Geopolitical thread

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 30 Oct 2009 05:28

A Question to experts ,
Can Jaguars make a dash from Oman to Gwadar and shower good stuff on the port ?

Prasad · Post by **Prasad** » 30 Oct 2009 06:10

iirc the jaguar's range is around 500 km and from gmaps, it is ~450km from musqat to gwadar. So it could be just about possible.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 30 Oct 2009 07:22

Japan Round-UP
Richard Haas and Sheila Smith of CFR are in Japan. Japanese PM Hatoyama has assured of a "full review" of Japan-US relations. Obama's trip is just around the corner. Meanwhile Vietnam hails the East Asia community Hatoyama has proposed - regional consolidation. Also the news is that Robert Gates turned very grumpy in Tokyo. It looks like he did not get want he wanted and was frustrated. So what did he want? Just some friendly affirmative noises from Hatoyama. Instead he got 'maybes' and 'dont knows'. The Japanese FM is not going to attend the next meeting of G20 country finance ministers. Reason - extraordinary Parliamentary session has been called in. So he is sending in his sub.

Wouldn't all this be a charm if Hatoyama was just playing games at behest of Unkil?

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 30 Oct 2009 07:40

Prem & tsriram, don't forget that the Jaguars also have mid-air refuelling facility.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 30 Oct 2009 07:51

Thanks guys,
Wont be wonderful to have air base in Oman . One of these days India has to resume her traditional role of providing protection to the Gulf states . Control of air space and sea lanes from the Mouth of Gulf to Malacca Strait and aggresive wath on Karakoram Highway will go long way to mend China's behavior.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 30 Oct 2009 12:19

Prem wrote: One of these days India has to resume her traditional role of providing protection to the Gulf states .

They have to start with Using Indian currency as the reserve currency which was the centuries old practice

shravan · Post by **shravan** » 30 Oct 2009 12:30

Egypt offers India exclusive zone along Suez Canal

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 31 Oct 2009 00:04

Acharya wrote:
Prem wrote: One of these days India has to resume her traditional role of providing protection to the Gulf states .

When was this? Can you provide some examples?

BijuShet · Post by **BijuShet** » 31 Oct 2009 00:31

Jarita wrote: When was this? Can you provide some examples?

From Wiki: History of the rupee

...
Persian Gulf issues: For many years in the early and mid 20th century, the Indian rupee was the official currency in several areas that were controlled by the British and governed from India; areas such as East Africa, Southern Arabia and the Persian Gulf. The rupees used in the Persian Gulf had been bought by the Gulf states from the Reserve Bank of India, who held the sterling reserves by which the rupees had originally been purchased. However, Indian rupees were being smuggled from India to the states of the Persian Gulf in exchange for gold. It was estimated in 1959 that the total amount of gold in private hands in India was about $US1.75 to 2 billion--roughly two thirds of the value of paper money in circulation. While it was legal to own and to trade in gold within India, it was illegal to import or export gold. The Gulf Rupee, also known as the Persian Gulf Rupee (XPGR), was introduced by the Indian government as a replacement for the Indian Rupee for circulation exclusively outside the country with the Reserve Bank of India Amendment Act, 1 May 1959. After India devalued the rupee on 6 June 1966, those countries still using it - Oman, Qatar and what is now the United Arab Emirates (known as the Trucial States until 1971) - replaced the Gulf Rupee with their own currencies. Kuwait and Bahrain had already done so in 1961 and 1965 respectively.
...

The link has more details.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 31 Oct 2009 02:23

Jarita, You could alao have tried to find out na from google or wiki?

So till atleast forty years ago Rupee was legal tender in Gulf and we were not even aware of it. One generation of gubo-dhimmis has erased civilizational memories.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 01 Nov 2009 07:43

Cyprus backs India's UNSC seat

President of Cyprus Demetris Christofias on Saturday reiterated his country’s support for India’s claim for a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council.

Mr. Christofias said this at a meeting he had with visiting Indian President Pratibha Patil. Ms. Patil in turn assured the Cypriot President that India stood for the “independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity and unity of the Republic of Cyprus.” Ms. Patil, the first Indian President to visit Cyprus in 21 years, said this in the context of Cyprus losing a third of its territory to Turkey following a military intervention by the latter in 1974.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 02 Nov 2009 18:11

My continued "Look Japan" policy.......as I think Japan needs to be watched before and during Obama visit. Japan is wrestling its way into Asia more and more; and for how long with the new Japanese administration maintain its anti-American portrayal!

1. Hillary Clinton's meeting with Katsuya Okada, Japanese FM meeting postponed, ahead of Obama's visit.
2. Hatoyama's support in Japan has dropped 10% because of his policy decisions.
3. Japan is preparing an aid package for infrastructure to Afghanistan - up to $5 billion.
4. There is a view that thinks Robert Gates embarrassed Hatoyama, insulted Defense Ministry officials and inflamed public opinion. Linky.

As he takes Japan in new directions, Hatoyama is bumping up against Washington. For one thing, he wants to end Japan’s eight-year-old refueling site in the Indian Ocean, which supports NATO operations in Afghanistan, as well as investigate secret arrangements reached in the early 1960s regarding the shipment and storage in Japan of American nuclear weapons. Most important, he is now trying to show Japan is an equal partner in the alliance by renegotiating a 2006 agreement to reorganize American forces in his country. A particular sore point is Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, which is located near residential areas on Okinawa. Simply put, the Japanese prime minister wants the base off the island, not merely transferred to another part of it.

