Chinese incursions into Indian territory: News and Analysis

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 17 Sep 2009 16:17

The Maharashtra Times is reporting that the NSA meeting with China study group has been cancelled.

http://maharashtratimes.indiatimes.com/ ... 022462.cms

http://www.newkerala.com/nkfullnews-1-113872.html

http://blog.taragana.com/n/china-study- ... ed-171101/

Unable to find the news mentioned in any frontline news-papers so far..

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 17 Sep 2009 16:25

The NSA meet is postponed as per Times Now.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 17 Sep 2009 17:34

Amitava,could you perhaps retitle this thread as the,
"Coming Conflict with China"? All the evidence so far indicates that some sort of spat is on the cards,for the foll. reasons. and the on-going "China conf." indicates that the GOI is worried.

1.Most analysts have not realised clearly the linkage between events in Fak-Ap and the Chinese posturing.Pak is in dire straits,with until recently was on the brink of the precipice,with the Taliban in full control of Swat.The loss of further territory of the Pak state to such fundamentalists-completely out of the control of the ISI and Paki military,was unacceptable to Pak.The futrure of the Paki state was in danger.To overcome this would mean a full-scale military effort to root out the Taliban from Swat and to clean up afterwards,requiring troops from its "eastern front",to be relocated.This was totally against past Paki military strategy which demanded military pressure upon India on our western border,in support of Paki terrorists entering Kashmir and destablising the country.Pak's attempt last year,26/11,engineered by anti-Indian elements within its security appratus, did not bring about an Indian military response which would've allowed Pak to detach itself from the US Fak-Ap policy and the crackdown on the so-called Afghan "Taliban".They are feeling the heat from the US/NATO war on terror and desperately want to regain control over Afghanistan.The anti-India lobby in Pak also want further terror attacks against India to continue,but with the Paki border forces weakened,India has an upper hand in our western sector.Should any further attacks take place,the pressure upon the GOI to respond militarily would be overwhelming and India would have a miliatry advantage over a Paki military fighting a war on two fronts.
Therefore,apart from its own agenda,China is forcing India to look away from Pak and thus relieving any possible Indian pressure against Pak.

2.Several well-known diplomats and military experts have said that China's moves have to be understood from the Chinese viewpoint,which does not play by international rules.China has its own yardstick and rules of the game to achieve its ends.Since the global recession,China has been very worried about losing out to India economically if western nations prefer India to an authoritarian China in the future.The fact that the Indian economy weathered the eco. storm well,dismayed the PRC.India's continuing support for the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan disapora,prevents the Chinese from a total annhilation of the Tibetan people and culture.The uprising before the Olympics stunned the Chinese and the Uighar uprising too has sent the ruling PRC clique off balance.India looks more and more stable while China's stability has come under a cloud.China cannot tolerate losing out to India in the Asian context.Therefore,another "Lesson" to be taught to India as was done in '62 is a tempting opportunity for China to remind the world that in Asia China is top dog.

3.The military equation in the Himalayas favours China at the moment.It has quietly built up a massive civil and military infrastructure in Tibet,now accessible by rail too from the rest of the country.While we have also begun our infrastructure works to counter China,it will take us many years to match what China has achieved.In addition,delays in modernisation of the Indian armed forces and sorely needed extra eqpt. like artillery,etc. have left the IA in particular at a disadvantage with respect to both Pak and China.A window of opportunity therefore exists for the Chinese before our efforts to close it fructify.

4.The Dalai Lama's continual refusal to bow down to the Chinese.This is the most serious factor.China is worried that before he dies,the Dalai Lama might name his successor,or install a Tibetan Council that will in effect take all decisions relating to their temporal matters,leaving the Lamas only in charge of spiritual matters.With the Tibetan youth totally against China,another new generation of Tibetams might not be as patient with China as the monks.As in Tibet ,so too in Tiawan.The Dalai Lama's recent visit there to offer spiritual relief in the aftermath of the floods has huge symbolic effect to the Tibetans and Tiawanese who want independence.It angered the Chinese enormously and the Dalai's visit to Arnachal in Nov. is a signal to the Tibetans not to lose heart.Tawang has significance say some analysts because it was the route that the Dalai Lama took when he fled to India.This why Hu "Gin & Tonic" and his power drunk louts of the PRC leadership .

5.There are elements within Pak who want rapproachment with India.A tussle is going on between the peaceniks (mainly politicos) and the traditional hardliners (military).One major initiative if agreed upon will of its own volition and weight,bring about a resultant easing of tension between India and Pak,namely the trans-national gas pipeline from Iran.We have officially delayed signing on becuase of Pak's internal security situ,but the route is far from the troubled northern areas bordering Afghanistan.The truth is that the US ( and perhaps Israel) is putting undue pressure upon India not to sign any deals with Iran.The Chinese also want the deal to fail so that they can step in as Pak's saviour by becoming a partner and rnaming the pipeline as the Iran-Pak-China pipline ,further cement their relationship with Iran,very strong right now due to military sales of missiles,etc.,and cut India totally out of the picture.This way,permanent hostility with Pak remains,China's avowed intentions,as any Indo-Pak rapproachment weakens China's influence in the region considerably.An India that can make peace with Pak will have a cascading effect with Bangladesh,Nepal and other S.Asian nations apart from the ASEAN Muslim countries,and we aren't even mentioning the international Islamic caucus.

6.The apparent "weakness" of the current GOI.This is another major factor .The perceived inability or unwillingness of India to respond to 26/11 militarily has surprised a large part of the world.They do not see the totality of human existence from the Indian viewpoint and our tradition of non-violence.9/11 saw the US wage war against the Taliban and Osama.Iraq and Afghanistan saw invasions under Bush justified by the fig-leaf of Saddam's non-existant WMDs and prosecuting the "War on Terror".Our current genial PM and his team are in fact far weaker than even the Nehru govt. in '62-at least that is the perception fom the Chinese viewpoint.The surrender at S-al-S also inspires no great fear from the PRC of the Indian state.Our good doctor has also health conditions which mean that this term of his is a ceratinity to be his last, hence the speed with which the Chinese are operating.

