Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 08 Dec 2009 01:22

Jarita wrote:Folks,
Some of you are old enough to remember but did Morarji Desai not blow the cover of several Indian agents in Pakistan?

not that I read it then but so the reports say. those agents either died horribly or rotted in jail.

gujral did something similar in effect though less callous, he forced intel agencies to roll back ALL operations in foreign soil.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 08 Dec 2009 01:27

anyway, what we are discussing is not something that is unknowable to any individual of average intelligence who reads the papers/ watches the news. nothing here is exactly classified stuff. you can rest assured ISI already knows all this, we are simply informing each other i.e common Indians.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 08 Dec 2009 01:40

Rahul M wrote:
Jarita wrote:Folks,
Some of you are old enough to remember but did Morarji Desai not blow the cover of several Indian agents in Pakistan?
not that I read it then but so the reports say. those agents either died horribly or rotted in jail.

gujral did something similar in effect though less callous, he forced intel agencies to roll back ALL operations in foreign soil.

wow. They were blatant traitors and killers. And they walked free after that???? We should never forget this.
Gujral was not so benign either
It has come out in India Today[citation needed], an Indian news magazine, that I K Gujral, during his tenure as PM, as part of his doctrine, wound up the Research and Analysis Wing's (R&AW) - India's external intelligence agency - covert operations in Pakistan. Acting in the belief of earning the 'goodwill' of Pakistan, he shut down R&AW's covert activities, and gave details of R&AW's assets in Pakistan, which were painstakingly built over many years. It has been alleged that this led to physical elimination of R&AW's human assets through extrajudicial means by Pakistan's intelligence agencies. This has been severely criticized in the light of the November 2008 Mumbai attacks and signifies the final futility of his doctrine - belief in the 'inherent goodwill' of openly hostile neighbours. This is his defining legacy. Manmohan Singh also followed the same lines and signed a controversial pact with Pakistan in Egypt.[citation needed]
He is a member of the Club of Madrid

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 08 Dec 2009 01:43

They were blatant traitors and killers.

No Morarji Bhai did it for the Gandhian cause in which he had deep faith.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 08 Dec 2009 01:44

gandharva wrote:
They were blatant traitors and killers.
No Morarji Bhai did it for the Gandhian cause in which he had deep faith.

What is wrong with us that we can accept such pple?

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 08 Dec 2009 01:51

What is wrong with us that we can accept such pple?

Wonder of democracy caused by aloofness among Indians for matters related to state due to long period of alien rule. This was mentioned by Narayan Murthi in one of his speeches in another context though.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 08 Dec 2009 01:52

Rahul M wrote:

anyway, what we are discussing is not something that is unknowable to any individual of average intelligence who reads the papers/ watches the news. nothing here is exactly classified stuff. you can rest assured ISI already knows all this, we are simply informing each other i.e common Indians.

Average Intelligence, not -- I can guarantee that
Average Indian fed on NDTV and IBN , not - Guarantee that too
Extrapolating the average Intelligence bit to ISI -- not sure about that either

It's not a question of news reports etc that are concerning. It's the deductions a fairly intelligent and large group of people are coming up with. That is what would be of value to outside groups. That is what they pay their folks to do.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Dec 2009 02:01

An Intelligence Agency has the following missions:

1) Research and Analysis to support the govt's decision making misson
2) Secret Intelligence: Covertly gather info not available otherwise
3) Techical Communications & Images: Monitoring and breaking codes and ciphers & image intelligence
4) Counter Intelligence: Monitor and arrest enemy spies.
Better yet disinform them
5) Covert Ops in other countries.

So which of these did Morarji Desai stop? Which ones did IK Gujral curtail?

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 08 Dec 2009 02:20

Ramana,
Is that a question?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Dec 2009 02:20

Not to you, but out in general.

Marut · Post by **Marut** » 08 Dec 2009 02:35

Ramanaji,

Let me hazard a guess based on my limited knowledge of what happened during Morarji Desai & IK Gujral's time.

