Geopolitical thread

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Pranav
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Pranav »

brihaspati wrote: From the Indian viewpoint, where we see consistently, that Muslim majority countries are usually hostile to the non-Muslim aspect of Bharat, or at best neutral, we should not say or discuss things that are hostile to the current nation of Israel. By deconstructing Israel or its founding motivations, we may indulge in historical "purity", but strategically alienate the only friendly nation we have in the ME. There is a lot of lessons to be learnt about how to make crucial leadership choices and leadership decisions in the national interest from Israel and its founding fathers. If even a fraction of such determination could be shown by our own founding fathers, the nation today would be on a different footing.
B ji, I fully appreciate your point and it is a crucial one.

It is true that India has had very positive relations with the state of Israel. But the point is that the Western elites who back Israel have an agenda that extends far beyond Israel.

India does, for example, feel the effects of policy decisions of the US and European nations. So we need to understand the big picture of what is driving these policies.

Consider, for example, British foreign minister David Miliband endorsing Rahul Gandhi, spending the night with him in Kalavati's hut in Amethi. We should not be unaware of the fact the David Miliband's grandfather was fighting alongside Trotsky at the time of the Bolshevik revolution (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... amily.html). It may or may not be something that is driving Miliband's world-view, but it is something to be noted.

Or consider CEC Navin Chawla getting the Mazzini award. We should be aware of the deeper connotations - Mazzini was a member of the same secret societies that were patronized by elites like the Rothschilds.

Or look at the EvanJehadi activities in India - their conversion agenda, their links with Naxalites, Maoists, and the LTTE. Should we not be aware of who has infiltrated and is controlling the Church organizations, including the Vatican? (See the book http://www.catholicvoice.co.uk/brokencross/ )

Should we not be concerned if the same forces have acquired interests and collaborators in the Indian press and electronic media?

Or even consider Mumbai 26/11. The LeT is said to have done this in collaboration with "Al Qaeda" elements from the Arab peninsula. To what extent is "Al Qaeda" is infiltrated by Western intelligence? Some intriguing elements of that incident are still unexplained - in particular the phone call to Zardari from somebody claiming to be Pranab Mukherjee.

Overall, India seems to be far more porous and subject to manipulation than say China.
brihaspati
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by brihaspati »

pranav ji,
your concerns are also mine. But I hold the Israeli machinations, financial sponsorship etc., to be part of their millenia spanning experience of exile and trauma. They got allied to the powers they thought would be most helpful in obtaining their targets. I said "friendly" and not "friend". :mrgreen: It will be a long time before they treat us as "equals". You would have noticed that I do not openly "fire" upon the other Abrahamics compared to the "Islamic". This is according to my theory of getting as many entities as possible on my side to finish off the most pressing enemy. I am fully aware all the time of the potentials for damage of the entities whom I get temporarily on my side. Only that I feel I need not shout about my awareness to them. :)
vishwakarmaa
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by vishwakarmaa »

shravan wrote:
vishwakarmaa wrote: The firefighter's statement that he heard explosions in building were also omitted from the report.
The person who was inside the building WTC7 who heard and saw those explosions died (undisclosed causes) just before the NIST Assessment... :eek:
--
If anyone interested search for "Barry Jennings". He gives a interview just after the Twin Tower Collapse.
USA is under the rule of biggest thugs on earth, the weapons-maker, Oil Companies and uncontrollable fascist army who are ready to kill own people.

One Fox reporter is saying he didn't see any "windows" on the plane which hit WTC. :eek:

And also, both planes created a FLASH just before they hit the building. They are said to be missiles, given a form of airplane by attaching fake wing extensions.

See this video, it shows the FLASH in plane "before" it hit WTC:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbCcb6NV8Io&NR=1

The flash is said tobe for igniting the fuel. Can someone confirm if this FLASH is part of missile operation?

Also, there was news report that Jews were asked not to come on job that day in WTC. Is that true?
ramana
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by ramana »

Take it easy on these CTs. I dont want BRF turned into a CT rathole like elsewhere. This is BRF, so we worry about Bharat ie is India or vivce versa. So dontpost any pof that stuff in this forum.

Thanks, ramana
vishwakarmaa
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by vishwakarmaa »

Ramana ji,

I am wonder why you think its CT.

Its a fact that 9/11 victims think on same line, which I am putting here. These theories are being openly discussed today amongst people in USA. And, judiciary is refusing to restart the 9/11 investigations which were stopped "midway" by presidential order(Bush).

Also, whatever I posted here, has already been put in Japanese parliament by a Japanese leader. This leader who is now part of Government in Japan, actively discusses and spreads this issue in public.

In Feb.2008, same minister was present in european parliament which "conspiracy" film on 9/11 on published and shown to members.

If I don't get even a basic freedom to discuss or say something which has been "openly" said and discussed in european and Japanese parliament, then that would not be in interests of BRF, because 9/11 directly affects Bharata(India) and every part of this region and specially when this "war on terror" is now prooving to be something else.

If you still want me to delete those minority voices which are being supressed in USA, then I will delete my posts but what about Japanese and european parliament? If they allow such issues to be discussed, why not BRF?
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Rahul M »

And also, both planes created a FLASH just before they hit the building. They are said to be missiles, given a form of airplane by attaching fake wing extensions.

See this video, it shows the FLASH in plane "before" it hit WTC:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbCcb6NV8Io&NR=1

The flash is said tobe for igniting the fuel. Can someone confirm if this FLASH is part of missile operation?
reflection off the aircraft's body.
'extra' equipment in 2nd plane is the shadow of the starboard engine on the fuselage.
ramana
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by ramana »

Let them talk we are not them. Lets stick to Indian interests in all this.
shravan
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by shravan »

ramana wrote:Let them talk we are not them. Lets stick to Indian interests in all this.
ramana garu,

If we understand why 9/11 happened then one can connect all the dots and the puzzle could be solved.

----------------------

vishwakarmaa,

Please don't post the plane crash vedios (WTC). There is noting wrong in the crash.

NSA had a office in WTC and none of the NSA Officers came to the office on 9/11. (You were referring to the jews which is inccorect)

You might be interested in this video.
vishwakarmaa
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by vishwakarmaa »

ramana wrote:Let them talk we are not them. Lets stick to Indian interests in all this.
It is in Indian interests for Indians to be fearless and think openly, rather than trusting anyone in a blind manner. That is what will ensure long-term security and independence for us.

The day BRFites lose Freedom of thoughts and freedom to discuss, they can't protect interests of Bharata(India).

Thats what distinguishes Russians and Chinese from Indians. They are 'fearless'. We are so much scared and paranoid that we even refuse to discuss an event which is part of global geopolitics just because it may anger USA. Why we so scared of USA?

When we become scared of something, we can't protect our own interests.
Philip
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Philip »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... unter.html
The S-300: a potent weapon and diplomatic bargaining counter
The S-300 missile system is both a highly sophisticated defence against air attack and a potent diplomatic bargaining chip.

By Adrian Blomfield in Jerusalem
Published: 7:16PM BST 11 Sep 2009

Considered at least as effective as the American Patriot, this surface-to-air missile shield can track 100 targets and destroy an aircraft at a range of over 90 miles.

Iran has long coveted the S-300 as a means of protecting its vital nuclear facilities against attack from anything except the most advanced stealth aircraft. Its hopes were raised when Russia signed a preliminary export contract in 2007.

Related Articles
Russia threatens to supply Iran with top new missile system as 'cold war' escalates
Japanese technology 'helped launch North Korean rocket'

Iran tests new missile, official media says Israel's air force has no stealth aircraft, greatly increasing the risk attached to striking any Iranian nuclear installations protected by the S-300.

Instead of going ahead with the sale, however, Russia has employed the possible export of the missiles as a powerful diplomatic lever. The Kremlin has already secured a promise from Israel not to sell weapons to Georgia, Russia's arch enemy.

