Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP), Jan. 29, 2010

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 Feb 2010 09:42

Rangudu, India's strategy is there is no apparent strategy. Its carpe diem.

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 10 Feb 2010 10:17

Carpe Diem and this Indian dispensation? We'll have to see...

Regardless, CRM has hit upon one fundamental truth and strangely enough I said the same thing yesterday here, i.e. India's best hope lies in the "dog's tail" nature of TSPA Generals. They will always fall on their face in trying to punch above their weight.

Just read the NY Times report today. It's sources surely include ISI chief Pasha and Kayani himself and they are talking about "safe exits" for Al Qaeda leadership from TSP to Yemen.

This is not going to be another Kunduz because even if Om-baba ji agrees to this, all it will take is one more scare to come to senses.

TSPA is throwing all cards on the floor just assuming 100% certainty of Unkil's fast departure.

Reminds me of the famous quote from Top Gun:

Your ego is writing checks your body can't cash

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 10 Feb 2010 10:26

CRM is just making India's abrupt volte-face by MMS look like some strategic move. TSP is winning, no doubt about that. Several months ago, prior to Swat "offensive", TSP's obituary was being contemplated. Look where they are today. Only silver lining is that the end game is far away. So India has not lost it all. But somebody, either his own party like after SeS or a combination of BJP and elements of Congress, must stop MMS from further sell out.

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 10 Feb 2010 10:50

CRS,

Raja Mohan's piece is only partly about MMS' actions. Read it carefully.

I don't know why, but something in your posts tells me that you have a propensity to see TSP "winning" all the time. I just don't know why

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 Feb 2010 11:11

R that is unnecessary.

archan · Post by **archan** » 10 Feb 2010 11:15

someone, some time is going to point out the obvious, but I don't think R meant it that way..

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 Feb 2010 11:17

We need both Cassandras and Pollyannas!

archan · Post by **archan** » 10 Feb 2010 11:20

ramana wrote:We need both Cassandras and Pollyannas!

Αυτό είναι ελληνική μου.

RayC · Post by **RayC** » 10 Feb 2010 11:21

What is this funny script?

BRF has changed from Bharat Rakshak using English and Pinglish?

The Link Language chaps will go wild!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 Feb 2010 11:25

Archan, Why you bringing Greek to the TSP thread. They already think they are sikander's progeny!

archan · Post by **archan** » 10 Feb 2010 11:28

ramana wrote:Archan, Why you bringing Greek to the TSP thread. They already think they are sikander's progeny!

Because what you said was Greek to me. You leaned padha-likha people speak in codes which us unwashed abduls fail to comprehend at times.

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 10 Feb 2010 11:30

ramana wrote:R that is unnecessary.

No malice intended Ramana. CRS and I go a long way on this topic. I was just making mirth in these serious times.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 10 Feb 2010 12:01

R-man,

I waiting for mother India to give a few solid punches to TSPA and show the pigs that it means business. Tell then, all these so called strategic chankayan moves (that is, if you even believe thats what MMS is doing) don't mean much. I am mighty pissed seeing that TSP's terror policy is actually being accomodated by Unkil in Afganisthan at the expense of both Afghans & India. This, you must admit is a win for TSP, although as you point out, the end game is still murky.

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 10 Feb 2010 12:08

CRS,

Not that what you wish for is a bad thing, but the future of India needs more than a few lusty, if satisfying, blows to TSPA. Often times, history shows us, things happen in spectacular whimpers. For every Romanian revolution, we have the not so spectacular collapse of the USSR - which came about without any direct set of punches from the US. India's freedom from the oppresive Crown came about after the Brits left with a whimper after the end of WW2 showed them their diminishing status in the world.

TSP has not won diddly squat yet. They will crow even if an Indian moves away from them to escape a "garam hawa".

