Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Locked
Arun_S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2800
Joined: 14 Jun 2000 11:31
Location: KhyberDurra

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by Arun_S »

Gagan wrote:Even the 8 KT Smiling Buddha resulted in a Crater. I guess the shaft was not too deep.

Arun_S is this the difference?
Image
Pls see this BARC paper, Fig-4 for what is a cavity. It is a hollow cavity that is left where the nuclear device was em-placed.
Depending on yield and depth of burial earth material the earth above the device may form a subsistance crater due to sinking of a column of earth ( shaped like a chimney) below it. The crater is exposed to open atmosphere and looks like a,... what else a crater (a curved conic shape with its open face looking up).

The cavity OTOH stay out of sight and at the dept of burial of the device. Cavity in nuke test is irregular and generally shaped like an inverted tea cup.

There is a nice informational article on BRM (Shiv mentioned that earlier) with pics.
Kanson
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3065
Joined: 20 Oct 2006 21:00

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by Kanson »

Arun_S wrote:
Kanson wrote:Becoz, Santhanam said so ? If there is no credibility on BARC, how this alone be doing good.
Will anyone feel any more comfortable if I said I have access to Chidambram and all his friends and detractors?
Your personal choice to believe or disbelieve me.
When one started to doubt...where it the question believe without any facts ? Otherwise, it fall on the line hypocrisy.
Arun_S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2800
Joined: 14 Jun 2000 11:31
Location: KhyberDurra

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by Arun_S »

Kanson wrote:
Arun_S wrote: Nope, I am compromise nothing.
I stand by my statement.
It is not the question of your stand. What reason necessitates to bring these type of discussion or state these things. What is the point ?
One amongst many purposeful and pointness statements by the gentle participants on this thread, depending on reader !
ShauryaT
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5355
Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by ShauryaT »

NRao wrote: IF I understand the discussion, S1 did produce 18 +7 +2 = 27Kt? With that kind of thud, there should be a crater?

BUT, there is no crater (dust blew high and settled down). So, was there 27Kt at all? Or, actually, even 1 KT?
This is where ramana's completed thud reading of KS article makes sense. However, one other possibility is the depth of the shaft, which may result in no crater at 27 kt.
Arun_S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2800
Joined: 14 Jun 2000 11:31
Location: KhyberDurra

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by Arun_S »

ss_roy wrote:Arun_S,

On second thought, these tunnels might be more useful for perpetual storage of our 'white worshiping' leaders.

PS- Every nuclear power has dug more than a few holes that were never used, so nobody can really claim to be surprised.
My sources tell me tunnels for next round of test have been ready for many years.
Good idea. Thankyou.
RavinM
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 42
Joined: 04 Nov 2008 16:27
Location: UK

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by RavinM »

I think the gurus here need to do a multi-angle sweep of whats happening around, Santhanam blurting out secrets close to his heart, Chinkis at the border behaving rabid, Unkil going to UN & G5 wth anti-india statements, 10 recent porks chopped in Mumbai!!!, ATV launched- must carry mated missiles shortly, hmmm this looks like a skillfully executed tact to me ( forgetting once that S1 was a fart)
Is the failure propaganda, just trying to get a excuse to test? or is it asking Obamia- to stay put, given he is reversing Buss strategy gradually?? And how come the Santhanam lobby is so strong, given the repurcussions. alas jaane!!!
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19291
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by NRao »

ShauryaT wrote:
Arun_S wrote:
Dont be confused by the 25 kT fission number to belong to S2. It belongs to S1 which was almost entirely fission and with barely 7% fusion yield
My understanding of the KS article is the same. I think ramana posted something on the lines of S2 being 25Kt and S1 completely fizzled. ramana?
I think ramana is referring to:
The fission bomb {S2} yield from the DRDO’s seismic instrumentation was 25 +2 kiloton and left a crater 25 metres in diameter. If the TN device {S1} had really worked with a yield of 50 +2 kt, it should have left a crater almost 70 metres in diameter. Instead, all that happened was that sand and mud from the shaft were thrown several metres into the air and then fell back, forming a small depression in the shaft mouth. There was no crater. {related to S1}
Which was my question in my last post.

