India-China News and Discussion

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 14 Sep 2009 11:34

B.Raman's excellent analysis about the current Sino-Indian "tension" and what we should do to quieten matters,change our hostile attitude towards China...and all will be well,reminds me of another famous figure from history who did exactly that in the run-up to WW2.His name was Neville Chamberlain.While Hitler adopted a military policy of "Blitzkreig",crushing the British and the French with his thrust through the low countries outflanking the Maginot Line,the British and the French instead embarked upon a policy of "Sitzkrieg",from 1939-1940.

The Phoney War did lull many French and British citizens into a false sense of complacency, thinking the Germans would not prove to have the mettle to invade the vaunted Maginot Line.

Dear Mr.Raman,after his visit to the Middle Kingdom,seems enraptured about its peaceful intentions and has demonstrated that he prefers India to adopt a policy of "Sitzkreig" in the face of a probable Chinese "Blitzkreig"!

arunsrinivasan · Post by **arunsrinivasan** » 14 Sep 2009 12:35

I always thought B. Raman was a hawk, so am very surprised by his article. If he were to say, we should be on our guard against China, but not give into "media hysteria" that is at least acceptable. But to say we should not give into "media hysteria" without any kind of push back against China, is very hard to digest especially considering all the signals coming out of China recently, e.g. ADB spat, stopping Security Council resolutions on TSP terrorists, news reports about dismembering India in official newspapers etc. etc. Would Mr. Raman or someone who understand his thinking care to comment?

Bheem · Post by **Bheem** » 14 Sep 2009 13:28

I think before we start of day dreaming about actually fighting Chinese, we should take some basic steps like banning Chinese in power, telecom, petrochemical, pipleline, railway contracts etc.

Stan_Savljevic · Post by **Stan_Savljevic** » 14 Sep 2009 17:23

China Starts Backing India's North-East Rebels

For several months, this has been matter of intense speculation. As India developed its "strategic relationship" with the USA, it upset China so much that our northern neighbour started planning revenge action. After all, China feels the US is using India to encircle it strategically. There has been some stray reports of ULFA leaders meeting Chinese intelligence officials since the beginning of 2008 - but they were never confirmed. Now confirmation has been received of two meetings that ULFA commander in chief Paresh Barua, Manipur PLA chairman Irengbam Bhorot and All Tripura Tiger Force chairman Ranjit Debbarma had with senior Chinese military intelligence officials this year. Following which some guerrilla fighters of ULFA and PLA have left for China 's Yunnan province for training.

Paresh Barua, ULFA C-in-C first flew to Kumming in Yunnan province from Dhaka and had two meetings with Chinese Military intelligence officials between 13-17 February this year. Then he flew into Beijing from Bangkok on 23rd May and was in the Chinese capital for four days. On both occasions, he was received by one Colonel of the Second Department of the Chinese Peoples Liberation Army General Staff ( that is the Military Intelligence Directorate) who introduced himself as Xiu Rongji (but could well be pseudonym). During his trip to Beijing, Barua was taken to The "Second Department" head office, which is located at No. 21, North Andeli Street, Beijing, The place is heavily guarded but has no signboards.

Barua was accompanied by Irengbam Bhorot, chairman of PLA (Manipur). The chief of Chinese Military Intelligence Department, one Lieutenant General Guangkhai gave them audience on two occassions. The Chinese general encouraged the Northeastern rebel leaders to regroup and step up recruitment and not be weighed down by current losses and setbacks; he also promised to train new recruits and provide latest weaponry. He told the Northeastern rebel leaders that India will never do justice to the smaller nationalities because they were never Indians but were colonised by the British and handed over to India after 1947. He also denounced India as an “US lackey” and said it is no longer an independent country.

General Guangkhai’s argument sounds similar to the one in the controversial article of the website www.chinaiiss.org , which is the website of the the Institute for International Strategic Studies that is the research wing of the Second Department. This research institute is no independent think tank but its job is to produce for military intelligence an internal classified publication MOVEMENTS OF FOREIGN ARMIES [WAI JUN DONGTAI]. This is published every 10 days and transmitted to units at the division level.

Following the parleys between the Northeastern rebel leaders , a total of 78 ULFA and PLA rebels have left for China in three batches in June 2009 – some flew into Kumming via Nepal and Bangladesh using false passports while a group of 36 started a trek from Khonsa around 8-10 June to reach Yunnan via North Kachin Hills of Burma. These rebels are now undergoing indoctrination (brain washing) before they are put to rigorous guerrilla warfare training. The ATTF may send a smaller batch of recruits later for training in the next few months. The toughest of the guerrillas went through the Khonsa-Kachin route because they have been tasked to explore a viable land route to ensure the safe return of the trained rebels and also a safe route to bring in large consignments of weapons.

