Geopolitical thread

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 06 Oct 2009 06:31

In a graphic illustration of the new world order, Arab states have launched secret moves with China, Russia and France to stop using the US currency for oil trading

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 07 Oct 2009 09:02

Dollar's Slide Gives Rise To Calls for New Reserve

surinder · Post by **surinder** » 07 Oct 2009 09:25

Time is not far when TSP will *DEMAND* baksheesh from US in the new currencies. That is what happens to nations that prop terrist regimes.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 07 Oct 2009 17:51

Gore Vidal devastating verdict on the US.

Yet now, he says, it is clear the American experiment has been "a failure". It was all for nothing. Soon the country will be ranked "somewhere between Brazil and Argentina, where it belongs." The Empire will collapse militarily in Afghanistan; the nation will collapse internally when Obama is broken "by the madhouse" and the Chinese call in the country's debts. A ruined United States will then be "the Yellow Man's Burden", and "they'll have us running the coolie cars, or whatever it is they have in the way of transport".

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 98601.html

Excerpt:

Gore Vidal's United States of fury

At 84, the writer and activist may be confined to a wheelchair, but his rage – at his country, its leaders and citizens – burns as fiercely as ever. Johann Hari watches the sparks fly
Wednesday, 7 October 2009

Gore Vidal's brutal manner of criticism hasn't waned. He describes the United States as a 'madhouse' and its President as 'overwhelmed' and 'incompetent'

In Russian, the phrase "gore vidal" means "he has seen grief". As Gore Vidal is wheeled towards me across an empty London hotel lobby, it seems for the first time like an apt translation. In the eight years since I saw him last, he has lost his partner of 50 years, most of his friends, most of his enemies, and the use of his legs. The man I met then – bristling with his own brilliance, scattering witticisms around like confetti – has withered. His skin is like parchment, but the famous cheekbones are still sharp beneath the crags. "It is so cold in here," he says, by way of introduction. "So ****** cold."

Gore Vidal is not only grieving for his own dead circle and his fading life, but for his country. At 83, he has lived through one third of the lifespan of the United States. If anyone incarnates the American century that has ended, it is him. He was America's greatest essayist, one of its best-selling novelists and the wit at every party. He holidayed with the Kennedys, cruised for men with Tennessee Williams, was urged to run for Congress by Eleanor Roosevelt, co-wrote some of the most iconic Hollywood films, damned US foreign policy from within, sued Truman Capote, got fellated by Jack Kerouac, watched his cousin Al Gore get elected President and still lose the White House, and – finally, bizarrely – befriended and championed the Oklahoma bomber, Timothy McVeigh.

Yet now, he says, it is clear the American experiment has been "a failure". It was all for nothing. Soon the country will be ranked "somewhere between Brazil and Argentina, where it belongs." The Empire will collapse militarily in Afghanistan; the nation will collapse internally when Obama is broken "by the madhouse" and the Chinese call in the country's debts. A ruined United States will then be "the Yellow Man's Burden", and "they'll have us running the coolie cars, or whatever it is they have in the way of transport".

A Scotch is fetched for him as he is wheeled into the corner of the bar. "I was like everyone else when Obama was elected – optimistic. Everything we had been saying about racial integration was vindicated," he says, "but he's incompetent. He will be defeated for re-election. It's a pity because he's the first intellectual president we've had in many years, but he can't hack it. He's not up to it. He's overwhelmed. And who wouldn't be? The United States is a madhouse. The country should be put away – and we're being told to go away. Nothing makes any sense." The President "wants to be liked by everybody, and he thought all he had to do was talk reason. But remember – the Republican Party is not a political party. It's a mindset, like Hitler Youth. It's full of hatred. You're not going to get them aboard. Don't even try. The only way to handle them is to terrify them. He's too delicate for that."

When he compares Obama to his old friend Jack Kennedy, he shakes his head. "He's twice the intellectual that Jack was, but Jack knew the great world. Remember he spent a long time in the navy, losing ships. This kid [Obama] has never heard a gun fired in anger. He's absolutely bowled over by generals, who tell him lies and he believes them. He hasn't done anything. If you were faced with great problems in chemistry – to find the perfect gas, to gas a population – you won't know for a long time whether it works. You have to go by what people tell you. He's like that. He's not ready for prime time and he's getting a lot of prime time on his plate at once."

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 07 Oct 2009 17:56

a small minded more hate filled and cauldronish khan as commander of a reduced western hemispheric empire is what I see.

republicans will be happy to re-elect Obama for another term to preside over the mess.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 07 Oct 2009 19:21

Unfortunately Obama could very well be remembered for the demise of American influence in the World. Bush Sr., Clinton and Bush Jr. would be never credited for hand-holding the demise.

kittoo · Post by **kittoo** » 07 Oct 2009 19:33

SwamyG wrote:Unfortunately Obama could very well be remembered for the demise of American influence in the World. Bush Sr., Clinton and Bush Jr. would be never credited for hand-holding the demise.

