Deterrence

[NRao]

Crater size and yield is mostly mumbo jumbo because if you bury a bomb deep enough you get no crater. If it is too shallow it blows out and produces a enormous crater.

Shiv ji,

No. It is not mumbo jumbo. It is as precise as the operations you perhaps perform. We have been using these techniques for decades - India was one the first nations to rely on them (after the USSR). So, please do not go down that path. Once the geology of a region is known, it is rather very bland and very predictable.

Please remember that nukes HAD another purpose: peaceful uses - they had proposed to dig a parallel canal in Panama using such nukes. No mumbo jumbo - cannot have that for peaceful uses. It HAS to be predictable for peaceful uses.

DOB: 120, Yield: 45 Soil: Sandstone/Shale Crater: ?
DOB: 120, Yield: 20 Soil: Sandstone/Shale Crater: ?
DOB: 120, Yield: 20 Soil: Sandstone/Shale/Granite Crater: ?
DOB: 120, Yield: 45 Soil: Sandstone/Shale/Granite Crater: ?

Also, repeat the same with DOB as 230. I am probably, more math challenged or lazy than you are. Thanks.

I am not sure what you both are looking for.

IF it is a crater, then at that depth (120 meters) there will be a crater formed for all four scenarios. The radius will differ for sure.

You can eyeball it from the Toman curves and get the info. It is very trivial.

At 230 meter you get a retarc in all those cases.

That for the nth time!!!!!

[NRao]

ST,

The question is at 120 meters, with a yield of 15/20/25/45 Kts, what will the radius of a crater be in a) alluvium and b) granite.



Fun times ahead.

[ShauryaT]

but I am convinced that India will not test. It's not going to happen.

I believe that too, that India under the MMS/Congress Government is unlikely to test. However, MMS can still do a big favor. Dig 10 shafts, each 300 meters deep. If he says, he has no intention to test, he will not be lying and the world will believe him, but he will do India a big favor.

[ramana]

He might not have to do that. Make sure existing ones are not filled up.

[ShauryaT]

My point was they knew, that the test had to be conducted in the white house shaft.

True but how do you reliably scale down the design yield of a bomb to suit an existing shaft? The calculations would take centuries by hand. Even by computer it would take time.

If I knew the answer to that, I would be a weapons designer

Your speculations on scaling are as good as anyone. However, it is likely that the design of 45 KT was a scaled down version of some higher yield. It is also possible that Sikka took an older TN design and made it into a design a yield type of scalable design. Going by all that was tested and the penchant for more "research" as opposed to "weapons", the TN design may have been ambitious, for a first go.

[ShauryaT]

I am not sure what you both are looking for.

IF it is a crater, then at that depth (120 meters) there will be a crater formed for all four scenarios. The radius will differ for sure.

You can eyeball it from the Toman curves and get the info. It is very trivial.

At 230 meter you get a retarc in all those cases.

That for the nth time!!!!!

NRao: If you have done these calculations with both models and can post a simple table with 8-10 scenarios of the above, it will help. I think Shiv is right. There are enough variables that a close to accurate answer is not possible, without more data. Things such as the exact composition of the densities of the rocks in the mix and their quantum.

It seems the most reliable will be a model, based on POK I characteristics and apply the scaling laws. I do not know, if the L shaped shaft will make much of a difference.

DOB: 107 meters, Soil: Sandstone, Yield: 8 or 10 KT, Crater: 47 meters

Now, assuming that even a 20 KT at a depth of 120 meters, will form a crater. We then come up with several possibilities, including a fatal one?

[ShauryaT]

1) what kind of fraud needs have taken place and 2) EVERY member needs to sing the same tune.

IF the depth was fraudulent, then EVERYTHING associated with it needs to be matched perfectly (within range).

Then EVERY member of the team needs to sing the same tune in unison.

Then to convince the world. This includes people like Changappa, perhaps the entire US team under the Bush regime, every armed force member who "thinks" that such-a-such nuke is on an Agni ..........................................

