India-US News and Discussion

negi · Post by **negi** » 20 Nov 2009 23:34

^ What nonsense if someone messed up or did not act in the past does that mean it be continued and adhered to in the future ? I say our strategic analysts give likes of Zaid and Gul a run for their money.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 20 Nov 2009 23:36

SaiK wrote:
RaviBg wrote:Obama 'shocker' leaves New Delhi confused, suspicious
i'd like to know how many deshies will listen and act per him?

However, senior strategic analyst K Subrahamanayam doesn't think the current issue is so important. He feels that in the past, China had done far more serious things, which have not been in India's interests, and the US has looked the other way. India didn't raise any objections then, so why complain over a relatively small matter now, says Subrahamanayam.

"China has been intervening in India-Pakistan affairs since 1965. It intervened in 1971. It armed Pakistan with nuclear weapons and missiles in the 1980s and 1990s.The US looked away. China conducted a nuclear test for Pakistan on May 26, 1990. Eighty per cent of Pakistani weapons are procured from China. India has been keeping mum over all these developments all these years. Making a song and dance over the relatively mild reference at this stage appears to be a case of making a mountain out of a molehill," says Subrahamanayam.

In policy it is a matter of right and wrong. Not good and bad.

He is rightly pointing out that India has no consistency - of course, the opposite is true - India has been consistent in not doing anything.

This situation has been very predictable.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 20 Nov 2009 23:38

In an interview with Newsweek-Washington Post in New Delhi ahead of his state visit to the US..
.. Tell Pakistan not to use terror as state policy: Manmohan Singh to US

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 Nov 2009 23:39

SaiK wrote:
RaviBg wrote:Obama 'shocker' leaves New Delhi confused, suspicious
i'd like to know how many deshies will listen and act per him?

However, senior strategic analyst K Subrahamanayam doesn't think the current issue is so important. He feels that in the past, China had done far more serious things, which have not been in India's interests, and the US has looked the other way. India didn't raise any objections then, so why complain over a relatively small matter now, says Subrahamanayam.

"China has been intervening in India-Pakistan affairs since 1965. It intervened in 1971. It armed Pakistan with nuclear weapons and missiles in the 1980s and 1990s.The US looked away. China conducted a nuclear test for Pakistan on May 26, 1990. Eighty per cent of Pakistani weapons are procured from China. India has been keeping mum over all these developments all these years. Making a song and dance over the relatively mild reference at this stage appears to be a case of making a mountain out of a molehill," says Subrahamanayam.

What KS garu is saying is stay focussed and dont cut of your nose to spite yourself now. Being quiet all these years no need to score self goals and kick any chances of getting out of the controls regime imposed by US. Its also a comedown for US to agree to PRC having a role in South Asia. That means they are facing some heat on geopolitical front in addtion to employment front at home in US.

All studies of the Great Depression show that it was the emploment generation during WWII that pulled the US out of the misery. So if MMS can ease trade controls and allow the US to sell its goods that creates jobs for the US and capability for India. Currently the US cant sell to India because of its own policy of cutting the branch they are sitting on. They could do that for there were an economic, military and political power. Now they are weak on all those fronts. Time to get what India needs is now, not when the have recovered.

I am convinced the inclusion of China in the Joint statment is an Af-Pak blowback(Holebrooke's machinations) and shows bankruptcy of the policy. Af-pak will collapse in two years max. If India can stabilize Karzai then the blowback will be in TSP.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 20 Nov 2009 23:41

V nicely put, Ramana garu. Moi sees the light in that line of thinking.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 Nov 2009 23:45

Hari, I knew you would.

My advise to all . Everything is maya if you get stuck at 1000 feet level. Things gain clarity at 100,000 feet level as you can spot even small moves.

And folks like KS have spent a lifetime fighting for the idea of India and have their eyes firmly on the "tryst with destiny" mission.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 20 Nov 2009 23:47

Some of the confirmed guests are predictable. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, but not President Clinton, will be there, as will Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Energy Secretary Stephen Chu. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi snagged an invitation. Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, a Republican of Indian descent, will be there. He was invited when President George W. Bush hosted India for a state dinner in 2005.

