Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 17 Sep 2009 10:11

I've always suspected that vajpayee and all those scientists at the crater formed by the blast were at the FBF S2 "Taj Mahal" site and not at the "White House" S1 Site.

Here is confirmation of this.
The virtually undamaged White house TN test site.

The S2 FBF site. This is where all the netas went for the photo op.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 17 Sep 2009 10:15

Yes indeed the FBF worked as expected and fusion failed.

How many MIRV can the Agni-5 carry with 25kT yeald/weight , onleee 3 ?

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 17 Sep 2009 10:16

Arun_S wrote:The 25 kT he is talking is the S1 weapon as it is was tested.

But Arun, he specifically mentions fission bomb yield as 25KT.. Is it a copy-editing error?

http://beta.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/article21311.ece

The fission bomb yield from the DRDO’s seismic instrumentation was 25 +2 kiloton and left a crater 25 metres in diameter. If the TN device had really worked with a yield of 50 +2 kt, it should have left a crater almost 70 metres in diameter. Instead, all that happened was that sand and mud from the shaft were thrown several metres into the air and then fell back, forming a small depression in the shaft mouth. There was no crater.

geeth · Post by **geeth** » 17 Sep 2009 10:23

>>>Instead, all that happened was that sand and mud from the shaft were thrown several metres into the air and then fell back, forming a small depression in the shaft mouth. There was no crater.

Boss, I don't understand this part...

If the mud and sand was thrown several metres into the air with a fizzle, you mean it would have vented had the full yield been achieved??? Or am I not getting the point?

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 17 Sep 2009 10:30

The shaft and the A winch that was not destroyed?

vina · Post by **vina** » 17 Sep 2009 10:33

All this hush-hush "oh so secret" business is incredibly stupid. Who the hell were they fooling ?. Only the Indian public. The guys for whom the message was really intended always knew better because of their "seismic" ears to the ground. The basic and fundamental requirement is to be brutally honest with ourselves . DRDO (in their long list of projects like IGMDP) and BARC have been absolute cretins in this and tried to think bluster and make believe can cover for reality.

The least cost to test would have been within a 1 year timeframe after the Shakti II tests. That would have allowed us to weather the sanctions. Now the costs have been raised many fold . No wonder the BARC folks like Kakodar were against signing the Nuke deal !. Atleast now it is not too late. The positive is that we atleast DID test and hopefully learnt exactly WHY the fizzile happened.

If for whatever reason we cannot test , we should at least be able to simulate the bug fixed weapon by atleast two totally independent teams (starting with the proven FBF stage as the base) and have both versions of them on the MIRVs to statistically get as close to a proven weapon as possible and get the deterrence in place. That probably is the best we can do. Of course, no idiot however a hare brained Paki or Chini would test that and want to be a guinea pig for the "not fully tested" nukes.. Just in case it does work to the statistical probability , then they are toast.

Hmm. There are real costs of the BARC failure for sure. We need to have 2 versions of the TN weapon and maybe 2 more subs than what we would have ideally had. But IMHO it is a very low cost . I just hope the govt withstands the pressure of the "Need to test" lobby.

Oh yeah. CTBT or not, India's weapon capability , just like everyone else's is frozen at current levels. But dayumm.. One chance Vajpayee gave to the BARC dudes, and they blew it.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 17 Sep 2009 10:42

Gagan wrote:I've always suspected that vajpayee and all those scientists at the crater formed by the blast were at the FBF S2 "Taj Mahal" site and not at the "White House" S1 Site.

Here is confirmation of this.
The virtually undamaged White house TN test site.

On enlargement you can see a shaft here with a black beam lying across its opening. This is not the same as the other one you have linked which is another intact shaft opening.

The shaft and the A winch that was not destroyed?

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 17 Sep 2009 10:46

sudeepj wrote:Santhanam's article clears some things up, but creates some more confusions..

BARC claimed the fission weapons yield was 15KT, Santhanam says it was 25KT, why the discrepancy here?

Perhaps the FBF primary of the S1 experiment has been deployed as the weapon and not the 15KT weapon in TajMahal shaft?