Exactly my thoughts. And Gore Vidal is spot on, IMVHO, when he says that when Obama was elected everyone was optimistic and now it seems he will not be able to do squat.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 07 Oct 2009 19:47

Johann wrote:Vietnam's relationship with China isn't anything like India's relationship with Pakistan, or even Bangladesh.

You can see that from the way the PLA is deployed, and the scenarios for which they seriously train.

The closest analogy I can think of is India and Sri Lanka - mutual wariness, some bad blood in the past, some disagreements, but overall a bilateral tone of cooperation rather than confrontation. Underlying everything is a common civilisation, and a common political system.

don't quite agree johann. one significant war, disputes over natural resources rich islands, it doesn't really compare with the India SL relation. PLA might not consider the VPA to be a big threat but the VPA certainly considers the PLA to be its main if not only possible adversary.

FWIW, the PVN in particular seems to be intent on increasing its teeth with 6 kilos and 2 gepard class frigates on order with a possibility for another two.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 08 Oct 2009 00:15

Vietnam is wary of being overrun by the Chinese, and have long resented having been ruled by them in the past. Ho Chi Minh explicitly demanded French return to Vietnam at the end of WW2, over the possibility of Chiang Kai-Shek's forces being given control of Vietnam, knowing the French would be easier to subsequently dislodge. The Sri Lankans don't have anywhere near the level of wariness and baggage.

However, they are also cognizant of several shared cultural norms, and the fact that their economic future is significantly tied to China, and are very pragmatic in that regard.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 08 Oct 2009 00:15

Rahul,

It is possible that the dispute over the South China Sea may flare up if Chinese forces are no longer tied up with intimidating Taiwan. That is certainly the Vietnamese fear.

Vietnam wants a independent strategic partners whose diplomatic support and technical assistance in certain areas will dissuade the PRC from making a grab. In the meantime they have seemed keen to avoid conflict with the PRC since the cold war started winding down in 1988. Certainly both avoid the kind of public emotional nationalist rhetoric on both sides you see in China-Taiwan and China-Japan territorial disagreements.

However this is a potential conflict, balanced out by frequent top-level visits between the PVA and PLA, joint patrols, etc. In terms of mutual contact they seem to have closer contact than the PLA does with either with India or Japan.

In addition to state-state and military to military contacts, there is also a lot of high level Party to Party contact - the CPC and the CPV have maintained close ties. The end of the Sino-Soviet rivalry, the collapse of European Communist states and Tiananmen Square scared both of them in to cooperation. The CPV has essentially copied Chinese reforms lock stock and barrel. China is the number one source of Vietnamese imports by far, and the fourth largest recipient of Vietnamese exports.

Just as India is willing to work with the US in balancing the Chinese while simultaneously pursuing improved relations with the Chinese, Vietnam seems to be doing much the same thing, only more so.

Again, this is all very different from the kind of conflict between India and Pakistan, or the conflict with state and non-state actors within Bangladesh. What the Vietnamese want is not a threat to China's territorial integrity as it stands, the legitimacy of the CPC's rule, or the CPC's economic stability and public order.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 08 Oct 2009 00:35

Johann, I'm not comparing sino-vietnamese relations with Indo-pak or India-china relations.
but it is certainly not as docile (comparatively speaking) as India-SL relations. the potential for future flare-ups are much more.
the cause is also clear from what you are saying in your post.

the gist of your post, if I understood correctly is that vietnam, like India is a status quo power. PRC OTOH is primarily an expansionist power. unless that basic fact changes and there are no signs of that happening strong conflicts of interest are inevitable as china expands its wings.

following market economy like PRC or party to party links don't change that.

now vietnam is also an independent minded country, it may not appreciate a full alliance that may antagonize china completely but it will appreciate assistance, especially military assistance that forces PLA to think twice before trying to force a military solution.
JMT.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 08 Oct 2009 01:07

Rahul M wrote:
now vietnam is also an independent minded country, it may not appreciate a full alliance that may antagonize china completely but it will appreciate assistance, especially military assistance that forces PLA to think twice before trying to force a military solution.
JMT.

There is a glitch,
If PRC cannot force military solution in the neighborhood it cannot be considered superpower so they will try for sure to prove their manhood.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Oct 2009 01:14

There is an essay written by Henry Kissinger where he wants the neighboring countries of Afghanistan to be more invovled.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 08 Oct 2009 01:16

that's not necessarily true. you can have a strong neighbour that you can't force even if you are a superpower. military is only one aspect of being a superpower.
USSR couldn't do much in china at the peak of its power. USSR was still considered a superpower, PRC was not.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 08 Oct 2009 01:23

ramana wrote:There is an essay written by Henry Kissinger where he wants the neighboring countries of Afghanistan to be more invovled.