IF there was no crater, the shaft was in tact and the A-frame was in tact too, then there could not have been much of an explosion. The question is how large of an explosion could it have been for even the A-frame to be in tact. Forget the shaft and crater (assuming the A-frame is the weakest link among these three).
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19291
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by NRao »

ShauryaT wrote:
NRao wrote: IF I understand the discussion, S1 did produce 18 +7 +2 = 27Kt? With that kind of thud, there should be a crater?

BUT, there is no crater (dust blew high and settled down). So, was there 27Kt at all? Or, actually, even 1 KT?
This is where ramana's completed thud reading of KS article makes sense. However, one other possibility is the depth of the shaft, which may result in no crater at 27 kt.
Which is what Gerard alluded to a page or so ago.

But, then why stop at 27Kt? It could have been the full, designed yield.
Arun_S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2800
Joined: 14 Jun 2000 11:31
Location: KhyberDurra

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by Arun_S »

Singha wrote:cook off a 150kt device and seek secondary confirmation from russian siesmic detectors. if it fails, announce a open ended series of tests until problems get resolved
That is what a free and sensible person at helm will do.
NPAs will publish their own 'studies' but who cares? once the indian and russian calculations are in approx aggreement we will have our validation.
Military engineers are capable of doing that.
Gagan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11242
Joined: 16 Apr 2008 22:25

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by Gagan »

Image
RavinM
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 42
Joined: 04 Nov 2008 16:27
Location: UK

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by RavinM »

If no crater = failure or fizzle or fart or whatever (as per Santanam garu), then the satellites must have picked this up after the tests, and this would have been a point presented by the counter arguing team (international or local). yet how could this point that no crater was formed , be supressed on an open ground! and then there is of course Narayana's theory of Khetolai. At what depth such a explosion of 25 kt ot 27 ot 45, be supressed underground?? is it possible??
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19291
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by NRao »

ShauryaT wrote:
NRao wrote: IF I understand the discussion, S1 did produce 18 +7 +2 = 27Kt? With that kind of thud, there should be a crater?

BUT, there is no crater (dust blew high and settled down). So, was there 27Kt at all? Or, actually, even 1 KT?
This is where ramana's completed thud reading of KS article makes sense. However, one other possibility is the depth of the shaft, which may result in no crater at 27 kt.
ST,

Take a look at this statement:
Instead, all that happened was that sand and mud from the shaft were thrown several metres into the air and then fell back, forming a small depression in the shaft mouth. There was no crater.
Forget crater, any semblance of a depression was confined to "the shaft mouth". What ...... about 2-3 meters wide?

For something like that to happen I would imagine that:
1) It was a dud, very little explosion - forget the 20+Kt estimate, or
2) The device was buried very deep (in which case AK/RC have something up their sleeve?)

??????????
ShauryaT
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5355
Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by ShauryaT »

NRao: My reading of that first sentence of the passage "The fission bomb" refers to the fission component of S1. That is the only way it makes sense to me along with the rest of the para or it does not make sense.

added: is 25 meters a small depression?
Last edited by ShauryaT on 18 Sep 2009 06:32, edited 1 time in total.
Arun_S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2800
Joined: 14 Jun 2000 11:31
Location: KhyberDurra

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by Arun_S »

NRao wrote:
ShauryaT wrote:
  • \quote="NRao"]
    IF I understand the discussion, S1 did produce 18 +7 +2 = 27Kt? With that kind of thud, there should be a crater?

    BUT, there is no crater (dust blew high and settled down). So, was there 27Kt at all? Or, actually, even 1 KT? /quote]

This is where ramana's completed thud reading of KS article makes sense. However, one other possibility is the depth of the shaft, which may result in no crater at 27 kt.
Which is what Gerard alluded to a page or so ago.

