Global Economy

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Hari Seldon
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Re: Global Economy

Post by Hari Seldon »

The above strategy is employed by India but where has it gotten us?
Good point but depends on your time-horizon. India and its Indics held sway from Africa to central Asia to China itself to South-east Asia for centuries upon centuries based precisely on that strategic attitude - of assimilation, of ideas over ideology, of benign tolerance and finding one's own way.

Sounds corny, I know but that's how I read it.
I'm afraid humans only respects power and single minded ambition. Sharing is a sign of weakness for if you really were strong, you would not have to share with anyone.
And who among the EU weilded that sorta power - single minded ambitious - over the rest? Just wondering only.
SwamyG
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Re: Global Economy

Post by SwamyG »

So there are numerous articles on the demise of dollar yada yada. It is not going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month or next year. It could be decades, but what that means to USA?

Source: Naplesnews.com
Here are just a few of the many, many untoward consequences that cascade from such an event.

First, the U.S. will find itself competing on an unequal footing with China over world petroleum resources without the advantage of the historical strength of the dollar as the favored currency for making such transactions. China is one of the world’s fastest growing economies and is in need of vast quantities of energy to continue fueling its emergence as the preeminent international power. It is also comparatively exempt from achieving the same environmental standards to combat climate change such those being self-imposed upon the U.S. and other major economic powers. Moreover, China is proximally located nearer Middle Eastern oil resources than the U.S. Their major competitor in this import trade is of course Russia, whose principal advantage is its closer geographical proximity to the Middle East, despite its much weaker economy.

A second deleterious impact of the substitution of some other currency for the dollar is the impact this transition will have upon the ability of the U.S. private sector and the government to borrow funds for investment. When the dollar is both strong and serving as the world’s reserve currency standard, then the U.S. government and American corporations find themselves in a most favorable position for attracting investment and borrowing funds. However, if the dollar is no longer the world's reserve currency, it is a certainty that it will continue to weaken below its current anemic value. This dramatically devalued dollar will purchase less.

Consequently the purchasing power of our citizens will erode, and we will no longer be able to engage countries willing to finance our debt, at least not without charging extremely high interest rates. The ultimate outcome of this scenario for the U.S. is that we will have to deal with the resulting massive indebtedness on our own, and the consequences upon our standard of living will be staggering and prolonged.

The final untoward outcome accompanying the dollar’s further demise is a dramatic shift in political and military power. It is worth remembering that the reason the U.S. has remained a superpower in the world is because its strong economy has made a strong military possible. As the value of the dollar erodes, so does the capacity of the U.S. to continue projecting military strength. In fact in the not too distant future, we could find ourselves in exactly the same condition that the former Soviet Union experienced at the end of the Cold War. It was Ronald Reagan who exploited this economic vulnerability and eventually toppled the Soviet Union and its satellite nations. I am extremely concerned that the U.S. is well on the way to finding itself in the same circumstances.

The key issue here is whether or not anything can be done to prevent the seemingly imminent demise of the dollar. As a matter of fact, a number of economic analysts have concluded that the dollar’s replacement is inevitable. Others see it as a necessary correction to reign in the so-called imperialistic power of the U.S. – to include a number of advisers within the Obama administration and Congress.
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Re: Global Economy

Post by SwamyG »

From the same article that I post above, here are the steps that some think USA should take:
For these reasons and more, those of us who are fiscally conservative simply can’t accept this as an inevitable outcome for our nation. This scenario must be avoided AT ALL COSTS.

So here’s what needs to happen and happen right away:

1. Government spending at every level (local, state, and federal) must be curtailed dramatically. Only absolutely essential services and functions should be funded – i.e. military, a minimal economic regulatory capacity, a streamlined taxation system and a judiciary operating within the strict bounds of the Constitution – not outside of it.

2. The progressive income tax must be replaced immediately with a simple flat tax – thereby eliminating the Internal Revenue Service as we currently know it. Likewise, tax rates should be cut dramatically, particularly for higher income citizens in the interest of promoting investment and capital formation.