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 10 Feb 2010 12:14

RamanaGaru,

I know I am derelict in not submitting homework on time

, but my local Barned & Nobles does not have that book by Zbig; can't believe people read foreign policy in this small town on the west coast

. But I did find one book by Zbig, actually it was a conversation moderated by David Ignatius of WP, that included Zbig & Brent Scowcroft. Both of these seemed to have contempt for India. For e.g., both, but Zbig in particular appear Barbara Crosette lite in that they said India cannot play a stabilizing role in the world. The cunning Fox Zbig gives it away when he says that US must not do anything that would weaken TSP, for among other things, it will tempt India to solve Kashmir. Scowcroft also gives it away when he says the nuke deal with India is hurting US today because of its percieved tilt towards India at the expense of TSP. R-man won't like me saying this, but sooner or later, TSP will score another sixer: some form of the nuke deal is on the anvil for TSP IMO

.

Malayappan · Post by **Malayappan** » 10 Feb 2010 12:28

CRS,

Nuke deal when it materialises for pak may not actually be a sixer. I think it is just a matter of time. And that is not necessarily a blow at India as well. OTOH, it will not alter their (pakis') current strategic position. But then, pakis never care about substance - words & gestures mean more to them. So many things need to be done by them to fulfil requirements of such a deal......

amit · Post by **amit** » 10 Feb 2010 12:53

When we talk about a nuke deal for Pakistan, I think it would be useful to consider what kind of deal that could be. Let's take the Indian template. Pakistan would be called to separate its civilian and military sites for starters. And the civilian side would have to open to full international inspection.

Now can somebody educate me as to which Pakistani nuclear installations can be clumped into the civilian side? And who built those plants? And would the builders of those plants be happy with international (read US) inspectors pottering around?

If we conclude that none of the Pakistani plants can be called civilian, then that country would have to invite bids from international companies to come build and maintain nuclear plants. Now would anyone hazard a guess if Aveya, the Russians or even GE and others would be interested in building plants in that benighted country?

Of course the Chinis would be more than happy to build, but do note that those international inspectors we were talking about would be pottering around. I wonder if the Chinis would like that?

And as for Pakis getting Chini N-plants, do we really think they need a nooklear deal for that?

It may very well be that Pakistan would be given a face-saving N-deal (my personal opinion is that it's very unlikely, let me add). However, instead of increasing our BP wouldn't it be better to consider: "So What?"

ArmenT · Post by **ArmenT** » 10 Feb 2010 12:54

Rahul Shukla wrote:Militants allegedly targeting Americans at hotel arrested (Boston Globe)

All that ammo/IED material, and they just gave up to ordinary Paa'stani pandus? Fishy, fishy...

Looks like a 400% posed photograph. For one thing, notice that one chap is still holding his cap in his hand -- probably took it off to put on the hood. Another chap is casually standing there with his hands in his pockets. None of them have their hoods tied on and neither are their hands and legs secured. A couple of those guys seem to be wearing pretty nice shoes as well.

Is some American diplomat visiting Pakistan currently?

Raja Ram · Post by **Raja Ram** » 10 Feb 2010 12:55

ramana, Rangudu and other guru log,

I read the piece by Raja Mohan. Some valid points there. Yet it is also silent on some of the critical aspects as to what is India's gain by opening talks at this stage. Forget, for a moment Pakistani gloating and then wringing hands and then doing both simulateously.

From a practical perspective, India has gained in the following way since imposing a freeze with pakistan and racheting up international support:

1. First and foremost, made it very difficult for the terror directors in the Paki establishment to launch anything spectacular. Result - No major incidences of terror for a while, even in J&K

2. Infiltration getting detected in a far better way and infiltration being difficult for Pakistani army to support.

3. The freeze and the resulting pressures and fissures within Pakistan beginning to bite pakistan and push it further towards the abyss. This has also made the entity's three and a half underwriters being pushed to pressurise pakistan to behave viz a viz India and also raise their cost of support.

I do not want to reiterate or deliberate here on what is in India's interests - the continuation of this artifical entity or its implosion. It is clear however that India is reacting to situations and conditions affecting the West in Afghanistan.

If you look back, the GOI had repeatedly warned the west that its actions will be counter productive right from the days of Afghanistan invasion by the Soviets and the resulting western fightback using pakistan as their base. We payed a tremendous price for that decision by the the West in terms of the the terror war by proxy that was unleashed on us by Pakitan.

Once again the West is disregarding Indian advise on Afghanistan and want to do a deal and run. Once again the impact will be felt in India. By propping up Pakistan in the process, the west led by the US may get what they want, a pliant supportive India that is willing to become a junior partner of the grand alliance of democracies, but what does India get in return?

