West Asia News and Discussions

[kmkraoind]

Palestinians and Israelis Clash at Jerusalem Holy Site

Iran tests longest range missiles

Something is not good in Middle East. Why suddenly Iran starting to test first short-range missiles, now long-range missiles.

[shyamd]

Professor JB Kelly

He paid a particularly instructive visit to Buraimi, Oman, from where British-officered Trucial Scouts had ejected an American-backed Saudi force (engaged on an oil-grabbing mission) in 1955. He and the political officer, Martin Buckmaster, soon picked up signs that the Saudis were retaliating by stirring up the tribes of inner Oman with arms and money. Kelly passed this information on to the British political resident in Bahrain, Sir Bernard Burrows, who discounted it, coming as it did from a Gulf novice.

Burrows returned on leave to London, only to be called back to the Gulf in a hurry in July 1957 when the Imamate rebellion broke out in Oman. Kelly's first publication, written for Chatham House, was a paper on the revolt.

[svinayak]

From email

Economically Dubai is going through tough times. Their oil has dried up and they haven been acting as a place to park black money of the corrupt generals and politicians in the rest of the Arab/Muslim world.

There has been a drive to educate the Muslims and award them plum positions in the govt and industrial sector. The benefactors of this include Jordanians, Palestinians, Lebanese, Libiyans etc many of them religious fanatics and Hindu haters. Local Arabs in Dubai still have a softer attitude towards Indians but these Muslims from outside the emirates and downright hostile. In a business their first priority to award any contract would be an Arab muslim, then comes Pakistani or Bangladeshi, then Indian muslim and the final straw is a non-muslim from India - specifically a Hindu - if none of the others can deliver. If that happens they make sure that payments are delayed, and maximum harassment is done to pull down this Hindu. So Dubai is becoming an increasingly difficult place for Hindus to do business.

This is the experience of a close relative of mine who owns a multi-million $ (around 20m turnover) business in Dubai. He has been there for the last 35 years. I don't want to give more precise info which may identify him.

[ramana]

Palestinians and Israelis Clash at Jerusalem Holy Site

Iran tests longest range missiles

Something is not good in Middle East. Why suddenly Iran starting to test first short-range missiles, now long-range missiles.

From Nightwatch 9/28/09

Iran: Military authorities test-fired the long-range Shahab-3 ballistic missile, the state TV reported.

Yesterday, the Revolutionary Guards test-fired short and medium range missiles. This is the third day of exercises that include missile firings.

The Shahab-3 has a range of up to 2,000km (1,240 miles), potentially putting Israel and American bases in the Gulf within range, analysts say. Iranian media announced that the Revolutionary Guards successfully tested the Shahab 3 missile as part of several days of military war game exercises.

"Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) successfully tests Shahab 3 long-range rockets as part of Great Prophet 4 exercises," Iranian Al-Alam TV reported. "Iranian missiles are able to target any place that threatens Iran," said Abdollah Araqi, a senior Revolutionary Guard commander, according to the semiofficial Fars news agency.

The point is that the Iranian boasts are accurate, not so much because of the Shahab-3 but because of the Shahab-4, which is a North Korean derivative of the Soviet SS-N-6 submarine launched ballistic missile. This is one of the most reliable and most tested missiles ever created and the Iranians have it. It was built for the purpose of carrying a nuclear warhead. And North Korea sold a brigade of them to Iran in 2005, for those who missed the press reporting.

Iran has a missile that it seldom tests or parades that can hit Jerusalem. The missile is primarily a nuclear warhead carrier. It is not the Shahab-3 which is a knock-off NoDong from North Korea. The Shahab 4 with a nuclear warhead is the existential threat to Israel.

The noteworthy point from Iran’s missile exercises is that it wants the rest of the world to believe it has so many missiles in its arsenal that it can waste some in live firings during military training. That implies batch testing of old missiles to ensure their reliability after years in storage. But these are primarily tactical and theater missiles, not strategic weapons.

Missile shooting is not cheap and takes time to prepare. The Iranians are showing they have missiles to spare. Not even the North Koreans do that regularly.

Politics. One larger point is that none of this is new. The so-called Israeli attack threat is old hat. Iran has proven time and again that its leadership and electorate are unmoved by Western sanctions.

There is no secret sanctions formula that will achieve some epiphany in the ayatollahs whereby they will abandon weapons voluntarily. If the people must suffer, they suffer so the revolution will survive, so the religious thinking goes.

There is no sanctions regime that outside states are prepared to initiate whose effects would be so severe as to bring the Ayatollahs to compromise. The Iranian leaders have demonstrated repeatedly their willingness to maintain the nuclear programs to the last Iranian, however long he or she might survive. They have been re-elected to office repeatedly too.


Non-proliferation is a moot point in Iran. Internal regime change is a wistful policy because the internal issues generating unrest do not concern national security or even the nature of the Islamic Republic. On those issues, no group disagrees.

In other words, a kinder, gentler and friendlier Iran is likely to be an Islamic Republic that seeks to dominate the Gulf region and will still have a nuclear weapons and missile delivery programs.

Thus it is not clear just what the West expects from the 1 October talks, but an end to a nuclear power and to a clandestine nuclear weapons program is not attainable. Nothing on the agenda is new and nothing has been achieved in years of Western confrontation. Iran’s programs are more advanced now than ever and the West has nothing to show for its sanctions and huffing and puffing during the past 20 years.

Whatever the West thought it was doing, it did not work. Phenomenologically, what appears to be taking place is the exhaustion of diplomatic options. That usually means that discussion of military options is far advanced.

Readers should keep in mind that there is no unilateral Israeli military option. That is a hoax of official propaganda. Israeli forces might be the spear point of an attack against Iran next year, but only the US can defend Israel from the inevitable Iranian counterattack and defend the US from Iranian attacks that would include suicide bombings in the US, Africa and Latin America by Iranian agents.

To repeat, there exists no such thing as a unilateral Israeli attack option against Iran that does not require US military support … including large scale logistics and missile defense support. In this instance, FOX news has it right.

[ramana]

Professor JB Kelly

He paid a particularly instructive visit to Buraimi, Oman, from where British-officered Trucial Scouts had ejected an American-backed Saudi force (engaged on an oil-grabbing mission) in 1955. He and the political officer, Martin Buckmaster, soon picked up signs that the Saudis were retaliating by stirring up the tribes of inner Oman with arms and money. Kelly passed this information on to the British political resident in Bahrain, Sir Bernard Burrows, who discounted it, coming as it did from a Gulf novice.

Burrows returned on leave to London, only to be called back to the Gulf in a hurry in July 1957 when the Imamate rebellion broke out in Oman. Kelly's first publication, written for Chatham House, was a paper on the revolt.

Wow his picture looks interesting.

[shyamd]

GCHQ in the UK is recruiting for language specialists:
Arabic, Baluchi, Brahui, Chinese, Dari, Farsi, Pashto, Sorani and Somali.

Lots of info to report this week.

IOL and my own analysis:
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Washington is losing its leverage for negotiations with Iran. The closure of US prisons in Iraq means, they can't do any spy exchanges in the future. The threat of economic sanctions aren't going to work too well either - Read NYT article for more details

Beyond that, China relies heavily on Iran’s vast energy reserves — perhaps 15 percent of the world’s natural gas deposits and a tenth of its oil — to offset its own shortages. The Chinese are estimated to have $120 billion committed to Iranian gas and oil projects, and China has been Iran’s biggest oil export market for the past five years. In return, Iran has loaded up on imported Chinese machine tools, factory equipment, locomotives and other heavy goods, building China into one of its largest trading partners.

However, the US is shaping up its Petrol sanctions policy: In early October the draft of an Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act will be tabled before the U.S. House of Representative.
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Obama doesn't like to have the Presidential Daily Briefing explained to him unlike GWBush. He just prefers to read it in the morning.
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Fatah(The traitors) and Egypt are backing AQ affiliated jihadists to fight Hamas.
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Prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz has had his term as General Intelligence Directorate(GID) extended by 4 years by a royal decree early sept.
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Western intel is working day and night trying to identify a potential successor to Iran's spirtual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei.
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Riyadh has been thinking of paying off Hamas to pull the group away from Iran. But looks like GID is working on a different strategy across the ME. My ears are telling me that KSA intel is supporting the Christian Phalanges in lebanon.
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Sheikh Nasser bin Hamad (son of the King of Bahrain) is marrying the daughter of Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum of Dubai. The wedding is taking place tomorrow in Bahrain I am told.
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JPost article'Hizbullah had better intel than Israel in 2006'

Hizbullah had better intelligence information than Israel and better control of its forces during the Second Lebanon War, according to an official IDF scorecard compiled recently by a top navy officer.
....
In intelligence, Hizbullah received a 7 and the IDF a 6; in military doctrine and strategy Hizbullah received a 9 and the IDF a 5; In technology, the IDF received a 9 and Hizbullah a 5; in training and organization, Hizbullah received a 8 and the IDF 7, and in tactical command Hizbullah received a 8 and the IDF a 6.