From Boston Globe:
Link
And Marcus Samuelsson ( of Aquavit restaurant in New York ) will be the chef.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 21 Nov 2009 02:35

May be interest to some ..
From Duke University...
Duke University and Jubilant Organosys Announce Intent to Enter Global Research and Drug Development Partnership

New Delhi, India -- Duke University and Jubilant Organosys Limited, the largest integrated custom research and manufacturing services (CRAMS) and leading drug discovery and development services (DDDS) company in India, through its subsidiary, Jubilant Biosys Limited and Jubilant First Trust Healthcare Limited, today signed a letter of intent to develop a multi-faceted partnership that will expedite translation of discoveries by Duke scientists into clinical therapies.

Chandra · Post by **Chandra** » 21 Nov 2009 02:41

MMS Interview in Washington Post:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 66_pf.html

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 21 Nov 2009 02:57

^^^^ Also from the WP:
Indian officials wary after perceived White House slights

Days before India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is to be welcomed in the White House for his first state visit with President Obama, two perceived missteps by the Obama administration have concerned Indian officials that New Delhi suddenly has been relegated to the second tier of U.S.-Asian relations.
...Indian officials note that in a speech on U.S. relations in Asia, President Obama did not mention India. ...Indian officials have also raised concerns that in a joint statement issued by the United States and China on Tuesday, Obama appeared to open the door for Beijing to act as a mediator of sorts in the long-term competition between India and Pakistan.

...The froth and boil of the moment notwithstanding, the U.S.-India relationship that I know is a totally transformed creature," said Frank Wisner, who served as ambassador from 1994 to 1997. He remembers a visit by then-Prime Minister P. V. Narasimha Rao in May 1994 with President Clinton in Washington, when "about the only thing he and Rao had to talk about was almonds." Today Indian investment in the United States is over $11 billion, and two-way trade has more than doubled to $80 billion over the past decade. India has more students in the United States than any other country, and the United States hands out more visas for highly skilled workers to India than any other country. Intelligence cooperation, spurred by the Mumbai terrorist attacks last year, occurs on a "daily, monthly and weekly basis," U.S. Ambassador to India Timothy Roemer told reporters Wednesday.

Clinton's efforts appear to have been forgotten in light of Obama's Asia trip. C. Raja Mohan, a Washington-based columnist for the Indian Express, said he was actually glad the controversy had ignited before Singh's visit.

"It gives us a chance to address this issue honestly and openly," he said.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 21 Nov 2009 03:05

AmberG,

Sir, you are apologist for the current administration and become a some sort of cheer leader. You are unable to see the impact of foreign policy and turn the other way. As Ramanaji has stated, look at this from 10,000 ft, not 1000 ft if you wish to see the big picture; rather than just looking at domestic US policy.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 21 Nov 2009 03:16

Amber G. wrote:^^^^ Also from the WP:
Today Indian investment in the United States is over $11 billion, and two-way trade has more than doubled to $80 billion over the past decade. India has more students in the United States than any other country, and the United States hands out more visas for highly skilled workers to India than any other country. Intelligence cooperation, spurred by the Mumbai terrorist attacks last year, occurs on a "daily, monthly and weekly basis," U.S. Ambassador to India Timothy Roemer told reporters Wednesday.

This is absolutely false. US-India trade is less than $45 billion a year from US Dept. of Commerce statistics. Also, the Ombaba administration has drastically curtailed skilled worker visas from India. Where did the WP get their info?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 Nov 2009 03:19

Mort ji And AmberG, I request you both to not reply to each other atleast till the visit is over. Its very distracting. A lot is riding on the vist and we need to focus instead of to and froing. Everyone knows each others positions and doesnt help any more. After that you may resume.

