Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent

[ramana]

The idea can easily be extended to India, to predict locations of possible future attacks. Not only for NE insurgents but also for jihadi elements. My idea is to make it a dynamic model, sort of Bayesian, where every moment intel feedbacks are plugged in as they become available. it will have the past data in it, experts can provide subjective
info (which makes it a bayesian model), create a 3D posterior distribution on the entire country's land mass, and from there look at the modes as possible future attack sites. From a mathematical point of view, it would be highly computational intensive, and dynamic too since streaming reliable intel info ought to be fed in continuously.
Coming back to terrorism/insurgency etc. Apparently, these attacks seem like random,
but over a long period of time a pattaern emerges, and one can fit probabilistic models. But to do this we need to get a nice coherent group of people - a few mathematical statisticians, top intel experts, law enforcement experts, and numerical analysts to carry out fast computations. ISSA/IDSA should do this.

Hi Kati,
I guess you meant a combination of HMM (Hidden Markov Models) - for partially observed stochastic processes - in combination with Bayesian networks. Check out this link http://www.teamqsi.com/doc/asam_journal_paper.pdf for rather simplified representation of IC-814 hijack model as well which sort of details the concept. Incidentally, the hierarchical model of information integration suggested may work in context of our intel network - you have to excuse me as I am quite new to this world - but just have some predictive analytics experience in civilian applications.

Regarding compute capabilities - in the days of ready access to cloud providers, this shouldnt be that difficult.
Cheers

Looks like it bleongs here.

[ramana]

Very interesting a bunch of electrical engineers, with no apparent background to political analysis, sit and decide to model the IC 814 hijacking and publish a paper on it. Looks like there is an interest in academia to apply higher knowledge to assess political situations.

Soon after IC 814 there was thread on BRF to understand the indicators for terrorist attacks. Not much came about of that.

When we see the model developed in the above paper on page 11 Figure 15. we see that the probability of a hijack crosses 0.2 around 8/99, 0.5 around 10/99 and is over 0.75 by 12/99. Yes its based on hindsight but gives a good method which is better than a wild guess.

So samuel and Brihsapati and RamaY what do you think of this technique? Would it be worthwhile modeling 12/11 Lok Sabha attack? And then Mumbai 26/11 for refining it?

[ramana]

X-post...

Ramana and adzegeek,
I just glanced over that paper. Not too difficult. Basically
trying to capture the Posterior distribution of the 'state of nature'
through data (from various sources - like local
police, Interpol, Immigration, Customs, Businesses, etc.)
using a hierarchical Bayes model. What happens is that in such
problems deriving the posterior distribution can be a daunting task
because the theoretical expression requires a high dimensional
integration/summation over the multi-dimensional parameter space.
In such a case one takes the help of various sampling (statistical)
techniques - like Gibbs sampling, MCMC (Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo)
algorithms, etc. which all are essentially based on metropolis-hastings
algorithm. I can go on (like such algoritms depend on internal tuning
parameters which need to be chosen very carefully so that convergence
happens not too slowly) and often some initial conditions so that the
algorithms can converge smoothly.

In my last post what I suggested is very similar, but a slightly different
Empirical Bayes model. One can start with a very simplistic model, and
then can move up making it more and more complex by bringin in
various sources. The challange will be to quantify some qualitative info.

No matter what you do in a Bayesian set-up, you have to deal with
the posterior distribution which holds the key.
to where we expect them to.

OK can you look at the Dec 13 2001, Lok Sabha attack and model it ?

[ramana]

Might be useful to get familiar with this methodology for many threads on this forum

Bracken on Net Assessment

and

Commentary and Reply

[ramana]

I am posting here for the author gives benchmarks and a rubric for analysts.

From Nightwatch 23 July 2009 as a placeholder..

Special Note to New Analysts: Professionalism in Analysis.

This week, NightWatch was asked to give a presentation about professionalism to a group of foreign area experts. After consultation with brilliant, perceptive Readers who are genuine professionals (and who make a living in their professions), NightWatch crafted a presentation, parts of which are contained in this special note.

A young analyst can spend many years in service and never receive a satisfying, guiding or inspiring answer to the question, “what constitutes professionalism in intelligence analysis.” With even a cursory search, the analyst readily could find many words about analysis, analytical standards and certification requirements. Courses on analysis are everywhere now.

Nevertheless, the proliferation of words on these and related topics that NightWatch has reviewed do not come close to matching NightWatch’s now long experience. That is unfortunate.

They all miss the central point that people who work and make money in a profession understand. Besides, statements of goals and definitions ought to be written in simple declarative sentences in active voice using transitive verbs. Many words about foundational issues justifiably raise a suspicion that a writer does not understand what he is writing about.

Old timers owe you young or new analysts a concise answer that can help guide and empower your personal, professional development, even when institutional answers fall short.

Professionalism in intelligence analysis means sound judgment in applying specialized knowledge and experience to solving national security problems.

Professionalism always is about the soundness of judgment in applying knowledge and experience, not about the depth of knowledge, years of education or diversity of experience or even language skills. There are lots of well educated and experienced doctors, accountants, auto mechanics and attorneys in America today that no one should ever consult. Many speak more than one language.

Most professions have concluded that judgment cannot be taught, but can be learned with difficulty and mentoring. A young or new analyst should read and have in his professional library, Dr. Philip Tetlock’s seminal work, Expert Political Judgment. It is a scholarly, cautionary study about the dangers of intellectual hubris. It is a starting point for intellectual wisdom.

Judgment is a cognitive and sensory skill in drawing correct conclusions and making accurate predictions with incomplete information. It is vastly more sophisticated than a mathematical probability calculated by DARPA software.

“Sound” means consistent and dependably high accuracy.

In the NightWatch experience, the passing grade for sound judgment is 85% accuracy in every judgment made … ever. If an analyst cannot sustain 85% accuracy, his customers should consult the predictive market at strategypage.com, instead of him. Its members score 85% accuracy by guessing about the outcome of some 500 issues... consistently and dependably all the time. You can bet on it and they do!