The 24 officers also ruled that Hizbullah had greater motivation to win than the IDF. Hizbullah received a score of 8 in the motivation category, while the IDF scored only 4.

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Folks, recently the UAE has secretly been kicking out all Lebanese shi'ites and Palestinians. Some are also facing harrassment from the UAE authorities. The expellees formed a committee and yesterday one of them made threats to UAE on a news channel.
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Al-Masri Al-Yawm (Egypt today paper which is controlled by Jamal Mubarak (son of Husni)) is "reporting" with front page coverage and a big headline that the Mossad dispatched a team to defeat Faruq Husni Mubarak at UNESCO

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Palestinians join Israeli army for better life

Bedouin soldiers, for example, who are usually recruited as trackers, have to search for mines and booby-traps. Last year, a 28-year-old Bedouin man was blown up by a roadside bomb along the perimeter fence around Gaza as he went ahead of soldiers from the Givati brigade. Unlike Jewish soldiers killed in action, his family did not want his name published

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad singing with the Iranian orchestra.
Upon hearing of the death of "Lucy" from the "Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds" song, Mahmoud Ahmadinajad insisted on performing the song with a full Iranian Orchestra. (Asna)

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Al Arabbiya aired a phone video clip on Al Qaeda funding, it proved that most of the funding for AQ still comes from KSA.

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Nayef’s rise up the Al-Saud pecking order adds to the complexity of Saudi relations with the UAE

The elevation of Prince Nayef to second deputy premier has been closely observed in the UAE, where the veteran Saudi interior minister is regarded as being party to bilateral disputes since the foundation of the federation, writes Sultan Sooud Al-Qassemi*

Relations between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been strained in the six months since Saudi Interior Minister Prince Nayef Bin Abdelaziz was appointed second deputy premier, effectively catapulting him to become next in line to rule, while Crown Prince Sultan Bin Abdelaziz, who is 84, has been convalescing in the United States and Morocco (GSN 860/14, 858/1; 857/7). Many believe that due to his poor health and advanced age, Sultan is unlikely to succeed King Abdullah Bin Abdelaziz. If Nayef is next in line to the throne, the UAE has a dilemma because he has been party to most of the major bilateral diplomatic incidents for nearly four decades. Nayef, who is 76, has served in the Saudi Ministry of Interior (MoI) since 1970.

The first bilateral dispute arose when Nayef was deputy minister; it was settled when the young UAE federation signed a border agreement with Saudi Arabia in 1974. Saudi Arabia had laid claim to the oasis city of Al-Ain, some 500km inside the UAE. Although details of the agreement are still not fully known, it is believed the fledgling federation agreed to cede to Saudi Arabia parts of its Al-Udaid land borders with Qatar, a state that had also recently won independence from Britain.

Such a move might avoid tensions with the young country’s largest neighbour at a time when nation-building was founding president Sheikh Zayed Bin Sultan Al-Nahyan’s priority. But this dispute erupted again in 2005, when Nayef publicly opposed plans for a sea bridge that would link Abu Dhabi to Qatar, citing Saudi territorial claims to the region (GSN 761/1).

In May, Abu Dhabi withdrew from the Gulf Co-operation Council’s proposed monetary union after Riyadh was chosen as the administrative headquarters of the proposed Gulf central bank (GSN 854/1). UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan said: “The decision made by the GCC was not based on merit; it was based on different issues altogether.” The following month, Abu Dhabi newspaper The National published photographs of thousands of lorry drivers, many of whom were carrying fresh produce, stranded for a week in often appalling conditions in a 32km queue at the border with Saudi Arabia. According to Saudi Arabia, the dispute arose when the MoI introduced a new fingerprint-scanning system. Then, in August, it suspended the use of UAE ID cards for entry to the Kingdom, ostensibly because of the UAE map that appeared on them.

But the issue is not as simple as that. The accord that gave UAE and Saudi citizens reciprocal travel rights using an ID card was signed in May 2007. Three years before that, in May 2004, the new design of the $52m UAE ID card was approved by Interior Minister Sheikh Saif Bin Zayed and unveiled to the world along with the now contentious map. The accord included a 90-day notice period in the event that the measure was suspended, but according to an Emirati official, Riyadh gave them “less than two days before announcing the decision to the public”. The Saudi Press Agency also issued a strongly worded MoI statement that the Saudis had “warned the UAE”. This is a worrying precedent since such language has almost never been used between the GCC states. The UAE then put the Saudi government in an awkward position when it said it would continue to welcome Saudi citizens visiting the federation using Saudi ID cards.

In this difficult context, the UAE must draw up a strategy to deal with the various scenarios that could arise if Nayef becomes king. There is consensus that the future of both countries lies under the GCC umbrella, but the Gulf states must have options to deal with potential conflicts. There is concern that if Nayef succeeds to the throne, he may appoint to the government those from the MoI responsible for the deterioration of relations with the UAE.

The deep familial relations that tie the Saudis to the Emiratis will make sure that this dispute is contained. As the region’s largest, most populated and wealthiest state, big brother Saudi Arabia will remain first among equals in the GCC. But as in all family disputes, its younger siblings hope it deals with contentious issues discreetly. Until then, the UAE may have to hope for the best, but plan for the worst.

* Sultan Sooud Al-Qassemi is a non-resident fellow of the Dubai School of Government and a columnist for The National newspaper in Abu Dhabi.

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Boeing is thinking about buying back Kuwaiti F-18C/D's that they have been operating for almost 20 years and give the Kuwaiti's brand new F-18E/F's. The C/D's will be sold to Switzerland.


More later

[shyamd]

Behind the scenes action as described by Debka.
Too late to stop Tehran, Obama aims to stifle an Israeli attack

Saudi King due in Damascus on road to reconciliation with Iran

After long shunning the Assad regime, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia was expected in Damascus shortly Wednesday, Sept. 30, DEBKAfile's intelligence and Gulf sources report.

The Saudi monarch has decided to take up Syrian president Bashar Assad's offer to help bridge the rift between Riyadh and Tehran, who back opposing sides in the Yemeni civil war and so broker a settlement of the conflict.

The offer was presented by Assad during his visit to Jeddah last week. According to our sources, the Syrian Yemen initiative is part of a broader, intricate fence-mending process unfolding over the last two months. It is meant to kick off a process of reconciliation between Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia and lead to the formation of a powerful new bloc for common action to solve Middle East problems. The Saudis would thus succumb to Tehran's ambition for recognition as the dominant power in the region; its delegation would then sit down opposite the six world powers in Geneva, Thursday Oct. 1, with a stronger hand.

King Abdullah's willingness to give Iran before or alongside the Geneva showdown may also indicate he is ready for a separate, unilateral understanding with the Shiite regime on its nuclear program as well.

The emerging bloc, if it takes off, would be in a powerful position to bully Lebanon and the Palestinians into forming radicalized national unity administrations. Egypt would inevitably be drawn into this coalition or be left on the sidelines of events. American and Israeli interests in the Middle East would be gravely damaged.

In its last issue, DEBKA-Net-Weekly 414 of Sept. 25, revealed that Saudi Arabia and Syria were in covert talks to settle their quarrel. The live wires behind the scenes were cited as: Prince Mogrin bin Abdulaziz,head of Saudi General Intelligence and Gen. Ali Mamluk, head of Syrian intelligence service and the Syrian ruler's closest adviser, who is supported by Samir al Taqi.

This last face is familiar to Israeli diplomats as head of the Al-Sharq Center for International relations in Damascus which is the intermediary for interchanges between Syria and the Obama administration in Washington.

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Confirmation that the BND(German intelligence) brokered release of Gilead Schalit is very near from Debka as I had posted on 17th Sept.

Shalit videotape handover Friday marks advanced stage in Hamas-Israel prisoner negotiations

Against Israel's release of 20 Palestinian women-prisoners, Hamas will hand over Friday, Oct. 2, a "sign-of'-life" video-tape of Israeli soldier Gilead Shalit who has spent more than three years in captivity. Both Jerusalem and Hamas spokesmen stressed that this was no more than a small step on a long road ahead before the German-mediated, Egyptian- sponsored negotiations brought Sgt. Gilead Shalit home from his long ordeal in exchange for 1,000 jailed Palestinians.

But according to DEBKAfile's military sources, the negotiations are far more advanced than claimed by those officials and many disputed points have already been cleared up. However, both parties are keeping this under their hats, fearing that premature disclosure of their concessions for the trade will arouse strong resistance in both Jerusalem and Damascus.