3. Federalism must be reasserted and ALL powers not specifically granted to the federal government must immediately be returned to the states to include education, health, highways, police and commerce. In so doing the requirements of the 10th amendment to the U.S. Constitution would be honored in that the so-called "implied powers" (i.e. "The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people") are returned to their rightful owners, the states and the people.

4. Citizens must be willing to tighten their belts and live more frugally, prioritizing the reduction of their personal indebtedness over additional spending.

5. The economic foundations of the U.S. economy must be expanded beyond its current narrow service / consumption base. Heavy and light industries must be reintroduced, agricultural investment and innovation must be promoted and the educational system revamped to increase the skilled labor workforce while comparatively reducing current college enrollment levels.{Swamyg: what does that mean? Are they seeking less educated levels, and more factory workers}

6. Public investments of technology, material and human resources must be directed toward securing the nation’s borders and dramatically reducing the degree of illegal immigration into the U.S. Doing so will reduce the economic drain upon the nation's healthcare, criminal-justice, and welfare systems, contribute to greater national security in the face of terrorism, and stymie the efforts of the Democrat party to increase its party enrollment by illegally expanding its potential voter registration base.

7. Ongoing investments must be continued in terms of military preparedness and national security, prioritizing investments in terms of the best possible national security outcomes for the most efficient use of revenues.

8. A renewed emphasis should be made upon anti-terrorist surveillance and national security.

9. The nation should immediately open all available lands and waters to the exploration and extraction of oil and natural gas resources, even as it creates tax and other incentives for the development of safe nuclear and clean coal technology and energy.

10. Environmental standards should be balanced against the nation’s current and future needs for energy and industrial development.

11. The pursuit of environmental policies and programs to combat the illusory issue of global warming should cease immediately.

12. Term limits need to be imposed upon all state and federal elected officials and a constitutional amendment needs to be enacted requiring the federal government to operate on the basis of a balanced budget, where revenue expended is based upon revenue received.
SwamyG
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Re: Global Economy

Post by SwamyG »

Hari:
A good read about why the people allegedly attending allegedly secret meetings are making noises: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/eric-c-an ... 13053.html
Sanjay M
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Re: Global Economy

Post by Sanjay M »

Atlanticist NYT desperately wants its 'Asian boys' to form a common trading bloc - a trilateralist wet deam - with no mention of India, naturally:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/12/busin ... trade.html

If an East Asian Economic Community is formed, we'd better make sure we're not left out, like Turkey got left out of EU, stuck chasing it forever like a pipedream.

I'd really like to see some free trade pacts with South America, though. I think we could get a lot out of accessing their large markets. This would also allow us to make important inroads into the Atlanticists' rear hinterlands as well.
girish.r
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Re: Global Economy

Post by girish.r »

Cascading effect of Derivatives...... More pain left? :-?

Article on Bloomberg:

Writedowns on Mortgage Servicing Make Even JPMorgan Vulnerable

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... z0hsBTTR4A

Add to this Khan printing $$ at will.......means high interest rates.....Means less demand....... :shock:
Neshant
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Re: Global Economy

Post by Neshant »

If an East Asian Economic Community is formed, we'd better make sure we're not left out, like Turkey got left out of EU, stuck chasing it forever like a pipedream.
I agree.

I hope the babuz are not caught flat footed by an announcement some day that an east asian union has been formed minus India.
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Re: Global Economy

Post by Chinmayanand »

Chinmayanand
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Re: Global Economy

Post by Chinmayanand »

The pound weakened to as low as $1.66, compared with $1.679 earlier today after David Riley, head of global sovereign ratings at Fitch, said in an e-mailed statement the U.K. is the most at risk of losing its AAA status among top-rated nations because the country needs “the largest budget adjustment.” Link
girish.r
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Re: Global Economy

Post by girish.r »

German Investor Confidence low -- BLOOMBERG
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... .Wsg&pos=1

Unemployment in the EURO zone expected to scale upto 10.9%.
Sanjay M
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Re: Global Economy

Post by Sanjay M »

From BW:

Retirees Launching Startups


I really think that Indians should court such experienced people from the US and elsewhere, in order to tap into their experience, perspective and ideas.