Moscow has also used the possible sale of the S-300 to place pressure on America. Russia has reportedly promising to cancel the contract with Iran if Washington abandons its plans for a missile defence shield in central Europe.

But some experts say that even if Tehran did get its hands on the S-300, the system would take years to become operational as it would have to be integrated with Iran's existing Tor-M1 anti-aircraft system.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... unter.html
Add to this the US plan to sell Patriots to Turkey,which is angering Iran,which wants the above S-300s,and we are getting into yet another missile imbroglio (remember staioning ABMs in Poland?) thanks to US forked tongue diplomacy.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php? ... 2009-09-13
Missile sale may worsen Turkey, Iran ties

Sunday, September 13, 2009
ISTANBUL - Hürriyet Daily News

The Obama administration’s disclosure of a possible $7.8 billion sale of its most advanced version of the Patriot air-defense missile to Turkey has sparked regional concerns with some warning that the arms package might deteriorate Ankara’s relations with Tehran.

“For Turkey’s part, purchasing the Patriot missiles mean engaging in a conflict with Iran,” said professor Ömer Alpaslan Aksu.

The Pentagon has notified Congress over weekend about it plans to sell the Patriot PAC-3 anti-missile batteries and related gear to Turkey, the only NATO ally bordering Iran. The Pentagon estimated the cost at $7.8 billion, which would be one of the biggest U.S. government-to-government arms sales in years and would mark a return of Turkey as a major U.S. arms buyer.

“Washington needs a working mechanism to bring Iran within bounds amid the rising influence of the Islamic Republic in the region and ongoing negotiations over its nuclear dispute. And in its fresh strategy for the region, the United States gives a crucial role to Turkey,” Aksu told the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review on Sunday. “[US President Barack] Obama wants to solve Iranian impasse immediately with all possible options. In any case, he will seek Turkey’s assistance,” he said.

Such a purchase would represent “a big consolidation of U.S.-Turkish military ties,” Soner Cagaptay, an expert on Turkey at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a nonpartisan research group, quoted by Reuters news agency as saying.

Missile shield link?

While pursuing diplomatic overtures with Iran regarding the nuclear deadlock, Washington also does not rule out the military option or plans to deploy a missile-defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic, which have created serious tension between Russia and the United States in the past. Earlier this month, a top defense lobbyist said the negotiations are continuing over U.S. plans to deploy a missile-defense shield in Turkey, a possibility floated last week by a Polish newspaper.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoğlu immediately responded to the claims, saying that the government has not received any request from the United States or NATO regarding the missile-defense project. But Riki Ellison, chairman of the U.S.-based Missle Defense Advocacy Alliance, or MDAA, insisted to the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review that he hopes to see a working missile-defense shield in operation by 2013.

“The sale of Patriot missiles does not have a direct link with the U.S. missile shield program,” said Arif Keskin, an expert on Iranian affairs. “Nevertheless, with this huge military deal, Washington wants to improve Turkey’s military capacity against Iran as it also block Turkey’s likely desires to nuclearization.”

Keskin said any American missile could only be placed in Turkey if NATO gives a green light for the program. “However, if Turkey agrees to open its soil to the missile shield program, it would worsen its relations with not only Iran, but also Syria and Russia.”

Aksu agreed with Keskin, adding: “For now, The Turkish government might take steps in harmony with the United States. However, the ongoing internal debate and hot political agenda could complicate the situation for the ruling Justice and Development Part [AKP] and Washington may lose the opportunity to solve Iranian problem. So, if the U.S. wants to achieve any progress on Iran, it should take actions immediately.”

Carol Migdalovitz, an expert on the country at the research service, said the proposed sale showed Turkey was hedging its bets on improved ties with Iran. “While it has improved (bilateral) trade and energy ties, Turkey remains wary of Iran's nuclear program,” she told Reuters.

Recalling the chill in Turkey-US relations after the Iraq invasion, Keskin said the United States also seeks a clean page with Turkey and wants to refresh its relationship with the country, which has witnessed rising anti-American sentiment over the past few years. “With the new military deals, Washington signals its willingness to improve its ties with Turkey. The latest package is a firm indicator of this willingness,” he said.
paramu
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by paramu »

People who want to bring in 9/11 details to this forum should understand the story "Emperor is walking naked". All wise, intelligent and responsible people could not say in public that the emperor was really naked. If they did, they would be called fools. BRF is also in such a predicament. If we discuss 9/11 details, we will be called conspiracy theorists. So, let's spare BRF from such a tag, please go and find a kid who will shout loudly that the emperor is walking naked.
ramana
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by ramana »

Its like the POK II thread. You can chant all you want that it worked, it worked which is the official line. If you say otherwise you are CT and that will de-legtimize what else you want to say.

However in the end it will be liek Galillio's "It still moves!"
brihaspati
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by brihaspati »

Someone can start a Great Unsolved CT thread, if Mods allow it. Much more than 9/11, I would be interested in things like the Kursk incident and how it changed Putin+Clinton. That probably had a far more significant impact on world scenario than 9/11. :mrgreen:

More seriously I think, such large events as 9/11 can of course be orchestrated at the beginning but they, just like large scale warfare, can be started but once started cannot always be controlled to desired end. War appears to actually provide a shock - a perturbation to equilibrium. It shakes up and when the dust settles, a more "natural" equilibrium happens. WWII simply adjusted the change of system that the British empire was refusing to admit - in line with changing forces of society and economy.
SSridhar
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by SSridhar »

On how & why Thatcher & Mitterand 'feared' the Fall of the Berlin Wall
Excerpts
The fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989 was hailed in the West as a seminal moment in its “struggle” against Communism and sparked a wave of euphoria. But, it has now emerged, that behind those euphoric public pronouncements there were deep anxieties in most European capitals, especially in London and Paris.

Indeed, neither Margaret Thatcher, the then British Prime Minister, nor French President Francois Mitterrand wanted the wall to come down as they feared that a unified Germany would be a “threat” to European security.
“We do not want a united Germany. This would lead to a change to postwar borders, and we cannot allow that because such a development would undermine the stability of the whole international situation and could endanger our security,” she {Mrs. Thatcher} told Mr. Gorbachev.
. . .Mitterrand’s personal adviser Jacques Attali reportedly met Vadim Zagladin, a senior Gorbachev aide, in Kiev, and repeated Mrs. Thatcher’s warning against German reunification.
She feared that a “strong Germany might replace Britain as America’s closest ally in Europe, a suspicion that had been inflamed by a speech of President Bush [senior] in May 1989, in which he had referred to Germany as America’s ‘partner in leadership.’”

“Although he later added that Britain was a partner in leadership too, in Margaret Thatcher’s view, ‘the damage had been done.’ Any power likely to usurp Britain’s role as America’s ally, in effect to kill off the special relationship, was likely to raise Thatcher’s ire,”
she called a meeting of British and German historians at Chequers to discuss German national characteristics that, according to a record of the meeting drawn up by her foreign policy advisor Sir Charles Powel, included “angst, aggressiveness, assertiveness, bullying, egotism, inferiority complexes and sentimentality.”

She had to be reportedly assured that there was “no danger of a Fourth Reich”
svinayak
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by svinayak »


No we can't? UK think tank says US power is fading

AP
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090915/ap_ ... n_us_power
Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive of the International AP – Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, …
By RAPHAEL G. SATTER, Associated Press Writer Raphael G. Satter, Associated Press Writer – Tue Sep 15, 11:12 am ET

LONDON – A weakened United States could start retreating from the world stage without help from its allies abroad, an international strategic affairs think tank said Tuesday.

The respected London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said President Barack Obama will increasingly have to turn to others for help dealing with the world's problems — in part because he has no alternative.

"Domestically Obama may have campaigned on the theme 'yes we can'; internationally he may increasingly have to argue 'no we can't'," the institute said in its annual review of world affairs.

