Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 22 Nov 2009 05:17

Chiron wrote:
Battle of Bahraich - 14th June 1033

One instance when this meme was successfully buried in the fields of the very doab we are concerned with...

Could history be repeating itself?

I posted following in music thread.

Sri Goswami Tulsidas on the Gandhian practices of his time[\b]

लही आँखि कब आँधरे बाँझ पूत कब ल्याइ ।
कब कोढ़ी काया लही जग बहराइच जाइ ॥
--Dohavali

(When did a blind person regained his eye sight?, when did a barren woman got son?. And when a leper
was cured for his leprosy and got his beautiful body back?. But even then people visit Baharaich.

Now why people (Mostly Hindus which put Tulsidas in great peeve) used to visit Baharaich, even now in present day.

Quote:
We have an account of this war from an Islamic scholar Sheikh Abdur Rehman Chishti who in his book Meer-ul-Masuri has given a vivid description of this exceptional war. He writes that Masud reached Baharaich in 1033. By then the united Hindu kings had gathered a massive force to face Masud.

As was their practice, before the beginning of hostilities, the Hindu kings sent a messenger to Masud that this land being theirs, his troops should peacefully vacate it. But Masud sent a reply that all land belonged to Khuda (the Persianized version of Allah) and he could settle wherever he pleased. And that it was his holy duty to convert to Islam all those who did not recognize his Khuda and accept Islam.

Consequently, Masud's huge army was besieged by the even greater Hindu army and no side gave the other any quarter. Gradually through the hostilities, Masud saw the unsuccessful end of his expedition. This bitter and bloody war was fought in the month of June 1033. In this furious war, no side took any prisoners and it ended only with the slaughter of the entire invading army along with many martyrs from the defending Hindu army.

The battle of Baharaich ended on 14th June 1033. At the gory end, the entire invading army along with their commander lay dead. Not one enemy soldier was allowed to return. There still exists today near Baharaich the grave of the commander of the invader - Prince Ghazi Mian Masud. There he is hailed today by the local Muslims as a Ghazi and a Peer. And every year till this day an Urs (Muslim religious assemblage) is held in his memory.
His tomb was built much later by Tughlaq. After establishing his rule Feroz Shah Tughlaq came to Bahraich and became so offended after learning about the beheading of Salar Masood Ghazi. He was termed as Islamic Saint who came in early 11th century to the Indian subcontinent for preaching Islam.
Retrieved from "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghazi_Saiyyad_Salar_Masud"

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... a&start=80

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 22 Nov 2009 19:45

Scenario building..

1. USA decides to withdraw from Pashtun areas with good-taliban made in-charge. The west won't leave AFG but limit themselves along urban areas and non-tribal areas. For the conduit of goods through the khyber, west will strike a deal with TSPA - by 2014-2016.

2. As 2015 nears, India's energy crunch starts pinching slightly more.

3. Nepal is total state of disarray.. The maoists of Nepal formally link up with PRC.

4. India tries to capture PoK after another attempted "Kargil" by TSPA or PLA (along aksai chin).. heavy casualties, long drawn war.. large part of army blocked in northern sector to recapture PoK and avoid capture of Ladakh and Siachin from PRC..remaining sections of army on Indo-Pak border and Indo-chinese border of NEFA can't move away much due to ongoing border skirmishes with PLA in NEFA, Sikkim and Uttaranchal.. (somewhere between 2018-2022)

5. Internal network of ISI and PRC (Maoists of the red corridor) is by now totally linked up and jointly activated for inflicting maximum damage on India.. Active logistical supply from Nepal, BD...

6. Something mischievous happens in NI and communal tensions rise. The mischief monger can either by VHP (ram-mandir or any other issue) OR Deoband and sister organisations (some outrageous appeal, fatwa, statement, action which instigates abduls) OR both (something similar to Godhra-Gujarat, may be). With army preoccupied on frontiers, and paramilitary preoccupied with taking care of maoist scum, the police force might not be totally in control of situations.. The tensions rise along the valley of Ganga..

7. Myanmar signs a defence alliance with PRC and allows chinese troops to move through its territory.. So does BD.. India's progress in PoK is slow and steady and extremely expensive in terms of money and lives, inspite of all the precision guided brahmos-2 and other state of the art weapons.

8. PLAN makes its move and one OR two carrier fleets cross malacca.. naval-engagements near Andamans.. india decides to hit china back and crosses malacca.. All the trade routes to China blockaded by IN. Border skirmishes along NEFA and Myanmar borders. The PRC-Myanmar-BD pact becomes the actual pain in the a$$ for Bhaarat as PRC troops now slowly start gathering in Khulna and Sylhet..

.........................................................................

I leave the scenario here.. This is a vague outline of what might happen. I am not that great in lucid scenario building like Shankarowsky OR Dileep saar, but on strategic level, things might turn out this way.. Once India commits itself for conquest of PoK, India will not stop unless the objective is complete, whatever might be the cost. direct land access to CAR will be matter of life and death for India 2030 onwards..

What role will west play? Given the informal G2 agreement with Asia for PRC and EU and Americas for USA (sans Ribbentrap-Molotov pact)

Will and can Russia play any role here? India will keep the war strictly conventional probably by not opening fronts in Punjab OR Sindh. I am not sure how much in Indian orbit Baluchistan liberation army is now...Same goes for Iran... Of course pakis will be blockaded by IN long before and their navy destroyed..