If they launch their startups in India, then their business acumen can provide a more sound base for starting up, and plus their ideas might take off more successfully if aided by lower Indian labor costs.
Victor
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Re: Global Economy

Post by Victor »

Very bearish view on US and Europe but very bullish on India
India...rises above the pack...its history, population mix, its thrift, commercial orientation, stage of development...
Philip
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Re: Global Economy

Post by Philip »

Dubai crashing!
I posted some time ago an expose of the eco crisis and situ in Dubai,with expats fleeing in droves.Here's another scary report on how the now (in)famous Palms development and promoter is about to come crashing down and the rich and famous are losing their millions and the country unable to meet its economic committments!
Footballers and film stars caught out as Dubai crash hits new low

Hugh Tomlinson in Dubai

David Beckham and Brad Pitt are believed to be among the celebrities and sportsmen who bought villas in Palm Jumeirah in Dubai, a luxury development that juts out into the Gulf. But when the property bubble burst this year, residents saw the value of their investments collapse. Yesterday their situation worsened as Nakheel, the developer, and its state-owned parent made a request to suspend debt repayments.

The statement rocked credit mar-kets around the world and prompted analysts to question whether Dubai, the most populous of the United Arab Emirates, will be able to meet its obligations. The concern is that Nakheel will be unable to continue developing the Palm and neighbouring projects, leaving Dubai and its coastal waters an ugly, unfinished construction site.

When the 2,000 villas and townhouses on the Palm went on sale in 2002, they sold out in a month. Passing through en route to the World Cup in Japan and Korea were the England football team, and several players stopped off to sign up for £1 million properties on the artificial island, with Michael Owen, David James, Joe Cole, Andy Cole and Kieron Dyer, it was reported, joining Beckham on the beaches. Pitt and Angelina Jolie are also said to have bought homes.

Joe Cole was one of the few who got out in time. The Chelsea player sold his villa for about $3.5 million (£2.1 million) last summer as Dubai’s property bubble approached bursting point.

Related Links
Problems for Dubai are only just beginning
Dubai World seeks 'standstill' on debt
Dubai's driving ambitions turning to sand

Nakheel is now in deep trouble and struggling to cover its debts. Dubai World, a government conglomerate that owns the developer, is $60 billion in the red. Yesterday’s announcement by the Dubai government that it wishes to suspend repayment of Dubai World’s debts for six months, including a $4 billion bond held by Nakheel that was due to be repaid next month, is the clearest indication that the emirate can no longer meet its obligations.

Work has stopped on several major projects around the city and companies have had to accept huge cuts in the value of their contracts. More than 400 projects worth more than $300 billion are said to have been cancelled or shut down as a result of the property collapse.

Recent reports claimed that British companies were owed £200 million by Dubai’s government-owned companies, but some analysts put the total figure much higher. “The bigger construction companies have to take it because if Dubai bounces back they want to pick up more work. Smaller companies have to take any money they can,” one local analyst said.

Thousands flocked to Dubai during the boom, enticed by the tax-free lifestyle. Many invested in property, expecting huge returns as the market soared. By 2007 villas were changing hands at prices 200 per cent higher than four years earlier, and rents skyrocketed as Dubai became intoxicated by a property boom echoed worldwide and by its sense of achieving the impossible.

When the Atlantis hotel was opened on Palm Jumeirah a year ago with a $20 million party headlined by Kylie Minogue, it was supposed to crown the island’s self-styled reputation as an Eighth Wonder of the World. It was also supposed to cement Dubai’s position as a new playground for the rich and famous. The $1 million firework display helped to distract attention from a construction boom running out of steam.

The Dubai government has done its best to deny that a problem exists, claiming recently that the population would rise this year by 400,000, flying in the face of all independent assessments, which predict a sharp fall. The anecdotal stories of cars abandoned at Dubai International airport with credit cards in the glove box have become the stuff of legend, and not the image that the government has sought to project.

Some parts of Dubai World remain strong, in particular DP World, the third-largest international ports operator, which bought P&O in 2006. DP World also owns ports in Britain such as Tilbury in Essex. But those parts of the business that were founded on the property boom, and Nakheel in particular, are likely to continue to struggle until the property market recovers and construction can begin again in earnest. Even then, bankers’ confidence in the business may be shot.