The current controversy about the P-2 tests and our TN device "fizzling",does not help at this point as well."Santy" has made a point about the futility of using Agni-3 with a less powerful warhead against China in a media article today.

Hu "Gin & Tonic" and his coterie of drunken louts of the PRC are trying to "singe" the beard of the "lion" our dear MMS.That the GOI is now seized of the deteriorating situ is evident from the China group's meeting.Let's hope that oiur good Dr. responds in manner more in tune with the traditiond of his esteemed community who have defended India gloriously for centuries,and that if Gin and Tonic sends his gang of Middle Kingdom monkeys across into India,he will claw G&T for life!

In facing the threat from China,we Indians must all unite together and despite our misgivings on many matters,support the govt. of the day to the hilt in facing the threat from the mandarins and their monkeys.With the memory of '62,we must stand united in defeating the vile machinations of the dragon and its peurile puppet Pak.

PS:Is there going to be a meet "in camera" though?

joshvajohn · Post by **joshvajohn** » 17 Sep 2009 21:31

There is an absolute failure on the part of the Indian intelligence as they keep different ministeries wrongly informed. Contradictory informations are provided by different minitries such as one says there was incursion another says no such incidents have happenned. This is funny. I think the connectivity is not provided between the ministeries and public information and also among the intelligence. This makes our case very weak and easy for anyone including chinese to get away with what they wanted.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 17 Sep 2009 21:38

Muppalla wrote:The NSA meet is postponed as per Times Now.

Must have been overtaken by the Hindu article.

One thing the news items on this thread belie the firm belief on part of GOI experts that PRC doesnt want an armed conflcit with India. If anyone recalls there were numerous op-eds by experts that war with PRC is not expected in the future as run -up to the nuke deal.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 17 Sep 2009 23:49

Arunachal villagers: 'Presently Chinese are in our village'

Changla Gaon (Arunachal Prades:

Villagers living along the India-China border in Arunachal Pradesh said that Chinese incursions were a result of lack of border demarcation.

"They (Chinese troops) come here and Indian government is helpless…we have protection from Indian government but since the areas are not demarcated therefore it is difficult to make out," said Soya Ama, a resident of Changla Gaon village in Anjaw district of the state.

Apprehending more Chinese incursions, another villager appealed to Indian government to advance troops from their village to borders.

"We appeal to Indian government and army that they should advance towards border from our locality. Presently they are in our village and we face lot of problem because of that. We face lot of threat from China," said Anjita Kri, another resident.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 18 Sep 2009 03:33

On equal terms with China on the Pangong Lake

Indian soldiers, who patrolled the stunningly beautiful Pangong Tso Lake in Ladakh, rarely got the opportunity to enjoy the scenery. As their vintage assault boats approached the Line of Actual Control with China (two thirds of the 134-kilometer long lake is under Chinese control) sleek Chinese speedboats would surge towards them, turning sharply away at the last minute to strike a glancing blow that rocked the Indian boats.

Indian soldiers were sometimes thrown out of their boats by the impact, but they had to bear the indignity. Since 1993, when China and India signed an Agreement on Peace and Tranquillity, not a shot has been fired on the LAC.

To restrain the Chinese boat-bumpers, India equipped its lake patrols a couple of years back with bigger, more rugged, army assault boats. But, even if the bumping stopped, the Chinese boats still ran rings around the Indians.

Now, the Pangong Tso playing field will become more level. The army will soon patrol in modern, indigenously-built Fast Interceptor Boats (FIBs) that can travel faster than the Chinese boats, while carrying 16 fully equipped jawans to respond to a crisis.

Rear Admiral K C Sekhar, Chairman and Managing Director of the public sector Garden Reach Shipbuilders and Engineers (GRSE), Kolkata, confirmed to Business Standard, “We have received a Request for Proposal (RfP) from the army. They want 17 FIBs for deployment in a high altitude, extreme cold environment. We have prepared a design which we hope will be accepted.”

Sources in the army confirm that the boats will be deployed on the Pangong Tso.

GRSE is offering the army a modified version of the 12-tonne FIB it is building for the Home Ministry. Built of glass-reinforced plastic (GRP), and capable of a scorching 38 knots (70 kmph), these FIBs were designed by Greek shipbuilder, Motomarine. GRSE bought this design, along with that of a smaller 5-tonne FIB, for building 78 such boats by September 2010 for coastal police forces of states along the Bay of Bengal. Goa Shipyard Limited is simultaneously building the same boats for the Arabian Sea coast.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 18 Sep 2009 14:10

...and our "experts" say that there will be no spat at all! LIke the Yom Kippur War of the '70s,where Egypt made a surprise crossing of the Suez Canal taking the Israelis by surprise durign a festival,Diwali is soon to be upon us.Will the Chinese launch some of their famous fireworks at us for Diwali?

hulaku · Post by **hulaku** » 18 Sep 2009 17:18

IAF opens new airstrip in Ladakh

Leh: For the first time-ever, the Indian Air Force today landed an AN-32 transport aircraft at the Nyoma Advanced Landing Ground in eastern Ladakh, just 23 km from the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China.

The touchdown by the medium lift transport aircraft signifies India's capability to move its troops quickly to the forward areas, whenever required.

The IAF move comes in the wake of reports of recent Chinese intrusions into the Indian side of the LAC, including airspace violations by their helicopters and painting Mandarin letters on rocks in red.

The AN-32 aircraft, flown by Shaurya Chakra awardee Group captain SC Chafekar and carrying Western Air Command (WAC) chief Air Marshal NAK Browne and Northern Army Commander Lt Gen PC Bhardwarj, landed at Nyoma at 0625 hours, WAC spokesperson Flt Lt Priya Joshi said in New Delhi.