Morarji Desai:
1. No effect. This was more of desk job and hence thought to be be benign.
2. Affected to quite an extent. Read about a case where he turned down and exposed the Pakistani source who would have given us the Kahuta's blueprints

3 & 4. No seemingly negative effect. Nothing significant or positive stands out as well. Basically status quo. Haven't heard anything curtailed for IB counterintelligence in that time.
5. In line with 2 above. Though no particular sources have elaborated on this aspect, it should be nor surprise to find the covert ops being curtailed severely.

MD's actions stemmed primarily from his belief that R&AW was acting as cat's paw for IG during emergency and hence needed to be brought down. Kao's meeting with him did change MD's opinion but the damage was already done by then. Surprisingly most of his actions affected the overseas ops ability although his grouse was with the internal actions!

IK Gujral:
His actions were similar to MD above. Although his motivations were different. He rolled back and shut down R&AW covert ops & ability overseas especially in Pakistan. This was an unilateral action as part of his confidence building measure to promote Indo-Pak peace

IB doesn't seem to be affected by his actions.

Again, all the above is from open source articles written over the years by various commentators. Additionally I haven't read anything about the effects of their actions on IB. Any gyaan in that regard will be highly appreciated. TIA.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 08 Dec 2009 02:42

Many have called Gujral a modern day traitor
It has come out in India Today[citation needed], an Indian news magazine, that I K Gujral, during his tenure as PM, as part of his doctrine, wound up the Research and Analysis Wing's (R&AW) - India's external intelligence agency - covert operations in Pakistan. Acting in the belief of earning the 'goodwill' of Pakistan, he shut down R&AW's covert activities, and gave details of R&AW's assets in Pakistan, which were painstakingly built over many years. It has been alleged that this led to physical elimination of R&AW's human assets through extrajudicial means by Pakistan's intelligence agencies. This has been severely criticized in the light of the November 2008 Mumbai attacks and signifies the final futility of his doctrine - belief in the 'inherent goodwill' of openly hostile neighbours. This is his defining legacy. Manmohan Singh also followed the same lines and signed a controversial pact with Pakistan in Egypt.

On that note he is now member of Club of Madrid
The Club of Madrid is an independent organization created for the purpose of promoting democracy and change in the global community. Its exclusive members are of exceptional merit, usually former heads of state and government who have the ability to work as catalysts for change. The Club of Madrid works with various governments and other organizations in search of effective methods to provide technical advice and recommendations to transitional nations taking steps closer to a democratic way of life. The Club consists of full members, who are preceding government officials who have full voting rights: including such distinguished members as former Soviet Leader Mikhail Gorbachev, former President of Brazil Fernando Henrique Cardoso, former President of the United States Bill Clinton, former President of Ireland Mary Robinson,

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 08 Dec 2009 02:50

These kind of policies have another side effect of completely demoralizing and disincenting pple who work in the field. Field work is not for the faint of heart and one cannot imagine a bigger betrayal than what Morarji Desai (for petty, vindictive reasons compromised the lives of indiv) or Inder Kumar Gujral did (sounds like megalomania)

Marut · Post by **Marut** » 08 Dec 2009 02:50

Jarita, unless you can provide some links to backup your claims on this Club of Madrid, I don't think you should be posting about it. While it is a known fact that IKG's actions did harm our covert ops ability, labeling him a traitor and sellout and attributing it to membership of some obscure organization is slander at best. You never know what really happened at that time for these actions to be taken. Hope you reconsider your posts.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 08 Dec 2009 02:56

What...
It's from Wikipedia. Check it yourself

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_K_Gujral

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Club_of_Madrid

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Dec 2009 02:57

On a pie diagram what would be the share of 1,2,3 & 5? And how effective were they? Just use odds say 1 in xx.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 08 Dec 2009 03:03

1:4:3:2

abhishekm · Post by **abhishekm** » 08 Dec 2009 03:45

Jarita wrote:What...
It's from Wikipedia. Check it yourself

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_K_Gujral

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Club_of_Madrid

Hi Jarita- the connection sought to be drawn between IK Gujral and the Madrid Club is tenuous at best. IKG was acting on the strength of his convictions, however misplaced they might have been. The man genuinely believed that the Pakistanis would reciprocate his kind behaviour and NAM mindset (i.e. India as big brother has the duty to treat all its naughty little offspring in the neighbourhood with kid gloves because we must all live in peace and harmony etc.). Thankfully he did not remain PM long enough to gift away Arunachal and Sikkim to the Chinese as a demonstration of our goodwill and hospitality!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Dec 2009 04:14