These rebels are housed in a huge sprawling camp in Tinsum county of Yunnan province - not far from the quarters of the former leaders of Burmese Communist Party, who were settled by the Chinese in that area after the BCP broke up due to factional infighting and China stopped helping them after it developed direct state-to-state relations with Burma's military regime.

It is anybody’s guess what kind of training these rebels are receiving from China but general intelligence assessment suggests they would receive extensive training in (a) guerrilla warfare (b) explosives (c) espionage (d) select assassination (e) computer and electronics communication, Though these rebels will primarily operate against Indian security forces in the Northeast, some of them may be used by the Chinese to attack important Tibetan exile leaders in Indian territory. They may do this in coordination with already-infiltrated Chinese agents operating in India.

http://subirbhowmikscolumn.blogspot.com ... -east.html

Stan_Savljevic · Post by **Stan_Savljevic** » 14 Sep 2009 17:25

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_BQweeEHc34E/S ... er+map.gif
The area where there are incursions etc, admins please delete if not kosher.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 14 Sep 2009 19:48

Confirmation in the media of what I had said regarding Indian intel co-operation with china, some time ago.

China reaches out to India

Nevertheless, there are signs that China is now seeking India's cooperation to counter the Uighur "problem". China sees the Uighur revolt as "terrorism", while the Uighurs themselves believe they are pursuing a 'freedom movement' against Chinese occupation. The irony is that China follows Pakistan's lead in describing militancy in Kashmir as a "freedom struggle", while much of the world describes it as "terrorism". China's unwillingness to condemn terrorist activities perpetrated against India has not been taken kindly by India.

Not surprisingly, then, India's security experts are distrustful of China's motives and hesitant to share secret intelligence with China.

Pakistan has so far failed to provide meaningful intelligence to China on the activities of the ETIM, let alone weed out elements of the organisation ensconced in Pakistan's inaccessible East Waziristan region.

Frustrated with Pakistan's response, China is now turning to India. But Indian intelligence is ill-equipped to provide first-hand information about ETIM's activities in East Waziristan region. China, a newcomer to India's long battle against terrorism, has recently encouraged contacts between its own and India's counter-terrorism units to exchange intelligence on terrorism. A bilateral Indian-Chinese counter-terrorism group has also been set up to exchange experiences and intelligence, as well as carry out joint counter-terrorism exercises.

While such exchanges could be beneficial for China, Indian strategists doubt that the intelligence provided by China will be of much value. It seems that the cooperation will be a one-sided affair, benefiting China alone, rather than creating a 'win-win' situation for both sides.

kshirin · Post by **kshirin** » 14 Sep 2009 20:53

I too saw a snippet on Stratfor referring to an Intel meeting between Indian and Chinese agencies on Uighur.

Sudden pushback on China - US action in WTO and announcement will meet Dalai Lama. Interesting.

DELETED.

Posting complete news items without links violates copyright. also, reduced font size
posts are not acceptable. this has been requested to you at least half a dozen times.

kshirin · Post by **kshirin** » 14 Sep 2009 22:24

I am worried. Last time this happened, I mean China's annoyance with the Dalai Lama, whom the Chinese accused of being behind the unrest in Tibet, and this time their paranoia may induce them to link the imposition of duties by the US on Chinese tyres, with us, we got hit by terrorists several times in rapidf succession in different Indian cities and in Kabul. I am sure there was a link as a Chinese person had expressed his country's fury on the Tibetan/Dalai Lama link. They really think he is agitating against them, and it may be a self fulfilling prophecy, because he is getting a little impatient in his old age isn't he?

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 14 Sep 2009 22:54

RayC wrote:And why is China so jittery over it, apart from delusive bunkum like South Tibet?!

Perhaps the delusive bunkum is critical to long term Chinese existence, I suspect that China needs many types of delusive bunkum's to keep it together and "ownership" of Tibet and it use is a crucial victory for a people which have been brutalized successively for over 200 years in a way we Indians cant even start imagining.

Perhaps it is core to the success of CPC and the Red China and the pillar holding China together, a bit like India for the British empire?

I propose the above in all seriousness, however that discussion should be best done in the strat thread.