S1 only generated a yield of 25 +/- 2 kt from fission. (I.e. Fission from FBF Primary + spark plug + minute amount from Tertiary. Fusion yield from S1 was tiny). K. Santhanam is referring to this.

What is weaponized and deployed is a scaled up 25 kt fission weapon.
17 kt FBF was convincingly demonstrated as primary of S1, it has resulted in FBF weapon of 50 kt and now also likely 25 kt.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 17 Sep 2009 10:48

vina wrote: I just hope the govt withstands the pressure of the "Need to test" lobby.

Oh yeah. CTBT or not, India's weapon capability , just like everyone else's is frozen at current levels. But dayumm.. One chance Vajpayee gave to the BARC dudes, and they blew it.

On the other hand, given the saturation levels of debt US has reached with China, we do have a window of opportunity where we get to wither sanctions and yet demostrate our full blown capability (assuming we "fixed" our thing).

IMO, the last thing we should worry at this point is the threat of sanctions. It is simply not in the interest of US and the other powers to walk away from Indian market. We need to leverage this opportunity and say that it has been an unmet national goal and absolutely critical for our scientific and defence establishments. I am sure we have the PR muscle to spread the right message.

ramdas · Post by **ramdas** » 17 Sep 2009 10:52

Arunji,

According to you, are any FBF weapons based on the S-1 primary weaponized and deployed ?

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 17 Sep 2009 10:53

Austin wrote:How many MIRV can the Agni-5 carry with 25kT yeald/weight , onleee 3 ?

Correct, 3 MIRV with Indian payload designed for Agni-II. It was confirmed to me by a senior DRDO scientist (on record, no OSA WOSHA secret) who was also at Pok-II few years ago, and that is the reason it is depicted as such on BR Agni missile pages.

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 17 Sep 2009 10:55

ramdas wrote:Arunji,

According to you, are any FBF weapons based on the S-1 primary weaponized and deployed ?

Since I am not affiliated to government in anyway and have no access to secrets, I can only say highly probable.

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 17 Sep 2009 10:58

vina wrote: I just hope the govt withstands the pressure of the "Need to test" lobby.

Oh yeah. CTBT or not, India's weapon capability , just like everyone else's is frozen at current levels. But dayumm.. One chance Vajpayee gave to the BARC dudes, and they blew it.

That is the line I have been parroting since 123 debate started last year.

Stinks but true. Indian military must understand the implication of this, and assert its position.

ramdas · Post by **ramdas** » 17 Sep 2009 10:59

Arunji,

It may then be highly probable that larger FBFs in the 100-200kt range may also be there in the arsenal....RaviCV also hinted at that kindof thing...

vina · Post by **vina** » 17 Sep 2009 11:04

On the other hand, given the saturation levels of debt US has reached with China, we do have a window of opportunity where we get to wither sanctions and yet demostrate our full blown capability (assuming we "fixed" our thing).

IMO, the last thing we should worry at this point is the threat of sanctions. It is simply not in the interest of US and the other powers to walk away from Indian market. We need to leverage this opportunity and say that it has been an unmet national goal and absolutely critical for our scientific and defence establishments. I am sure we have the PR muscle to spread the right message

The reason to test is NOT because of Unkil/ Sanctions. It is because, it is in India's interest to preserve the current levels of Nuclear assymmetry. India tests, Pakistan WILL test plutonium weapons AND a TN weapon (come on they to will have been working on it you know) and a near 100% certainty that in case the Paki TN bomb fizzles, China will transfer a proven design. China I guess will NOT have done it for 1) Xerox Khan case has blown the cover with their Uranium weapon 2) A knowledge that India does not have proven capability will probably stay China's hands in giving a proven design to Pakistan.

For all their evilness, the Commie chinese, in any strategy game are NOT suicidal maniacs and I would consider them as "rational" players driven purely by self interest. I will game them as a rational player.

The Pakis ARE the suicidal maniacs. The best route with them is to Nuke Nood them. And the way to Nuke Nood them is via Unkil. That is why I greatly believe that the Paki state should wither away /die and the veneer of "rational behavior" is stripped off and the ultra scary scenario of a Taliban and Al-Qeeda take over of Pak Nukes will make Unkil and Poodles and Aunties strip the Pakis of the Nukes.

