Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

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abhischekcc
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by abhischekcc »

The whole economic mess can be corrected by sacrificing China's interests. My sixth sense is telling that we are going to see a great trade war, never seen before or never imagined its consequences.
About an year ago, I had said that WW2 style protectionism is unlikely to happen, given the much higher interdependency in the world. However, the situation has developed so far from imagination (especially the Chinese capacity expansion), that trade wars are a real possibility. Vietnam's decision to (slightly) debase its currency was a small step in the direction. But if the same is done by a large country like India, it may trigger a world wide race to the bottom.

As of now, the only thing that can trigger such a move is the Chinese using their excess capacity to aggressively expand exports.

------------------
PS
A lot of people have an almost touching faith in Chinese ability to plan long term (in hundreds of years, apparently). What this crisis has shown is that the Chinese have a fundamental lack of imagination. I mean, sure they can make a plan and stick to it. But when external changes warrant a change in the plan, these guys are clueless. Something like the Addams Family. :lol:
Hari Seldon
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Hari Seldon »

Web commentary on the impending Dubai default (strictly TIFWIW onlee)
It looks like Dubai World, the government investment company burdened by $59 BILLION in debt, is moving towards defaulting. Globally, a lot of Banks, directly or indirectly, are holding Dubai paper. Insurance companies, which insured these Dubai loans, are probably in the same position that AIG was. If you recall, AIG collapsed.

All this financial interconnection, especially at the Sovereign Debt Level, has markets scared. The sudden jump in the cost of Credit Default Swaps suggests that bad news, very bad news is just over the horizon.

In my book, $50 BILLION in debt is relatively small potatoes. And Dubai World is on the hook for only $4 BILLION due in December. You'd think that for those relatively small amounts, that a Bailout would be easy to secure. Unless, of course, like the U.S., it has assets, [mostly Dubai real estate], that have plunged in value and which are being held by the loan holders already in trouble themselves from the Global Economic Destruction. We may be witnessing the start of The Great Unraveling.
Yes, the Dubai Palms are Sinking....and not surprisingly, it is unrelated to global warming.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/11 ... ld-really/

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/11 ... -of-dubai/

Note that Citi is in for 1.9 bil. ...That's gotta hurt.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by vina »

Dubai defaults, stocks tumble, CDS soars

So there is justice in the world after all. Allah-o-akbar! . Take that you scum for hosting terrorists like Dawood and all the Paki terrorists and the shameful behavior during the Kandhar hijack.. Yeah, now pay back all that you borrowed with INTEREST.
a_bharat
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by a_bharat »

Timely action by the rating agencies ... as usual.
"Standard & Poor's and Moodys immediately downgraded all six state-backed corporations in Dubai, downgrading some to junk status."
:rotfl:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8380105.stm
sanjaykumar
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by sanjaykumar »

Man o man these rating agencies are giving a bad name to white people.
James B
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by James B »

Check this nice animation on BBC about -The cost of the financial meltdown: Deficits and spending

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8214272.stm
shyamd
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by shyamd »

Robert Fisk: India may hold whip hand in this power game
..........There are, however, two basic truths about Dubai which, predictably, have not found their way into market speculation or newspaper analysis. The first is that Dubai may soon find itself a satellite not of its Abu Dhabi capital but of India. The biggest merchants in Dubai are Indian – they run the gold market, even the bookshops in Sheikh Mohamed's playpen – and west India is only two hours' flying time away. In fact, until 1962 – and you have to be an oldie to understand the emirates' economic world – the Indian rupee was the currency for most of the Gulf, including even Kuwait............
Hari Seldon
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Hari Seldon »

shyamd saar,

Still don't see how or what influence Dilli can weild in Dubai that Abu Dhabi cannot. OK, so pre-1962 the INR was acceptable as currency in the gulf. Fine. That was a long time ago. How does that pertain to 2009? Is it that the business establishment pre-1962 was consolidated by the cunning baniyas leveraging INR hegemony then and has since been maintained? Isure would hope so. Just that these people shouldn't be like the Uganda gujjus who, am told , after fleeing idi Amin choose to be outspoken against or outright derisive about mother Yindia.

Anyway Sri Fisk is suspect in my book.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Hari Seldon »

prad,

AFAIK, the 30s depression (like this one) had its roots in an asset bubble gone haywire, then bust. The roaring 20s were all about every johnny and his uncle jumping into equities, bank lending from the 1000s of regional banks into all kinds of asset classes and so on. After the bust in 1929, the asset values dropped beneath the floor but the debt overhang remained intact. Lo the depression followed.

The Fed then had less power than that today to do much about things because of the prevailing gold standard. Still, FDR devalues the USD 40% against gold in one swoop after taking power, gold as currency gets confiscated and bank holidays happen.

To claim the two downturns - that of the 30s and that coming in the next decade are fundamentally different is IMHO, a bit of a stretch.
Hari Seldon
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Hari Seldon »

For the record, here's the original Independent article by Johann Hari on the dark side of Dubai - Must read if you haven't already.

The dark side of Dubai

Just desserts, I'd say after reading the truth.

Meanwhile, can Dilli put pressure on the ICC types now comfyly ensconced in Dubai to shift to kirket's natural home, eh?

Also, heard that some blue-blood US corporate types were considering a HQ shift to Dubai. Halliburton certainly did the shift (shaft?) already. Wonder what'll happen now. No?

Meanwhile enfant terrible of the finblogging world, a certain zero hedge, is roiling rumor again. Just How Scroomed Are HSBC And Standard Chartered On Dubai's Default?
Many investors have asked about HSBC/STAN exposure to Dubai World (a leading government-linked property developer/holding company) and its affiliates, amidst Nov 26 press reports of Dubai World’s request for a creditor standstill agreement on its c.US$59bn debts (source: Bloomberg). Both HSBC and STAN have declined to comment on individual firm exposures. However, press reports (Bloomberg, FT), past descriptions by both banks of their UAE wholesale banking businesses, and HSBC’s/STAN’s status as the largest and second largest foreign banks in the UAE would all suggest some level of exposure to Dubai World and other similar entities.