Thanks, ramana

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 21 Nov 2009 03:27

Ramanaji,

I can no longer find the ignore button and wish I could, perhaps I'm missing it. In any case you are correct, I will not respond to others unsolicited attacks. I will post links to news sources about the MMS visit.
The invitees to the state (official) dinner are around 400 and it will be part of public record before the event and perhaps we can have a list of the significant attendees.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 21 Nov 2009 03:29

but but, don't we want af-pak strategies to continue more than that period? for our benefits.. i am sure, we have enough to point for that.

some huge billions $$$ can definitely save our blood in mumbai or akshardam places of the future attacks.

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 21 Nov 2009 03:30

Govt doesn't expect any big-ticket gains from PM's visit to US

The government does not expect Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s first state visit to post-Bush US to yield “big-ticket” gains as it is aimed at “sizing up” the Democratic dispensation in Washington and striking the right chords with President Barack Obama.
...
...
The government seems keen to keep expectations in check, perhaps in view of the high of the nuclear deal now having abated. In fact, it is felt that with the passage of the civil nuclear liability bill, India would have fulfilled most of its commitments. It would be in the interest of US business if there was progress on any pending issues. The view in government is that issues like the US-China joint statement which made a reference to India-Pakistan ties are not expected to be a hurdle.
...
...

bchatnani · Post by **bchatnani** » 21 Nov 2009 03:45

Why Barack Obama and Manmohan Singh should say as little as possible when they meet in Washington next week.

Beijing is watching Washington's blossoming relationship with New Delhi with greater interest than ever before. Many within the Chinese Communist Party and the Peoples' Liberation Army desperately want irrefutable and public evidence that the U.S.-India relationship is a provocative one designed to prevent China from rising. This would provide Beijing with a convenient opening to justify its rapid military buildup, not to mention an excuse to escalate border tensions with New Delhi. When Obama and Singh emerge from the White House doors to give their public remarks, they should ensure that no such excuse becomes available.

Just cliche platitudes should be expected from the Manmohan-Obama meeting

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 21 Nov 2009 03:51

dont be surprised if mms sends troops to afghan as headings .. and then corrections to that saying they would be mufties... and we are still continuing those infratructure and other projects.

nothing to hurt china!

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 21 Nov 2009 03:53

Mort Walker wrote:AmberG,

Sir, you are apologist for the current administration and become a some sort of cheer leader. You are unable to see the impact of foreign policy and turn the other way. ..<snip>.

Yes Mortji, not only apologist but one with "blood of all Indians on my hand" and what not. You have right to your opinion, of course, and I give all the respect it deserve. ..but what can you do, as you said, only thing left for you is wait and hope that all nasty things like "11% unemployment" (your words) happen to US.

Yes, I can live with your criticism (as much as Zaid hamid's one).. just wanted to let people know that you don't speak for me (or most of the Indians or Americans, for that matter)
Cheers.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 21 Nov 2009 04:03

Ramana - I did not see your message.. I am letting the earlier message stay.. If you want to edit/delete please go ahead.

I for one, find that the whole tone from Mort Walker and some other posters have been very inappropriate and hostile to other view points.. (eg SwamG's messages etc) .. I have been ignoring that for quite some time, hoping that it will stop, but it really does not server India/US relationship by constantly channeling some views which, up to keep on mispelling Obama's name frankly, mainstream Indians find distasteful....

I don't know if that matters, but if folks like to check, I have NOT addressed any messages to Mort Walker (even after two unprovoked personal attacks aimed to me) till my last message... I intend to, and will ignore such messages unless it is relevant.

Also folks - can one please stop using churlish form of spelling when mentioning MMS or Obama..

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 21 Nov 2009 04:08

MW, Wisner might be taking business figures from both Commodity as well Service sector.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 21 Nov 2009 04:11

AmberG,

I suggest you take heed of Ramanaji's requests and we can take this up at another time. Lets focus on the MMS visit.

I will say that the visit will get attention in the US from the right, who hate everything about Ombaba, to the left which adores him and will pay more attention to the dinner itself and less on the substance.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 21 Nov 2009 04:26

Prem wrote:MW, Wisner might be taking business figures from both Commodity as well Service sector.