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 22 Nov 2009 19:46

An interesting angle has been made by the CM of Assam in the context of the blasts. He indicates the possibility of ULFA shifting or seeking base in China. However, such a move by the PRC can be a good tactic of dealing with its ambitions over Arunachal Pradesh. Even if ULFA seeks base in China, that need not mean that they are being really hard pressed or forced out of BD. The relative loss of base in Bhutan actually shrank their flexibility of geo-political moves. So a new extension is needed to keep the supply lines open from PRC.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 22 Nov 2009 19:58

We assure a fading USA+UK access to CAR through territories currently occupied by the GOTSP. In return they do not intervene in India removing TSP from existence and incorporating its peoples and lands as provinces of India. Russia is similarly guranteed access to IOR through the KKH, which now comes under India, if it does not intervene in Indian moves into Sinkiang and Tibet. East Turkmenistanis are promised an independent nation if they cede a permanent corridor bypassing AFG into CAR. Both Tibet and Sinkiang to be promoted into independent nations.

The PRC problem can only be tackled if IN moves out into the Pacific, forms naval alliances with Japan and Vietnam and Indonesia, and clears the IOR of potential intervention threats. This means some kind of dual control/presence in bases currently held by the "west" as part of the "TSP" deal.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 22 Nov 2009 20:09

brihaspati wrote:We assure a fading USA+UK access to CAR through territories currently occupied by the GOTSP. In return they do not intervene in India removing TSP from existence and incorporating its peoples and lands as provinces of India. Russia is similarly guranteed access to IOR through the KKH, which now comes under India, if it does not intervene in Indian moves into Sinkiang and Tibet. East Turkmenistanis are promised an independent nation if they cede a permanent corridor bypassing AFG into CAR. Both Tibet and Sinkiang to be promoted into independent nations.

The PRC problem can only be tackled if IN moves out into the Pacific, forms naval alliances with Japan and Vietnam and Indonesia, and clears the IOR of potential intervention threats. This means some kind of dual control/presence in bases currently held by the "west" as part of the "TSP" deal.

Although Gandhis are sympathetic towards west, they won't GUBO for west like TSPA does. Why should west settle for anything less than a GUBO, hain ji? they already have the best deal, once good taliban takes the reign.. Why should west facilitate India's rise? It is common-sense that India with TSP eliminated will demand larger share of pie and will grow increasingly strong to challenge the west. This is something west won't allow as they are smart enough to see the aspirations of yindoos.. If BJP or some centre-right party is in power, then it is further more difficult for them to be West beneficiaries. The Nehru-Gandhi dynasty is perfect bet for the west for "some" influence on internal Indian politics. National parties (INC, BJP) will never be total sell-outs (like TSPA). Small local feudal lords will easily sell out their integrity and nation.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 22 Nov 2009 21:47

Compare the costs of maintaining a TSP and expending "our boys" in propping up an icreasingly costly Jihad, AFPAK. The accommodating and fractious "Hindu" can always guarantee at least one group willing to bend over backwards to accommodate "western interests". Moreover the "our boys' and investment for developments, costs can be shifted on to "Indians".

Agree - its a hard sell. But dont we need to isolate our enemies one at a time?

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 22 Nov 2009 21:56

gandharva wrote: Battle of Bahraich - 14th June 1033

One instance when this meme was successfully buried in the fields of the very doab we are concerned with...

Could history be repeating itself?

[/quote]

These were the Bharat Rakshaks of yore. Past, present and future come together and their ghosts wait for us to wake up and avenge their deaths

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 24 Nov 2009 00:38

Brihaspati, Chiron and co,
Who in our current political structure represents members of the salaariat? There are some in the inner circle of this admin who weild a lot of power and are key decision makers (it might explain why some decisions such as quota etc are being made). Ahmed Patel comes to mind.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 24 Nov 2009 00:58

Better to perhaps avoid discussing individuals. Most things about individuals which can be really relevant for such discussions are very hard to put down on paper.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 24 Nov 2009 03:14

More on HArit Pradesh from an excellent blog

http://satyameva-jayate.org/2009/11/17/harit-desh/
http://satyameva-jayate.org/2009/11/24/harit-desh-2/

Please read the links

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 24 Nov 2009 03:19

Anantnag in Kashmir was recently remaned Islamabad

Ananya · Post by **Ananya** » 24 Nov 2009 03:43

in the scenarious posted above IA would loose to a wave of TALIBS if they number around 500,000 and 250,000 each from nepal and Arunachal simetaneously.