The report said the U.S. struggles against insurgent groups in Iraq and Afghanistan had exposed the limits of the country's military muscle, while the near-collapse of the world financial markets sapped the economic base on which that muscle relied.


The report also claimed that the U.S. had lost traction in its efforts to contain Iran's nuclear program and bring peace to the Middle East.

"Clearly the U.S. share of 'global power,' however measured, is in decline," the report said.

The head of another respected London think tank, Robin Niblett of Chatham House, said the rise in the relative power of China, India, Russia and the European Union has made it harder for the U.S. to exercise its influence.

"America should apply changes in leadership style, but I wouldn't overplay the decline because decline is relative," said Niblett — who was not involved in drawing up Tuesday's report. "One should not doubt that the U.S. remains the most powerful nation in the world, but it's difficult to use the power and to use it to influence others."

In addition to a rise in regional powers, Niblett said the U.S. has long been viewed as being part of the problem rather than the solution on many issues — including climate change, the financial crisis, and the failure of the Middle East peace process.

"It's also carrying the baggage of failed policies and of a failed financial approach," Niblett said, referring to the Bush administration. "There's a lot of catching up to be done."

The IISS report praised Obama, saying that he recognized there was only so much America could do "to impose its views on others."

After years of often thorny relationships between the U.S. and its allies during Bush's administration, Obama has talked of the need to work with other nations on such issues as the financial meltdown, climate change and nuclear proliferation.

"These are challenges that no single nation, no matter how powerful, can confront alone," Obama said in April after attending the G-20 summit in London.

"The United States must lead the way," he said. "But our best chance to solve these unprecedented problems comes from acting in concert with other nations."

The think tank's report said Obama could help restore the United States' standing by working with other nations to contain emerging threats to its position as the world's pre-eminent power. Controlling the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea would require help from regional allies, the report said. The same was true of Afghanistan, where the U.S. has had difficulty persuading its NATO partners to follow its lead in boosting the number of troops sent to fight a resurgent Taliban.

"In the next year or two, the greatest demand on U.S. talents and power will be to persuade more to become like minded and adopt greater burdens," the report said.

Niblett said Obama was moving in the right direction.

"This administration is far more frank about the U.S. interdependence with rest of the world, and that's a good thing," Niblett said.

___

Associated Press Writer Karolina Tagaris contributed to this report.
Philip
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Philip »

Obama's decision to abandon stationing ABMs in Europe is a radical departure form the agressive anti-Russian foreign policy of the Bush-Cheney "Corporation".While delighting the Russians with its pragmatism,it will earn Obama even more enemies at home,who were hoping to cash in on lucrative contracts for the same.The US Military-Defence Complex of which Eiisenhower spoke of,will be sorely dismayed,and if Obama further withdraws fronm Iraq and even Afghanistan,trouble is likely to be in store for him.We all know what happened to JFK who tried to wind down the Vietnam War and make peace with the Soviets .

This decision and the intent to build a new cooperative realtionship with Russia,now the world's largest exporter of oil and gas,would end Russian hostility to Europe,that was a result of the expansion of NATO to the boundaries of Russia,roping in ex-Warsaw Pact nations into its fold.If Obama also strikes a strategic arms reduction deal with Russia,it could be the most significant diplomatic event since the Nixon-Kissinger days of SALT and detente.
Barack Obama to abandon European missile-defence shield, say reportsDecision to abandoned missile-defence shield in Poland and Czech Republic, if confirmed, likely to delight Russia.
Luke Harding in Moscow and Ian Traynor in Brussels

Barack Obama has abandoned the US's controversial plan to build a missile-defence system in Europe in one of the sharpest breaks yet with the policies of the Bush administration, according to reports from Washington today.

In a move that, if confirmed, is likely to delight the Kremlin but unnerve Washington's eastern European allies, The Wall Street Journal said that the White House would not proceed with plans to site missile interceptors in Poland and a radar station in the Czech Republic. Russia had furiously opposed the project – claiming it targeted Moscow's nuclear arsenal.

During a visit to Moscow in July, Obama announced a 60-day review of the Pentagon's contentious missile defence plan. According to the Wall Street Journal, the findings, to be released next week, will conclude that Iran's long-range missile programme was progressing more slowly than previously thought. Citing US officials, the paper said the White House now believed Iran's short and medium-range missile programme posed a more potent and immediate danger.

This morning Czech media also reported that Obama had telephoned the Czech prime minister, Jan Fischer, within the past 24 hours to inform him he was shelving the missile defence plan.

Under the Bush administration, the Pentagon spent years planning and negotiating to place 10 silos with interceptor rockets in northern Poland and to build a large radar station south of Prague in order to defend against an alleged ballistic missile threat from Iran.

The central European countried were keen to acquire the US installations and other military hardware as partial security guarantees against a resurgent Russia. Moscow claimed the project was aimed against Russia and threatened to deploy short-range nuclear weapons in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad which sits inside the European Union.

Obama's apparent climbdown is likely to seen by Russia as a victory for its uncompromising stance on the shield.

Today, however, analysts pointed out the decision would help Obama secure Moscow's co-operation on a possible new sanctions package against Iran and would also further his desire to "reset" relations with Moscow, following a dismal period under the Bush administration.

It would also significantly boost the chances of a new treaty on strategic nuclear arms reduction between Washington and Moscow, they said. Both the US and Russia have agreed to come up with a successor treaty to START 1 by December, when the current agreement expires.

"Hardliners in Russia don't want an agreement on START. It will be very difficult now for Russia to avoid an agreement," Ruben Sergeyev, a defence analyst in Moscow said this morning. "It (the decision to drop the US shield) creates a very positive ambience, despite the fact it was really an artificial thing."

The decision also strengthens Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian president, who is due to make his first presidential trip to the US next week, to take part in the G20 meeting in Pittsburgh. The Obama administration has been keen to boost Medvedev's standing and authority at home, seeing him as a more moderate and less hostile interlocutor than Putin.

While the US decision will cheer many in government in western Europe who believed the missile shield project was an unnecessary provocation to the Russians, the decision is just the latest to alarm the east Europeans.

A few weeks ago in a cri de coeur to the Obama administration, several senior eastern European officials and public figures wrote a public letter to Obama complaining that their security interests were being ignored by the west in order to improve relations with Moscow.

The new Nato chief, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, in his first big speech, is to call tomorrow for a new relationship between the western military alliance and Russia, taking more account of Moscow's security and strategic interests.
Johann
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Johann »

cross posted from the Russian thread
Nothing comes for free. This move took place because Medvedev has publicly said it prepared to make some very significant changes in its Iran policy in exchange for this, and the Obama administration is keen to strengthen his influence over Putin's.

Russia very badly needs improved relations with the US & EU - although oil prices are recovering, that is not enough. Cheap credit was just as important to Russian growth as many other Western states, fuelling enormous commercial growth. In particular Russia needs tens of billions in FDI to keep oil production volumes from declining as older fields run dry, and most of all it needs FDI in order to meet Medvedev's plans for diversifying the economy away from natural resource exports and the volatility they bring.

Last week Medvedev openly contradicted his own foreign minister Lavrov and said that Russia would be willing to consider additional sanctions on Iran. That leaves China on the UNSC, but China is rarely willing act alone, and certainly not on behalf of Iran.

In addition the US wants Russia to step back from sales of missiles to Iran (such as the S-300 SAM/ABM system), as well as sales of services and goods by Russian engineers and firms to Iranian missile development programmes.

This is a win-win deal for the US, the EU big 3 and Russia, because they all get something they wanted. The important thing is that it is shifting the focus from Europe to Iran, which was the primary concern.