Jarita wrote:1:4:3:2

So 1) 1
2) 4
3) 3
5) 2

Or in other words,
1) 10%
2) 40 %
3) 30%
5) 20%

or 2) & 5) constitute 60% of the core misson. We dont know how effective they were though we can guess based on the KRC report.

Marut · Post by **Marut** » 08 Dec 2009 04:54

Jarita, Wikipedia links hardly constitute evidence of a person's actions or affiliations. Given the nature of the source, wiki links are not worth relying on (or need to be highly circumspect) especially something related to secret societies and groups since the page can edited to portray whatever info the editor would like! IKG's action of rolling back covert ops capability is not doubted since many commentators have alluded to it often.

Ramanaji,
I didn't get the 1 in xx odds part of your questions. Assuming that your are asking how much each of the diff areas suffered due to MD/IKG actions, I will give my guesstimate of the efficiencies for each of them with 100% being no negative effect

MD:
1. 100% - No pointers to reduction in these capabilities.
2. 50% - While MD did stop/curtail/expose some of covert assets, not all was lost. So 50-50 is the best guess.
3. 75% - While there are no pointers to reduction/curtailment of these activities, it is safe to assume that the effect of #2 was felt on this part too as some of the covert assets may have been for techint gathering.
4. 100% - No pointers to reduction in the scale or scope of CI ops.
5. 50% - Similar to #2. Could be more but can't speculate until more credible information is available.

IKG:
1. 100% - No pointers to reduction in these capabilities.
2. 75% - Although IKG stopped covert action abilities, I would hazard a guess that it was not directed towards intel gathering abilities.
3. 90% - Based on the above explanation and the fact that technology has improved in the intervening period, I would guess the reliance on covert assets to gather techint would have been reduced, hence lesser impact.
4. 100% - No pointers to reduction in the scale or scope of CI ops. In fact Rattan Sehgal was netted in this period!
5. 25% - Given IKG's wish to improve peace and provide a good will measure, I would hazard that this area was the most hit.

Based on this above exercise, I just had an aha moment. The effect of MD's actions were that we were able to know only 'half' of what we could was happening in Pakistan and we only had 'half' the ability to stop it proactively. The effect of IKG's actions were that we could know 'most' of what we could know in Pakistan but we didn't have 'any' ability to proactively respond. In effect, the Indian response mechanism became mainly reactive with a higher efficiency than from being equally reactive and proactive with a reduced efficiency in MD's time.

As usual I am open to correction.TIA.

raghava · Post by **raghava** » 08 Dec 2009 05:28

^^^
A couple of moons ago in the strat forum, it was Ramana garu and someone else who said that its the Indian politicians who were old enough to be directly affected by partition that keep on making "unilateral" gestures. Subconciously they still believe that the two countries can co-exist peacefully and that these gestures will be eventually reciprocated because of shared language, culture and so on.

I think IK Gujral's "goodwill gesture" was based somewhat on these lines.

JMT

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 08 Dec 2009 05:33

Ramana,
My response was in context of how effective these prongs are in general. It was not a response specific to the Gujral/ MD situation.
Based upon research work done, yes those two weigh heavily.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 08 Dec 2009 05:36

Was it Morarji who was suspected of being a cia mole?

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 08 Dec 2009 05:55

Marut
Check the details underlying the Wiki write ups, they quote India Today and other somewhat credible affairs.
Don't know much abt Club of Madrid but a cursory glance at the members reveals some familiar names - Mikhail Gorbochov etc. Basically in the non western world (inlc. S america) it's a club of leaders viewed as failures in their respective countries but as a success in the western world.