That is something. Imagine. .................. I used to be impressed by the Great Train robbers.

NRao: I want to revisit this issue. Let us sequence it and see what likely happened and when and corroborate as much as possible. We can come to our own conclusions.

Going in presumption. Do not think a fraud was planned before the tests or a fraud was instantly fabricated and propagated by any of the parties involved, immediately (meaning in hours and days) after the tests. I still leave open the small chance that the BARC may still be right, in their assessment of the issue.

11 May 1998
Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee announces that at 3:45 p.m. (10:15 GMT/6:15 EDT) India conducted three nuclear tests at the nuclear test site in Pokhran, in the state of Rajasthan. According to the prime minister, a fission device, a low-yield device, and a thermonuclear device were tested, and the "yields are in line with expected values." The tests did not result in the release of any radioactive material in the atmosphere. An Indian government press statement issued later says the tests have proven India's capability for a weaponized nuclear program and "are expected to carry Indian scientists towards a sound computer simulation capability which may be supported by sub-critical experiments if considered necessary." The Indian Government reiterates its support for an international arrangement that would prohibit underground nuclear tests (including sub-critical tests), and states that "India would be prepared to consider being an adherent to some of the undertakings in the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty [CTBT]." The press statement indicates that CTBT consideration should "necessarily be an evolutionary process from concept to commitment and would depend on a number of reciprocal activities." India expresses its commitment to universal nuclear disarmament, and the willingness to negotiate the fissile material cut-off treaty. The government also reaffirms its adherence to stringent export controls of "sensitive technologies, equipment, and commodities."
—Official Press Release, Ministry of External Affairs, External Publicity Division, New Delhi, 11 May 1998, <http://www.meadev.nic.in>/; "India Explodes Three Nuclear Devices at Pokhran," Hindu (Chennai), 11 May 1998,<http://www.hinduonline.com>.

13 May 1998
India conducts two more sub-kiloton nuclear tests at 12:21 p.m. (local time). The Indian government announces that the planned test series is now complete. A government press release says that the tests were conducted "to generate additional data for improved computer simulation of designs and for attaining the capability to carry out sub-critical experiments, if considered necessary." According to the official statement, no radioactivity was released in the atmosphere. The government reiterates its readiness to undertake some actions under the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) as proposed on 11 May 1998.
—"Planned Series of Nuclear Tests Completed," Official Press Release, Ministry of External Affairs, 13 May 1998, <http://www.meadev.nic.in>.

15 May 1998
Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) Chairman R. Chidambaram announces that India tested a thermonuclear device on 11 May 1998. According to Chidambaram, "the fission trigger produced about 12 kilotons to activate the thermonuclear core to ultimately yield 45 kilotons." Prime Minister Vajpayee tells India Today, "We now have a capacity for a big bomb." When asked why the tests preceded the formation of the National Security Council, Vajpayee says that National Security Council would be tasked to carry out the first strategic defense review and "conducting of nuclear tests provides necessary information for this important exercise."
—T.S. Gopi Rethinaraj, "Indian Blasts Surprise the World, but Leave Fresh Doubts," Jane's Intelligence Review (Coulsdon, Surrey), July 1998, pp. 19-22.; "Nuclear Shock Wave," India Today, 25 May 1998, <http://www.indiatoday.com/>;"We Have Shown Them That We Mean Business," Interview with the Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, India Today, 25 May 1998, <http://www.indiatoday.com/>.

17 May 1998
The Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) and Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) issue a joint statement on the nuclear test series carried out on 11 and 13 May 1998. According to the statement, the three tests conducted on 11 May 1998 were that of "a fission device with the yield of about 12kt, a thermonuclear device with a yield of about 43kt and a sub-kiloton device. All three devices were detonated simultaneously." The statement says that "the yield of thermonuclear device tested on May 11 was designed to meet the stringent criteria like containment of the explosion and least possible damage to building and structures in neighboring villages." On 13 May two sub-kiloton devices were tested simultaneously. The yields of the devices "were in the range of 0.2 to 0.6kt." The fissile materials used in the five tests "are completely indigenous, and have been produced by local mastery over the relevant technologies by DAE establishments." The tests provided critical data for the validation of India's capability "in the design of nuclear weapons of different yields for different applications and different delivery systems." Furthermore, the tests "significantly enhanced" India's capability "in computer simulations of new designs" and will allow India to conduct "sub-critical experiments in the future, if considered necessary."
—Joint Statement by Department of Atomic Energy and Defense Research and Development Organization, Ministry of External Affairs of India, 17 May 1998, <http://www.meadev.nic.in>.