Context on likely HSBC, STAN exposures

HSBC had US$15.9bn of loans/advances to the UAE as at end-June 2009. More specifically, HSBC had US$3.475bn of real estate and mortgage loan exposure to the UAE as of the same period, representing 25.9% and 2.7% of our 2010E net profit and shareholders’ equity projections for the group. STAN had US$12.3bn of cross-border loan exposure to the UAE as at end-June 2009 (and US$7.8bn of locally-booked loans to the UAE as at YE08). More specifically, STAN had US$1.674bn of real estate and mortgage loan exposure to the Middle East/South Asia region as of the same date. We estimate c.60% of this exposure, or US$1.0bn, was to the UAE, representing 22.4% and 3.4% of our 2010E NPAT and shareholders’ equity projections for STAN.
TIFWIW onlee.
amol.p
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by amol.p »

a_bharat wrote:Timely action by the rating agencies ... as usual.
"Standard & Poor's and Moodys immediately downgraded all six state-backed corporations in Dubai, downgrading some to junk status."
:rotfl:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8380105.stm

The Major losers are again European & US banks. As per CNBC out of $80 billion debt, $40 billion exposure is to european banks ( LLyods, RBS, HSBC, Credit sussie.....) while $10-$15 billion for US banks.........seems vast tracks of Dubai coast line will be put for fire sale within coming months.....BR bingos can buy some land and dirt cheap prices....!!!!!!!!! :mrgreen:
Neshant
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Neshant »

i'm not saying we should create another bubble by speculations. but to think that deflation is good is delusional.
Its nothing more than a ponzi scheme robbing the productive segment of society and transferring wealth to those up top printing money.

At the end of the day, its just a simple question - who's wealth should be confiscated to pay a debt. Inflation is shifting of that responsibility onto the backs of those who made the right decision by not buying over-priced assets during a bubble. Deflation is the correct response which is to let the market find its price equilibrium and let the gamblers eat their losses.

The present recession closely matches the great depression in that over capacity in the system was built up to an unsustainable point - made even more unsustainable by fraud in the present scenario. The only way out is deflation which is good if you were not stupid enough to accumulate a ton of over-priced assets and equities at the top.

Its bad if you are broke & up to your arse in debt having made irresponsible decisions and eagerly looking to shift the burden onto someone else. Clueless guys like bernanke are now running around trying to figure out how to do just that which is why i've said central banking is nothing more than a scam.

Deflation is necessary and good as a corrective measure for years of fraud and running a fake economy even if it is tough medicine. It will set the stage for the next boom once its done. Ideally one should never get to such a massive bubble but since fiddling (aka central banking) is the chosen path, then you gotta deal with the consequences.
Last edited by Neshant on 27 Nov 2009 10:39, edited 1 time in total.
Neshant
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Neshant »

So there is justice in the world after all. Allah-o-akbar! . Take that you scum for hosting terrorists like Dawood and all the Paki terrorists and the shameful behavior during the Kandhar hijack.. Yeah, now pay back all that you borrowed with INTEREST.
Some desis no doubt aided the process by skipping town on their debts in dubai and fleeing to India leaving behind a stream of unpaid bills.

I recall reading that many leased cars were just left at the airport by foreigners in financial trouble fleeing the country. They feared if they were caught trying to turn in the leased cars, they would not be allowed to leave until every last cent of their unpayable debt was repaid.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by amol.p »

Dubai may face realty firesale

The Dubai government could be forced to hold a firesale of its international real estate if creditors to two of its flagship companies reject proposals to put near-term debt obligations on ice until May 2010.

International property advisors are bracing for a potential slew of instructions to revalue and sell trophy assets owned by Dubai World and its many property-owning units as the emirate struggles to shrink its $59 billion debt pile. “We do expect the Dubai government to step up efforts to raise capital via real estate sales, and sales of their UK assets in particular,” James Lewis, a member of the Gulf capital markets team at property consultant Knight Frank told Reuters.

Lewis said Dubai had a better chance of denting its massive financial liabilities if it raided its group portfolio, which comprises international landmarks such as the Grand Buildings close to London’s Trafalgar Square, the Mandarin Oriental hotel in New York and the Victoria & Albert Waterfront complex in Cape Town, South Africa.

“The simple supply and demand imbalance (in Dubai) is horrific, which begs the question of why you would want to buy commercial and residential property there if you couldn’t be sure of letting it,” Lewis said. “Some of their properties are interesting and in the fullness of time will look very clever. But they will have to sell their better stock, no one is in the market to buy the poorer grade kit. International assets on the other hand will move,” he added.

Average commercial real estate prices in the UK have risen 3.2% in the three months to end-October as investors chase property bargains offering higher yields than bonds or cash deposits. “With the capital flooding London right now, there’s probably no better place to sell property if you had to raise some quick money,” Alistair Hilton, a partner at property consultant Cushman & Wakefield said.

A spokesman for Deloitte, the company appointed to lead restructuring of Dubai World, said it was too early to speculate on a possible sale of real estate assets and it could be some time before the best possible course of action was established. One Dubai-based property analyst, who did not wish to be named, said the Dubai government was likely to hold onto domestic assets like Nakheel’s world-famous palm-shaped islands to minimise further destabilisation of the local market.

Average Dubai property prices are already forecast to drop by another 20 percent as more developments complete, further driving down values, which have almost halved since last year, a report from researchers at Colliers International showed last month.

Favourable dollar-sterling exchange rates could also encourage the Dubai government to offload more UK property in deals like that struck by its Istithmar unit, lender Eurohypo and property firm Great Portland Estates. — Reuters
Under terms of the November 11 deal, Great Portland and Eurohypo agreed to restructure Istithmar’s debt on the London office redevelopment Marcol House in exchange for a share in the future profits.