In this sense, the rising hostility between Iran and the US/Israel axis is very heartening for India.

I could easily imagine too-clever-by-half-Henry, peddling a solution where the "policing" of Afghanistan was taken over, in different regions by its two neighbours.

IE the Pakistanis (representing the Sunni KSA bloc) and Iranians (the Shia bloc). All Maw-slum, all the time. NATO burden relieved. Less likelihood of jihad as the West uses Maw-slums to keep Maw-slums in line. Also, the Shia and Sunni interests would be balanced, with potential to ratchet up into a proxy war (as currently occuring in Yemen) whenever the West needed to stir the pot.

As a result, India and Russia would be shut out of Afghanistan completely... India cut off from Central Asia by extension, as well.

So, it's a good thing that Obama (despite the accommodationist posture he came into the WH with) is instead taking a harder line with Iran. Otherwise a "neighbours" scenario might well have come to pass.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 08 Oct 2009 01:31

There is an essay written by Henry Kissinger where he wants the neighboring countries of Afghanistan to be more invovled.

Good essay in Newsweek....somebody has to post it. He says " it is importent for Govt to control 75% of its territory which is 100% free of insurgent then to control 100% of territory which is 75% free of insurgents" ........................wise words indeed.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 08 Oct 2009 01:51

rsingh wrote:
There is an essay written by Henry Kissinger where he wants the neighboring countries of Afghanistan to be more invovled.
Good essay in Newsweek....somebody has to post it. He says " it is importent for Govt to control 75% of its territory which is 100% free of insurgent then to control 100% of territory which is 75% free of insurgents" ........................wise words indeed.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/216704

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 08 Oct 2009 01:56

Hi Rahul,

I was thinking of Indo-SL relations in the 1970s and 1980s when India was concerned that SL might turn in to a USN base, and the Sri Lankans were fearful and angry about Indian military intervention. Even today there is significant Indian concern about SL's growing strategic relationship with China, and its potential as a PLAN base. The Chinese don't want to see a hostile foreign power take over Cam Ranh Bay, just like Indians dont want to see anyone in Trincomalee. Still I agree its not the best analogy.

Maybe another analogy would be Burma's triangular relationship with China and India - like Vietnam there are border disagreements mixed with nationalist suspicion of the Chinese, but like the Vietnamese, the Burmese ruling party also shares a common resentment of the US and Western attacks on their system of government and very close economic ties with the Chinese.

Vietnam will take India's help in certain areas, but Vietnam is just as likely as Myanmar to dial defence cooperation up and down whenever it thinks this will result in concessions from the Chinese.

I would suspect that Indo-Vietnamese military cooperation will only get really serious when the PRC gets around to expanding in the South China Sea in a serious, sustained way.

This is one of the most difficult thing about the Chinese - in general they seem to be the ones who take and keep the strategic and diplomatic initiative, whomever they deal with.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Oct 2009 01:57

Read the comments section! Looks like mini BRF.

BTW, Ram Narayan also has some comments from his e-mailing list. One is a former member of BRF.

Will post once I get home.

One page format:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/216704/output/print

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 08 Oct 2009 02:34

With the new PM of Japan, Hatoyamma making lot of noise before and during the elections, one would want to know what is Japan doing now since he has taken over the PM post. A quick read of the news tells us the following about some of the actions and what is happening in Japan.

1. Japan's foreign minister wants to review the US troops deployed in Japan to ease the burden on the people of Okinawa. Obama is visiting Japan in Nov'09.
2. Japan has mooted the idea of East Asian community that would enhance economic and trade cooperation among nations in the region - including China, South Korea, India, Australia, New Zealand as well as the 10 member nations of ASEAN, or the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
3. Japan is rumored to have been one of the nations that is working a scheme to trade oil in currency other than US dollar. The other countries rumored to be in the group are Franece, Russia, China and certain Gulf countries.
4. Japan, along with China, backs South Korea to host the next G20 summit.
5. Japan favors including Australia in the East Asian community.
6. Prime Minister, Hatoyamma has been promoting his party (DPJ) politicians over the existing pro-American members of the outgoing LDP's members.
7. Foreign Minister, Okada, has ordered an inquiry into alleged Japanese-US nuclear pacts. A report is expected by the end of November.
8. Japan possibly might revise the Status of Forces Agreement, thereby terminating the Maritime Self-Defense Force's refueling mission in the Indian Ocean. Japan does not plan to extend the mission. USA wants to continue due to Afghanistan operations.
9. Japan’s economy contracted 15.2 percent in the first quarter of 2009—the fastest pace since records began in 1955 and the fourth straight quarter of negative growth. Exports plunged 26 percent in that quarter, the steepest decline on record. The latest numbers show the vulnerability of a country reliant on international trade to fuel growth, with the Chinese market central to this strategy
10. Japan has joined calls for the release of Suu Kyi in Burma, but has not joined the blunt criticism of USA and Europeans.