Nuke Nood Paki land infested with unstable Abduls IS is in India's strategic interest. A Nuke Nood Pakiland even if Nutty Abdul infested will have limits because of credible threat of Indian convential retaliation. The only reason why they can do what they do today is the Nuke umbrella.

I submit the best case scenario is a total collapse of Pakiland in internal civil war with a Talibunny take over. It will do the LaHore and Karachi RAPES to get a nice taste of the Taliban medicines of Burkhas and Shalwars for ALL, public amputations, whippings and Pakiland going the mould of Saudi Barbaria. That will remove the scales of a Soddy Barbaria style "ideal" from the eyes of the avg Pakjabi Abdul.

vasu_ray · Post by **vasu_ray** » 17 Sep 2009 11:09

shiv wrote:The question to my mind is that if insincerity and bluff is demonstrated at such a high level it questions India's resolve in having a nuclear force which we have the gumption to call "deterrence". We may be bluffing ourselves that more testing may help when we lack the resolve to make the arsenal credible and will again fail to use even "little balls" if necessary.

shivji, maybe you can talk about Ashoka's realization after Kalinga war, Japanese eschewing nukes after WW2 and WHO (psychological profile) should really man the Indian SFC with the NFU policy, other than it being a quasi political-military decision structure

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 17 Sep 2009 11:22

vina wrote:The reason to test is NOT because of Unkil/ Sanctions. It is because, it is in India's interest to preserve the current levels of Nuclear assymmetry. India tests, Pakistan WILL test plutonium weapons AND a TN weapon (come on they to will have been working on it you know) and a near 100% certainty that in case the Paki TN bomb fizzles, China will transfer a proven design. China I guess will NOT have done it for 1) Xerox Khan case has blown the cover with their Uranium weapon 2) A knowledge that India does not have proven capability will probably stay China's hands in giving a proven design to Pakistan.

I think we should first resolve this: Pakistan is not central for Indian nuclear program perspective and yet India is central from Paki program perspective.

So, our capabilities cannot be set based on the notions of what Pakistan may or may not have. We have already mentioned that any Paki weapon falling on India means China or anyone aiding Pak going kaboom. So, esssentially we need something to deter China and the like powers. Given our resources, we need efficient and yet effective designs and that is where I figure TNs are.

Given our deterrance posture, I find it immaterial whether Pak has chota or bada, we need to have that which deters big powers. We fix this, we will fix Pakistan right and proper. In that sense, I don't think status quo suits us and nor we should honor it.

As you rightly said, Pakistan may or may not be there tomorrow for the host of other reasons.

JMTC

vina · Post by **vina** » 17 Sep 2009 11:28

Ok. This is how I would play it given the cards India has got and the ones the Pakis , Chinis and Unkil & Poodles are holding.

1) Unkil pushes CTBT --> India threatens to test. The ground is well laid for that

2) India sends clear message to Unkil and rest of world --> Chinis transfer Nuke tech & Materials, we test, come what may

3) To Unkil. Pakis start the route of weaponizing any plutonium based device --> We test . I think the current K.S hoopla and the NYT article on Paki Nuke growth is largely related to that. Basically Pakiland goes into a Weapons freeze

4) To Unkil --> Any further arms aid that can be used against India or commercial sales of U214 , we test. Basically, an embargo on offensive arms to Pakiland.

5) I firmly believe Unkil is set for long term failure in Afghanistan. How Afghanistan works out after that is based on what India and Iran and Tajikistan , Uzbeks etc do NOW.

6 ) Prepare for Post Unkil Afghanistan scenario to take the chaos INTO pakistan. Dont wait for Pakistan to launch Tailban into Afghanistan. Launch Talibs across Durand line INTO Pakjabistan.

7) India does everything possible to bring about an internal collapse of Pakistan in the long term. Work on Baluchistan and Sind right now to cut off

vina · Post by **vina** » 17 Sep 2009 11:33

Satya_anveshi wrote:I think we should first resolve this: Pakistan is not central for Indian nuclear program perspective and yet India is central from Paki program perspective.