“Bear in mind (Dubai) bought this stuff when the dollar was two-to-one, so net receipts back to them will look healthier as a result,” Lewis said.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 273108.cms
Philip
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Philip »

Woes of the rich and famous.
Footballers and film stars caught out as Dubai crash hits new low

Hugh Tomlinson in Dubai

David Beckham and Brad Pitt are believed to be among the celebrities and sportsmen who bought villas in Palm Jumeirah in Dubai, a luxury development that juts out into the Gulf. But when the property bubble burst this year, residents saw the value of their investments collapse. Yesterday their situation worsened as Nakheel, the developer, and its state-owned parent made a request to suspend debt repayments.

The statement rocked credit mar-kets around the world and prompted analysts to question whether Dubai, the most populous of the United Arab Emirates, will be able to meet its obligations. The concern is that Nakheel will be unable to continue developing the Palm and neighbouring projects, leaving Dubai and its coastal waters an ugly, unfinished construction site.

When the 2,000 villas and townhouses on the Palm went on sale in 2002, they sold out in a month. Passing through en route to the World Cup in Japan and Korea were the England football team, and several players stopped off to sign up for £1 million properties on the artificial island, with Michael Owen, David James, Joe Cole, Andy Cole and Kieron Dyer, it was reported, joining Beckham on the beaches. Pitt and Angelina Jolie are also said to have bought homes.

Joe Cole was one of the few who got out in time. The Chelsea player sold his villa for about $3.5 million (£2.1 million) last summer as Dubai’s property bubble approached bursting point.

Related Links
Problems for Dubai are only just beginning
Dubai World seeks 'standstill' on debt
Dubai's driving ambitions turning to sand

Nakheel is now in deep trouble and struggling to cover its debts. Dubai World, a government conglomerate that owns the developer, is $60 billion in the red. Yesterday’s announcement by the Dubai government that it wishes to suspend repayment of Dubai World’s debts for six months, including a $4 billion bond held by Nakheel that was due to be repaid next month, is the clearest indication that the emirate can no longer meet its obligations.

Work has stopped on several major projects around the city and companies have had to accept huge cuts in the value of their contracts. More than 400 projects worth more than $300 billion are said to have been cancelled or shut down as a result of the property collapse.

Recent reports claimed that British companies were owed £200 million by Dubai’s government-owned companies, but some analysts put the total figure much higher. “The bigger construction companies have to take it because if Dubai bounces back they want to pick up more work. Smaller companies have to take any money they can,” one local analyst said.

Thousands flocked to Dubai during the boom, enticed by the tax-free lifestyle. Many invested in property, expecting huge returns as the market soared. By 2007 villas were changing hands at prices 200 per cent higher than four years earlier, and rents skyrocketed as Dubai became intoxicated by a property boom echoed worldwide and by its sense of achieving the impossible.

When the Atlantis hotel was opened on Palm Jumeirah a year ago with a $20 million party headlined by Kylie Minogue, it was supposed to crown the island’s self-styled reputation as an Eighth Wonder of the World. It was also supposed to cement Dubai’s position as a new playground for the rich and famous. The $1 million firework display helped to distract attention from a construction boom running out of steam.

The Dubai government has done its best to deny that a problem exists, claiming recently that the population would rise this year by 400,000, flying in the face of all independent assessments, which predict a sharp fall. The anecdotal stories of cars abandoned at Dubai International airport with credit cards in the glove box have become the stuff of legend, and not the image that the government has sought to project.

Some parts of Dubai World remain strong, in particular DP World, the third-largest international ports operator, which bought P&O in 2006. DP World also owns ports in Britain such as Tilbury in Essex. But those parts of the business that were founded on the property boom, and Nakheel in particular, are likely to continue to struggle until the property market recovers and construction can begin again in earnest. Even then, bankers’ confidence in the business may be shot.

Altogether, the Dubai government and its companies have more than $80 billion of debt. The emirate, which has a population of only two million, has been forced twice to approach its oil-rich neighbour in Abu Dhabi for the funds to bail it out. The federal Government has approved $15 billion in bonds and more will have to follow if Dubai’s state-owned businesses are to survive until an economic recovery can take hold.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/b ... 932539.ece
More Dubai doom news here.
Dubai in deep water as ripples from debt crisis spreadPatrick Hosking and David Robertson

Work has been halted on the artificial islands
Fears of a dangerous new phase in the economic crisis swept around the globe yesterday as traders responded to the shock announcement that a debt-laden Dubai state corporation was unable to meet its interest bill. ....

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/b ... 934261.ece
PS:Some time ago I posted amost intriguing find from an article which had done a stody of tall buildings,finding that the countries that had the tallest buildings in the world inevitable suffered from some sort of economic collapse! With the world's tallest,the Burj (inside which Russian oligarchs are suppoed to have had a shoot out a few weeks ago!),the eco collapse syndrome has struck yet again!
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by amol.p »

Shipping Has ‘Trouble Building Behind Dam,’ Ex-Baltic Head Says

Ship prices may keep dropping for at least another year because banks have not yet dealt with the weaker loans they made to the industry.

“There’s trouble building up behind the dam, and the dam is going to be breached,” Drayton, now an independent shipping consultant in London, said in an interview. “The market is blocking the natural flow to where it should be.”

Tankers and container ships are most overvalued, based on their current earning power, said Drayton.

Earnings for commodity carriers may also drop because they are too reliant on Chinese demand, he said. China is the world’s biggest consumer of iron ore and coal.

“My worry is: can China really prop up these rates single- handedly?” he said. “I just don’t think China can prop things up indefinitely.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... QNMU&pos=6

The Global indices and people seems to be heavily dependent on china for all revival. A single burst in chinese economy is going to take every body down.
Singha
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Singha »

there was a story of a european woman living in her SUV for 8 months and begging/feeding on scraps from kind hearted while awaiting release of her husband who had defaulted on a loan and was sentenced to 8 months in jail with both their passports seized.

some of these 'tax havens' and 'international cities' are seductive on the surface but hide a ruthless fist under the velvet glove.

which brings me to my main point - if things head south, there is NOWHERE in the world where indics will be safe except india. no red passport, eagle stamped passports will provide 100% cover....excuses and loopholes will be found by the goras unused to not playing top dog.

to the indics who hold foreign passports and bad mouth india (fortunately not BR members) , I hope karma is coming.
Hari Seldon
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Hari Seldon »

which brings me to my main point - if things head south, there is NOWHERE in the world where indics will be safe except india. no red passport, eagle stamped passports will provide 100% cover....
Amen.