Irrespective of whether one believes China's number on its GDP or economy, looks like Japan recognizes the fact that it needs to hedge its future; and what this means is distant itself from USA and move towards China and Asia. What this means is China gets a boost by the Worlds second largest economy - Japan. Japan's credential of blending its age old culture and custom with democracy and its companies producing quality products is well known. China will be happy to see thawing of relationship even further. These could make China brazen and potentially it could make a run for one of the top posts in the multi-polar world.

Another country to watch is Australia. Australian media have been making noises that makes one believe they care for what is happening in India and elsewhere. This only means, people are moving their eyes; and we know out of sight is out of mind.

The question is will Japan be to China what Europe was to USA? The left leaning Europe sometimes acts as the conscience for the right leaning USA.

We are at that juncture where Japan is yet to do a "cut and run". It still will retain its relationship with USA. But you never know what will happen once its friendship blossoms with China.

I recommend reading all the below links:
Links:
1) http://www.rgemonitor.com/us-monitor/25 ... _also_sets
2) http://www.newsweek.com/id/216693
3) http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/ ... 918a2.html
4) http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?id=4375
5) http://www.irrawaddy.org/highlight.php?art_id=16794

Long story short, watch Japan.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 08 Oct 2009 12:07

The secret EU plan to forge a "Europa",which will handle all matters of defence and foreign affairs,will spell the end of the US-British special relationship.Under Blair,Britain wanted to be Marshal Bush's deputy as he went around the world waging war like Don Quixote,leaving a legacy of hate in the Muslim world for the US and its allies.Ambitious Blair now wants to be the first head of a united Europe and despite the opposition from the Tories still is in with a chance.The economic downfall of the US and the catastrophe that hit crony capitalism has made the world see that the US has feet of clay.The way the war is being lost in Afghanistan is the other side of the same coin.A superpower being brought to its knees.

Ameet · Post by **Ameet** » 08 Oct 2009 20:56

Nearly 1 in 4 people worldwide is Muslim

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/1 ... index.html

Nearly one in four people worldwide is Muslim -- and they are not necessarily where you might think, according to an extensive new study that aims to map the global Muslim population.

India, a majority-Hindu country, has more Muslims than any country except for Indonesia and Pakistan, and more than twice as many as Egypt.

China has more Muslims than Syria. Germany has more Muslims than Lebanon. And Russia has more Muslims than Jordan and Libya put together.

Nearly two out of three of the world's Muslims are in Asia, stretching from Turkey to Indonesia.

The Middle East and north Africa, which together are home to about one in five of the world's Muslims, trail a very distant second.

There are about 1.57 billion Muslims in the world, according to the report, "Mapping the Global Muslim Population," by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life. That represents about 23 percent of the total global population of 6.8 billion.

There are about 2.25 billion Christians, based on projections from the 2005 World Religions Database.

Brian Grim, the senior researcher on the Pew Forum project, was slightly surprised at the number of Muslims in the world, he told CNN.

"Overall, the number is higher than I expected," he said, noting that earlier estimates of the global Muslim population have ranged from 1 billion to 1.8 billion.

The report can -- and should -- have implications for United States policy, said Reza Aslan, the best-selling Iranian-American author of "No God but God."

"Increasingly, the people of the Middle East are making up a smaller and smaller percentage of the worldwide Muslim community," he told CNN by phone.

"When it comes to issues of outreach to the Muslim world, these numbers will indicate that outreach cannot be focused so narrowly on the Middle East," he said.

"If the goal is to create better understanding between the United States and the Muslim world, our focus should be on south and southeast Asia, not the Middle East," he said.

He spoke to CNN before the report was published and without having seen its contents, but was familiar with the general trends the report identified.

The team at the Pew Forum spent nearly three years analyzing "the best available data" from 232 countries and territories, Grim said.

Their aim was to get the most comprehensive snapshot ever assembled of the world's Muslim population at a given moment in time.

So they took the data they gathered from national censuses and surveys, and projected it forward based on what they knew about population growth in each country.

They describe the resulting report as "the largest project of its kind to date."

It's full of details that even the researchers found surprising.

"There are these countries that we don't think of as Muslim at all, and yet they have very sizable numbers of Muslims," said Alan Cooperman, the associate director of research for the Pew Forum, naming India, Russia and China.

One in five of the world's Muslims lives in a country where Muslims are a minority.

And while most people think of the Muslim population of Europe is being composed of immigrants, that's only true in western Europe, Cooperman said.

"In the rest of Europe -- Russia, Albania, Kosovo, those places -- Muslims are an indigenous population," he said. "More than half of the Muslims in Europe are indigenous."