1. The strategy would be to divide kash between prc and tsp
2. NE to PRC as that is rich in natural reources

PRC's strategy would to have an access from the Bay of bengal to Bejing

i am not sure if that is Gazhwa-e-hind but that would be the calculations. Unkil will be a silent watcher as they would want both PRC and India to colapse as they never would alow any country to stand up to them and allow them to destroy them selves, they are nurtered to be destroyed a typical Mason theroy.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 24 Nov 2009 03:50

I am telling - no names mentioned as Brihpti suggested, but the very top rungs of our govt are not acting in our interests. Since 2004 things have deteriorated rapaidly

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 24 Nov 2009 09:54

Jarita wrote:I am telling - no names mentioned as Brihpti suggested, but the very top rungs of our govt are not acting in our interests. Since 2004 things have deteriorated rapaidly

It's fine to explore those lines of thought but try to be skeptical and rigorous. Otherwise one ends up shooting oneself in the foot.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 24 Nov 2009 10:05

Ananya wrote:in the scenarious posted above IA would loose to a wave of TALIBS if they number around 500,000 and 250,000 each from nepal and Arunachal simetaneously.

1. The strategy would be to divide kash between prc and tsp
2. NE to PRC as that is rich in natural reources

PRC's strategy would to have an access from the Bay of bengal to Bejing

i am not sure if that is Gazhwa-e-hind but that would be the calculations. Unkil will be a silent watcher as they would want both PRC and India to colapse as they never would alow any country to stand up to them and allow them to destroy them selves, they are nurtered to be destroyed a typical Mason theroy.

Unkil might help elephant out in IOR and/or pacific... but the land confrontations, elephant will have to fight on its own.. The last minute technical assistance to IA is of no use as it takes time to operationalize the new-technology..

The sample population is too big in NI belt and if it is in state of communal instabilities, no foreign army would like to venture in that territory.. Shite will hit the fan, if some foreign army attempts that, however friendly.... The abduls from pure-land will definitely try to spill over to help their brethren in NI plains... Its difficult to cross the barricade of Indian army on the borders.. the situation is too dynamic to be predictable.. The relentless pressure on IA to repel the waves of abduls will takes its toll..

I remember one such scenario in distant past..

King Khinkhil of Huns invade India when emperor Kumaragupta (son of Chandragupta Vikramaditya) is reigning in the Gupta golden age of Bhaarat. The old emperor dispatched his young and brave son, Skandagupta, to repel the waves of marauding Huns.. Skandagupta successfully does that.. India becomes one of the few nations to have repelled the Hunnic invasion wave (romans and Chinese fell)..

40 years later, Huns gather again under King Toramaana and invade India.. Skandagupta is now an old emperor, although with an iron grip over Bhaarat. The old man himself moves his base from ujjain to NWFP to fight off the Hunnic invaders.. He dies on frontier like common soldier, instead of comforts of capital.. however meanwhile, gupta-empire is consumed with infighting.. Skandagupta has to ignore this ongoing civil war with Puragupta (suitor for throne) since he thinks his first duty is to fight off the foreigners.. The infighting and civil war takes toll..

Within year of death of Skandagupta in India's NWFP (somewhere around Peshawar or Banks of Indus), takshashila university is destroyed and entire North india is overrun by Hunnic king Toramaana.. his son, Mihiragula who is even more braver than his father, by now has converted to worshipper of Rudra and starts conquering and persecuting buddhists in NI plains.

Within few years, the kings immediately to the south of Vindhya form a grand alliance under Raja Yashodharma of Malwa and defeats Hunnic force in 2 or 3 decisive battles.. Mihirgula is captured alive, but at the behest of Baladitya (a gupta king and grand son of Skandagupta who has become Buddhist) Yashodharma is forced to pardon captured mihiragula..

Mihiragula then moved to Kashmir, established his kingdom there, remained confined there and kept of persecuting buddhists till he died his natural death.. meanwhile, the Indus and Gangetic plains are consolidated by Indic kings, although nothing even closely similar to glory, power and magnificence of Gupta empire..

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 24 Nov 2009 20:43

The opening salvos from both MMSji and Mr. President are very very cautious. This means either the basic negotiations and concessions have been discussed already between PRC and USA, but with only broad or general agreements. The concrete timeline, specifics of proposals that will not politically jeopardize the Congress, will have to be shelved for the moment until the broad strategic and tactical demands of all the "parties" concerned are addressed.

The other possibility is that both PRC and USA already realize that the actual ground situation in northern TSP and southern AFG is slipping out of their hands. I would see a tri-partite stalemate between USA+TSP+India for the moment. All the while, the states-within-states in AFPAK work on according to their long term agenda.

Ananya · Post by **Ananya** » 24 Nov 2009 20:54

I see you point , but the main objectives of PRC would be to criple and not rule. because they need a state like vietnam, burma and Thailand where they are indirect rulers . TSP would be given a liverage to Hind and open up a front ,wherein energy and Gas flows. PRC'c main objectives would be to use TSP to their advantage and they would have no problems with dealing with abduls there, To cripple India would be the primary objective here

Ananya · Post by **Ananya** » 24 Nov 2009 20:58

brihaspati wrote:The opening salvos from both MMSji and Mr. President are very very cautious. This means either the basic negotiations and concessions have been discussed already between PRC and USA, but with only broad or general agreements. The concrete timeline, specifics of proposals that will not politically jeopardize the Congress, will have to be shelved for the moment until the broad strategic and tactical demands of all the "parties" concerned are addressed.

The other possibility is that both PRC and USA already realize that the actual ground situation in northern TSP and southern AFG is slipping out of their hands. I would see a tri-partite stalemate between USA+TSP+India for the moment. All the while, the states-within-states in AFPAK work on according to their long term agenda.

