So, I don't really understand all the enthusiasm about Google's move. Can anyone really make a coherent argument that by threatening to leave China because of cyberattacks, they are doing the right thing for the right reason? I'd very much like to hear it.
It is already 2010, please......In 2008, India will likely overtake China as the world's fastest growing economy and become one of the largest economies globally. Direct foreign investment has increased dramatically in recent years and the pace of activity continues to quicken as large private equity funds and big corporations look for new revenue growth. The middle class is expected to grow from 90 million individuals today to 351 million individuals by 2010, and the retail market is expected to grow from $300 billion today to $637 billion by 2015. Riding the Indian Tiger gives individuals and organizations a detailed picture of the economic opportunities India has to offer.
SwamyG wrote:Some folks might be interested to know why or how India will outperform China. Riding Indian Tiger : Understanding India - The World's Largest Growing Market
The google books has a limited preview - Check out Chapter 3 that starts from Page 65.
The problem China faces is this - for the past 20 years, their people have been slaving away for the US, and the only thing they have to show for it is this mountain heap of paper. But the money is denominated in the currency of their chief rival - the US, which can inflate away the purchasing power of that money at will. IOW, whatever China has earned in the past 20 years is at the mercy of the US. This is what is going to happen in the US now when hyper inflation takes over. That is why US authorities are only giving lip service as the dollar continues to erode.Katare wrote:You may be right but I can't resist asking that if you have got $2 trillion in surplus cash and counting, do you really need a magic wand?abhischekcc wrote:I keep hearing about China's USD 2 trillion hoard as if it is a magic wand that will make every problem China has disappear. The hoard is really a millstone around their necks - what will they do with that hoard if demand for dollar weakens? If they try to dump the dollar, they will end up hurting themselves.
Word from the ground earlier today is that Google China's employees were told not to come in to work and were all given free tickets to go watch Avatar in a neighboring theater. The employees aren't too sure what's going to happen, but there seems to be some backroom negotiating going on.abhishek_sharma wrote:Doubting the sincerity of Google's threat
http://neteffect.foreignpolicy.com/post ... les_threat
So, I don't really understand all the enthusiasm about Google's move. Can anyone really make a coherent argument that by threatening to leave China because of cyberattacks, they are doing the right thing for the right reason? I'd very much like to hear it.
it is a "who will bell the cat situation"abhischekcc wrote: Stupid communists
There is a difference between how China calculates GDP and the rest of the world does. This has been pointed out a number of times. Plus with the government spending and lending more in 2009 than it had ever done before, the growth is bound to be there. The question is whether is sustainable. Further there are these inconsistencies with Chinese number: Growth near double digits but electricity consumption down 3%; More cars sold than the US but gasoline consumption flat. This is being reflected in the Baltic Dry Index which tracks Shangai Composite quite well. If things were gung-ho as before, the BDI shipping index would have been much higher.wrdos wrote:hehe, another "India will"
OK, i forget the biggest advantage of India and Africa countries over China, democracy.
Yeah, according to those western people, almost all African countries are more democracy than China, hehe.
The comparison of China and India, is just the old comparison of Taiwan, Korea, Singapore with the Philipeans, in the 1960s. The latter was more democratic and even richer by then.......
Nexxt Shupelpowel!!Auto spare parts disguised as those of Bangalore-based component manufacturer Bosch Ltd have been discovered at the Auto Expo 2010 held in the capital's Pragati Maidan. The fake parts were displayed at a stall in the China Pavilion, which houses 5,000 sq metres of exhibition stalls of numerous Chinese component manufacturers. The alleged high-end lighting products, fraudulently branded as Bosch's, were discovered recently by the latter's officials.
Bosch officials say the high-intensity beams are dangerous to both pedestrians and oncoming vehicles because the powerful lighting could blind the eyes. "It's also dangerous to the vehicle, since a high-intensity beam needs very high levels of energy to be lighted. A small short-circuit in the vehicle could blow up the entire car. We seized just one kit at the exhibitor's stall. We do not know how many consignments were stored in the in the city,"said the official.
Business Standard reporters inspected the stall and the contraband. The exhibitor had vacated the premises since the morning. The alleged contraband bore the name Bosch. Domestic manufacturers say the level of sophistication is remarkable, as it has packaging identical to that of Bosch for its other automotive lighting systems.
Chinese delegates at the Pavilion told Business Standard they were not aware of counterfeit products at the Auto Expo. One manufacturer of piston rings who is a supplier to Chinese OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) said there may be instances of other counterfeit products finding their way in the Auto Expo but would not elaborate.