I'll have to look in to that, but IIRC, the $80 billion ball park was talked about a decade earlier and clearly we haven't got there yet. Maybe Wisner is quoting projections. Earlier in this thread I posted the US Dept. of Commerce link for 2-way trade. My opinion is, if the $80 billion is correct, then comments about India from Beijing would not have happened or have been more watered down.

I would suggest to see if Timothy Geithner will meet MMS and advisers for fear of India setting off a trend of large central banks diversifying their forex holdings of US dollars. The recent gold purchase by India may have quietly caused some concern.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 21 Nov 2009 04:29

I think we missed this one:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2009/11/ ... ia-jobs-us

Anurag · Post by **Anurag** » 21 Nov 2009 04:31

http://carnegieendowment.org/events/?fa ... il&id=1489

100 minute video

U.S.–India Relations on the Eve of Singh’s Visit
George Perkovich, Ashley J. Tellis, William Burns, Evan Feigenbaum, C. Raja Mohan, Teresita Schaffer

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 21 Nov 2009 04:38

Steven Chu, is one of the invitee for MMS state dinner.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 21 Nov 2009 04:58

Well, I didn't see much, really nothing, of Chu's mention of nuclear power or trade of goods and services related to the generation of nuclear power for India. Lets see what happens at or after the visit, as I'm sure MMS's staff will want to bring up the issue of operationalizing the US-India nuclear agreement.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 21 Nov 2009 05:40

Another interesting article:
http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts ... ak_preview

Underlying the dynamic is a sense that the Ombaba administration has yet to really commit to a real plan for advancing the U.S.-India relationship. A State Department review is ongoing.

Umrao Das · Post by **Umrao Das** » 21 Nov 2009 06:07

{deleted}

ramana

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 21 Nov 2009 06:40

negi wrote:^ What nonsense if someone messed up or did not act in the past does that mean it be continued and adhered to in the future ? I say our strategic analysts give likes of Zaid and Gul a run for their money.

But this is a trope that runs through most of our security narratives; in this "we are like this only."

S.Gautam · Post by **S.Gautam** » 21 Nov 2009 07:03

but it really does not server India/US relationship by constantly channeling some views which, up to keep on mispelling Obama's name frankly, mainstream Indians find distasteful....

Now why assume all of us want to serve India-US relationship? I, for one, would like for it to deteriorate to nothing outside of trade. The U.S. does not have one single ally IMHO - only whores and lapdogs (corresponding, respectively, to those who serve the U.S. for money/protection and those that are 51st state types e.g. UK/Australia). While clever maneuvering could save us, I don't enough faith in GoI's competence or ability to prevent India from becoming another one. Ergo, this "relationship" ought to be minimized for the time being (until we have greater parity or an IG-type leader). By the looks of it (sub 50% in Gallup today), you should get used to the Obama name calling as mainstream Americans become more like Mort (perhaps he's just ahead of the curve

).

Underlying the dynamic is a sense that the Ombaba administration has yet to really commit to a real plan for advancing the U.S.-India relationship. A State Department review is ongoing.

One of the reasons I prefer the Obama administration being in place - it's always calling summits, creating ad hoc positions, having dinners, making speeches, and hosting other PR stunts. Things that make it look good in the media and is "safe" - but causes no real changes (or damage, depending on one's point of view). This, I think, protects India a bit from him and the U.S. as we don't have to worry about much more than words.

Is anyone familiar with the state of that climate bill in the U.S. legislature? IIRC it was stalling somewhere. How that fares will determine how much moral high ground the U.S. does/doesn't have in demanding cuts in Copenhagen.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 21 Nov 2009 09:48

just an admin note since I don't moderate/participate in this thread.

to this report :

Ombama is unappropiate

admins agree that this is a harmless play on words at the same level as amritraj, amir khan, oirope etc and not inappropriate as such.