Given the massive downsizing of Russian conventional forces going on right now, and its more gradual nuclear downsizing, EU and CAR efforts to bypass Russia on energy supplies, it seems unlikely that either the more aggressive Kremlin types or the more fearful Eastern European types will think for long that this deal means Russia is being handed back any kind of exclusive sphere of influence.
Sanjay M
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Sanjay M »

The Atlanticists are truly bummed that self-styled JFK-heir Obama is giving them the shaft:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/wor ... le1292073/

These Mouse-That-Roared types are going to have to learn that they don't have the political clout to monopolize US foreign policy goals. They've had their day, now they're going to have to go back to being underfoot.
Philip
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Philip »

Is the US hooked on War? The article is a scathing indictment of the military-industrial complex which has reduced govts. of the day into rubber stamps to approve wars.Orwell was a true prophet.

http://survivalstation.org/blog/is-amer ... -6247.html
Is America Hooked on War?
Tom Engelhardt
Campaign For Liberty
Thursday, Sept 17th, 2009

“War is peace” was one of the memorable slogans on the facade of the Ministry of Truth, Minitrue in “Newspeak,” the language invented by George Orwell in 1948 for his dystopian novel 1984. Some 60 years later, a quarter-century after Orwell’s imagined future bit the dust, the phrase is, in a number of ways, eerily applicable to the United States.

Last week, for instance, a New York Times front-page story by Eric Schmitt and David Sanger was headlined “Obama Is Facing Doubts in Party on Afghanistan, Troop Buildup at Issue.” It offered a modern version of journalistic Newspeak.

“Doubts,” of course, imply dissent, and in fact just the week before there had been a major break in Washington’s ranks, though not among Democrats. The conservative columnist George Will wrote a piece offering blunt advice to the Obama administration, summed up in its headline: “Time to Get Out of Afghanistan.” In our age of political and audience fragmentation and polarization, think of this as the Afghan version of Vietnam’s Cronkite moment.

The Times report on those Democratic doubts, on the other hand, represented a more typical Washington moment. Ignored, for instance, was Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold’s end-of-August call for the president to develop an Afghan withdrawal timetable. The focus of the piece was instead an upcoming speech by Michigan Senator Carl Levin, chairman of the Armed Services Committee. He was, Schmitt and Sanger reported, planning to push back against well-placed leaks (in the Times, among other places) indicating that war commander General Stanley McChrystal was urging the president to commit 15,000 to 45,000 more American troops to the Afghan War.

Here, according to the two reporters, was the gist of Levin’s message about what everyone agrees is a “deteriorating” U.S. position: “[H]e was against sending more American combat troops to Afghanistan until the United States speeded up the training and equipping of more Afghan security forces.”

Think of this as the line in the sand within the Democratic Party, and be assured that the debates within the halls of power over McChrystal’s troop requests and Levin’s proposal are likely to be fierce this fall. Thought about for a moment, however, both positions can be summed up with the same word: More.

The essence of this “debate” comes down to: More of them versus more of us (and keep in mind that more of them — an expanded training program for the Afghan National Army — actually means more of “us” in the form of extra trainers and advisors). In other words, however contentious the disputes in Washington, however dismally the public now views the war, however much the president’s war coalition might threaten to crack open, the only choices will be between more and more.

No alternatives are likely to get a real hearing. Few alternative policy proposals even exist because alternatives that don’t fit with “more” have ceased to be part of Washington’s war culture. No serious thought, effort, or investment goes into them. Clearly referring to Will’s column, one of the unnamed “senior officials” who swarm through our major newspapers made the administration’s position clear, saying sardonically, according to the Washington Post, “I don’t anticipate that the briefing books for the [administration] principals on these debates over the next weeks and months will be filled with submissions from opinion columnists… I do anticipate they will be filled with vigorous discussion… of how successful we’ve been to date.”

State of War

Because the United States does not look like a militarized country, it’s hard for Americans to grasp that Washington is a war capital, that the United States is a war state, that it garrisons much of the planet, and that the norm for us is to be at war somewhere at any moment. Similarly, we’ve become used to the idea that, when various forms of force (or threats of force) don’t work, our response, as in Afghanistan, is to recalibrate and apply some alternate version of the same under a new or rebranded name — the hot one now being “counterinsurgency” or COIN — in a marginally different manner. When it comes to war, as well as preparations for war, more is now generally the order of the day.

This wasn’t always the case. The early Republic that the most hawkish conservatives love to cite was a land whose leaders looked with suspicion on the very idea of a standing army. They would have viewed our hundreds of global garrisons, our vast network of spies, agents, Special Forces teams, surveillance operatives, interrogators, rent-a-guns, and mercenary corporations, as well as our staggering Pentagon budget and the constant future-war gaming and planning that accompanies it, with genuine horror.

The question is: What kind of country do we actually live in when the so-called U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) lists 16 intelligence services ranging from Air Force Intelligence, the Central Intelligence Agency, and the Defense Intelligence Agency to the National Reconnaissance Office and the National Security Agency? What could “intelligence” mean once spread over 16 sizeable, bureaucratic, often competing outfits with a cumulative 2009 budget estimated at more than $55 billion (a startling percentage of which is controlled by the Pentagon)? What exactly is so intelligent about all that? And why does no one think it even mildly strange or in any way out of the ordinary?

What does it mean when the most military-obsessed administration in our history, which, year after year, submitted ever more bloated Pentagon budgets to Congress, is succeeded by one headed by a president who ran, at least partially, on an antiwar platform, and who has now submitted an even larger Pentagon budget? What does this tell you about Washington and about the viability of non-militarized alternatives to the path George W. Bush took? What does it mean when the new administration, surveying nearly eight years and two wars’ worth of disasters, decides to expand the U.S. Armed Forces rather than shrink the U.S. global mission?

What kind of a world do we inhabit when, with an official unemployment rate of 9.7% and an underemployment rate of 16.8%, the American taxpayer is financing the building of a three-story, exceedingly permanent-looking $17 million troop barracks at Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan? This, in turn, is part of a taxpayer-funded $220 million upgrade of the base that includes new “water treatment plants, headquarters buildings, fuel farms, and power generating plants.” And what about the U.S. air base built at Balad, north of Baghdad, that now has 15 bus routes, two fire stations, two water treatment plants, two sewage treatment plants, two power plants, a water bottling plant, and the requisite set of fast-food outlets, PXes, and so on, as well as air traffic levels sometimes compared to those at Chicago’s O’Hare International?

What kind of American world are we living in when a plan to withdraw most U.S. troops from Iraq involves the removal of more than 1.5 million pieces of equipment? Or in which the possibility of withdrawal leads the Pentagon to issue nearly billion-dollar contracts (new ones!) to increase the number of private security contractors in that country?

What do you make of a world in which the U.S. has robot assassins in the skies over its war zones, 24/7, and the “pilots” who control them from thousands of miles away are ready on a moment’s notice to launch missiles — “Hellfire” missiles at that — into Pashtun peasant villages in the wild, mountainous borderlands of Pakistan and Afghanistan? What does it mean when American pilots can be at war “in” Afghanistan, 9 to 5, by remote control, while their bodies remain at a base outside Las Vegas and then can head home past a sign that warns them to drive carefully because this is “the most dangerous part of your day”?

What does it mean when, for our security and future safety, the Pentagon funds the wildest ideas imaginable for developing high-tech weapons systems, many of which sound as if they came straight out of the pages of sci-fi novels? Take, for example, Boeing’s advanced coordinated system of hand-held drones, robots, sensors, and other battlefield surveillance equipment slated for seven Army brigades within the next two years at a cost of $2 billion and for the full Army by 2025; or the Next Generation Bomber, an advanced “platform” slated for 2018; or a truly futuristic bomber, “a suborbital semi-spacecraft able to move at hypersonic speed along the edge of the atmosphere,” for 2035? What does it mean about our world when those people in our government peering deepest into a blue-skies future are planning ways to send armed “platforms” up into those skies and kill more than a quarter century from now?