That is something that is unclear even if you take the most optimistic views. Even the much touted GDP growth rate is actually put at risk by this policy of marching to some one else's tune. I am not calling this a sell out yet. But neither am I able to reconcile this move of the GOI to some grand strategy. All evidence point to this move of GOI being done by a combination of things.

(i) the intense pressure from the US led west to help them cut a deal with Pakistan and get out of Afghanistan.

(ii) the paramountacy of economic growth over all other considerations that is the cornerstone of this dispensation.

(iii) the assessment by the present administration as well as a majority of Indians fed on careful media supported propoganda that Pakistan is somehow a rational state and we can have peaceful relationship with it.

(iv) the vast majority of Indians believe that somehow the future of India is interlinked and dependent on Pakistan and other countries of the region.

(v) a genuine fear that the implosion of Pakistan may also create fissions in India with sub regional and communal forces asking for similar states

(vi) India will achieve big power status only by resolving its disputes with tiny pakistan as promised and often touted by western "experts".

All this and more are a result of some ossified thinking and not understanding and responding to the realpolitik trends and opportunities. That is why I feel that the biggest shackle on GOI and all of us Indians are the ones imposed on our minds - some of it by the west and much of it by ourselves. It is also some of the toughest shackles to break.

I am yet to discern any tactical or strategic gain that can be had from this resumption of talks. Of course, gentle readers, there is a big assumption here. That what some of us percieve as what India's strategic and tactical objectives viz a viz pakistan should be and that of GOI and rest of India's perception of these objectives are actually in synch.

So we will continue to muddle along and trying to convince the West of our genuine problems in return for supporting their continued underwriting of this artificial entity called Pakistan. With a hope that somehow the west and pakistan itself will see the light and the fairness of Indian position and reconcile to live with us in peace.

I do not think that this new move by the GOI is a product of some grand strategy. It looks actions taken to please other powers and maybe is in consonance with the current dispensation's vision of India. Whatever it is, if walks like a duck, squacks like a duck then it is....., there is no point in us trying to see too much into something grander.

As usual just a ramble. Your rambler is no "expert". So take what he rambles for what it is worth.

Malayappan · Post by **Malayappan** » 10 Feb 2010 13:01

Amit,
Thanks for taking the trouble of writing out what I left with those dots

! paki TV spokesmen will have the satisfaction of telling the Abduls that they got a great deal. Little else of substance! hence my comment that will not be a sixer

amit · Post by **amit** » 10 Feb 2010 13:16

CRamS wrote:R-man,

I waiting for mother India to give a few solid punches to TSPA and show the pigs that it means business.

CRS,

If I may join this interesting discussion you are having with R-man, let me say that solid punches are being landed on TSPA all the time and for a pretty long time. It's just that those punches are not being landed in the way we jingos would have liked. In fact the punches are being landed in such a stealth manner that it's only now - I reckon a couple of years - that TSPA has suddenly realised it's punch-drunk and hence is panicking.

Let me explain.

Every year that the Indian economy grows at more than 8 per cent it pulls away from the joke that Pakis call their economy faster and faster. Let's not underestimate the importance of this or the kind of pressure that puts on the Pakis.

A fast growing Indian economy is making it possible for the Armed forces coming up with some staggering numbers in terms of defence acquisitons US$50 billion is a number being casually thrown about. Now even taking into account corruption, the slowness in our acquisition process and various other negatives, that still takes the Indian armed forces streets ahead of the TSPA.

In the non military side, all available indicators suggest that when the next census takes place, there will be a dramatic reduction in illiteracy figures and it's an undeniable fact that more Indians are better off today than say 10 years ago - even though I'd be the first to admit that a lot more needs to be done - and we have seen the emergence of a post-post (ie two generations away) Independence middle class which is more assertive and self-confident than any time in the past 1,000 years.

All these will have/is having consequences of the Pakis who's raison d'etre is equal=equal with Bharat - if not the 1:10 ratio. The Pakis realise that every year that passes and India pulls away the more they are being consigned into the dustbin of history. Far from being a pivotal country it's going to take its place among the worst failed countries of this world.