The displays of American anger may be personally satisfying, but they are certainly unproductive, and it is up to the U.S. to heal the widening breach. For one thing, Washington has an obligation to defend South Korea and cannot do so without a stable alliance with Japan.

There is something fundamentally wrong with Washington’s policies in Asia.

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 04 Nov 2009 08:06

India fast becoming Asia's 'swing state'

http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/NEWKHSITE/ ... 040048.asp

India was President George W. Bush's big strategic play in the twilight of his presidency. New Delhi is now confirmed as one of Obama's strategic priorities early in his administration. But the courtship of India has much broader consequences. If India's unpredictable political parties remain committed to continue reforms, and the bilateral partnership between Washington and New Delhi continue to deepen, a rising India (along with a still-dominant America) could be the "swing factor" in this so-called "Asian Century."

Importantly, The U.S.-India partnership is getting good "buy in" from key states in Asia who do not feel nervous or threatened by India's rise. For example, New Delhi already conducts extensive naval exercises with Jakarta, and increasingly with Tokyo, Singapore and Kuala Lumpur. Traditionally known for diplomatic aloofness, India is now a full ASEAN dialogue partner. New Delhi is planning to create over 500 new positions in its Ministry of External Affairs over the next 10 years.

After an initially churlish reluctance to take up the baton - demonstrated by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's shunning of New Delhi on her inaugural trip to Asia - the Obama administration has seen the irresistible logic of nurturing the extremely promising strategic relationship with India. Criticized for incompetence in other areas of foreign policy execution, the Bush administration had done too good a job in forging enduring institutional, bureaucratic and personal links between Washington and New Delhi for the Democrats to change direction and scupper any good work done.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 05 Nov 2009 02:56

Continuing to look towards the Land of Rising Sun:
1. Some guy quoting few analysts says To Balance China, India Turns to Japan
2. Hatoyama seems to be more flexible towards normalization of relationship with NoKo than earlier adminstrations. Linky
3. Media continues to hype the meeting that was canceled, between Hillary and Okada. There is a report that says USA apologizes to Japan over the cancellation. Linky

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 05 Nov 2009 21:49

^ 'the japan that can say NO' coming true long after the book was first written, seems like.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 05 Nov 2009 22:40

^^^
Please provide more gyan to us. A brief paragraph giving the gist will be very useful. Thanks in advance.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 05 Nov 2009 22:51

^ err am no gyani on this but the ref above is to a 1992 book by a Jap politico Shintaro Ishihara.

Amazon link to the book

Best it be for moi to excerpt from a review:

This book was a million-seller in Japan, and was translated into English in 1991. The author was a promininet Japanese politician. The book is dated, and history has not always borne out the author's views. Nonetheless, anyone attempting to understand modern Japan should read it. Some of the passages will be very surprising and disturbing.

Author Ishihara avoids the conventionally polite Japanese protocol and forcefully states that Japan is the equal of the United States, that Japan should have its own defense forces, (and strong ones), that Japanese computer technology is second to none and should be used as a negotiating tool, and Japan will be the most influential power in dealing with Asian nations.

Ishihara berates America for racism, and contends that the atomic bomb was not used on Germany because Germans were white, and Japanese were yellow. He asserts that nations colonized by Japan have been far more successful following liberation than those colonized by the United States.

The book exemplifies the growing trend toward national pride in Japan, and also forcefully addresses the feeling by many Japanese that their nation is misunderstood.

Plainly, the sentiments in the book foretell a troubled period in Japanese-American relations, and remind us that the Japanese have not forgotten Hiroshima any more than America has forgotten Pearl Harbor. Ishihara's call for a constructive dialogue between the two nations is well taken. Otherwise, the future looks cloudy at best.

Very highly recommended, even if slightly dated.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 05 Nov 2009 23:18

China’s military making strides in space: US

* Republican Congressman calls for transparency on anti-satellite weapons

WASHINGTON: China’s military has made dramatic progress in space over the past decade and the goals of its programme remain unclear, a top American general said on Tuesday.

Citing Beijing’s advances in space, General Kevin Chilton, head of US Strategic Command, said it was crucial to cultivate US-China military relations to better understand China’s intentions. “With regard to China’s capabilities, I think anyone who’s familiar with this business - and particularly our history in this business over the years - would have to be absolutely amazed at the advancement that China has made in such a short period of time, whether that be in their unmanned programme or the manned programme,” Chilton told reporters in a teleconference, referring to Beijing’s space programme.

“They have rapidly advanced over the last ten years,” he said from Omaha, Nebraska. “Where they’re heading I think is one of those things that a lot of people would like to understand better, what their goals and objectives are. But they certainly are on a fast track to improve their capabilities,” he said. Chilton’s comments came after a top Chinese air force commander, Xu Qiliang, called the militarisation of space a “historical inevitability” and said that the country’s military was developing offensive and defensive operations in space.

Chilton acknowledged that space had become an arena for military rivalry, with an increasing number of countries pursuing space-based weaponry - including Iran and North Korea. “Clearly, I think what we’ve all come to understand is that space is a contested domain. It used to be looked at like a sanctuary. And clearly that’s not the case today,” the air force general said.

