vera_k wrote:RamaY wrote:Analyse the correlation between state population/size Vs political affiliation. Then one can see where INC is going with this.
I don't follow. What do you think is the INC's rationale for smaller states?
OK I will say what I think.
In the first group there are 10 largest states:
3 of them are ruled by BJP - two of them are won against anti-incumbency
4 of them are ruled by regional parties - BSP, CPM, DMK, and JanataDal
1 of INC ruled state required a strong coalition with NCP
1 of the states are won by INC due to infighting in BJP
1 of the states wouldn't have been won by INC if not for YSR, who is dead now.
Large states tend to have strong regional parties (BJP is seen here as a multi-state regional party) that can tread their own political/social paths.
The second group there are 11 states. This is the size INC is comfortable with as it can manage them without getting overwhelmed by regional satraps such as YSR.
With large states in Group 1 staying under non-INC control the dynasty cannot be continued.
This is why INC (core leadership) wants to split large states and tactfully brings small-state idea.
There too they have favorites.
They cannot split T'nadu as they have zero say/control in that state.
They already split Bihar and cannot do that again with Nitish/Laloo in control. Have abysmal political presence in the state.
They have some presense in UP and that is why they want to split it before it is too late. They couldn’t propose it when BJP/BSP/SP dominated the political space.
They are in power in AP, that is why they want to split the state NOW. Another round elections and TDP in power they cannot touch it.
They are in power in Maharashtra, and can influence Vidarbha split.
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If I were INC strategist I would prefer to have assured contribution of 100 MP from these 3-4 states than unassured 160-200 MPs. By splitting AP, Maharasthtra, UP will get them ~80-100 MPs in assured block, because the regional parties cannot be affective in all regions of the bi-tri-furcated state.
Only BJP grew up into a reasonable national party. BSP doesn’t have meaningful presence in more than one state. CPM is limited to one state. And the saga continues.
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Now think like an Indian for a moment. Look at the states in bottom two groups. By being so small and ineffective (economically) majority of Indians do not recognize them growing apart from Bharat. That is the time when the overt re-colonization of Bharat starts. Right now some of these states are easily influenced by external players, while being part of Indian union.