P.S.

Had a BR mini-meet today - met with 2 other jingoes and went over 4 full hours of war stories, BR stories, TSP-bashing, it-vity baiting, beer guzzling and D&G immersions onlee.
Jai Ho!
Philip
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Philip »

I've always wondered what will happen to Dubai when the oil and money run out.What I've seen did not inspire me with any confidence.Abu Dhabi seemd more conservative and an exampleof how to make the desert bloom,but Dubai?It will become another batch of desrt ruins and an example of hubris.The Burj Tower is our symbol of another legendary ancient example in the desert of man's vainglory,the Tower of Babel The natives will have to go back to living in tents and driving camels not Cadillacs!
Dubai: Minor upset in playground of the rich – or first domino of new crash?After a traumatic year, markets were breathing a sigh of relief. Then the emirate's bubble burst, raising fears of a new meltdown

Heather Stewart and Ian Black, Middle East editor
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 26 November 2009 22.04 GMT

Construction work has stopped at many sites in Dubai. Photograph: Gareth Cattermole/Getty Images

While Iceland's transformation from fishing nation to financial powerhouse – and back – became a potent symbol of the banking boom and bust of the past few years, the Middle Eastern emirate of Dubai was where the global property bubble was taken to its glitziest extreme.

Without the oil reserves of many of their neighbours, Dubai's rulers hatched a hubristic plan to turn their city-state in the sand into a glamorous playground for the rich, enthusiastically bankrolled by western investors.

Now, with the state-owned builder of many of Dubai's most extravagant projects struggling to repay its debts, the world's financial markets have been forced to wake up to the idea that they may have declared an end to the turmoil of the credit crunch too soon.

Stock markets have soared over the past eight months as investors shrugged off fears that the near-death experience of the world's financial system when Wall Street bank Lehman Brothers collapsed in October 2008 would lead to a 21st-century great depression. But Dubai's woes this week were a sharp reminder that there may be plenty more unexploded bombs hidden in the world economy. First, Dubai's authorities are not alone – a string of other states, including Greece, Ukraine and Ireland, face severe debt problems in the months and years ahead as they tackle the costs of the worst recession in a generation at the same time as clearing up the debris from a rampant credit boom.

The International Monetary Fund has already stepped in to bail out several struggling states, including Iceland, Hungary and Pakistan, but Dubai World's announcement raised the fear of a new wave of victims emerging.

Second, the economic slump is not over. While many major economies, including the US, Germany and Japan, have come out of recession, recovery has so far been aided by vast emergency infusions of taxpayers' cash. No one is sure what will happen when those life-support measures are removed next year and central banks begin to shut off low-cost lifelines to banks and raise interest rates.

And third, if Dubai World does default, it will send fresh shockwaves through the world's financial system. International banks – including the UK's – have lent Dubai and its firms billions of dollars to fund its glittering glass towers and indoor ski slopes in the desert. The risk that many of those loans may now go sour has reawakened nagging concerns that even after government-backed rescue packages worth trillions of dollars, the worst may not be over for the bombed-out banks. Germany's Bundesbank warned earlier this week that its banks may face a further €90bn in writedowns on bad loans before the crisis is over.

Uncertainty about whether Dubai World would actually be forced to default, and how much of their money lenders would get back, were exacerbated by the fact that financial markets in Dubai were closed for the Muslim festival of Eid al-Adha. To complicate matters further, the debts were taken out as Islamic bonds, known as sukuks, and the rules about what happens if the borrower fails to pay them back are hazy.

Investors hope Dubai will be bailed out by neighbouring Abu Dhabi, the United Arab Emirates capital – though it is not clear what that might mean for the autonomy of Dubai's ruler, Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid al-Maktoum, famous for breeding and racing thoroughbred horses, and for his £10bn fortune.

But whether Dubai is the first domino to fall in a new wave of the global financial crisis or, as some commentators argued today, just a small city-state whose struggles have few implications for the rest of the world, its frozen cranes, empty skyscrapers and bankrupt expatriates are a powerful parable of what happens when a property boom gets badly out of control.

Dubai's romantic past as a sleepy fishing and pearling port has all but gone and nowadays the wooden abras that ferry passengers across its famous creek are dwarfed by banks and investment companies. The richest and most populous of the seven states of the United Arab Emirates, it has an economy second in size only to regional giant Saudi Arabia.

Footballers and film stars have sprinkled stardust on its arid landscape, buying up villas on exclusive developments such as the extraordinary Palm Jumeirah, a lagoon of man-made islands surrounded by an azure sea. Owners there include David Beckham and a clutch of Premier League stars, Afghan president Hamid Karzai, Russian oligarchs, many rich Indians and some well-connected Iranians.

Leisure opportunities in the "Paris of the Middle East" include some of the biggest and busiest shopping malls on the planet. Westerners enjoy a far freer lifestyle than elsewhere in the Gulf, though the recent experience of the British couple caught having sex was a reminder that there are still cultural taboos to be observed.

Parts of the city have a distinctly subcontinental feel that recalls the old joke about the UAE: "Emirates stands for English-Managed, Indian-Run, Arabs Taking Enormous Salaries."

In the good years, the cash poured in, spilling over from the oil-rich states of the Middle East, as sky-high oil prices and strong global growth created windfalls for many of its Gulf neighbours, and from the frenzied deal-making in the international financial markets.

The scale of the resulting building boom was extraordinary, sucking in hundreds of thousands of poorly-paid foreign workers and sending property prices in the desert playground sky-high. Long after the sub-prime crisis began in the United States and spread to much of the rest of the world, the emirate responded with its trademark self-confidence – reckless over-confidence to its critics. It was just over a year ago, as the global financial shadows began to lengthen, that Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem, the DW chairman, boasted: "Dubai has a vision like no other place on Earth."