Asked about the Chinese commander’s remarks, Chilton said that Beijing’s space programme “is an area that we’ll want to explore and understand exactly what China’s intentions are here, and why they might want to go in that direction and what grounds might accommodate a different direction.”

Transparency: A Republican member of Congress adopted a tougher tone, criticising China for pursuing space weapons and for shooting down a weather satellite in 2007.

“Despite public declarations to the contrary, Beijing’s continued investment in anti-satellite technologies and yesterday’s revelation by a senior Chinese military official, demonstrate a clear intent to pursue offensive space capabilities,” Representative Michael Turner of Ohio said in a statement. When President Barack Obama visits China in a tour of Asia this month, he should “pressure Chinese officials to provide greater transparency regarding their intentions for the development, test, and deployment of anti-satellite weapons,” Turner said.

In January 2007, China shot down one of its own weather satellites in a test seen by the United States and others as a possible trigger of an arms race in space. Chilton said a visit last week to Strategic Command headquarters by General Xu Caihou, China’s second-ranking military officer, marked a promising step in efforts to promote more dialogue with Beijing. “I think maybe through dialogue we can better understand what their broader objectives are. I think that’s one of the most encouraging things about the visit we had last week,” he said. afp

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 05 Nov 2009 23:33

Hari garu: Thanks for the gem. That guy is the current Governor of Tokyo since 1999. He is considered to be right extreme - enough to earn controversies and not be considered to be PM material. Ahh....thanks for adding one more dot to the picture.

This is what Ishihara said recently:

"Prime Minister (Yukio) Hatoyama's speech was much better than Obama's, whose speech seemed to be just for granted whereas Mr. Hatoyama's speech had substance," Ishihara said.

I see Hatoyama and Okada having nationalistic stream in them too. I thought this whole drama of rhetoric would collapse when the going gets tough for Japan. Nationalistic pieces are moving up in the Japan's political arena. Interesting times ahead.

thanks again.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 06 Nov 2009 07:32

Most welcome. You early move to watch Japan may prove prescient, perhaps. "brf - where tomorrow comes today", wasn't it?

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 06 Nov 2009 18:18

CIA agent spills the beans on Italian Court convictions for illegal "rendition" kidnapping.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 15755.html

We broke the law, admits CIA agent convicted of rendition

By David Usborne, US Editor
Friday, 6 November 2009
Sabrina deSousa and 22 others were convicted by a Milan court

One of the Americans convicted in absentia by an Italian court for her part in the 2003 abduction of a Muslim cleric by CIA operatives has acknowledged they "broke the law" and complained she was given insufficient protection by her superiors in Washington.

Sabrina deSousa, employed in the US consulate offices in Milan at the time of the abduction, made clear in an interview with ABC News that she was disgruntled that she and the other 22 Americans who were convicted by a Milan court on Wednesday had been left to fend for themselves by their country.

Ms deSousa, who has not explicitly said she was working for the CIA, was sentenced to five years by the judge in the case. Indeed on the day that the cleric, known as Abu Omar, was taken from the street and whisked first to Germany and thereafter to Egypt, she was out of the city on a skiing break.

The longest sentence, of eight years, was given to the former Milan CIA station chief, Robert Seldon Lady. There seems little likelihood that the convicted Americans will serve their terms, not least because Italy has declined to seek their extradition from the US, partly in the interest of US-Italian relations. It is probably true, however, that the 22 will always run the risk of arrest if they leave the US territory.

Saying she felt "abandoned and betrayed" as the trial unfolded over three years, Ms deSousa said "everything I did was approved by Washington... and we are paying for the mistakes right now, whoever authorised this."

That so many former and current CIA operatives should have been dragged through a foreign court has begun to rankle Capitol Hill. "I think these people have been hung out to dry," complained Republican congressman Pete Hoekstra of the House Intelligence Committee. "They're taking the fall for a decision that was made by their superiors." The CIA will not comment on the case, which is seen as a rebuke to the administration of George W Bush.

In an interview earlier this year with an Italian newspaper, Mr Lady was candid about the seizure of the cleric. "Of course it was an illegal operation," the newspaper quoted him. "But that's our job. We're at war against terrorism".

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 06 Nov 2009 20:44

India is voting in favor of the Gladstone Report.
OIC has never supported India in any forum

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Nov 2009 21:14

West will not digest a rising India: Global expert

Updated on Thursday, November 05, 2009, 22:56 IST Tags:China, West, War

Mysore: A noted global health expert has warned that the West might not like the rise of Asia -- India and China -- in the coming decades that would shift position of power, and feared the possibility of war.

At the first-ever TED conference in India at Infosys campus here, Hans Rosling, a professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, predicted that the two countries would match the US and UK in terms of average income of the people in the year 2048. He made the prediction citing the ''conventional graph" that he prepared tracing events from 1850, particularly in India and China.

"Western world will not continue to dominate the world forever", he said, adding, Asia would really gain dominant position as the leading power of the world.

TED is a small non-profit organisation devoted to "Ideas Worth Spreading". It started as a four-day conference in California 25 years ago.

"I am not worried not so much about inequities (in India and China)", he said. "What I am really worried about is war".