Speedy progress is also indicated by the fact that the German mediator visited the Gaza Strip 15 times in the last few weeks.

When they find out the truth, some leading ministers in the Netanyahu cabinet are expected to object strongly to the release of 40-50 Palestinian hard-core terrorists sentenced to life for bloody, multiple-casualty attacks. The families of many victims of those terrorists will go as high as the Supreme Court to keep them behind bars.

The prime minister and defense minister hope that the first sight of Gilead Shalit in Hamas prison appearing on the video to be handed over Friday will melt some of the opposition to the deal for his release.

Within the Hamas leadership, three factions are at odds for political reasons: Mahmoud a Zahar, head of the political wing in Gaza, wants the prisoner swap to take place as soon as possible; Muhammad Jabry, Gaza military commander who is in charge of Shalit's guards, objects to his release; while Politburo chief Khaled Meshaal in Damascus would prefer to drag the prisoner negotiations with Israel over a long period.

At the same time, the prisoner negotiations have gained new impetus from the latest round of Hamas reconciliation talks with Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah over the formation of a Palestinian government coalition to govern up until the June 2010 elections to the Palestinian administration and parliament.

The three Hamas factions have been brought together at this point by the realization that it would be more profitable for their movement to run for election with the Shalit affair behind it and the trump card of having secured the release of 1,000 Palestinians from Israeli jails.

Our Middle East sources warn that if the Hamas-Fatah track breaks down, it could drag the negotiations for Gilead Shalit's freedom with it.

Hamas spokesman Abu Obeida announced Wednesday that the 20 Palestinian women to be handed over belong to Hamas, Fatah, Jihad Islami and Popular Front - 19 from the West Bank, one from the Gaza Strip.

Gilead Shalit was kidnapped outside Gaza in June 2006 in a cross-border raid by Hamas and allied Islamist groups. His captors have kept him isolated from Red Cross or family visits and communications throughout this period despite the protests his father, Noam Shalit, lodged with world bodies about the fundamental violations of his human rights and the Geneva Conventions.

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In update of the Hamas intelligence report that stated West Bank and Egypt are funding the AQ cells in Gaza. Here is an old Debka Net Weekly article:

Is Gaza Evolving into Another Waziristan?- II

Al Qaeda's Gaza Cells Are Not Short of a Buck (or Two)


The Palestinian Islamist Hamas this week placed its military, police and intelligence forces on top alert following information that the 25-40 al Qaeda-linked Salafi groups operating in the Gaza Strip (the exact number is unknown) were preparing to mount massive terror attacks on Hamas government premises.

There was talk that the Gaza Strip had been set on a slippery slope to becoming a second Waziristan or Mogadishu.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly's counter-terror sources read more than empty metaphors into this analogy.

It rests on a top-secret intelligence report compiled in the first week of August by Hamas minister of the interior Fathi Hamad, whose contents were obtained by DEBKA-Net-Weekly intelligence sources.

The Salafi-jihadi groups of the Gaza Strip operate under an umbrella organization called Jaljalat, the first word of al Qaeda's anthem, which means: “We have been saved” [implicitly by jihad])."

Earlier this month, Jaljalat sent a secret messenger through Sinai to Jordan to offer Khuzeifa Azzam, son of the legendary founder and leader of the global Mujahideen movement, Sheikh Abdullah Yusuf Azzam, the mantle of Gaza's Salafi leadership.

His father, Azzam Sr. was highly esteemed in jihadi circles above all as Osama bin Laden's mentor, who persuaded him to join the Afghan holy war against the Soviet invaders in the 1980s. In those days, this influential Palestinian Sunni scholar, who preached the concept of defensive jihad, organized the manpower and funding for an international Islamic legion to fight in Afghanistan.



Israel's disengagement gave Salafis first foothold



The Hamas intelligence report states that today, the al Qaeda-linked Salafi groups command some 7,000 fighting men and control about one quarter of the Gaza Strip (139 sq. miles). Under their sway is an overcrowded population of some half a million people, squeezed mainly into the two southern cities of Khan Younis (160,000 inhabitants) and Rafah on the Egyptian border (over 300,000 inhabitants). This is only slightly more than the size of the population spread out across the 4,473 sq. miles of North and South Waziristan.

For comparison, it should be noted that the Pakistan Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud (believed to have been killed by a US drone) commanded no more than 2,500 fighting men, roughly the same number deployed by Tohir Yuldashev, head of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, which is now considered al Qaeda's main operational arm in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

For al Qaeda, therefore, the Gaza force of 7,000 jihad fervent fighters are a major windfall which bin Laden is unlikely to leave unexploited in pursuing his jihad on the West.

The Salafi groups first appeared in Gaza after Israel evacuated the Strip in the summer of 2006. They multiplied like mushrooms after September 2005 when Hamas seized power and evicted the Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority.

Their next period of growth occurred after Israel ended its three-week Operation Cast Lead in February 2009 leading Hamas to halt its missile offensive against the Israeli population. Disenchanted by Hamas' tame new policy towards the Jewish state, thousands defected from its military wing, the hard-line Popular Resistance Committees and the various Palestinian Fronts. They gravitated with their guns to the various Salafi-jihadist groups.



Locals, Exiles and Outsiders



Hamas intelligence reports that the Salafi-jihadist armed groups derive their command structure from three sources:

1. Local Palestinians, many of whom held minor command positions with Hamas or other Palestinian organizations in the Gaza Strip's central and northern regions.

2. A mixed bag of some 150 seasoned Egyptian, Syrian, Sudanese, Yemenite and Iraqi Sunni fighters from various al Qaeda war zones. They entered the Gaza Strip through the smuggling tunnels from Sinai.

The report does not reveal how they were able to slip past Hamas' tunnel overseers, who levy tax on every person or commodity passing through.

3. Ex-Hamas members from Syria and Lebanon.

The Hamad report concludes that the burgeoning al Qaeda presence in the southern Gaza Strip is a threat to Hamas' rule. Without strong and expeditious action to stop them, the Salafi-jihadists will spread north and move in on the teeming Palestinian refugee camps of Gaza City. Already, the first comers have been sighted in the Sabra and Zaitun camps.

These al Qaeda affiliates enjoy an income of big bucks from two sources, according to the Hamas report.



The Palestinian Authority diverts US funds to the jihadis



The first, incredibly, is the United States, and the second, none other than Israel.

Source A. Washington transfers money to Ramallah to finance the Palestinian Authority's security and intelligence forces in the West Bank.

However, the head of Palestinian West Bank intelligence, Gen. Majd Faraj, has been given permission by the PA chairman, Mahmoud Abbas, to direct some of these funds to the Salafist-Jihadis who dominate the southern Gaza Strip. The rationale behind this is the hope of dislodging Hamas rule in the southern half of Gaza, effectively carving the enclave into two sections and toppling Hamas rule.

According to Hamas intelligence estimates, $2.5-3 million of American cash has been transferred from Ramallah to the southern Gaza Strip. Most of went on the purchase of weapons and pay for fighters and groups controlled by al Qaeda.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly sources compare this dynamic to the goings-on in Afghanistan and Pakistan, where Taliban was recently discovered drawing on contributions from Persian Gulf donors and the US allocations pouring into Afghanistan to build infrastructure and aid the population. This discovery negates the prevailing wisdom in Washington until now that the Taliban subsisted on profits from the flourishing opium trade.

Presidential special envoy Richard Holbrooke commented only this week:

“In the past there was a kind of feeling that the money all came from drugs in Afghanistan. That is simply not true".

Holbrooke has decided to co-opt a Treasury Department official to his staff to pursue the question of Taliban funding. According to the evidence from the manager of an Afghan firm, which has signed lucrative construction contracts with the US, firms like his must factor into their cost estimates of a minimum rake-off of 20 percent for the Taliban.

Source B. Israel was persuaded to transfer roughly $31.5 million to the Gaza Strip each month by the US and Egyptian governments, who argued that without this influx the local banks would collapse.

If only 5 percent of this money percolates to the Salafis, they can count on a steady revenue flow of $1.5 million per month.

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The forgotten war. Houthi Rebels vs Yemen. Note, the lack of interest from western media.

The Forgotten War of the Arabian Peninsula
Saudis and Egypt with US Funding Aid Yemen's War on Iran-Backed Rebels

When Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak arrived at the White House on Tuesday, August 18, he told President Barack Obama that Yemen is on the verge of a Somalia-like collapse.

A similar cocktail of foes is at work in both countries.