The claim came as Nakheel, the DW property arm, unveiled plans to build the world's tallest tower, with more than 200 floors – beating its nearest rival, the existing Burj Dubai tower, still under construction and due to open next January.

Nakheel, represented by a slick international PR team, was quick to brush aside fears that the emirate would be infected by the coming recession, insisting that fundamentals remained sound and that returns from overseas investment funds would perform better than oil revenues.

So instead of retreat, Dubai carried on partying. And some even saw a silver lining in the gathering clouds, predicting that leaner times for Dubai would reduce the number of expatriates and help re-establish a sense of national identity.

"We have been bombarded with the tallest, the best, the largest, for the past few years," said Professor Abdelkhaleq Abdullah of Emirates University. "The novelty has gone."

But over the past year it has become increasingly clear that the party is over: property prices have fallen by 40-50% from 2007-08 highs and are expected to slide by another 20%. Unemployed Indian workers have left in their tens of thousands while stories of expensive new cars abandoned at the airport by bankrupt foreigners have become the stuff of folklore.

Holiday homesMany high-profile celebrities have holiday homes in Dubai. The actors Brad Pitt and Denzel Washington as well as the supermodel Naomi Cambell (below), are all rumoured to own properties on Dubai's super-exclusive Palm Jumeirah, one of the three constructed Palm Islands in the Persian Gulf.

The developer behind the Palm Jumeirah scheme is Nakheel, whose parent company is Dubai World.

Residents saw their investments collapse this year as Dubai's property bubble burst and now they could be fearing their properties will be devalued yet further.

Investors are also concerned that Nakheel will not be able to afford to finish work on Palm Jumeirah and its other projects, which will leave a lot of Dubai resembling a building site.

A number of footballers have invested in the area. David Beckham, Michael Owen, David James and Kieron Dyer have reportedly got homes there. The Chelsea and England player Joe Cole had a villa but he sold his property for about $3.5m in the summer, just before Dubai's property bubble burst.This will also be bad news for a number of UK engineering consultants who are owed money in Dubai. Nelson Ogunshakin, head of the Association of Consulting Engineers (ACE) says UK engineers working in the UAE are owed around £250m.

Banks have also invested heavily in the area. According to the Emirates Bank Association, HSBC has $17bn invested in UAE, Standard Chartered has $7.8bn, Barclays has $3.6bn and has . RBS $2.2bn. Citigroup also has $1.9bn in the UAE whilst BNP Paribas $1.7bn and Lloyds has $1.6bn.

Kathryn Hopkins
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/no ... -new-crash
Philip
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Philip »

Bye Bye Dubai!
Is this bye-bye Dubai?
Dubai dazzled the world with its extravagance and excess. Now it wants to defer its debts. What went wrong, asks Richard Spencer.

By Richard Spencer
Published: 7:52AM GMT 27 Nov 2009

No expense spared: The Atlantis Hotel, Dubai
Early one morning at the end of last month, a throaty roar rippled over the sands of the Arabian desert. As it grew in pitch in the warm dawn air, it also became fainter, reverberating through the vacant car parks and abandoned building sites of the city towards the calm waters and newly built islands of the Persian Gulf.

As the caravan disappeared over the western horizon, it lumbered rather more than you might expect from one made up of luxury sports cars: but then, there were 82 of them. The Ferrari Owners' Club was on its way.


Dubai debt worries grip financial markets It could only be Dubai. The emirate – the very term has oriental echoes of excess – does nothing by halves, and though analysts said the financial crisis would induce a sober new realism, we in Dubai didn't listen.

When we go to watch Formula 1 in Abu Dhabi – the case that Saturday morning – we go by police-escorted Ferrari convoy. When we build new buildings, we build them higher than any that have gone before. Then we build more of them. When we build sandcastles in the shape of palm trees, full of splashy houses with swimming pools and private beaches, we don't just order one. We have three (two are deserted).

And when we decide, after months of silence, to issue statements about our financial problems, we do not whisper honeyed words: we drop noisy, clattering bombshells.

So it was on Wednesday night, just as the lights went out at the start of the lengthy Eid al-Adha holiday and the city's expat banking legions headed off for a break at their favoured Shangri-la or Kempinski resorts along the coast.

A little background: everyone knew that Dubai Inc, the mixture of royal and government holding companies that dominate the economy, owed a lot of money, but no one worried because everyone knew it had plans in place to repay them.

Not so, as it turned out. The brief statement was short but, in the words of one banker, desperate. "Dubai World intends to ask all providers of financing to Dubai World and Nakheel to 'standstill' and extend maturities until at least 30 May 2010."

In a nutshell, the government was asking banks to let two of Dubai's most famous companies hold off on their mortgage payments. Since they are state-owned, the announcement suggested the city itself was in trouble: governments aren't supposed to default on their debts, and when they do – as Argentina did in 2001 – it causes chaos around the world.

Yesterday, the creditors didn't know whether to laugh or cry. On the one hand, this is an undoubtedly serious situation. Western banks, and the construction firms that built those castles in the sand, are exposed to serious amounts of money. Dubai's total government owings are officially $80 billion, unofficially twice that, and the cash flow to pay that back is a mystery.

More to the point, confidence had returned to the city's dealings, its companies were rehiring, precisely on the same assumptions that have seen rising property prices in London and rising stock markets everywhere. The crisis was over, meltdown averted, and growth was back.

But if Dubai's revival turns out to be fake, perhaps the rest is, too?

Yesterday, share prices around the world fell as the news was absorbed. One analyst asked whether this was the "new Lehman brothers".

On the other hand, the opportunity for a spot of schadenfreude is also great. There was always a culture clash between the two halves of Dubai's expatriate face, between the smart financiers, lawyers and other professionals who were putting down the structure of the revamped city, and those for whom it was being built.