20 May 1998
Dr. B.K. Subba Rao, a former Indian Navy captain who worked on India's nuclear submarine program, challenges the Department of Atomic Energy's (DAE) claims that it successfully tested a thermonuclear device. According to Rao, only one explosion was registered by the seismic station within 437 kilometers from the blast area. Rao points out that seismic stations around the world recorded values between 15 and 25 kilotons. According to Rao, the positioning of the thermonuclear design within one kilometer of the two fission devices (both in one tube 300 meters apart) is "not sufficient to produce a phase difference and reduce the output of energy." Furthermore, the value of 45kt [DAE actually declared 43kt] is meaningless since the thermonuclear design must have a yield measured in megatons. Rao charges that the actual yield of the thermonuclear device tested on May 11 "was not even 30 kilotons." According to Rao, this result could mean the thermonuclear test either failed or that DAE probably tested a boosted-fission device.
—P. Rajendran, "India May Not Have an H-Bomb, Says Scientist," Rediff on the Net, 25 May 1998, <http://www.rediff.com>;"Scientist Questions DAE Claim," Hindu (Chennai), 20 May 1998, <http://www.hinduonline.com>; B.K. Subba Rao, "The H-Bomb Issue Is Crucial," Frontline, Vol. 15, No. 12, 6-9 June 1998, <http://www.hinduonline.com>.

23 May 1998
Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee asserts that India is a nuclear weapon power and that no more tests are planned. According to Vajpayee, "the one and only reason for undertaking the tests was to ensure our security and to let the people of India and the world know that we have a credible deterrent."

28 May 1998
In the aftermath of Pakistan's nuclear tests, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee says India might reconsider its voluntary moratorium on nuclear tests. Speaking to the press, Vajpayee states that "India is prepared to meet any eventuality. We are committed to deterrence." He says that Pakistan's clandestine preparations "forced" India "on the path of a nuclear deterrent."
—Vijay Simha, "India May Review Moratorium," Indian Express (Mumbai), 28 May 1998, <http://www.expressindia.com>.

All the above is from the chronology at nti.org. I have selected and highlighted those parts, which I think are important to reconstruct on what may have happened, behind the scenes, within the first two weeks. Everything else followed from there.

[NRao]

ST,

I do not see a purpose for such an exercise.

I would suggest that you use the Toman curves in the V Sunder article I posted a few posts ago to come up with a table.

To me this entire episode revolves around:

Santhanam's observations and expectations: Depth 120 meters, crater radius 72 meters, estimated yield about 25 Kt. Observed: No crater, dust rising, shaft in tact, A-frame in tact. The point being EVEN at 15 Kt yield (forget about Santhanam's estimated yield) there should be a crater. Why was there not one at yield estimates way above 15 Kt?

RC/Sikka: Depth 230 meters, estimated yield 45 Kt. Observation: No crater, shaft in tact, A-Frame in tact, some rising dust that settles with a small bulge in the middle. Point being EVEN at maximum yield of 45 Kt there can be no crater and there was none.

So, to me BOTH go against Santhanam's position. (That is not a knock on Santhanam, but I am certainly questioning his position based on numbers from both sides.)

Anything beyond that - he could have, may have, think he may have, could be that ........ is speculation beyond what we have. Which is fine, but I am really not interested in that.

I do think the one entity that can break this situation is the IA. They should have the depth to which S1 shaft was dug.