The researchers also were surprised to find the Muslim population of sub-Saharan Africa to be as low as they concluded, Cooperman said.

It has only about 240 million Muslims -- about 15 percent of all the world's Muslims.

Islam is thought to be growing fast in the region, with countries such as Nigeria, which has large populations of both Christians and Muslims, seeing violence between the two groups.

The Pew researchers concluded that Nigeria is just over half Muslim, making it the sixth most populous Muslim country in the world.

Roughly nine out of 10 Muslims worldwide are Sunni, and about one in 10 is Shiite, they estimated.

They warned they were less confident of those numbers than of the general population figures because sectarian data is harder to come by.

"Only one or two censuses in the world ... have ever asked the sectarian question," said Grim.

"Among Muslims it's a very sensitive question. If asked, large numbers will say I am just a Muslim -- not that they don't know, but it is a sensitive question in many places," he said.

One in three of the world's Shiite Muslims lives in Iran, which is one of only four countries with a Shiite majority, he said. The others are Iraq, Azerbaijan, and Bahrain.

Huge as the project of mapping the world's Muslim population is, it is only the first step in a Pew Forum undertaking.

Next year, the think tank intends to release a report projecting Muslim population growth into the future, and then the researchers intend to do the whole thing over again with Christians, followed by other faith groups.

"We don't care only about Muslims," Grim said.

They're also digging into what people believe and practice, since the current analysis doesn't analyze that.

"This is no way reflects the religiosity of people, only their self-identification," Grim said. "We're trying to get the overall picture of religion in the world."

Fact Box
Report: Top 10 Muslim countries, by population

1. Indonesia: 202,867,000 (country is 88.2 percent Muslim)

2. Pakistan: 174,082,000 (country is 96.3 percent Muslim)

3. India: 160,945,000 (country is 13.4 percent Muslim)

4. Bangladesh: 145,312,000 (country is 89.6 percent Muslim)

5. Egypt: 78,513,000 (country is 94.6 percent Muslim)

6. Nigeria: 78,056,000 (country is 50.4 percent Muslim)

7. Iran: 73,777,000 (country is 99.4 percent Muslim)

8. Turkey: 73,619,000 (country is about 98 percent Muslim)

9. Algeria: 34,199,000 (country is 98 percent Muslim)

10. Morocco: 31,993,000 (country is about 99 percent Muslim)

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 10 Oct 2009 00:05

How can this happen.
Decades of encouragement has created global turmoil

French arrest physicist suspected of al-Qaida link
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091009/ap_ ... lab_arrest

By ALEXANDER G. HIGGINS, Associated Press Writer – 44 mins ago
GENEVA – A nuclear physicist working at the world's largest atom smasher has been arrested on suspicion of links to the Algerian branch of al-Qaida, another blow to a project that has been plagued by glitches and was shut down after a massive electrical failure a year ago.
The scientist, arrested in France, is suspected of having links to al-Qaida's North African offshoot, which has carried out a deadly campaign against security forces in recent months, a French official said Friday.
The judicial official said the suspect was one of two brothers arrested Thursday in southeastern French city of Vienne. The official spoke anonymously because the case is ongoing.

The scientist has been assigned to analysis projects at the laboratory since 2003, and was one of more than 7,000 scientists working on the Large Hadron Collider, the world's largest atom smasher, said the European Organization for Nuclear Research, known as CERN.
The physicist had no contact with anything that could be used for terrorism, it said.
"None of our research has potential for military application, and all our results are published openly in the public domain," the organization said.

The LHCb experiment where he worked is the smallest of a series of installations along the 17-mile (27-kilometer) circular tunnel under the Swiss-French border.
The nuclear research organization said the man, whom it did not identify, was arrested Thursday in the eastern French city of Vienne, 33 kilometers (20 miles) south of Lyon.
The men were French and aged 25 and 32, police said. The arrest was part of a French judge's probe into suspected terrorist links.

Police searched the suspects' apartments and seized their computers.
Al-Qaida in Islamic Maghreb regularly targets Algerian government forces and occasionally attacks foreigners.
The collider started spectacularly in September 2008 with beams of particles flying in both directions on the first day of trying. But later that month an electric failure because of a construction fault caused the entire machine to shut down. It has been undergoing repairs almost ever since.

Spokeswoman Renilde Vanden Broeck said there was no indication of sabotage in the shutdown and that the arrested man would have had access only to the small experiment he was working on, and not to the tunnel itself.
The projects are aimed at making discoveries about the makeup of matter when the Large Hadron Collider starts collecting data later this year or early next year.