And hence this frustration and bally ho. I know it's not sexy but the longer India keeps the Pakis and TSPA engaged in meaningless talks the more they are sinking into the quicksand.

As R-man said, it is seldom sexy but if the end result is putting TSPA and the Pakis in their place, IMO it's well worth it.

Let me add a caveat: This post of mine should not be construed as some sort of indirect support for this recent talks initiative. Frankly I'm also mystified as to why now.

amit · Post by **amit** » 10 Feb 2010 13:30

Raja Ram wrote:ramana, Rangudu and other guru log,

I read the piece by Raja Mohan. Some valid points there. Yet it is also silent on some of the critical aspects as to what is India's gain by opening talks at this stage. Forget, for a moment Pakistani gloating and then wringing hands and then doing both simulateously.
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As usual just a ramble. Your rambler is no "expert". So take what he rambles for what it is worth.

Raja Ram ji,

As usual another wonderfully insightful post. However, if you don't mind I'd like to know your thoughts on some issues related to this current developing situation.

But before I do that let me repeat something I wrote in my last post. I'm also mystified at this sudden desire for talks and I can't really fathom what possibility MMS wishes to gain out of it, unless it's to put the Pakis on the back foot and gain more space/time for India.

My question is regarding Afghanistan. I guess it's pretty obvious that the US has decided to quit and run from Afghanistan and is depending on its Munna to keep pretences of another famous American "victory".

Given these circumstances and the fact that US and the West would leave Kabul despite India's advice to the contrary, what do you think would/is the best course of action for India? Should we still keep Pakistan at arms length? Or should we devise some other strategy?

It seems to me that one possible reason why MMS & Co reopened talks is a direct reaction to the decisions/trends witnessed at the London conference. If that's so, what other alternative courses of action are/would be available to India in the event that the US actually pulls out in June of this year?

Thanks!

amit · Post by **amit** » 10 Feb 2010 13:33

Malayappan wrote:Amit,
Thanks for taking the trouble of writing out what I left with those dots ! paki TV spokesmen will have the satisfaction of telling the Abduls that they got a great deal. Little else of substance! hence my comment that will not be a sixer

Boss, the problem is we get too emotional about the Pakis and stop thinking rationally about developments. We are alarmed at the thought of them getting a Nooklear deal. As a result we have reams and reams of posts about that. However, I don't recall seeing one post in which we've tried to think through what such a deal would really entail for the Pakis. I tried to do that and with my limited knowledge on the issue. I found the conclusion surprising to say the least.

negi · Post by **negi** » 10 Feb 2010 13:34

TSP did not win even on 26/11 so what gives ? After all life in Mumbai still goes on at its usual pace , question is what has changed in Dilli after 26/11 ? In 47 it was Nehru who had chai biskoot today it is MMS , if talks were as productive as they are made out to be then India and Pakistan would have been the most peaceful neighbors on the globe .
I see chanakians who were forced to have crow soup after S.e.S have started to yet again 'see' things .

amit · Post by **amit** » 10 Feb 2010 13:50

negi wrote:TSP did not win even on 26/11 so what gives ? After all life in Mumbai still goes on at its usual pace , question is what has changed in Dilli after 26/11 ? In 47 it was Nehru who had chai biskoot today it is MMS , if talks were as productive as they are made out to be then India and Pakistan would have been the most peaceful neighbors on the globe .
I see chanakians who were forced to have crow soup after S.e.S have started to yet again 'see' things .

Negi ji,

Are you looking for peace and bhaicharia with the Pakis??????

That would, I guess, explain your angst that even though we've been talking with the Pakis all the way from Nehru to MMS we've still yet to achieve lasting peace and brotherhood!

I haven't read Arthashastra so can't claim to be a disciple of its famous author but I think the whole purpose of talks is to buy time from the Pakis for reasons I have mentioned above.

And yes SES has become a wathershed event in more ways than one, I see. I guess that's when Time Froze (for some)!

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 10 Feb 2010 14:17

Amit ji nice post. Only one quibble i have with BRF regarding Paki's wanting ==. That's not the case really. Paki's think they want a >> equation with India. After all 1000000 years they have ruled Hindu banias. That is reflected in every policy statement that emanates from those quarters. India begs for talks, India got bust in 47, 65, 71, 99, 2002 and post 26-11. This does'nt stem from an ==. It stems from a >> self identity. So what if India sends a man to the Moon, Deff n dumb got a full scale thread running Pakistan's Moon Mission, whereas they can't launch a sounding rocket to the upper stratosphere.