[NRao]

St,

Sorry. I had typed out the above post and did not submit it until way after you posted your post.

However, the fact still remains that even at 12 Kt yield, at 120 meters deep there should have been a crater - small, but a crater. I assume Santhanam (and perhaps all else) can agree that the S1 was at least around 12 Kt?

[shiv]

True but how do you reliably scale down the design yield of a bomb to suit an existing shaft? The calculations would take centuries by hand. Even by computer it would take time.

If I knew the answer to that, I would be a weapons designer .

You know I suspect that even "weapons designers" may not get it exactly right in one go. And I suspect again that if you do such a test (based on a design obtained from simulation only) and you get anywhere near what you calculated you will a call it a big success. Just a guess.

[shiv]

Shiv ji,

No. It is not mumbo jumbo. It is as precise as the operations you perhaps perform. We have been using these techniques for decades - India was one the first nations to rely on them (after the USSR). So, please do not go down that path. Once the geology of a region is known, it is rather very bland and very predictable.

Please remember that nukes HAD another purpose: peaceful uses - they had proposed to dig a parallel canal in Panama using such nukes. No mumbo jumbo - cannot have that for peaceful uses. It HAS to be predictable for peaceful uses.

I accept your point humbly. But when someone takes a satellite picture of a crater and starts guessing yield with no knowledge of local rock or depth of burial it does become mumbo-jumbo doesn't it? I would be happy to be corrected on this point. The reason of course is that a "near miss" by a factor of 2 or 4 will be accurate enough for such guesswork. The surgical analogy is "Oops - I missed your gall bladder, but I guess it must have come out with your liver that I took out"

[shiv]

NRao: I want to revisit this issue. Let us sequence it and see what likely happened and when and corroborate as much as possible. We can come to our own conclusions.

<snip>

All the above is from the chronology at nti.org. I have selected and highlighted those parts, which I think are important to reconstruct on what may have happened, behind the scenes, within the first two weeks. Everything else followed from there.

Shaurya - I downloaded and saved several years of info from nti.org just in case it goes offline. The overall impression I get is that that the Indian political leadership was really scared of the sort of sanctions the US and others could apply on India. I do no say this loosely. We do see a lot of people asking "Why can't India be bold and test? Why can't our traitorous leadership show some cojones?"

But I read the issue differently. I think the US and other nations will be able to do serious damage to India. There is a connection between what I write here in this thread with what I write about India's situation in other threads - so let me briefly digress.

I believe that India has such a huge mass of uneducated and poor people that a half percent or one percent slowing down of our economy by some means will keep 50 million people in poverty for an extra 10 to 15 years. Anyone who deals with entities as large as nations realise this and nobody more so than the US and the wealthy West. India IMO has embarked on an unprecedented race against time to remain politically democratic and "free" while trying to raise the status of a huge mass of people (currently 200-300 million in my estimate).

When we threaten the "world order" and the world community - they fight us by "peaceful means" - ie economic sanctions to push us deeper into muck. We were neck deep in muck in 1947. We are now waist deep in muck despite a tripling of our population since then (which is a fantastic achievement even if we incessantly whip ourselves for not equalling or exceeding China) . As an aside - I belong to India's RAPE class. My status and connections will likely ensure that even if India tests and faces sanctions, my family status and wealth will somehow manage to get past that unscathed. (The same is probably true of most BRFItes) But those sanctions hit the bottom 300-400 million and India gets pushed back by 15 or 20 years. And that is at least part of the reason why politicos and economists are so sh1t scared of rocking to boat beyond a point that is absolutely essential. IMO a truly patriotic Indian cannot afford to take his attention off the bottom 300 million in India.

Just my thoughts. Apologies for the digression.

[Hari Seldon]

^^^ NRao saar, very thoughtful post. Opens a whole new perspective. Thank you for the same.