I agree indeed, the basics have been discussed and PRC and US would have devided the ruls of the game for some time but would expect India and Russia to tow the lines , Russia and India would have also have their course charted out so MMS is confident abt that , atleast from the interviews given in the last two days

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 24 Nov 2009 21:11

PRC's basic strategic interest is to push India away from Tibet. This is why they activated Nepal, and are maintaining the pressure on the two endpoints of the pan Tibetan arc - POK in the north, and AP in the east. They already have sufficient military control and potential penetration into Northern India using the KKH and POK/NA. What they want to do now is to rollback USA from northern TSP to secure the northern flank. Moreover, they want greater presence in NA to control any possible support to the Uighurs from the Jihadis. Having started the sponsoring of Jihad-game, PRC can no longer unmount its steed.

It will covertly support TSP demands for formal handing over of "Kashmir", and use that as a bargaining point both with USA and India. TSP will use the same to extract from both PRC and USA - threatening siding with one to gain from the other. USA will use the same possibility as bargaining point with India to allow concessions. USA needs to save its flanks from AFG theatre until it can retreat with good face. All of this means stalemate. Congress is very cautious about appearing to give in to Islamism - that may politically backfire. Also allowing any escalation of TSP activity into "Kashmir" may actually publicly highlight the basic Islamic motivation driving the TSP fanaticism - again politically dangerous. Any miscalculation here can wipe off the Congress with no hopes of return.

So all non-TSP parties here will try to tacitly accept stalemate as an interim solution. However Jihad is getting out of control of both PRC and USA. So any stalemate could be seen as maddeningly frustrating by TSPA+Talebjabis and jihad taken forward.

Ananya · Post by **Ananya** » 24 Nov 2009 21:44

i have different point , the fundametal ideals of the MAO patry would be in shables , if they see a democratic , un-autocratic growth and eventhough there is chaos , things are growing and people are becoming rich in their own back yard

they would be afraid of a colapse internaly and for that they would do a short and very aggressive moves in the comming years.

PRC would not rest in peace till the MAO party is safe

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 25 Nov 2009 02:54

Found a pretty little map that might be relevant
Harit Pradesh is probably to be carved in this corridor

Pakistan-Bangladesh plan a Mughalistan to split India

http://www.bengalgenocide.com/mughalistan.php

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 25 Nov 2009 03:22

The CPC has always been flexible in its strategy. It has always twisted around to hedge and spead its risks. Even at the height of the first phase of "Naxal" violence, the CPC did not commit much beyond its rhetoric about a "spring" thunder over India. The CPC from even the middle "Mao" period was strongly inclined towards ethnicity based selection of "allies". For the CPC, the NE ethnic separatists are more reliable than the motley crowd of "red"s in the forests and plains of India.

From the latter phase of the "Long March" Mao took the wooing of Islamism as a natural strategic aspect of "Sinified Marxism" when they needed to make peace with the NW Muslim tribes. Mao even invented "similarities" between "communism and Islamism.

From these two aspects, of relying on an imagined Chinese ethnicity and ist imagined proximity with "tribes/ethnicities" among neighbours, and ideologies like Islamism, we can see that CPC has not essentially changed its Maoist thinking. (Even the kissing America tactic hails from Mao. It is relatively less known that at one stage during the Pacific war, a section of the American military were quite favourable towards Mao - and Maoist rhetoric changed dramatically and favourably towards America for that period).

I am not that sure, that CPC relies that much on the plains Maoists of India. They are simply used as tools at most, and they will always be trusted much less than Nepalese communists whom the CPC considers closer ethnically. CPC will not risk exposure to the extent that it is identified as the international ally of the Naxals.

The Naxalite network is partly integrated with Jihadis, EJists, ethnic separatists, as well as criminal/smuggling networks that span the entire subcontinent and beyond. They all have different political and financial objectives, but they will be forced to collaborate sooner or later - forced to do so because of the commonality of having to face the "rashtryia" power.

The CPC will help this generic alliance, and more through its reliable assets in the NE, and Jihadis, as well as o a certain extent through Nepalese communists. It is more important for CPC to push for removal of India from being able to threaten the POK NA. Second to neutralize any possibility of a resurgent Tibetan move for independence.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 25 Nov 2009 19:21

The USA-India meet is a superb exercise in diplomatic showmanship. Many are wondering at the relative low-key representation in the media. But this is perhaps deliberate from the side of both administrations. The real negotiations and bullying or resisting bullying is going to take place behind the scenes. There is going to be intense pressure in MMS on three areas (a) concessions on "Kashmir" to TSP + accept Chinese dominance in AFPAK (b) show "initiative" in nuclear disarmament without any matching solid commitment from TSP and PRC (c) show "initiative" in measures to cut down on "emissions".

But it is going to be a stalemate - discussion and negotiationwise. My feeling is that Congress top rung is divided internally over the issue of concessions - especially about electoral potential fallouts of "concessions". In spite of recent abonormal string of successes, the larger the efforts needed for "electoral management" the greater is the risk of "exposure" for such management.