Tamang · Post by **Tamang** » 15 Sep 2009 00:52

ITBP jawans injured in China border shootout

jaladipc · Post by **jaladipc** » 15 Sep 2009 01:16

Is is suggestive to gather signatures of citizens from all over the nation and then submit them to PM to take necessary actions to prevent any other misadventure?

Definitely we gotta have to wake up these people who are in deep sleep covering themself with thick blankets of gandhi`s.
lets start pulling the strings over.

Jai Hind.

James B · Post by **James B** » 15 Sep 2009 03:28

Looks like Mr. Raman got good dose of abuse from the nationalists.

INDIA-CHINA: The Frozen Vision of 1962

2. On September 8, 2009, worried by the likely consequences of the mounting anti-China demonisation campaign indulged in by some members of our community of strategic analysts, I wrote an article titled " India-China: Dangerous Hysteria", which is available at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers ... r3398.html.

3.I was amazed and disturbed by the kind of vituperative mail I got from many Indian readers of my article. All sorts of abuses were hurled at me----" senile", "confused", " a dunce", " bought over by the Chinese" etc etc. The comments of the strategic analysts, which triggered off my article, and the vituperative mail, which I received in response to my article, only confirmed my fears that large sections of our civil society and strategic analysts' community continue to be caught in the mental quagmire of 1962 and are unable to rid themselves of the frozen vision of 1962. They are not prepared to look at China through glasses of 2009.

Rishirishi · Post by **Rishirishi** » 15 Sep 2009 03:39

I just returned from China. Here are some observations.

1
The export industry is hit, but the demand is being filled by huge government spending on infrastructure.

2
China is going to face a HUGE ageing problem, thanks to the one child policy. Set in motion in 79, has started to hit the workforce. But the greatest impact will be felt in the next 15 years.

3
Chinease government is in deep shit. People have been told and expect the miracle to continue. But in reality the "miracle" contains a huge buble, with lot of unefficient government enterprises and huge number of bad debt. Sooner or later the world will demand a reduction on Chinas huge trade surplus, something wich will hit China bad.

4
A war or some kind og divertion of focus can become tempting. War skimrish with India is a dangerous possiblity.

5
Internet has a HUGE impact and the government can't longer control the flow of information.

6
BR was one of the very few sites that are blocked. They have opened CNN, BBC, Pakistani defence sites and even many ***** sites

But BR is not accesable.

pgbhat · Post by **pgbhat** » 15 Sep 2009 03:45

I guess BR is accessible from china but onlee for liu-uddin.

.....
Rishirishi some pics would be nice......"China from an Indian Eyes".... thread may be.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 15 Sep 2009 03:50

Rishirishi wrote:
BR was one of the very few sites that are blocked. They have opened CNN, BBC, Pakistani defence sites and even many ***** sites But BR is not accesable.

Can the BR be cloned with different URL and also in chinese and still pass thru the censor of PRC govt

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 15 Sep 2009 04:06

See what you all BRF jings have done. You have poked Raman-garu so much that he is upset, and angry too. ...

CHINA'S STRATEGIC INTRUSIONS IN INDIA'S NEIGHBOURHOOD
B.RAMAN

"The Chinese long-term strategy with regard to India has many facets. The trans-border developments are only one---but the most important--- component of their strategy. There are other components---namely, strengthening their relationship with Pakistan in order to confront India with the danger of a two-front war should it try to change militarily the status quo either in respect of China or in respect of Pakistan with regard to Jammu & Kashmir; giving Pakistan a nuclear and missile capability for threatening India; weakening the Indian influence in the rest of South Asia and strengthening their presence and influence in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal; creating a presence for their Navy in the Indian Ocean region and opposing India's attempts to emerge as an Asian power on par with China. Till recently, we had no well thought-out long-term strategy with regard to China----neither in the border region, nor in South Asia nor in the Indian Ocean region. Only recently the initial rudiments of such a strategy have been appearing. Our attempts to strengthen our strategic relationship with the US and Japan is one such building-block of this comprehensive strategy. Our proactive Indian Ocean policy is another building block. But we find ourselves handicapped in further developing such a comprehensive strategy because we have let our influence be weakened in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal. "

---From my article of September 8,2009, titled "India-China: Dangerous Hysteria" available at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers ... r3398.html

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Despite all the abusive mails and comments that I have been getting and to which I am used over my article deploring the hysteria that is being created by some of our strategic analysts and the media over the trans-border developments, I am not unduly concerned over the reports of continuing Chinese troop intrusions into Indian territory. These intrusions were initially confined to the Eastern sector and now are being reported from other sectors too.