Though I must humbly maintain that yours is the charitable explanation - that the elites cared primarily for the bottom 25% of the country to go all out to stop sanctions. Evidence is mixed at best on this score - the same establishment through a vice like grip on regulatory maze, economic and entrepreneurial constraints, lack of clear transparency and accountability at every single level of governance and administration one can think of etc, had every opportunity independent of western attitudes towards India, to ease much of the socioeconomic morass afflicting the bottom half in India. It seems the establishment chose not to for as long as they could get away with it. A trillion (lowball estimate) USD in productive capital locked away inswiss vaults they say. Their seizure is what the elites feared more than the condition of the bottom half.

JMTs of course.

What does this have to do with deterrence? Well, it shows India can be deterred by the wealth of its elites held captive and for ransom abroad.

[vera_k]

I believe that India has such a huge mass of uneducated and poor people that a half percent or one percent slowing down of our economy by some means will keep 50 million people in poverty for an extra 10 to 15 years. Anyone who deals with entities as large as nations realise this and nobody more so than the US and the wealthy West.

This is bunk. Give these 50 million a leader, two square meals, a rifle and 50 bullets and they will solve both the Pakistan and the Western problem. Isn't that what is supposed to be sucking our resources and holding India back?

[shiv]

I do think the one entity that can break this situation is the IA. They should have the depth to which S1 shaft was dug.

Not proof, but conjecture follows.

Check this scan from Chengappa's WOP

http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a11/cy ... OP-394.jpg

He says the regiment sealed the deeper shaft after being fed up of maintenance and it was full of water after reopening.

Could the deeper shaft have been below the water table but not the shallower one (Taj Mahal). Taj Mahal is put at 150 meters in WOP. 15 kt in Taj Mahal produced a smaller crater than "2 to 12 kt" in 1974 POK1 at 107 meters.


Interestingly Sublette has a great series of Post-Shakti pics
http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/India/I ... ShaktiIV_V

Taj Mahal (fission) shows subsidence crater but intact huts

White House (TN) shows collapsed huts and no crater. A winch is seen at the mouth of a visible shaft. That winch is a different winch from the "shaft and winch" photo shown separately. Comparing with other pics in WOP (not online) the other winch was over White house. As per photos in WOP the mouth of shaft and winch is still present over Taj Mahal (fission) despite the subsidence crater.

[shiv]

This is bunk. Give these 50 million a leader, two square meals, a rifle and 50 bullets and they will solve both the Pakistan and the Western problem. Isn't that what is supposed to be sucking our resources and holding India back?

Very chankian verak, but also humorous.

May I remind you that weapons bearing people numbering 50 million will have another 150 - 200 million as family who will also need to be fed with said 2 square meals

Alternatively 50 million who get 2 square meals will produce only ~ 10 million people capable of bearing arms.

[vera_k]

Very chankian verak, but also humorous.

May I remind you that weapons bearing people numbering 50 million will have another 150 - 200 million as family who will also need to be fed with said 2 square meals

Alternatively 50 million who get 2 square meals will produce only ~ 10 million people capable of bearing arms.

I fail to see the humor. Food shortage has not been an issue for a while now.

[shiv]

Very chankian verak, but also humorous.

May I remind you that weapons bearing people numbering 50 million will have another 150 - 200 million as family who will also need to be fed with said 2 square meals

Alternatively 50 million who get 2 square meals will produce only ~ 10 million people capable of bearing arms.

I fail to see the humor. Food shortage has not been an issue for a while now.

Correct. So it is funny that there is malnutrition in India. Or are you saying something funnier than that - ie. that there is no malnutrition because there is no food shortage?

[JwalaMukhi]

http://tinyurl.com/foodshort
Wed, Nov 18, 2009 at 15:28 in India section

Expecting a 14-15 million shortfall in paddy production and procurement this year,India may import rice to shore up its stocks Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said in New Delhi on Wednesday.

"There is a projection that there will be a shortfall of our kharif (summer) crop. So we may have to make some imports," Mukherjee told reporters on the sidelines of an event organised by the Union Bank of India.

