36, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by Kanson »

http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Usa/Tests/Nevada.html

This link shows a list of what appears to be over a hundred (I have not counted) US tests conducted underground.

The columns on the extreme right show depth of burial (in meters) versus yield.

The vast majority of tests of 200 kt bombs were conducted in shafts in excess of 400 meters depth - often over 500 or even 600 meters. Only two tests (in my cursory reading) of "20-200 kt" yield were conducted at depths of 300 meters or less.
Listed those with DOB and specific Yield of ~ 200KT indicated by the last two columns.

COMMODORE 670520 1500 37.07494 116.03502 746.46 250 KT
BILBY 630913 1700.0013 37.03375 116.0118 714.3 249 KT
CARPETBAG 701217 1605.0016 37.07449 116.04588 661.42 220 KT
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by Neshant »

As I wrote in several previous posts, India's official stand on CTBT was articulated by one of these "ignornant bureaucrats" Shyam Saran in March.
Isn't he's the guy who bungled up India's position on the negotiations of climate change in Italy. If so, I don't trust a word he says.

The fact that a scientist had to come out and say it publically is proof enough for me that the government was about to bungle up on the nuclear front as well. With guys like Saran running around signing agreements willy nilly, I'd be wary.
Dileep
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by Dileep »

Let me take the arguments about the physical damage a bit further.

The depth of the shaft is a function of blowout, not quake damage. At a distance of 6 km, the body wave will be essentially the same whether the shaft is 200m or 600m. You need deeper shaft to prevent blowout.

Arun_S has a valid point. The frequency was indeed higher. But my point is, everything else remaining the same, a bigger blast would have created bigger damage. Or, are you claiming that:

1. A bigger blast would move the frequency further up, reducing the damage?
2. The amplitude response is non-linear, like a clipping circuit?

If neither of the above is true, then a bigger blast would result in a bigger damage.

Sanku also has a valid point about the 0.75 factor. Let us go a bit deeper on that.

What exactly happens when an explosion happens in the shaft? Humongous amounts of energy is released in a very short duration. This will heat up the matter and cause it to expand. This expansion create shock waves. The liberation of the energy itself happens for a period infinitesimally shorter than the period of the mass movement, so the actual mechanism of the explosion is immaterial (FBF or TN)

Some portion of energy appears as heat and the rest gets transferred into the shock wave. The 0.75 power is an empirical figure for this. The actual number depends upon the "coupling", which depends upon the elastic and specific heat factors of the soil. If the soil has infinite specific heat and infinite elasticity, 100% of the energy would appear as shock wave. If it has zero elasticity OR zero specific heat, 100% of energy will appear as heat. Since soil composition is somewhat same all around the world (unless you do the explosion in an iron ore mine), the number will not vary too much IMO.

Things change a bit if you insert vast amounts of other material, like air or water at the blast site. Those materials have remarkably different parameters, so the coupling factor can change. If you blast inside a cavern of air, the air gets heated up, gets compressed, and you end up a big cavern of superheated air, which will dissipate into the soil rather slowly. But you need pretty solid cover for the cavern, because it can blow up much later, like the blanberry test blowup after 3.5 minutes.

Doing it in the water table does the same thing, but it is a terrible idea. The water body is not bound by anything solid, unlike the cavern of air. So, if you burst one in the water table, every well around in a vast area will turn into geysers.

The size of the cavern needed is humongous. You can't really dig it. The only possible way is to do solution mining of salt. You place the device inside, and really seal the cavern. Upon blast, the cavern will hold superheated air for a very long time. If you do not seal it well, it will vent with all kinds of nasty stuff.

As far as the available info goes, POK-2 was conducted in regular shafts in regular soil, so the coupling factor of 0.75 would be a good number IMO.

Now, let us look at the frequency issue.

The frequency is a function of elasticity of the soil. Has someone compared the frequency spectrum of the POK blasts with other blasts? I don't think they are different. So, the same established method of yield calculation should work for POK also.