In Mogadishu, radical Muslim groups are fighting the Somali government alongside al Qaeda elements, supported among others by Iranian agents, whereas in Yemen, government forces are battling pro-al Qaeda groups in the center of the country and Huthi rebels armed and financed by Tehran in the northern region of Saada on the Saudi border.

President Obama did not need Mubarak's reminder concerning Yemen. He had in hand a US intelligence report telling him that Yemen is in the grip of the biggest armed conflict to beset the Arabian peninsula in 18 years, ever since Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1991.

This report reached him when the news headlines were focused on the US-led NATO war on Taliban and al Qaeda in Afghanistan, followed Wednesday, Aug. 19, by the carnage in Baghdad - six huge truck bomb and suicide attacks combined with mortar shelling left almost 100 dead and 600 injured. Al Qaeda had returned to the Iraqi capital with a vengeance with terror attacks whose intensity recalled its 2004 and 2005 offensives.

The Yemenite Hothis' violent challenge to central government in Sanaa has been going on for years.

The fanatical Huthi Zaydis, claiming they are the only genuine Shiites, take their name from Hussein Badreddin al-Huthi, their former commander whom the Yemeni armed forces killed in September 2004.

Their stamping grounds are the northwestern Yemen province of Saada and across the short border they share, among the Zaydis of the Saudi province of Asir.



Hothi rebels gain on Yemeni army with Iran's help



In the last two weeks, DEBKA-Net-Weekly military sources report, the Hothis made substantial gains against the Yemenite military, using their topographical advantage in Saada's mountains, particularly in Dhahian city, as well as in Magz, Sahar, Saqeen, Haydan, Kittaf, Baqem and Al-Safra districts, where they reach elevations of 6,000-9,000 feet and are impenetrable to tanks and other armored vehicles.

They were able to destroy Yemen's 82nd armored division, killing hundreds of troops and wounded many more with the help of masses of Iranian-made anti-tank rockets funneled to them by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' Al Qods Brigades.

The Yemeni military tried to retaliate with a blanket of artillery fire and MRLS rocket launchers on the mountainsides where the Huthis were dug in. This did not work because the rebels had scattered through the mountains in small groups of 3-5 men and were constantly on the move.

In desperation, the Yemeni president, Abdullah Salah, this week tossed into the fray all the elite units of the 66,000-strong Yemeni army, its first mechanized infantry division, and six commando and paratroop divisions - altogether some 20,000 of his best troops.

US intelligence estimates they outnumbered the Huthi force of a little over 15,000 fighters under the command of Abd al-Malik al-Huthi - except that the rebels are familiar with every inch of the mountain area and trained to fight in this terrain by Iranian military instructors.



Saudi Arabia sends bombers, Egypt ammo, US pays



Then, on Sunday, Aug. 16, DEBKA-Net-Weekly intelligence and Gulf sources reported that the Saudi king Abdullah and Yemeni president spoke on the phone about the situation on the war front. The result was the Saudi ruler's order to his air force to start bombing Hothi strongholds and village-bases in Saada province. The Saudi warplanes, including F-15 fighter-bombers and Tornado bombers, flew in from Khalid Air Base located in the northwest of Asir near the Yemeni border.

At the time of writing this, the Saudi bombings continue.

The Saudi Air Force is also helping the Yemeni army with helicopters for dropping supplies and evacuating injured personnel from the mountain war zones to hospital.

King Abdullah had meanwhile got in touch with President Mubarak, who was on his way to Washington, and asked him to open his munitions depots and release to the Yemeni army badly needed arms and ordnance.

The Yemeni army still fights with outdated Soviet weapons from the 1970s and 1980s. The Egyptian army is the only Middle East military which still has old ammunition suitable for those weapons.

Before his plane landed in Washington, our military resources report that Mubarak had ordered his generals to organize an airlift and naval convoy to ferry all the weapons and ammunition the Yemen army needed.

The first Egyptian aerial transports and ships reached the Yemeni Red Sea port of Hudayda Tuesday, August 18 as Mubarak entered the White House in Washington.

Later that day, President Obama promised his Egyptian guest that Washington would foot the bill for Saudi and Egyptian participation in the Yemen War. They agreed that the Yemen arena had occasioned the first direct battle between Cairo and Riyadh, on the one hand, and Iran, on the other.



Rebels switch fronts, prove staying power



The Saada warfront is still teetering back and forth between the combatants.

The Yemeni army is advancing very slowly along three rugged mountain routes, razing every Hothi village-stronghold en route and carrying out mass executions. According to our intelligence sources, the two sides count a total of 2,000 dead.

As they fall back from the advancing troops, the Hothis have opened a new front: Their raiding squads attack the army's transportation routes (narrow paths with only one semi-paved road in each region), rear bases and military installations.

Tuesday, Aug. 18, they mounted one such attack on the presidential palace compound in the town of Saada, Yemen's third largest town after the capital, Sanaa, and Taiz. Once in control of the buildings, they burned them down.

Yemen's chiefs of staff declared a state of emergency in the capital after concluding that the Hothis who mingled in with the river of refugees, estimated at more than 150,000, fleeing the combat zones could not be prevented from reaching Sanaa.

On Wednesday, Aug. 19, DEBKA-Net-Weekly military and intelligence sources report the Yemeni chief of military intelligence Gen. Ali Sayani arrived in Jeddah for an urgent consultation with the Saudi deputy minister of the interior, Prince Muhammad (son of Minister of the Interior, Prince Nayef), the strong man of Saudi Arabia's security services.

Gen. Sayani appealed for expanded military involvement in the war and more aid before it spreads to Shiite population centers in the kingdom.

He warned there was no chance of the conflict ending any time soon and advised preparing for a long haul.

On this point at least, the government in Sanaa and the rebel command are of one mind.

The rebel chief informed his officers this week that he was not troubled by Yemeni and Saudi attacks on his forces. Washington, Riyadh and Cairo would soon come to realize, he said, that the Hothis had more than enough staying power to last the course until they reached their goals.

[sum]

Confirmation that the BND(German intelligence) brokered release of Gilead Schalit is very near from Debka as I had posted on 17th Sept.

Maybe a n00b question but what is the BND doing in a Israeli-Palestinian issue?

How is Germany even remotely connected to these two players?

[Kati]

^^^^^

Oftern German and Dutch agencies give proxy for uncle where things are a bit touchy.

[shyamd]

Sumji, the fact that they are not closely related is precisely why they are being an independent party to broker the release. Shalit is also a dual French and Israeli national. Well, Israel and BND/Germany relationship goes a long way back to the Munich attacks in 73.

------------------------------
Folks, do you all remember the fact that the British Foreign office had warned british nationals of an increased risk of terrorism based on specific intelligence. The US consulate in DXB had actually been closed for one day due to the local authorities. Well it turns out that there was indeed a terror cell.

RAK govt is the link from UAE to Iran.

UAE arrests suspected RAK terror cell

When a ‘terror plot’ emerges everyone is quick to rush in with their interpretation of the (usually shadowy) events. “An armed cell related to a regional government” was reportedly uncovered over the summer in the northern emirate of Ras Al-Khaimah (RAK). Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida, which appeared to break the story in July, said the group included eight individuals, two of whom were UAE nationals, and the rest Syrian and Palestinian. It said they had been taken to Abu Dhabi for questioning. One of the nationals is said to have worked for RAK Pharmaceuticals, while the other belongs to a well-known Abu Dhabi family.

The story was picked up this month by an Israeli news website, Ynet, and was commented on by RAK’s former crown prince Sheikh Khaled Bin Saqr Al-Qasimi. Ynet claimed Iran was employing the cell in a plot to crash a plane into Burj Dubai, soon to be the world’s tallest tower; it said some 45 more suspects had since been arrested, among them Lebanese nationals. And Ynet upped the ante with reports of connections between RAK and Iran; it claimed the state-owned RAK Ceramics had a factory in Natanz, where Iran has a uranium enrichment facility. However, while RAK Ceramics has a factory in Tehran, which has received funding from the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation, there is no sign of a sinister Natanz facility.

Sheikh Khaled responded to the Ynet report by issuing a press release on 18 September, which claimed RAK “has actively forged deep and often shadowy relationships with Iran, including the establishment of a free trade zone where more than 600 Iranian businesses – many working with the Iranian government – have developed gas line deals which help Iran circumvent restrictions and allow our emirate to be used as a portal for the shipping of weapons”.

Sheikh Khaled has for the last year been employing a PR company to promote his return to public life, generating much speculation about a potential palace coup in the emirate, which is now effectively ruled by his great rival Crown Prince Sheikh Saud Bin Saqr Al-Qasimi (GSN 842/1).

The most plausible report appeared in The Washington Times, which said three US intelligence officials and one former senior US governmental official had confirmed that the terrorist scheme originated in RAK. These sources affiliated the cell with Al-Qaeda and said the UAE authorities had found evidence the group had conducted video surveillance of targets in Dubai.