2. When a border is not demarcated on the ground and when there is no common understanding between the two sides as to what constitutes the line of actual control due to the Chinese reluctance to exchange with us maps indicating their understanding of the LAC, such intrusions are bound to take place from both sides. Such intrusions used to be a recurring feature across the India-Myanmar border before the two countries demarcated the border except in the trijunction areas to the north and the south. Such intrusions were also a normal feature across the Sino-Myanmar border in the Northern Shan State and the Kachin State before the Sino-Myanmar border was demarcated in the 1970s except in the northern trijunction where the borders of India, China and Myanmar meet, which remains undetermined and undemarcated till today.

3.What I would be worried about is any illegal occupation by the Chinese of territory claimed by them either in the Arunachal Pradesh or in the Ladakh sector. The 1962 war occurred not because the Government of India ignored reports of intrusions, which are instances of trespass, but because it ignored and played down intelligence reports of illegal occupation of Indian territory by the Chinese in sectors such as Aksai Chin in Ladakh and their incorporating them into Chinese territory. It is our failure and reluctance to counter such outrageous instances of illegal occupation of Indian territory which inexorably led to 1962.

4.The Chinese used to have the habit of illegally occupying territory claimed by them if they had an opportunity of doing so, They did it in Indian territory before 1962. They did it in Myanmar in the late 1960s.They did it with regard to the Philippines when they quietly occupied in 1995 the South China sea island of Mischief Reef, which the Philippines claimed as its territory. After the furore caused by their illegal occupation of the Mischief Reef, I am not aware of any further instance of illegal occupation of foreign territory by the Chinese. If there is, I would be happy to stand corrected.

5. I have stated this many times before and I state this again that the Chinese would continue to stall the border talks with India by even not exchanging maps on the LAC till the Dalai Lama dies. They are not satisfied that that they have pacified Tibet once and for all. The Lhasa uprising of March 2008 has created fresh doubts in their mind about the prospects for continued political stability in Tibet. They are determined to impose on the Tibetans a successor to His Holiness, when he dies, chosen by the Communist Party of China. They do fear that there will be opposition to their nominee from the Tibetans and that this could lead to disturbances in Tibet, in which the Tibetan Youth Congress (TYC) will play an important part. They want to keep a pressure point which they can use against India in order to make it control the TYC. A continuing dispute with India over Arunachal Pradesh will, in their calculation, help them in dealing with any-post Dalai Lama instability. It has been my assessment that the border talks will show some movement for the better or for the worse only after the death of His Holiness and not before.

6. The question for our policy-makers is whether we facilitate the Chinese game of stalling till His Holiness dies or whether we insist on a settlement here and now and if so, what are the options that could be explored. It was in that context that I suggested that we explore the possibility of a status quo plus solution under which in return for the Chinese accepting the status quo in Arunachal Pradesh, we could consider accommodating some of their interests in Tawang, about which they seem to be doing a song and dance. I was amazed by a flood of mails accusing me of suggesting that we hand over Tawang to the Chinese. Where have I said so?

7. What are the Chinese interests in Tawang? Nobody knows for certain. I have asked many retired military officers whether Tawang would have any military significance for the Chinese. They said no. The Chinese themselves have cited what they consider as the historic and religious links of Tawang with Tibet. They even claim that there are records to show that the residents of Tawang paid their taxes to the set-up of the Dalai Lama in Lhasa and not to the British Government in New Delhi. They have not made a similar claim regarding the rest of Arunachal Pradesh. They have also pointed out that one of the previous Dalai Lamas was born in Tawang. The Singapore Foreign Minister, who had recently visited Lhasa, has been quoted as saying that the Chinese are worried that after the death of His Holiness, his followers might proclaim a child of Tawang as the incarnation of His Holiness. If that is so, they should try to get hold of Tawang before His Holiness dies instead of waiting till his death.

8. I have been suggesting to many think tanks in India that instead of getting hysterical over Tawang, we must do a detailed research, analysis and assessment of the Chinese obsession with Tawang. Nobody has done so till now.

9. In a commentary on the observations of the Singapore Foreign Minister contributed to the South Asia Analysis Group (www.southasiaanalysis.org), Brig.Subash Kapila, a fine military intelligence officer with whom I had the pleasure and privilege of being associated, has raised a very important question: the Chinese did not show the same obsession with Tawang in the past as they seem to be doing now. He has pointed out that the Chinese even withdrew from Tawang in 1962 after having occupied it. If Tawang was that important to them, they should not have withdrawn from there. Why did they do so?