Nyoma ALG is situated at an altitude of 13,300 feet above sea level and is the third such ALG opened by IAF in the Ladakh region of Jammu and Kashmir in the last two years.

The ALGs opened earlier were Daulat Beg Oldi, the world's highest airfield at 16,200 feet, in May last year and Fuk Che in November that year.

http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_ia ... kh_1291255

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 18 Sep 2009 17:21

China out to clip India’s wings: RAW

Navin Upadhyay | New Delhi

Makes massive investments in neighbouring countries to spike nation’s regional aspirations

The Ministry of External Affairs may be playing down the incidents of repeated incursions by China, but the country’s external intelligence agency Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) has raised alarm bells about the Dragon embarking on a long-term strategy to encircle India and thwart it from emerging as a major regional power.

In a presentation made before the Directors General of Police and intelligence officials on Thursday, RAW pointed out that China was making massive investment in India’s neighbouring countries like Burma, Nepal and Sri Lanka and courting Pakistan to isolate India.

RAW said China was determined to prevent India from increasing its influence in the neighbourhood and that is why Beijing had decided to open its coffers to befriend these nations that badly needed foreign investments.

Outlining China’s future plan, RAW said Beijing wanted to replace the US as the world's number one super power by 2050 and at present it wanted to consolidate both its economic and military might.

The intelligence agency, which plays a major role in formulating India’s external policy, feels that since China was primarily focusing on achieving this objective, it was unlikely to undertake any military adventure against any nation, including India, which could derail its own economy.

Explaining this, a senior officer present at the meeting, told The Pioneer that the sense he got from the RAW presentation was that India was heavily relying on assessment that China would wait for four decades and emerge as world’s number one before flexing its military might. “Many of us have serious doubt about the agency’s assessment,” he said.

Commenting on the recent Chinese incursions, RAW said these were part of the well-planned design to keep India on the tenterhooks and force it to deviate attention from its primary development objectives. “As such we feel that the pinpricks of incursion would continue,” the RAW said.

Another senior official told The Pioneer that India did not want to play up reports of the Chinese incursions and come under ‘popular’ pressure to go for massive military expansion and arm acquisition to match the Chinese might. “While China was in a position to undertake both military and economic expansion simultaneously, India could ill-afford to get into such a race,” he said.

In RAW analysis of things, China’s relations with Pakistan are facing some strain due to terror attacks inside China by Muslim terrorists who have been trained in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, a meeting of top officials convened by National Security Adviser MK Narayanan on Thursday to discuss the situation along the Sino-Indian border has been postponed.

The meeting was of the China Study Group that comprises senior officials, including Cabinet Secretary KM Chandrasekhar and Secretaries of Defence, Home and Foreign Ministries.

The meeting was understood to have been postponed in the wake of “media hype” on the Chinese incursions along the Sino-Indian border and fresh dates are yet to be worked out.

There was intense media focus on the meeting in the wake of recent reports of incursions by the Chinese Army in Ladakh, including air dropping of expired food cans, painting of rocks red, besides others.

Top officials of the three armed forces and the Intelligence Bureau also attended the meeting.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 18 Sep 2009 17:32

The Chinese will strike when they spot a weakness in their "enemy",not wait for four decades! If we do not beef up our defences,we will suffer another '62.RAW is wide off the mark on this aspect.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 18 Sep 2009 20:38

Although, first strike from China can not be ruled out, I doubt any serious armed conflict will erupt in near future. This does not mean that we sit quite and do nothing. Pointing 10,000+ missiles towards Beijing and other trade centric cities, may curb some of their recent adventures, while making sure that they understand that we have missiles pointing at them.

I'm not a military analyst, far from it, but I think we need to take a look at it more strategically. China is enjoying best time in several centuries in terms of economy and international status. While, it continues to bring its people out of poverty, it has to continually spending on infrastructure and building their economy. The last thing they want is some kind of armed conflict with India, which they know will be dealt with much force. Today, thousands companies and millions of individuals around the world are waiting their products delivered from China on time. Chinese understand this fact. Why would they jeopardize this sweet spot they are into by initiating an armed conflict? So, they appear to be taking a COLD WAR approach with India. In fact, I think we are already in a COLD WAR with China. By initiating these border mischiefs they are testing our resolve.

As I said, I'm not an expert on border issue, but if there is one thing I'm positive about is that when there is uncertainty, actual or perceived border in this case, one who take aggressive and firm stand gets to define what border is. Unfortunately, we are not doing it very effectively.

mraghu · Post by **mraghu** » 18 Sep 2009 22:27

We should not be looking at how big and powerful china is but as Mark Twain said a long time back ""It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog."

So How much of a fight is there in in PLA/china ? or if we apply it to ourseleves How much are we ready to defend and offcourse win this fight ? If we need to fight the chinese what is our objective, Is it to just defend the LAC or move forward into Tibet ?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 19 Sep 2009 01:58

On the Mil Forum we have the Mil Scenarios thread where as here we have real incursions thread.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 19 Sep 2009 06:17

http://www.dnaindia.com/opinion/column_ ... al_1290512

China's Sun Tzu strategy for Arunachal

Venkatesan VembuTuesday, September 15, 2009 20:45 IST

Recent conniptions in the media and strategic analysis space, in India as well as in China, have served to highlight and ratchet up tension along the disputed border.
In some cases, this has even led to loose, irresponsible talk of a war: that's something that both countries can ill-afford, given that for all their blustery talk of being 'emerging superpowers', they are both still developing economies with huge numbers of their populations living in poverty.

Indicatively, China's per capita GDP, adjusted for purchasing power parity, puts it even lower down the order than Angola and El Salvador; India fares even worse, figuring even lower than Cape Verde and the Republic of Congo.

True, these rankings underplay China's and India's other strengths, but they nevertheless provide a sobering statistical backdrop to the testosterone-driven swagger that's increasingly manifest on both sides of the Himalayas.

It's fair to say that despite the repeated border incursions -- and without prejudice to the gravity of such incidents -- the more real threat to India's hold on Arunachal Pradesh (over which China claims sovereignty) may come not from the battlefield, but from elsewhere.