Juan Zarate, a former deputy national security adviser in the George W. Bush administration, called the arrests a "significant ... disruption. It demonstrates al Qaeda''s presence and perhaps even ill intent in the Emirates, but also signals strong cooperation from the Emirati authorities."

UK-based academic Christopher Davidson agreed “it is unlikely that Iran is directly involved, but rather that this is an Al-Qaeda (or affiliated) operation, quite possibly a spoof to distract from the real operations that are being planned”.

Link to Ynet article

[ramana]

Confirmation that the BND(German intelligence) brokered release of Gilead Schalit is very near from Debka as I had posted on 17th Sept.

Maybe a n00b question but what is the BND doing in a Israeli-Palestinian issue?

How is Germany even remotely connected to these two players?

Did you read or watch Odessa File?

I think they have contacts on both sides!

[shyamd]

Folks the Gilead Shalit video has been released by Hamas as promised.

Debka Analysis of the video

Youtube link of the video

Transcript of what he says in the video:
In the tape, Shalit says: "Hello, this is Gilad, son of Noam and Aviva Shalit, brother of Hadas and Yoel who live in Mitzpe Hila. My ID number is 97029.

As you can see I am holding today's Falasteen newspaper published in Gaza

I read the newspaper in order to find information about myself, and in hopes of reading about information of my return home and my imminent release."
Gilad then continues: "I hope the current government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu doesn't waste this opportunity to reach an agreement and as a result, allow me to fulfill my dream and be released."

Addressing his parents and siblings, Gilad says: "I wish to send my well-wishes to my family and tell them that I love them and miss them greatly, and hope for the day I'll see them again. Dad, Yoel, and Hadas, do you remember the day you arrived at my base in the Golan Heights, on December 31, 2005? We toured around the base and you took a picture of me on a Merkava tank and on one of the old tanks at the entrance to the base. Later we went to a restaurant in one of the Druze villages and on the way we took pictures on the side of the road, against the backdrop of the snowy Hermon Mountain."

"I want to tell you that I feel well in medical terms, and that the Mujahidin from the al-Qassam Brigades are treating me excellently. Thank you very much and goodbye," Gilad concludes.


Gilad's parents, Noam and Aviva, watched the tape privately in their home earlier in the day, and later granted the Prime Minister's Office permission to publicize it.

[Philip]

Great turn up for the book,dear old Pres.Mahmoud Ahmed-in-a-jacket's real name is actually Ahmed-is-a-Jew!

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad revealed to have Jewish past

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's vitriolic attacks on the Jewish world hide an astonishing secret, evidence uncovered by The Daily Telegraph shows.

By Damien McElroy and Ahmad Vahdat
Published: 7:30AM BST 03 Oct 2009

Ahmadinejad showing papers during election. It shows that his family's previous name was Jewish A photograph of the Iranian president holding up his identity card during elections in March 2008 clearly shows his family has Jewish roots.

A close-up of the document reveals he was previously known as Sabourjian – a Jewish name meaning cloth weaver.

The short note scrawled on the card suggests his family changed its name to Ahmadinejad when they converted to embrace Islam after his birth.

The Sabourjians traditionally hail from Aradan, Mr Ahmadinejad's birthplace, and the name derives from the Jewish for "weaver of the Sabour", the name for the Jewish Tallit shawl in Persia. The name is even on the list of reserved names for Iranian Jews compiled by Iran's Ministry of the Interior.

Experts last night suggested Mr Ahmadinejad's track record for hate-filled attacks on Jews could be an overcompensation to hide his past.

Ali Nourizadeh, of the Centre for Arab and Iranian Studies, said: "This aspect of Mr Ahmadinejad's background explains a lot about him.

"Every family that converts into a different religion takes a new identity by condemning their old faith.

"By making anti-Israeli statements he is trying to shed any suspicions about his Jewish connections. He feels vulnerable in a radical Shia society."

A London-based expert on Iranian Jewry said that "jian" ending to the name specifically showed the family had been practising Jews.

"He has changed his name for religious reasons, or at least his parents had," said the Iranian-born Jew living in London. "Sabourjian is well known Jewish name in Iran."

A spokesman for the Iranian embassy in London said it would not be drawn on Mr Ahmadinejad's background. "It's not something we'd talk about," said Ron Gidor, a spokesman.

The Iranian leader has not denied his name was changed when his family moved to Tehran in the 1950s. But he has never revealed what it was change from or directly addressed the reason for the switch.

Relatives have previously said a mixture of religious reasons and economic pressures forced his blacksmith father Ahmad to change when Mr Ahmadinejad was aged four.

The Iranian president grew up to be a qualified engineer with a doctorate in traffic management. He served in the Revolutionary Guards militia before going on to make his name in hardline politics in the capital.

During this year's presidential debate on television he was goaded to admit that his name had changed but he ignored the jibe.

However Mehdi Khazali, an internet blogger, who called for an investigation of Mr Ahmadinejad's roots was arrested this summer.

Mr Ahmadinejad has regularly levelled bitter criticism at Israel, questioned its right to exist and denied the Holocaust. British diplomats walked out of a UN meeting last month after the Iranian president denounced Israel's 'genocide, barbarism and racism.'

Benjamin Netanyahu made an impassioned denunciation of the Iranian leader at the same UN summit. "Yesterday, the man who calls the Holocaust a lie spoke from this podium," he said. "A mere six decades after the Holocaust, you give legitimacy to a man who denies the murder of six million Jews while promising to wipe out the State of Israel, the State of the Jews. What a disgrace. What a mockery of the charter of the United Nations."

Mr Ahmadinejad has been consistently outspoken about the Nazi attempt to wipe out the Jewish race. "They have created a myth today that they call the massacre of Jews and they consider it a principle above God, religions and the prophets," he declared at a conference on the holocaust staged in Tehran in 2006.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... -past.html

[shyamd]

Taken from Orbat.com

#

US has taken over Baluchistan Liberation Army from the Indians says Mandeep Singh Bajwa. The Indians are still involved, but in a minor role. US objectives are (a) hunt down AQ/Taliban; (b) keep the Iran Baluchis boiling; (c) keep PRC out. The Indian reading is that the US wants to maintain an option for the future of an independent client state in Baluchistan, simply as one more option among many.
#

The Oman Government is acting as surrogate for US and UK intelligence and Omani agents are thick on the ground. The Omanis have a "formidable" intelligence set up, trained by UK's MI-6.
#

The Omanis find it easy to operate in Baluchistan since a significant percentage of their population is Baluchi. Till some years ago, 8 of the Oman army's battalions were Baluch manned. Pakistan Baluchis are employed in security roles by many Gulf countries, including Oman and the UAE, and may also be in the Yemen,

Finally the truth is out, I can give more details on this. Will post more when I get some time. Anyway, please see links to my post posted on 22nd May and 19th July.

[shyamd]

Abu Dhabi to host Indian Ocean naval meet in March

The next Indian Navy-initiated Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS), a pan-Asian maritime security forum, comprising 26 littoral countries of the Indian Ocean, will take place in Abu Dhabi, UAE in March 2010.

“The UAE will be the next chairman of the IONS—thus validating its existence as a pan-Asian security forum and rubbishing Pakistan’s argument terming it as a grouping against the Islamic world,” senior Naval officers told FE. Interestingly, there is no Indian defence attaché posted in UAE, but the one posted in Muscat, Oman is accredited to UAE.

According to a former naval officer, Ranjit Rai, vice-president Indian Maritime Foundation and an independence defence analyst, “The UAE, which is expanding its Navy, is keen to host the symposium in 2010, as they want to protect their interest in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. The countries of Oman, Iran, and the UAE border the straits and each plays a large part in fostering a secure environment around the Straits.”

“Currently discussions are underway in Mombasa, where decisions to shift the IONS Secretariat to Abu Dhabi, and the agenda for the March symposium will be taken,” said officials. Acknowledging the fact that Middle Eastern nations taking a bigger defence market share, it seemed appropriate to hand over the chairmanship to UAE, although South Africa was short listed too, informed sources.

[SSridhar]

More info revealed on the attempted assassination of KSA's Prince bin Nayef

The repentant al-Asiri took two flights, one aboard the Prince’s private jet. He spent 30 hours closely guarded by the Prince’s personal security.

Al-Asiri was granted an audience with the Prince, at his private palace in Jeddah, by declaring that he would persuade other militants to surrender.

Al-Asiri briefly called other militants to tell them that he was standing alongside Prince Nayef. It was all recorded by Al-Qaeda who has turned the episode into an animated movie boasting of their exploits, the newspaper reported.