Altogether, the Dubai government and its companies have more than $80 billion of debt. The emirate, which has a population of only two million, has been forced twice to approach its oil-rich neighbour in Abu Dhabi for the funds to bail it out. The federal Government has approved $15 billion in bonds and more will have to follow if Dubai’s state-owned businesses are to survive until an economic recovery can take hold.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/b ... 932539.ece
abhishek_sharma
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Re: Global Economy

Post by abhishek_sharma »

I couldn't find an appropriate thread for this article. Please move it, if necessary.

Paul A. Samuelson, Economist, Dies at 94

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/14/busin ... elson.html
Neshant
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Re: Global Economy

Post by Neshant »

a bit of conspiracy theory... although we live in times where government & institutional scams are abound all over the place.

Hope India tested the density, mass and volume of these gold bars prior to taking delivery.

---------------
The IMF sold Gold plated tungsten bars to India?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0-hGHJSgNA
Vikas
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Re: Global Economy

Post by Vikas »

^^ Is it that easy to cheat a Govt by IMF ? CT alright but if it such a information is in open public domain then it is no longer a CT.

BTW - How do Govt's ensure that they are not being "Natwar laled" while buying gold from the market ?
Neshant
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Re: Global Economy

Post by Neshant »

Well it should be straight forward measuring the mass and volume of the gold bars to determine if they match the density of gold.

One hopes the babus who took delivery of the gold were not lazy and actually performed the test on each and every bar prior to taking delivery. Lord knows the IMF is a financial arm of those who wish to extract wealth through all kinds of unfair means from poor countries by taking advantage of (and in some cases creating) financial crisis. So I would not trust anything they say.
Sanjay M
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Re: Global Economy

Post by Sanjay M »

Some Asian countries aren't feeling the slowdown:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126134339188299275.html
Sanjay M
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Re: Global Economy

Post by Sanjay M »

Chinmayanand
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Re: Global Economy

Post by Chinmayanand »

Goldman Makes ‘Call of Decade’ by Promoting BRICs
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s forecast that Brazil, Russia, India and China would eventually eclipse the Group of Seven countries economically has been described as “the biggest market call of the decade.”
Sanjay M
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Re: Global Economy

Post by Sanjay M »

Krugman is firing more shots against China:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/01/opini ... ugman.html
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Re: Global Economy

Post by Singha »

to me it is clear the Khan is impotent and powerless vs china on economic issues.

the chinese may yet face problems of their own making but it wont be due to khan and its verbal broadsides.
svinayak
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Re: Global Economy

Post by svinayak »

Singha wrote:to me it is clear the Khan is impotent and powerless vs china on economic issues.

the chinese may yet face problems of their own making but it wont be due to khan and its verbal broadsides.
This is a complex relationship with lot of deep connection. It is hard to conclude anything right now.
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Re: India-Canada: News and Discussion

Post by Sanjay M »

Suraj wrote:As a further piece of comparative economic data:
World Bank GDP (PPP) 2008 figures

Code: Select all

Rank Country GDP($ billions)
4    India   3,389
14   Canada  1,214
Those figures are only under PPP

Under direct nominal figures, it is India which ranks somewhere around 14.
Compare that with China, whose nominal rank will reach number 2 sometime this year!
In nominal terms they will even surpass Japan within 2010, while we will remain way down the ladder.
Suraj
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Re: India-Canada: News and Discussion

Post by Suraj »

Nominal GDP figures are already listed earlier in the thread. I added PPP GDP figures. No point in mentioning just one. Further, this is an India-Canada discussion thread. China's GDP is irrelevant to the topic.
Sanjay M
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Re: India-Canada: News and Discussion

Post by Sanjay M »

Suraj wrote:Nominal GDP figures are already listed earlier in the thread. I added PPP GDP figures. No point in mentioning just one. Further, this is an India-Canada discussion thread. China's GDP is irrelevant to the topic.

I'm making the point that PPP-adjusted GDP isn't as powerful as you portray it. Nominal GDP is more important for real international ranking. Canada's nominal GDP is still ahead of India's, for for good reason.
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Re: India-Canada: News and Discussion

Post by Suraj »

Sanjay M: What are your definitions and metrics of 'powerful' and 'more important for international ranking' ?