The NightWatch standard is 90% accuracy in its predictive judgments, which it exceeds. It is higher than 90% in its causal, relational and diagnostic judgments. Feedback helps ensure those standards are maintained.

“Consistency” is often overlooked and undervalued. Patients go to doctors who have a reputation for curing illness and saving lives, not once but all the time. Most patients look for healers, more than education. They look at years in practice and results over time. Interestingly, some in the medical profession consider “healing” a gift that cannot be taught.

Most legal clients seek out attorneys who have a reputation for winning in court or negotiations, regardless of where they studied. What counts most in the legal profession is passing the Bar and winning in practice. Lots of stellar and brilliant law school students never get to practice law because they fail to pass the Bar Exam, which tests application of the law. Professions take knowledge for granted. Skill in legal work is often described as a gift that cannot be taught. Some consider it an inherited trait that runs in families.

NightWatch considers predictive accuracy in analysis -- in other words, the ability to think accurately in “future time” -- to be a gift as well. At one brief period in the late 1990, the Directorate of Intelligence, Joint Chiefs of Staff, had six analysts in a pool of 120 who had this gift. The norm was one in 120 analysts, over a 12- year time period. It cannot be taught, but can be cultivated in those who have it, in the NightWatch experience.

Customers of intelligence analysis ought to have high expectations from their analysis centers, i.e., they should “get it right” most of the time. “Getting it right” is a diagnostic judgment that dictates the range of appropriate problem solving solutions, all the time and every time.

”Getting it wrong” constitutes prima facie malpractice and there ought to be consequences for malpractice in analysis in national security affairs because lives may be and have been at great risk because analysts failed. Every profession has penalties for malpractice.

The “specialized knowledge” is the ways living national systems behave so as to thrive when healthy and survive when not. Knowledge of the system of nation states is necessary and useful, but not enough for achieving professional judgment in analysis of international security affairs. Professional analysts of national security threats are more than biological card catalogues.

Knowledge of nation state behavior alone ensures no more than 75% accuracy in predictive judgments, in real life experience in the J2, Joint Chiefs of Staff. In the open source world, Tetlock’s work indicates customers should expect less than 30% predictive accuracy. Both figures are less than the empirical experience of unclassified predictive markets that achieve 85% by pure guesswork. These are chilling and humbling data points.

Thus the aim of intelligence analytical education, training and work experience is to nurture consistent and dependable sound judgment in the application of knowledge and experience in national security problem solving. Put simply, if our well educated and experienced analysts can’t do better than dilettante guessers, they need to get other jobs, and the agencies need to rethink their recruitment criteria.

Intelligence analysis is purposeful behavior, as in any other profession. The professional purpose is not to become brilliant. Knowledge for its own sake is a worthy pursuit, but it is not an attribute of a profession. The goal, purpose and product of the profession of analyst is to apply knowledge and experience to maintain the security of this great Republic.

Astute Readers by now will have deduced that NightWatch has an evaluation process for the accuracy of its judgments. As one incredibly brilliant professional Reader remarked, we ain’t playing bean bag.

NightWatch evaluates four kinds of judgments in its work. They are:

-analytical in the sense of breaking down a phenomenon into its causes and key drivers;

-synthetic in the sense of matching and merging as derivatives of reasoning by analogy;

-diagnostic in the sense of defining the phenomenon and phenomenology of the issue under analysis

-prognostic in the sense of predicting the way ahead.


Knowledge and experience in area and functional studies are interesting. They appear to be necessary and sufficient for analytical and synthetic judgments, as defined above. Those are fairly low grade inferences that in time will be accomplished by computer programs. DARPA is working on those programs now.

They are necessary but not sufficient for diagnosis and prognosis, which are the two cognitive functions or skills that distinguish the professional. Sensory sensitivity is critical in both functions and also often overlooked. Those with the diagnostic gift know always to start from a known state and are keenly sensitive to the slightest departures from normality, especially in international security affairs. The departures always are indicators of change.

Good technical assistants do breakdown, matching and merging work in doctor’s and law offices all over the country. Professional excellence lies in sound diagnosis and prognosis. They require the professional instead of the technician.

The tests of sound judgment that NightWatch always applies are taken from the scientific method: auditability, replicability and inability to be refuted.

Expertise is merely the starting point of what people call “analysis” in the generic use of that much abused term. It is not the end state and not sufficient to achieve the end state described in this note: professional judgment.

Young and new analysts, you are working on developing your professional judgment, not your academic credentials or the number of your deployment badges. Everything else should be devoted to refining and improving your judgment or it has no value to you in the profession of analysis.

[ramana]

Continuing on above theme here is a summary article of Prof. Tetlock's Expert Political Judgement:

Everybody is an expert

Nicholas Kristof's review on the book

Learning How to Think

And the original essay by Isiah Berlin that started all this: The Hedgehog and the Fox

The last one is a pdf 63 pages long.

[ramana]

Here is an essay by B. Raman who envisages a settlement with PRC based on current status quo. Please examine to see if this fits Indian interests?

CHINA'S STRATEGIC INTRUSIONS IN INDIA'S NEIGHBOURHOOD
B.RAMAN

"The Chinese long-term strategy with regard to India has many facets. The trans-border developments are only one---but the most important--- component of their strategy. There are other components---namely, strengthening their relationship with Pakistan in order to confront India with the danger of a two-front war should it try to change militarily the status quo either in respect of China or in respect of Pakistan with regard to Jammu & Kashmir; giving Pakistan a nuclear and missile capability for threatening India; weakening the Indian influence in the rest of South Asia and strengthening their presence and influence in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal; creating a presence for their Navy in the Indian Ocean region and opposing India's attempts to emerge as an Asian power on par with China.