10. The answer is simple. Long after they withdrew from Tawang, sections of the US media carried reports, based on interviews with the Tibetan Khampas, that the Khampa revolt in the 1950s against the Chinese occupation of Tibet was orchestrated by the USA's Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and India's Intelligence Bureau then headed by the legendary B.N.Mullick. One does not know whether these claims or allegations were correct, but the Chinese presumed that they were. The fact that after the failure of the Khampa revolt, His Holiness and his entourage made a dash for Tawang has added to the strength of the Chinese presumption. The Chinese fear that if there is a joint attempt by the Indian and US intelligence to destabilise Tibet after His Holiness, that attempt could be directed from Tawang. .

11. I am not a military expert. But I have spent nearly three decades in the intelligence profession. From whatever little I know of the craft of intelligence, I could say that if there is one place on the Indo-Tibetan border from where a covert action to destabilise Tibet can be mounted with some success that is Tawang. I am, therefore, not surprised that the Indian presence in Tawang gives them the creeps. When I suggested a status quo plus formula what I had in mind was an Indian guarantee that New Delhi would not allow Tawang to be used to destabilise Tibet after the death of His Holiness in return for a Chinese acceptance of the status quo in Arunachal Pradesh, including Tawang. I do not know whether this will work with the Chinese, but it is worth trying.

12. I am not unduly worried over the continuing reports of Chinese troop intrusions. We are fortunate in having a competent, professional army, which is capable of taking care of them. There is no need for a hysteria over the intrusions. I am more worried about the diplomatic,economic and strategic intrusions which the Chinese are quietly making in our neighbourhood and the inability of our diplomacy to counter them. What are those strategic Chinese intrusions around us in our neighbourhood?

The winning of the contract for the second stage of the Hambantota port development project in Sri Lanka.
The winning of the contract for the Colombo-Kalutara road in Sri Lanka.
The winning of the contract for the improvement of the Kyaukpu port on the Arakan coast of Myanmar.
The winning of the permission from the military junta of Myanmar for the construction of two pipelines---one for gas and the other for oil--- from Kyaukpu to Yunnan.These pipelines will carry not only gas and oil produced locally but also brought by Chinese tankers from West Asia and Africa. We claim to have great influence over the junta in Myanmar.It has reportedly agreed to sell to China gas found by a consortium of which an Indian public sector company was a member. After millions of rupees of Indian investment, gas is struck and the Myanmar junta sells that gas to the Chinese. We watch it sucking our thumbs.
The reported furtive negotiations with the Government of Bangladesh for a pipeline to carry gas from Bangladesh to Yunnan via the Arakan area of Myanmar.
The proposal for a railway line from Gwadar on the Mekran coast of Pakistan to Xinjiang for which a feasibility study was ordered by the Pakistan Government two weeks ago.
Talks with the Pakistani and the Iranian authorities for a gas pipeline to take Iranian gas to Xinjiang.
13. What contracts of strategic significance India has won in our neighbourhood? Zilch/
14. What progress India has made in strengthening its strategic presence in its neighbourhood? Zilch.

15. How effective Indian strategic and economic diplomacy has been in our neighbourhood? Zilch.

16. It is time to be worried and howling over the way China has made strategic inroads in our neighbourhood and over the failure of our diplomacy to counter it.

17. Our Army can take care of China. Can our diplomats take care of China? ( 14-9-09)

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 15 Sep 2009 04:35

Not convincing, the next Dalai Lama could be from Khushhalnagar. So are they going down the road to Karnataka?

At least my contention that the Chinese are maneuvering now to influence the post-Dalai dialogue may perhaps be correct. I wonder what the test results were from the time DL checked into AIIMS.

Ultimately one needs to question China's motives, I don't see anything compelling-or is it India that is selectively doing the press leaks to build public consensus? Does China even know what game Delhi is playing??

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 15 Sep 2009 05:23

Rishirishi wrote: 4
A war or some kind og divertion of focus can become tempting. War skimrish with India is a dangerous possiblity.

5
Internet has a HUGE impact and the government can't longer control the flow of information.

6
BR was one of the very few sites that are blocked. They have opened CNN, BBC, Pakistani defence sites and even many ***** sites But BR is not accesable.

Thanks for that update. So the late Ms Liu was posting from outside China?

