Deterrence

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 01 Nov 2009 07:30

The basis of deterrence is an awareness and fear of what nuclear weapons can do. If Indians know what can happen to them they will be deterred from starting nuclear war that can invite nuclear attack on them. But that will not deter potential attackers. Indians are ignorant and MV Ramana's piece above only educates Indians. It will only give happiness to Pakis and Chinese. I think MV Ramana's piece is very good and very scholarly but it only says "I am Indian and I am sh1tting brix". That may be very "civilized" but for deterrence you need to make your attackers think about things that would make them sh1t brix.

Therefore I believe it is necessary to write scenarios of Indian nuclear attack on Islamabad/Rawalpindi and say Beijing or Shanghai so that the scenarios exist for ready reference. People in Pakistan too need to know what nuclear weapons do so that they begin to think about what can happen.

Maybe I will start working on some MV Ramana like scenario in Islamabad

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 01 Nov 2009 07:37

Isn't the quote by Clinton - in the book to come out - sufficient to convince the Pakis?

I feel that Pakis will be taken care of. The US should be more concerned and keep them occupied.

Besides MVR is biased.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 01 Nov 2009 07:40

NRao wrote:Isn't the quote by Clinton - in the book to come out - sufficient to convince the Pakis?

Well no harm in "writing fiction" is there?

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 01 Nov 2009 07:52

Well no harm in "writing fiction" is there?

True.

You are lucky. Pakis have already reached that stage and that part of the script is already there.

surinder · Post by **surinder** » 01 Nov 2009 12:25

Not only do we need very clear & accurate scenarios of Nuclear weapons on Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore & Karachi, & Beijing & Shanghai. But we also need one for Mecca & Medina. How many weapons are needed, what will those many weapons do, will it really render the place "un-pilgrimageable" ? For how long?

The so-called Samson option should be the other corner of our deterrence.

JwalaMukhi · Post by **JwalaMukhi** » 01 Nov 2009 13:30

Johann wrote: I can't quite follow your argument.
Deterrence failure and/or state collapse (and there is a link between the two) isn't something that exclusively concerns the Americans.
The smaller the arsenal, the smaller that price.
It is the citizens and closest neighbours of unstable states that always pay the heaviest price. However US engagement in both regions means that it would still likely suffer casualties on a scale that would dwarf 9/11.
The country that played the largest role in directly supporting the nuclear ambitions of both these states - the PRC - is the one that will pay the least price of those who are affected.

Johann, you already know this, but anyways let me try.
There is some slight modification needed to what you have stated.

If deterrence fails with North Korea, it is South Korea, the US and Japan will pay in that order.
If deterrence fails with Pakistan, it is India and the US that will pay, again in order.

If deterrence fails with North Korea, it is South Korea, the western interests and Japan will pay in that order.

If deterrence fails with Pakistan, it is India and the Western interests that will pay, again in order.
US is threatened only by a wild card, which is JDAM (Jihadi detonated Ammunition). Repeat US is not threatened because deterrence fails with North Korea or Pakistan directly, but only as consequence of any failure in the nuclear arena anywhere will stress deterrence everywhere.

This is the era of shadow boxings. Proxy wars are always face saving devices and are utilized, hence even if the outcome of proxywar does not go as intended; in future it allows the warring parties to kiss and make up.

North Korea (proxy of china) is being used by China in the sparring with the western interests. The relationship between Western interests (read US) and China is complicated. If China loses control of North Korea it means it would revert to natural state, aka would merge with South Korea and not threaten western interests. OTOH, if China ensures South Korea backs down, it just brought the whole of Korea under its influence. Inspite of this well known shadow boxing, US treats North Korea as separate from China and China is also way too happy for it to be such in external dealings. So, what exactly is the deterrence equation here. It boils down to deterrence between Western interests and Chinese interests that is being played out using North Korea (proxy of china).

Bakistan (proxy of western interests) is currently, though shocking and insulting represents western interests. The relationship between Western interests and India is also as complicated. If west loses control of Bakistan it means it would revert to natural state, aka would mean Bakistan would cease to exist and not threaten India's interest. OTOH, if west ensures India backs down (including wresting Kashmir), it just brought a larger area of the subcontinent under west's influence. Inspite of this well known shadow boxing, India treats Bakistan as separate from Western interests (chinese interest is not mentioned to keep it simple) and west is also way too happy for it to be such in external dealings. So what exactly is the deterrence equation here. It boils down to deterrence between western interests and Indian interests that is being played out using Bakistan (proxy of western interests).

Bakistan (proxy of western interests) is a little more complex than North Korea. While chinese can expect N.Korea to not go rogue and proliferate against chinese interests, the west does not have that luxury with respect to Bakistan. Bakistan will proliferate to all the ummah as and when necessary. Hence,the quandry as to how to contain the fallout that threatens western interests. (Isarel is in special place in this threat scenario and hence will and should have more interest in it. ) It does not stop there, there is a wild card of Jihadis who actually threaten not only western interests, but pose a direct threat to US. So, US would work its way to ensure that the threat to it is minimized first, followed by minimization of the threat to western interests in that order. In this process, if kashmir gets ripped, or a small price of exposing other western interests, it would be done.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 01 Nov 2009 20:23

Far before India thinks in terms of nukes, she must take care of internal issues. This Maoist disaster has been festering for some 4 decades. Nukes will have value only if there is a vibrant India. Look at TSP. Why even think of a war with TSP if she is imploding?

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 01 Nov 2009 20:28

Nov 1, 2009 :: Chinese parts in IAF encryption devices prompt security probe

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Nov 2009 00:42

Perhaps OT, but ............................ The Chinese are coming, the Chinese are coming .............

Long March

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Nov 2009 07:02

csharma wrote:Cross posting from US China India thread.