During the conversation, a bleep was heard between two identical phrases repeated by the bomber and the man he is speaking to. This keypad sound or text message may have activated a short fuse on the bomb, according to security experts.

Al-Asiri declared that more Al-Qaeda figures wanted to surrender and asks the Prince to take the cell phone. Some 14 seconds later the bomb went off. The explosion blew al-Asiri to pieces, and left his left arm embedded in the ceiling.

Security experts believe the explosive, and an electronic detonator, was probably contained in a long thin animal gut casing to protect it from stomach acid.

By becoming coiled inside al-Asiri’s large intestine, the bomb would have gained additional force.

The Saudis believe the bomb weighed 100gm and was made with PETN plastic explosive, to avoid detection by airport and other metal detectors.

[Sanjay M]

Ouch! Sounds like quite a bum blast!

I guess he learned how to GUBO with the best of them.
I don't think even the 72 virgins will touch him now

Maybe he was trying out a new WMD - hoping to make us all die of laughter:

There are too many puns for this story to pass up.

The Sun: Suicide Bummer

The Register: Suicide Bum-Blast

Kansas City Star: Keister Bomb

Las Vegas Review: Rear Action

Belleville News: New AlQaeda Tactics 'Pain in the Butt'


Oh, and my favorite one - the long-awaited Dirty Bomb!

[JE Menon]

Long before the arrival of the Bojitive Newj thread, there was a character who briefly made an appearance after the shoe-bomber incident. This guy shoved a substantial quantity of explosives up his nether regions and attempted a suicide bomb but killed no one other than himself. His name?

Shaheed Butt

Of Pakistani origin, now living in the UK

[Prem]

Ouch! Sounds like quite a bum blast!
Oh, and my favorite one - the long-awaited Dirty Bomb!

Bakistani Butt Bomb Beliver Bewakoof. Deserve highest award of Nishane Musharrasf Tagma byf Baki fauj.

[Jaspreet]

but killed no one other than himself

now living

Sorry, JEM, you lost me there. Was he killed or not?

[JE Menon]

Jaspreet, it's a joke - a fictional character.. that's why I said long before the "bojitive newj"... The joke in those days was that after Richard Reid people had to take off their shoes at airports. Imagine they had caught aptly named Shaheed Butt with dynamite up his rear end. Then we would probably have had to take our trousers off as well and line up at security accordingly. But the anus of proof would have been on the security officers no doubt. Small revenge.

[SSridhar]

But the anus of proof would have been on the security officers no doubt. Small revenge.

[shyamd]

Tehran accuses US in case of missing Iranian nuclear scientist

Iran's foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki charged Wednesday, Oct. 7 that Tehran had "documents that prove US interference" in the disappearance of the nuclear scientist Shahram Amid during a pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia earlier this year. He spoke after attending an Iranian cabinet meeting. Six days after meeting the six powers on its nuclear program in Geneva, Tehran appears to be preparing a new crisis.

State Department spokesman Ian Kelly denied having any information "on this individual." Some Saudi sources claimed the scientist asked the kingdom for political asylum but this was denied by Riyadh.

DEBKAfile's Iranian sources report that Shahram Amid was a senior member of Tehran University's nuclear physics department which is directly involved in work on Iran's second enrichment facility near Qom. Iranian nuclear scientists are forbidden foreign travel except for pilgrimages to Mecca. Then too they travel with groups and watched over by Iranian security personnel. Their passports are held by the group's head, usually a Revolutionary Guards officer, as a safety guard against defections.

Shahram Amid went missing without his passport last May, three days after his party arrived in Mecca. His belongings were left in his hotel room. The Saudi authorities deny knowledge of the case.

Our sources add: The fuss the Iranians are making about the scientist's disappearance indicates he was an important cog in the hidden compartments of Iran's nuclear program and had plenty to give away to the wrong parties. They fear his disappearance is a repetition of the case of the missing general Alireza Asgari who dropped out of sight in Istanbul in March 2007. Asgari, who was a deputy minister in charge of Iran's nuclear relations with Syria, also checked in at a hotel, unpacked in his room and vanished. Tehran has always suspected he headed straight for a flight to the United States and is in Washington to this day.

That Mottaki raised the case six months after Amid's disappearance is a sign that Iran is building up to a crisis with the big powers, especially the United States. It will no doubt climax on or before Oct. 25 when international inspectors are due to visit the suspect nuclear site near Qom.

Interesting stuff. By the way, Iran has asked the US to hand over Asgari in exchange for US agents captured by Tehran according to IOL.

Debka would know a lot about this case probably because of Israeli involvement in this case. Folks it could be that this scientist was paid off by KSA intel, and was sent to the US with Prince Bandars dollar blessings.

[ramana]

He might have defected also. Still going on Haj takes new meaning! Like those Olympics atheletes from erstwhile Warsaw pact countries that used to disappear and re-surface with citizenship from Western countries.

[arun]

Hamas bans women from riding on motorcycles and puts fort some “novel” reasaons. Among them, motorcycle riding women are a threat to community values and looked odd :

Hamas bans women on motorcycles in Gaza Strip

Thu Oct 8, 2009 5:54am EDT
GAZA, Oct 8 (Reuters) - Hamas rulers of the Gaza Strip say safety concerns and social traditions, not Islamic religious values, are the main reason behind a decision to ban women from riding motorbikes and scooters.

In a decision which would raise eyebrows in Rome or Rio de Janeiro, the Interior Ministry said it was banning women from riding two-wheelers or being pillion passengers, to limit accidents and to "protect community values".

Spokesman Ehab Al-Ghsain said the decision was taken after they found that women riding behind their husbands or male relatives were a prime reason for accidents in recent weeks.

"We have taken a series of decisions to limit accidents and avoid loss of lives. Men carrying women behind them on motorcycles caused accidents and did not match our social traditions," he said. "The image looked odd." ………………

Reuters

[SSridhar]

. . . safety concerns and social traditions, not Islamic religious values . . .

The same exact argument that KSA uses in ordering its women to cover themselves up completely, not to drive cars etc.. This means that wahhabism is taking roots in Gaza.

[Johann]

Ironically this is happening even while Saudi Arabia is liberalising, with new colleges where women and men study together without veils and drive, where movie theatres have been re-legalised, etc.

Hamas has been in power for almost three years now - the introduction of these measures at this time is a reflection of the growth of hardcore Salafi jihadi sentiment in Gaza, which has overtaken Fatah as the biggest challenge to Hamas rule.

There are parallels to Saudi Arabia in this - the Saudi government became much more socially conservative after Juhaimon Utaibi and a group of jihadis stormed the Grand Mosque in Mecca, declared the rulers as infidels who had sold out on morality, letting in television, and then letting women read the news on television, etc and proclaimed a new Islamic state back in November 1979. The mosque was stormed and the rebellion ruthlessly put down, but the Saudis were terrified by the challenge to their Islamic credentials and began to outdo themselves in trying to prove how conservative they were.

Something almost identical happened at the Ibn Taymiyya Mosque in Rafah this August when Al-Maqdisi denounced Hamas and proclaimed a new Islamic state. Just like the Saudis, Hamas stormed the place and killed their challenger, and just like the Saudis theyre turning in to reactionaries to assert their Islamic credentials.

[shyamd]

Johann, those groups are supported and funded by Egypt and Fatah/Dahlan, just to challenge Hamas rule.

[Johann]

Shyam,

Fatah yes, Egypt no. The cost to tourism of the inevitable Salafi jihadi leakage from Gaza back in to the Sinai is simply too high for them - much higher than negotiating a Fatah-Hamas unity government. Fatah's strategy is a security risk to Egypt that the Egyptians must tolerate for now.

Many men from Hamas's military wing have defected to the salafi jihadis. The irony is of course that they hate Fatah, and they have defected because they see Hamas is going the same route as Fatah; negotiating with the Israelis, limiting the struggle, etc.

[shyamd]

Shyam,

Fatah yes, Egypt no. The cost to tourism of the inevitable Salafi jihadi leakage from Gaza back in to the Sinai is simply too high for them - much higher than negotiating a Fatah-Hamas unity government. Fatah's strategy is a security risk to Egypt that the Egyptians must tolerate for now.

Many men from Hamas's military wing have defected to the salafi jihadis. The irony is of course that they hate Fatah, and they have defected because they see Hamas is going the same route as Fatah; negotiating with the Israelis, limiting the struggle, etc.

From what I had been told Omar Suleiman had supported these small jihadi groups in order to put more pressure on Hamas because the first attempt of Fatah and Hamas reconciliation failed. Omar met up with Meshaal on 28th Sept and apparently Hamas is more willing to negotiate, so Suleiman's tactic worked because Meshaal announced that they are willing to negotiate with Fatah under egyptian auspices.