Word is that in the Google attack, there was insider help, presumably Google employees of Chinese origin . The attackers were after Google source code. All the attacks against the high tech companies were targeting IP theft.Word from the ground earlier today is that Google China's employees were told not to come in to work and were all given free tickets to go watch Avatar in a neighboring theater
If all they were interested in was the source code and they had insider help, then they would not need to risk this type of fallout because the insider could have shipped out the source code using a DVD or hard disk.vina wrote:Word is that in the Google attack, there was insider help, presumably Google employees of Chinese origin . The attackers were after Google source code.
I thought I'll respond to this specific question.Prasanth wrote:I was always wondering how we manage to feed ourselves with 200 mil tonnes of grain for 1.2 bil people. China needed 500 mil tonnes of grain for 1.3bil people and yet they are afraid of food security.
This is not entirely true. India has ~ 400 million head of cattle, this is 3 to 4 times that in China and US.shyam wrote:Indians don't have to feed too many animals for food.
National Economy: Recovery and Posing in the Good Direction in 2009
National Bureau of Statistics of China 2010-01-21 10:00:00
National Bureau of Statistics of China
January 21, 2010
The year 2009 is the most difficult time for China’s economic development in the new century. In face of the severe impact brought about by the global financial crisis in a century and the most complicated domestic and international situations, the Central Party Committee and the State Council sized up the situation, made scientific decision and headed the whole nation united as one to surmount the difficulties of our time; to stick to implement the proactive fiscal policy and moderately easy monetary policy; and to fully implement and further improve the package plan targeting on tackling with the global financial crisis. All these lead to the holding back noticeable sliding of the economy, and the national economy recovered and moved toward a favorable direction.
According to preliminary estimation, the gross domestic product (GDP) for the year 2009 was 33,535.3 billion yuan, up by 8.7 percent at comparable prices, or 0.9 percentage points lower than that in the previous year. In terms of growth by quarters, it was up 6.2 percent for the first quarter, 7.9 percent growth for the second quarter, 9.1 percent for the third quarter and 10.7 percent for the last quarter. In terms of growth by sectors, the value added of the primary industry was 3,547.7 billion yuan, up by 4.2 percent; that of the secondary industry was 15,695.8 billion yuan, up by 9.5 percent; and that of the tertiary industry was 14,291.8 billion yuan, up by 8.9 percent.
I. Agricultural Production Continued to Develop Steadily with Increase in Grain Output for Consecutive Six Years. In 2009, the total output of grain reached 530.82 million tons, an increase of 0.4 percent over that in the previous year with an output increase for the sixth year. Of this total, the output of summer grain was 123.35 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.2 percent; the output of early rice was 33.27 million tons, a growth of 5.3 percent over that in the previous year; the output of autumn grain was 374.20 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 0.6 percent. The output of oil-bearing seeds is expected to grow around 5.0 percent and the output of sugar will drop by 9.0 percent. The output of meat maintained steady growth and the total output of meat in 2009 reached 75.09 million tons, up by 5.0 percent. Of this total, the output of pork was 48.89 million tons, up by 5.8 percent; the number of slaughtered pigs stood at 640 million, up by 5.7 percent, the total stocks of pigs were 470 million, rose by 1.5 percent.
II. Industrial Production Picked up Quarter by Quarter, Profits Made Reversed from Sharp Declining to Rising. In 2009, the value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size was up by 11.0 percent, or 1.9 percentage points lower than that in 2008. Of which, the growth in the first quarter was 5.1 percent, that in the second quarter was 9.1 percent, 12.4 percent growth in the third quarter and 18.0 percent growth in the last quarter. Analysis on different types of enterprises showed that the value added of the state-owned and state holding enterprises went up by 6.9 percent; collective enterprises, up by 10.2 percent; share-holding enterprises, up by 13.3 percent; and 6.2 percent growth for the enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. The growth of the heavy industry was 11.5 percent and that of the light industry was 9.7 percent. Among the 39 industrial divisions, all witnessed growth over the previous year. In terms of different areas, the growth in eastern, central and western regions went up by 9.7 percent, 12.1 percent and 15.5 percent respectively. The production and marketing situation was good, the sales ratio was 97.67 percent for the industrial enterprises above the designated size.
In the first eleven months of 2009, the profits made by industrial enterprises above the designated size reached 2,589.1 billion yuan, up by 7.8 percent, over the same period of last year, which was 2.9 percentage points higher than that in the same period of last year. Among the 39 industrial divisions, 30 divisions registered year-on-year growth with profits.