Long-standing residents – none, of course, will be named, as they are ever so discreet – often looked with horror as their clients used the money they had raised to build glitzy villas on Palm Jumeirah, Nakheel's showpiece development, and then give them away in staged publicity stunts to David Beckham.

When Kylie Minogue performed to invited Hollywood celebrities at the opening of Sol Kerzner's kitsch Atlantis Hotel, the public relations merchants beamed assiduously. Those who didn't have to be there turned up their noses. "Disney Dubai," one British expat said to me later. He prefers to commute from Sharjah, the neighbouring emirate, which doesn't allow alcohol, let alone invite pop stars.

"It seems odd to have ended up somewhere so full of tackiness, but that's how it is," one of Dubai's most publicly bullish bankers put it, slightly more tactfully.

One man who could be forgiven for schadenfreude is Christopher Davidson. A writer and academic, his book Dubai: the Vulnerability of Success, warned long before crisis struck that the city had built an unsustainable, hubristic model. He is scathing about the emirate's loyal westerners.

"This is one of the perils of having a large mercenary population," he said. "They will say what you want to hear to your face. Then when it all goes wrong, they go home."

Many have indeed gone home, though not in such large numbers as once feared. You can still see cars covered in dust at Dubai Airport, where owners have abandoned them as they flee, anxious that shortfalls in hire purchase payments could land them in the city's notorious debtors' prison.

"At least I mailed my keys back," said Nicholas Down, an estate agent.

Mr Davidson is even more scathing of Dubai's latest announcement, partly because he says it is 12 months too late, and partly because it does not show that lessons have been truly learned.

All year, Dubai's charismatic ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, has angrily brushed off reports of imminent doom. In September, when asked if he admitted to any mistakes, he said not.

Earlier this month, he said bluntly that those who talked about much-rumoured strains between Dubai and its sister city Abu Dhabi over the crisis should just "shut up".

Mr Davidson said that finally admitting to the full extent of the crisis on the eve of a public holiday was such an "obvious trick" it suggested the city thought it could still "get away with it". It was self-evident, though, that investors still needed reassuring.

"Does anyone in the Dubai government have a grip on the situation?" he asked. "If not, should anyone put their money in the place?"

The irony is that a large part of Dubai Inc still works remarkably well – the bit that hasn't had anything to do with David Beckham, or Paris Hilton, who filmed her latest television show here, or the British wannabes who bought unbuilt holiday homes for the sun-sea-and-sand lifestyle.

Dubai's port is the biggest in the Middle East. Emirates Airlines still makes profits. Passengers at the airport are increasing in number. The city's traders – Iraqis and Iranians, Lebanese and Pakistani – wheel and deal with a lot more ease and comfort than they would at home. "Dubai," one Indian businessman replied when asked which was the best Indian city in which to do business.

Dubai's own business leaders are reluctant nowadays to come forward for interview. For this article, a spokesman for the department of finance – another western public relations consultant – was prepared to defend the system.

"They have taken this step," he said. "It's a long-term decision which has been taken to restructure the financing. It's a process that has just begun. It will take some time to work through."

But even supposing the creditors hold off in their demands – and what choice do they have? – they can hardly send Sheikh Mohammed to debtors' prison: it is still anybody's guess as to where the repayments will come from. A frightening proportion of the debts are due to be repaid in the next three years.

The answer to date has been Abu Dhabi, which sits on a sea of oil and foreign exchange reserves. On Wednesday, its banks said they would stump up $5 billion – though apparently with the proviso that it is not poured down the "bottomless pit" of Nakheel.

Its own royal family regularly puts on a united front with Sheikh Mohammed – the two houses are tied by marriage. A bail-out is surely on its way, but no one knows what conditions may be attached.

When the Ferrari owners set off last month, they did not invite the press, and deliberately left before most residents were up. Perhaps there is a new modesty afoot after all.

But then perhaps they were not going to watch the motor racing at all: maybe they were off to Abu Dhabi to ask for their car loans to be repaid, and their tanks to be filled with petrol.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... Dubai.html
milindc
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by milindc »

Hari Seldon wrote:
which brings me to my main point - if things head south, there is NOWHERE in the world where indics will be safe except india. no red passport, eagle stamped passports will provide 100% cover....
Amen.

P.S.

Had a BR mini-meet today - met with 2 other jingoes and went over 4 full hours of war stories, BR stories, TSP-bashing, it-vity baiting, beer guzzling and D&G immersions onlee.
Jai Ho!
Hari,

Thanks for being a wonderful host.... :D
Time flew...
pgbhat
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by pgbhat »

Singha wrote:which brings me to my main point - if things head south, there is NOWHERE in the world where indics will be safe except india. no red passport, eagle stamped passports will provide 100% cover....excuses and loopholes will be found by the goras unused to not playing top dog.
Amen to that. :twisted:
shyamd
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by shyamd »

I don't know what all this fuss about Dubai is (it was a bubble and everyone knew it). This has been on the cards for a long time, Abu Dhabi already bailed them out in the summer 09. Its all become public. The big guys in the UAE, are actually chilling, none of them were exposed to real estate. They knew the risks, the AQ people they dealt with and the situation they were dealing with.
Sanjay M
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Sanjay M »

Dubai Default Could Hit Airbus, Boeing

Maybe India should look for some cheap deals, with some tech transfer
svinayak
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by svinayak »

shyamd wrote:I don't know what all this fuss about Dubai is (it was a bubble and everyone knew it). This has been on the cards for a long time,
The amount of debt held by the property developers and other industries in Dubai is beyond their capability to pay. the collapse of the credit market will ripple to other financial centers.
Dubai was a center of finance consolidation from the region and other private wealth centers(illegal, drug money, hawala) feed the global finance market. This will collapse
Last edited by svinayak on 28 Nov 2009 00:27, edited 1 time in total.
Paul
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Paul »

to the indics who hold foreign passports and bad mouth india (fortunately not BR members) , I hope karma is coming.
It is better that these Mofos stay outside India and contaminate the gene pool of other countries. When their net worth is worth Kaudi ke Daam..it will be not be below their dignity to get back their Indian passports by hook or crook..they will even take the BD/Pir Panjal infiltration route and WB ration cards if required.