Others
Surely Gujrals decision could not have been a unilateral one? He had plenty of advisors and if he chose to override their concerns then either it is betryal or megalomania (witness the name - Gujral doctrine)

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 08 Dec 2009 07:01

they quote India Today and other somewhat credible affairs.

actually the wiki page doesn't quote "anything", it doesn't have a single reference !

it's completely unreliable.

beyond the fact that he stopped intel gathering I think the rest of the issues raised in that page are empty rumours.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 08 Dec 2009 07:11

^^^^ The refer to India Today for the incriminating para

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 08 Dec 2009 07:16

no they don't ! they just use the name.
a proper citation is one that either provides the links to the relevant article in case of an online source or the page and volume number in case of an offline one.
this particular entry looks definitely biased to my eyes, not to mention that I've NEVER come across this set of allegations except in this unsourced and suspect article.

I suggest we stop discussing articles that are more empty slander than anything else, it doesn't add anything to the discussion.

Marut · Post by **Marut** » 08 Dec 2009 07:37

Jarita - here is the incriminating para

wiki page on I K Gujral wrote:It has come out in India Today[citation needed], an Indian news magazine, that I K Gujral, during his tenure as PM, as part of his doctrine, wound up the Research and Analysis Wing's (R&AW) - India's external intelligence agency - covert operations in Pakistan. Acting in the belief of earning the 'goodwill' of Pakistan, he shut down R&AW's covert activities, and gave details of R&AW's assets in Pakistan, which were painstakingly built over many years. It has been alleged that this led to physical elimination of R&AW's human assets through extrajudicial means by Pakistan's intelligence agencies. This has been severely criticized in the light of the November 2008 Mumbai attacks and signifies the final futility of his doctrine - belief in the 'inherent goodwill' of openly hostile neighbours. This is his defining legacy. Manmohan Singh also followed the same lines and signed a controversial pact with Pakistan in Egypt.[citation needed]

The bolded part should tell you why one needs to be circumspect about wiki articles

Also the underlined portion is inconsistent with the articles written by former spooks which is what my knowledge is based on. This may have some traction if it were alleged to occur during Morarji's time. He is known to have rejected a Pakistani scientist offer of Kahuta's blueprint and had unknowingly revealed this to the Pakistanis. But even that was a one-off case.

Also IKG's membership in the Club of Madrid need not be considered to be sinister. He may have just become a member in the club of ex Heads of State since he was one. Infact he may not be active at all. so why worry?

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 08 Dec 2009 07:55

How can Morarji Desai unwillingly reveal stuff to Pakis

One of the posters asked if Morarji was supposed to be a CIA mole. Was he?

Marut · Post by **Marut** » 08 Dec 2009 08:16

Jarita wrote:How can Morarji Desai unwillingly reveal stuff to Pakis

Just let Zia know that he knew Pak had a nuclear program during a phone conversation. Pak intel then made some deductions and based on this went to work plugging the leak. Pretty much standard operating procedure for intel work. Nothing sinister done by Morarji except reference to the nuclear program. He probably never knew it would end up this way!

One of the posters asked if Morarji was supposed to be a CIA mole. Was he?

I say you are ISI mole, are you?

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 08 Dec 2009 08:20

Yes actually I am. Damn, I leaked my cover. But since I am in Andromeda, RAA can't get me

Can someone else answer cos Marut seems to be from the Gujral PR team

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Dec 2009 08:24

I.K. Gujral with his Gujral Doctrine unleashed the unravelling of TSP. Its going to be years later that his contribution will be properly evaluated.

No less an authority than late Ainslee Embree said GD is a hegemonistic doctrine. It took him three four years to figure that. And thats from the first principle.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 08 Dec 2009 09:11

Saying GD as hegemonistic is like saying Hindu tolerance of other cultures as "hegemonistic and absorbing culture ". People who make these kind of allegations are the ones who see even harmless and pacifist things as some kind of grand conspiracy theory. Gujral was a nice man but was not a PM material.He sincerely believed that giving unilateral concessions even to the extent of giving up covert capabilities will result in similar reciprocal measures.Just like we see with some punjabi wkk's, he also had pre-partition nostalgia.