Will rich countries accept a completely changed world economy and shift of power back to Asia, Rosling, who had also developed a trend-revealing software "Gapminder", asked. Will Asia be in a position to handle that change -- new position of being in charge of might and governance of the world?.

Asked if India would indeed match the US and UK in terms of income of people in 2048, Rosling said: "It's possible; it's also probable. But it's far from certain". It requires a government which makes right decisions, he said.

Rosling also said the fact that India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is from a "small minority" (Sikh community) is "quite impressive" for the world. The way India could make diversity its strength is "quite stimulating" to the rest of the world.

Talking about health parameters, he praised Kerala. "Kerala matches the US in health", he said, adding, Washington DC is not as healthy as Kerala. Kerala has an opportunity to "fix" health system in the US, he said, in a lighter vein.

He also talked about the downsides in India and China.

India has 'enormous problems and enormous potential', he observed, adding, keeping the country together is "very challenging".

Investment in public health needs to be enhanced in states such as Uttar Pradesh. While Shanghai is "healthier" than the US, rural China still needs to catch up. Inequities are "big obstacles" for the two countries. Bringing the entire population to growth and prosperity is a challenge. India and China needs to invest more in health, education, infrastructure and electricity, Rosling said.

Bureau Report

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 06 Nov 2009 21:15

^^^
ha ha...

BRF gurus have been seeing the above for eons.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 06 Nov 2009 21:26

http://www.voanews.com/english/NewsAnal ... -voa12.cfm

“It was the happiest moment in German history,” said Matthias Rueb, Washington bureau chief of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. At the same time, however, he described his initial reaction to the events of 9 November 1989 when the Wall fell as overly optimistic. “But this optimism faded quite quickly, and I realized that it takes a generation to overcome not only this outer – but especially inner – division. There is still this wall in the head, die Mauer im Kopf – a lot of quarreling going on between East Germany and West Germany,” Rueb explained.

Whatever the difficulties of political transition in Central and Eastern Europe, 1989 can still be considered as the annus mirabilis, or year of miracles, argues Rueb. “It was a miracle that it happened suddenly and, with the exception of Romania, peacefully.” In that sense, the feeling that something miraculous was happening is not much different than it was 20 years ago, he said.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, speaking before the U.S. Congress this week, thanked the American people for their support for German reunification. A former citizen of the German Democratic Republic in the East, Chancellor Merkel called on the United States to work with Germany to overcome what she called the “walls of the 21st century” – those areas that continue to divide people in the world, whether on climate change, cooperation in combating terrorism, economic matters, or politics.

“Actually Russia’s last Soviet General-Secretary [Mikhail Gorbachev] and first and last Soviet President was the liberator,” said Lipman. “He was the man who facilitated the liberation of Central and Eastern Europe.

Berlin as a Model for Revolutions Elsewhere

“It may be that what happened in 1989 has established a new model of revolution,” said British historian Timothy Garton Ash, author of The Magic Lantern: The Revolution of ’89 Witnessed in Warsaw, Budapest, Berlin, and Prague.

Ash argues this “new” model of revolution supplanted the French Revolution model, one that was violent, utopian, and class-based. “The 1989 model in contrast was non-violent, anti-utopian, not based on one class, but on attempting to build the broadest possible social coalition,” he told an audience a few weeks ago at the Brookings Institution in Washington. “The symbol of 1789 was the guillotine; the symbol of 1989 is a roundtable where you negotiate.”

“The international media often play a critical role these events today,” Ash said. Certainly, authoritarian regimes in Iran, Russia, Belarus, and China have identified “velvet revolutions” as a “Western subversive plot” and a threat to their power. “The West has not created these events, said Ash. “But in every case – as in Central and Eastern Europe 20 years ago – it is people on the ground who have made these things happen.”

Velvet revolutions can only succeed when rulers and their gunmen lose the will to stay on at all costs. Otherwise it looks like Tiananmen square. Its not much a contest between tanks and students.

The other thing is that the opposition leadership, particularly in Czechoslovakia and Poland had years to develop their ideas and their reputation. Their willingness to go to prison rather than flee in to exile abroad was crucial. That willingness to suffer for the cause gave them moral authority to their people and was something of an inspiration.

Iran today is a lot like Poland in 1981, with the Green movement similar to Solidarity. Unable to hold the street against the tanks and truncheons, but with a leadership that's winning far more popular respect than the government for its plain speaking and courting of arrest.

SriniY · Post by **SriniY** » 09 Nov 2009 10:44

http://www.ted.com/talks/parag_khanna_m ... tries.html

about the talk : Many people think the lines on the map no longer matter, but Parag Khanna says they do. Using maps of the past and present, he explains the root causes of border conflicts worldwide and proposes simple yet cunning solutions for each.

Interesting viewpoint on geo-politics, though I donot agree with his conclusions or solutions. Surprisingly does not talk about India

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 09 Nov 2009 13:33

SriniY wrote:http://www.ted.com/talks/parag_khanna_m ... tries.html

Interesting viewpoint on geo-politics, though I donot agree with his conclusions or solutions. Surprisingly does not talk about India

He seemed to have been coached and he does not have that deep knowledge of the cultures and history of the areas he is talking about

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 09 Nov 2009 19:21

Chevez warns of War with (US supported) Colombia.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... 909264.ece

Hugo Chavez tells Venezuela troops to 'prepare for war' with ColombiaTimes Online

President Chavez is upset at a military bases deal between the US and Colombia
Venezuela’s President Hugo Chávez yesterday ordered the country’s military to prepare for a possible armed conflict with Colombia, saying soldiers should be ready if the United States attempts to provoke a war between the South American neighbours.