Paki's demand a >> always from Western nations and try convincing them so. Westerners, i guess if i were one would be confused. I have seen some referring Pak as 2nd world country and India as 3rd world, despite the fact that a state like Maharashtra has almost twice Paki per cap GDP. Pakistan loves playing on perception, rather than reality. It's an illusion they chase, and they readily distort history and reality to suit that illusory version. Many buy it. Indians included. That's why the banalities/ cliches like "India cannot develop without peace with Pakistan."

Fact is India can and is developing despite the barking from the neighborhood. Pukes aren't going to give us land rights anywhere in the near future. We're actually an Island with no road or rail contacts with the outside world, forget CAR. We'll have to grow in the foreseeable future with that in mind. Even public opinion in BD has never been in favor of granting us land rights to get things to and fro from the the NE. So this talk that peace with Pakistan will bring about prosperity and stability is hog wash.

Peace will come about only when Pakistan realizes it's actually insignificant in many ways except nuisance value. If that nuisance value gets overboard, use of nukes etc, it must be told and it possibly knows it's going to finished completely. This is 2010 and not the 12th century when Timur could come to Delhi and massacre 100,000 and news reached help 100 kms away days too late for retaliation. A mass kill terrorist attack, that would possibly unleash forces that could be difficult for anyone to control, would certainly finish the concept of Pakistan and possibly itself endanger Islams survival in the subcontinent. News and anger/ outrage is almost instantaneous these days.

That's why what you posted on the economy makes tremendous sense. These Mumbai type incidents though heinous do one thing: Bring Paki perfidy and intentions into larger sections of the Indian population. They may have to go about their chores today, but the incident is at the back of the mind of hundreds of millions. Meanwhile India pumps in trillions in the next few years into infrastructure, Paki's keep slipping down the sewer.

Paki frustration is about the fact that not only they are able to do an >>, they're also unable to do an ==. What they are telling the West really and angry about it is: forget you treating us >> than India, at least do an ==, dammit. Else we are so frustrated that we can use nukes, help taliban, burn Afghanistan, dump you for China and blah blah. Look back at the 50's and 60's: When Paki's were treated >> than India by the West and Nixon drooled over the handsome General Yahya..how Paki's behaved. They were so confident of the >> they waged war in 65, 71 against all odds. Like a poker player going all in with a 2-4, against someone holding an AA combo. Obviously it didn't work out and nothing is going to work out in the future too.

Problem arises how do we get these fanatics to see the reality that there is no >> and there is also no ==. There's only one way. The problem is if Pakistan remains as a 'stable' entity and one piece it will always think that way and 'growl', 'bark' just like my neighbours' lab does as i go to work. I don't mind it one bit and sometimes when my neighbour's not looking i take a stone and pretend to throw it at it in jest. But i'm happy it's on a leash. Well it's nice to see they are dependent on their 3.5 friends, who control that leash a bit and have done it the last 60 years of it's pathetic existence. We've been relatively pretty safe if you see. Now think, if it's not dependent on the 3.5 friends and rich and wealthy and thus no leash. This would be a real menace to India. Thus a stable, economically developed at peace with itself Pakistan is an imaginary notion. The moment it is, it will devastate India in the final Ghazwa. The nature of the state and the basis of it's founding is just that. No politician worth his or her salt can take Pakistan away from that. The only thing that can break that >> or ==, illusion is breaking it into smaller units. India should just carry on inane, time pass talks, for there is no solution really. India should develop as fast as possible economically. And importantly use back channels and track 3/ 4 /5 methods to contact Baluchi, Sindhi and Pashtun nationalists.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 10 Feb 2010 14:30

harbans wrote:The only thing that can break that >> or ==, illusion is breaking it into smaller units.