And do you ever wonder about this: If such weaponry is being endlessly developed for our safety and security, and that of our children and grandchildren, why is it that one of our most successful businesses involves the sale of the same weaponry to other countries? Few Americans are comfortable thinking about this, which may explain why global-arms-trade pieces don’t tend to make it onto the front pages of our newspapers. Recently, the Times Pentagon correspondent Thom Shanker, for instance, wrote a piece on the subject which appeared inside the paper on a quiet Labor Day. “Despite Slump, U.S. Role as Top Arms Supplier Grows” was the headline. Perhaps Shanker, too, felt uncomfortable with his subject, because he included the following generic description: “In the highly competitive global arms market, nations vie for both profit and political influence through weapons sales, in particular to developing nations…” The figures he cited from a new congressional study of that “highly competitive” market told a different story: The U.S., with $37.8 billion in arms sales (up $12.4 billion from 2007), controlled 68.4% of the global arms market in 2008. Highly competitively speaking, Italy came “a distant second” with $3.7 billion. In sales to “developing nations,” the U.S. inked $29.6 billion in weapons agreements or 70.1% of the market. Russia was a vanishingly distant second at $3.3 billion or 7.8% of the market. In other words, with 70% of the market, the U.S. actually has what, in any other field, would qualify as a monopoly position — in this case, in things that go boom in the night. With the American car industry in a ditch, it seems that this (along with Hollywood films that go boom in the night) is what we now do best, as befits a war, if not warrior, state. Is that an American accomplishment you’re comfortable with?

On the day I’m writing this piece, “Names of the Dead,” a feature which appears almost daily in my hometown newspaper, records the death of an Army private from DeKalb, Illinois, in Afghanistan. Among the spare facts offered: he was 20 years old, which means he was probably born not long before the First Gulf War was launched in 1990 by President George H.W. Bush. If you include that war, which never really ended — low-level U.S. military actions against Saddam Hussein’s regime continued until the invasion of 2003 — as well as U.S. actions in the former Yugoslavia and Somalia, not to speak of the steady warfare underway since November 2001, in his short life, there was hardly a moment in which the U.S. wasn’t engaged in military operations somewhere on the planet (invariably thousands of miles from home). If that private left a one-year-old baby behind in the States, and you believe the statements of various military officials, that child could pass her tenth birthday before the war in which her father died comes to an end. Given the record of these last years, and the present military talk about being better prepared for “the next war,” she could reach 2025, the age when she, too, might join the military without ever spending a warless day. Is that the future you had in mind?

Consider this: War is now the American way, even if peace is what most Americans experience while their proxies fight in distant lands. Any serious alternative to war, which means our “security,” is increasingly inconceivable. In Orwellian terms then, war is indeed peace in the United States and peace, war.

American Newspeak

Newspeak, as Orwell imagined it, was an ever more constricted form of English that would, sooner or later, make “all other modes of thought impossible. It was intended,” he wrote in an appendix to his novel, “that when Newspeak had been adopted once and for all and Oldspeak forgotten, a heretical thought… should be literally unthinkable.”

When it comes to war (and peace), we live in a world of American Newspeak in which alternatives to a state of war are not only ever more unacceptable, but ever harder to imagine. If war is now our permanent situation, in good Orwellian fashion it has also been sundered from a set of words that once accompanied it.

It lacks, for instance, “victory.” After all, when was the last time the U.S. actually won a war (unless you include our “victories” over small countries incapable of defending themselves like the tiny Caribbean Island of Grenada in 1983 or powerless Panama in 1989)? The smashing “victory” over Saddam Hussein in the First Gulf War only led to a stop-and-start conflict now almost two decades old that has proved a catastrophe. Keep heading backward through the Vietnam and Korean Wars and the last time the U.S. military was truly victorious was in 1945.

But achieving victory no longer seems to matter. War American-style is now conceptually unending, as are preparations for it. When George W. Bush proclaimed a Global War on Terror (aka World War IV), conceived as a “generational struggle” like the Cold War, he caught a certain American reality. In a sense, the ongoing war system can’t absorb victory. Any such endpoint might indeed prove to be a kind of defeat.

No longer has war anything to do with the taking of territory either, or even with direct conquest. War is increasingly a state of being, not a process with a beginning, an end, and an actual geography.

Similarly drained of its traditional meaning has been the word “security” — though it has moved from a state of being (secure) to an eternal, immensely profitable process whose endpoint is unachievable. If we ever decided we were either secure enough, or more willing to live without the unreachable idea of total security, the American way of war and the national security state would lose much of their meaning. In other words, in our world, security is insecurity.

As for “peace,” war’s companion and theoretical opposite, though still used in official speeches, it, too, has been emptied of meaning and all but discredited. Appropriately enough, diplomacy, that part of government which classically would have been associated with peace, or at least with the pursuit of the goals of war by other means, has been dwarfed by, subordinated to, or even subsumed by the Pentagon. In recent years, the U.S. military with its vast funds has taken over, or encroached upon, a range of activities that once would have been left to an underfunded State Department, especially humanitarian aid operations, foreign aid, and what’s now called nation-building. (On this subject, check out Stephen Glain’s recent essay, “The American Leviathan” in the Nation magazine.)

Diplomacy itself has been militarized and, like our country, is now hidden behind massive fortifications, and has been placed under Lord-of-the-Flies-style guard. The State Department’s embassies are now bunkers and military-style headquarters for the prosecution of war policies; its officials, when enough of them can be found, are now sent out into the provinces in war zones to do “civilian” things.

And peace itself? Simply put, there’s no money in it. Of the nearly trillion dollars the U.S. invests in war and war-related activities, nothing goes to peace. No money, no effort, no thought. The very idea that there might be peaceful alternatives to endless war is so discredited that it’s left to utopians, bleeding hearts, and feathered doves. As in Orwell’s Newspeak, while “peace” remains with us, it’s largely been shorn of its possibilities. No longer the opposite of war, it’s just a rhetorical flourish embedded, like one of our reporters, in Warspeak.

What a world might be like in which we began not just to withdraw our troops from one war to fight another, but to seriously scale down the American global mission, close those hundreds of bases — recently, there were almost 300 of them, macro to micro, in Iraq alone — and bring our military home is beyond imagining. To discuss such obviously absurd possibilities makes you an apostate to America’s true religion and addiction, which is force. However much it might seem that most of us are peaceably watching our TV sets or computer screens or iPhones, we Americans are also — always — marching as to war. We may not all bother to attend the church of our new religion, but we all tithe. We all partake. In this sense, we live peaceably in a state of war.
Sanjay M
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Sanjay M »

US Scraps Missile Defence Initiative:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8264028.stm

Note that Iran's Shahab-3 can reach Inida:

Image
Gerard
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Gerard »

Interview with Zbigniew Brzezinski

What about the way we informed our allies of our decision?
...
To the Poles, that is something very painful. And since they misconstrued—and I emphasize the word “misconstrue”—that the missile shield somehow strengthened their relationship with the U.S. when it comes to Russia, it was immediately suggestive of the notion of a sellout. It’s the wrong conclusion, but in politics, even wrong conclusions have to be anticipated.

How aggressive can Obama be in insisting to the Israelis that a military strike might be in America’s worst interest?We are not exactly impotent little babies. They have to fly over our airspace in Iraq. Are we just going to sit there and watch?

What if they fly over anyway?Well, we have to be serious about denying them that right. That means a denial where you aren’t just saying it. If they fly over, you go up and confront them. They have the choice of turning back or not. No one wishes for this but it could be a Liberty in reverse.
Sanjay M
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Sanjay M »

Hey Rahm! I seriously don't think that the Israelis would try to overfly US forces in Iraq, but would instead use submarine-launched cruise missiles to blast Iran.