Till recently, we had no well thought-out long-term strategy with regard to China----neither in the border region, nor in South Asia nor in the Indian Ocean region. Only recently the initial rudiments of such a strategy have been appearing. Our attempts to strengthen our strategic relationship with the US and Japan is one such building-block of this comprehensive strategy. Our proactive Indian Ocean policy is another building block. But we find ourselves handicapped in further developing such a comprehensive strategy because we have let our influence be weakened in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal. "

---From my article of September 8,2009, titled "India-China: Dangerous Hysteria" available at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers ... r3398.html

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Despite all the abusive mails and comments that I have been getting and to which I am used over my article deploring the hysteria that is being created by some of our strategic analysts and the media over the trans-border developments, I am not unduly concerned over the reports of continuing Chinese troop intrusions into Indian territory. These intrusions were initially confined to the Eastern sector and now are being reported from other sectors too.

2. When a border is not demarcated on the ground and when there is no common understanding between the two sides as to what constitutes the line of actual control due to the Chinese reluctance to exchange with us maps indicating their understanding of the LAC, such intrusions are bound to take place from both sides. Such intrusions used to be a recurring feature across the India-Myanmar border before the two countries demarcated the border except in the trijunction areas to the north and the south. Such intrusions were also a normal feature across the Sino-Myanmar border in the Northern Shan State and the Kachin State before the Sino-Myanmar border was demarcated in the 1970s except in the northern trijunction where the borders of India, China and Myanmar meet, which remains undetermined and undemarcated till today.

3.What I would be worried about is any illegal occupation by the Chinese of territory claimed by them either in the Arunachal Pradesh or in the Ladakh sector. The 1962 war occurred not because the Government of India ignored reports of intrusions, which are instances of trespass, but because it ignored and played down intelligence reports of illegal occupation of Indian territory by the Chinese in sectors such as Aksai Chin in Ladakh and their incorporating them into Chinese territory. It is our failure and reluctance to counter such outrageous instances of illegal occupation of Indian territory which inexorably led to 1962.

4.The Chinese used to have the habit of illegally occupying territory claimed by them if they had an opportunity of doing so, They did it in Indian territory before 1962. They did it in Myanmar in the late 1960s.They did it with regard to the Philippines when they quietly occupied in 1995 the South China sea island of Mischief Reef, which the Philippines claimed as its territory. After the furore caused by their illegal occupation of the Mischief Reef, I am not aware of any further instance of illegal occupation of foreign territory by the Chinese. If there is, I would be happy to stand corrected.

5. I have stated this many times before and I state this again that the Chinese would continue to stall the border talks with India by even not exchanging maps on the LAC till the Dalai Lama dies. They are not satisfied that that they have pacified Tibet once and for all. The Lhasa uprising of March 2008 has created fresh doubts in their mind about the prospects for continued political stability in Tibet. They are determined to impose on the Tibetans a successor to His Holiness, when he dies, chosen by the Communist Party of China. They do fear that there will be opposition to their nominee from the Tibetans and that this could lead to disturbances in Tibet, in which the Tibetan Youth Congress (TYC) will play an important part. They want to keep a pressure point which they can use against India in order to make it control the TYC. A continuing dispute with India over Arunachal Pradesh will, in their calculation, help them in dealing with any-post Dalai Lama instability. It has been my assessment that the border talks will show some movement for the better or for the worse only after the death of His Holiness and not before.

6. The question for our policy-makers is whether we facilitate the Chinese game of stalling till His Holiness dies or whether we insist on a settlement here and now and if so, what are the options that could be explored. It was in that context that I suggested that we explore the possibility of a status quo plus solution under which in return for the Chinese accepting the status quo in Arunachal Pradesh, we could consider accommodating some of their interests in Tawang, about which they seem to be doing a song and dance. I was amazed by a flood of mails accusing me of suggesting that we hand over Tawang to the Chinese. Where have I said so?

7. What are the Chinese interests in Tawang? Nobody knows for certain. I have asked many retired military officers whether Tawang would have any military significance for the Chinese. They said no. The Chinese themselves have cited what they consider as the historic and religious links of Tawang with Tibet. They even claim that there are records to show that the residents of Tawang paid their taxes to the set-up of the Dalai Lama in Lhasa and not to the British Government in New Delhi. They have not made a similar claim regarding the rest of Arunachal Pradesh. They have also pointed out that one of the previous Dalai Lamas was born in Tawang. The Singapore Foreign Minister, who had recently visited Lhasa, has been quoted as saying that the Chinese are worried that after the death of His Holiness, his followers might proclaim a child of Tawang as the incarnation of His Holiness. If that is so, they should try to get hold of Tawang before His Holiness dies instead of waiting till his death.

8. I have been suggesting to many think tanks in India that instead of getting hysterical over Tawang, we must do a detailed research, analysis and assessment of the Chinese obsession with Tawang. Nobody has done so till now.

9. In a commentary on the observations of the Singapore Foreign Minister contributed to the South Asia Analysis Group (http://www.southasiaanalysis.org), Brig.Subash Kapila, a fine military intelligence officer with whom I had the pleasure and privilege of being associated, has raised a very important question: the Chinese did not show the same obsession with Tawang in the past as they seem to be doing now. He has pointed out that the Chinese even withdrew from Tawang in 1962 after having occupied it. If Tawang was that important to them, they should not have withdrawn from there. Why did they do so?

10. The answer is simple. Long after they withdrew from Tawang, sections of the US media carried reports, based on interviews with the Tibetan Khampas, that the Khampa revolt in the 1950s against the Chinese occupation of Tibet was orchestrated by the USA's Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and India's Intelligence Bureau then headed by the legendary B.N.Mullick. One does not know whether these claims or allegations were correct, but the Chinese presumed that they were. The fact that after the failure of the Khampa revolt, His Holiness and his entourage made a dash for Tawang has added to the strength of the Chinese presumption. The Chinese fear that if there is a joint attempt by the Indian and US intelligence to destabilise Tibet after His Holiness, that attempt could be directed from Tawang. .