IPCS discussion on India China and US. This was held in may 2007.

http://www.ipcs.org/pdf_file/issue/5146 ... _May07.pdf

Is war with China unthinkable? Will such an assumption not weaken the
Indian defense posture? Secondly, borders have been softened but no
borders have been redrawn. India should not drop its deterrence.

While a war with China is unthinkable in the political and strategic sense,
in a purely military view, China should continue to define Indian military
capabilities. One reason that war is unthinkable is that India today
possesses an effective deterrent capability against China. This does not
mean that India will not prepare its defenses. Indian presence is strong on
the border and it has acquired strategic strength with its nuclear
programme. Moreover, the Chinese believe that one should despise the
enemy strategically and respect him tactically. The Chinese are aware of
the risks involved in attacking the Indian border. Therefore, there is no
contradiction in asserting that war is unthinkable and still maintaining
guard.
War between India and China is unthinkable because, in the context of
globalization, the possibility of conflict is made absolutely remote. Neither
India nor China’s national interests would be furthered as a consequence
of war. Maintaining military deterrent capability is a means to maintain
peace.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 02 Nov 2009 18:57

Having a very good commercial relationship with lots of trade going on bilaterally.. Can this also be a Deterrence?

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Nov 2009 20:35

It could contribute - at a particular point in time.

However, if at some other point in time the urge (as an example) to take Tawang is greater than the loss of whatever is termed as "commercial relationship", then at that point in time that "deterrence" is lost. (Of course, whatever other consequences there are WRT "taking Tawang" are still on the table.)

But a nuclear deterrence could still be in place - so it (hopefully) will not escalate to a nuclear stage.

There is the possibility that a window may open for "taking Tawang" and IF china does not move that window could close without anything happening. This "window" could be a very, very strong Indian armed forces, but for the duration of this "window" a very, very weak political situation. Could be the very opposite, where India has a similar chance.

Deterrence could include anything that the two (or more) actors decide to include in the "equation" - independent of each other. Some parts of that equation are quantifiable, some are not, and over time the proportion of these two would vary. Then there is the fear factor - I think this is common to all equations - but is the most vociferously debated about.

There are one or two US based experts who are justifying the current Indian move to increase armed presence in Arunachal as a counter to an increased Chinese presence in Tibet (NOTHING to do with events along the Indian border)!!

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 03 Nov 2009 05:57

shiv wrote:The basis of deterrence is an awareness and fear of what nuclear weapons can do. If Indians know what can happen to them they will be deterred from starting nuclear war that can invite nuclear attack on them. But that will not deter potential attackers. Indians are ignorant and MV Ramana's piece above only educates Indians. It will only give happiness to Pakis and Chinese. I think MV Ramana's piece is very good and very scholarly but it only says "I am Indian and I am sh1tting brix". That may be very "civilized" but for deterrence you need to make your attackers think about things that would make them sh1t brix.

Therefore I believe it is necessary to write scenarios of Indian nuclear attack on Islamabad/Rawalpindi and say Beijing or Shanghai so that the scenarios exist for ready reference. People in Pakistan too need to know what nuclear weapons do so that they begin to think about what can happen.

Maybe I will start working on some MV Ramana like scenario in Islamabad

Exactly!
Please write it Shiv.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 03 Nov 2009 06:01

surinder wrote:Not only do we need very clear & accurate scenarios of Nuclear weapons on Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore & Karachi, & Beijing & Shanghai. But we also need one for Mecca & Medina. How many weapons are needed, what will those many weapons do, will it really render the place "un-pilgrimageable" ? For how long?

The so-called Samson option should be the other corner of our deterrence.

My thoughts have been so much like this, I have even prepared map of Pakistan + SA just like the one I made of China with juicy targets on page 11 of this thread, just was hesitating to put them up.

Surinder what is Samson option?

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 03 Nov 2009 06:17

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 03 Nov 2009 06:43

NRao wrote:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option

Thanks !

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 03 Nov 2009 07:00

BC :: Oct 29, 2009 :: Insatiable dragon

Brahma Chellaney

Thursday, October 29, 2009 22:48 IST

Although China invaded India in 1962, provoked a bloody clash at Nathu La in 1967 and triggered border skirmishes in 1986-87 by crossing the line of control in Samdurong Chu, this is the first time it has opened pressure points against India all along the Himalayan frontier in peacetime.
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This pressure long predates the Dalai Lama's plans to visit Arunachal Pradesh. Indeed, it gradually has been building up since 2006, largely in reaction to the Indo-US strategic partnership, which was set in motion by the separate unveiling in 2005 of the nuclear deal and defence-framework accord. By muscling up to India, is China aiming to browbeat India or actually fashion an option to wage war?

Prime minister Manmohan Singh and other Indian officials have publicly sought to tamp down military tensions. But in contrast, the Chinese leadership has been mum on the Himalayan border situation even as the bellicose rhetoric in China's state-run media has affected public opinion with 90 per cent of respondents in a Global Times online poll citing India as the No 1 threat to China's security. The Communist Party's official newspaper, the People's Daily, after asking India to consider the costs of "a potential confrontation with China," ran another denunciatory editorial recently on New Delhi's "recklessness and arrogance."

The current situation, in some aspects, parallels the one that prevailed in the run-up to the 1962 attack, which then Chinese premier Zhou En Lai declared was designed "to teach India a lesson."

Whether Beijing actually sets out to teach India "the final lesson" will, of course, depend on several calculations, including India's defence preparedness, domestic factors within China and the availability of a propitious international timing of the type that the Cuban missile crisis provided in 1962. But why should New Delhi repeatedly and gratuitously offer explanations or justifications for the continuing Chinese incursions? If such intrusions are due to differing perceptions about the line of control, let the Chinese say that. But note: Beijing hasn't proffered that excuse.