India has enough fifth columnists to keep it down for the next few generations. Let these maggots stay stay where they are.
Neshant
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Neshant »

if things head south, there is NOWHERE in the world where indics will be safe except india.
Its a return to the mothership. This is why the Indian passport may become invaluable to NRIs who need to conduct 'the great escape'.

Image

We will soon see an epidemic of people who cannot pay debts fleeing back to their home country. Countries will be forced to have a berlin wall (exit visas) to prevent people from leaving without permission so they don't run without paying their dues.

But what dues can they pay if they are already bankrupt. The only thing they can do is put you in a debtors prison with a long sentence and hope you plead with your family back home to send money to pay the debt off.

Goras will get different treatment though otherwise US military will show up on the sheiks doorstep and do a gulf storm on him.
KarthikSan
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by KarthikSan »

Philip wrote:Woes of the rich and famous.
I remember reading a few years ago at the peak of the construction boom in Dubai that our own Monkey Khan bought a palm shaped island.
KarthikSan
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by KarthikSan »

Singha wrote:to the indics who hold foreign passports and bad mouth india (fortunately not BR members) , I hope karma is coming.
These are the people who typically left India during the license raj to the lands of milk and honey. Most of them made it big compared to their SDRE relatives in India and suddenly became TFTA. I still see a lot of these dirtbags bad mouth India when in the presence of their gora overlords. I don't give a rats ass about them. These people are influential and rich enough to BUY an Indian passport if the situation comes to that. Even folks who went to Europe or Massa recently on IT- vity stuff are relatively well off and can probably get back to desh and carry on from there. It's the poor laborers, welders, fitters, mechanics etc. who went to the Gelf as modern day slaves who will be most affected. These people are already not paid fair wages if they are paid any at all. When the Gelf goes down they will booted out with nothing but the clothes on their backs. Our netas will give more speeches, win some votes and earn more money but will do nothing to protect our own citizens. :x
Muppalla
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Muppalla »

milindc wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote: Had a BR mini-meet today - met with 2 other jingoes and went over 4 full hours of war stories, BR stories, TSP-bashing, it-vity baiting, beer guzzling and D&G immersions onlee.
Jai Ho!
Hari,

Thanks for being a wonderful host.... :D
Time flew...
Hari and Millind,

It was nice meeting you guys and the weather, location where it is hosted were perfect for the jingoes to discuss anything and everything.
which brings me to my main point - if things head south, there is NOWHERE in the world where indics will be safe except india. no red passport, eagle stamped passports will provide 100% cover....
Future destination and also the destiny.
Muppalla
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Muppalla »

KarthikSan wrote: These are the people who typically left India during the license raj to the lands of milk and honey. Most of them made it big compared to their SDRE relatives in India and suddenly became TFTA. I still see a lot of these dirtbags bad mouth India when in the presence of their gora overlords. I don't give a rats ass about them. These people are influential and rich enough to BUY an Indian passport if the situation comes to that. Even folks who went to Europe or Massa recently on IT- vity stuff are relatively well off and can probably get back to desh and carry on from there. It's the poor laborers, welders, fitters, mechanics etc. who went to the Gelf as modern day slaves who will be most affected. These people are already not paid fair wages if they are paid any at all. When the Gelf goes down they will booted out with nothing but the clothes on their backs. Our netas will give more speeches, win some votes and earn more money but will do nothing to protect our own citizens. :x
Read a short story written by Kashwant Singh called as "Karma". Excellent story for any day.

Regarding Indian passports for the Indina origin folks, it is not a difficult thing or there is any need to do some super-duper things. Every Indian origin person is elgible for OCI. If one possess OCI they can denounce their foreing citizenship and live in India for a year and pay taxes your Indian citizenship will be restored. Don't through away your cancelled Indian passports. They may be your personal gold in future :)
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Jarita »

Acharya, Ramana, Dhu etc
What happened to other website
Singha
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Singha »

morning tea for Hari saar :mrgreen:

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financia ... 7T6L80.htm

Hedge funds mull ditching UK for Switzerland, Asia

By JILL LAWLESS and AOIFE WHITE

They're getting nervous in Mayfair and Belgravia, London's hedge fund heartlands.

Luxury car dealerships, designer boutiques and high-end restaurants have thrived on money from the unregulated investment funds whose discreet offices sit behind the solid wooden doors of those neighborhoods' elegant Georgian buildings.

But now some funds are considering swapping London for the less-regulated alpine air of Switzerland or the emerging markets of Asia as the European Union tightens oversight of high-flying hedge funds. Recent British tax hikes have also spurred funds to consider leaving the city that has long been Europe's undisputed financial capital.

"The mood music has gone very bad here," said Julian Adams, chief executive of London-based Adelante Asset Management Ltd. "It's quite negative for business and for U.K. PLC."

The hedge fund industry is worth $250 billion ($377 billion) in Europe, and has boomed in recent years largely free of government regulation.

The sector didn't cause the global financial crisis, but it has caught the eye of European governments and regulators looking to clamp down on the excessive risk-taking that brought many Western banks to the verge of collapse last year.

European union proposals would require hedge funds and private equity funds to register in Europe and to inform regulators about their trades and strategy.

EU lawmakers and governments also are suggesting that hedge fund managers be subject to the same kind of restrictions and bonuses currently being imposed on regular banks to limit rewards for short-term success.

The proposals have been condemned by the industry as too heavy-handed.

Hedge funds are investment funds for a small number of wealthy or large investors -- minimum investment levels are usually around $1 million -- that invest in a broad range of assets, including shares and commodities.

They were initially called hedge funds because they hedged some of the risks inherent in their investments by methods such as short selling and derivatives. But the term is also now applied to funds that use those methods to increase, rather than reduce, risk as they seek a greater reward.

Because hedge funds are highly mobile, the prospect of tighter EU regulation has raised fears of a capital drain toward safe havens like Switzerland, which is not part of the 27-nation bloc.