11. I am not a military expert. But I have spent nearly three decades in the intelligence profession. From whatever little I know of the craft of intelligence, I could say that if there is one place on the Indo-Tibetan border from where a covert action to destabilise Tibet can be mounted with some success that is Tawang. I am, therefore, not surprised that the Indian presence in Tawang gives them the creeps. When I suggested a status quo plus formula what I had in mind was an Indian guarantee that New Delhi would not allow Tawang to be used to destabilise Tibet after the death of His Holiness in return for a Chinese acceptance of the status quo in Arunachal Pradesh, including Tawang. I do not know whether this will work with the Chinese, but it is worth trying.

12. I am not unduly worried over the continuing reports of Chinese troop intrusions. We are fortunate in having a competent, professional army, which is capable of taking care of them. There is no need for a hysteria over the intrusions. I am more worried about the diplomatic,economic and strategic intrusions which the Chinese are quietly making in our neighbourhood and the inability of our diplomacy to counter them. What are those strategic Chinese intrusions around us in our neighbourhood?


- The winning of the contract for the second stage of the Hambantota port development project in Sri Lanka.
- The winning of the contract for the Colombo-Kalutara road in Sri Lanka.
- The winning of the contract for the improvement of the Kyaukpu port on the Arakan coast of Myanmar.
- The winning of the permission from the military junta of Myanmar for the construction of two pipelines---one for gas and the other for oil--- from Kyaukpu to Yunnan.These pipelines will carry not only gas and oil produced locally but also brought by Chinese tankers from West Asia and Africa. We claim to have great influence over the junta in Myanmar.It has reportedly agreed to sell to China gas found by a consortium of which an Indian public sector company was a member. After millions of rupees of Indian investment, gas is struck and the Myanmar junta sells that gas to the Chinese. We watch it sucking our thumbs.
- The reported furtive negotiations with the Government of Bangladesh for a pipeline to carry gas from Bangladesh to Yunnan via the Arakan area of Myanmar.
- The proposal for a railway line from Gwadar on the Mekran coast of Pakistan to Xinjiang for which a feasibility study was ordered by the Pakistan Government two weeks ago.
- Talks with the Pakistani and the Iranian authorities for a gas pipeline to take Iranian gas to Xinjiang.

13. What contracts of strategic significance India has won in our neighbourhood? Zilch.

14. What progress India has made in strengthening its strategic presence in its neighbourhood? Zilch.

15. How effective Indian strategic and economic diplomacy has been in our neighbourhood? Zilch.

16. It is time to be worried and howling over the way China has made strategic inroads in our neighbourhood and over the failure of our diplomacy to counter it.

17. Our Army can take care of China. Can our diplomats take care of China? ( 14-9-09)

We should also examine why points 13 thru 15 didnt get any traction and what is preventing them? The answers might be surprising.

[brihaspati]

Tawang seems a lame excuse. The Dalai Lama can be reincarnated anywhere, apparently precedence was also in Mongolia. And to add to the twist he could be a "she". Here is the ref :
http://www.claudearpi.net/maintenance/u ... aasnun.pdf

If it is not militarily important, why should China be worried about? Only possibility taht remains then is deception. The main point of focus is not Tawang at all. But PRc is building it up to distract from real buildups elsewhere - probably Aksai Chin, and or NA.

[ramana]

Once we are done we need to develop pictures like in this pdf.

http://www.water.anu.edu.au/pdf/2009/pu ... l_2008.pdf

I want one for ISI and its interactions

[ramana]

I am reading the book "Thinking in Time" by Neustadt and May that gives a template to using history as a tool for the present. Someone has made a word document of the process and am linking it here.

Thinking in Time - Mini Methods


One thing is one needs an accurate history book and not propoganda to know the past. Thanks to the JNU mis-interpretation of history it will be difficult to use this process in India.

[ramana]

Some time back I had asked for a map with India at the center.

http://www.mapshop.com/Raised_Relief/Co ... asiaRR.jpg

[Manish_Sharma]

But even the declining West managed to crush the advance of Islam into Europe, which relatively economically stronger South failed, and the strong Far East still managed. But the process of entering the subcontinental powerhouse was perhaps in a sense also process of decline of Islam. We can compare this to the classic guerrilla theory of allowing the enemy to penetrate deep into your territory where you chew him up slowly piece by piece - but the territory in this case is an ideological one. So we can perhaps compare the difference between the western and eastern end of the economic swing as two different ideological warfare styles : the west stops the enemy at the border - the east opts for the guerrilla tactics. The west uses its pagan past and its newfound revealed fervor to stop encroachment of "enemy" ideology at the gates - the east decides to allow the "enemy" ideology in and destroy it through digestion. But it is possible that this is not done consciously, probably not done consciously at all - but something in the trajectory of the society concerned that built this attitude into them.

My hypothesis would be extreme poverty or extreme prosperity, both will give the "guerrila" attitude towards hostile ideologies, and middle road levels would give rise to "stopping the enemy at the gates" attitude. Both will have socio-economic reasons to be less obsessed with ideology and therefore lack strong unified ideological centres comparable to having a strong military of a national core. In such cases, faced with a "more well equipped, determined, and better organized" enemy, the classic strategy that develops is the "guerrilla" resistance, and the same happens in the ideological arena too. It is the middle roader who needs and has time for strong "ideological" centres, and uses this to stop the "enemy" at the gates.

Now the allowing in the "guerrilla" case, is possibly passive. So things can change once the hostile ideology comes in. If the new ideology proves attractive enough, it may replace all the pre-existing ones - if not it will begin to be slowly digested beyond recognition. I would rather think that the Islamic heartland now shows extremes of poverty and prosperity, and India is now in the middle shelf. It is perhaps natural for India now to develop the "stop at the border" attitude and a reverse process of "expansion". It may seem contradictory to my other comments about increasing Jihadization - but in a long term sense they are not contradictory. The increasing Jihadization is the symbol of a panic reaction from those parts of the Islamic world which realize the slide into extremes of "poverty/prosperity" and its potential dangers for their way of life.