The issue up to 1962 was Aksai Chin. But having gobbled up Aksai China, an area almost as big as Switzerland, China now claims Arunachal, nearly three times as large as Taiwan, to help widen its annexation of resource-rich Tibet. Since ancient times, the Himalayas have been regarded as India's northern frontiers. But China is laying claim to territories south of the Himalayan watershed. Having lost its outer buffer -- Tibet -- India cannot lose its inner buffer -- the Himalayas -- or else the enemy will arrive in its plains.

Yet, instead of putting the focus on the source of China's claim -- Tibet -- and on Beijing's attempt to territorially enlarge its Tibet annexation to what it calls "southern Tibet" since 2006, India fights shy of gently shining a spotlight on Tibet as the lingering core issue.

Both on strategy and capability, India is found wanting. Unable to define its own game-plan, it plays into China's containment-behind-the-façade-of-engagement strategy by staying put in an unending, barren process of border talks going on since 1981, even though it realises Beijing has no intent to reach a political settlement. Worse still, it agreed in August to let the border talks go off on a tangent and turn into an all-encompassing strategic dialogue, thereby arming Beijing with new leverage to condition a border settlement to the achievement of greater strategic congruence.

Now consider capability: More than 11 years after it gate-crashed the nuclear-weapons club, India conspicuously lacks even a barely minimal deterrent capability against China. Instead of giving topmost priority to building a credible deterrent against China -- possible only through a major augmentation of indigenous nuclear and missile capabilities -- India is focused on the spendthrift import of conventional weapons.

Let's be clear: No amount of conventional arms can effectively deter a nuclear foe, that too an adversary that enjoys an inherent military advantage against India by being positioned on the commanding upper reaches of the Himalayas.

Although China is playing provoker, New Delhi helped create the context to embolden Beijing to up the ante. Can it be forgotten that New Delhi for long has indulged in ritualised happy talk about its relations with Beijing, brushing problems under the rug and hyping the outcome of every bilateral summit?

Even today, as New Delhi stares at the harvest of a mismanagement of relations with China by successive governments that chose propitiation to leverage building, attempts are being made to pull the wool over public eyes by calling the Himalayan border "peaceful". Speaking honestly about a relationship fraught with major problems and lurking dangers is an essential first step to protect India's interests.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 03 Nov 2009 11:30

^
I have not taken the army locations in the above map as I could not get them and it was getting too much congested anyway. So what I have taken is POPULATION, INDUSTRIES AND AIRBASES.
Yellow STARS are = 6 warheads of 25kt each.
Blue STARS are = 3 warheads of 25kt each.
[UNSALTED OF COURSE BECAUSE OF CLOSE PROXIMITY TO US & THERE IS NO HIMALAYAN LIKE CHINA BETWEEN US TO PROTECT].

Above in case of SA I have taken the AIRBASE TARGETS as their AF is going to come helping porkis.
Each Orange Star = 2 warheads of 25kt. One Cobalt and One with Gold 197 isotop.

The whole point of making these maps was to get an idea of number of targets + number of missiles and warheads would be needed. Perhaps it may help if someone writes a scenario.

Special note to Shiv: I have taken the figure of 25kt just to be on the safe side to factor in 50% failure of warheads missiles. Not because I am ahead of curve!

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 03 Nov 2009 15:21

Manish_Sharma wrote:
Special note to Shiv: I have taken the figure of 25kt just to be on the safe side to factor in 50% failure of warheads missiles. Not because I am ahead of curve!

I am taking 50 kt standard. Will post a scenario soon...

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 03 Nov 2009 18:49

Very nice maps with all those blasts marked. Have you tried plotting the wind directions?
Either
(a) the winds are towards India which makes these the Klassic Kalidasa Strategy (KKS)
(b) the winds are towards Russia, Ukraine etc which makes these the Classic Bhasmasura Strategy. (CBS)

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 03 Nov 2009 19:01

shiv wrote:
Manish_Sharma wrote:
Special note to Shiv: I have taken the figure of 25kt just to be on the safe side to factor in 50% failure of warheads missiles. Not because I am ahead of curve!
I am taking 50 kt standard. Will post a scenario soon...

It's a deal!

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 03 Nov 2009 20:06

enqyoob wrote:Very nice maps with all those blasts marked. Have you tried plotting the wind directions?
Either
(a) the winds are towards India which makes these the Klassic Kalidasa Strategy (KKS)
(b) the winds are towards Russia, Ukraine etc which makes these the Classic Bhasmasura Strategy. (CBS)

Enqyoob, since having NFU policy when India uses the above Samson Option some of the nukes would have landed here and the winds won't be ........ mmm........ let's say very fresh and oxygenated!

Although I had'nt thought of Bhasmasura option until you pointed out, if you see the map, so many countries are in the way: Iran, Afganisthan, Tajakistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgisthan & Kazakhastan. Now I don't think the winds will cross all these countries to just harm Russian people. Some of them have produced worst genociders like Tamerlain. Now I am not going to drop the nuclear warheads option 'cause using them on Porkis is going to harm the country of Tamur Lang.

PS: Also I forgot to add 20 warheads for BD. For two reasons 1.) They maybe keeping some arsnel for TSP. 2.) A wounded India will be easy prey for BD to exploit the population ratio situation.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 03 Nov 2009 23:31

edit.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 03 Nov 2009 23:51

enqyoob wrote:Very nice maps with all those blasts marked. Have you tried plotting the wind directions?
Either
(a) the winds are towards India which makes these the Klassic Kalidasa Strategy (KKS)
(b) the winds are towards Russia, Ukraine etc which makes these the Classic Bhasmasura Strategy. (CBS)

Summer or say July is best to make Paki Popcorn.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 04 Nov 2009 00:41

Shiv,

You might find this useful. It has been around for years, originally written for the US DoE and DoD.

http://www.princeton.edu/sgs/publicatio ... s/effects/

and

http://www.fourmilab.ch/bombcalc/ (scroll down for calculator)

Its ghastly good fun to play around with when you factor in things like population density, building codes and wind direction.