But, then why stop at 27Kt? It could have been the full, designed yield.
Possible of the depth was another 2-5 times of the guessed 200 - 300m deep burial. Now that will be a fantastic depth that K Santhanam's team has to dig. Way mopre than WoP/Changappa's "more than 200 m deep shaft" statement. Much more implausible.
Arun_S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2800
Joined: 14 Jun 2000 11:31
Location: KhyberDurra

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by Arun_S »

Gagan wrote:Image
Correct. In reality the cavity is many "cavity diameters" away from the bottom of the crater. There is loose earth in a vertical chimney shape that projects down from bottom of the crater towards the cavity. (it may or may not touch the cavity).
vayu
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 8
Joined: 04 Apr 2008 11:48

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by vayu »

Damaging fallout: 'Dud' Pokhran II blows up 11 years later

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/news ... 024571.cms
shyamd
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7101
Joined: 08 Aug 2006 18:43

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by shyamd »

Santhanam is pushing govt into a corner as the CTBT nears. Crunch time.
Arun_S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2800
Joined: 14 Jun 2000 11:31
Location: KhyberDurra

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by Arun_S »

NRao wrote:
Arun_S wrote: If there was crater formed on surface of the S1 shaft, the A-frame and shaft on the surface would have been as thoughtly destroyed as the A-frame in S2 test for which pics are available and can be seen.
Thx Arun_S.

However, that answer makes the situation even more dicey.

IF I understand the discussion, S1 did produce 18 +7 +2 = 27Kt? With that kind of thud, there should be a crater?

BUT, there is no crater (dust blew high and settled down). So, was there 27Kt at all? Or, actually, even 1 KT?
There is no doubt there was 27 kT yield from S1.
There was no crater becuse it was buried for a much higher yield, and the 27 kT did not do much disturbance on surface, which is normal. Pls read that useful BR Monitor article that Shiv pointed out it will help understand.
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19291
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by NRao »

ShauryaT wrote:NRao: My reading of that first sentence of the passage "The fission bomb" refers to the fission component of S1. That is the only way it makes sense to me along with the rest of the para or it does not make sense.

added: is 25 meters a small depression?
That cannot be:
The fission bomb {S2} yield from the DRDO’s seismic instrumentation was 25 +2 kiloton and left a crater 25 metres in diameter. If the TN device {S1} had really worked with a yield of 50 +2 kt, it should have left a crater almost 70 metres in diameter. Instead, all that happened was that sand and mud from the shaft were thrown several metres into the air and then fell back, forming a small depression in the shaft mouth. There was no crater. {related to S1}
IF "The fission bomb" created a crater of "25 meters in diameter", then how can he claim that "There was no crater"? either there was no crater of the fission part left a crater of 25 meters dia.

The last sentence relates to the "TN device". By extension what he means is that even if the total TN explosion was 25Kt, it should have left a crater of a smaller diameter. BUT, he claims, it left no crater at all.

Arun_S,

Thx.
Babu Bihari
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 35
Joined: 05 Sep 2009 00:33

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by Babu Bihari »

Arun_S wrote:There is no doubt there was 27 kT yield from S1.
Arun_S, if the yield from S1 was 27KT, then how come the shaft of S1 was not destroyed?

saala, kutch samajh nahi aa raha hai. I am totally confused :-?
John Snow
BRFite
Posts: 1941
Joined: 03 Feb 2006 00:44

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by John Snow »

Because S1 was on different geological structure whose composition no one knows except R Chidambaram garu.
shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by shiv »

Arun_S wrote:
shiv wrote:As an aside - I find it amusing that 27kt is exactly 60% of 45 kt
I think I stated that many pages earlier.
Arunji - I also stated that - but you and I saying it means nothing. Santhanam has to say it before anything takes on meaning. No? Otherwise I will take credit for a lot of things for which I do not deserve credit.
shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by shiv »

All talk about applying OSA on Santhanam is American minds applying American methods on SDREs. No such thing will be done. Santhanam himself has nearly impeccable credentials as per B Raman - so no need to think that "OSA will be applied" etc. Things just do not work that way in India for members of the elite.

For ordinary mortals and Pakis it is a different story
sudeepj
BRFite
Posts: 1976
Joined: 27 Nov 2008 11:25

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by sudeepj »

Gerard wrote:
A properly designed shaft can take even a 5MT test!
From the OTA document above
The third test, “Cannikin,” November 6, 1971, was the Spartan warhead test with a reported yield of “less than five megatons. This test, by far the highest-yield underground test ever conducted by the United States, was too large to be safely conducted in Nevada.
Gerard,

Many references state that the Cannikin test was nearly 5MT if not 5 MT. How does it detract from my claim if the yield was 4MT instead of 5MT? It doesnt.. A shaft to take 200KT with a minuscule danger of venting could have easily been designed in the Pokhran test range.