One of the interesting signs for me, are the attempts at keeping ABV out of criticism in the fallout of the Lieberhan report - not only as expected from the BJP side but also across the political spectrum. It is partly a political stance of dividing the BJP and isolating the group around Advani. But more importantly it is a signal from portions of the other side, that if the BJP changed face to a more "moderate" leadership - it could be acceptable as an alternative to the Congress by the ruling "classes". Simultaneously that is a warning to the more "collaborative" sections within Congress and GOI that appearing weak and "conceding" to PAK and PRC will be politically suicidal.

D Roy · Post by **D Roy** » 25 Nov 2009 20:16

ladies and Gentlemen.

Any Human wave attack/attacks (if anybody is silly enough to attempt it) on India's borders will be totally repulsed and destroyed. That is the very minimum which the Indian military and modern warfare has ensured for you.
Moreover large scale armed infiltrations are also out of the question. In fact even along the difficult LOC, successful infiltration attempts according to some reports is down by 60-80 per cent. India has a huge paramilitary force and any infiltrators will find it impossible to sustain large scale operations within Indian territory, especially in areas where the population is clearly hostile.It is one thing to sneak in small teams at a time, quite another to try another 1948.

One more point, I keep reading in these forums that civilians in India need to be armed. there was a report in TOI some time ago about the fact that India as a country has the second most number of unlicensed firearms, eclipsed only by the united states. The number AFAIR was in the 50 million range. In areas like Lehnda Punjab and Magadh in Bihar almost every house has something or the other.

In the North East there are hundreds of tribes ( besides the ones that make the news) who are very decently armed. And they are very much part of the Indian Union.
What you see in Kashmir or in Maoist areas is a very low intensity conflict where the Paramilitary is showing great restraint indeed, so as to not alienate the locals any further. in a real no holds barred contest neither the piglets nor maoists will be around for more than a few months.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 25 Nov 2009 22:56

There are only two threads now where someone has expressed a consideration of possibly arming the people. The NBJ and the Partition thread. Keeping the population disarmed is a sign of the rashtra actually being scared of its citizens being militarily able to resist any moves that those who rule the rashtra at any given point of time may decide to make against individuals or portions of its own citizens.

This is generally a feature of societies that have been subjugated to authoritarian and non-representative rule for very long periods where rulers have had to coerce the subjects to extract surplus and other benefits for their personal excess consumption.

However the overwhelming majority of threads and posters appear not to have made such demands for general arming of the people.

J&K is peculiar indeed. Here the minority of Kashmiri Pundits could not be protected from genocidal evictions because of either (a) law and order is state business (b) the sentiments of the "local/native" and "majority" cannot be hurt by taking such actions. However the same principles should no longer be considered supreme if it is a non-Congress government in the province, and the genocidic eviction is being carried out on non-Hindus only.

Of course, of course any government that chooses not to touch article 370 [ "Article 370 of the Constitution of India (Temporary provisions with respect of the State of Jammu and Kashmir)"] can always take shelter behind that as an excuse for not being able to apply such high "principles" when it is the case of J&K.

"Human waves" of invaders! Are they necessary in modern times? You need local collaboration, and a slow and steady undermining of state administrative machinery - at least as far as ineffectiveness in the spread of hostile ideologies and mobilizations are concerned. The push can come much later.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 26 Nov 2009 00:19

^^^

B-ji, I am not able to comprehend the root causes, but such prejudice was applied only to Hindu interests in India. Even that prejudice is attributed to Hindu faith, values, and customs.

I guess the Hindu leadership must learn and apply the same strategies used by EJs, IJs, and JJs at tactical level, even if some argue that it is against the dharmic principles. I think the present "Kali Yuga" demands certain amount of "bending rules".

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 26 Nov 2009 05:04

Democracy can perform rapid necessary transitions for a society - of the orders typically seen only under authoritarian leadership - only when there is a mass movement supporting and managing the electoral drive towards "change". Without the mass movement and mobilization, democracy sends up opportunists ultimately out for personal power. The mass movement keeps the pressure on both the elected leaders as well as itself not to deviate or compromise on objectives.

Mass movements cannot start before the mass is ready. Actually it is the public setting of targets of economic prosperity with impossible standards being set by entertainment industry, or even the real experience of conspicuous consumption by a small fraction - that will lead to a mismatch between expectations and reality. The greater the attempts at development and resulting incomplete or partial satisfaction - the greater is the danger of the current regime programme of holding out the carrot of prosperity - unravelling.

D Roy · Post by **D Roy** » 26 Nov 2009 11:02

"Human waves" of invaders! Are they necessary in modern times? You need local collaboration, and a slow and steady undermining of state administrative machinery - at least as far as ineffectiveness in the spread of hostile ideologies and mobilizations are concerned. The push can come much later.

There are some posters who keep talking in terms of 500000 out of Nepal, 1,000,000 out of Pakjab etc. I only sought to reassure them a little bit.

coming to different things, regardless of whether the GOI is in favour of arming the civilian population or not, the fact remains that the civilian population in some very 'difficult' areas is quite well armed. As far as undermining anybody is concerned the recent comments of a very famous yet controversial lawyer about Jehaadis, coming in the wake of the VM fatwa show that nothing has really been undermined.

Tacit alliances to win local elections have taken place, but the idea of India is firmly entrenched.