Those three points does not auger well for ordinary Indian or Chinese people who want to talk to each other.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 15 Sep 2009 06:41

More likely Mrs(?) Liu has especial dispensation to visit forbidden sites.

And all this time I thought BRF was a big 'timepass'-if I had only known it gets up the Chinese nose, I would have been less.....circumspect.

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 15 Sep 2009 07:24

Tamang wrote:ITBP jawans injured in China border shootout

I hope media is not playing usual tricks here! If true it is a serious development and would streatch our armed forces further. We are not ready for this yet IMO. GoI needs to pour cold water on this and get on with quitely building infrastructure and deploying trained manpower to NE. No need to drum-up every little step (reactivating a new ALG, or deploying a division or new fighter aircrafts squad) every other week. Media can create a frenzy prematurly which would have its own inertia towards the trouble. We should stonewall till we have more of a level playing ground in terms of overall war fighting capabilities.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 15 Sep 2009 07:41

hnair wrote:
Rishirishi wrote: 4
A war or some kind og divertion of focus can become tempting. War skimrish with India is a dangerous possiblity.

5
Internet has a HUGE impact and the government can't longer control the flow of information.

6
BR was one of the very few sites that are blocked. They have opened CNN, BBC, Pakistani defence sites and even many ***** sites But BR is not accesable.
Thanks for that update. So the late Ms Liu was posting from outside China?

Those three points does not auger well for ordinary Indian or Chinese people who want to talk to each other.

just for the record, our chinese posters post from mainland china IPs.
these aren't even IPs of proxy servers AFAIK. you can guess what that means !

AnimeshP · Post by **AnimeshP** » 15 Sep 2009 08:07

Rahul M wrote:
hnair wrote:
Thanks for that update. So the late Ms Liu was posting from outside China?

Those three points does not auger well for ordinary Indian or Chinese people who want to talk to each other.
just for the record, our chinese posters post from mainland china IPs.
these aren't even IPs of proxy servers AFAIK. you can guess what that means !

Too bad we didn't see a photo of "the blogger go to office to blog about beautiful home in China"

Hari · Post by **Hari** » 15 Sep 2009 10:30

Came across an article in People's daily

How do India's middle school textbooks portray China?

http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90782/6745967.html

Karna_A · Post by **Karna_A** » 15 Sep 2009 10:54

11. I am not a military expert. But I have spent nearly three decades in the intelligence profession. From whatever little I know of the craft of intelligence, I could say that if there is one place on the Indo-Tibetan border from where a covert action to destabilise Tibet can be mounted with some success that is Tawang. I am, therefore, not surprised that the Indian presence in Tawang gives them the creeps. When I suggested a status quo plus formula what I had in mind was an Indian guarantee that New Delhi would not allow Tawang to be used to destabilise Tibet after the death of His Holiness in return for a Chinese acceptance of the status quo in Arunachal Pradesh, including Tawang. I do not know whether this will work with the Chinese, but it is worth trying.

Status Quo Plus Formula should be as below: In the above formula only India gives, without China giving anything useful.

(a) Indian guarantee that New Delhi would not allow Tawang to be used to destabilise Tibet after the death of His Holiness.
(b) Chinese gurantee that none of Tibetan rivers would be diverted through a new Water Treaty.
(c) Allow 30% Tibetan(from Tibet) civilian employees in Tawang's district administration as Tawang has some Tibetan linkages including birth of a past Dalai lama including soft border between Tibet and Tawang.
(c) The area equivalent to Tawang around Mansarovar lake and Mount Kailash to have 30% reciprocal Indian civilan employees as Mansarovar has past linkages to Indian God including soft border between Mansarovar and Uttranchal.
http://www.monterosa-nepal.com/tibet/images/map.gif

Strategically Mansarovar lake control is way more important to India than Tawang. Indus, Sutlej, Ganga and Brahamputra all come from Mansarovar and without these rivers North India would turn into Thar desert. If India gives part control of Tawang, it should get part control of Mansarovar and Mount Kailash.
Tawang has real strategic value for China, but almost none for India. Mansarovar has real strategic value for India, almost none for China.

RayC · Post by **RayC** » 15 Sep 2009 11:30

Brig.Subash Kapila, a fine military intelligence officer

B Raman is waffling. He is on the backfoot.

Brig Kapila is from the Bihar Regt and not an Intelligence Officer.

Pandering half-cocked info!