A better understanding of China's game plan may be gleaned from The Art of War, the ancient Chinese treatise on military strategy. Supreme excellence, says Sun Tzu in the classic, is in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting. And all warfare, he records, is based on deception.

That's precisely how the Chinese plan is unfolding. Alongside the border incursions, Chinese strategists have been working rather effectively to "internationalise" the Arunachal Pradesh issue and project it as "disputed territory".

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 19 Sep 2009 07:38

Creating a new IAF strip in Leh and all other Army movement news are all seems to BS. The most intelligent and well educated PM says it is all just media.

Media blowing Chinese incursions out of proportion: PM

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh [ Images ] today said that the media was playing up the reports of Chinese incursions across the border out of proportions.

At an Iftar party hosted by him at his residence, he said the media was playing up the issue out of proportion.

Singh said Chinese Ambassador to India Zhang Yan met National Security Advisor M K Narayanan yesterday and had good discussions with him.

The prime minister was asked about incursions by Chinese troops which media has been reporting about vigorously lately.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 19 Sep 2009 10:49

The time has come to assert that Tibet is at the very least an Indian protectorate,oif not Indian territory.We can also dispute China's occupation of Indian land.The Chinese have just successfullly stopped an ADB loan for AP thanks to the efforts of Japan and Oz who voted with China! Our PMO and Ministry of Entertainment and Appeasement must be delirious with joy at India's latest diplomatic defeat!

Raj Malhotra · Post by **Raj Malhotra** » 19 Sep 2009 13:01

I posted some time on this thread that Indian govt will deny any mischief by China. This is exactly what is happening even now and NSA is going a step ahead and telling media to help the GoI in denying everything. In fact, if you listen carefully to his interview, he is indirectly saying that our policies provoked 1962 and we should not to do it again.

kshirin · Post by **kshirin** » 19 Sep 2009 13:41

RayC I loved that picture. Philip I would like to add one more item to your analysis - Obama's decision to pull out missiles from Poland and CR means elimination of a major road block in relations with Russia. Better US-Russia relations, though historically going against the grain of balance of power politics explained by Kissinger in his book “Diplomacy”, would mean Russia feels less pressurised to embrace the Dragon, which ultimately results less pressure by the Dragon on us.

We must not forget that despite the economic MAD, US is NOT comfortable with China’s rise (the Quadrennial Pentagon assessments and other reports), and cannot be happy at signs of Chinese aggressiveness even vis-à-vis us which could be a preview of things to come on other fronts. The Chinese are overplaying their hand in what they think is their window of opportunity, with Obama retreating to attend to domestic priorities.

Our priority now should be to ramp up our industrial-technological capacities quickly, and come closer to Russia to absorb its fantastic pool of technologically qualified manpower – a strategic resource I am sure the Chinese are availing of – as well as help an old friend by contributing to its economy in some new creative way.

Dipankar Gupta's Book “Caged Phoenix” depressed me - we are perched precariously on top of an economy based on a mass of technologically backward SMEs which sucks the blood of an illiterate, unskilled and starving working class. One sees the rack renting going on at all levels in the city, his statistics should come as no surprise. But we have to upgrade the SME sector, make it more like Germany’s.

Rahulji hope the fonts are OK, i don't always recheck my posts so I missed those earlier requests.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 19 Sep 2009 13:41

Here comes from Army Chief:

http://news.rediff.com/report/2009/sep/ ... -chief.htm

Chief of Army staff General Deepak Kapoor said on Saturday that there has been no increase in Chinese incursions along the Sino-Indian border.

"I would say that the prime minister made a statement yesterday (Friday) itself that there has not been any more incursions. The number of incursions is at the same level as last year so there is no cause of worry," General Kapoor told mediapersons.

"I would request the media to maintain restrain and not outplay the issue," he added. Commenting on the Pakistani infiltration along the Line of Control [ Images ], General Kapoor said, "There have been ceasefire violations, but we have a mechanism in place where the issue is addressed immediately with a hotline functioning on both sides. Also, border personnel meetings are held where the issue is resolved."

He confirmed that the reports of infiltration along the LoC and international border were correct, but added that Indian forces were well deployed to keep infiltration under check. On Friday, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh [ Images ] said India had a very long border with China and he had no information about anything serious happening there.

Regarding a media report on Chinese incursions he said the government information system may be faulty and that could be the reason for the media playing up reports of incursions.

The lacunae would be rectified soon, he added.

Raj Malhotra · Post by **Raj Malhotra** » 19 Sep 2009 17:18

hulaku wrote:IAF opens new airstrip in Ladakh

Leh: For the first time-ever, the Indian Air Force today landed an AN-32 transport aircraft at the Nyoma Advanced Landing Ground in eastern Ladakh, just 23 km from the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China.

The touchdown by the medium lift transport aircraft signifies India's capability to move its troops quickly to the forward areas, whenever required.

The IAF move comes in the wake of reports of recent Chinese intrusions into the Indian side of the LAC, including airspace violations by their helicopters and painting Mandarin letters on rocks in red.

The AN-32 aircraft, flown by Shaurya Chakra awardee Group captain SC Chafekar and carrying Western Air Command (WAC) chief Air Marshal NAK Browne and Northern Army Commander Lt Gen PC Bhardwarj, landed at Nyoma at 0625 hours, WAC spokesperson Flt Lt Priya Joshi said in New Delhi.

Nyoma ALG is situated at an altitude of 13,300 feet above sea level and is the third such ALG opened by IAF in the Ladakh region of Jammu and Kashmir in the last two years.

The ALGs opened earlier were Daulat Beg Oldi, the world's highest airfield at 16,200 feet, in May last year and Fuk Che in November that year.
http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_ia ... kh_1291255

This is just the modern version of the forward policy of 1962.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 19 Sep 2009 17:28

The time has come to assert that Tibet is at the very least an Indian protectorate,oif not Indian territory.We can also dispute China's occupation of Indian land.