Does the frequency depend upon the yield? Take a look at the POK-2 spectral siesmograph. It seems they were. You can see two distinct bands in the spectrum. It looks like the two main blasts had different frequencies :!:

The damage to a structure depends upon the amplitude AND the frequency of the ground wave. The shear force on a wall will be proportional to the acceleration, which is proportional to the amplitude AND the frequency. For a given amplitude, higher the frequency, higher the acceleration and higher the damage.

But the propagation parameters work the opposite. Higher the frequency, higher the attenuation, hence lower the amplitude that reaches the target. So, it becomes a bit complex.

For shorter distances, the selective attenuation should have less of an effect. So, for a place like Khetolai, the primary effect would be, higher the frequency, higher the damage. And I guess if frequency depends upon the yield, it should be higher for higher yield.

Findings:

1. The shaft depth is immaterial for considering siesmic damage. It is relevant only for blowout prevention.
2. The coupling constant 0.75 is pretty reliable.
3. The attenuation constant depends upon the path between the blast site and the monitoring site, as well as the frequency of the signal. It can vary a lot based on the frequency, so you need to use the right constant value for the received frequency.
4. Siesmic damage at a specific location can be scaled using the coupling factor, with one assumption that the frequency is independent of the yield. Even if it is dependent on yield, it should be higher for a higher yield, hence more damaging.
suryag
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by suryag »

Bade buzurg one humble request even if it was a fizzle please dont refer s-1 as pok1, those three letters kind of make facts difficult to digest
ramana
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by ramana »

Gagan, Those who know know all that. There wont be an Indian test nor will there be any adherence unless it enhances Indian security. Lets see.

I am curious about certain posters wanting to know real designs. There is the OSA and the act that JLN passed in 1955. Please do look them up.
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by shiv »

In an early paper Chidambaram wrote

http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers5/paper451.html
The thermonuclear device tested on May 11 was a two-stage device of advanced design, which had a fusion-boosted fission trigger as the first stage and a fusion secondary stage which was compressed by radiation implosion and ignited. For reasons of proliferation sensitivity, we have not given the details of the materials used in the device or their quantities. Also, our nuclear weapon designers, like nuclear weapon designers all over the world, have not given the fusion component of the total yield for our thermonuclear test.
Whether the fusion component was 3 kilotons or less or more is not stated by anyone, But BRF has the fusion component stated by someone. This is either guesswork or revelation of a state secret.

The Indian official secrets act is applicable only to Indian citizens and those who come under the ambit of Indian law. If these two do not apply it is possible for a person to reveal official secrets via devious routes.

Could that have happened on BRF? Perhaps for the "well intentioned reason" of exposing liar scientists and ultimately improving Bharat Mata's security?
shiv
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by shiv »

Dileep wrote:Let me take the arguments about the physical damage a bit further..
No sure - but you might find some information here in the paper by Sikka, Roy and Basu

http://www.ias.ac.in/currsci/oct252002/992.pdf
John Snow
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by John Snow »

when you say zero specific heat, are you meaning adiabatic conditions such that no heat is transferred or conducted away, in the hollow cavity?
It will not be complete adiabatic or complete Isothermal there will be a gradient.
at nao second there will be a dip in temperature and heat energy to convert all the silca to glass or porcelain which then becomes adiabatic (nearly) and takes the compression during this nao second the temp will also drop and then build up,

This my conjecture

I could be totally wrong too
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Post by John Snow »

Googly mama throwsup this
SHOCK WAVES AND RADIATION INTRODUCTION Strong shock waves heat ...nomena as nuclear explosions,. hypersonic motion of bodies in the atmo ..... through the heated gas is exactly equal to the isothermal sound speed. The .... process of an explosion proceeds adiabatically, then after the moment when ...... 2 X 1010 cm/sec cannot be stopped momentarily. They give up their ...
arjournals.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/.../annurev.fl.01.010169.002125 - Similar


http://www.scientificexploration.org/jo ... tassos.pdf


there is lot of Russian literature and reserach publications on this
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