As a counterpart to a Rawalpindi-Islamabad attack, you may want to show the effects on a major military installation, typically an air base like Sargodha or Kamra.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 04 Nov 2009 18:39

Thanks Johann - very useful indeed...

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 05 Nov 2009 03:18

FYI:

Gerard wrote:Nuclear deal is India's passport to the world: Bush

"(By signing the deal) the US recognised India's nuclear weapon's programme. It is India's passport to the world," said Bush.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 06 Nov 2009 11:21

Let me write about the effects of a 50 kiloton nuclear bomb on Rawalpindi.

Why Rawalpindi?

After all the net is replete with information about the horrors of a nuclear attack as actually documented in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. In addition, MV Ramana has written a scholarly article on a nuclear attack on Bombay (Mumbai) - so what is the need for yet another fake spare-tool scenario of a nuclear bomb on Rawalpindi?

My rationale is simple and it is based on the relatively ignorant and delusional mind-set of the average educated Pakistani.

Deterrence is a funny beast. If a man has a gun it gives him a feeling of security; He thinks of how the gun will help him and does not concern himself too much about what the gun does to someone else. but if you can tell this man what will happen to him if he tries to use that gun and what he will see and feel if he tries to use his gun, he may then begin to use the little thinking power he may have to wonder whether it is a good idea to use his gun at all. That is what deterrence is all about. This is where MV Ramana's admittedly comprehensive work fails. The scenario of a bomb on Bombay is only good to deter Indians. Reading about it can only give joy to moronic "mine is bigger" Pakis or the "save my face" Chinese. After all I am happy to read about anything that might make my enemy suffer.

So it is important to write and document detailed scenarios of what India's nuclear bombs are planned to perform in Pakistani and Chinese cities, starting with Rawalpindi.

Again. Why Rawalpindi, why not Islamabad?

Take a look at this picture comparing the building density and therefore the population density of Islamabad versus Rawalpindi.

Clearly, Islamabad consists of isolated buildings and a lot of parks. Rawalpindi is dense housing. When you use a nuke you have to plan to cause the maximum pain and must select the most highly populated areas. In any case hitting Islamabd is no use. All the yellow Jernails of the Paki army, fathered by the rapists of Bangladesh of 1971 will be hiding in deep bunkers before they use their first nuke on India, inviting this Indian 50 kiloton bomb on Rawalpindi. By hitting Islamabad - you only hit gardens and trees. I will describe Rawalpindi later.

Why 50 kilotons? 50 kilotons is proven and undisputed Indian capability in warheads that are light enough to be delivered by any and every of the delivery vehicles that India has, and Rawalpindi is within range of all of them, and is certain to get hit the day Pakistan launches any nuclear attack on an Indian entity. It is also small enough to reduce the likelihood of fallout reaching India.

Rawalpindi

Rawalpindi district is huge and consists of many subdivisions such as the Rawal town, Potohar town and others including Murree and Taxila. The total population of Rawalpindi is over 3 million.

The particular area of interest is "Rawal town". The Rawal town area is a densely populated area . It is a roughly triangular area measuring about 30 sq km with a population of about 700,000 - a population density of nearly 25,000 people per sq km. The apex of the triangle juts into Islamabad in the North, while the Eastern boundary includes Islamabad Airport. To the South West of this area lies the Pakistan army GHQ.

The streets of Rawal town are narrow with contiguous lines of poorly built old brick and mortar buildings or newer concrete constructions on either side. Most are two to three stories tall. Typically the first floor has a front balcony or verandah that is enclosed by a decorative (and highly inflammable) wood and glass frontage. Rawalpindi is home to some fabulous open air markets selling everything from food, to silk. The streets in these markets are seething with people, and the street vendors often use a highly inflammable plastic or canvas sheet as a sun shade. Like many cities and towns in the Indian subcontinent - Rawal town is an "outdoors" town because people do not have to remain huddled inside houses to escape from cold. In additions there is the usual component of people who actually live on the streets.

To the South East, several kilometers away lie the posh residencs of the Pakistani RAPE - the Rich Anglophone Paki elite, occupying terraced residences or individual houses with manicured lawns in areas such as the Chaklala and Askari housing schemes, Bahria town and the Defence housing authority. To the North lies Islamabad. Below is a Google Earth image of Rawal town

The X on the map indicates the selected point for a 50 kt nuclear bomb to be exploded at the optimum height. It is worth recalling here that 50 kilotons refers (for the mango man) to 50,000 tons of TNT. This is more than the bomb load carried by 7,000 F-16 aircraft exploding at one time and over one spot. Just in case Paklurks need an education.

A 50 kt bomb exploding causes intense flash of heat that melts ceramic and granite for a radius of about a kilometer below the point of explosion. This is followed by a devastating pressure wave that will destroy all concrete structures for a radius of about 2 km. From 2 to 4 km almost every building is brought down, if not severely damaged. In the central zone - winds of up to 800 kmph follow the blast. Even 4 km way there are winds of 400 kmph blasting glass into small shards and that find their way into people who survive a collapsed building. Even beyond the 4 km zone - people who have faces and other parts of the body exposed to the flash will develop "flash burns". Some will go blind while others will require hospitalization for burns.