RAW has concluded something very obvious indeed. That China seeks to make AP disputed. What is the strategy RAW suggests if any at all? The most prudent thing is certainly to claim Kailash and Mansarover and make official noises into looking into the Chinese claim over Tibet. The most logical and prudent initiative in these matters is to take the 'disputed' territory business outside our borders and focus on their held parts. India has everything in its favor regarding Tibet. Yet it is scoring self goals.

India should change it's stance solely for one reason: That China is a new neighbour. It is not living as a neighbour in the same spirit that Tibet and India lived peacefully for millenia. That is the reason enough of India not wanting to endorse China's aggression of Tibet any longer.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 Sep 2009 02:46

Could we collate who reported what please?

For instance what did IBN and NDTV report? etc., etc

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 20 Sep 2009 04:00

RAW has concluded something very obvious indeed. That China seeks to make AP disputed. What is the strategy RAW suggests if any at all?

China has a little problem-the Monpas call themselves Indian. Tibetans don't call themselves Chinese.

Ergo Chinese undies describing various non-Euclidean shapes. This is not 1962 redux. This is 1971 redux. It was the same bumbling RAW that prepared and fertilized the soil for 9 months so the IA would have a cakewalk.

tripathi · Post by **tripathi** » 20 Sep 2009 04:11

I think our politician have some grand vision for whole south asia thats the reason north east and kashmir are being silently compromised with china and pak respectively.And for greater peace in the region its not a bigger sacrifice for them.Likewise they might have great vision to solve all territorial disputes with all our neighbors which may arise in future for greater peace.

shaardula · Post by **shaardula** » 20 Sep 2009 05:30

al jazeera on the issue:

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 20 Sep 2009 08:58

Chandan Mitra in dailypioneer.com:

Deconstructing China

Chandan Mitra

An underlying sense of fear determines our response to China. This is not only on account of the ignominious defeat it inflicted upon us in that fateful winter of 1962, but also because it has surged leaps ahead of India militarily, economically and in terms of world perception. Deep down, we remain cagey about China, unable to guess its moves, unsure if we should accept their protestations of pacific intentions or always look out for hidden meanings in their assertions.

In our heart of hearts we know that India is no match for China when it comes to a conflict on the border or any other arena. Their military superiority would allow them to cascade down the Himalayan slopes in no time. Probably this lurking fear of the crouching dragon leads to frantic reactions each time reports surface of transgressions along the McMahon Line, which China steadfastly refuses to recognise. From this it is a small step to hysteria.

And it is hysteria that has been fuelled by the media over the last fortnight, starting with chalk scribbles on rock faces in Ladakh, to alleged sniping at ITBP patrols that apparently caused two injuries (since denied). The electronic media in particular panders to these anxieties by showing file footage of Army convoys zigzagging through mountain passes as if total mobilisation has begun. Newspaper headlines scream almost daily about fresh incursions while lambasting the Government for its lackadaisical response.

Authorities are lampooned for suggesting that along the largely undemarcated border it is common for Chinese troops to foray into Indian territory leaving tell-tale signs behind, such as empty cigarette packets. The additional factoid, that often Indian soldiers do the same albeit unwittingly, is dismissed as deliberate downplaying of the Chinese threat. Perhaps the Prime Minister's rejection of these reports and the Army chief's categorical declaration that incursions so far this year have been no more or no less than past years, will help douse media's ardour.

Having said that, it must be acknowledged the threat is serious, more so because we are quite helpless against it. Unlike China, India learnt no lessons from the 1962 conflict. Beijing withdrew its troops from Arunachal Pradesh (then NEFA) not because they could not have swept across the Brahmaputra Valley thereafter, but due to logistic considerations of holding on to the land thus conquered. China pulled out its troops while volubly reiterating its claim to the whole of Arunachal Pradesh, which it continues to officially describe as Southern Tibet. Especially over the last two decades, China has systematically developed a massive web of infrastructure in Tibet. The world's highest railway line now connects interior China with Lhasa: Millions were not spent by Beijing simply to ferry tourists to mystical Tibet; the railway is essentially a military lifeline, just as six-lane highways built recently across the vast plateau ensures rapid movement of troops and war equipment. A string of airfields and missile sites complete the gigantic network of military preparedness.

Unlike India, China has very clear strategic aims and goes about implementing them with patience and precision. Their objective is to keep the Arunachal issue on the boil: Pretending it is part of the People's Republic, it doggedly refuses visas to people from the State saying they are welcome as it is since they are "Chinese citizens". This ploy needs to be viewed as part of Beijing's pressure tactic to compel New Delhi into settling the age-old boundary dispute by conceding some parts of Arunachal, mainly the Tawang district, to China in exchange for minor adjustments in the Aksai Chin region of Ladakh where, in Nehru's oft-quoted remark, "not a blade of grass grows".

If the Chinese Army has been rather proactive recently in Ladakh, Arunachal and the Chicken's Finger strip between Sikkim and Bhutan, it is also with a specific purpose. Beijing has become increasingly allergic towards the Dalai Lama and India's tolerance of his followers living as refugees here. The revered monk's forthcoming visit to some Buddhist monasteries in Tawang has irked China no end. They regard this almost a deliberate violation of China's conviction that the whole State belongs to it. Thus a persona non-grata like the Dalai Lama is seen as an illegal intruder! Obviously India cannot accept this contention, which explains the recent noises emanating from across the border.

Looking back, I feel India lost a huge opportunity to settle the boundary issue when the NDA was voted out in 2004. I had accompanied Atal Bihari Vajpayee on his historic visit to Beijing in 2003 during which not only did the Chinese revise their characterisation of Sikkim as an independent kingdom and classified it as a State of India in their maps, but also agreed to the setting up of a high-level structure to resolve the boundary dispute. More importantly, the principle of settlement was broadly agreed: It was decided that the revised demarcation of the international border would not disturb "settled populations" as far as possible.