Pakistan is China's proxy. It pays to keep that in focus. Testing now --> Increase cost on India --> China benefits.

Kill the Chinese poodle, China is without leverage against India . 2 front situation killed --> India can face China head on. You will have stable deterrence with China.

Prepare for the Post Unkil Afghan scenario and use that to collapse Pakiland.That is what I think should be our "Dominant Strategy" (ie, strategy I would play, irrespective of what other players would do )(google the word)

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 17 Sep 2009 11:36

Barrak Hussain Obama presiding in UNSC and crafted this draft Draft of U.N. Security Council Resolution on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Nuclear Disarmament. the target of this UNSC draft is only India.

In particular the following two articles 15, 17 are highly damaging to Indian interests and plugs/negates the counter-pressure/escape clause that Indian negotiators thought of

PP21. Reaffirming UNSC Resolution 1540 (2004) and the necessity for all States to implement fully the measures contained therein, and calling upon all UN Member States and international and regional organizations to cooperate actively with the Committee established pursuant to that resolution, including in the course of the comprehensive review as called for in resolution 1810 (2008),{Arun_S: Someone pls help review this resolution and see its bearing on Indian interests.}

..... . . . .
15. Encourages States to require as a condition of nuclear exports that the recipient State agree that, in the event that it should terminate, withdraw from, or be found by the IAEA Board of Governors to be in noncompliance with its IAEA safeguards agreement or withdraw from the NPT, the supplier state would have a right to require the return of nuclear material and equipment provided prior to such termination, noncompliance or withdrawal, as well as any special nuclear material produced through the use of such material or equipment;
..... . . . .
17. Urges States to require as a condition of nuclear exports that the recipient State agree that, in the event that it should terminate its IAEA safeguards agreement, safeguards shall continue with respect to any nuclear material and equipment provided prior to such withdrawal, as well as any special nuclear material produced through the use of such material or equipment.

In light of this US hostility compared to earlier administration's effort to mend ties w/India here is what India must do now:

1.) Cancel P8 contract immediately. P8 has the same equipment that Pakistan has in its US supplied P3. The loiter time of P8 jet is a big handicap. India should announce ordering more TuBear Tu95 or IL38 with sea dragon suite.
2.) Cancel the order for IA purchase of Boing 787 citing delays, and give the order to Airbus.

3.) Go for MRCA evaulation as much as it wants to understand each aircraft's capabilities (in future one of more of them will show up as enemy)

4.) Choose EJ engine (only) and get 200 of them for LCA. Replenish the depleted IAF fighter strength, and create European interest to serve Indian interest.

5.) Tell France and Russia that the 200 aircraft MRCA order will be split between the two; and that MRCA evaul is for eval purpose only. In return we need to get these countries to Veto the UNSC resolution under Barrak Hussain Obama.

6.) Dr. Chidambaram and those in Atomic Energy Commission should resign or be dismissed. Their press reported of September 16 under headline “No reason to doubt the yield of 1998 nuclear test: AEC” has doomed their credentials to serve office any further.

7.) Indian Military (IA. IAF, IN) should step in demand proof tests that meet their requirements, and re-organized BARC related to weapons program.

8.) Pakistan will not give up its assets and under pressure will instaed disperse/park them with Saudi Arabia, China and even Iran. And when needed will get them to use.

Isreal should be reminded that Islamic nuke bomb in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan weapons is existential threat to it, while their own assets are parked in USA, under Obama those weapons will not be given back when you need them.

9.) India must conduct test in the next 3-4 months time frame. That is the only viable option going forward.

10.) If MMS and RC stick together to continue to sell more deception to Indian people, then Dr. K.Santhanam has option to publish one of the two reports and/or let military Corp Commanders see how it impacts execution of their mandate/duty of defending Indian security. Call centers can be rebuilt, strategic weapons option can't be rebuilt.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 17 Sep 2009 11:38

vina wrote:"Dominant Strategy" (ie, strategy I would play, irrespective of what other players would do )(google the word)

vina ji,

Day in and day out in the same buziness...at a BU level and not karporate level.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Sep 2009 11:40

Thanks Ramana for remembering who said what. Much appreciated.