Mr Chávez said Venezuela could end up going to war with Colombia as tensions between them rise, and he warned that if a conflict broke out “it could extend throughout the whole continent”.

“The best way to avoid war is preparing for it,” Mr Chávez told military officers during his weekly television and radio programme. Venezuela's socialist leader has also cited a recent deal between Bogota and Washington giving US troops greater access to military bases as a threat to regional stability.

The Government of Colombian President Álvaro Uribe Vélez rejected what it called “threats of war from Venezuela's government”, saying that it would protest at Mr Chávez's comments to the Organization of American States and the UN Security Council.

Chavez threatens to cut ties with Colombia
Obama shakes hands with Hugo Chavez
“Colombia never has, and never will, make an act of war,” said government spokesman Cesar Mauricio Velasquez.

Colombian and US officials have repeatedly said that Venezuela should not be concerned about the base deal as it was aimed exclusively at boosting the fight against drug traffickers and insurgents in Colombia, which is a major cocaine producing country struggling with a decades-old internal conflict.

Tensions along the Venezuela-Colombia border have been exacerbated in recent weeks by a series of shootings and killings. Four men on motorcycles shot and killed two Venezuelan National Guard troops at a checkpoint near the border in Venezuela's western Tachira state last week, prompting the Government to temporarily close some border crossings.

Last month, the Venezuelan authorities arrested at least ten people in Tachira alleging involvement in paramilitary groups. The bullet-ridden bodies of 11 men, nine of them Colombians, were also found last month in Tachira after they were abducted from a soccer field. The violence prompted Venezuela to send 15,000 soldiers to the border with Colombia on Thursday. Officials said that the build-up was necessary to increase security along the border.

Elsa Cardoso, a professor of international relations at the Central University of Venezuela, suggested that Mr Chávez's heated rhetoric — coupled with the recent military deployments — were aimed at turning the public's attention away from pressing domestic problems ranging from rampant crime to electricity and water rationing. “He's sending up a smoke screen, a distraction,” she said.

Colombian rebels have often used Venezuela's border region as a haven to resupply and treat their wounded in recent years, creating friction with Colombia's US-allied government.

Mr Chávez — a former army paratrooper who during more than a decade in power has repeatedly accused Washington of seeking to topple him to seize Venezuela's oil reserves — warned President Barack Obama of using his alliance with President Uribe to mount an offensive against Venezuela.

“The empire is more threatening than ever,” Mr Chávez said, referring to the US government. “Don't make a mistake, Mr Obama, by ordering an attack against Venezuela by way of Colombia.”

Venezuelan opposition leader Julio Borges urged Mr Chávez to hold talks with Colombian officials to ease the tensions. “Working together is only way to efficiently confront this problem, to finally end the permanent threat from illegal groups such as paramilitaries and guerrillas,” Mr Borges said.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Nov 2009 23:44

Op-Ed in Pioneer, 9 Nov 2009

OPED | Monday, November 9, 2009 | Email | Print |

Chickens of chicanery

Premen Addy

The Anglo-American alliance allowed Islamism to strike root during the Cold War as this served its purpose. Islamists from around the world found a safe haven in London and Britain didn’t care what they did abroad. The chickens of British chicanery are now coming home to roost

Dreams of the imperial past have an abiding resonance as the present nightmare shows little sign of loosening its clammy grip. The British public travelled down memory lane yet again in the company of a BBC television film of World War II, when Winston Churchill withstood the trials and tribulations of its darkest hours to emerge triumphant in the sunlit victory. It was something to savour amid the depressing figures of the country’s continuing economic downturn and the rising toll of the British dead and wounded in Afghanistan that drips tragedy in the style of Chinese water torture.

Five British soldiers were killed recently by a member of an Afghan Army unit with whom they were billeted in a training exercise. The assassin disappeared into the night, leaving British officers to sort out the mystery: Was he a Taliban agent or simply a disaffected human settling a personal score? Vendettas, after all, have been the staple of Afghan life through the centuries of stony sleep.

Mr Kim Howells, a former Labour Minister at the Foreign Office, has called for an immediate British withdrawal from Afghanistan and for investing much of the money saved in domestic surveillance of potential terrorists at home. It was a reflexive reaction, no doubt, but it does reflect the growing public disenchantment with military adventures in distant parts. The slippery slope began with the UK’s enthusiastic participation in the 78-day Nato bombing of Serbia leading to the break-up of Yugoslavia in the 1990s. Labelled a ‘humanitarian’ endeavour, it opened the gates of the hell that is today Iraq and Afghanistan. The velvet glove of pious democratic intent concealed the cloven hoof of the imperial predator.

Returning to the terrorist danger within Britain’s shores, Whitehall descended to a Bertie Wooster-type caper when it drafted a Treasury official, one Azad Ali, to join its counter-insurgency panel to advise Mr Keir Starmar, the Director of Public Prosecutions, on cases involving Muslim suspects with extremist leanings. It wasn’t as if the man was a closet jihadi. He operated in the open, his blog praised the spiritual head of Al Qaeda and denied that the 26/11 Mumbai attack, which claimed 173 lives, was an act of terrorism.