In general, when a nuclear bomb explodes over a populated area, the people who are killed immediately are affected both by blast and burns and are closest to the hypocenter or "ground zero" above which the bomb exploded. For a 50 kiloton blast this area extends up to a radius of 2 km from the hypocenter. From 2 to 4 km the blast and burn effects are very severe but not invariably immediately fatal - leaving many people injured but alive. Beyond a 3.5 to 4 km radius a large number of people will have minor injuries and flash burns - of which some of the latter can be severe and ultimately fatal especially without medical attention. The injuries other than flash burns are usually due to glass fragments and collapse of light structures. Many of the injured in this zoen will additionally suffer radiation sickness adding to mortality.

Based on these general facts it is possible to model the effect of a 50 kiloton nuclear weapon about a kilometer above a point "X" in Rawal Town, Rawalpindi at a spot about 0.5 km west of the east-west runway of Islamabad Airport. The figure below depicts two concentric circles of radius 2 km (blue) and 4 km (orange) from the point below the center of the blast.

Within the blue circle lies an area of about 12 sq km, and in the densely populated environs of Rawal town - the area will have a population of about 300,000, many of them exposed on the street. All buildings in this zone will be crushed burying people within them instantly. Exposed people on the street will be vaporised near the hypocenter. Taking a cue from what happened in Hiroshima and Nagasaki - ine can expect an 85 to 90% mortality in this zone with 5-10 percent alive but injured. For the central zone in Rawal town that would mean more than 250,000 dead and perhaps 10 to 15,000 people injured but alive. Rawal town consist of narrow lanes - which will all be blocked by collapsed buildings and the chances of reaching any injured people in time to rescue them and save them is likely to be remote, unless they can themselves walk out.

Outside the blue circle, but withing the orange circle most buildings will be demolished but the chances of being powdered or vaporized instantly are reduced as one goes farther from the center. The decorated wooden frontages of buildings and the sun covers of street vendors, there gas cylinders and lamps will catch fire instantly, and with the blast winds being less severe further away from the center some of these fires will not get snuffed out and will continue to burn. In the Hiroshima/Nagasaki experience, this zone had a mortality of about 25 to 30%. The 38 sq km zone of the orange circle will have more than 400,000 people - who make up the population of Rawal town and other zones around the area. The population density is likely to be smaller over the more posh zones like Askari and Chaklala that fall in this zone but a conservative estimate of 600,000 people is reasonable. A 25 to 30% mortality would leave about 150,000 dead and about 250,000 injured. Of the injured in this zone - many will have severe flash burns and will inevitably die. Others will lie under crushed building debris. Many will have injuries like bullet wounds from flying glass and debris; other will have impact type injuries because they have simply been lifted by an air blast and slammed hard against some surface.

In the zone outside the orange circle Rawalpindi has some densely populated areas and some posh and relatively sparsely populated zones with better constructed houses that may able to withstand the milder blast felt more than 4 or 5 km from the hypocenter. Injuries and deaths in this zone will occur mainly from collapse of light structures, flash burns on exposed skin surfaces, blindness and window glass injuries for people inside homes. These will me most severe just outside the 4 km zone, and reduce as one goes further. In the Japan experience, this zone had a mortality of 1 to 2% and injuries to about 10%. That means - that a million or so people outside the 4 km radius zone will still suffer 20,000 dead and 100,000 injured - though many injuries will be slight.

Counting the cost:

Every city depends, for its survival on a number of "services" that must run 24 hours a day. Each of these services is dependent on thousands upon thousands of people who work to run those services. Foremost among the services required in any city are water, food, sanitation, energy (fuels and electricity) and healthcare.

A disruption in water supply begins to affect a city within one day. Food supply disruption affects people within days. A city may be able to live with poor sanitation, low energy supply and little healthcare for about a week or two after which the city becomes essentially unlivable for most. Even under ordinary circumstances water lines or pumps break down and need repair. Valves need to be turned on and off and water purified and pumped to different areas. Food supplies arrive from outside the city and depend on people to drive the vehicles, load and unload and other people to store, stock and distribute the supplies to retailers and consumers. People need energy to cook and this can range fom firewood, to gas to electricity. Firewood and gas (cylinders) need to be delivered by road by people. Electricity is a different ball game. Here again it is maintenance intensive - neding people on the ground to do the work. Garbage collection and disposal, maintenance of sewers and drains, cleaning of streets all require people to do physical inspection and work. Healthcare too is human intensive with one a ratio of 10:1 for the number of people involved in looking after a moderately injured or ill person. If you can wipe out 20% of the workforce or their families, one rapidly brings the services of a city to a standstill.

As detailed above, a single 50 kiloton blast over a crucial populated area of Rawalpindi will kill over 400,000 people and leave a similar number injured. This amounts to about 25% of the population of Rawalpindi. Since most of the people targeted will be poor to middle class, selectively sparing the wealthy who are spread out in their communities, a disproportionate number of the service segment of Islamabad and Rawalpindi will be wiped out ensuring that the cities will become unlivable in a week to ten days time. Even if thousands of people are recruited from outside to come in and help their primary work will be hampered by roads choked with refugees flowing out of the city and their work, in any case will have to be to handle the injured and clear the area of dead rotting bodies before any serious repair work can be undertaken.

250,000 injured people is a huge number. Many will go a few hundred meters or a few km and collapse on the road, with a huddle of relatives around them not knowing what to do. At best, the United States is said to have at any given time the beds to handle 2000 cases of burns simultaneously and that is all over the US. If push comes to shove, the US with its facilities may be able to ramp up that figure to 10,000 cases (again all over the US). There is absolutely no chance of a city like Islamabad/Rawalpindi of handling 35 to 40,000 cases of flash burns simultaneously from a total of 350,000 injured people with all sorts of injuries. No country in the world can do that. Inevitably - many will die and those that die will be the poorer people of the service sector as the rich elite will fill up understaffed hospital beds with even minor injuries.