Not to blow my own horn, but to reiterate some points that I made, so that I can use them for further make a prediction, I want to revisit some predictions I made

On EUMA thread (supporting links on that thread)
1) The slight to Kalam was a message to a section within India and there would no apology from the US govt or the Indian one
2) The MRCA decision will be a political one

On KSanathanan's role
1) He would be responsible for test instrumentation and would know exactly what happened -- check
2) He was a part of the power troika and hence would know the weapon details -- check
3) The way Indian establishement works he would have also been told a lot of details by BARC people themselves (not the top ones) -- check -- refer to the fact that he says that BARC radiologists say that the measurement they gave to Raja Ramana and the one publicly announced to the world by RC were different.

(on a off note -- we owe an apology to Arun_S, at least some of us, for I dont know what would the point 3 above would be described in sophisticated circles as, but in Dehat, it would be called lying for sure)

Thus I am reassured in my confidence of the understanding of how Indian systems work (this is not a boast or good thing only a objective statement)

Based on the above I will go out on the limb and make some more predictions
1) The 123 was done BECAUSE (not despite) the govt knew that we had duds.
2) KS is speaking because it is term II of MMS and he won despite 123 fracas. His speaking out has nothing to do with Ombaba's entry but that of MMS Mk II
3) Bush-Ombaba are playing a tango in the American interests. GotUS is constant (like usually GoI is, barring this revolutionary govt.)

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 17 Sep 2009 11:48

vina wrote: Pakistan is China's proxy. It pays to keep that in focus. Testing now --> Increase cost on India --> China benefits.

What is the cost (Sanctions? This is what I referred before)? Who imposes? What is in it for them at this time?

vina wrote: Kill the Chinese poodle, China is without leverage against India . 2 front situation killed --> India can face China head on. You will have stable deterrence with China.

Prepare for the Post Unkil Afghan scenario and use that to collapse Pakiland.That is what I think should be our "Dominant Strategy" (ie, strategy I would play, irrespective of what other players would do )(google the word)

I don't see this has any dependency with the earlier point. There is an element of risk that an Indian tests can unify paki forces but there are whole lot of forces that remain irreconciliable that can be exploited. This is under play now and does not affect our choices with the former. Again, IMO.

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 17 Sep 2009 11:54

Sanku wrote:3) The way Indian establishement works he would have also been told a lot of details by BARC people themselves (not the top ones) -- check -- refer to the fact that he says that BARC radiologists say that the measurement they gave to Raja Ramana and the one publicly announced to the world by RC were different.

(on a off note -- we owe an apology to Arun_S, at least some of us, for I dont know what would the point 3 above would be described in sophisticated circles as, but in Dehat, it would be called lying for sure)

No dont say that, Shiv will be upset if someone called Chidambaram a liar even if it is self evident as daylight that he did lie.

But I am only a pan chewing deyhaati bhayyia, who speak the language of deyhaat, and call a spade a spade. Not sophisticated enough to understand how to fog a discussion.

I have always said, I will do my dharma (duty) come what may, it is upto Sri Krishn how he wants to keep me after that.

giri_hk · Post by **giri_hk** » 17 Sep 2009 12:01

Arun_S wrote:
9.) India must conduct test in the next 3-4 months time frame. That is the only viable option going forward.

India has usd275billion in fx reserves. Thats big by any benchmark. Any threat of sanctions shd be countered with a threat to dump the dollar.

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 17 Sep 2009 12:16

tejas wrote:To me what is more serious than the fact that the TN was a dud was the attempt at covering this up after the fact. While I don't like to use the word treason very much, what else can we label such people? Would they have loaded these devices onto an Agni III knowing they would fail? Can there be a higher act of betrayal?

I was hoping against hope this was all a tamasha so India could avoid signing the shitty bitty. After the
Hindu op-ed piece, I am speechless. If the TN was so successful how come 11 years later we are only weaponizing 1945 vintage fission bombs? I literally feel sick to my stomach. This crime taints far more than BARC. The politicians ( ABV, Mishra et al.) are also responsible.