The Jund Al Ansar attack is more politics rather than religion. Dahlan is using these groups to regain influence in Gaza and topple Hamas. Hamas intel had found direct links with Dahlan and Jund Ansar Allah. Hamas responded by attacking a wedding of Dahlan's relative. Hamas newspapers reported that it was Jund Ansar Allah who orchestrated the attack, but people know that Hamas was involved.
---------------------------
Tribunal on Hariri assassination is going to give out their report this month. So, while that is happening Assad is keen that no strong govt takes to power in Lebanon. So, Syrian intel has been releasing Fatah Al Islam prisoners and sending them back into Lebanon. But so far Lebanese have been able to neutralise the operations.

---------------------------
DNW this week:
US & Russia in Harness - I
Washington and Moscow Advance a Step at a Time - Starting with Iran
Obama is rebuilding the Bush alliance with Russia, expanding cooperation on Afghanistan to joint efforts to isolate Iran as equal partners. Their first successful joint venture was persuading Israel to put its military option against Iran on hold.

US & Russia in Harness - II
Obama Opens Middle East Door Wide to Russian Arms, Bases
The US president has given the nod to multibillion Saudi arms purchases from Russia, promising a Gulf emirate shopping spree for Russian weapons. In Afghanistan, he hopes to draw Russia into deploying its special ops units for night raids against al Qaeda

The Vanishing Peace Track
Abbas' Loss of Credibility Puts Obama's Mideast Policy in Jeopardy
Washington sees Mahmoud Abbas as linchpin of its Middle East policies, but the Palestinian leader is a burned-out force among his people and the Arab world. His consent to peace talks with Israel would only speed his final eclipse.

The third issue has been quite obvious for the last few weeks. Close watchers have been pointing to Abbas having to take a step aside. Some speculate that the Israeli's aren't happy with him.

[shyamd]

IAF Jaguars to conduct military exercise with Oman

October 10th, 2009 - 2:20 pm ICT by IANS Tell a Friend -

New Delhi, Oct 10 (IANS) The Indian Air Force’s (IAF) deep penetration strike aircraft Jaguar will fly down to Oman this month for a military exercise.
“To further military diplomacy and for addressing issues of inter-operabililty, IAF will be conducting a series of international exercises. Our fighters will be going to Oman for a bilateral exercise,” IAF chief Air Chief Marshal P.V. Naik told IANS.

The Royal Omani Air Force is the only other force in the world which still flies the British-built Jaguar, known as Shamsher in the IAF.

About half complement of the squadron, about five or six jets, are likely to go for the exercise to be conducted in the third week of October. The IAF’s ‘Flaming Arrows’ Jaguar squadron will be participating in the exercise.

“With only two air forces flying the combat jets, there have been training exchange programmes with Oman on this front,” a senior IAF official said Saturday, requesting anonymity.

India and Oman have agreed to step up cooperation by upgrading their joint military exercises and already have a memorandum of understanding on defence in place. Last year, Oman offered to provide berthing facilities for Indian Navy’s warships patrolling the piracy-hit waters off the shores of Somalia. (This agreement has been in place for a long time)

Oman military personnel are already being trained in Indian military training institutions.

Oman has also been seeking assistance from the Indian armed forces to set up credible supply systems for their defence equipment. (This has been going on for a long time as well. Doesn't look like much has been taken forward)

[shyamd]

Finally our defence agreements with Oman are looking like they will pay off.

Link

Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Nikhil Gandhi, Luv Chhabra, Director-Corporate Affairs, Punj Lloyd and Ravi Kapoor on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.

Q: We heard yesterday about the two large deals that you were in conversations with, with naval forces both in Oman and in India- what are the chances at this point that they fructify and what would that mean to your order book?

Gandhi: It is always our endeavour to put in the best possible bids which would satisfy the clients and also make sure that our EBITDA margin is not compromised. Having build world-class infrastructure, we will have slight upper hand over several other international companies of our stature and size. I believe that Pipavav has good chance to put in competitive bids.

Q: Which ones do you think have higher chances of coming through because the Oman orders totally the bids are about USD 4 million and the Indian naval order is about 1.3? These are the kind of orders that investors would like you to book now from the naval and the defence side, which do you think you have a better shot at?

Gandhi: We are the first company in the private sector approved by the Oman Ministry of Defence. They have looked at our facilities and this is a world class infrastructure, and hopefully, they may want to use these facilities and that is one of the reasons they have approved our company. So we are very positive about these developments. And it’s a nice situation to be in on the first day to be starting business with some of the top Indian entities like Navy and Coast Guard. Royal Navy in the Oman has also approved us as a warship builder, primarily, because of experience of our partner Punj Lloyd and the infrastructure that we have build here, would perhaps be a point which might tilt the decision in our favour.

Dr Kalam is also expected in Oman soon.
----------------------------
Dubai CP receives Indian External Affairs Min.

Oct 6, 2009 - 03:07 -

WAM DUBAI, Oct 6th, 2009: Bilateral relations and between the UAE and India and ways to further promote them in all areas were at the focus of talks by H.H Sheikh Hamdan Bin Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, Crown Prince of Dubai and visiting Minister of state for external affairs Dr Shashi Tharoor.

At the meeting in Ned Al-Shaba, Sheikh Hamdan expressed satisfaction at the economic and investment relations between the two countries and the two peoples who, he said enjoy historic and long-standing ties.

For his part, Tharoor expressed hopes for increased trade and reciprocal investments with the UAE. He hailed the economic boom the UAE enjoys under the prudent leadership which he said was keen on extending cultural, economic and humane bridges The Indian Minister noted that Emirates Airline constitutes a bridge between his country and the UAE.

Present at the meeting were H.H HH Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, Chairman and Chief Executive Emirates Airline '&' Group and President of the Dubai Civil Aviation Authority, Mohammed Ibrahim Al-Shebani, Director of Dubai Crown Prince's Court, Markhan Al-Ketbi, Director of the Dubai Crown Prince's Office and Talmiz Ahmed, Ambassador of India to the UAE.

I think India should be a little dissappointed with the meeting. I think Tharoor is on more of a private visit there, rather than anything else. But I suppose its good that Sh. Hamdan who is going to be the next generation and is popular among the people of the UAE, has met up with Tharoor. Hamdan hasn't been given any portfolio's of importance yet. He is only 27.

----------
GCHQ are looking for lang specialists in: Arabic, Baluchi, Brahui, Chinese, Dari, Farsi, Pashto, Sorani and Somali.

[shyamd]

I am pretty sure this is covert action by Israeli's
Munitions store blown up at Hizballah's South Lebanon command center

First official probe launched against top Iranian opposition leader

[shravan]

Push India, Pak to fix Kashmir: Saudi prince to Obama

In what is being seen here as a disturbing indication of Indian diplomacy falling short of expectations in the Middle-East, one of Saudi Arabia’s most powerful and influential royal family members Turki al-Faisal has openly urged US President Barack Obama to push India and Pakistan to “fix” the Kashmir issue for his AfPak policy to make any progress.
.
.
.
Push India, Pak to fix Kashmir: Saudi prince to Obama

[shyamd]

Turkey holds war game with Syria after removing Israel from air exercise

For two years, Ankara tried to broker a Syrian-Israel peace accord and sought to act as go-between in the disputes between Afghanistan and Pakistan and Syria and Iraq.

[shyamd]

Indo-Oman Air Exercise -- Eastern Bridge to Foster Defence Cooperation Ties
15:10 IST

Indian Air Force (IAF) and Royal Air Force of Oman (RAFO) will conduct a week-long bilateral Air Force exercise codenamed - Eastern Bridge - at the RAFO Base, Thumrait, Oman, from Oct 22-29. This will be the first-ever air exercise between the two countries.

Six, single-seat, Darin-I Jaguars from the Indian side will participate alongside RAFO Jaguars and F-16s. Incidentally, the two Air Forces are among the only ones that continue to operate the twin-engine Jaguar aircraft till date.

The IAF will also involve two IL-78 MKI air-to-air refueler aircraft for tanking the Jaguars enroute to Oman. Meanwhile, an IL-76 will airlift the IAF air warriors to Oman.

The main IAF contingent comprises 33 officers and 65 personnel below officer rank (PBOR). The support team of IL-76 and IL-78 MKI additionally comprises 12 officers and 26 PBOR.

Group Captain V Dedgaonkar is the team leader, while Group Captain K Kale is the Exercise Director for the IAF. The Jaguar Detachment will be led by Wing Commander A Mathur. The pilots belong to the two Jaguar squadrons - 16 (Cobras) and 27 (Flaming Arrows) that are based at IAF’s Gorakhpur airbase under Central Air Command.