The risk from collapsing houses was already negated by having people come out of their homes and into the open.
Arun_S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2800
Joined: 14 Jun 2000 11:31
Location: KhyberDurra

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by Arun_S »

Babu Bihari wrote:
Arun_S wrote:There is no doubt there was 27 kT yield from S1.
Arun_S, if the yield from S1 was 27KT, then how come the shaft of S1 was not destroyed?

saala, kutch samajh nahi aa raha hai. I am totally confused :-?
Same reason why small earthquakes do not leave ground disturbence at epicenter, becasue teh explosive energy is buried too deep and the earth above the device is so heavy (for the given energy) that it does not push the material on surface with a momentum that will result in fracture much less spalling (throwing) of material into air.

Pls spend some time to find that paper that Shiv referred to, that will really make it easily understood.
shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by shiv »

John Snow wrote: Even criminals are given a chance to retract statements they made. More recently Kasab did it did he not?
That is why lies are sometimes scalable but that can later be retracted without anyone remembering.
ShauryaT
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5355
Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by ShauryaT »

Posting the TOI article above in full.
MUMBAI: Eleven years after India tested nuclear bombs in the deserts of Pokhran, embarrassing details about the test fizzling out have exploded

into a full blown controversy with top nuclear scientists on Thursday demanding that the government institute an inquiry to determine whether the test failed. Former nuclear czars said they were ashamed that information had been hidden.

Three former nuclear leaders -- M R Srinivasan, P K Iyengar and A N Prasad -- said in the wake of revelations by K Santhanam, project leader for Pokhran II, the government must order a peer review into the yield of the thermonuclear test of May 1998.

Santhanam went public first on August 26, saying that the yield from the test was far lower than what prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's government claimed. On Thursday, in a newspaper article he disclosed embarrassing details saying the test was a failure because the yield was only 25 kilotons, nearly half of what the scientists had then claimed. He said that a meeting of scientists discussed the failure soon after the test and decided to hide it. He also pointed out that the failure meant that India now did not possess a credible nuclear deterrent, indicating that warheads on India's long-range missile could have far less punch than expected.

R Chidambaram, former chairman of Atomic Energy Commission and the architect of the nuke tests; Anil Kakodkar, then director of Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, and APJ Abdul Kalam who led the team from Defence Research and Development Organisation, have insisted the device operated according to its design specifications and the yield was 45 kilotons.

At a meeting on September 5, the AEC dismissed the first statements made by Santhanam, saying through different types of analysis it was established that the yield of the thermonuclear test was 45 KT. Now, even scientists in Barc, the nation's top nuclear weapon establishment, doubt the claim.

While saying he was surprised by Santhanam's article, M R Srinivasan, former AEC chairman, told TOI it was time for both Chidambaram and Kakodkar to clarify the situation. ``In such circumstances I think a peer review is certainly warranted,'' he said.

At the same time he said he still stood by the official position and would support Chidambaram and Kakodkar regarding the yield of the thermonuclear test. ``A lot of information has been published and is on record. So I have really no reason to disbelieve at this stage either Chidambaram or Kakodkar on this issue. However, because of the current controversy, I think the best recourse would be for both of them to clarify the position through a peer review,'' he added.

Former Barc director, A N Prasad, who has all along maintained that the thermonuclear test was anything but a success, said, ``The painful fallout of this episode is that the credibility of the nuclear scientific community and the respectable name of Barc is being damaged by a few at the top.''

In a direct attack on Kalam and Chidambaram, Prasad said: ``If all that Santhanam has written is true, then people occupying high places have misled the country. If all the data about the thermonuclear test has been held by one man (Chidambaram), then how can it be scientifically contested or debated? He has kept it under wraps.''

Stressing that there should be a probe by a committee constituted by the government, Prasad said that the team should comprise those having serious doubts about the yield of the test as well as experts who can include former nuclear scientists who have been raising their voices. ``It should not consist of only yes men. It should consist of those who are knowledgeable, who have the capacity to investigate such a serious matter,'' he said.

``If this committee concludes that the thermonuclear test had completely failed then the government has played a major fraud on the people of this country,'' he said. Asked if the AEC itself can investigate, he replied: ``It has credibility, but no expertise.''