This was correctly interpreted to mean China's agreement to cause minimum dislocation in Arunachal, including Tawang, where the population has been long settled. In return, India could redraw the boundary in Aksai Chin, which is already occupied by China and strategically more important to them than us. Government sources indicated that the two countries had also agreed informally to delink this settlement from the issue of the slice of land in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir ceded by Islamabad to help Beijing build the Karakoram Highway. This, New Delhi agreed, could be taken up later when the entire issue of Jammu and Kashmir was settled with Pakistan.

It now appears China has given up hoping for an early resolution of the boundary dispute. Chinese officials have often told me they are frustrated by the slow pace of deliberations, pointing out that Beijing has settled similar disputes with Russia and Vietnam with relative ease in recent years. Meanwhile, China has become extremely prickly over Tibet following the near-uprising in Lhasa in the run-up to last year's Olympics in Beijing. Their paranoia has increased further after the Islamic/ethnic unrest among the Uighurs of Xinjiang.

Still, I don't believe China is about to provoke India into another war. Reoccupation of Arunachal is an insignificant part of Beijing's larger global and regional vision. Emerging as an economic superpower is China's first priority followed by a military strategy to encircle and keep India permanently on the defensive. This is being done by constructing what they call a "string of pearls" around us — ports in the Coco Islands of Myanmar, Gwadar in Pakistan and Trincomalee in Sri Lanka.

India has no option but to be defensive and cautious, build adequate infrastructure along the Himalayas and keep a strict vigil on Nepali Maoists who are increasingly cozying up to Beijing. India must also aggressively foray into the Indian Ocean with the aim of emerging as its dominant power through a modern, effective blue-water navy. Undue preoccupation with pinpricks on the border will distract New Delhi from pursuit of these long-term strategic aims. We need to learn from China, not fall into its trap.

Yogi_G · Post by **Yogi_G** » 20 Sep 2009 11:20

In our heart of hearts we know that India is no match for China when it comes to a conflict on the border or any other arena. Their military superiority would allow them to cascade down the Himalayan slopes in no time.

It is interesting to note the perception of the equation between India and China in terms of military might amongst the media. While most of them tend to conclude on the lines that China is more militarily strong, the other perceptions also vary along lines of China having a cakewalk in rolling into Indian territory to China's military might being insufficient to take on India along the Himalayas.

Given China's secrecy of its military spending, aided by the Airforce chief's assertion that the IAF knows nothing of Chinese power and strategy, will the truth of the real equation become crystal clear when a confrontation does indeed happen?

RayC · Post by **RayC** » 20 Sep 2009 12:22

In our heart of hearts we know that India is no match for China when it comes to a conflict on the border or any other arena. Their military superiority would allow them to cascade down the Himalayan slopes in no time. Probably this lurking fear of the crouching dragon leads to frantic reactions each time reports surface of transgressions along the McMahon Line, which China steadfastly refuses to recognise. From this it is a small step to hysteria.

In the heart of whose heart are we afraid of the Chinese?

satya · Post by **satya** » 20 Sep 2009 15:48

Since when Chandan Mitra became known for his in-depth journalism. Lucky by chance in his case , this person's newspaper got backing from one of political parties & suddenly he feels i know all , this person single handedly with some help from coterie of LKA was responsible for ensuring no pact with BJD in Orissa owing to his zero personal & political skills worse than a newcomer . Its time he goes back where he came from & hopefully not nominated again to Rajya Sabha .Couldn't he for a second ponder over the request of IA's top to GoI for allowing it to do armed patrolling . Opening of forward airfields have been thought through & only then was it decided to do so knowing very well its close proximity to LAC , should tell a lot about our defense forces .But then if likes of Chandan Mitra look at this facts , he has nothing to write so as in former USSR they said in news there's no truth & in truth there's no news & man gotta earn his living with I&B ministry looking a bridge too far with LKA gone .
There have been talk of pro-PRC business lobby in India , its a myth for there's none , yes there are traders who have benefited enormously from importing cheap goods but most of them have their hands in other businesses .Although recently PRC has tried to make gains into power sector providing not only cheaper equipments but also credit lines at some real low interest rates but i have not seen any sort of special bonding between Indian businesses with PRC ones ( screw them so long its free , moment they ask , go for goras is the mantra when it comes to PRC & its manufacturing but then its the same stick that goras have used against PRC till recently) .Its all GoI's initiative to make 21st century's Sons of Heavens understand the importance of Indian Market for their billion stomachs .

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 20 Sep 2009 16:05

Kshirin,you have made a vital point.I've just posted in the "oil" thread,a view about US-Russian "business as ususal",after recent events and the conflicting views in US policy makers ,those who favour restoring a relationship with Russia and those who prefer doing a deal with China.

Our strategy with China now is to repay them back in the same coin.If China can dispute Arunachal Pradesh's ownership,so should we dispute China all obver the Himalayas,as well as a public surge in relations with Taiwan,economic and military,just short of full recognition.China should be privately warned that we will recognise Taiwan and Tibet's independence if ther is any further Himalayan mishchief from its side.At this moment in time,with US protction,China cannot invade Tiawan and any invasion or military action against it will kill its international status as a responsible world pwoer totally.What will China do if India recognises Taiwan? Stiil protected by the US,China cannot invade and win a miliatry victory at least for another decade or so.The US can easily establish a naval blockade of China right from the S.China Sea upto japan.Its naval forces are just too strong for the PLAN as they also have huge logistic and even naval support if need be from the two pwoerful Japanese and Korean navies.