A senior Air HQ observer along with one staff officer will also visit the IAF contingent during the period of the exercise.

The exercise in the Gulf region will enhance understanding of operational, maintenance and administrative procedures between RAFO and the IAF. The bilateral exercise would also be cost-effective in terms of benefit realization of operational and tactical preparedness over an unknown mixed terrain of land and desert.

Oman features among IAF’s priority-one country listed for defence cooperation. IAF-RAFO defence cooperation was initiated in 2006, and has increased substantially in the current year. The defence cooperation is characterized by high-level visit exchanges, training and bilateral exercises between the two air forces.

Oman has also been availing courses in India on a self-financing basis. Oman has also been providing turn-around facilities to our transiting military aircraft. Several rounds of Air Force Staff Talks with RAFO have now provided the necessary framework to expand defence cooperation with RAFO and rest of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries. Oman is geographically India’s closest neighbor among the Arab countries in the strategically vital Persian Gulf region. The presence of over 3, 50,000 expatriate Indians and centuries of people-to-.people contact further enhances its importance in India’s security mosaic.

Incidentally, the GCC armed forces meet took place today at Muscat. Oman is the current head of the GCC, so the next year will be important for Bilateral relations along with the GCC.

Added Later:

IAF Preparing to Join Anti-Piracy Operations in Gulf

The IAF is gearing up to join future anti-piracy operations in Gulf of Aden and is holding the first-ever exercise with Omanese Air Force this month to get experience in operating fighter aircraft there.

"The IAF may be called upon to conduct aerial surveillance of the swathe of the Gulf of Aden region, where pirates are widening their area of operations fast," IAF vice chief Air Marshal P K Barbora told reporters

Joining the anti-piracy operations would not mean the IAF would unleash an offensive against the sea brigands, but would carry out surveillance of the vast area that the Navy would be unable to cover due to "speed and manpower" constraints, Barbora said.

"With our (IAF) surveillance capability, we can help the comity of nations fighting the piracy menace there. Navy may not be able to cover the area in terms of speed and number of men. It is not necessary that we use our fire power," he said.

Assuring that the fighter aircraft could perform surveillance role too, the IAF vice chief said with the midair refuelling capability, the fighters' endurance levels to fly for longer hours and patrolling the area increased substantially.

The 'Eastern Bridge' air exercise with Royal Air Force of Oman (RAFO) from October 22 to 29 would focus on achieving jointness and enhancing understanding of operational, maintenance and administrative procedures between the two air forces, he said.

Both India and Oman are the only countries that continue to operate Jaguar air-ground strike fighter fleets and they would bring these jets to the exercise to be held at Thumrait RAFO air base.

Six single-seat twin-engine Darin-I Jaguars of the IAF from 16 Cobras and 27 Flaming Arrows squadrons, based in Gorakhpur in Uttar Pradesh, would participate alongside the RAFO Jaguars and F-16s.

The IAF would also take two IL-78 mid-air re-fueller for tanking the Jaguars to and fro from Oman and an IL-76 heavy lift aircraft for carrying the 45 officers and 91 airmen there.

"The bilateral air exercise would be cost-effective in terms of benefit realisation of operational and tactical preparedness over an unknown mixed terrain of land and desert," Barbora said.

Asked if Oman could support IAF's anti-piracy operations by providing "operational turning around" facility by opening up its airbase for maintenance and fuel, the IAF vice chief replied in the affirmative, saying since the two air forces operated Jaguars, it was possible.

However, to another question, he said there was no proposal to have a permanent base there, though RAFO personnel were being trained at the IAF facilities here in India.

The terrain of Oman is very similar to what you will find in Balochistan/Afghanistan.

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"The exercise will enhance the understanding of operational, maintenance and administrative procedures between the RAFO and the IAF. The bilateral exercise would also be cost-effective in terms of benefit realization of operational and tactical preparedness over an unknown mixed terrain of land and desert," the IAF vice chief, Air Marshal P.K. Barbora, told reporters.


"It would expose our fighter pilots to low flying over unfamiliar terrain," he added.


Asked if through the exercise, the IAF was preparing for anti-piracy operations in support of the Indian Navy, which has deployed its warships in the Gulf of Aden, Barbora said: "We do not know whether we would be called for such operations. But it's better to be prepared."


"In case of a requirement, we can send our fighters for patrolling and surveillance. We can also help our navy in terms of speed and manoeuverability. Such joint exercises would help manifold to come to each other's aid in a short time," he added.


Both air forces will undertake air-to-ground missions, conduct live firing from air to ground and practice integrated training and operations in desert terrain during the joint exercise, for which the IAF would field six single-seater Jaguar fighter bombers while the RAFO would also deploy Jaguars, as also F-16s.

The RAFO is also very close to purchasing Eurofighter typhoons from the British govt. I had mentioned earlier that the Typhoons were secretly demo'd in Oman earlier.

[shyamd]

India's contribution to progress of Oman significant: Consul

Mumbai , Oct 14 Newly appointed Consul General of the Sultanate of Oman Issa Ibrahim Abdullah Al-Farsi today said India&aposs contribution to the economy and progress of Oman was significant.
" India and Oman are linked by geography, history and culture. Oman has 5,50,000 strong Indian community covering the entire spectre of professions," Al-Farsi told Maharashtra Governor S C Jamir during a meeting at the&aposRaj Bhavan&aposhere.

"The Indian community is making significant contribution to the economy and progress of Oman. Growth in business relations will strengthen bilateral relations between the two countries, he said.

Welcoming the new Consul General to Maharashtra, Jamir said,"the ancient, historical and cultural ties and the mutual trust and confidence between India and Oman provide the strong foundations for strengthening our relationship."

India desires to elevate its long-standing relations with Oman into a strategic partnership in all areas, he said.

The Governor told the Consul General that India is looking forward to the visit of Oman King Sultan Qaboos Bin Said to New Delhi to receive the prestigious Jawaharlal Nehru Award for International Understanding. (I expect this to be significant)

Jamir also expressed happiness that the Indian community is actively contributing to the economic development of Oman and that their welfare is looked after by the Government of Oman.

The evil of forced marriages

Whether she returns willingly or brought back forcibly, it is not a matter of immediate concern. The mistake parents usually do in such situation is aggravating the reason their daughter left in the first place instead of retreating cautiously. For some families in the Gulf States, daughters are treated as a commodity rather than a precious offspring. Daughters also have a limited shelf time, just like a product in a shop. Some of the girls oblige to please parents as dutiful children following the deep rooted traditions of forcibly being married off to men they have not met.

When the same young girl came home from her two-day exile, the parents locked her up and prepared the marriage rituals in greater urgency. Such absurdity is not confined only to Gulf nationals but expatriates living here. I happened to meet two women, both in their early thirties, who said, in their own words, "broke the chains of forced marriages and declared self-independence." It might sound like the colonial times but these situations can be more oppressive than political occupations.

The first lady, just six months after arriving in Muscat from India to join her husband she was forced to marry, started to rebel when she met the second woman, an Omani, in a chance encounter. The Indian woman, in her role as a promotion girl, was simply trying to sell a car to the local lady. They exchanged phone numbers and two months later started a business that led them to leave their husbands a year later. It looks like a script written from a movie but it seems like such "marriage desertion," as one Indian diplomat said last week, is growing now here in the Gulf.

Lots of activity in MCT. My sources say Omani Vipers are getting ready for some action.
Omani AF pilots get simulator training at Gorakhpur and have been doing so for many years. Their Jags will be serviced at HAL Bangalore soon. Interoperability is important for both sides.

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Qatar and Iran aren't very close so I have learnt despite how the media makes out. They are actually having major problems with regards to the oil fields. But their war is being fought out with oil rigs marking out their national boundaries.
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Russia and Oman have quietly signed a nuclear deal.

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India and Oman signed a defense agreement last year that includes the possibility of stationing Indian troops in the Arab country, said Indian Defence Ministry sources. The two countries have also decided to join hands in a maritime security arrangement, which will be extended to other countries.

[kmkraoind]

Turkish TV series further strains ties with Israel

Israel on Thursday summoned a Turkish diplomat to protest at "state-sponsored incitement" by state-owned TRT television's "Separation" series, in which actors playing Israeli soldiers and Palestinians fight street battles in Jerusalem.

"The series, which has no connection to reality whatsoever, is not even suitable for an enemy country and certainly not for a country that has full diplomatic relations with Israel," Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said in a statement.

Once again proves that the fangs of islamism cannot be subdued by any other means (despite being secular for 5-6 decades).

P.s. Never fully trust an Islamic nation, always keeps them at respectable distance.

[shyamd]

Hizballah telecommunications knocked out in another mysterious explosion
IDF ops

[svinayak]