Brihaspatiji, don't know how it works out:

PART 1

Step 1: Islamic aggression/invasion which leads to---------conversion of large chunks of population by coercion.

Step 2: Sufis talking sweet about hindu muslim ekta which leads to-----------conversion of even larger chunk of population.

Step 3: Spreading the Arabic/Persian culture through the poets in old times and in modern times through Hindi Cinema. While painting Sadhus and Hindu Gurus as charlatans in literature and movies thus bringing people even closer to Sufism/Islamic culture.

Step 4: Making the muslim populated areas into Islamic Nations [Afganistan, porkistan, BD] and fortifying these countries in such a way that no other religion can ever flower their.
Step 4B: Securing Kashmirlike m'hmdn populated areas through article 370 in not yet Islamic country like India. Praising the Secular and tolerant nature of the people to spread faster through overpopulating etc.

Step 5: MOST IMPORTANT SPREADING WAHABBI CULTURE AND PROPOGATING TO INDIANISED MUSLIMS THAT PURE WAHABBISM IS THE ONLY TRUE WAY. THIS WAY THINGS COME FULL CIRCLE, NOW THE PEOPLE CONVERTED THROUGH SUFIS ETC. AND THEIR NEW GENS ARE TURNED INTO DENYING COMPLETE ROOTS HERE + THERE LINKS TO SUFIS WHO HAD ORIGINALLY CONVERTED THEM.
WHEN PM v.p. SINGH HAD ANNONCED MOHAMMAD'S BIRTHDAY AS GAZETTED HOLIDAY, SAUDIS OBJECTED ON THE BASIS THAT IN TRUE WAHABI ISLAM EVEN PROPHET IS SAME LIKE OTHER PEOPLE, AS ALL MEN ARE EQUAL IN GOD'S EYES AND HE PICKED M'HMMD JUST RANDOMLY FOR HIS MESSAGE NOT BECAUSE OF SOME SPECIAL METHOD.
NOW THROUGH SIMI, DAR-UL-ULOOM FROM KERALA TO UP ALL ARE GETTING SAME DOCTRINE IN URDU AND ARABIC.

So doesn't above show the failure of Guerilla tactics of East failing miserably. I mean nobody can imagine Afghan, Pak or BD even allowing any other religion to flower again, while WAHABBISING THEIR OWN POPULACE CONTINUOUSLY.


or
as you pointed out that extreme poverty stricken parts of Islam-------would they convert to christianity?

and the extreme rich ones convert to visions of buddhists/ramana/krishnamurty like rich in West?

From the ideological viewpoint, just as in the case of food, perhaps not all end-products of digestion should be retained within the body and excreted. Allowing Islamic components to infiltrate and then get digested into forms unrecognizable should then be reapplied to the infiltrators. If it is the Islam or EJ inspired effects or elements absorbed into the Indic, and has become the modern Indic - there should not be any problem in imposing this back on the inflitrating elements?

Could you please explain and expand on this one, Is it possible to do it? Or in some way in past tried? Or being tried currently?

[brihaspati]

Manish_Sharma ji,
I had already written that

Now the allowing in the "guerrilla" case, is possibly passive. So things can change once the hostile ideology comes in. If the new ideology proves attractive enough, it may replace all the pre-existing ones - if not it will begin to be slowly digested beyond recognition.

My point was that when Islamism entered India, India was "rich" and so it adopted the casual "guerrilla" tactic both in material as well as ideological arena. However, once the "new ideology" came in, it proved "effective" enough to replace pre-existing ones to a certain extent. But since this was incomplete, the digestion process also began.

One of the problems is that the British occupation period and the regime that got power from them, partially reversed or slowed down this process of digestion. By the end of Muslim and British exploitation, India had become poor, so that it again adopted the "guerrilla" tactic. Allowed renewed Islamism and EJ'sim.

So we should consider, the new Wahabbization as a new ideology that is seeking to come in. I would consider that India now is heading towards the "middle" zone now. So it will gradually develop a hard "stop" at the border attitude. This will be both at the political level as well as ideological level.

The last quote you give was written by me partly sarcastically in the context of loud clamour by many - that the modern "Indic" is the result of absorption of many aspects of "Islamism" or "EJ"ism. My argument was that if "Indic' had so much in common with Islamism or EJ'ism, and had fundamentally changed in interaction with them imbibing features from them - then such a tremendously modified Indic should not be unacceptable by Islamics and EJ'ists!

My personal view? Wherever modern higher education and pride in pre-Islamic cultural memory is still strong, Islamic society will face cataclysmic "black" revolutions to violently and perhaps sadistically overthrow Ulemaic regimes. But for this to happen, these Islamic regimes will first have to liberalize flow of ideas from the non-Islamic world and modern higher education. Iran is facing trouble because its theologians tried to pretend to be modern/liberal "more" than or in contrast with KSA. Even the cosmetic measures to fool world opinion as well as internal dissent - have brought on tremors for the regime.

This is one hope I have of a faint glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel - that one day Iran will have a bloody crushing of all its radical theologians and a deconstruction of Islamism as the fabric of the nation - replacing it by old-fashioned Airanya/Persian pride as the foundation of the nation. If Iran falls from Islamist theologians - that will be the beginning of the end for Islamism in ME.

[Manish_Sharma]

Brihaspatiji Thank you for taking time to clear up these things for me, I am grateful.

Interestingly as you mentioned Iran a very curious coincident happened few days back. As I am travelling these days, in the train 3 Irani men and a rajnishee were my neighbours. After sometime they were talking and interestingly they knew a lot about Osho rajnish. They told this guy that there are lot of his books in print in Iran and one guy asked him about a certain book called "reaching the god through sexual experience". And this rajnishi told them no its called "from sex to superconciousness". Not only that he gifted them this book which they happily took. They also talked in someway about mullahs and clergy etc. and mostly iranian's remarks were ''the clergy is stupid" quite shocking..................
as I love to read J Krishnamurty and mentioned to them about him shockingly they knew about him too and read few of his books. Now I read you writing about Iran example, surely there must be something afoot that country.