Ananya · Post by **Ananya** » 26 Nov 2009 11:16

I would like to add that i was mentioning a scenario is if they were to arise would bring in a wave from three fronts , i would assume they would be support by air support as well, i am assuming an option where in PLA would do a lighting strike from two fronts and TSP from 1 with Talibs and Mujahids , not for capturing teritorry but to prove a point and bring India down

If we are prepared for a simentaneous bliztering attack and not buckle down then, that is just wonderful.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 26 Nov 2009 18:16

Ananya ji,
it has to be about territory. TSP wants territory. Better, the fertile northern plains. To make holding on to that territory firm, means from TSP viewpoint to ensure that a substantial "Islamic" population takes hold in the river plains. Thus they are not simply oriented towards a fall or retreat of GOI.

PRC has dual interest. It has primarily a territorial interest in order to secure its Tibetan and Sinkiang interests. Which is related to its overall ambitions to dominate the IOR and secure energy and market resources. Its secondary target is of course to try and undermine the Indian economy.

Just "military adventures" into India to teach a "lesson" is not profitable in current scenario. The target is to make certain regions virtually ungovernable. Outright conquering by war in itself is rather complicated (or of doubtful outcome) in the bcakdrop of modern international intervention systems. The war has to coincide with what something can be represented as internal "popular discontent" with attendant "human rights abuse" by the pre-existing government. Then the whole gamut of arguments for "right to self-determination" with selective focus on "rights of minorities". This is the modern technique.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 26 Nov 2009 19:06

D Roy wrote:
"Human waves" of invaders! Are they necessary in modern times? You need local collaboration, and a slow and steady undermining of state administrative machinery - at least as far as ineffectiveness in the spread of hostile ideologies and mobilizations are concerned. The push can come much later.

There are some posters who keep talking in terms of 500000 out of Nepal, 1,000,000 out of Pakjab etc. I only sought to reassure them a little bit.

The real question is how to reverse the situation in the neighboring regions to become India friendly. Long term plans have to be discussed and the process has to be created.

Hindu civilization has to be extended geographically

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 27 Nov 2009 04:40

Early this year, the People's Daily warned the US administration not to rely on a unilateral hard power surge to solve the Afghan problem, and urged the USA to stabilize Pakistan, conciliate Russia, and realistically define acceptable outcomes for Afghanistan.

Hu Jintao's made a high-profile trip into KSA. KSA can be assumed to be working for arrangements for the Talebs to share in AFG power as part of a "consensus government". More importantly, the CPC hosted a delegation from Pakistani Jamaati-e-Islami in Beijing, Xian and Shanghai in February. CPC and Jamaat apparently signed a MOU with the Jamaat stating that :

"Both parties have agreed upon four principles including independence, equality, and mutual respect and not to interfere in the internal matters of each country ... Both sides assured full support to China's national and geographical unity, and fully backed China's stance on Taiwan, Tibet and Xin Jiang issues."

CBS reported about a "senior" Jamaat leader speaking from Mansoora, the party's headquarters in Pakistan's Punjab region, that the agreement which was signed this month "makes us accept finally and formally that China's internal affairs are not our business". While confirming the Jamaat's agreement with the Chinese Communist Party, one senior Pakistani intelligence official who spoke to CBS News on condition of anonymity said, "This is a major event for Pakistan and for China. It formally ends what I consider a very bad chapter in Pakistan's relations with China."

The Jamaat is an ally of Nawaz, and if Zardari falls Nawaz can become the face of the ISI+Talebjabi combination, with formal Islamism represented by the Jamaat. Thus PRC is actually investing in a multilateral tie-up with Islamists in TSP and AFG, so that Talebs alone do not call all the shots. This can also mean even a revival of ties with Hekmatyiar, who appears to have been resurrected from exile probably at the behest of both USA+PRC. Hekmatyiar was one of the principal beneficiaries of CIA sponsored military hardware channeled through ISI and TSPA, and was also replenished by the PRC for any shortfall in supply.

The very fact of a formal statement about the role of PRC in "development of TSP" can be hinting at the agreements that both USA and PRC necessarily have to come to, because of their deep involvement with the forces of Jihad in AFPAK region. By promoting blindly the Islamists as a means of removing Soviet influence from the region, and extending their own influences - they made the same blunder as many Indian "thought leaders" make - being taken in by a false sense of confidence in being able to digest "Islamism" while helping to preserve it.

A future research will probably support my conjecture that the tactical military line adopted by the Jihadis are partly from long traditions of AFG area and partly from PLA military doctrine for guerrilla warfare situations. PLA advisors are likely to have been deeply involved in training and supplying the Jihadis. For all we know they could still be involved. Moreover, common sense says, that such advisors would be distributed among all the Jihadi groups, and PRC will now be actively seeking deeper penetration of all aspects of TSP state machinery.

Both USA and PRC are now facing the bite of the very dogs they once helped train and sustain. Added to that, they do not understand and therefore do not have the correct tactical approach towards Islamism. Modelling Islamism by knowledge of non-Islamic systems is fundamentally erroneous. In a way TSP is going to be the beginning of the end for both the countrys' ambitions in ME and South Asia.

But before they get finally seriously mauled, they will try to shift the huge human and material costs on to India. This is where things get complicated.