National security has been betrayed/compromised last 11 years and lacking fixing the problem by resuming testing the future security of my future progeny is at a serious risk.

I think the cover-up cabal starting with its head R.Chidambaram and former NSA Brijesh Mishra should be indicted and tried, and people responsible for failed oversight in AEC should be served justice.

vina · Post by **vina** » 17 Sep 2009 12:17

Arun_S wrote:

9.) India must conduct test in the next 3-4 months time frame. That is the only viable option going forward.

India has usd275billion in fx reserves. Thats big by any benchmark. Any threat of sanctions shd be countered with a threat to dump the dollar.

Get a grip on yourselves. There are far better ways of playing these games. For that use the brains more than the balls .

1) Not right time IMO to test. Unkil needs China and growth lot more than back in 1998. Unkil is weakened. Cannot inflict punishment (without hurting itself terribly) if China resumes Nuke Aid to Pakiland (which is inevitable if India tests)

2) FX reserves etc, is NOT india's card. That is China's card. $275b is peanuts really in the larger scheme of things. We will be nood and on the floor. The other word for that is called suicide.

3) Drive the wedge between Unkil and Pakiland. Two ways to do that. 1) Unkil realizes it is set for failure with current strategy in Afghanistan and dumps Pakiland (wont happen, unless the current course is proven as a dead end) or 2) We create conditions in Pakiland which is set for internal disentagration and Unkils hand is forced because of potential Talibunny take over and spill over into Afghanistan.

4) Realize that the leverage Pakiland has over Unkil is the threat to derail Unkil in Afghanistan and giving Unkil the lesser cost option of collaborating with Pakiland while "managing" India.

5) Remember, Unkil and India's fundamentally converge in nearly all areas except for Pakiland. Neutralize Pakiland as a player /nuisance (the only value Pakiland has is nuisance value) and the big elephant in relations will be removed. Focus shifts towards SE Asia, sea lanes, China etc where there is absolute convergence

6) Bottomline, remove Pakiland leverage over Unkil and all the nine pins will fall. Collapsing Pakiland is the lynchpin. That is a long term strategy, which will work over time. It is a drip drip focused long term effort. Be patient and do it. That is what you need.

7) So let go of testing fetish. That is fine at a "testing level" but at an overall level it is not the right thing to do. What makes sense at the sub strategy level, does not make sense at overall level.

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 17 Sep 2009 12:23

ramana wrote:Time for a survivor type vote on ourselves.

Serious !

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 17 Sep 2009 12:26

vina wrote:3) Drive the wedge between Unkil and Pakiland.

Unkil will arm the Pakis regardless of what Delhi does, so there's really no benefit or harm on that front in pissing off or pandering to Unkil.

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 17 Sep 2009 12:32

Vinaji,

I couldnt stop

after your comment. Do you really think, India is trying anything of that sort? Especially with our "Paki is also a victim of terror" and SeS escapado hero, the Sardar Singh at the helm.

and Vinaji,
if it is growth which US is after and along with all the weapons we are going to buy, MRCA and all. Why not do testing right now? MRCA will be given to the country which will veto any SC resolution, pure and simple trade. I cant see a better time than this. Ofcourse, it might mean that we might have THE best MRCA, but we will have good enough.

And float those $250 billion in the market and declare all the future trade will be done in euros, you will be surprised of the effect. THe fact is, we are on self imposed shackles and what better time to remove, when others cant seriously damage us?

What did they damage in 1998, to be able to do now? Why this postpone ment attitude, when it is clear that we are nood only?

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Sep 2009 12:39

So despite all the very questionable Nuke nude theories, it turns out that the only country which is Nuke nude is we ourselves and for 11 years we living Opium dreams of how US will defang Pakistan, help India become a superpower, counter balance China etc etc..

Those who make it a habit of living on others doles deserve no better than this -- be happy with your lota and sattu, and pray that some one does not come along and take it away too.

giri_hk · Post by **giri_hk** » 17 Sep 2009 13:06

vina wrote:
Arun_S wrote:

9.) India must conduct test in the next 3-4 months time frame. That is the only viable option going forward.