[sanjaykumar]

Some Iranians are surprisingly sophisticated; Pakistanis like to compare themselves to them but zamin asmaan ka furq, as they say.

[kshirin]

Some time back I had asked for a map with India at the center.

http://www.mapshop.com/Raised_Relief/Co ... asiaRR.jpg

What a beautiful map. I had been looking for an India centric map which made the point so beuatifully, India's land and sea borders, juxtaposed against each other. If at Independence this simple geographical fact plus a concept of our extended neighbourhood had been put together, India could have realised how significant it is in the overall game. Now the advantage seems to be with China unless we get our act together, which we still may, after all, history has got to be on the side of democracy, didnt they defeat Hitler? To our North, China is reaching its tentacles into Central Asia and snapping up their and Russian energy resources where it can, seeking western markets as well as energy security independent of the sea lanes across which India could have maintained a more watchful eye, and perhaps moving towards a future when energy supplies need not be paid for in petro dollars; to our South, China is reaching into the seas and oceans lapping our shores, cutting off our options and freedom to even protest should our rights be infringed. But we still havent figured out how to play this game and what leverages to create and use. Except at BFR!
Excellent resources found on this page, thanks, though the maths on the first two went completely over my head.

[ramana]

Yes its an awesome map that shows the geographic constraints around India. The freedom struggle leaders did consolidate the region to the best of their ability. Its for us to take it further within the Westphalian and UN system just as the Europeans have managed.

[Hari Seldon]

Yup, greater IOR confederation has to become a reality. Currencies come and go, even fossil fuels are finite.... the next set of common interests that bind the IOR confederation has to be something else. Wondering what that might be - a Th based N-power grid perhaps?

[ramana]

RamaY And Samuel

UML for the IT Business Analyst: A Practical Guide to Object-Oriented Requirements Gathering
Publisher: Course Technology PTR | ISBN: 1592009123 | edition 2005 | PDF | 401 pages | 14,31 mb

The IT Business Analyst is one of the fastest growing roles in the IT industry. Business Analysts are found in almost all large organizations and are important members of any IT team whether in the private or public sector. "UML for the IT Business Analyst" provides a clear, step-by-step guide to how the Business Analyst can perform his or her role using state-of-the-art object-oriented technology. Business analysts are required to understand object-oriented technology although there are currently no other books that address their unique needs as non-programmers using this technology. Assuming no prior knowledge of business analysis, IT, or object-orientation, material is presented in a narrative, chronological, hands-on style using a real-world case study. Upon completion of "UML for the IT Business Analyst," you will have created an actual business requirements document using all of the techniques of object-orientation required of a Business Analyst. "UML for the IT Business Analyst" puts together all of the technology pieces needed to proficiently perform the Business Analyst role.

Any use for the Project?

[ramana]

I am reading the book "Thinking in Time" by Neustadt and May that gives a template to using history as a tool for the present. Someone has made a word document of the process and am linking it here.

Thinking in Time - Mini Methods


One thing is one needs an accurate history book and not propoganda to know the past. Thanks to the JNU mis-interpretation of history it will be difficult to use this process in India.

Google book:

Thinking in Time


The last chapters in this book is on Personality placement. With little bit of skill and public knowldege of a subject's bio data one can create a 90% profile which can be used to predict potential behavior!

[ramana]

AmberG, Can you post details of the balloon competetion in this thread?

I think the process of evaluating conflicting data from all sources is relevant to this thread.


Thanks, ramana

[RamaY]

Ramanaji,

I got busy with personal/work stuff recently. But, I am still researching for a suitable tool. In the meantime I am collecting data. Let me see if I can share the working document in google spreadsheet.

We need a tool that can

- Allow graphical representation of events, impacts, and trends (I liked NetLogo for this, and its built-in random event generator)
- Allow easy data manipulation (Excel is the best thing so far), and what-if analysis
- Support a large DB (data points, their modifications/changes, and trends)
- Simple programming (to define interdependencies and rules) - a 4GL?

[Amber G.]

AmberG, Can you post details of the balloon competetion in this thread?

I think the process of evaluating conflicting data from all sources is relevant to this thread.


Thanks, ramana

Ramana - According to email: http://balloon.mit.edu/will put update and more info. Also check out some mit blogs like
( for example this one for additional info/links.

I know a few who were more involved. The algorithms are/were quite complex - from what I know (from emails/ second hand info) there were a few different algorithm which gave the same output when MIT reported the results to DARPA to be confirmed that they were right. (Other teams/algorithms eg 10balloon.com or openredballoon.com did not do that well).

Few things:

1. the offer of reward (Not only to spotters but to those who invited the spotters - or those who invited the inviter who invited the spotter etc) change the dynamics from 'social networking' to more of a 'treasure hunt'
2. Asking for photograph in email helped to sort out some obvious disinformation.
3. Invitation based volunteers (where one can judge the credibility of submission - MIT email address can not be faked that easily - and all have to pre-resister ).

Above all first class brains from the faculty/students who wrote the algorithms from "the field of network science, complex systems theories and machine learning algorithms " to rule out the dishonest reports of spotting the balloons

(Leader of the team is Dr. Crane (MIT Media Labs) )

I am waiting for some e-mail(s) for more details .. more of it, I will post here it if will be of interest.

Department of defense is, of course, very interested in all the learnings. It will debrief the MIT's team.

MIT's algorithms etc could be applied (or further developed) in search of missing children and how to improve monetary reward schemes to police (or other Law enforcement agency) and their informers... and how best to spot terrorists...

One interesting episode was there was a lot of hulla gulla about a fake sighting of a red balloon in RI .. (Fooled a lot of people - Facebooks/twitter and even some local newspapers) .which was actually a photo-shopped image which took a life of its own..(It did not fool the MIT's team)

[ramana]

Thanks. So should anyone in the field of decison making under uncertainity.