III. Investment Continued to Grow fast, Investment in Areas Related to People’s Livelihood Speeded up Noticeably. In 2009, the total investment in fixed assets of the country reached 22,484.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 30.1 percent, with an increase of 4.6 percentage points over the previous year. Of this total, the fixed assets investment in urban areas was 19,413.9 billion yuan, up by 30.5 percent, or 4.4 percentage points higher; and that in rural areas was 3,070.7 billion yuan, up by 27.5 percent, or 6.0 percentage points higher. Of the fixed assets investment in urban areas, the growth of investment in the primary industry was 49.9 percent; that in the secondary industry was 26.8 percent and 33.0 percent for the tertiary industry. In terms of different areas, the investment in urban areas in eastern, central and western regions grew by 23.9 percent, 36.0 percent and 35.0 percent respectively. Investment in areas that related to the improvement of people’s livelihood increased by a large margin. The investment in infrastructure facilities (excluding electricity) for the whole year topped 4,191.3 billion yuan, up 44.3 percent. Of this total, the growth of investment in railway transportation was 67.5 percent; road transportation, 40.1 percent; urban public traffic, 59.7 percent; services to households and other services, 61.8 percent; education, 37.2 percent; health, social security and social welfare, 58.5 percent. The total investment in the real estate development for the year was 3,623.2 billion yuan, a growth of 16.1 percent, which was 4.8 percentage points lower than that in 2008.
IV. The Growth of Market Sales was Steady and Fast, Sales of Selected Products Increased Rapidly. In 2009, the total sales of consumer goods reached 12,534.3 billion yuan, a growth of 15.5 percent, or a real growth of 16.9 percent after deducting price factors, which was 2.1 percentage points higher than that in the previous year. Of this total, the retail sales of consumer goods in cities stood at 8,513.3 billion yuan, up 15.5 percent, while the retail sales at and below county level reached 4,021.0 billion yuan, up 15.7 percent. Grouped by different sectors, the sales by wholesale and retail businesses was 10,541.3 billion yuan, up by 15.6 percent; and that by lodging and catering industry was 1,799.8 billion yuan, up by 16.8 percent. Of the total retail sales by wholesale and retail businesses above designated size, except that of the communication equipment, the rest 20 types of commodities all registered large margin growth. Of which, the growth of clothing, shoes, hats and textiles was 18.8 percent, that of furniture, 35.5 percent and 32.3 percent growth for automobiles.
V. The Consumer Price and Producer Price Witnessed Decline for the Whole Year, Picking up Was Shown at the End of the Year. In 2009, the CPI was down by 0.7 percent. Of this total, the CPI declined by 0.9 percent in cities and down by 0.3 percent in rural areas. Grouped by categories, four of the total eight categories witnessed price rise and the rest four had declines, the prices for tobacco and liquor, went up by 1.5 percent, that of the medical care services and personal articles, up by 1.2 percent, that of food went up by 0.7 percent, and that of household appliance and maintenance services, up 0.2 percent; the prices of housing down by 3.6 percent, that of transportation and communication, down by 2.4 percent, clothing, down by 2.0 percent and 0.7 percent decrease for recreation, education, cultural articles and services. The year-on-year change of CPI in November reversed from negative one to positive one, which was up 0.6 percent in November, it was up by 1.9 percent in December. In 2009, the year-on-year change of producers’ prices for manufactured goods down by 5.4 percent, in December it was up 1.7 percent reversing the trend of declining. The purchasers’ prices for raw material, fuel and power down by 7.9 percent for the whole year; the retail prices for commodities dropped down by 1.2 percent.
VI. The Total Value of Imports and Exports Dropped in 2009, It Shifted from Declining to Rising in November. The total value of imports and exports for the whole year reached 2,207.3 billion US dollars, a drop of 13.9 percent over that in the previous year. In November, the year-on-year change of total value of imports and exports shifted from negative one to a positive one, which was up by 9.8 percent, it was up 32.7 percent in December. The total value of exports for the whole year was 1,201.7 billion US dollars, down by 16.0 percent; that of the imports was 1,005.6 billion US dollars, down by 11.2 percent; China had a trade surplus of 196.1 billion US dollars, or 99.4 billion US dollars less over that in the previous year.