[Jarita]

That is what GMO will lead to
This government will truly lead us to beggary. They have effectively reversed all the gains we have pmade in the lats few years

[vera_k]

Correct. So it is funny that there is malnutrition in India. Or are you saying something funnier than that - ie. that there is no malnutrition because there is no food shortage?

And there are fat rats around the food godowns. Presumably, an army will be better able to get food to people in its charge than an indisciplined civilian government is.

[Hari Seldon]

Presumably, an army will be better able to get food to people in its charge than an indisciplined civilian government is.

Maoists can get ever better slogan raw material and ex post justifications just surfing brf only.

[Sanku]

Though I must humbly maintain that yours is the charitable explanation - that the elites cared primarily for the bottom 25% of the country to go all out to stop sanctions.
..............

What does this have to do with deterrence? Well, it shows India can be deterred by the wealth of its elites held captive and for ransom abroad.

Given what I see in India, what Hari Seldon says is a far more believable option any day rather than any supposed care by the ruling elite.

This is the same elite which was IMPORTING inedible wheat grains (which even the poorest of the poor vanvasi's didnt want) at huge costs, in order to solve the "food situation", 3-4 years back when we actually had bumper harvest.

While it would be nice to convince ourselves of linkages between guns and butter (the current being essentially a variation of the much used argument) -- we have seen no linkages in history which show that guns necessarily remove butter, in fact the other way around is more sure.

[shiv]

It you look a the actions and statements of PVNR, and later Deve Gowda and finally ABV - there is a consistent pattern of being intensely concerned about the international fallout of testing. It matters little whether their fears were based on concern for the Indian economy or concerns about their Swiss bank balances - the effect on testing was the same and remains the same.

As I see it, India is not going to test in the near future. And despite the great song and dance about India NOT signing the CTBT, India is party to the CTBT in all but signature.

If that can be taken as a given, what becomes important is the question of maintenance and development of a nuclear arsenal in the absence of overt testing as defined by the CTBT.

Here is something about Hydrodynamic testing
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/intro ... ynamic.htm

[Hari Seldon]

It you look a the actions and statements of PVNR, and later Deve Gowda and finally ABV - there is a consistent pattern of being intensely concerned about the international fallout of testing.

Fallout of testing that wasn't known a priori. Both PVNR and ABV prepped N-tests. The latter went ahead with them because the yanks lost track of the ball by the time the NDA strode into power. PVN probably would have tested perhaps had news of the impending tests not already leaked into the khan's ears. Point being the sanctions regime expected would be different based on when the khans came to know the obvious - that Dilli needed to proof-test.

Anyway, that's all idle speculation now. Shall stop here. Tks for the engaging discussion.

[NRao]

From a pure deterrence PoV, todays FT reports that China "catches up with India in race to speak English".

[NRao]

another data point: Why India cannot be an Asian power like China

A 10+ year old data point.

[rgsrini]

India is not going to test in the near future.

I am aligned with you on this. I think India will test in the future, roughly in 1.5 to 2 decades as per my own estimates. If we manage to retain the current rate of growth or accelerate it to around 9%, we would have lifted almost all our population out of poverty by then. India would have become highly Industrialized compared to now, will have an enormous economy, mastered many of the Industrial/space/military technologies as well.

The question of saction will not even arise at that time. IMO it is a small time to wait. However, in the mean time we must hold on to our lungi and defend our nation with what ever we have even it means doing it with 25KT maal and/or co-opting superpowers to be our uncles until then.

The "green weapon" has the potential to upset the applecart (of growth) by controlling the carbon footprint of our nation. Just like all the treaties (NPT/CTPT/FCMT) in the past, I hope our government stands steadfast and doesn't sign any of the new ones as well.

[Johann]

The "green weapon" has the potential to upset the applecart (of growth) by controlling the carbon footprint of our nation. Just like all the treaties (NPT/CTPT/FCMT) in the past, I hope our government stands steadfast and doesn't sign any of the new ones as well.

rgsrini,

You know its funny, but I count how many Americans I've spoken to who also think of climate change as a European socialist plot to shackle their growth, to force them to take buses, drive small cars, to steal their freedom and wealth

The CPC leadership has suddenly realised that 'green' commitments actually destabilise *all* established industrial economies, and that this is an opportunity for them to grab all sorts of market share, *while* improving their energy security, and maybe even doing something about that killer Beijing air quality.