For London, long New York's rival as the world's premier financial center, the consequences would be enormous. The hedge fund industry says nearly half of the 40,000 people it employs in Europe are based in the British capital, along with 80 percent of the continent's hedge fund assets.

International Financial Services London, a government-backed body, says London's share of the hedge fund market doubled between 2002 and 2008, to 18 percent of the global total. The industry says it pays 5.3 billion pounds in tax to the British government every year.

There have already been signs of flight since the British government announced it was increasing the tax rate on people earning more than 150,000 pounds ($250,000) a year to 50 percent from 40 percent effective next April. It also has imposed a 30,000 pound levy on "non-domiciled" overseas citizens who reside in Britain and had previously escaped British tax.

"It's bad, it's a brain drain. All the best brains in the market are leaving the U.K. because our financial institutions aren't welcome," said Andrew Bailey, 36, who works in sales in London's financial district.

Major London fund BlueCrest Capital Management is opening an office in Geneva, moving 50 staff to the Swiss city. Another fund, Brevan Howard, also plans to open a Swiss office -- although it denied British newspaper reports that it was shifting operations from London to Switzerland.

Anthony Bolton, one of London's most distinguished fund managers, this week announced he plans to move to Hong Kong to focus on the Chinese market. While not strictly a hedge fund manager, Bolton is renowned for running Fidelity's top-performing open ended Special Situations Fund and his actions are usually considered trend-setting in the industry.

David Butler, a founder of London-based hedge fund advisers Kinetic Partners, said his firm had "15 significant managers looking to leave the U.K. at the moment, all looking to move to Switzerland."

"I think up to 20 percent of hedge fund managers might leave London for somewhere else," he said.

"It's a complex mix of issues and the tax changes announced in April were the last straw."

Adelante's Adams agreed that the tax changes had done more to push hedge funds to leave Britain than any proposed regulation. He said Adelante was committed to London, but he and others were watching the other big hedge funds' moves with interest.

"Our starting position is that we have no desire to leave (but) when you see the bigger names start to move, then yes, that becomes an issue," he said.

He said hedge funds risked becoming the victims of a "politics of envy" by politicians eager to be seen to be clamping down on financial-sector excess.

"You are having a pop at a business that didn't require any bailing out," he said.

His colleague Edward Cowen, also at Adelante Asset Management Ltd., said that because hedge funds "have historically been quite private" they were less able to defend their interests at the political level.

The Alternative Investment Management Association, which represents hedge funds worldwide, says the industry operates very differently from other parts of the financial market and should not follow the same rules.

In particular, the association opposes leverage limits -- similar to capital requirements that oblige banks to put aside a minimum of capital to counter the risk of the loans they are making. Setting such caps is "overly simplistic," it said, and could worsen a tumbling market by forcing funds to sell off investments to replenish eroding capital.

Philip Whyte, an analyst at London-based think tank the Center for European Reform, said proposals to curb hedge funds were politically motivated and targeted an industry that can benefit the financial system by betting against the herd behavior of other players.

"A lot of hedge funds have failed and have cost taxpayers almost no money whatsoever," he said. "Arguably, if hedge funds were more powerful in the run-up to the crisis we would never have had some of the bubbles that we had."

------

White reported from Brussels. Associated Press Writers Raphael G. Satter, Jane Wardell and Rachel Leamon in London contributed to this report.
KarthikSan
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by KarthikSan »

Muppalla wrote:Read a short story written by Kashwant Singh called as "Karma". Excellent story for any day.
Yes. I've read the story a long time ago in English II in high school :mrgreen: Here is a link

The Collected Short Stories of Khushwant Singh
Hari Seldon
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Hari Seldon »

Hedge funds mull ditching UK for Switzerland, Asia
'bout time too, IMHO. Not that much more than noise will happen in this case. UK-stan will backward-bend-GUBO to keep the hedgies on Londonistan shores. All this regulataxory talk is mere noise, UK can't afford the loss in revenue and 'influence' that follows such capital flight. UK-stani backpedaling and downhill skiing on this one will put packees (even British packees) to tear-jerky shame, I predict.
morning tea for Hari saar
Tks Singha saar. Now that chai is done, shall look out for the biskoots to come... :lol:
Neshant
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Neshant »

My prediction is that we will see taxes in Dubai to pay for the debt.

So the city has one last card to play as it currently has no taxes on anything.
shravan
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by shravan »

Bailed-Out AIG Forcing Poor to Choose Between Running Water and Food

AIG raises water rate 50.8%
Middlesboro and Clinton are two tiny, impoverished towns in southern Kentucky with a combined population of 12,000. In 2008, Middlesboro's per capita income was $13,189 a year, only a few hundred dollars more than the average worker earned in third-world Mexico. That is if they were lucky to even get a job. Real unemployment hovers somewhere around 30%, and the state is so broke that half the people eligible for unemployment benefits can't receive them. Life may be tough and most people live in poverty, but that doesn't mean they can't be made a little poorer. That's the lesson locals learned after bailed-out insurance villain AIG took over their water utility and instantly raised rates to squeeze an extra $1 million in profits out of its new customers, forcing some to consider choosing between running water and food.
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Bailed-Out AIG Forcing Poor to Choose Between Running Water and Food
Singha
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown

Post by Singha »

the beast of capitalism will not stop until all the weak in the US have been driven into beggary or forced to emigrate to mehico and canada. perhaps that *is* the plan - a utopian "stepford wives" type country wherein the rich white boys rule, lush country clubs and golf courses, trophy wives made to order by GM and Ford, all menial tasks outsourced to robots, all others chased out beyond the borders and patrolled by robocops.

all controlled and networked by The Overmind. fleets of unmanned merchant ships carrying forth produce from
the slave colonies and factories in china (ruled by a darkseid type tyrant), giant farming robots endlessly tilling the lands of the midwest to produce food, which is conveyed by unmanned trains to the pleasure cities and palaces on both coasts.

a army of hunter droids unleashed on applachia and south to flush out and eliminate all traces of human resistance.
Locked