[ramana]

From Night Watch, 12/21-12/22
End of year advice on analysis with examples:

Notes to new analysts: Violent instability is centripetal at every level of government. That means that the insurgents must always seize and hold the center of political authority, whether that is a district center, a provincial capital or the national capital. The insurgents know that holding the countryside is necessary but not sufficient to govern, unless it is a stepping stone to holding the centers of government power. Most district centers are the historic locations of markets, commerce, religious practice, and culture in some combination. This convergence of functions explains why one village becomes a district center over others.

In the core provinces of the insurgency, Taliban or other anti-government groups offer the services of a counter-government, including dispute resolution and administration of justice. The ability of an insurgent group to provide such services is an important threshold in the evolution of an insurgency into a revolutionary movement. Yet they have proven unable to seize and hold district centers.

The Taliban are stuck in that they act like local government, but everyone knows they are not. Most importantly, they lack the capability to change this condition unless the government and coalition abandon district centers.

Thus, what the Taliban do is provide a convenience to the villagers that might be workable, locally, and even popular, but everyone knows power spreads outward from the district, provincial and national centers. If the government fails to hold or recover a center, it risks losing the possibility of recovering the countryside in that district. Even a national flag over a police station means right to govern, which the Taliban lack and know it, which is why they keep doing the same old thing in areas they should have consolidated long ago.

Afghanistan: Today the Taliban claimed to control 80% of Afghanistan in a web posting. That is baloney.

The NightWatch data base shows they dominate the countryside in 14 of the 34 provinces of Afghanistan, meaning they have permanent fighting units in those core provinces and active shadow governments.

Anti-government fighters stage attacks in about half the 400 districts, but about 75% of those are in the core provinces. They hold no district or provincial centers.

The lackluster fighting reported in December indicates the Taliban and other anti-government groups appear to have settled in for the winter. There is no surge in attacks; no high winter profile, at least as of 22 December.

The anti-government groups do like to talk. The fighting data contradict today’s boast.

Notes to new analysts: Internal political instability cycles in three phases. The first is under-reaction. This occurs when the government underestimates the volatility of a situation, such as the outcome of the Iranian elections this summer and fails to take prudent precautions appropriate to the potential threat.

Governments then apply the principle of solving the problem as quickly as possible at the lowest cost. Thus the next step is an asymmetrical response called over-reaction. As protests continued after the elections, the government cracked down.

Now over-reaction can work if the opposition numbers are small and they members are concentrated. When the opposition is dispersed and numerous, crackdowns intensify and escalate the opposition.

The third phase occurs in the event crackdowns fail to suppress the opposition. This is known as concession. The government needs to gauge whether the crackdown worked so it lightens up. This occurred in early autumn in Iran, thereby completing the first full cycle.

Montazeri’s death appears to have generated a second cycle on a compressed timeline. Peaceful mourning services were allowed but later revoked when it appeared that services would be held in many more cities and promised to be better attended than expected. The government rapidly moved to the crackdown tactics, over-reacting and hardening the opposition.

The situation is again entering a concession phase, in which the government will need to assess whether its bombast and brutality have succeeded. The phenomenology guarantees that the government response in the second cycle has made the opposition worse and more widespread. Moreover, the government looks foolish, if not inept, to its people and the outside world.

The opposition in Iran is not capable of effecting the political changes it advocates. However, the government is unable to contain it, much less suppress it. A third cycle will begin in a few weeks. When security forces begin to join the protestors, then the Khamenei regime has begun the steep slide. As yet security forces respond to orders and have not crossed the line to join the protestors.

[Satya_anveshi]

-post self deleted to move to appropriate thread

[ramana]

Samuel and RamaY, I just finished listening on NPR to this author's exposition on game theory and decision making. He gives the craft and a web tool. Tell me if we can look at say five to ten players in this.

Home Page:
http://www.predictioneersgame.com/

Link to game page:

http://www.predictioneersgame.com/game

He clearly said Af-Pak is Fak-Ap for US inthe radio talk as US cant afford the price that TSP wants to go after OBL.

NYT Article:

Can Game Theory Predict When Iran will go Nuclear?

Note where he first started his craft! Apna Desh.

[RamaY]

Ramanaji,

I checked the game, and it looks good to check for possible outcomes (and payoff strengths) for a given problem scenario. I think we can use this to game JK, POK, Aksaichin, TSP, Af-Pak, Pakthunkwa kind of scenarios.

Let me explore it further and see if I can build one sample scenario. I would be interested to find the "influencing factors" that are achievable, and tips the balance in one's favor.

BTW, how are you listening to NPR at 3PM? I used to listen to it while driving back home.

[RamaY]

Ramanaji

read the NYT article, and glad to see my thoughts are close to what they say. It is interesting to note the point where the model predicted increased US influence to pacify Taliban influence.

I will research further on this. I can cross check the Influenceable-stakeholders so I know my own model/dbl is on right track.

Thanks for the reference!

One more thing- did he say that US can't afford the price Pakistan demands to go behind OBL? I wonder what that could be... JK or JDAM on India or merging AFG in TSP?

[RamaY]

^^^

I wasn't thinking...

If PAK gives OBL to massa, paki public will see it as a betrayl and would revolt. Mullahs will come into power. Since KSA stays quite during this, it will be seen as part massa gang. Since massa tightens gates of heaven the only remaining option will be a JDAM on KSA oil fields....

Plausible?

[ramana]

Website on Political Economy of Terrorism

Ethan Beuno De Mesquita

[SriniY]

Ramanaji,

I got busy with personal/work stuff recently. But, I am still researching for a suitable tool. In the meantime I am collecting data. Let me see if I can share the working document in google spreadsheet.

We need a tool that can

- Allow graphical representation of events, impacts, and trends (I liked NetLogo for this, and its built-in random event generator)
- Allow easy data manipulation (Excel is the best thing so far), and what-if analysis
- Support a large DB (data points, their modifications/changes, and trends)
- Simple programming (to define interdependencies and rules) - a 4GL?

http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/hans_ ... verty.html

RamaY,
Not sure what you need, but would the tool demonstrated in the talk be of help.

