Government rattled by Fonseka trumpBy Shamindra Ferdinando
After a few weeks, if not months of waiting and debating, the UNP-JVP-Mangala combine announced its decision to throw former Army Chief General Sarath Fonseka at incumbent President Mahinda Rajapaksa at the forthcoming presidential election. Although, they called three separate media conferences to announce their individual support to Fonseka with the government making a futile bid to show a rift in the JVP, the unprecedented alliance materialized.
JVP MP Anura Kumara Dissanayake, too, played a significant role in forming the alliance and is widely believed to have been instrumental in facilitating UNP-JVP relationship.
Whatever the state controlled media says, the alliance poses a formidable challenge to the UPFA regime though defeating the incumbent President would be an overwhelming task. But one thing is certain - that the newly formed alliance has rattled the SLFP-led ruling coalition.
Could such a political marriage have been possible without the war veteran shedding his uniform to challenge the veteran politician? Could the UNP and the Marxist JVP get on one political platform, whatever the political compulsions were? And most importantly, who had made the first move to bring about the Opposition combine to challenge the Rajapaksas?
The bottom line is that Fonseka’s entry into politics had transformed what could have been a one horse race to a fiercely contested presidential poll. The January 26 presidential election will be followed by parliamentary elections a few weeks later. The outcome of the presidential fray will decide the outcome of the election that follows, giving the winner trouble free six years to govern the country.
Even for a ruthlessly efficient battlefield commander, it would not have been an easy task to convince the JVP to leave aside its politics to throw its weight behind the UNP-led United National Front (UNP) comprising several other political parties, including MP Mano Ganeshan’s Western People’s Front and the SLMC.
A few months before such a scenario would have been unthinkable. But today, Fonseka had made it happen though sections of the UNP as well as the JVP do not like it. But the Opposition has obviously achieved its primary goal to form a broad alliance to clip President Rajapaksa’s wings by way of bringing in far reaching constitutional reforms.
At first glance, and perhaps at second, the Opposition move would be appreciated by all those wanting to see an end to the authoritarian Rajapaksa regime. For them, it is definitely a positive sign that the UNP and JVP are ready to work for a common goal irrespective of their sharp differences over a range of contentious issues, including the economy, foreign policy as well as agriculture. For those who had been waiting to see the back of the incumbent president, the new alliance under Fonseka’s leadership had given hope that a change is possible and the UPFA juggernaut could be countered at future elections.
Giving a turbo boost to the Opposition itself is a significant achievement for the retired General in the backdrop of heavy defeats experienced by the UNP and the JVP at elections for eight Provincial Councils countrywide except for the Northern Province which has not polled.
The UPFA badly blundered when it wrongly assumed that UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe would not make way for another candidate, particularly a man who had demolished his Norwegian-led peace initiative, thereby creating conditions for the then President Chandrika Kumaratunga to dissolve Parliament in early 2004 and call for general elections.
The JVP, which played a pivotal role in the CBK move against Wickremesinghe, has now ended up in the Wickremesinghe-Fonseka team. Interestingly, former Chief Justice Sarath Nanda Silva, one-time buddy of the Rajapaksas, too, will support the Opposition cause.
Dissident SLFP MP Mangala Samaraweera recently publicly acknowledged Silva’s support for their campaign when he sent out invitations for Tuesday’s (Dec 15) launch of
www.daretodreamsrilanka.com at the Park Street Mews, Colombo 2 where the former CJ will deliver the keynote address.
The Opposition has also received the backing of former President Kumaratunga. Could this have been possible without Fonseka’s leadership as well as his ability to instil confidence among Opposition activists? I believe not, definitely not.
Although, many would not remember that now, it was Fonseka, who first put a spoke in the Norwegian `peace’ initiative by flatly refusing to abandon high security zones in the Jaffna peninsula. Had he given in to heavy political pressure during Wickremesinghe’s tenure as the Premier, the LTTE would have overwhelmed the army deployed in the peninsula years ago.
Without high security zones, the peninsula would have been vulnerable to an all out LTTE attack. But for Wickremesinghe, who did not groom a successor to take on Rajapaksa, Fonseka would be the ideal candidate to face Rajapaksa and overcome any eventuality on the political arena as he did in the battlefield.
There could not have been a better man to face hugely popular Rajapaksa who had unflinchingly gone ahead with a bloody military campaign for almost a three-year period regardless of heavy international pressure and criticism of military action. Whatever the critics say, the President and the Defence Secretary resolutely faced the international criticism though the same could not be said about their predecessors.
By fielding Fonseka, a thrice wounded infantry officer, the Opposition had prevented Rajapaksa from fully exploiting Sri Lanka’s triumph over the LTTE to his advantage. The Opposition move has also neutralized the breakaway JVP faction, the Weerawansa-led National Freedom Front and the JHU to a larger extent.
Their efforts to paint a bleak picture of Fonseka and devalue his role in the war victory will only be counter productive against the backdrop of state media coverage of the offensive. In fact, the state media coverage of the war had created the impression that the other services’ contribution was very much less when compared with Fonseka’s Army.
UNP Deputy Leader Karu Jayasuriya could never have achieved what Fonseka did in the past few weeks. For those who believed UNP National Organiser S. B. Dissanayake could be their man at the presidential election, his pathetic decision to switch allegiance to the SLFP again proved the obvious that he should not be trusted. Could anyone go down to the level that Dissanayake did post-crossover?