RayC · Post by **RayC** » 27 Nov 2009 10:48

"Human waves" of invaders! Are they necessary in modern times? You need local collaboration, and a slow and steady undermining of state administrative machinery - at least as far as ineffectiveness in the spread of hostile ideologies and mobilizations are concerned. The push can come much later.

The ideal mode to subvert a nation or even a State within a Nation and take it over.

Ideal examples are the manner how Nazi took over Germany and how the Communists in Bengal ensured their long innings in the State.

The Chinese realising the potential danger of Islamic fundamentalism, have made overtures to the Wahabi heads so as to placate them and isolate the Uighurs and other Muslims in China and localise the issue.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 27 Nov 2009 11:18

RayC wrote: The ideal mode to subvert a nation or even a State within a Nation and take it over.

Ideal examples are the manner how Nazi took over Germany and how the Communists in Bengal ensured their long innings in the State.

This is worth looking at:

It's the last of a 5-part expose on RAW - there are links to the previous parts.

MK Narayanan’s new bête noire: P Chidambaram: http://www.expressbuzz.com/edition/stor ... ehHe7IsSU=

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 27 Nov 2009 18:34

Guardian report on British Council survey on Pakistan

Pakistan has never had such a high proportion of young adults: half of its population are aged under 20, with two-thirds still to reach their 30th birthday. But they are deeply divided about how the country should be run.
[...]
Only a third believe democracy is the best system of governance, one third support sharia law, while 7% think dictatorship is a good idea.
[...]
Of the 1,200 young people surveyed for the report's opinion poll, 60% said they had faith in the military as an institution while only one in 10 voted for President Asif Ali Zardari's beleaguered government.
[...]
Zardari is under heavy pressure with plunging ratings, a hostile media and persistent rumours of an impending "soft" military coup to displace him from the presidency.
[...]
A media adviser, Farahnaz Ispahani, said the cynicism about democracy was a product of Pakistan's history of dictatorship. "Only if a civilian government is allowed to finish its term will the youth trust in democracy," she said.
[...]
Steven, a research fellow at New York University, warned that Pakistan risked creating a giant underclass more prone to extremism and violence. "The country is going through a massive transformation in a global economy where resources are more scarce. It's a big challenge."
[...]
he said. "The US spent $12.3bn (£7.4bn) in Pakistan between 2002 and 2008 of which 70% went to the military. But it has not generated any security," he said.
[...]
A quarter of the survey respondents were illiterate.
[...]
"We can't move forward without education," said Habiba Younis, an 18-year-old student in her final year of secondary studies at Rawalpindi. "That's the reason for misconceptions like fundamentalism. It's something very tragic for our nation."
[...]
The report reflects a wider pessimism driven largely by Taliban violence. The number of Pakistanis who believe their country is headed in the "wrong direction" rose from under half in 2006 to about 80% today, according to another survey by the International Republican Institute.
[...]
The British report, Pakistan – the Next Generation, uncovers deep-rooted hostility towards western policies. Today a suspected US drone strike killed eight people in North Waziristan as the CIA director, Leon Panetta, visited leaders in Islamabad.
[...]
"Sixty-two years back there was a nation in search of a land," one young person told researchers. "At present there is a piece of land in search of a nation."

The report is an interesting survey on many counts.

The first important feature is that from the demographic viewpoint, that TSP can potentially mobilize almost 25% of its population against India in the militarily significant age group 20-40 over the next 20 years. The report does not make it clear about overlap proportions. However, reasonably guessing low overlap between those who have faith in the TSPA and those who believe in democracy, or between "democrats" and those who believe in the "sharia", we have a 2/3 majority of "undemocratic" thinking within this very same quarter of a militarily mobilizable population.

Taleban violence is not promoting hatred of the "sharia" or pf "dictatorships" or "militarism" - all badges of honour for Talebanism. This implies that in spite of the pious wishes and politically motivated interpretation of the survey by the "scholars", the younger generation actually derives their mental makeup from the same root source as that of the Talebs - Jihadi Islamism in all its social-educational-propaganda-theological framework.

Obviously, the prescriptions of "letting civilian governments complete their term" or "education as the cure all" are coming from those who already are privileged by education and class origins. They are seeing their world from their wishlist and believe that mere education or continuance of government will prevent Jihadi violence and bring stability. This again is the result of the half-baked half-truths of western sociological doctrines - where the real violent history and cynical exploitation or repression of European societies by their own rulers towards modernism are carefully omitted.

As long as Islamic theology, and the Ulema survive in TSP - Pakistan will continue to become increasingly Jihadized. India took a different turn because the majority of its society did not fall under the ideological spell of Islam - although all possible attempts have been made to make them do so. Same goes for BD - for it could struggle against Jihadi Islam because its society was equally divided numerically between Islamists and non or even in some cases anti-Islamists with strong retention of pre-Islamic cultural roots. So its history has been halfway between that of India and Pakistan.

Only possible way for Pakistani populations to reach some degree of stability and safety - is to reduce their Islamic networks. Their givernments and the "west" has protected and are still protecting the Ulema and their fiefdoms. As long as that continues - Jihad will burn TSP and it will burn countries like India more than it burns itself.