I beg to differ. Won't this result in many smaller units having a go at India? Pakistan will have to be deJihadified just as Germany was deNazified. This will mean long term occupation and administration by India while the state machinery is rebuilt with secular elements. This will be reasonably cheap in economic terms since military spending can come down once peace is attained.

shaardula · Post by **shaardula** » 10 Feb 2010 14:36

ArmenT wrote:
Rahul Shukla wrote:Militants allegedly targeting Americans at hotel arrested (Boston Globe)

All that ammo/IED material, and they just gave up to ordinary Paa'stani pandus? Fishy, fishy...
Looks like a 400% posed photograph. For one thing, notice that one chap is still holding his cap in his hand -- probably took it off to put on the hood. Another chap is casually standing there with his hands in his pockets. None of them have their hoods tied on and neither are their hands and legs secured. A couple of those guys seem to be wearing pretty nice shoes as well.

Is some American diplomat visiting Pakistan currently?

yep precisely. looks like some people who are very comfortable doing what they are doing. mebbe these guys are colleagues of the guys in uniform. guys who on their way out for the day, changed into mufti and stopped by to just-get-this-one-last-thing done before they left for the day. at the end of it i one of them would have said, 'hogaya? chalo yaar jaldi karo jaana hein, bazaar bhi jaana hein aaj.'

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 10 Feb 2010 14:39

India Pakistan talks a counterproductive option

Nothing much of what we don't know here, but still it's being concisely put up in mainstream media, Excerpts:

The advocates of resuming talks with Pakistan often argue that India has no other viable options. This reflects an unfortunate bankruptcy in thinking. The fact that India has never in a concerted fashion sought to penalise Pakistan for using terror as an instrument of foreign policy against it does not mean that it cannot do so. A policy designed to dissuade and penalise Pakistan from the use of terror against India could contain the following elements:

* A ruthless exploitation of the faultlines in Pakistan, particularly in Sindh, Baluchistan and the Northern Areas.
* Covert action and, if required, precision strikes to take out Pakistan-based terrorist elements and their supporters including in the ISI. Contingency plans for such actions should be developed urgently, so that in the event of another Mumbai type attack, these can be undertaken within hours.
* India should exercise its rights fully over the Indus waters, as legally permitted under the Indus treaty, so that the flow of these waters to Pakistan is minimised. Notice should be served on Pakistan for the renegotiation of the treaty under which India gets only 20 percent of the water while having 40 percent of the catchment area.
* No talks with Pakistan until such time as it dismantles the infrastructure of terror.
* A vigorous international campaign to project Pakistan as a terrorist state seeking imposition of sanctions against it including suspension of military and economic assistance. (This will, for the present, not have much success as the US and the West need Pakistan's support in Afghanistan. Firm persistence on this issue will, however, over time cut some ice.)
* Countries providing military assistance to Pakistan should be black listed for purposes of weapon purchases.
* A long-term and concerted exercise should be undertaken in the US to replace its policy of mollycoddling Pakistan. The Indian community should be mobilised for this purpose. Additional pressure should be brought to bear through the multi-billion dollar arms and industrial contracts in the works.
* Relationships with countries like Iran and Russia [ Images ] must be repaired. This would require India to be perceived to be capable of acting independently and its ability to resist US pressure.

The aforesaid robust foreign policy approach must be accompanied by the following measures internally:

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 10 Feb 2010 14:55

I beg to differ. Won't this result in many smaller units having a go at India? Pakistan will have to be deJihadified just as Germany was deNazified. This will mean long term occupation and administration by India while the state machinery is rebuilt with secular elements. This will be reasonably cheap in economic terms since military spending can come down once peace is attained.

Vera Ji, Balochi nationalists say why were we not given the option to join India or Iran, why Pakistan. You cannot militarily conquer and rule Pakistan and de jihadify it. At the least not without destroying your own economy.

As for Jihad, who do you think the TTP is waging Jihad now against> Not India, the Paki state who they consider Kufr. Who are the Afghan Talib waging Jihad against? The US whop they consider Kufr. Who is the Paki Army waging Jihad against through non state actors and why? India, because the idea of PA is waging the Ghazwa against India. So Jihad is a relative term, depending upon expediency. After the Talibs finish the Paki Army and subdue the RAPE with stonings and floggings the next Jihad will be against India. That's where Sindh, Balochistan, Pashtunistan come in.