No wonder our Intelligence is so poor! RAW! Totally raw.

arunsrinivasan · Post by **arunsrinivasan** » 15 Sep 2009 12:17

I was amazed and disturbed by the kind of vituperative mail I got from many Indian readers of my article. All sorts of abuses were hurled at me----" senile", "confused", " a dunce", " bought over by the Chinese" etc etc. The comments of the strategic analysts, which triggered off my article, and the vituperative mail, which I received in response to my article, only confirmed my fears that large sections of our civil society and strategic analysts' community continue to be caught in the mental quagmire of 1962 and are unable to rid themselves of the frozen vision of 1962. They are not prepared to look at China through glasses of 2009.

With all due respects to Mr. Raman, most complaints are coming through "glasses of 2009", just a sample - PRC throwing tantrums in ADB, blocking Security Council Resolutions w.r.t Mumbai attacks. Which part these incidents are driven by "mental quagmire of 1962"?

rgsrini · Post by **rgsrini** » 15 Sep 2009 19:17

arunsrinivasan wrote:With all due respects to Mr. Raman, most complaints are coming through "glasses of 2009", just a sample - PRC throwing tantrums in ADB, blocking Security Council Resolutions w.r.t Mumbai attacks. Which part these incidents are driven by "mental quagmire of 1962"?

Also, don't forget the last minute backstabbing at NSG meeting in Vienna during the Nuke deal. Also, I am not sure what Raman has to say w.r.t china continuing to arm our beloved neighbour including with the Nuke bomb, missiles, fighter jets etc well after 1962. The public may be wearing the "glasses of 1962", but Mr.Raman appears to be wearing "blinders with a matching pair of ear muffs".

arunsrinivasan · Post by **arunsrinivasan** » 15 Sep 2009 20:12

rgsrini wrote:
arunsrinivasan wrote:With all due respects to Mr. Raman, most complaints are coming through "glasses of 2009", just a sample - PRC throwing tantrums in ADB, blocking Security Council Resolutions w.r.t Mumbai attacks. Which part these incidents are driven by "mental quagmire of 1962"?
Also, don't forget the last minute backstabbing at NSG meeting in Vienna during the Nuke deal. Also, I am not sure what Raman has to say w.r.t china continuing to arm our beloved neighbour including with the Nuke bomb, missiles, fighter jets etc well after 1962. The public may be wearing the "glasses of 1962", but Mr.Raman appears to be wearing "blinders with a matching pair of ear muffs".

Agreed, the list goes on, doesnt it? That is why it is all the more surprising to hear Raman talk about "mental quagmire of 1962". While I dont agree with abusing Mr. Raman, unless we are missing something here, which I very much doubt, he is clearly mistaken. I think he owes us all a big explanation.

arunsrinivasan · Post by **arunsrinivasan** » 15 Sep 2009 20:17

Edited......

AnimeshP · Post by **AnimeshP** » 15 Sep 2009 20:30

RayC wrote:
Brig.Subash Kapila, a fine military intelligence officer
B Raman is waffling. He is on the backfoot.

Brig Kapila is from the Bihar Regt and not an Intelligence Officer.

Pandering half-cocked info!

No wonder our Intelligence is so poor! RAW! Totally raw.

RayC sir ... could it be possible that while Brig Kapila got commissioned into Bihar regt but later moved to MI ?

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 15 Sep 2009 20:34

It is good time to settle border row: China

kshirin · Post by **kshirin** » 15 Sep 2009 20:47

kshirin wrote:I too saw a snippet on Stratfor referring to an Intel meeting between Indian and Chinese agencies on Uighur.

Sudden pushback on China - US action in WTO and announcement will meet Dalai Lama. Interesting.

DELETED.

Posting complete news items without links violates copyright. also, reduced font size
posts are not acceptable. this has been requested to you at least half a dozen times.

To Forum Moderator,

Sorry about that, I was digging out articles on China and thought the 3 events - DL in US, DL in Arunachal, customs duties by US on Chinese tyres, would be of interest as China tends to link such isolated news items together. I hadnt saved the urls on my computer so just copied the whole thing. Will not do it again. But what is this about reduced fonts? I didn't get it. Grateful explain so I avoid doing that.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 15 Sep 2009 21:09

But it avoided a direct reply to a one of TNN’s questions: What is China doing to reassure India that it has no military ambitions on Arunachal Pradesh and other places along the border?

Sources in the Indian foreign ministry said Beijing was anxious about the uproar in the Indian media as it will make it all the more difficult for the two sides to enter into an amicable settlement. They do not think the central government in Beijing would have sent instructions to armed forces to create trouble on the border.