Ananya · Post by **Ananya** » 27 Nov 2009 22:16

I have seen this article abt Paki demographies . this is what i was reffering to on the invaders. no matter how prepared we are ,we will have a very tough battle with high casualities or fear of loosing too to this population of mad dogs.The majory of the population in India would be going to schools/carreer building and money making mode

This is like a scifi/Horror movie where in a bunch of insects take over something like that . you end up being defenceless for sometime unless you find a mechanisim to exterminate them

I have read the discussions on the Hindu way of behaviour and Hindu philosophy/dharma etc etc on BRF but on the other side couple of facts did get my eye, may be not true , on the vatican beleifs and US/Bush doctrine which beleives in the fact that these mad dogs do eventually do this .

may be , a stich in time saves nine .

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 27 Nov 2009 22:52

Ananya ji,
Can you please expand on this particular aspect (Vatican etc) you are saying, within GDF? Maybe also possible in "distorted history" thread?

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 28 Nov 2009 01:25

Brihaspatiji, I had some questions and needed few clarifications which I have put on "Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent " Thread.
I would be very grateful if you can explain those.

Ananya · Post by **Ananya** » 29 Nov 2009 23:53

well, what I am interpreting is from the various aspects

1. Astrological behavior
2. Vatican's interpretation of the 'Saints of Fatima' and other prophesies
3. US behavior and watchdog

I am just trying to connect the dots and my views on the dots

1. Astrological behviour . of the various articles which i have read and seen and compiled a few of the references. first that strikes is the astronomical behavior occurring in the 2012 range , this is not the 2012 garbage prophesy but one thing that caught my eye is the fact that a series of disturbances are in store for in Pakistan's and China's times

2. Vatican has always been on the forefront in the creation of modern polices and politics today and generally act as a starting point for any major
decisions, On the saints of Fatima revelation it was apparent that the church used its influence how ever minuscule it may be in the USSR breakup and startup of perestroika , there are a million conspiracy theory surrounding this that needs to be ignored . On Nostradamus church has revealed the book and prophesies on happenings that has already occurred and all specifics have always been taken out by church. The mention of Persia in the prophesies makes everybody worry jittery in the Jewish and Christian world and the recent embargoes on Iran is a direct result of that and no body can really change , these were intentionally let out to support the psychological warfare

3. Us policies are generally shaped by a few insiders and no body can really change it dramatically recent overtures of Obama while in campaign and in office are different
when it comes to foreign policy ( Kashmir is of least significance).The fundamental rule of thumb for US is look at the failures of the previous civilization across the globe and apply the same. They have always in the recent history of the last 100 years grow nations and call them enemies and collapse them with china being their latest addition, they need this for their survival

The implication for India are pretty significant as being an very old civilization with has seen the ups and down of time for last 3000 years ,
based on the points mention above , if we are to closely look at the astrological indicators for the next few years ,
the indicators are very bright ( India is Surya dasa to be more specific ) but there is a deep glitch for a few years in and around 2010 to 2013 range.
on the traps laid by US India has not fallen into that trap knowingly or unknowingly and is currently immune to the current US overtures as the they are now focused on China. The heart of Persia is a cause of concern as this need not be Iran but our good neighbor where in a rabid population would be/ is driven to a ideological madness by wrong interpretation and misconception . China will also see to pay to that tune as US beings to collapse PRC economically and like a tiger that has tasted blood . Considering all these factors there would be some disturbances leading to
a closer alignment of the neighbors which could lead to a wave theory as stated above , US will be a silent spectator and just add a small fuel to the fire

I only hope we are better prepared to weather the storm or it could just me a fantasy dream what i Just stated .

Just to add to the spice Gandhi's prophesy of 4 wars with PAK could be on the horizon .....

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 30 Nov 2009 03:18

The astrological bit can become a bit controversial. I am not sure how the forum will look at such speculation! But maybe you can try it in the GDF.

[By the way, by "Surya" dasa, so you imply "ravi mahadasa" of the more popular vimshattari/ashttari, and taking the Independence chart? Sun is not theoretically speaking "good" for India from that perpective]

However use of "prophecies" can be a powerful tool of public mobilization or psychological preparation. That aspect can become very much a concern for strategic thinking in public policy research. I do keep a track on the various trends of prophecying that seems to proliferate on the net and the media (there are dedicated TV channels towards discussing such stuff sponsored primarily by EJ'ists and recently Ia m also observing certain Islamist groups also jump on to the bandwagon). They all boil down to a few "sources" and are almost inevitably connected to religious mobilizations, underneath.

Curiously they are now beginning to bring in India more often, albeit reluctantly and still in a passive role - where the "great white sharks" actually battle it out. I think this is a panic stricken society whose frenzy is being whipped up by clever reliogious-political combinations to divert attention from real crises in society and economy which these very same religious-political combines have actually brought on. But the leadership still show no sign of recognizing their severe religious and racial viewpoint errors. And their ideological blindfold will be their undoing.

What India can suffer or can do to avoid or turn it all around is a matter of choosing the correct path and being able to foresee the future direction. Choice of path is a murky business. I have a feeling that we will move towards the right way, but for that to happen hard lessons have to be first suffered - so that the "moha" that blinds our "thought leaders" is shaken off.