-----------

I can no longer find the ignore button and wish I could

mort ji, the ignore user option can be accessed from the user ctrl panel --> Board preferences --> Friends & Foes

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 21 Nov 2009 10:14

ot/ I have no foes at all. I think its our in culture we take serious offense on name calling on forums.. though I am not very correct.. amrikhan culture allows even the prez to be spoken about freely.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 21 Nov 2009 10:16

RahulM,

Thanks for the tip, I hadn't used the User Control Panel in quite a while. Will do so now to avoid unnecessary clutter in this thread.

Dhiman · Post by **Dhiman** » 21 Nov 2009 10:57

SaiK wrote:dont be surprised if mms sends troops to afghan as headings .. and then corrections to that saying they would be mufties... and we are still continuing those infratructure and other projects.

nothing to hurt china!

Afghanistan is the most critical security issue for India. If US withdraws from Afghanistan, India will have no option but to send troops there.

Avinash R · Post by **Avinash R** » 21 Nov 2009 12:25

Indian security officers trained on preventing terror attack
Hyderabad, November 21, 2009

Select officers from Indian security agencies today completed a two-week training course at the National Industrial Security Academy (NISA) on preventing terrorist attacks conducted by American trainers.

A batch of officers from National Security Guards (NSG), Central Industrial Security Force (CISF) and Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) and others were trained on preventing terrorist attacks on soft targets, a release from the US Consulate in Hyderabad said.

The American trainers used a combination of lectures, case studies, practical and field exercises to introduce the participants to responding to terrorist attacks on soft targets during the two-week training course held between November 9 and 20 at NISA here.

"This training represents the commitment of the United States and India to coordinate on counter terrorism efforts, including intelligence and law enforcement. Increased training is a component of this commitment," the release said.

The US Consul General Cornelis Keur distributed certificates of completion to the 12 Indian security officials at a function today.

India attaches high priority to its ties with US: PM
New Delhi, November 21, 2009

As he prepares to meet President Barack Obama in Washington, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Saturday said a "sustained and dynamic" Indo-US partnership is essential to meet major global challenges like international terrorism, climate change and economic slowdown.

Singh, who will hold wide-ranging talks with Obama on Tuesday, said India attaches "high priority" to its relations with the US which is today characterized by "greater maturity, depth and convergence of interests".

In a departure statement, Singh said he looked forward to building upon this momentum during the nine-day visit that would also take him to Trinidad and Tobago for the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM).

"The last several years have witnessed a transformation in India-US relations", he said.

Singh, the first foreign leader to be hosted as State Guest by the 10-month-old Obama Administration, has a hectic schedule during his four-day stay in Washington.

His engagements include addressing the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and business leaders of the two countries besides receiving some top US officials.

"A sustained and dynamic India-US partnership is essential if we are to meet the global challenges of the 21 century", Singh said.

The Prime Minister said he looked forward to exchanging views with Obama on major global threats and challenges such as international terrorism, climate change, global economic slowdown, the Doha Round of trade negotiations and nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation.

The situation in Afghanistan and other regional issues are also expected to figure during his talks with the US leadership, the Prime Minister said.

Terrorism emanating from Pakistan is expected to be high on agenda of the Singh-Obama talks.

The two sides are likely to sign an MoU on counter- terrorism that will provide a framework for institutionalised cooperation particularly in intelligence sharing, sources said.

The two countries are also expected to ink MoUs in renewable energy, IPR in agriculture and announce Singh-Obama Knowledge Initiative.

Certain issues that are holding up implementation of the landmark civil nuclear agreement may take some more time though officials from the two countries are trying to iron out the creases before the two leaders meet.

Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao said both the governments are fully committed to implementing the historic pact which offers immense benefits for India and opens business opportunities for the US.

At the bilateral levels, India looked forward to building upon the Strategic Dialogue by adding greater substance to cooperation in areas such as trade and investment, services, energy, science and technology, defence, high technology trade, education, agriculture and health, he said.

Singh is accompanied by Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia.

The Prime Minister said the bilateral agenda with the US covered almost all areas of human endeavour. He noted that US is India's largest trading partner in goods and services.

There is a large Indian American community and robust people-to-people exchanges, he said adding "above all, we share common values and commitment to democracy, pluralism and human rights".