Sindh will depend upon Punjab for water. Punjab on India. Punjab will depend upon Sindh for port access. Both will depend upon Balochistan for gas. There will be hard negotiations and some tensions and treaties negotiated by Swiss/ Norwegians between them. But then if there's violations or perception of them, they will automatically bleat to India. Punjab will cry that Sindh is blocking goods coming into Pakistan or has put an octroi making goods more expensive. India will say Ok cool we'll get you the goods from Kandla or Mumbai. We leverage both parties easily. We also play that to have routes into Afghanistan via Punjab, Sindh, Iran.

When they are broken into smaller entities, India becomes a settler of issues amongst them. When we do so we gain leverage. Smaller states will find it economically unviable to keep nuclear weapons. Nukes can be dismantled as agreements in exchange to propping founding fathers of the newest emerging nations.

Consider the possibilities, Kashmir problem gets thrown out and the people of the Northern areas would merge with Mother Kashmir. China gets cut off from Pakistan. There are just too many rosy options for peace and stability in the region if we split Pakistan or they do it themselves.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 10 Feb 2010 15:06

Another good thing about talks, lets agree to talk ONLY the core issue: Kashmir, Balochistan and water as Paki's have demanded. No terrorism to be included. But do one thing: start using drones or strikes against LeT gatherings in POK or Muridke. Paki's will rush to talk to us on our use of drones. We then should remind them the core issue is Kashmir, Balochistan and Water..and no terror or drones in the talks and continue with chai biscoot on the core issues.

amit · Post by **amit** » 10 Feb 2010 15:24

harbans wrote:Peace will come about only when Pakistan realizes it's actually insignificant in many ways except nuisance value. If that nuisance value gets overboard, use of nukes etc, it must be told and it possibly knows it's going to finished completely. This is 2010 and not the 12th century when Timur could come to Delhi and massacre 100,000 and news reached help 100 kms away days too late for retaliation. A mass kill terrorist attack, that would possibly unleash forces that could be difficult for anyone to control, would certainly finish the concept of Pakistan and possibly itself endanger Islams survival in the subcontinent. News and anger/ outrage is almost instantaneous these days.

That's why what you posted on the economy makes tremendous sense. These Mumbai type incidents though heinous do one thing: Bring Paki perfidy and intentions into larger sections of the Indian population. They may have to go about their chores today, but the incident is at the back of the mind of hundreds of millions. Meanwhile India pumps in trillions in the next few years into infrastructure, Paki's keep slipping down the sewer.

Paki frustration is about the fact that not only they are able to do an >>, they're also unable to do an ==. What they are telling the West really and angry about it is: forget you treating us >> than India, at least do an ==, dammit. Else we are so frustrated that we can use nukes, help taliban, burn Afghanistan, dump you for China and blah blah. Look back at the 50's and 60's: When Paki's were treated >> than India by the West and Nixon drooled over the handsome General Yahya..how Paki's behaved. They were so confident of the >> they waged war in 65, 71 against all odds. Like a poker player going all in with a 2-4, against someone holding an AA combo. Obviously it didn't work out and nothing is going to work out in the future too.

Problem arises how do we get these fanatics to see the reality that there is no >> and there is also no ==. There's only one way. The problem is if Pakistan remains as a 'stable' entity and one piece it will always think that way and 'growl', 'bark' just like my neighbours' lab does as i go to work. I don't mind it one bit and sometimes when my neighbour's not looking i take a stone and pretend to throw it at it in jest. But i'm happy it's on a leash. Well it's nice to see they are dependent on their 3.5 friends, who control that leash a bit and have done it the last 60 years of it's pathetic existence. We've been relatively pretty safe if you see. Now think, if it's not dependent on the 3.5 friends and rich and wealthy and thus no leash. This would be a real menace to India. Thus a stable, economically developed at peace with itself Pakistan is an imaginary notion. The moment it is, it will devastate India in the final Ghazwa. The nature of the state and the basis of it's founding is just that. No politician worth his or her salt can take Pakistan away from that. The only thing that can break that >> or ==, illusion is breaking it into smaller units. India should just carry on inane, time pass talks, for there is no solution really. India should develop as fast as possible economically. And importantly use back channels and track 3/ 4 /5 methods to contact Baluchi, Sindhi and Pashtun nationalists.