Israel's military advantage over regional rivals has been on the downslide in recent years, but they tend to use unorthodox methods, so they may strike through a route that nobody is looking at. If everybody assumes it'll be an airstike that overflies Iraqi airspace, they'll let everyone continue to believe that, and in the meantime they'll prepare some other route.

I think they'd most prefer to have the US whack Iran for them.
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Hari Seldon »

OK. the cowering dhoti SDRE in moi daydreams of having someone else (Israel + unkil) do our dirty work (taking out TSPian nukes) for their own ends (Since TSP-Iran N pgms are closely linked)....but yeah, smell the coffee time is back
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Philip »

"Muslims mass-producing children to take over Africa, says (NIgerian)Archbishop"

This outburst from the new Archbishop of Nigeria is bound to inflame certain sections of the continent and beyond,but is what he is saying a fact? We could then see a population race between rival faiths apart from the arms race which will spell doom for planet earth,or rather mankind,as sustainability of our planet's fast dwindling resources has yet to succeed.
Muslims mass-producing children to take over Africa, says ArchbishopRuth Gledhill, Religion Correspondent
Last edited by Gerard on 22 Sep 2009 05:05, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: edited - copyright
Johann
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Johann »

Sanjay M wrote:Hey Rahm! I seriously don't think that the Israelis would try to overfly US forces in Iraq, but would instead use submarine-launched cruise missiles to blast Iran.

Israel's military advantage over regional rivals has been on the downslide in recent years, but they tend to use unorthodox methods, so they may strike through a route that nobody is looking at. If everybody assumes it'll be an airstike that overflies Iraqi airspace, they'll let everyone continue to believe that, and in the meantime they'll prepare some other route.
The Israelis *very* publicly had one of the dolphin class submarines transit from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea through the Suez Canal in exercises this past June, with surface combatants following in July.

The message was clear - Israel has a naval option when it comes to the Iranian nuclear issue, and it has the backing of Egypt, and behind Egypt, Saudi Arabia in utilising it.
Sanjay M
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Sanjay M »

Robert Gates: Overhaul the Pentagon
Every secdef talks about changing the Pentagon, then almost immediately gets stymied by bureaucratic resistance. Only this time, Gates' talk is turning into action—a Gates Doctrine, if you will. Its core tenets: Base policy on the wars that are most likely to happen and the technology that's most likely to work. Stop trying to buy the future when you can't afford the present. With a White House veteran's feel for Washington, a love of policy, a penchant for secrecy, and an old man's sense of the ticking clock, the silver-haired administrator has become the most dangerous person in the military-industrial complex. "I've referred to myself as the secretary of war, because we're at war," he says in a nasal Kansas twang, raising his voice over the roar of the plane's engines. "This is a department that principally plans for war. It's not organized to wage war. And that's what I'm trying to fix."
Sanjay M
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Sanjay M »

Another Atlanticist henchman faces the consequences of his deeds catching up with him:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8271341.stm
Vivek_A
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Vivek_A »

At UN, Gaddafi drops K-bomb

WASHINGTON: Libya’s maverick leader Muammar Gaddafi tossed a minor diplomatic grenade at New Delhi from the United Nations podium, saying Kashmir should be an independent buffer state between India and Pakistan.

In an exhausting 90-minute speech Gaddafi spoke about the political and diplomatic history of the world in the last half century in his first ever appearance at the UN.

Most of Gaddafi’s rant was aimed at US and the western world, although he did not spare others, including the UN Security Council. At one point, he even blamed India and Japan for robbing Somalia of its fishing wealth, forcing Somalis to take up piracy.

Gaddafi reeled off the various excesses of the big powers, calling for reform of the security council. “It should not be called the Security Council, it should be called the ‘terror council’,” he said.
Philip
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Philip »

Poor Gordonius Brownus.Caesar Barrackus Obama is treating him like Gordonius Brutus! While the Carthaginian Col.Ghad-daffy Muammarus beams like a Carthaginian cat that has swallowed the cream,after his loyal tribesman Megrahi-al-Lockerbie was released by Gordonius Brutus,Caesar Barrackus refusing to meet him at a convivial meeting of old allies no less than 5 times,and finally meeting him in a dingy kitchen,has sent Brownus Brutus to legendary Lunt fort,better known these days as Coventry. The Ides of September are for Brutus Brownus not one to remember!
Barack Obama rebuffs Gordon Brown as 'special relationship' sinks to new low
Gordon Brown has been snubbed repeatedly by Barack Obama during his trip to the United States, as the fall-out from the release of the Lockerbie bomber appeared to have left "the special relationship" at its lowest ebb for nearly 20 years.

By Andrew Porter, Political Editor in New York
Published: 11:49PM BST 23 Sep 2009

It was disclosed earlier this week that Mr Brown would not hold bilateral talks with Mr Obama, despite the President hosting individual meetings with the leaders of Japan, China and Russia. Photo: GETTY IMAGES
British officials made five attempts to secure official talks with the US President and even agreed to a policy change in an attempt to land a joint appearance between the two leaders, said diplomatic sources.

But the White House rebuffed the offers and Mr Brown, who had hoped to increase his popularity by appearing on his own with Mr Obama, had to settle instead for a snatched conversation with the President in a New York kitchen.

The setbacks led to fears that relations between Downing Street and the White House were at their lowest point since John Major's frosty dealings with Bill Clinton.

It was disclosed earlier this week that Mr Brown would not hold bilateral talks with Mr Obama, despite the President hosting individual meetings with the leaders of Japan, China and Russia. Downing Street claimed that this was not unusual.

However, a British diplomat told The Daily Telegraph that the White House's refusal to meet Mr Brown had been a serious embarrassment for the Prime Minister.

"It is wrong for people to say that we have been relaxed about the way things have gone," the source said. "There were five attempts to set up a meeting and none have come off."

The most striking example of Downing Street's desperation to engineer a meeting was a change of policy on supplying swine flu vaccines to Africa. It aimed to match America's commitment and was announced last week. As a result, it had been hoped that Mr Obama would agree to a joint press conference, according to a senior source. However, the meeting never happened.

The White House said that Mr Brown and Mr Obama would chair a meeting tonight about Pakistan, and would "spend all day Friday together." However, Friday's meeting in Pittsburgh involves the full G20 group of world leaders.

The release of the Lockerbie bomber, Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed al Megrahi, appears to have been behind the new chill in relations between Washington and London.

Mr Obama expressed his dismay at the release in a telephone call with the Prime Minister earlier this month. Downing Street's original account of the conversation failed to refer to the President's anger.

Mr Brown has maintained that freeing the Libyan was a matter entirely for the Scottish executive.

Nearly 200 Americans died when Pan Am flight 103 was blown up over Scotland in 1988. Yesterday, families of victims protested at the UN in New York where Mr Brown and Libya's leader, Col Muammar Gaddafi, made speeches.

Last night Downing Street played down suggestions of a rift with the White House and pointed to an informal discussion that Mr Brown had with Mr Obama after a climate change dinner at the UN on Tuesday night. The 15-minute "walk and chat" took place in a kitchen of the UN headquarters as both men left the building in Manhattan.

No 10 maintained that there was nothing unusual in the Prime Minister not holding a separate "bilateral" meeting with the President. There was little doubt that Mr Brown would have relished a high profile meeting with Mr Obama.

In a speech to the United Nations, Mr Obama said the world must "move in a new direction" and "embrace a new era of engagement". That was seen as a sign that the President was more likely to place emphasis on relations with a wide range of countries rather than rely on old alliances. Mr Brown's increasingly poor relationship with the White House contrasts sharply with that of his predecessor Tony Blair, who enjoyed close friendships with both Mr Clinton and George W Bush.

John Major’s Tory government had difficulty with Mr Clinton, however, because of claims that Mr Major had tried to help George Bush Snr’s re-election campaign in 1992 by allowing researchers to dig into Mr Clinton’s student past at Oxford – something Sir John has always denied.