India has usd275billion in fx reserves. Thats big by any benchmark. Any threat of sanctions shd be countered with a threat to dump the dollar.
2) FX reserves etc, is NOT india's card. That is China's card. $275b is peanuts really in the larger scheme of things. We will be nood and on the floor. The other word for that is called suicide.

We have more leverage than we give ourselves credit for. If you have usd275bn and you think its peanuts, no one can help you

vina · Post by **vina** » 17 Sep 2009 13:42

Unkil will arm the Pakis regardless of what Delhi does, so there's really no benefit or harm on that front in pissing off or pandering to Unkil.

Why will anyone give anything to someone for free without any return ?. The US arms are a result of the Paki leverage. That is what I am saying. Break that leverage by forcing the issue there.

ravi_ku wrote:Vinaji,

I couldnt stop after your comment. Do you really think, India is trying anything of that sort? Especially with our "Paki is also a victim of terror" and SeS escapado hero, the Sardar Singh at the helm.

Well, did you

even when Vajpayee and NDA hosted Musharraf AFTER Kargil and the parliament attacks and Raghunath temple and Akshardham attacks ?. Why bring partisan politics into this. These things are not done overnight and anyway, public pronouncements can be very different from what actually goes on !.

MRCA and all

Listen. There is a reason why the MRCA kind of fighter planes and tanks etc are called TACTICAL systems. They really dont change the overall outcome. The MRCA / $10b is not the issue. It is the larger issue of what others will do in response to your action (which is basically blow open the Nuke club and allow Iran and NoKO to become de facto powers). That is what the entire world powers will gang up against. It threatens ALL their interests (Japan, Europe and US). Sure no SC motion maybe, but economic consequences will be there and China will be laughing away !. That is the equivalent of a self goal.

And float those $250 billion in the market and declare all the future trade will be done in euros, you will be surprised of the effect. THe fact is, we are on self imposed shackles and what better time to remove, when others cant seriously damage us?

India is a very very minor player in global trade (around 1% or so). You have no leverage, but need to import oil. Ok, you say, you will do business in Euros. But so what ?. Oil is priced in Dollars. You have to go and buy dollars in the Euro-Dollar market (google for what it is) to buy oil!. Also sanctions if any will be a coordinated response and will come about only if the Euros come on board. Or it wont get imposed at all!. So how will going to Euros help you ?.

What did they damage in 1998, to be able to do now? Why this postpone ment attitude, when it is clear that we are nood only?

Sanctions are not an issue. Most likely there will be none (even less than in 1998 maybe). But the leverage of threatening to test and the added value of freezing Pakiland's nukes in place (the gap will become zero if you let them acquire plutonium based and TN weapons) and putting a spoke in weapons and nuke transfers is far more valuable. That is strategically important.

Worst case, if we go under sanctions and Pakis don't (what if they don't test if you do and Unkil winks at Chini tested weapon transfer?) it will be rank idiocy.

You have the cards and the initiative. Put the costs, complications and the responsibility for blowing up the Nuke regime on the US. Why should you play your card at the wrong time, for the wrong reasons and no new benefit?

Testing and deterrence are a means to an end. Not an end in themselves. So what is the strategy ?. I think it should be to demolish the lynchpin of the obstacles in India's way. That is, you need to unhinge Pakistan.

If you want to prove your "mardangi" it is not in testing nukes. That is a cop out. Go for the real deal. The guts, chutzpah and cojones to implode pakistan and the readiness to deal with the aftermath of Nuke armed Nutty Abduls there in an environment of collapse like Somalia.

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 17 Sep 2009 13:52

Vinaji,

I think you are not getting my point. There are two issues here

i) implosion of Pakistan
ii) Nuke testing

You are saying that for the implosion of Pakistan, not testing nukes for say 10 years is a reasonable price. i.e. (i) has much greater preference than (ii). I am not contradicting you in anyway with respect to your aims.

But when I see reality/actions, I do not see even a single iota of evidence that India is doing ANYthing for (i). So atleast do (ii), i.e. because I do not see any action plan for (i), pulling that up as reason for not doing (ii) is but a strawman.