And this is just one nuke on one city. I believe Pakistani leaders who wish to start a nuclear war with India will have to consider very carefully what they are asking for, and remember that they will probably survive the Indian retaliation, and will emerge from their nuclear bunkers to live in a country such as what I have described above. They will then have to see how long they can continue to live under such circumstances or which country will accept them as refugees if they want to cut and run, after having started a nuclear war.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 06 Nov 2009 12:54

Very nice Shiv, been checking this thread around 10 times a day waiting for the scenario, was every bit worth it! Thanks!

Now imagine 6 x 50kt exploding over Karachi a city spread over 3530sq.kms. with population of around 2 crores!

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 07 Nov 2009 08:40

While sifting through the mass of material that I had to go through to write the above scenario I read lots of stuff. I have heard Gohar Ayub Khan and Hamid Gul of Pakistan speaking lightly about a nuclear attack on India. In this connection it is well worth making Paklurks read about what they and their families might see and feel when their brave generals hiding in bunkers decide to nuke India and get nuked back in retaliation.

http://www.atomicarchive.com/Docs/Hibak ... bori.shtml

TAOKA: When we were near in Hatchobori and since I had been holding my son in my arms, the young woman in front of me said, "I will be getting off here. Please take this seat." We were just changing places when there was a strange smell and sound. It suddenly became dark and before I knew it, I had jumped outside.
INTERVIEWER: What about your son?
TAOKA: I held him firmly and looked down on him. He had been standing by the window and I think fragments of glass had pierced his head. His face was a mess because of the blood flowing from his head. But he looked at my face and smiled. His smile has remained glued in my memory. He did not comprehend what had happened. And so he looked at me and smiled at my face which was all bloody. I had plenty of milk which he drank all throughout that day. I think my child sucked the poison right out of my body. And soon after that he died. Yes, I think that he died for me.

http://www.atomicarchive.com/Docs/Hibak ... hiro.shtml

Then I looked at myself and found my clothes had turned into rags due to the heat. I was probably burned at the back of the head, on my back, on both arms and both legs. My skin was peeling and hanging like this. Automatically I began to walk heading west because that was the direction of my home. After a while, I noticed somebody calling my name. I looked around and found a friend of mine who lived in my town and was studying at the same school. His name was Yamamoto. He was badly burnt just like myself. We walked toward the river. And on the way we saw many victims. I saw a man whose skin was completely peeled off the upper half of his body and a woman whose eye balls were sticking out. Her whole baby was bleeding. A mother and her baby were lying with a skin completely peeled off. We desperately made a way crawling. And finally we reached the river bank.

http://www.atomicarchive.com/Docs/Hibakusha/Akira.shtml

What impressed my very strongly was a 5 or 6 year-old-boy with his right leg cut at the thigh. He was hopping on his left foot to cross over the bridge. I can still record this scene very clearly. The water of the river we looking at now is very clean and clear, but on the day of bombing, all the houses along this river were blown by the blast with their pillars, beams and pieces of furniture blown into the river or hanging off the bridges. The river was also filled with dead people blown by the blast and with survivors who came here to seek water. Anyway I could not see the surface of the water at all. Many injured people with peeled skin were crying out for help. Obviously they were looking at us and we could hardly turn our eyes toward the river.

http://www.atomicarchive.com/Docs/Hibak ... roko.shtml

INTERVIEWER: How was your younger sister?
MS. FUKADA: She was in Zakoba-cho and she had also been mobilized to pull down houses. We never found her. At that time I was only 18 years old and have lost my parents all of a sudden. I didn't know what to do. But I had two small brothers that I had to take care of and support. So I could not afford to bend my self to grief. I was very hard to raise my brothers and try not to depend on others. I went frantically day after day. Well, it was so cruel. It is hard to talk about it. I can't.

http://www.atomicarchive.com/Docs/Hibak ... oshi.shtml

Mr. Hiroshi Sawachika was 28 years old when the bomb was dropped. He was an army doctor stationed at the army headquarters in Ujina. When he was exposed, he was inside the building at the headquarters, 4.1 km from the hypocenter. Being rather far from the hypocenter, he was not seriously injured. Afterwards, he was very busy getting medical treatment to the survivors.
MR. SAWACHIKA: I was in my office. I had just entered the room and said "Good morning." to colleagues and I was about to approach my desk when outside it suddenly turned bright red. I felt very hot on my cheeks. Being the chief of the room, I shouted to the young men and women in the room that they should evacuate. As soon as I cried, I felt weightless as if I were an astronaut. I was then unconscious for 20 or 30 seconds. When I came to, I realized that everybody including myself was lying at one side of the room. Nobody was standing. The desks and chairs had also blown off to one side. At the windows, there was no window glass and the window frames had been blown out as well. I went to the windows to find out where the bombing had taken place. And I saw the mushroom cloud over the gas company. The sound and shock somehow suggested that the bomb had been dropped right over the gas company. I still had no idea what had happened. And I kept looking towards the gas company. After a while, I realized that my white shirt was red all over. I thought it was funny because I was not injured at all. I looked around and then realized that the girl lying near by was heavily injured, with lots of broken glass stuck all over her body. Her blood had splashed and made stains on my shirt. In a few minutes, I heard my name called. I was told to go to the headquarters where there were lots of injured persons waiting. I went there and I started to give treatment with the help of nurses and medical course men. We first treated the office personnel for their injuries. Most of them had broken glass and pieces of wood stuck into them. We treated them one after another. Afterwards, we heard the strange noise. It sounded as if a large flock of mosquitoes were coming from a distance. We looked out of the window to find out what was happening. We saw that citizens from the town were marching towards us. They looked unusual. We understood that the injured citizens were coming towards us for treatment. But while, we thought that there should be Red Cross Hospitals and another big hospitals in the center of the town. So why should they come here, I wondered, instead of going there.