Here's my perspective - both technical and subjective: comparing GDP or growth rates of different nations is at best a questionable exercise for many reasons - various base years, extent of an informal economy, and even how growth rate is reported - annualized or sequential.

PPP GDP is significantly more important when comparing the GDPs of two nations where basic goods and services costs are not comparable using a direct exchange rate transaction, have significantly different organizations of economic activity and relative price levels of goods and services. Most developing nations generally have relatively higher cost of goods compared to income, and cheaper services, while the reverse is the case in developed nations.

Therefore I disagree with your contention.

I'm going to move this non-sequitur discussion to the global economy thread in a while, so that the original focus is not derailed.
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Re: Global Economy

Post by Chinmayanand »

svinayak
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Re: Global Economy

Post by svinayak »

Image

Babu Sassi, a fearless young man from southern India ,

is the cult hero of Dubai's army of construction workers.

Known as the "Indian on the top of the world",

Babu is the crane operator at the world's tallest building, the 819-meter Burj Dubai.

His office, the cramped crane cab perched on top of the Burj, is also his home.

It takes too long to come down to the ground each day to make it worthwhile -

although, when the building is completed, its elevators will be the world's fastest.

Stories about his daily dalliance with death are discussed in revered terms by Dubai's workers.

Some say he has been up there for more than a year,

others whisper that he's paid 30,000 dirhams ($8,168) a month

compared with the average wage of 800 dirhams a month.

But everyone agrees, he's worth it -

because nobody else would have the courage to do the job!
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Re: Global Economy

Post by svinayak »

Muni Threat: Cities Weigh Chapter 9
by Ianthe Jeanne Dugan and Kris Maher
Thursday, February 18, 2010

http://finance.yahoo.com/taxes/article/ ... -chapter-9


Just days after becoming controller of financially strapped Harrisburg, Pa., in January, Daniel Miller began uttering an obscure term that baffled most people who had never heard it and chilled those who had: Chapter 9.

The seldom-used part of U.S. bankruptcy law gives municipalities protection from creditors while developing a plan to pay off debts. Created in the wake of the Great Depression, Chapter 9 is widely considered a last resort and filings under it are more taboo than other parts of bankruptcy code because of the resulting uncertainty for everyone from municipal employees to bondholders.
The economic slump, however, is forcing debt-laden cities, towns and smaller taxing districts throughout the U.S. to consider using Chapter 9. As their revenue declines faster than expenses, some public entities are scrambling to keep making payments on municipal bonds. And that is causing experts to worry about the safety of securities traditionally considered low risk.

"People believe that municipal debt is safe based on assumptions that are no longer true," says Kenneth Buckfire, managing director and chief executive of Miller Buckfire & Co., an investment bank that has worked with corporations on restructurings and now is advising municipalities. For example, it isn't safe to assume that governments can raise taxes to cover shortfalls, he says.

Even threatening bankruptcy signals that municipalities are willing to compromise the security of bondholders, says Richard Raphael, an analyst at Fitch Ratings. That makes it harder for cities and towns to raise money from investors and will slow the U.S. economic recovery.

In Harrisburg, which is Pennsylvania's capital and has a population of about 47,000, a March 1 deadline is looming on a payment of $2 million out of the $68 million due this year for the financing of an incinerator plant. The facility has about $288 million in overall debt.

"Bankruptcy is inevitable," Mr. Miller says. "We are in a terrible bind." A budget passed Saturday by Harrisburg's city council didn't include any funds to cover the debt payments, according to the city clerk's office.

Harrisburg Mayor Linda Thompson, a Democrat elected in November, opposes a bankruptcy filing and has presented an emergency plan that includes selling some of the city's assets. She couldn't be reached for comment. A spokeswoman for the mayor says Ms. Thompson is working on the plan.

Michele Torres, executive director of the Harrisburg Authority, which oversees the incinerator plant, says there are sufficient reserve funds to make the March 1 payment to bondholders. But that doesn't fix the problem. "No matter how perfect the facility runs, it just can't generate enough … to meet the $288 million debt," she says.