Mr Brown, whose plans for a lunchtime speech to the United Nations were derailed after Col Gaddafi spoke for 96 minutes, faced attacks on several fronts yesterday.

Kathy Tedeschi and Sue Kosmowski, Americans who lost husbands in the Lockerbie bombing, travelled to New York to protest outside the UN headquarters. They claimed that Mr Brown had put trade interests ahead of justice for victims families.

The Prime Minister was also accused of trying to appease Iran by ignoring the supression of opposition in order to safeguard talks on its nuclear programme.

Shirin Ebadi, Iran’s only Nobel Peace Prize winner, said the West cared more about its own security than human rights.

Mr Brown was criticised for failing to stay at a dinner where he was honoured as Statesman of the Year. Guests paid $1,000 to attend the function attended by, among others, Henry Kissinger and the pop star Bono.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstop ... w-low.html
Sanjay M
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Sanjay M »

Heh - All the Way With JFK, baby! :lol:
Barack behaves like his Celtic ancestor by cold-shouldering the Brits.

Brits can't survive without Anglo-American closeness and warmth.

The last best US-UK ties in my memory were BushSr and John Major, and before that Reagan-Thatcher.
Blair's relationship with Dubya was more like being a lapdog.

Gordon Brown, as the Brussels/Atlanticist-favoured replacement for Blair, is just another lefty Unmanlymohan Singh type, as shown by his release of the Lockerbie bomber.
Let the b*st*rd stew in his own juices.

Meanwhile, the Tories have long been as marginalized as the US Republicans, but are potentially on the road to comeback, once the Brit masses tire of Labour's antics. I don't know what will be the last straw for the public over there, but you can be sure that Labour will stoop to finding out.
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Sanjay M »

Kadhafi calls for 'NATO of the south' at Venezuela summit

Kaddafi has been shooting off his mouth a lot, now that he's gotten his plane-bombing friend freed.

Has India lost its leadership position among nations of the south, now that its economic ties with the developed world have been progressing due to liberalization? It looks increasingly like the Kaddafis and Chavez's will be there to fill the vacuum.
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by rsingh »

I think whole episode of missile shield in Poland was just an operation to create leverage out of thin air and Russia took the bait. Just few announcements and Russia gave up on Iran. Sorry to say but this time Russia gave up so much for so little.
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Philip »

Fascinating! The Russians always maintained that they had discovered Hitler's body and conducted several tests to make sure,even confirming that the corpse discovered badly burned in the bunker area had only one testicle .Remember the ditty sung to the tune of Col.Bogey?

"Hitler,had only one big b*ll,Goering had two that were quite small,Himller had something similar,but poor old Goebells had no B*lls at all!"
Adolf Hitler suicide story questioned after tests reveal skull is a woman's

Adolf Hitler's suicide in his Berlin bunker has been called into question after American researchers claimed that a bullet-punctured skull fragment long believed to belong to the Nazi dictator is, in fact, that of an unknown woman.

By Andrew Osborn in Moscow
Published: 7:00AM BST 28 Sep 2009

Adolf Hitler's suicide in a bunker has been called into question.
The four-inch skull fragment has a hole where a bullet reportedly passed through Hitler’s left temple when he shot himself and is kept in Russia’s federal archives along with what are said to be his jawbones. Together, they are all that is left of Hitler’s body, the charred remains of which Soviet forces first recovered in 1945. For years, the Russians have held up the artefacts as proof that Soviet troops found Hitler’s body in the ruins of Berlin and that he died on April 30 when he shot himself just after taking cyanide.

But a History Channel documentary programme broadcast in the US called Hitler’s Escape claims the skull fragment belongs to a woman under 40 and not Hitler, who was 56 when he died. It quotes Nick Bellantoni, an archaeologist and bone specialist who took DNA samples from the skull in Moscow and had them tested at the University of Connecticut. He and his colleagues are sceptical that the skull fragment could belong to Eva Braun, Hitler’s long-time companion, since she is thought to have committed suicide by cyanide rather than with a gun.

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The findings are likely to revive conspiracy theories suggesting that Hitler did not die in 1945 but survived and fled to South America or elsewhere. Proponents of that theory believe Soviet troops found only his body double.

However, the Russians have never held up the skull as exhibit one, always insisting that the jawbones — said to be in perfect condition - are confirmation. Soviet forces tracked down an assistant to Hitler’s dentist in 1945 who confirmed their authenticity. The contested skull fragment was found later, in 1946, when the Russians began an investigation after rumours that Hitler was still alive. It was found in the same hole outside Hitler’s bunker where his body was first found.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstop ... omans.html
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by svinayak »

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/com ... 5015.story

Twilight of Pax Americana
Since the end of WWII, the world has depended on the United States for stability. But with American military and economic dominance waning, capitalism and global security are threatened.

By Christopher Layne and Benjamin Schwarz
September 29, 2009

The international order that emerged after World War II has rightly been termed the Pax Americana; it's a Washington-led arrangement that has maintained political stability and promoted an open global economic system. Today, however, the Pax Americana is withering, thanks to what the National Intelligence Council in a recent report described as a "global shift in relative wealth and economic power without precedent in modern history" -- a shift that has accelerated enormously as a result of the economic crisis of 2007-2009.

At the heart of this geopolitical sea change is China's robust economic growth. Not because Beijing will necessarily threaten American interests but because a newly powerful China by necessity means a relative decline in American power, the very foundation of the postwar international order. These developments remind us that changes in the global balance of power can be sudden and discontinuous rather than gradual and evolutionary.

The Great Recession isn't the cause of Washington's ebbing relative power. But it has quickened trends that already had been eating away at the edifice of U.S. economic supremacy. Looking ahead, the health of the U.S. economy is threatened by a gathering fiscal storm: exploding federal deficits that could ignite runaway inflation and undermine the dollar. To avoid these perils, the U.S. will face wrenching choices.

The Obama administration and the Federal Reserve have adopted policies that have dramatically increased boththe supply of dollars circulating in the U.S. economy and the federal budget deficit, which both the Brookings Institution and the Congressional Budget Office estimate will exceed $1 trillion every year for at least the next decade. In the short run, these policies were no doubt necessary; nevertheless, in the long term, they will almost certainly boomerang. Add that to the persistent U.S. current account deficit, the enormous unfunded liabilities for entitlement programs and the cost of two ongoing wars, and you can see that America's long-term fiscal stability is in jeopardy. As the CBO says: "Even if the recovery occurs as projected and stimulus bill is allowed to expire, the country will face the highest debt/GDP ratio in 50 years and an increasingly unsustainable and urgent fiscal problem." This spells trouble ahead for the dollar.

The financial privileges conferred on the U.S. by the dollar's unchallenged reserve currency status -- its role as the primary form of payment for international trade and financial transactions -- have underpinned the preeminent geopolitical role of the United States in international politics since the end of World War II. But already the shadow of the coming fiscal crisis has prompted its main creditors, China and Japan, to worry that in coming years the dollar will depreciate in value. China has been increasingly vocal in calling for the dollar's replacement by a new reserve currency. And Yukio Hatoyama, Japan's new prime minister, favors Asian economic integration and a single Asian currency as substitutes for eroding U.S. financial and economic power.

Going forward, to defend the dollar, Washington will need to control inflation through some combination of budget cuts, tax increases and interest rate hikes. Given that the last two options would choke off renewed growth, the least unpalatable choice is to reduce federal spending. This will mean radically scaling back defense expenditures, because discretionary nondefense spending accounts for only about 20% of annual federal outlays. This in turn will mean a radical diminution of America's overseas military commitments, transforming both geopolitics and the international economy.