The appointment of a man such as this to help guide policy on terrorist prosecutions has alarmed some of Mr Starmar’s senior legal colleagues. Quite so. They are clearly not in the business of making an ass of the law. This lunacy is surely rooted in history. Islamism was for long a hand-maiden of empire and an Anglo-American ploy in the Cold War. There is every likelihood that, in the closing decades of the 20th century Islamist groups from around the world were permitted to hibernate in the safe haven of London courtesy the nation’s great and good provided they kept the peace. What they did abroad was permissible free enterprise.

Small wonder that Mr Charles Pasqua, a senior French Minister at the time, dubbed London ‘Londonistan’. He had a point. But the chickens have come home to roost in Britain’s Time of Trouble. Throwing money at Pakistan or covering up for its errant rulers with questionable Scotland Yard autopsies into the death of the country’s cricket coach Bob Woolmer and the assassination of its leading Opposition politician Benazir Bhutto offers no respite. The murderous show goes on.

The setting is a revolving stage of complementary narratives. On the eve of British Foreign Secretary David Miliband’s visit to Russia — the two sides last had a civil exchange some five years ago — Mr Tony Brenton, Britain’s former Ambassador in Moscow, dwelt on “Five ways Britain can get the most from Russia.” While showing some understanding of the Yeltsin purgatory in the 1990s and the restoration of Russian fortunes under Mr Vladimir Putin, Mr Trenton sought salvation in the battered mantras of his sainted Foreign Office: “We should not, with our more pusillanimous European partners (read Germany principally and France), be ready to turn a blind eye to bad behaviour....we should make it clear when Russian external behaviour becomes unacceptable..(like)..the unilateral Russian recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia....To let such behaviour pass is simply to invite more of the same. If we are clear where the limits are, we strengthen the hand of those inside Russia who argue that it should observe international norms more carefully.” He had no recollection of Mr Tony Blair’s warlike search for Saddam Hussein’s elusive “weapons of mass destruction.” Mr Brenton tone echoed Lord Curzon at his hectoring best with the Nawab of Bhopal in the halcyon days of the Raj.

Mr Brenton’s ‘pusillanimous’ Germans, united from east to west and north to south, are Russia’s partners and will be the richer and more secure for it. Others in the EU are likely consult their national interests and follow suit. John Bull, like a beached whale, will splash and struggle in the shallows of the past; like the French Bourbons, learning nothing and forgetting nothing.

And so Foreign Secretary David Miliband arrived in Moscow for talks with his Russian counterpart, Mr Sergei Lavrov. They were photographed at their Press conference, the Moscow chill writ large on their faces. Time to get real.

I did. In Patrick Tyler’s absorbing title A Great Wall, Six Presidents and China: An Investigative History, I revisited Mrs Indira Gandhi’s finest hours in December 1971 as she faced down the US and China during India’s war with Yahya Khan’s Pakistan. Time was when Mr Henry Kissinger suggested slyly to Huang Hua, Beijing’s UN representative, that China open a front against India to draw off pressure from their common client, Pakistan. Any such move would be sympathetically received by the Nixon Administration, since China’s own survival was at stake in the crisis, he said. Ships from the Seventh Fleet would be at hand in the waters off the Indian coast. China balked, with Soviet forces massed on its border, so Mr Huang informed his US interlocutors that Beijing had decided to work for a diplomatic solution at the UN.

Mr Tyler concludes: “The episode was a humiliation for Nixon and Kissinger... Nixon and Kissinger were left like brides at the altar waiting for China to act. When a cease-fire took effect, West Pakistan’s Army limped home. East Pakistan emerged as independent Bangladesh, and India’s hegemony over South Asia was significantly enhanced.

“If anyone besides Gandhi was the winner in this regional power struggle, it was Brezhnev... (who) could argue that his investment in the military buildup along China’s northern border had paid off by preventing Mao from acting against India.”

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 10 Nov 2009 10:34

Article by Suman Bery on India's economic place in Asia.

India in Asia

How far has the global crisis altered India's role in Asia?

Of particular interest to me was the prominent role accorded to the Indian economy in the conference proceedings and papers. Rakesh Mohan, currently a visiting professor at Stanford, chaired the entire first morning and had the privilege of introducing Chairman Bernanke. The academic papers similarly gave India central prominence in their discussions of emerging Asia.
Even as recently as five years ago, India would not necessarily have been included in this group. The shift in attitudes reflects several years of fast Indian growth, and the expectation that the economy will recover quickly following the crisis. I also sensed considerable respect for the management of the Indian economy, both in the run-up to the crisis and in its aftermath. While central banks from throughout Asia were present, the absence of any Chinese participation was striking.

Essentially if India performs economically well, it is considered part of Asia (which it is regardless).