Since Chapter 9 was enacted in 1934, just 600 cases have been filed under the code, partly because they require state approval. Some municipalities have found escape hatches, such as raising taxes. The largest Chapter 9 case was filed in 1994, when Orange County, Calif., lost $1.6 billion on wrong-way bets on interest rates.

But many experts fear that a surge in municipal bankruptcy filings is unavoidable. "The day of reckoning is coming," says Michael Pagano, dean of the University of Illinois at Chicago's College of Urban Planning and Public Affairs.

To keep cities and towns from toppling into Chapter 9, more states are likely to make use of state laws to assume oversight of financially distressed municipalities, he predicts. Pittsburgh, for one, has been operating under such a law since 2004.

Vallejo, Calif., a city of about 116,000 people near San Francisco, has been trying to rejigger worker contracts in bankruptcy court since it filed for Chapter 9 in 2008, after buckling under declining real-estate values. Some union contracts expire later this year, and Vallejo is attempting to scrap them and start over.

In San Diego, political leaders have faced outside pressure to file for Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection as a way to get around benefits packages for public workers. San Diego Mayor Jerry Sanders has publicly dismissed the idea.

Last month, Las Vegas Monorail Co., a nonprofit with over $600 million in municipal bonds, filed for Chapter 11. The company runs a 3.9-mile monorail system along the Las Vegas Strip that has been hammered by the downturn. Ridership shrank 21% last year from 2008. According to Fitch, while the monorail is covering its operating costs, default "is virtually certain" on a payment due in July.

Ambac Assurance Corp., the bond-insurance unit of Ambac Financial Group Inc., is seeking to have the case converted to a Chapter 9 proceeding. The insurer contends that the company is akin to a municipality. A judge is set to decide on the petition later this month.

Sandy Hoskins, interim chief executive of Sierra Kings Health District in Reedley, Calif., worked for nearly 30 years as an auditor and financial consultant. He says he never heard of Chapter 9 until October, when Mr. Hoskins filed a bankruptcy petition for the hospital system. "There was no other way around it," he says. With low cash balances, "there were vendors not even willing to do business with us. It was a critical situation."

Mr. Miller, Harrisburg's controller, also sees no way out of the financial squeeze. The city's per-capita debt of $9,500 is the highest in Pennsylvania and triple the debt load of Philadelphia, he says. And selling parking facilities or other properties in a fire sale would cost Harrisburg future revenue. A spokesman for Pennsylvania Gov. Edward Rendell says Harrisburg hasn't sought help from state officials.

"We can't raise taxes; they're already very high," Mr. Miller says. "If we did, people would just leave. It's cheaper to move out to the suburbs."
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Re: Global Economy

Post by abhischekcc »

Babu Sassi, a fearless young man from southern India
What???

No hot blooded Pathan from Peshawar has the guts to do this? :mrgreen:
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Re: Global Economy

Post by Prem »

Unfortunately, long-term investments in education, research, digital technology and human capital have been steadily declining in the U.S.,” Mr. Otellini said, according to a transcript of the speech. “So, too, has the commitment to policies that made us such an entrepreneurial powerhouse for more than a century.”

Other countries, including China, India, Taiwan, Finland, Korea and the Netherlands, have become “far more potent competitors in the next phase of the global economy,” he said.As part of the alliance, two dozen venture capital firms — including top-tier names like Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, Venrock and DCM — have committed to investing portions of their funds in start-ups founded in the United States. Intel Capital, the company’s venture capital arm, will invest $200 million. he United States is quickly losing ground to China and India, said Robert Compton, a venture capitalist and entrepreneur who produced a documentary on education in the three countries. Fewer than 10 percent of college graduates in the United States have engineering degrees, compared with more than one-third in India and China, and more foreign-born graduates of United States universities are returning to their home countries, he said. “Early indicators are that we are not the center of innovation anymore,” Mr. Compton said. “It is shifting to the East.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/24/techn ... nture.html
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Re: Global Economy

Post by A_Gupta »

US policies are based on flawed productivity measurements.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/06/opini ... elson.html
But there’s a problem: labor productivity figures, which are calculated by the Labor Department, count only worker hours in America, even though American-owned factories and labs have been steadily transplanted overseas, and foreign workers have contributed significantly to the final products counted in productivity measures.