Another former AEC chief, P K Iyengar said, ``The government should undertake an active investigation immediately following the statements made by Santhanam in the article. I am feeling really ashamed.''

Regarding a revelation in Santhanam's article that the thermonuclear device had not yet been weaponised like the fission devices, he said: ``How will they do it if they are doubtful about the yield? This itself is a clear indication that the test was not a complete success.''

Both Iyengar and Prasad said the disclosures by Santhanam, that there was no disturbance to the shafts at ground zero, was also proof that the test was unsuccessful.
Rahul Mehta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2577
Joined: 22 Nov 2001 12:31
Location: Ahmedabad, India --- Bring JurySys in India
Contact:

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by Rahul Mehta »

So finally "Satyam" on Pokharan-2 - The Super Dud is out. And boy, that puts Raju to shame.

Our experts have outperformed Raju by factor of 100.

Now why dont we get committee of independent auditors from PwC to examine Pokharan-2 data? PwC auditors are known for their integrity and many are now out of job. They can be used to give an independent opinion on Pokharan-2

==========

The only way out is to create an explosion 4000 kt = 4 mtand vaporize an island in AN. There are 10s of islands --- one less. And hell with ecology. When an island actually vaporizes, all disputes about strength will come to end. eg when Russia did 50kt explosion, there many claims about its actual yield -- varying from 20000 to 50000kt. But no scientist gave an estimate of below 20000 kt. So that at least proves 20000 kt of yield.

So IMO, best way out to settle our capability claim is to actually conduct a 4000 kt test so that even the lowest estimate would exceed 2000 kt.
ShauryaT
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5355
Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by ShauryaT »

NRao wrote: IF "The fission bomb" created a crater of "25 meters in diameter", then how can he claim that "There was no crater"? either there was no crater of the fission part left a crater of 25 meters dia.

The last sentence relates to the "TN device". By extension what he means is that even if the total TN explosion was 25Kt, it should have left a crater of a smaller diameter. BUT, he claims, it left no crater at all.
NRao: The dud theory does not square off with KS earlier statement of about 60% yield on S1 design. So, the only possible explanations are:

1. It was too deep to form ANY crater at 27 kt
2. The crater was only 25 meters, which he refers to as "no crater".

If someone can take the 70 meters that he says should have been the crater on a design of 50+2, then it should be possible to reverse engineer the depth?
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59882
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by ramana »

That will be not kosher for mere mortals.
Arun_S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2800
Joined: 14 Jun 2000 11:31
Location: KhyberDurra

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by Arun_S »

NRao wrote:
ShauryaT wrote:NRao: My reading of that first sentence of the passage "The fission bomb" refers to the fission component of S1. That is the only way it makes sense to me along with the rest of the para or it does not make sense.

added: is 25 meters a small depression?
That cannot be:
The fission bomb {S2} yield from the DRDO’s seismic instrumentation was 25 +2 kiloton and left a crater 25 metres in diameter. If the TN device {S1} had really worked with a yield of 50 +2 kt, it should have left a crater almost 70 metres in diameter. Instead, all that happened was that sand and mud from the shaft were thrown several metres into the air and then fell back, forming a small depression in the shaft mouth. There was no crater. {related to S1}
IF "The fission bomb" created a crater of "25 meters in diameter", then how can he claim that "There was no crater"? either there was no crater of the fission part left a crater of 25 meters dia.

The last sentence relates to the "TN device". By extension what he means is that even if the total TN explosion was 25Kt, it should have left a crater of a smaller diameter. BUT, he claims, it left no crater at all.