Also see
http://www.atomicarchive.com/Docs/Hibak ... hito.shtml

Airavat · Post by **Airavat** » 07 Nov 2009 14:53

Excellent scenario of the impact of a nuclear detonation in Rawalpindi, Shiv. Posted it on my blog with a link to this thread.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 07 Nov 2009 15:02

Shiv writes an epic and I miss it!!!!!!!!!!!! What has this world come to?

Shiv ji,

50 kilotons is proven and undisputed Indian capability

Any URLs on that and any more info (fission, FBF, Fusion (ouch, sorry))?

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 07 Nov 2009 15:05

when their brave generals hiding in bunkers decide to nuke India and get nuked back in retaliation.

Just want to touch on that topic (bunkers). One of THE challenges the US has TODAY is a total lack of getting to assets inside bunkers. We ALL know they have the nukes. And, of course, once approved, testing is the next touchy topic.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 07 Nov 2009 20:15

NRao wrote:
when their brave generals hiding in bunkers decide to nuke India and get nuked back in retaliation.
Just want to touch on that topic (bunkers). One of THE challenges the US has TODAY is a total lack of getting to assets inside bunkers. We ALL know they have the nukes. And, of course, once approved, testing is the next touchy topic.

You know raoji - all that reading I did suggests that the "key" to destruction is "max overpressure". IOW if you need to get "max overpressure" that is really reeeeally huge to take out underground bunkers you need megaton level bombs. The problem of course is that you need to know where the bunkers are in the first place so that you can drop your megaboom there. Otherwise you just get a lot of civilian damage which is easy-peasy.

The US's problem has always been the "How to get Saddam/Osama" problem. Once you stop worrying about getting leaders in their bunkers and star thinking about soft targets to kill people and make city life unlivable, then kilotons of any yield are fine.

In a beeee-yootifully planned out first strike - you could take out leaders of an enemy with 10 or 12 Megabooms and leave the country intact. But that is a different philosophy from saying "To hell with the leaders in the bunkers, we will just kill the cities and let the leaders live on and fight on if they can. It won;t be long before they too come to grinding halt"

The former seems more "humane" and the latter cruel. But that's not really true IMO.
'

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 07 Nov 2009 20:49

shiv wrote:
NRao wrote: Just want to touch on that topic (bunkers). One of THE challenges the US has TODAY is a total lack of getting to assets inside bunkers. We ALL know they have the nukes. And, of course, once approved, testing is the next touchy topic.
You know raoji - all that reading I did suggests that the "key" to destruction is "max overpressure". IOW if you need to get "max overpressure" that is really reeeeally huge to take out underground bunkers you need megaton level bombs. The problem of course is that you need to know where the bunkers are in the first place so that you can drop your megaboom there. Otherwise you just get a lot of civilian damage which is easy-peasy.

The US's problem has always been the "How to get Saddam/Osama" problem. Once you stop worrying about getting leaders in their bunkers and star thinking about soft targets to kill people and make city life unlivable, then kilotons of any yield are fine.

In a beeee-yootifully planned out first strike - you could take out leaders of an enemy with 10 or 12 Megabooms and leave the country intact. But that is a different philosophy from saying "To hell with the leaders in the bunkers, we will just kill the cities and let the leaders live on and fight on if they can. It won;t be long before they too come to grinding halt"

The former seems more "humane" and the latter cruel. But that's not really true IMO.
'

There is one aspect that is not detailed in your scenario.

What is the objective of a massive nuclear attack?

Do you want a complete obliteration of the adversary? That will be glowing wasteland for a thousand years. Why bother warhead types? Throw everything you have got, in every cave visible.

OR

Do you wish to confront a responsible body after the aftermath, that will accept your terms of surrender, turn over criminals, disband offensive capacities and in general manage semblance of civilization?

Strangely, I've not seen the scenario for the second possibility. When talking of deterrence, one must keep in mind there are other adversaries beside Pakistan and goals during a conflict will differ with each of them.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 07 Nov 2009 23:33

Very nice question SRoy, I would like to share my take on this.

Nuclear weapons in context of our Bharat has two aspects:
1.) One is Deterrence which is regarding the Chinese, a rich country which has much to lose even if 10-15 targets refineries/industrial are taken out and economically they go back by 50-100 years. The thing with Chinese is they are only seeing us competitors and thus want to put us in our place. Even in case they defeat us whether conventionally or nuclear warwise. They will lose interest and turn their back towards our country go back to climbing the ladders of growth.
2.) The second is which I see as much much more imortant that is NUCLEAR WEAPONS AS THE WEAPONS OF SURVIVAL OF BHARATVARSH. I remember when Bush attacked Iraq in GW2, Mushirul Hasan had written an editorial in TOI, in that he said nobody can win against islam. He took the example of Iraq conquered by Mongols and how even after being conquered he said "We converted mongols to Islam not vice-versa". Now war regarding Pakistan is not just a war against a country, Its against an expansionist religion of which TSP is a small part of. This war is being waged in several ways, but the most effective and unbeatable strategy is expansion of population. As shiv has mentioned in his book "Pakistan a failed state", how TSP's population has increased 5-6 times since 1947. Now if we take minimum figures of Porki + BD + Indian muslim population then by 2040 they will be majority. Some Mulla Mahdudi, Aytollah Khomeni can start the chant of Unifying india (TSP, BD, Bharat) under their one umbrella of Islam and declare it as an islamic country. Then their goal created by the first attack of Usman in 7th century will be fulfilled. So you see the difference between 2 enemies China and Porkis is enormous.
It is in this regard that I say SRoy, that first option given by you is the only option against Porkis+BD. While Second is to be regarding China.
I have been reading BR for quite sometime now, and some of the greatest minds have given nice insights into strategies countering Porkis.