"LHCb is an experiment set up to explore what happened after the Big Bang that allowed matter to survive and build the universe we inhabit today," said a description on the organization's Web site.
The Big Bang was a vast explosion that scientists theorize was the beginning of the universe 14 billion years ago.
The European laboratory has been working for years to build the $10 billion collider.
Not all physicists working on the LHCb project were informed of the arrest.
"This is news to me," said Ken Wyllie, one of dozens of scientists in the department.
The prosecutor's office in the Isere region said the arrest of the physicist had been transferred to the anti-terrorist section of the Paris prosecutor's office.

Many of the scientists at the laboratory, whether or not they are employees of the organization or of other institutes around the world, live in France, and about half the operation is on French territory.
The nuclear research organization said the man was affiliated with an outside institute.
The laboratory said it is providing the support requested by the French police in the inquiry.
____
Associated Press writers Bradley S. Klapper and Frank Jordans in Geneva, and Deborah Seward in Paris contributed to this report.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 11 Oct 2009 01:56

Turkey and Armenia Sign Accord

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 11 Oct 2009 05:18

Ameet wrote:Nearly 1 in 4 people worldwide is Muslim

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/1 ... index.html
...
Report: Top 10 Muslim countries, by population

1. Indonesia: 202,867,000 (country is 88.2 percent Muslim)

2. Pakistan: 174,082,000 (country is 96.3 percent Muslim)

3. India: 160,945,000 (country is 13.4 percent Muslim)

4. Bangladesh: 145,312,000 (country is 89.6 percent Muslim)

5. Egypt: 78,513,000 (country is 94.6 percent Muslim)

6. Nigeria: 78,056,000 (country is 50.4 percent Muslim)

7. Iran: 73,777,000 (country is 99.4 percent Muslim)

8. Turkey: 73,619,000 (country is about 98 percent Muslim)

9. Algeria: 34,199,000 (country is 98 percent Muslim)

10. Morocco: 31,993,000 (country is about 99 percent Muslim)

If, by some miracle Pakistan survives as a nation-state for another 25 years until 2035, UN population estimates suggest it is likely to overtake Indonesia and become the world's most populous Muslim country.

http://esa.un.org/unpp/

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 12 Oct 2009 05:14

Japan continues to work its neighbors. The Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada has proposed a history text book with joint inputs from China, Japan and S.Korea. One more step towards focusing on East Asia.

Joint History Text book

Meanwhile the Japanese PM Hayotma has said the following in a summit attended by the leaders of China, Japan and S.Korea:

“Japan has relied a bit too much on the United States until now,” Hatoyama told his counterparts on Saturday. “I would like to map out policies to reach out to Asia, as a country of Asia.”

“This new Japan would like to construct the East Asia community eventually,” he added, expressing a will to overcome a score of long-running disputes.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 12 Oct 2009 05:45

Like I said, I would worry about India being left out of any East Asian economic bloc, just as Turkey was left out of EU. We could end up having to beg them for entry, if we don't watch out.

I think that we should pre-emptively form free trade agreements with other East Asian nations.

I also think that we should seek closer economic and political ties with South America, as a hedge.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 12 Oct 2009 11:18

Japan has a lefty govt, and they are differentiating themselves from the past by reducing support for some of the LDP's policies blatantly kowtowing to the US. They don't plan to strain the friendship too badly, because they are dependent upon it. Meanwhile, they have to mend ties with China, because they have to coexist with them too, and mending these ties reduces their dependency upon the US.

But could Japan form an Asian version of the EU in which it plays the same role as Germany does to bankroll it?
Well, Germany is first among equals in the EU, but Japan would definitely not be first among equals in an Asian-EU -- at least not for long.
But just as Germany and Russia are overcoming past adversarialism to join hands economically, could Japan and China likewise similarly do so? Well, Russia needs German friendship in order to counter the animosity from the rest of Europe. But why would China need Japan as a gatekeeper or balancer for Chinese ties with the rest of Asia? Japan is not a member of ASEAN, for example. I suppose China would need warmer ties with Japan to keep the US as the odd man out.

Well, if US economic decline causes its power to recede from the area, then Japan may be destined to lose all its geopolitical cards.
That would eventually force it back either into a posture of submissiveness (eg. like Canada next to US, or like Finland next to USSR) or else militarism.
I don't think an aging Japan will be able to shift towards militarism easily.

kittoo · Post by **kittoo** » 12 Oct 2009 12:29

It increasingly looks that as US power recedes and as Chinese power grows, the only powerful enough bet US has of countering China in Asia is India. I believe that faster US power declines, better it will be for India as US will come to realize the fact sooner that the stupid policy of using Pak so that 'India doesnt become powerful enough sometime in the future' is like shooting themselves in foot.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 12 Oct 2009 20:33

prad wrote: a country of US's size, with the vast resources and huge population has nowhere but to go UP. the stable 3% growth rate of US will go on for a long time to come, and that alone is enough to keep US power in tact and keep it as one of the major decision makers of the world.