Will it then try and invade Arunachal Pradesh or eleswhere on the border?That would also be a foolish mistake,as India today is not the India of '62.True,we are at a disadvantage right now militarily,needing time to build up our infrastructure and modernise and beef up the forces,but we can also create havoc for China in the IOR.In the Himalayas,the Chinese might very well penetrate upto a point,but their logistics one they enter Indian territory would be sorely hampered and the IAF could decimate their forces.China will also use its air force if we use the IAF,and launch numerous SSMs to attempt to destroy IAF bases and important IA centres of command.Likewise,we should induct a large number of SSMs-Prithvi,Brahmos and the short range Agni safely inside Indian territory all along the frontline.Blunting and then destroying China's invading forces should be our objective,as well as creating havoc for China inside Tibet by arming the Tibetans.This is an area where we should not hesitate to invest in as China is doing enormous mischief against us by arming and supplying the N-East militants though Burma and B'Desh. The destruction of key parts of the Tibetan railway and the Karakorum Highway must be immediately accomplished within the first few hours of any major invasion or military action by China.

This is where China desperately needs paki military support for keeping India off balance through terrorism and tension on the border,keeping India occupied on two fronts.The recent Paki firing was to remind India that the Paki front could also be opened up too if China desired it,as we have reportedly "mobilised" some forces all along the Indo-Sino "border/LOAC".There is no other alternative now for India but to massively beef up the infrastructure all along the front with China and increase the numbers and lethality of the services not forgetting our strategic deterrent,in the light of Pak's massive increase in production of N-material for its warheads using both the HEU and Plutonium route.

kshirin · Post by **kshirin** » 20 Sep 2009 22:26

Philip thanks for noticing my post, I will look up the oil thread. It is important to have a global canvas nowadays to understand the various tradeoffs. Russia should have greater weightage in our policy, lest Biden's prophecy comes true and Chinese takeover of Siberia become a fait accompli. Germany should also figure more, it is the only country which had all along advocated a more understanding policy towards Russia lest it be completely alienated. Angela Merkel has welcomed the Obama decision. Let us hope Russia is gently sucked back westwards, lessening its dependence on China. Let us also hope we enter into a major tehcnological alliance with Russia (and others) to counter growing Dragon technological prowess. Let us hope we overcome technological obsolescence in the bulk of our economy. let us hope...

kshirin · Post by **kshirin** » 20 Sep 2009 23:08

Just read the oil thread and your comments.
Apart from pure self interest, there were voices in the pre election Obama camp advocating a rapprochement with Russia, which may also be why the US is indulging Russia by restarting the START talks. I had the privilege many moons ago, before Obama got elected, of hearing former Senator Sam Nunn, who had co-launched the Nuclear Threat Initiative and coauthored the article on a world free of N weapons with Kissinger (yes, Kissinger!), Shultz etc.. Nunn was known to have endorsed Barak Obama and be part of his team of advisors.
Nunn emphasized the need to involve Russia in any US/western security strategy and also that it was not in anyone’s interest to push Russia out of the European arc. A long-term role for Russia in the Euro-Atlantic area needed to be worked out – an idea very similar to what President Medvedev has proposed. He had questioned the need for NATO expansion and in this context appreciated Chancellor Merkel’s position on NATO expansion. And warned of an escalated arms race which no one needed in Europe as a consequence of NATO expansion. He stated that US-Russia cooperation could help lead the world toward nuclear weapons reductions and added this should be a priority for the new US President, starting with the issue of missile defenses in Europe. Knowing this background and always questioning the foolhardy Neocon antipathy towards Russia, I was wondering why Obama/Biden were aping the neocons. Clearly now they are not.

Bhaskar · Post by **Bhaskar** » 22 Sep 2009 04:55

It seems this was all a media Hype.
Its summer and there is no snow, in such conditions, there are usually problems with incursions into another territory.

IB4TL.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Sep 2009 08:41

How much is PRC posturing due to US meltdown?

Folks need to counter Mr Mitra's psy-ops and misreading the situation.

arun · Post by **arun** » 22 Sep 2009 12:41

X Posted.

Excerpt restricted to border incursions by the Peoples Republic of China National from an interview of our Security Advisor M K Narayanan by CNN-IBN’s Karan Thapar.

Interview has very much more on Indo-PRC relations:

Devil's Advocate: India doesn't have China complex: NSA

Karan Thapar / CNN-IBN

Published on Sun, Sep 20, 2009 at 22:00, Updated on Mon, Sep 21, 2009 at 18:06 in India section

Karan Thapar: Let’s start with China first; in recent weeks there is a widespread perception that Chinese incursions across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) have increased and many people say that in fact the incursion is coming deeper and deeper into Indian territory. What’s the truth about these perceptions?

M K Narayanan: There haven’t been any increase if you take the last few years. And I really find it hard to explain why there has been so much media hype on this question. I think it’s disturbing because it tends to give an impression and then people get attuned to that kind of attitude. Almost all the so-called incursions which have taken place have taken place in areas which in a sense are viewed as being disputed by one side or the other.

In terms of number of incursions; I think there has been hardly any increase. And there is much more knowledge about what’s happening because I think people are much more alive to these questions etc.

Occasionally maybe the inroads are little deeper than what they might have been in the past. So I don’t think there is anything alarming about it and I think we have a good understanding about the whole issue.

Karan Thapar: Let me underline two important things that you said: firstly that there has been no worrying or remarkable increase in the number of incursions, is that right?

M K Narayanan: Yes.

Karan Thapar: And secondly even though one or two of the incursions may have been deeper than before these are not alarming situations?

M K Narayanan: No.

Karan Thapar: So is it in fact just media hype that is building up a sense of concern?

M K Narayanan: As a National Security Advisor and as part of the National Security architecture or mechanism as the case maybe, I am unable to explain why this kind of--one can always argue that any incursion, small or big could be a cause of concern. But having been through this--not only now but in the past, I don’t think there is any reason for us to feel particularly concerned as to what’s happening.

Our idea is that our border should be tranquil. I think as far as possible we would like to keep it tranquil. I think my counterpart and I have discussed this from time to time.

Not only the two of us as the special representatives but political leadership on both sides is very keen to maintain peace and tranquility on the border and I think that explains a lot.

Karan Thapar: As you must be aware certain opposition politicians, Mulayam Singh Yadav for one, have even called for special sessions of parliament. The Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) has asked for a white paper on the subject.