During the visit, the Prime Minister said he would be meeting senior members of the US Cabinet, Senators and Congressmen.

He would also attend a business event jointly hosted by the US Chamber of Commerce and the US-India Business Council where members of the India-US CEOs Forum would also be present.

Singh said he would address the Council of Foreign Relations and Woodrow Wilson Centre, where he looked forward to interacting with leading American opinion makers of the US.

He would also meet members of the Indian American community who are playing an important role in fostering closer ties between the two countries.

Singh and Obama will also discuss issues like UN reforms in the backdrop of the recent statement by the world body that the new permanent members of the expanded council should be chosen by name rather than regions.

In the second leg of the tour, Singh will travel to Port of Spain, the capital of Trinidad and Tobago, for CHOGM, where he will exchange views on pressing global issues like climate change and terrorism.

Singh said India attaches "high importance" to the role of the Commonwealth in promoting cooperation amongst its members and in engaging the world in shaping a cooperative, equitable and development-friendly world order.

The theme for CHOGM-2009 is Partnering for a More Equitable and Sustainable Future.

"I look forward to a wide-ranging exchange of views with other leaders on how we can address the challenge of climate change, which is a matter of particular concern to developing countries, small states and vulnerable states", Singh said.

ashkrishna · Post by **ashkrishna** » 21 Nov 2009 15:35

India gets wary of Obama-TOI

As Manmohan Singh heads to Washington this weekend for a state visit with Obama, capping a week of US-Asia engagement, it is becoming increasingly obvious that something is amiss in Indo-US relations . Somewhere, it would appear, the growing mutual faith, fostered by the much-maligned George Bush Jr and Manmohan Singh, seems to be chipping at the edges. The meeting in Washington could make the growing edginess apparent. There will, no doubt, be an accumulation of many small ideas - agriculture , education, technology, climate change, business , counter-terrorism , and so on - which would be cemented by the good personal chemistry between Manmohan Singh and Obama at the summit. But would it all add to the big picture that was emerging between the two biggest democracies of the world?

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 21 Nov 2009 22:07

Link to Newsweek's MMS Interview:
In the Eye of the Storm
(Seem to be less edited version than one posted earlier from WP)

KaranR · Post by **KaranR** » 22 Nov 2009 00:37

http://www.newsweek.com/id/223794
Fareed Zakaria
The Prize is India
A relationship Obama should nurture.

The Indian government's aid to Afghanistan has mostly gone to build schools and infrastructure. And while New Delhi is trying to gain influence with the Kabul government, U.S. officials tell me that Indian intelligence has limited operations in Afghanistan. America can't and should not want India to banish itself from its own subcontinent. In fact, India's objectives are exactly aligned with America's—to defeat the Taliban and to support the elected Afghan government.

Pakistan's objectives, on the other hand, are not the same as Washington's. Islamabad has long argued that it has a right to see a pro-Pakistani government in Afghanistan. Asia expert Selig Harrison has noted that in an interview with him in 1988, Pakistan's President Zia ul-Haq demanded "a regime to our liking" in Kabul. Last year a Pakistani general told the director of national intelligence that Pakistan had to support the Taliban in Afghanistan, "otherwise India will reign." Having created the Afghan Taliban, Pakistan has still not taken any steps to dismantle it. Even now, while attacking the Pakistani Taliban in South Waziristan, it has not disturbed the leadership of the Afghan Taliban in Baluchistan

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 22 Nov 2009 01:28

^^^ from above:

....That's unlikely to happen while Pakistan refuses to go after the terror group that also planned the Mumbai attacks, Lashkar-e-Taiba.

Generals like McChrystal—no matter how smart or tough—should not make policy, because they confuse the imperatives of the battlefield with a broader view. Obama must keep in mind that South Asia is a tar pit filled with failed and dysfunctional states, save for one long-established democracy of 1.2 billion people that is the second-fastest-growing major economy in the world, a check on China's rising ambitions, and a natural ally of the United States. The prize is the relationship with India. The booby prize is governing Afghanistan.