The advantages that you mention are necessary for it to continue to be a big power in the multi-polar World. If it did not have those, it would go down like some of the former European power houses. Unless there are major scientific discoveries or inventions that will give USA further advantages that others can not easily attain, it will be only one of the big-powers, and not the only one.

If one considered just the population, land size and access to resources - USA & China would be the tier-I powers. India has enough potential to be a tier-II power. Russia, Brazil, Indonesia & Iran could be a tier-III power/influential countries. It is notable that there is always one or two Indian Ocean countries in the tier-II and tier-III power centers.

Potential only goes so much, finally what happens depends on ambition and implementation. So India can become Tier-I or a Tier-III in a jiffy.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 13 Oct 2009 06:58

I agree that the US will be one of the big powers, not the only one. but the US will be the biggest power. nobody will challenge them without a solid coalition with at least one other powerful country/ally.

Something that game-theorists, ape-researchers and anthropologists have long known. That the moment a visibly 'strongest' power emerges, and given it is short of invincible, other powers form implicit coalitions to avoid being eaten in part or in whole, one by one.

The US is the hyperpower simply because its hard power superiority is so overwhelming (higher than Pax Romana at its peak) that it was understood to actually have a chance at preventing such coalition formation against its interests after the USSR became history, in the 90s. That it squandered this opportunity is another story. Anyway 9/11 proved that the khanate was not invincible or even so strong as to be above fear. (Not yet at any rate.)

IMHO, Pax Indica, itself a coalition of diverse interests bound by a common nonthreatening, open and assimilitive core is the way to go to rise above enemies and build and cement enduring civilizations..... I know, am biased maybe, but thats how I read it....

Shwetank · Post by **Shwetank** » 13 Oct 2009 09:48

the stable 3% growth rate of US will go on for a long time to come

This hasn't been going on for a long time, recent US GDP growth for at least the last decade (although more like 2-3 decades) has been hollow debt-based games. Ofcourse if by go on you mean being the US they get to bend and rewrite rules unlike everyone else and make it the formal truth, then yes it can go on and has been stable but if genuine underlying truth eventually trumps official versions (meaning thermodynamics applies even with mathematical virtual games) is more a philosophical question and matter of belief. A few decades of stagnation are probable and pessimistic views where a lot of core skills and businesses have been outsourced leaving middlemen and upper level management jobs with low unskilled jobs (kind of like India under Brit Raj) are thrown around (and occured to some degree). Ofcourse there is huge potential, especially with incoming immigrants and growing pop. and past US attitude to such situations, but a few decades of stagnations/decline are likely and a slow descent living standard and such have significant possibility. The economic/financial blow is severe.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 13 Oct 2009 10:53

i appreciate your comparison of me as an ape researcher. though, if you meant that as an extremely smart and analytical Harvard Ph.D. Zoologist, i'm flattered.

Huh? Talk about egotism....not everything has to be about oneself.

What moi stated has nothing to do with you, noble sir. It was just as stated. Researchers studying the behaviour of apes (chimps, gorillas, orang utans) found that apes form coalitions when any one of them gets too strong. A new equilibrium is restored after the leadership issue is settled when the strong one defeats and drives away the previous leader.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 13 Oct 2009 19:36

^ most of us take ourselves way too seriously way too much of the time. I like some of your ideas on some subjects of common interests. Sad that Sanjay M got banned, another sharp commentator on geopol issues....

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 13 Oct 2009 21:23

Prad: The issue is not America's current supremacy, I doubt anybody is going to disagree with that. How long will this uncontested supremacy last? That is the question the current economic meltdown and the rising of China and India throw up.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 13 Oct 2009 21:25

Uh oh..... boss log let us keep this thread nice. We don't want unnecessary attention.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 13 Oct 2009 21:52

More action from 'Land of the Rising Sun'

1. Japan 'will end' Afghan mission in January 2010

Japan will end its refuelling mission in support of the US-led military operation in Afghanistan, Defence Minister Toshimi Kitazawa has said.

2. Japan to strengthen ties with ASEAN, boost investment in Indonesia

Japan would strengthen its relation with ASEAN and increase investment in Indonesia, Indonesian Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda quoted Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada as saying on Tuesday evening here.

Japan continues its march towards the East. Let me tell you, it looks that if one needs to know about the Japanese Foreign Minister, one has to read his books. Both the PM and FM might not be just all about talk, they might be ideologues who are ready for some action. How much would they get done is the question. We know Obama wanted to do a lot, but the system just doesn't allow him the room.

It is to be noted that the British and Asian newspapers have been steadily making the news of Japan trying to get out of the US influence. The American newspaper then pick up the lines. Since Japan is not Fiji, we need to watch what Japan is doing.

3. AUTOSHOW-Tokyo Motor no-show? Japan snubbed as market shrinks
Wow, look at the language. There is lot of cloud over the crystal ball, can anybody see clearly?