From the TOI article. Does te GOI work on the side off prudence/ caution or is it simply assuming that after warding 5 major wars in the last 60 years, our dear Northern and Western neighbours are just not capable of thinking of such?

I find it amusing China issuing Warnings about what the Dalai Lama does to foreign Govts or where he visits..but the spinelessness of SMK s comments rankles. Whats so big about warning China that India's position on Tibet may change with it's behaviour? Whats the big deal telling them we're considering Mansarover and Kailash as part of Indian territory and forcing Google to do an ==?

When will we have calibre people who understand the simple psychology of deflecting pressure? I am not even asking that we tell/ warn them about naval blockades around Malacca and kinds. But there is no strategy at all in place. India and Indians deserve better leadership than this.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 15 Sep 2009 21:26

kshirin wrote: To Forum Moderator,

Sorry about that, I was digging out articles on China and thought the 3 events - DL in US, DL in Arunachal, customs duties by US on Chinese tyres, would be of interest as China tends to link such isolated news items together. I hadnt saved the urls on my computer so just copied the whole thing. Will not do it again. But what is this about reduced fonts? I didn't get it. Grateful explain so I avoid doing that.

Two points here :

> copyright
kindly do post the link of any news item, that's absolutely mandatory. from the news item itself only snippets may be posted so as to be on the safe side of fair use clauses.

> small font
I noticed that whenever you quote someone's post or paste a news item that part comes out
in smaller font than the standard, which is a bit hard on the eyes. your own typed replies don't have this problem.
perhaps you have some feature in your browser that reduces the fontsize of any copied item ?

just check during posting that there is no tag like [size=85..copied article[/size] in your posts.
if there is, delete the size tags.
also, for quoting someones post or posting a news item use the quote option button (in case of quoting someone's post) and the quote tags for news items.

if you have problems please ask around in the forum feedback thread in mil forum.
thanks and regards.

Yudhajit · Post by **Yudhajit** » 15 Sep 2009 21:37

Katare wrote:It is good time to settle border row: China

To be read as - It is a good time to go to war, with India being softened up enough through all kinds of slow but steady blows over the years including, but not limited to - delays in military procurements, insurgencies, growth of regional chauvinism, lack of strong nationalistic leadership, etc.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 15 Sep 2009 22:11

I dont understand the need to propose a solution while India has a lesser hand? Why this urge to have peace in our time? This has been the bane of Indian leadership. JLN said that they were tired and wanted and early out for the British. Yet he lived 17 years after that and like a banyan tree bnever allowed anything to develop and left us with a vacuum.

I don't see the point of saying that Tawang is the place for launching covert ops from India.

Total self goals.

Rishirishi · Post by **Rishirishi** » 15 Sep 2009 22:23

just for the record, our chinese posters post from mainland china IPs.
these aren't even IPs of proxy servers AFAIK. you can guess what that means

That confirms what I have been claiming all along. 2-3 years ago most international news sites were blocked, but now they have practically opened every site, BR being the only one I could not acess. (I did not try to acess Falung gong etc).

It is very simple to acess BR if you want to (via proxy servers), but that is besides the point.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 15 Sep 2009 22:28

Is BR returned as a Google search result for "India Defence" from within PRC? If it is discoverable, people can use the proxy servers to access it.

kshirin · Post by **kshirin** » 15 Sep 2009 22:29

Thanks Rahul ji, I will try to improve my computer literacy skills, I used to reduce the font because I wanted to take up less space, but will try to follow these rules.

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 15 Sep 2009 22:37

Rahul-M-saar, so there IS a bunker filled with charlies in pyjamas, surfing the web?

Wish I had that job, for I dont run the risk of being called "a loser" and yet "officially" surf for naughty pictures of Bolly/Kolly/Tolly nymphettes.

I think we are being a bit harsh on Shree Raman. He is probably playing the role of an emotional tampon for the non-PLA chinese policy circles (university types outside PLA). These folks might not want to lose everything they achieved in China because of some idiocy by PLA and the increasingly hair-trigger responses the Indian civil society is expressing nowadays. For a slow moving democratic society, Indian civil society seems to be going on full alert against the Chinese military really fast, while their allegeldy disciplined masses are being gradually lured into a bourgeois/petty-bourgeois lull. Gone are the days of Yindguo-Zhongguo bhai-bhai. And they know it.

Shree Raman might be in a role that the WKK played against Pakistan. Someone has to do that.