[rgsrini]

You know its funny, but I count how many Americans I've spoken to who also think of climate change as a European socialist plot to shackle their growth, to force them to take buses, drive small cars, to steal their freedom and wealth

I agree. It severely impacts many industries in the US as well, especially the auto, the oil and the coal (power generation)industries. But IMO it is a small sacrifice for the west to make. We are bound to hear a lot more screaming noise, especially from these well established lobbies as the pressure to turn green becomes higher.

From India's perspective, We should continue to provide brilliant advice such as "stop eating beef" to the west, "arrogantly" question the studies on glaciers published by the green scientists, support "per capita" formula, ask for money, find another Arundhati Ghosh, and what the heck... take a sick leave due to Diarheaa on the day when you have to sign...

But don't sign away anything for the next 25 years. When our economy is on the right side, let us jointly worry about the hole in our roof and start giving our own awards to the Pachauri's of the world.

Added later: Johann, To be fair, I don't know if it is actually the new weapon or if the people are trully worried about the planet and I don't actually care. All I know is that it will affect India's ability to grow and could keep 100s of millions of people under gut-wrenching poverty for several years. That is why I don't want India to sign away anything.

OT:
Personally, my gut feeling is that Science has not advanced far enough to figure out if the earth is heating or cooling or if it is the normal pattern of climate change over the course of the billions of years since the time of creation. We don't even know the impact of solar flares properly, we don't know where are we in our own galaxy and what are all the influences that can cause warming or cooling. It is absolutely ridiculous and arrogant in my opinion to pretend that we know enough to determine the root cause of this unproven phenomenon. IMO human beings on earth are like bacteria at the corner of my bathroom with only as much knowledge/tools to protect themselves. What they don't know is that I am sitting on the sofa in the next room about to wipe them off with Clorox bleach after the episode of "The Office" is over at 8:30 PM.

[NRao]

To some extent OT, but India may have 9% growth, but to gain industrial capability India HAS TO have infrastructure - road, rail ..... down to a very granular level. Cannot see that happening at a grand scale. Even IF India starts today it will be at least 30-40 years before we get to the front door.

[ShauryaT]

To some extent OT, but India may have 9% growth, but to gain industrial capability India HAS TO have infrastructure - road, rail ..... down to a very granular level. Cannot see that happening at a grand scale. Even IF India starts today it will be at least 30-40 years before we get to the front door.

AND...it has to do all this for our bottom 300 million, so add another 20-30 years to make it 50 or so? I will respond to an earlier post of yours later, lost it last night.

[shiv]

Suppose India had no nuclear weapons. Nobody could then claim that India has to be afraid of economic sanctions because of testing or deploying nukes.

But this lovely picture gets spoilt by the fact that a non nuclear India was subjected to several territory grabbing wars by China and Pakistan. So not having nuclear weapons only added to the fear that pieces of India would be bitten off continuously.

Perhaps it is coincidence, but India faced territory grabbing wars in 1947-48, 1962, 1965 and 1971. 4wars in 25 years In 1974 India tested one nuke, and after that we had only one more limited war where territory was sought to be grabbed - Kargil 1999 - so we had one more "miltary" war in the 35 years after 1974. Who says nuclear bombs are not intimidating?

But there has been a massive increase in the amount of subversive destabilization of India an support for terrorism and insurgencies by proxies. The advantage of proxies is that if you nuke the proxies you gain nothing, but if you threaten to nuke the sponsors you have to ready yourself for nuclear war and be accused of nuking an "innocent" party. Let us not forget that until 9-11 (2001) Pakistan was innocent and terrorists were freedom fighters. Even the Bush era saw a sea change in the capability of the Pakistan armed forces.