Since 1945, the Pax Americana has made international economic interdependence and globalization possible. Whereas all states benefit absolutely in an open international economy, some states benefit more than others. In the normal course of world politics, the relative distribution of power, not the pursuit of absolute economic gains, is a country's principal concern, and this discourages economic interdependence. In their efforts to ensure a distribution of power in their favor and at the expense of their actual or potential rivals, states pursue autarkic policies -- those designed to maximize national self-sufficiency -- practicing capitalism only within their borders or among countries in a trading bloc.

Thus a truly global economy is extraordinarily difficult to achieve. Historically, the only way to secure international integration and interdependence has been for a dominant power to guarantee the security of other states so that they need not pursue autarkic policies or form trading blocs to improve their relative positions. This suspension of international politics through hegemony has been the fundamental aim of U.S. foreign policy since the 1940s. The U.S. has assumed the responsibility for maintaining geopolitical stability in Europe, East Asia and the Persian Gulf, and for keeping open the lines of communication through which world trade moves. Since the Cold War's end, the U.S. has sought to preserve its hegemony by possessing a margin of military superiority so vast that it can keep any would-be great power pliant and protected.

Financially, the U.S. has been responsible for managing the global economy by acting as the market and lender of last resort. But as President Obama acknowledged at the London G-20 meeting in April, the U.S. is no longer able to play this role, and the world increasingly is looking to China (and India and other emerging market states) to be the locomotives of global recovery.



Going forward, the fiscal crisis will mean that Washington cannot discharge its military functions as a hegemon either, because it can no longer maintain the power edge that has allowed it to keep the ambitions of the emerging great powers in check. The entire fabric of world order that the United States established after 1945 -- the Pax Americana -- rested on the foundation of U.S. military and economic preponderance. Remove the foundation and the structure crumbles. The decline of American power means the end of U.S. dominance in world politics and the beginning of the transition to a new constellation of world powers.

The result will be profound changes in world politics. Emerging powers will seek to establish spheres of influence, control lines of communication, engage in arms races and compete for control over key natural resources. As America's decline results in the retraction of the U.S. military role in key regions, rivalries among emerging powers are bound to heat up. Already, China and India are competing for influence in Central and Southeast Asia, the Middle East and the Indian Ocean. Even today, when the United States is still acting as East Asia's regional pacifier, the smoldering security competition between China and Japan is pushing Japan cautiously to engage in the very kind of "re-nationalization" of its security policy that the U.S. regional presence is supposed to prevent. While still wedded to its alliance with the U.S., in recent years Tokyo has become increasingly anxious that, as a Rand Corp. study put it, eventually it "might face a threat against which the United States would not prove a reliable ally." Consequently, Japan is moving toward dropping Article 9 of its American-imposed Constitution (which imposes severe constraints on Japan's military), building up its forces and quietly pondering the possibility of becoming a nuclear power.

Although the weakening of the Pax Americana will not cause international trade and capital flows to come to a grinding halt, in coming years we can expect states to adopt openly competitive economic policies as they are forced to jockey for power and advantage in an increasingly competitive security and economic environment. The world economy will thereby more closely resemble that of the 1930s than the free-trade system of the post-1945 Pax Americana. The coming end of the Pax Americana heralds a crisis for capitalism.

The coming era of de-globalization will be defined by rising nationalism and mercantilism, geopolitical instability and great power competition. In other words, having enjoyed a long holiday from history under the Pax Americana, international politics will be headed back to the future.

Christopher Layne is a professor of government at Texas A&M and a consultant to the National Intelligence Council. Benjamin Schwarz is literary and national editor of the Atlantic.
Rahul M
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Rahul M »

http://www.indianexpress.com/storyOld.php?storyId=79278

Vietnam as India’s force multiplier
Vietnam as India’s force multiplier
..............
BY cultivating a resolute Vietnam as a close regional ally and security partner in the manner China has done Pakistan, India can pay Beijing back in the same coin.

China has strategically discomfited India and sought to ‘‘contain’’ it to south Asia by arming Pakistan with nuclear weapons and missiles. Militarily to focus on Pakistan — the Chinese cat’s paw — as India has done is unwise. The cat can be more effectively dealt with by enabling Vietnam — a smaller but spirited tomcat — to rise militarily as a consequential state in China’s immediate neighbourhood.

In the short term, this should reasonably be the prime Indian strategic objective.

An opportunity will arise on October 3, when a defence delegation led by Lt General Nguyen Thinh, head of the Vietnamese Defence Research Centre — the counterpart of India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation — begins its Indian trip. General Thinh is expected to ask for Indian help and technical assistance in acquiring a missile production capability.

The problem is the Vietnamese want the Brahmos cruise missile, with which they promise to keep the Chinese Navy on the defensive in the South China Sea and the approaches to the Malacca Straits. This is an esteemable mission. The Indian government, acting sensibly, should help Vietnam achieve it.

But the Brahmos, entering production stage, will have to be first inducted in goodly numbers in the Indian order-of-battle before a surplus can be generated for friendly states. And, in any case, technology transfer may be infeasible, at least initially.

BUT there is the proven short-range Prithvi missile, with impressive accuracy, that India can part with because, with the family of Agni missiles in the fray, it has become redundant.

The Prithvi in the arsenal highlights the Indian nuclear deterrent’s limited reach and clout and is something of an embarrassment. And deployed on the western border with Pakistan, it is destabilising. It can be give to the Vietnamese without in any way weakening the country’s security.
..................

The writer is professor, Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi
Sanjay M
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Sanjay M »

But everyone has always pointed out that Prithvi is no rival to Agni, since Prithvi has always meant to be short-range, cheaper, more mobile and more accurate (better CEP), while Agni is larger, more expensive, less mobile, longer-range and less accurate. They are different classes of missile (SRBM vs IRBM)

So why then claim Prithvi is an "embarrassment", etc?
Otherwise, all SRBMs can be called "embarrassing" in comparison to IRBMs.

I think that India should give Prithivis and also a few Brahmos to Vietnam immediately, to show China some tit-for-tat after their rampant proliferation to Pakistan, and also to show the USA that their MTCR games should have been fairer to us, instead of discriminatory.

We should give these things to Vietnam in exchange for the right to make port calls at Camranh Bay, which is one of the most perfect natural harbours in the world. My father got to visit this beautiful place when he was stationed in North Vietnam as part of the Indian contingent of UN peacekeeping forces. It would be good if our submarine fleet could operate out of there.
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Johann »

Vietnam's relationship with China isn't anything like India's relationship with Pakistan, or even Bangladesh.

You can see that from the way the PLA is deployed, and the scenarios for which they seriously train.

The closest analogy I can think of is India and Sri Lanka - mutual wariness, some bad blood in the past, some disagreements, but overall a bilateral tone of cooperation rather than confrontation. Underlying everything is a common civilisation, and a common political system.

What really ties China down militarily is Taiwan and Japan, and the threat of US intervention on their behalf.

The greatest possible boost to Chinese power would come from a clear withdrawal of the US from Taiwanese and Japanese defence against China.
Sanjay M
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Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Sanjay M »

The US has no reason to withdraw its forces from Japan. Although perhaps a DPJ govt might give more voice to the contentious issue of US bases in Japan, I don't think they'll cross the line.

As for Taiwan, they're practically headed for reunification anyway. The ruling KMT can't keep the opposition locked up in jail forever - that's why they tried to introduce democracy in the first place. It's only now that they've found democracy to be unmanageable, given the democratic opposition's tendency to rock Taiwan's small boat, and have had to jail them again. So in the Kaangress style, the KMT will try to muddle their way toward reunification and the fruits held out by China, in order to keep the political opposition at bay.

Vietnam's main tension with China is over the land border, and also over the Spratley islands. I think that if we give them Prithvi and Brahmos, then we can keep the Chinese on their toes, as well as the Americans. We can make them feel our relevance. By making them feel our relevance, then they won't take us lightly, or tread on our interests so cavalierly.

We need to make sure that IndoChina has at least as much Indo as China.
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