From a presidential election aspirant, the former SLFP General Secretary had been reduced to nothing though he may appear on television to target his new enemies. What he may have failed to realize is that unlike the UNP, the UPFA had no shortage of capable speakers. He would be placed among Wimal Weerawansa, Dallas Alahapperuma, Champika Ranawaka, Dinesh Gunawardene, Maithripala Sirisena, Susil Premjayanth and of course Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, who’ll do a demolition job on television without resorting to cheap theatrics.
To the credit of Wickremesinghe and Somawansa Amarasnghe, they invited Fonseka to lead the political offensive though this would definitely be an admission of weakness on their part. Although, they insist that Fonseka was brought in as they did not want to field either a UNPer or JVPer at the presidential poll, the ground reality is that no one else could have challenged Rajapaksa, except Fonseka, a member of the Rajapaksa ‘A’ team.
Before Fonseka split with the incumbent leadership, a section of the Opposition felt that the former CJ could be the common candidate. Had he come forward, the focus would have been on waste, corruption and irregularities but make no mistake it could not have moved the electorate the way Fonseka had done. And most importantly, had Fonseka remained with the Rajapaksas, the President would have received the full benefit of the war victory.
The Opposition faced several major obstacles though Fonseka declared his readiness to face the President. Although the government strategists firmly believed that Wickremesinghe would not give up what could be his last opportunity to contest presidential election, thereby forcing Fonseka to contest as the third major candidate possibly on the JVP ticket – a story a section of the media carried on a government directive.
But to the utter surprise of the government, the UNP and JVP quickly sank their difference with the UNP making major concessions to facilitate the agreement. To the chagrin of a section of the UNP led by the likes of Johnston Fernando and Azath Sally, the UNP dropped its Elephant symbol while the UPFA believed it could take advantage of the situation.
S. B. Dissanayake, shortly before jumping back to the SLFP, attacked Wickremesinghe for dropping the Elephant symbol. What he had conveniently forgotten is that the SLFP would still be in the opposition had it remained with the hand symbol. The SLFP led People’s Alliance unceremoniously discarded the hand symbol to take chair as its symbol before replacing it with the betel leaf a few years later.
Johnston Fernando’s call to field a UNP candidate preferably S. B. Dissanayake or Sajith Premadasa as their candidate leaving Fonseka to contest on his own is patently ridiculous. It is freely conceded that Fonseka is the best candidate the opposition could have fielded against Rajapaksa.
Johnston should not forget that he, at the behest of Ranil Wickremesinghe, had fiercely opposed a series of far reaching reforms proposed by Premadasa several years ago. Johnston and Vajira Abeywardene, MP, relentlessly attacked Premadasa at party forums. Had Premadasa received the support he richly deserved, the ground situation could have been different today.
Today, Wickremesinghe’s yes men had either crossed over to the government for personal gain or are working secretly with the government. In these circumstances, UNPers who crave a government of their own, would appreciate Fonseka’s entry into politics at the highest level.
Regardless of the outcome of the presidential election, Fonseka will continue to be a permanent fixture in Sri Lanlan politics. Whether the UNP, JVP or the SLFP like it or not, the Fonseka factor is perhaps one of the most important developments in post-independence politics. I believe the circumstances are somewhat similar to the situation in which Chandrika Kumaratunga stepped in to political campaign in the wake of ‘Francisco’ affair in 1993 paving the way for Southern Provincial Council election.
The bottom line is that an unexpected rift at the Rajapaksa camp had given the opposition a chance to exploit the situation in a bid to bring the incumbent down. Although, the opposition had launched a well organized propaganda campaign, one of the major disadvantages Fonseka must face are previous ill-fated political strategies of the UNP and Mangala Samaraweera.
Had the likes of Wickremesinghe, Lakshman Kiriella, Lakshman Seneviratne, Mangala Samaraweera and Ravi Karunanayake kept their mouths shut and given even tacit support to the armed forces’ battle against the LTTE, the ball game would have been different today.
Although Fonseka recently declared that he wouldn’t want such issues to be an obstacle to their campaign against the Rajapaksas, the people are unlikely to take a similar approach. To the disappointment of Fonseka supporters, the government’s strategy to tag the Opposition as an unholy alliance comprised of one-time LTTE sympathizers and supporters had been successful.
The government has also moved swiftly to ease restrictions on IDP facilities in the North as part of its strategy to appease the international community as well as the Tamils. President Rajapaksa would surely be delighted by the recent US position articulated by Ambassador Robert Blake, a harsh critic of the Sri Lankan regime only a few moons ago. He recently went as far as welcoming the defeat of the Tigers to the surprise of those who believed the US would at least covertly back the campaign to abolish the executive presidency.
The newly appointed German Ambassador in Sri Lanka, Jens Uwe Plotner, I believe is the first envoy from a country which was perceived as hostile to Sri Lanka’s war against LTTE, to come out openly in support of the country in a post-LTTE era. The change of Germany’s attitude and approach to Sri Lanka is likely to help the country in a big way. The opposition, while cleverly using the media to take its message to the people, is seeking increased foreign pressure on the government.
A section of the media which had been labeled treacherous and biased towards the LTTE in its reporting during the war even by Fonseka has thrown its full weight behind the Opposition candidate. The JVP which had been at the receiving end right throughout their association with the PA/UPFA too, had found space in the media. A disturbed government has ended up treating the media at the taxpayers’ expense.
A fierce contest is on the cards with the winner of January 26 poll sure to take the forthcoming parliamentary election too.
I see a massive lack of comprehension here.