Internal security imposes its own cost. Responding to an internal security threat by testing and making more nukes (by India) adds a further economic cost in terms of trade and sanctions. So there is an optimum in between space that India is trying to occupy where it wields nuclear weapons to thwart foreign military adventurism, while keeping the nuclear threat recessed so that it is not seen as a threat by powers whose trade and help we do need. In this connection - the route that a lot of powers have taken is to bandwagon with the US in exchange for a US umbrella. But this route is unsuitable for India for too many reasons. So under the circumstances India has to show just enough nuclear weapon power to enemies while trying to get our bottom 300 million up and get infrastructure and governance in place.

In an ideal world (if history had been different, if my aunt had a d1ck) India might have been able to repeatedly test and perfect a variety of TN weapons, but there are other constraints. As Ashley Tellis (linked by me earlier and Nrao in the nuclear thread) points out the amount of fissile material you have decides how many nukes you can make. In India's case it is mainly weapons grade Plutonium (WGpu). Nobody really knows how much WGPu India has. But Tellis gives a simple formula for calculation of what you can do with WGPu.

Suppose you can make X fission bombs with your WGPu
You can make only X - Y thermonuclear bombs because TN needs more fissile material (fission plus spark plug)
But you can make X+Z boosted fission bombs because you can get the same yield from less fissile material by boosting.

If you look at the fact that TN bombs require repeated testing to perfect, you are left with only two choices if you want reliable nuclear bombs that are actually likely to work as advertised - fission and boosted fission. Fission can be tested and perfected with hydrodynamic and non nuclear testing. Boosted fission (as per internet sources) is a natural progression from fission, although it requires Tritium or LiD in small quantities.

Under the circumstances India's route seems clear. The first is to collect up as much fissile material as possible. The second is to perfect designs that can be perfected without overt nuclear testing. The third is to have a robust and survival delivery mechanism in place. The fourth is to have an equally robust nuclear doctrine. And lastly a readiness to test any time the opportunity presents itself.

JMT

[Prem]

Under the circumstances India's route seems clear. The first is to collect up as much fissile material as possible. The second is to perfect designs that can be perfected without overt nuclear testing. The third is to have a robust and survival delivery mechanism in place. The fourth is to have an equally robust nuclear doctrine. And lastly a readiness to test any time the opportunity presents itself.
JMT

Soon Chinese will force India to do another Strategic Defence Review . Oppertunity will be there, Sons of Fuddu Zhu are not smart enough to understand India.Please add Political factor to deterrence. Our leaders must be confident enough to convey the right message about willingness to use all means at hand to deter the enemy. There should be no doubt left in the mind of our enmeies that cost will be extracted for misadventure.

[Pranav]

Is there any reason to trust that Chinese have not already provided paks with thermonukes?

[shiv]

Is there any reason to trust that Chinese have not already provided paks with thermonukes?

No. They may have done that already.

Having said that I am sure India could provide some nukes to Tibetans to make a mountain fall on the Beijing-Lhasa Beijing railway line. A fission bomb would do fine. Whether we would do it is another matter.

[Pranav]

Is there any reason to trust that Chinese have not already provided paks with thermonukes?

No. They may have done that already.

Having said that I am sure India could provide some nukes to Tibetans to make a mountain fall on the Beijing-Lhasa Beijing railway line. A fission bomb would do fine. Whether we would do it is another matter.

As the Pakis say, it doesn't matter where our bombs come from as long as they can burn your dhotis. And the Pakis are absolutely right about that.

I don't see India doing anything w.r.t. Tibetans. We will only set up a committee to investigate and provide dossiers and proofs which will be rubbished by any self-respecting country that understands power politics.

We are like that onlee.

[shiv]

A review of Tellis' book
http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?213818

The review has pics reminiscent of what Samuel posted earlier

[shiv]

Inertial Confinement Fusion Facility at BARC
http://books.google.com/books?id=vAsAAA ... mb&f=false

[Amber G.]

NY times report about US...
Panel Sees No Need for A-Bomb Upgrade