Arun_S,

Thx.
I answered that earlier. Reposting relavent part:
Arun_S wrote:
Raj Malhotra wrote:Re Arun_S

... ... .. He also refers to 30m crater for 25kt fission bomb and NO crater for TN bomb. I think he is still saving some lungis and not telling what was the designed yield of TN but only referring to claimed yield of 50kt for TN which he saying was not achieved.
I think the editorial error came from editor's scissors. "Crater" should be read as "Cavity"
As IIRC Sarma said: Language could be better. Editors should have done a better job.
So 25 meter dia cavity came from the 25 kT fission yield of S1, and that produced NO crater.
Had the device worked as it is claimed (50 kT) it would have created a subsistence crater of ~70m diameter.
So here is how I read it: My edits in dark green.
http://www.hindu.com/2009/09/17/stories ... 550900.htm
Pokhran-II thermonuclear test, a failure

K. Santhanam and Ashok Parthasarathi

... . ..
The fission part of the TN bomb yield from the DRDO’s seismic instrumentation was 25 +2 kiloton and left a crater cavity 25 metres in diameter. If the TN device had really worked with a yield of 50 +2 kt, it should have left a subsistance crater almost 70 metres in diameter. Instead, all that happened was that sand and mud from the shaft were thrown several metres into the air and then fell back, forming a small depression in the shaft mouth. There was no crater.

This factual analysis reveals India’s decade-long, grim predicament regarding the failed TN bomb and so our Credible Minimum Deterrent (CMD). No country having undertaken only two weapon related tests of which the core TN device failed, can claim to have a CMD. This is corroborated by fact that even after 11 years the TN device has not been weaponised by BARC while the 25 kiloton fission device has been fully weaponised and operationally deployed{Arun_S: I.e. Boosted Fission}. on multiplate weapon platforms. It would be farcical to use a 3500-km range Agni-3 missile with a 25 kiloton fission warhead as the core of our CMD. Only a 150 – 350 kiloton if not megaton TN bomb can do so which we do not have.
shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by shiv »

ss_roy wrote:If S1 was TN and S2 was BF, why did we perform S3, S4 and S5 as subkiloton explosions? What was being tested?

I believe I actually addressed this earlier in this thread - but there is too much traffic. It's all about fusion.

Fission bombs can virtually be "tested" by using appropriate information and conventional explosives only.

But given current technology available to India (as per my inferences from public sources) the only way you can cause fusion in a bomb is to spark it off by a fission bomb. In other words the material that fuses has to be compressed and heated to such a high degree that it fuses - and when it does that it gives off a lot of energy. This is like getting two unwilling people married by forcing them to spend their nights together alone and then checking for babies. The "babies" in the case of fusion are high energy neutrons that hit other atoms and produce signatures - like a baby puking and crying.

Fusion does not occur easily and you need to test many times before you can figure out exactly what temperature and pressure you are achieving with your fission bomb - and testing of fission bombs is banned. To me it appears significant that3 out of 5 tests were "subkioton" tests in 1998 for data gathering - although we may have to wait another 11 years till 2020 (when we will be a developed country) before we find out that they were all fizzles.
ShauryaT
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5355
Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by ShauryaT »

I read it exactly the way Arun_S did above.
Gagan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11242
Joined: 16 Apr 2008 22:25

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by Gagan »

So the Indian Nuclear bomb is a 25 KT pure fission free fall bomb deliverable by the MKI / Mirage 2000 / Jaguar. This is the only proofed & weaponized nuclear weapon india has.
A few of these are also atop prithvis and the Agni 1 & 2.

I am not taking any FBF weapons or scalable 50 - 150 KT devices into account here, since they are untested.
shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by shiv »

Regarding crater or no crater and shape of crater:

1) The blast produces an underground cavity.

2) Because pressure from above the cavity is usually greater than pressure from the sides, the roof starts caving in and the "new roof" after the cave in also starts caving in. This "serial caving in" produces a cylinder shaped structure of caved in rocks and the volume of that cylinder (when complete) will be roughly the same volume as the cavity. The radius of that cylinder is also roughly the same as that of the cavity.

3) If the rock above the original cavity is of sufficient strength - it is possible that the "cylinder of collapse" will not reach all the way to the surface. If it does not reach the surface it will create an unfilled cavity above it, but still underground. The earth surface above that cavity will appear relatively undisturbed. This may occur in very deep tests in hard rock. The cavity above the cylinder of collapsed rock will occupy a volume smaller than the original cavity because the collapsed rock chunks filling the space below will not be a tight fit

4) Often the "serial collapse" of rock making a cylinder continues all the way to the surface and creates a crater that may appear hours or days after the explosion. In this case the crater will not be approximately the same radius as the cylinder and bomb cavity - but will be somewhat larger.