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 10 Nov 2009 10:56

http://www.business-standard.com/india/ ... ia/375886/

URL link to Suman Bery's article posted above

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 10 Nov 2009 22:26

Since it touches religion, please do not reply or comment on this. I just thought it was important for BRFers to see.
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2008/02/turkey-hadith-a.html

Significantly, the "Ankara School" of theologians working on the new Hadith have been using Western critical techniques and philosophy.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 12 Nov 2009 04:18

When The Wall Fell, Asia Rose
teaser

As a result, dysfunctional or failing states suddenly emerged in the 1990s, constituting a threat to regional and international security by becoming home to transnational pirates (Somalia) or transnational terrorists (Pakistan and Afghanistan), or by their defiance of global norms (North Korea and Iran). Asia has suffered more casualties from the rise of international terrorism than any other region.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 12 Nov 2009 10:58

SwamyG wrote:When The Wall Fell, Asia Rose
teaser
As a result, dysfunctional or failing states suddenly emerged in the 1990s, constituting a threat to regional and international security by becoming home to transnational pirates (Somalia) or transnational terrorists (Pakistan and Afghanistan), or by their defiance of global norms (North Korea and Iran). Asia has suffered more casualties from the rise of international terrorism than any other region.

And yet Germany's ties to Europe are changing as well:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/art ... QD9BT0KTG0

As we can see, now Germany has much more incentive to try out more 'Ostpolitik' and pursue a 'Look East' policy towards Russia as a lever in its relations with the rest of Europe.

Just as the Americans are finding their traditionally submissive Japanese partners are giving them more retorts than in the past, likewise the Europeans are finding that the Germans too are fed up with being docile lambs to always be shoved around.
The Germans now feel free to seek advantages over others through relations with Russia, and this has the Atlanticists worried. Uptil now, the Atlanticists have been trying to stare down Russia, but now they are caught off guard by Germany's blow from behind, asking "Et tu, Berlin?"

I think this new pincer development is very important for India. If the Atlanticists are unprepared for how to deal with a threat from Germany's side, then this puts them in a quandary - even disarray.

Germany's power is not small - it is the most powerful economy in Europe, and the heart of EU economic muscle. Read this:

Earlier this year, German industrial conglomerate giant Siemens pulled out of a nuclear power plant joint venture with France's Areva and then turned around to engage in talks on forming a nuclear energy venture with Russia's Rosatom. Siemens built the new high-speed train between Moscow and St. Petersburg for a line expected to open later this year.

Meanwhile, Obama's meddlers have tried to foil a German-Russian acquisition of Opel, now causing Germany to give GM the cold shoulder:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8355926.stm

Maybe Indians should try to rush in to acquire some assets, if GM has to make some decisions under duress.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 12 Nov 2009 23:19

Nippon, here I come.
1. PM Hatoyama says Japan looking to Asia for future growth

Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama said Japan needs to look to Asia, instead of the US, for future economic growth.

{Ah, I have suspecting this for a long time, they realize which side of the bread is buttered}
This interview is good, so I quote it in full. Of course he could be always giving the audience what it wants...but ishtill.

Speaking in an interview with Channel NewsAsia's Japan Bureau Chief Michiyo Ishida, Mr Hatoyama said Japan should rely less on exports and more on domestic demand to fuel its economy.

He said: "If I may criticise past developments, I'd say there's been an over-reliance on exports. We don't have natural resources, hence we turn to manufacturing for exports and our growth is based on that. But now, we need to shift to domestic demand.

"But having said that, this country can't grow on domestic demand alone. Japan has focused on trade with the US. We're now shifting towards Asia. Asian economies will grow, and Japan will cooperate with them. Japan will transform the growth of Asia into its own energy. It's important to create a win-win relationship."

On China overtaking Japan as the world's second largest economy, the Japanese PM said: "It's natural when we consider the size of China's population. There's no need to feel pessimistic about it. Rather, I'm optimistic about Japan. We should run an economy that suits our size.

"And even more than before, I want to create a Japan that's politically more outspoken, with our voice in an international environment. The Japan-US alliance is no doubt a corner stone of Japan's diplomacy - there's no question about the need to maintain that."

Mr Hatoyama is also expected to push climate change issues when he attend the APEC Summit in Singapore this weekend.

He said: "I've proposed to cut carbon gas emission from the 1990 level by 25 per cent by 2020. I believe this is something that APEC economies should address. And to help resolve the issue, I'll like to work with APEC for a successful COP 15 in Copenhagen. I'm urging everyone to cooperate.

"I think it's also a business opportunity. I want to request for a creation of a system in which APEC and Japan can work together in order to resolve this major issue." - CNA /ls

2. Japan keen on free trade zone {In other words, it wants to exploit that area}

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 12 Nov 2009 23:26

http://finance.yahoo.com/career-work/ar ... leadership

The World's Most Powerful People 2009
by Michael Noer and Nicole Perlroth
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
provided by

The 67 heads of state, criminals, financiers and philanthropists who really run the world.

"I love power. But it is as an artist that I love it. I love it as a musician loves his violin, to draw out its sounds and chords and harmonies." — Napoleon Bonaparte

Power has been called many things. The ultimate aphrodisiac. An absolute corrupter. A mistress. A violin. But its true nature remains elusive. After all, a head of state wields a very different sort of power than a religious figure. Can one really compare the influence of a journalist to that of a terrorist? And is power unexercised power at all?

More at Forbes.com:

In Pictures: The World's Most Powerful People

Interpol Picks The World's Seven Most Infamous Criminals

Lance Armstrong Picks the Seven Most Powerful People in Sports
In compiling our first ranking of the World's Most Powerful People we wrestled with these questions — and many more — before deciding to define power in four dimensions. First, we asked, does the person have influence over lots of other people? Pope Benedict XVI, ranked 11th on our list, is the spiritual leader of more than a billion souls, or about one-sixth of the world's population, while Wal-Mart CEO Mike Duke (No. is the largest private-sector employer in the United States.