Are you saying to me that those are exaggerated political reactions?

M K Narayanan: When one sees what comes in the media almost on a day-to-day basis, I presume political leaders will be concerned is this happening? We want to know more about it etc. And I don’t want to blame the media but the question is, why there is so much reporting?

I wont even use the word exaggerated reporting on the point. But I think this is a national security issue. It isn’t a kind of a game that we are playing and the more you raise people’s concerns, the tension could rise and we would then be facing a situation of the kind that we wish to avoid.

Karan Thapar: In other words the media by its overreaction could end up creating a problem that it wants to avoid?

M K Narayanan: Could create a problem and I have been through 1962. Then, of course we didn’t have the media of this kind. What we need to be careful of is that we don’t have an unwarranted incident or an accident of some kind and that’s what we are trying to avoid.

But there is always concern that if things go on like this someone, somewhere might lose his cool and something might go wrong.

Karan Thapar: In other words the media might accidentally, unintentionally, provoke someone to do something that otherwise would not have happened?

M K Narayanan: I don’t think they would provoke but people may get mesmerised into doing something, seeing a ghost where it probably doesn’t exist.

Karan Thapar: It’s also been reported that the army has sought the lifting of restrictions on patrolling along what’s considered sensitive sectors of the border. Is that a fact that the army want these restrictions removed?

M K Narayanan: It’s not as if new restrictions have been placed. There are limits of patrolling which are placed from time to time, and it’s a calibrated exercise.

If you suddenly think that things are--there could be problems in a particular direction, that you may feel that you need to be little careful, sometimes the limits are--I mean everybody who is on the border is conscious of the fact that you need to keep the border safe and therefore there are different views. But the decisions are taken at the highest level basically by the China Study Group and then these are approved by the cabinet committee.

Karan Thapar: But it has been suggested that there could be differences within the government over the nature of the patrolling.

It is said in the press that the army wants a more assertive response --the MEA (Ministry of External Affairs) is a bit concerned about offending or provoking the Chinese--is there any truth to these differences of opinions?

M K Narayanan: There is always (differences)--why only between--even I suppose within the army or within the MEA or within Ministry of Home Affairs there could be differences because we are human beings. That’s why you have a China Study Group which looks at all aspects of the question. Then over and above that as I said there is the Cabinet committee which looks at it.

There are perceptions of what you need to do. An organised government, which has various checks and balances, looks at these questions and sees what is in the best interest of the country. Each individual can’t do what he likes............................

CNN-IBN

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 22 Sep 2009 14:57

Hope IM and GOI build a road infrastructure all along the Chinese border.

To fortify Arunachal, military takes over 5 air bases - India Today

India has begun fortifying its borders in Arunachal Pradesh against China. As the first step, five air bases in the state have been taken over by the military.

On the night of September 18, the Pasighat, Tuting, Vijaynagar, Walong and Mechuka bases close to the China border were passed from the Airports Authority of India to the defence ministry.

Headlines Today has learnt that the five bases were transferred to the military authorities after a quick clearance from the Prime Minister's Office.

The bases were initially only to be upgraded by the defence ministry, but now it has been given full control.

Headlines Today has learnt that under military control, the five bases will be used by the air force and the army to increase surveillance across crucial stretches of the border with China.

The defence ministry has already drawn up a fresh airborne surveillance plan for the eastern sector. The plan will coincide with the visit of the Dalai Lama to Tawang in Arunachal.

After activating some air bases in Ladakh, the fortification of Arunachal Pradesh is being seen as a message to China that not only was the state a part of India, it was also being actively guarded.

More defence measures were in the pipeline in the state. These included the setting up of air force headquarters in the state and an airstrip for spy Drones at Anini

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 22 Sep 2009 23:42

Interesting Read

From the collapse of the Soviet Union until September 11, 2001, China was able to successfully use its security concerns within the Xinjiang Uigher Autonomous Region to build alliances with the newly formed states of Central Asia. Russia’s domestic concerns and the U.S.’s focus on fostering democratic principles in the fresh nations allowed China to form multilateral organizations favorable to its concerns and establish economic ties with its western neighboring states. These conditions were of great importance to Beijing’s strategies for containing separatist movements within Xinjiang, but following the attacks of September 11, 2001, the U.S. reengaged Central Asia and overpowered the multilateral agreements that China had established.

China’s attempts to adapt to the new environment initially met with mixed results. Beijing attempted to link the Xinjiang separatists to the U.S.’s “war on terror,” but even after a Uigher militant group was placed on the official U.S. of terrorist organizations, Washington was generally cool to China’s claims. Recently, China has been moving to reestablish the economic and cooperative security ties that it previously established with Russia, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan in order to contain the Uigher militants, reinforce Beijing’s claim over the Xinjiang region and to prevents a strategic “encircling” by the United States. Russia’s situation in Chechnya has prevented Moscow from countering Beijing’s efforts, and in the current environment it likely that Moscow will welcome China’s attempt to regain regional power from the U.S. Should China be successful in this strategy, it will have profound effects not only on the status of the Xinjinag region, but also on the geopolitical environment of Central Asia.

More here
http://risk.typepad.com/blog/2009/07/pi ... ecome.html

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Sep 2009 23:54

The odd thing is the PRC is unable to quell internal dissent (Falun Gong, Tian Men Square etc) and dissensions (Uigher, Tibet, and rural displaced people etc) even after linking it to external actors and global offensives. It looks like it will reach critical mass soon.

Pulikeshi · Post by **Pulikeshi** » 23 Sep 2009 03:50

ramana wrote: It looks like it will reach critical mass soon.

Maybe, but history of China (irrespective of territorial area) indicates a desire of the people to centralize and create a strong center.
Even if critical mass were to occur, the end result could only be a territorially smaller but centralized China ala FSU...

Recent events indicate that the Uigher issue is more sensitive than any others.
This is where the Chinese need to be wary of their all weather friends.
This is also where it could begin to give...