MD was a gandhian and was not a PM material either.He thought covert capabilities (especially offensive covert capabilities) as aggressive and provocative.His anthema for RAW and R.N.Kao (because of his closeness to Indira Gandhi ) did not help matters either.He saw RAW purely from a domestic perspective ignoring that it was an external intelligence agency.

Deva Gouda was not a PM material either but he did not interfere with things which he did not understand .In that respect he is much better than Gujral or MD.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Dec 2009 10:23

Rony wrote:Saying GD as hegemonistic is like saying Hindu tolerance of other cultures as "hegemonistic and absorbing culture ". People who make these kind of allegations are the ones who see even harmless and pacifist things as some kind of grand conspiracy theory. Gujral was a nice man but was not a PM material.He sincerely believed that giving unilateral concessions even to the extent of giving up covert capabilities will result in similar reciprocal measures.Just like we see with some punjabi wkk's, he also had pre-partition nostalgia.

MD was a gandhian and was not a PM material either.He thought covert capabilities (especially offensive covert capabilities) as aggressive and provocative.His anthema for RAW and R.N.Kao (because of his closeness to Indira Gandhi ) did not help matters either.He saw RAW purely from a domestic perspective ignoring that it was an external intelligence agency.

Deva Gouda was not a PM material either but he did not interfere with things which he did not understand .In that respect he is much better than Gujral or MD.

Gujral Doctrine turned the Westhpalian state on its head. According to W, all states irrespective of size have same attributes. Gujral said India because of its size would act without demanding reciprocity where it can. In old Raja dharma way its the behavior of the Rajdhiraja to his samantas. Ainslee Embree is an India friend and he interpreted it in the right way while SD was waxing eloquent as to how IKG gave so much concession without understanding that concessions come with price of acknowledging the paramountcy.

MD was upset that RAW was used to harass Indira Gandhi opponents abroad. He had no problem with IB harassing them locally for that is expected. Abroad all are Indians regardless of the differences.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 08 Dec 2009 11:08

I.K. Gujral with his Gujral Doctrine unleashed the unravelling of TSP. Its going to be years later that his contribution will be properly evaluated.

Thanks, On this forum I hold the IP for this.

My post on 24 sept, 2008.

My hunch is future generations will look at the implementation of Gujral Doctrine (not 9/11) as the catalyst which caused Pakistan to unravel. The cross-LOC trade and traffic taking place now which is attributed to JN Dixit is actually a continuation of this doctrine....as are our future efforts to get more transit points in Kokhrapar-Munnabao in Rajasthan or the ferry beween Karachi and Mumbai.

Gujral doctrine was ridiculed a lot when during it's inception, but in it's other versions it has gained acceptance across the spectrum.

History will probably judge IK Gujral a lot favorably than BRF

The inability of this forum to understand and appreciate Inder Gujral and Jaswant Singh's brilliant and unconventional tactics show it's intellectual limitations.

Marut · Post by **Marut** » 08 Dec 2009 11:40

Paul & Ramanaji, thanks for the explanantions.

sum · Post by **sum** » 08 Dec 2009 12:51

My hunch is future generations will look at the implementation of Gujral Doctrine (not 9/11) as the catalyst which caused Pakistan to unravel. The cross-LOC trade and traffic taking place now which is attributed to JN Dixit is actually a continuation of this doctrine....as are our future efforts to get more transit points in Kokhrapar-Munnabao in Rajasthan or the ferry beween Karachi and Mumbai.

Paul-guru,
Could you please point to a post where you have explained how the IKG doctrine helped us? If no prior post, please give a brief idea about the same.

TIA

sumshyam · Post by **sumshyam** » 08 Dec 2009 19:00

Three held with uranium in Navi Mumbai

Any say gurus...!!

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 08 Dec 2009 19:31

I'm personally not sure of the long term implications of gujral doctrine but his look east policy was a long-overdue course correction in India's foreign policy.

but we are steadily going OT here.

may I'll move these to the foreign policy thread.

negi · Post by **negi** » 08 Dec 2009 19:38

Fwiw it is 'depleted' Uranium , something which can be obtained from a junkyard where medical instruments are dumped or even from an old airframe where it was used as a ballast.