VII. Urban and Rural Residents’ Income Increased Steadily, the Employment Situation was Better than Expected. In 2009, the per capita income of urban household was 18,858 yuan. Of this total, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 17,175 yuan, up by 8.8 percent, or a real increase of 9.8 percent after deducting price factors. Of the per capita income of urban household, the growth of wage income was 9.6 percent; that of operating net income was 5.2 percent; property income, 11.6 percent, transferred income, 14.9 percent. The per capita net income of rural residents was 5,153 yuan, up by 8.2 percent over that in the previous year, or a real increase of 8.5 percent after deducting price factors. Of this total, the growth of wage income was 11.2 percent; the production operating income from the primary industry was 2.2 percent, and that from the secondary and tertiary industries was 10.0 percent; the property income was 12.9 percent and 23.1 percent growth for the transferred income. The total newly increased employment in urban areas was 9.10 million people. By the end of the year, there were 149 million rural migrant workers; it was 1.7 million people more than that at the end of the first quarter of 2009.
VIII. Money Supply Grew Rapidly, Newly Increased Credits Increased by a Large Margin. At the end of December, the broad money (M2) was 60.6 trillion yuan, it was up 27.7 percent as compared with that at the end of 2008, the growth rate was 9.9 percentage points higher over that in the previous year; the narrow money (M1) was 22.0 trillion yuan, up by 32.4 percent, or 23.3 percentage points higher; the cash in circulation (M0) was 3,824.6 billion yuan, a rise of 11.8 percent, or down by 0.9 percentage points. The amount of outstanding loans of all financial institutions was 40.0 trillion yuan, increased by 9.6 trillion yuan over that at the beginning of this year, or an increase of 4.7 trillion yuan as compared with the same period last year.
At present, the base of world economy recovery is relatively weak; there are uncertainties in domestic economic development. Facing the complex situation of coexistence of difficulties and opportunities, we should unswervingly carry out various plans set by the central government on economic work; thoroughly apply the scientific outlook of development; maintain the consistency and stability of the macro economic policy; put forth effort to enhance the pertinence and flexibility of policies; further improve the quality and efficiency of economic growth; accelerate the change of economic growth mode and the adjustment of economic structures; actively push forward reform, opening-up and independent innovation; attach importance to the improvement of people’s livelihood and maintain a harmonious and stable social climate; take both international and domestic situation into consideration and plan accordingly; and achieve a steady and fast growth of national economy.
Good performance. However, it is 2009 is "history" . We are in 2010 , Happy New Year and all that see ?.hina just reported its 2009 economic statistics data
The Chinese GDP of 2009 was 33,535.3 billion yuan (about US$4.9 trillion), an 8.7% increase over the past year.
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/newsand ... 615502.htm
Also, if I may add, China will eventually have to float it's currency this year. No way any trading partner is going to continue with the current situation. If that happens, expect the RMB to go up 30% and exports will get whacked really really hard (or atleast the juggernaut like export growth on the back of the "China Price", which is essentially subsidized by the govt due to currency fixing, unlimited cheap finance (for telecom, power and other value added Chinese exports, with govt link/ownership) and tax giveaways)..Inflation is already at 1.9% and inflationary expectations are building up. Interest rates are going to go up and reserve ratios of banks are going up as well. Net result liquidity is going to get sucked out and growth moderated
Cattles are not the only animals people eat. You need to consider Pigs that farmed in China.Theo_Fidel wrote:This is not entirely true. India has ~ 400 million head of cattle, this is 3 to 4 times that in China and US.
And consider other animals, birds, snakes and fish Chinese farm just to eat. They all need to be fed before eating them.China with about 459,000,000 heads estimated in 2002
CHINA rebounded more swiftly from the global downturn than any other big economy, thanks largely to its enormous monetary and fiscal stimulus. In the year to the fourth quarter of 2009, its real GDP is estimated to have grown by more than 10%. But many sceptics claim that its recovery is built on wobbly foundations. Indeed, they say, China now looks ominously like Japan in the late 1980s before its bubble burst and two lost decades of sluggish growth began. Worse, were China to falter now, while the recovery in rich countries is still fragile, it would be a severe blow not just at home but to the whole of the world economy.
On the face of it, the similarities between China today and bubble-era Japan are worrying. Extraordinarily high saving and an undervalued exchange rate have fuelled rapid export-led growth and the world’s biggest current-account surplus. Chronic overinvestment has, it is argued, resulted in vast excess capacity and falling returns on capital. A flood of bank lending threatens a future surge in bad loans, while markets for shares and property look dangerously frothy.