But everybody here seems to overlook discussing this unbeatable strategy of taking over by population expansion. At the risk of sounding a megalomaniac warmonger I cannot emphasis more strongly that nuke war with porkis + BD + SA is the only way for this country to survive[as Bharat].

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 08 Nov 2009 00:20

Manish_Sharma wrote: a rich country which has much to lose even if 10-15 targets refineries/industrial are taken out and economically they go back by 50-100 years.

Isnt this a fundamental contradiction, a rich country has less to lose if a part of the country is lost. If you own 1000000 Rs, losing 10 is okay, but not so if you have only 100.

Unless of course you are assuming that the 10-15 we can hit will form a significantly high % of its wealth.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 08 Nov 2009 00:30

Sanku wrote:
Manish_Sharma wrote: a rich country which has much to lose even if 10-15 targets refineries/industrial are taken out and economically they go back by 50-100 years.
Isnt this a fundamental contradiction, a rich country has less to lose if a part of the country is lost. If you own 1000000 Rs, losing 10 is okay, but not so if you have only 100.

Unless of course you are assuming that the 10-15 we can hit will form a significantly high % of its wealth.

No Sanku the whole of China is having just 10-11 refineries, as you can see in the map on page 11 of this thread and they are surrounded very densly with industrial sites. So even if these are taken out China will have gone back by decades. The thing is rich man feels the pain and pinch more because they have dreams and aims to fulfill. They have a certain status to maintain hence easy to deter.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 08 Nov 2009 00:42

Very nice analysis by Shiv of what a nuclear attack on Rawalpindi might look like. Honestly makes me wish that our entire need for deterrence could be fulfilled with kiloton-yield weapons to kill large numbers of Paki aam junta and scary interviews with Hiroshima survivors to make them think twice about attacking us. Trouble is, TSPA does a fine job of killing Paki aam junta already... so killing aam junta is, of itself, limited in deterrence value. Also, we have other people besides the TSPA to deter.

We absolutely need to be able to inflict the max overpressure achievable with megaton TN devices. This is precisely because killing lakhs of Paki or Chinese aam junta will have negligible (if any) impact on our ability to fight and win a nuclear war. Forget decapitation of leadership...to take out any sort of hardened target that would, for example, protect Chinese warheads or strategic stores or infrastructural hubs or industries that sustain their warfighting capability, we need to be able to replace those sites with craters. That means we need megaton devices that can be employed in countervalue groundstrikes.

Let me rephrase that. We don't NEED megaton devices. We can attempt to achieve the same results with (many more) kiloton devices. Hell, we can attempt to achieve the same results with conventional weapons. We can, in theory, keep flying hundreds of Jaguar sorties over the same site in Lop Nur or Guangzhou until we completely take it out.

But in practice, there is no substitute... because (1) we don't have unlimited numbers of Jaguars, pilots, LGBs, or even kiloton nuclear devices to keep throwing at their targets until we take out their warfighting capacity, not to mention unlimited amounts of time. And (2) meanwhile, they DO have megaton devices that they WILL use to take out our ordinance factories, core industries, airbases, and reinforced hubs of logistics, storage and infrastructure... thus very quickly capping the numbers of jaguars, spare parts, munitions etc. we can bring to the battle.

We are screwed both ways if we rely on kiloton weapons while they have megabooms. The number of weapons we must use to achieve a specific objective becomes more... the number of strike operations we must carry out to achieve a specific objective (and the attendant risk of failure) becomes more... the amount of attritive costs we incur with each of our strike operations becomes more... the quantum of loss we face with each successful enemy strike becomes more. And the number and size of storage sites we must use to store our large, cumbersome arsenal becomes more as well, offering additional targets to the enemy. It's not just about "mine is bigger"... it's about, "because mine are smaller we need more of them, and that makes us more vulnerable to the bigger weapons of our enemies".

In fact, the more we rely on smaller kiloton weapons or conventional methods to achieve our goals in a war, the more vulnerable our strike capacity becomes to chinese megaton weapons! Against this, where is the "deterrence" in being able to kill a few lakh aam junta? They will absorb the first few hits, use their megabooms to make sure we can't deliver any more hits of any kind, then use their kiloton weapons (or even bayonets) to finish off lakhs and crores of our aam junta at leisure. End of story.

Did you ever consider why, for instance, the Chinese stole the W88 warhead design from the Americans? The Chinese already had megaton weapons, after all. It wasn't about the capacity for more boom... it was because W88s were small and lightweight and could be moved from one storage place to another easily if there were any suspicion that their location had been compromised by enemy intelligence. Weaponizing their warheads as W88s instead of large, cumbersome older models, actually protected the Chinese arsenal from being taken out by American or Russian pre-emptive strikes.

It is for all these reasons that further R&D and further testing to vastly improve our nuclear arsenal are absolutely necessary if we want to achieve anything resembling actual deterrence. It's not just about building a huuuuuuuge TN that yields X number of megatons, but making sure that the TN works, that it is weaponizable, that it can be MIRVed, that the IA can safely and easily transport and store it in response to potential threats. That it is a weapon which we can secure perfectly until it is needed for use, and ready it for use in very short order when necessary. Not some ancient hand-carved musket that we hang up on the living room wall to scare daakoos.

This will not require one more or two more chupa-rustom tests. It will require commitment to a long-term plan of research, development and repeated tests of everything from TN explosions to MIRV delivery systems. We need to make sure every single aspect of our strategic arsenal works successfully with repeatable results, and that's only possible if we tell the rest of the world to mind their own damn business while we run every conceivable test in the book.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 08 Nov 2009 00:59

Pakis are our deer brothers and should not be kept in dark. For their sake they deserve to know what will happen if instead of 50Kt ,each bum is 150-300Kt and too spicy one with salt. Even if the damage is not to be measured in linenar way , still the possibiity of Paki Pop Corn dance must fulfill their imagination, dream and reality.