If you do hajaar carefully calibrated tests in an area (hajaar=some suitable large number to reduce error) then you will have a great idea of how the rock in the area behaves and you can deduce yield from crater size or cylinder diameter and height (cylinder volume). Calculating yield from cavity size is yet another rough calculation that gets errors trimmed off as you do more and more tests in similar rock.
csharma
BRFite
Posts: 694
Joined: 12 Jul 1999 11:31

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by csharma »

K Subrahmanyam has explicitly mentioned that India has fabricated fission bombs in the range of 60-80Kt.

The question is: Can these 60-80KT devices be deployed in a SLBM and what would be the approx range.
dinesha
BRFite
Posts: 1211
Joined: 01 Aug 2004 11:42
Location: Delhi

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by dinesha »

Dud bomb was made a success by govt diktat
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/site/Story ... iktat.html
The facility at Karnal in Haryana, which was specifically set up in association with the US's National Security Agency ( NSA) and the Central Intelligence Agency ( CIA) in the wake of the first Chinese nuclear test in October 1964, has ultra- sophisticated instrumentation obtained from the US. " These are more sophisticated than anything that the Department of Atomic Energy ( DAE) has," said a source. They are designed to track underground nuclear weapon tests and have their instruments in a deep vertical shaft dug deep into the ground, in contrast to the system mounted on the surface at the DAE facility at Gauribidanur in Karnataka.

The R& AW collated all its findings and after analysing them, sent them on to the government, presumably the Prime Minister's Office ( PMO)- Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the PM then. These findings, which were in agreement with those of the instruments set up by the DRDO on the test site, created consternation within the government.
Arun_S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2800
Joined: 14 Jun 2000 11:31
Location: KhyberDurra

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by Arun_S »

Gagan wrote:So the Indian Nuclear bomb is a 25 KT pure fission free fall bomb deliverable by the MKI / Mirage 2000 / Jaguar. This is the only proofed & weaponized nuclear weapon india has.
A few of these are also atop prithvis and the Agni 1 & 2.

I am not taking any FBF weapons or scalable 50 - 150 KT devices into account here, since they are untested.
How do you arrive at the pure fission assertion?

As I mentioned in the post above on my read of Santhnam's article, he is referring to 25 kt fission weapon (he did not say 25 kt pure fission weapon, neither did he qualify it as FBF) as FBF fission weapon.

FBF is lot simpler than TN and its design was nicely validated where it worked like charm as primary of S1 (TN)

---------------------Added later -----------------------------------

It will be erroneous to think that FBF weapons are not scalable 50 - 150 KT, that will be the last resort if TN does not get tested. With all associated penalties in terms of requiring:
  • 1) more missiles (and ATVs) to compensate for oomph, and
    2) bigger missiles (bigger ATVs) to account for heavier payload, and
    3) more reactors/reprocessing/stockpile to account for poorer fission efficiency of conversion to energy (compared to TN)
shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by shiv »

dinesha wrote:Dud bomb was made a success by govt diktat
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/site/Story ... iktat.html
Santhanam had recently said that the 1998 hydrogen bomb test was a " fizzle". He has now made another sensational disclosure - that Pokhran- II was declared a success by a " political fatwa" of the NDA government ignoring technical data to the contrary.

My sources tell me that R Chidmbaram should be made the scapegoat holding sole responsibility for this and he will be our very own Xerox Khan. This decision was made in a voice vote to eliminate some participants in the show.
JwalaMukhi
BRFite
Posts: 1635
Joined: 28 Mar 2007 18:27

Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Post by JwalaMukhi »

dinesha wrote:Dud bomb was made a success by govt diktat
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/site/Story ... iktat.html
The history of American technical involvement in monitoring Chinese weapons of mass destruction activity is well- known because of the infamous Nanda Devi episode. A nuclearpowered communications intelligence device was emplaced high up on the mountain in the Uttarakhand Himalayas. It later vanished, provoking fears of nuclear contamination of the rivers of the Ganga system.
Many a nuclear related incidents, such as the above one involving Captain. Kohli, is being bandied now. Is it set up to make a case that India better run into unkil's arm fast and thank the saviour. The looming clouds in the indian region does not seem like normal gathering of the clouds.
Last edited by JwalaMukhi on 18 Sep 2009 09:29, edited 1 time in total.
Locked