Just as in the late 1980s, when Japan’s economy was tipped to overtake America’s, China’s strong rebound has led many to proclaim that it will become number one sooner than expected. In contrast, a recent flurry of bearish reports warn that China’s economy could soon implode. James Chanos, a hedge-fund investor (and one of the first analysts to spot that Enron’s profits were pure fiction), says that China is “Dubai times 1,000, or worse”. Another hedge fund, Pivot Capital Management, argues that the chances of a hard landing, with a slump in capital spending and a banking crisis, are increasing.
Scary stuff. However, a close inspection of pessimists’ three main concerns—overvalued asset prices, overinvestment and excessive bank lending—suggests that China’s economy is more robust than they think. Start with asset markets. Chinese share prices are nowhere near as giddy as Japan’s were in the late 1980s. In 1989 Tokyo’s stockmarket had a price-earnings ratio of almost 70; today’s figure for Shanghai A shares is 28, well below its long-run average of 37. Granted, prices jumped by 80% last year, but markets in other large emerging economies went up even more: Brazil, India and Russia rose by an average of 120% in dollar terms. And Chinese profits have rebounded faster than those elsewhere. In the three months to November, industrial profits were 70% higher than a year before.
Hehe, anyway there is an Indian friend who is so kind to give me a YEAR for his prediction, not like all those "India will" stories.vina wrote:Good performance. However, it is 2009 is "history" . We are in 2010 , Happy New Year and all that see ?.hina just reported its 2009 economic statistics data
The Chinese GDP of 2009 was 33,535.3 billion yuan (about US$4.9 trillion), an 8.7% increase over the past year.
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/newsand ... 615502.htm
So what use really is historical data ?. You dont drive a car by watching the rear view mirror, but by looking forward through the windshield ! . So looking forward, the current valid news for the Chinese economy is this.Also, if I may add, China will eventually have to float it's currency this year. No way any trading partner is going to continue with the current situation. If that happens, expect the RMB to go up 30% and exports will get whacked really really hard (or atleast the juggernaut like export growth on the back of the "China Price", which is essentially subsidized by the govt due to currency fixing, unlimited cheap finance (for telecom, power and other value added Chinese exports, with govt link/ownership) and tax giveaways)..Inflation is already at 1.9% and inflationary expectations are building up. Interest rates are going to go up and reserve ratios of banks are going up as well. Net result liquidity is going to get sucked out and growth moderated
So wrdos, lets have a bet. In 5 years, if you and I are still in this forum /bulletin board, lets get back and look at the Chinese growth rates from 2007 to 2014 or so. I will stick by my bet that the Chinese growth rate has crested / maxed out and it is going to be moderating from now.
China has entered the phase of S. Korea , Singapore, Malaysia and other NICs in the 90s and Japan in the 80s.. Dont worry. It is the economic equivalent of the laws of gravity catching up only. Not a bad thing. Good for the Chinese people because they get wealthier nominally and really (that is all that matters really).. It might not serve the interests of the CPC goons and thugs. But you know what I think of your commies.. F*ck 'em .
Ah ! Good. So wrdos, as a good Chinese, you surely must be a betting man. Let us see you put your money where you mouth is! Put a bet.. How about even a token amount like say $10.wrdos wrote:The similarities between China today and Japan in the 1980s may look ominous. But China’s boom is unlikely to give way to prolonged slump
Come on. You are an engineer. A one year data is just that, a data point. You cant draw any trend analysis.wrdos wrote:- I bet China can develop faster in 2010 than in 2009
What is so big Deal in that?vina wrote:Come on. You are an engineer. A one year data is just that, a data point. You cant draw any trend analysis.wrdos wrote:- I bet China can develop faster in 2010 than in 2009
Let us look at a trend analysis, starting from today. Let us compare the next 5 years say with the previous 5 years.
The bet is this . I bet $10 on this.
If over the next 5 years the avg GDP growth rate of China (ie 2010 to 2015) is less than the previous 5 years (2010 to 2005), then I win , (or for that matter any 5 year period starting from 1985) and wrdos loses. So wrdos will contribute $10 towards Bharat Rakshak .
If over the next 5 years the avg GDP growth rate of China (ie 2010 to 2015) is HIGHER than the previous 5 years (2010 to 2005) the I lose, wrdos wins. So I (vina) will contribute $10 towards Bharat Rakshak.
Deal ?
wow so many mao's on BRF in false names.TKiran wrote: What is so big Deal in that?
It would be more interesting to predict the growth rates of India during that period (next 5 years). I always admire your accurate predictions. In fact I missed a fortune by not following your predictions. I still regret.
Me? Mao?? How??Raghav K wrote:wow so many mao's on BRF in false names.