Then we assessed the financial resources controlled by these individuals. Are they relatively large compared with their peers'? For heads of state we used GDP, while for CEOs, we looked at a composite ranking of market capitalization, profits, assets and revenues as reflected on our annual ranking of the World's 2000 Largest Companies. In certain instances, like New York Times Executive Editor Bill Keller (No. 51), we judged the resources at his disposal compared with others in the industry. For billionaires, like Bill Gates (No. 10), net worth was also a factor.

Next we determined if they are powerful in multiple spheres. There are only 67 slots on our list — one for every 100 million people on the planet — so being powerful in just one area is not enough to guarantee a spot. Our picks project their influence in myriad ways. Take Italy's colorful prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi (No. 12) who is a politician, a media monopolist and owner of soccer powerhouse A.C. Milan, or Oprah Winfrey (No. 45) who can manufacture a best-seller and an American President.

Lastly, we insisted that our choices actively use their power. Ingvar Kamprad, the 83-year-old entrepreneur behind Ikea and the richest man in Europe, was an early candidate for this list, but was excluded because he doesn't exercise his power. On the other hand, Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin (No. 3) scored points because he likes to throw his weight around by jailing oligarchs, invading neighboring countries and periodically cutting off Western Europe's supply of natural gas.

To calculate the final rankings, five Forbes senior editors ranked all of our candidates in each of these four dimensions of power. Those individual rankings were averaged into a composite score, which determined who placed above (or below) whom.

U.S. President Barack Obama emerged, unanimously, as the world's most powerful person, and by a wide margin. But there were a number of surprises. Former President George W. Bush didn't come close to making the final cut, while his predecessor in the Oval Office, Bill Clinton, ranks 31st, ahead of a number of sitting heads of government. Apple's Steve Jobs easily made the list, while Arnold Schwarzenegger, the movie star governor of California (alone, the world's fifth largest economy) did not.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 12 Nov 2009 23:27

Sanjay M: Thanks for the very important development. So Germany is moving towards Russia. Japan is moving towards China. Japan is though trying to diversify its risk and is looking through out Asia. In order to be recognizable by China, Japan has to have influence in other Asian countries.

As the global powers are moving and reshaping themselves; India needs to play its game well.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 12 Nov 2009 23:41

From Acharya's post:

Lastly, we insisted that our choices actively use their power. Ingvar Kamprad, the 83-year-old entrepreneur behind Ikea and the richest man in Europe, was an early candidate for this list, but was excluded because he doesn't exercise his power. On the other hand, Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin (No. 3) scored points because he likes to throw his weight around by jailing oligarchs, invading neighboring countries and periodically cutting off Western Europe's supply of natural gas.

That is one area India should think about more.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 13 Nov 2009 00:17

Re. Russo-German ties;

The high point of Russo-German ties was Schroeder's term as Chancellor - his opposition to the war in Iraq, combined with Russia's oil and gas led growth led him to see the relationship with Russia as both strategic (in the geopolitical sense) as well as economic. That is why he's a paid employee of Gazprom in his retirement.

Angela Merkel's views are much more nuanced - she continues to encourage the German-Russian economic relationship, but is far less enthusiastic about a geopolitical alignment with Russia in its current state. As an East German, her memories of Russia are far from happy.

Although Merkel's Germany for example is not in favour of NATO expansion, it has continued the traditional German support for Kosovo, and continues to refuse to recognise the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. There are also real differences in the way that Germany and Russia see the Iranian nuclear issue.

Germany to Russia is a little bit like America to the Gulf. Germany pumps a *lot* of money in to Russia through energy purchases, and is very keen to have as much of it as possible recycled by making sure that a) Russia buys German, and b) Germany owns a piece of Russia. Germany will maintain ties at whatever level is required to keep that rolling on.

As I've said here before, European-Russian economic integration is inevitable - Russia is technology hungry, and Europe is energy hungry. Europe needs labour, Russia needs more jobs and higher income levels for its people.

Germany is just the first to really seriously focus on the economic opportunities, although Italy and France would like to catch up. Russia's steadily decaying military power and demographics is ultimately what makes the results of this tie up non-threatening to the EU.

Of course, NATO will remain a hedge bet for the Europeans in case Russia's military power revives. If Russia continues to transition from a military power to an economic one, it is likely that the trans-Atlantic alliance will weaken - the European need for America as a balancing power will diminish.

However, the competition between Russia and the EU (not NATO) for influence in the former Soviet republics in the Slavic belt (Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova) and the South Caucausus (Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia) is far from over. The 'common spaces' agreement is meant to limit friction without ceding ground. This itself a major step back for Russia, which used to argue for its right to maintain an exclusive sphere of influence.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 13 Nov 2009 02:45

Johann wrote: As I've said here before, European-Russian economic integration is inevitable - Russia is technology hungry, and Europe is energy hungry. Europe needs labour, Russia needs more jobs and higher income levels for its people.

Agreed...So we're looking at the future in 1930s....Soviet Oil and Fodder for German tanks. This is why to look into the future you have understand the past. Time always moves in a circle.