If the world is going to see no war ever in the future(a), not shaving my beard today(b) is but a small price to pay. But if we donot work for (a) or it is just a utopia, using that as a reason for stopping (b) is just as foolish. (a little bit exaggareation, but I tried thinking off a better example, couldnt get it off my head)

Why do we care if NK, Iran, Venezuela get nukes? What goes off India's baap? For India, NPT is a regime meant to be broken. All our major neighbors already have them

JimmyJ · Post by **JimmyJ** » 17 Sep 2009 14:00

For those who suggest on immediate testing....

Would it work this time?

Are we gonna trust the guys whom we say lied and is lying to the Nation?

JMT

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 17 Sep 2009 14:05

For those who suggest on immediate testing....

Would it work this time?

only one way to find out...

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 17 Sep 2009 17:36

So, ......................................... where does BR stand?

50Kt is the highest I see posted.

I have not taken the time to read up on the BR Agni page (sorry - will do that yatra soon), but I suspect 3 of them can be loaded on to an Agni.

This is what MMS meant by Minimum CD.

Also, an ICBM now becomes rather a need. Did current GoI shelve the Surya?

Also, on another note - just to get closure. The three heads of the three branches of the armed forces were there at the voice vote meeting. They and all chiefs since are equally responsible.

Anyone for a voice vote on which direction the sun rises?

And, no response from AEC so far?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 17 Sep 2009 17:59

Well Santhanam's article is dated 17 Sep 2009 (today). It will be stonewalled for a bit but the momentum of articles expressing doubts is certainly picking up with today's article being the most hard hitting of the lot.

Santhanam is a man who has spent all his life in government service and all his friends will be from that circle. If they (GoI) want to shut him up they can. There are two ways that I can think of:

1) The good cop way - phone calls and reasoning
2) The bad cop way - i.e to rubbish his claims - but if that is done by quoting some 1999 meetings then it is back in Santhanam's court - in which case the tamasha will continue.

Let us see which way this dice falls. Testing of course requires the little matter of contacting the local Annapoorna borewell company and asking for a 400 meter borewell to be dug. That will IMO not occur and even if it does - let's say they take a boosted fission and get 80 kt - so what? Again there will be the same argument of crater size, radiochem signature, he lied, you lied etc. And this time Santhanam won't be allowed in.

Nobody is going to test anytime soon. Everything will be fought in the media. All exposes and explosions on here onlee..

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 17 Sep 2009 18:04

Regarding surface cratering and damage after a nuclear test

Russian Test Site Displays Pride, Perils of a Superpower
The Washington Post | October 18, 1992| Fred Hiatt

Before every atomic bomb test beneath the frozen ground of this arctic island, Soviet nuclear wizards would set a glass of vodka on ground zero, a trophy for the first engineer to arrive when the earth stopped trembling.

For years, that engineer was almost always Georgi Kaurov, and Kaurov, unafraid of radiation, would polish off the drink with gusto.

"I was the first many, many times," Kaurov, 60, said this week with pride and some nostalgia as he led to the site of his bygone exploits a group of foreign reporters, including what he said were the first Americans to come here

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 17 Sep 2009 18:30

Santhanam is a man who has spent all his life in government service and all his friends will be from that circle. If they (GoI) want to shut him up they can. There are two ways that I can think of:

1) The good cop way - phone calls and reasoning
2) The bad cop way - i.e to rubbish his claims - but if that is done by quoting some 1999 meetings then it is back in Santhanam's court - in which case the tamasha will continue.

Let us see which way this dice falls.

shiv: The other side of the question is: "What about the Official Secrets Act?"
Santanam's revelations now seem 99% certain to be approved by someone with the power to grant him immunity at least, and most probably, permission to deClassify (or lie about) what went on at closed-door meetings discussing nuclear test results.

So the question remains: "Why? Why now?"
What happened to the vodka glasses on the frozen tundra above Soviet test sites is nothing compared to what happens to ppl who reveal such things without clear permission. I assume that unlike me, Dr. Santanam has not been posting on BRF, so he's not "certifiable" and can't plead insanity at his trial. (I am observing Voluntary Morarjithorium on Smileys onlee).