[Altair]

Hello Gentlemen,

I have few pieces of what could be a big puzzle. I dont know if I missed some pieces. Some of the pieces may not be part of the puzzle at all. However, it is imperative that we solve this puzzle and get the big picture before its too late. I get a feeling we are running out of time.

1. Attack on CIA station chief forcing them to go to new protocols in the middle of a major investigation.
2. Aman tamasha campaign.Now!!??
3. Failed attempt to explode flight 253 from Amsterdam to Detroit. US Prez goes ape$hit after the community.
4. Indian Army chief issues a press note which wets the pants of entire Pak fauj.
5. Unscheduled Corps commander meet.

I am not sure, but 1 and 3 could be decoys. Someone is trying very hard to divert the attention of intelligence community. I am sure with nice team work we can piece it together if we can collect more pieces in time. JDAM was my first thought.

Jai Hind

[RamaY]

http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/hans_ ... verty.html

RamaY,
Not sure what you need, but would the tool demonstrated in the talk be of help.

SriniY garu,

Thats cool. I want that software for free

If we have that software and then we can add a random number generator easily and we are all set to play around!

[SriniY]

http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/hans_ ... verty.html

RamaY,
Not sure what you need, but would the tool demonstrated in the talk be of help.

SriniY garu,

Thats cool. I want that software for free

If we have that software and then we can add a random number generator easily and we are all set to play around!

RamaY,

Dont call me garu. I am just a student. As for the software, it seems Google bought it and it is available free of charge as "Motion Chart". It is programmable as well.

[ramana]

I think these comments are more pertinent here. The need for tight analysis....

Nightwatch

http://nightwatch.afcea.org/NightWatch_20100108.htm

Special comment: In 42 years, NightWatch has never seen a Presidential directive to intelligence and security entities remotely like that promulgated this week. It is a worthy document in intent and precision.

Its weak point is that implementation relies on the same people who failed, twice.

The two most extraordinary Presidential directives to the Director of National Intelligence have received no media coverage. The first is to “take further steps to enhance the rigor and raise the standard of tradecraft of intelligence analysis …” In other words, the analysts failed. They need more rigor in their analyses and better “tradecraft.”

The intent of the directive is clear, but its execution is problematic. Analytical tradecraft is in the dock. Commentators and very experienced practitioners frequently cite the “new” challenges in this “new” form of war. (Counter-insurgency is hardly new.)

The pubic is bombarded with “Newness,” but no transformation has occurred.

NightWatch senses that the intelligence failings cited by the President and cited by General Flynn are not failings of insight about new threats; they are the longstanding failings of complaisant analysts and supervisors, who shirk their responsibilities.

The 1978 HPSCI report on Warning found that in every crisis since Pearl Harbor, there always was enough information for competent analysts to issue actionable warning. The intelligence failures of the post-World War II era and the Cold War always were failures of analysts, not collectors and not systems.

President Obama’s statement repeats those findings in spades, 32 years later!

If it means anything, analysis transformation has to mean creation of a systematic, structured approach to analysis that always and everywhere is replicable, auditable, non-idiosyncratic and non-anecdotal and which has application across boundaries and groups.

There are few lessons for young analysts in idiosyncratic and anecdotal personal expertise. No one can live another person’s experiences and experts seldom agree on the significance of their experiences. So how can that mess be taught? Intelligence must escape this trap.

NightWatch insists that “expertise is necessary but not enough” to achieve actionable warning. To that assertion must now be added that sharing is not enough.

High predictability and the ability to warn in an actionable time frame require knowledge of threat phenomenology, the study of which has been neglected, except possibly at the tactical level. For example, two pieces of evidence – payment in cash for a transatlantic air trip and without checked luggage -- are the embodiment of actionable, phenomenological data.

Cash and no bags are universal red flags of threat that create a reasonable suspicion that justifies, nay compels, fail-safe security measures. This should be a “no-brainer.“

The other Presidential directive of special interest is, “Ensure resources are properly aligned with issues highlighted in strategic warning analysis.” The President issued a new directive on strategic warning analysis; not risk management, but warning. That has not happened since before the collapse of the Soviet Union.

One odd thing, though, is that the Defense Department and all its agencies, except the National Security Agency, received the directive but no direct guidance. DoD has more counter terrorism analysts in its national-level agencies and in the combatant commands than all the other agencies combined. Hmmm…

I think a through understanding of the threats without being termed Conspiracy Theory is needed to see the signals.

[RamaY]

RamaY,

Dont call me garu. I am just a student. As for the software, it seems Google bought it and it is available free of charge as "Motion Chart". It is programmable as well.

This is nice. Will try soon.

[ramana]

Moved Off Topic posts to Distorted history thread. This thread is for math modelling the Geostrategic Dynamics for Indian Sub-continents, ie state formation and collapse in the region.

Thanks, ramana

[ramana]

RamaY, Awesome simulation. Thanks for the effort.

ramana

[ramana]

Brilliant Theo! Explains the Bangla Dehs migration into India. We can soon expect a flood from TSP as the collapse. No wonder Aman ki Tamasha is going on.

Again shows need for peaceful implosion of Pakistan ideology is needed.

thanks again!

This is a much more legitimate question than many here may realize.

In under 5 years the per Capita GDP of India, esp. the prosperous west will be 5-6 times the per capita GDP of Pakistan. Presently it is about 2.5 - 3 times.

Some thing strange happens to the migration patterns of people once the imbalance reaches 5 times. The opportunity pull becomes too strong.

Take a look at this map of the present migration pattern around the world.



Also look at the NY times map.

http://www.nytimes.com/ref/world/200706 ... APHIC.html

Take special note of the Mexico to US, East Europe to West Europe, Africa to South Africa and Indonesia to Malaysia dynamics.

All of these are in the 5-10 times GDP imbalance w/ cultural familiarity.

Once the "mental map" is created by the vanguard it will be almost impossible to stop.

Existing population density is disregarded almost completely.