The result is an apparent drop in the number of worker hours required to produce goods — and thus increased productivity. But actually, the total number of worker hours does not necessarily change.

This oversight is no secret: as Labor Department officials acknowledged at a 2004 conference, their statistical methods deem any reduction in the work that goes into creating a specific unit of output, whatever the cause, to be a productivity gain.

This continuing mismeasurement leads economists and all those who rely on them to assume that recorded productivity gains always signify greater efficiency, rather than simple offshoring-generated cost cuts — leaving the rest of us scratching our heads over stagnating wages.
And if that is the case:
Above all, if offshoring has been driving much of our supposed productivity gains, then the case for complete free trade begins to erode. If often such policies simply increase corporate profits at the expense of American workers, with no gains in true productivity, then they don’t necessarily strengthen the national economy.
svinayak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14222
Joined: 09 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: Global Economy

Post by svinayak »

The Scary New Rich
The global middle class is more unstable and less liberal than we thought.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/234589

PHOTOS

China's Changing Face
Over the past few decades, China has undergone what is considered one of the fastest and most far-reaching national metamorphoses in human history. A look at the changing face of a nation.

By Rana Foroohar and Mac Margolis | NEWSWEEK
Published Mar 6, 2010
From the magazine issue dated Mar 15, 2010

The middle classes have always been the bulwark of society. Aristotle believed they were democracy's secret weapon—the protectors of social values, the moderators of political extremism, ramparts of reason over fiat, and believers in a society run by laws instead of by strongmen. They have also been the engines of economic growth, setting the stage centuries ago for the expansion of capitalism and global trade, and continuing through the ages to snap up every new gadget or service in sight. Now, with the Western middle classes sinking into debt and distress, many economists look to a new emerging-market middle class as the potential foundation for a new age of global safety and prosperity. As China, Brazil, Russia, Turkey, India, Indonesia, and other large developing nations became more prosperous, it was always assumed that they would become more like the suburbs of Washington or London—liberal, democratic, market-friendly bastions not only of Western-style consumerism but also of political liberty. With time and wealth, "they" would become just like "us."
What, then, to make of recent news events like the Brazilian middle class applauding more state control of the oil industry to keep out greedy foreign firms, or the continuing popularity of Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin among the Russian middle class, now 78 percent of the total population? Then there's the middle-class support for the rise of conservative Islam in Indonesia, which has pushed through a new anti-***** law and may soon create halal cities, where all food must be served according to strict Islamic rules. These new spins on middle-class values mix, in many places, with distinctly anti-Western forms of nationalism. The increasing patriotism of affluent young Chinese has created an industry for popular books like "The China Dream." which urges China to launch a military buildup in preparation for a coming conflict with the U.S.
Katare
BRF Oldie
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Joined: 02 Mar 2002 12:31

Re: Global Economy

Post by Katare »

Very interesting article tries to explain reasons behind world wide gloom and doom.........

Why So Glum? Numbers Point to a Recovery
The employment report for March, released a week ago, was a milestone that has been little noted. The household survey, from which the unemployment rate is calculated, showed a gain during the first quarter of this year of 1.1 million jobs, the best performance since the spring of 2005.

True, the more widely reported numbers from the survey of employers are not as good. But those numbers are subject to heavy revision as better data becomes available. At the turning points for employment after the last two downturns, those numbers turned out to be far better than was reported at the time.
Dmurphy
BRFite
Posts: 1542
Joined: 03 Jun 2008 11:20
Location: India

Re: Global Economy

Post by Dmurphy »

Guys I'm in trouble. I've been tasked with keeping track of daily USD exchnage rates and Crude Oil prices on an everyday basis. But for some reasons (BRF included) I couldn't keep track of both the prices the whole of last month but need to compile the daily rates before it dawns on my boss. Could someone suggest me a site where I can look up the Oil and USD exchange rates from the past?? Its urgent!

I usually use xe.com and oil-price.net to track the prices but they show only the current prices. Sorry for the OT post.
Neshant
BRF Oldie
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Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Global Economy

Post by Neshant »

lol

USD exchange rates against what currency? if its rupees just make an axis on the right and plot the US/rupee conversion rate.

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