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 14 Oct 2009 16:56

An unlikely blast from the past,that Il Duce began his career as a British agent!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/oc ... -mi5-italy

Recruited by MI5: the name's Mussolini. Benito MussoliniDocuments reveal Italian dictator got start in politics in 1917 with help of £100 weekly wage from MI5

Tom Kington in Rome
Benito Mussolini was paid £100 a week by MI5 to keep Italy in the first world war. Photograph: Bettmann/Corbis

History remembers Benito Mussolini as a founder member of the original Axis of Evil, the Italian dictator who ruled his country with fear and forged a disastrous alliance with Nazi Germany. But a previously unknown area of Il Duce's CV has come to light: his brief career as a British agent.

Archived documents have revealed that Mussolini got his start in politics in 1917 with the help of a £100 weekly wage from MI5.

For the British intelligence agency, it must have seemed like a good investment. Mussolini, then a 34-year-old journalist, was not just willing to ensure Italy continued to fight alongside the allies in the first world war by publishing propaganda in his paper. He was also willing to send in the boys to "persuade'' peace protesters to stay at home.

Mussolini's payments were authorised by Sir Samuel Hoare, an MP and MI5's man in Rome, who ran a staff of 100 British intelligence officers in Italy at the time.

Cambridge historian Peter Martland, who discovered details of the deal struck with the future dictator, said: "Britain's least reliable ally in the war at the time was Italy after revolutionary Russia's pullout from the conflict. Mussolini was paid £100 a week from the autumn of 1917 for at least a year to keep up the pro-war campaigning – equivalent to about £6,000 a week today."

Hoare, later to become Lord Templewood, mentioned the recruitment in memoirs in 1954, but Martland stumbled on details of the payments for the first time while scouring Hoare's papers.

As well as keeping the presses rolling at Il Popolo d'Italia, the newspaper he edited, Mussolini also told Hoare he would send Italian army veterans to beat up peace protesters in Milan, a dry run for his fascist blackshirt units.

"The last thing Britain wanted were pro-peace strikes bringing the factories in Milan to a halt. It was a lot of money to pay a man who was a journalist at the time, but compared to the £4m Britain was spending on the war every day, it was petty cash," said Martland.

"I have no evidence to prove it, but I suspect that Mussolini, who was a noted womaniser, also spent a good deal of the money on his mistresses."

After the armistice, Mussolini began his rise to power, assisted by electoral fraud and blackshirt violence, establishing a fascist dictorship by the mid-1920s.

His colonial ambitions in Africa brought him into contact with his old paymaster again in 1935. Now the British foreign secretary, Hoare signed the Hoare-Laval pact, which gave Italy control over Abyssinia.

"There is no reason to believe the two men were friends, although Hoare did have an enduring love affair with Italy," said Martland, whose research is included in Christopher Andrew's history of MI5, Defence of the Realm, which was published last week.

The unpopularity of the Hoare-Laval pact in Britain forced Hoare to resign. Mussolini, meanwhile, built on his new colonial clout to ally with Hitler, entering the second world war in 1940, this time to fight against the allies.

Deposed following the allied invasion of Italy in 1943, Mussolini was killed with his mistress, Clara Petacci, by Italian partisans while fleeing Italy in an attempt to reach Switzerland two years later.

Martland said: "Mussolini ended his life hung upside down in Milan, but history has not been kind to Hoare either, condemned as an appeaser of fascism alongside Neville Chamberlain."

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 14 Oct 2009 20:09

the assumption of today's forecasting is that US will continue to remain down while China will continue to rise. both assumptions are overstated and contrary to the underlying fundamentals of both economies.

No that is not the assumption. The assumption is China (and India) will continue to grow at far greater pace than USA. While the Indian GDP is just about 10% of the American GDP, I look at as a case of tremendous opportunity for growth.

Let us take India and USA. India is a 12yr old boy, and USA is a 32 yr old man. It so happens that the 32-yr old man befriended the wrong people, smoked lots of weed, drank alcohol a lot, ate too much red meat, did not exercise enough, did not go for his annual checkups. His internal organs cried and tried to warn him. Since he could beat the hell out of few people, he had a job (and so did his girlfriend) he thought everything was hunky-dowry.

On an any given day the 32-yr old could probably lift more weight than the 12-yr old boy. The 12-yr is no doubt frail and weak. But he is a growing boy, and looks like he is going to get nutritious meal (though he will have to struggle for it). He might have to get down to the streets, this might make him 'rough & tough'.

If the 12-yr continues to grow (teenagers grow exponentially), there will come a time when the young boy would be able to do things that the older guy would be doing, though he is going to be always younger than the older guy.

The growth of 32-yr and 12-yr are mutually exclusive for the most part, until they start interfering in each others growth.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 14 Oct 2009 22:45

One of these days even Hitler will turn out to be in cahoots with the Brits!