Harbans ji,

Very well put. I agree that the Pakis in 1947 were convinced about >>> to the Bania. After 1971 they scaled that down to ==. Now by the end of this decade they will have to reconcile themselves to reality that is they are <<<<< to the SDRE Bania. I think the realisation is creeping in and hence the tough talk and dramatics. In fact they remind me of the typical antics of a TFTA Mard who is being dragged into the operating theatre to have his manhood sterilised.

Your point about the 3.5 friends is also true. But consider this. By some projections India should be a US$4-US$5 trillion economy by 2020 or thereabouts. That brings a whole new set of rules and regulations into the Great Game being played in our neighbourhood. This decade is crucial. Both in terms of economy as well as military. I've talked about the economy. Consider the military aspect by 2020.

I'm no expert but a reading of BRF suggests that the following additions would occur to our Armed Forces:

1) Road mobile, MRIVed and canisterised Agni 5
2) Two, possibly three air craft carriers
3) Three, possibly more, N-subs with BMs
4) Mid way into induction of Pak-Fa
5) A host of stealth warships
6) A networkcentric Armed Forces with dedicated spy and communication satellites with commanders having real time situational awareness on the frontline.

This is just a cursory list, I'm sure gurus in the Mil Forum can give more details. But even with this, forget the sorry farts on the western border, do you think even the 3.5 friends would want to openly take Panga with us?

(Also add a more self-confident and assertive middle class which would be 300 million or thereabouts. I don't think this class will tolerate spineless politicians).

JMT

sum · Post by **sum** » 10 Feb 2010 15:29

Dilli Billi( very powerful one), Satish Chandra speaketh:
http://news.rediff.com/column/2010/feb/10/india-pakistan-talks-a-counter-productive-option.htm

The Indian government's recent decision to seek talks with Pakistan, contrary to its own commitment to the nation that it will engage in this exercise only if the latter provides satisfaction in bringing to book the perpetrators of the Mumbai [ Images ] attack, is a counter-productive option with the following negative implications:

* It reflects the lack of resolution on the part of the government on staying the course in respect of considered commitments and, thereby, lends credence to the view that India is a soft state which can be pushed around. The international community, and particularly our neighbours, cannot but take note of this and factor it in their dealings with us.
* It will encourage Pakistan to conduct their relations with us in a business as usual mode as they have been able to successfully defy us in not curbing their involvement in terrorist activities directed against us. Indeed, we may see a further escalation in such activity as Pakistan will feel that it can undertake any anti Indian action with impunity.
* Engagement in a dialogue with Pakistan will take the edge of our endeavour to project it as a terrorist state and thereby ease such international pressure that it hitherto faced on this account.
* It will underline our susceptibility to act under US pressure as it is, with some justification, being perceived that we have taken this step on US prompting. This cannot but have negative consequences for India's standing in the international comity of nations.
* It will provide a platform for Pakistan to raise unfounded claims about our involvement in terrorism against it.

Leaving aside, however, the downside of the resumption of dialogue with Pakistan as cited above, one needs to be clear as to where it is supposed to lead us and to what purpose.

A policy designed to dissuade and penalise Pakistan from the use of terror against India could contain the following elements:

* A ruthless exploitation of the faultlines in Pakistan, particularly in Sindh, Baluchistan and the Northern Areas.
* Covert action and, if required, precision strikes to take out Pakistan-based terrorist elements and their supporters including in the ISI. Contingency plans for such actions should be developed urgently, so that in the event of another Mumbai type attack, these can be undertaken within hours.
* India should exercise its rights fully over the Indus waters, as legally permitted under the Indus treaty, so that the flow of these waters to Pakistan is minimised. Notice should be served on Pakistan for the renegotiation of the treaty under which India gets only 20 percent of the water while having 40 percent of the catchment area.
* No talks with Pakistan until such time as it dismantles the infrastructure of terror.
* A vigorous international campaign to project Pakistan as a terrorist state seeking imposition of sanctions against it including suspension of military and economic assistance. (This will, for the present, not have much success as the US and the West need Pakistan's support in Afghanistan. Firm persistence on this issue will, however, over time cut some ice.)
* Countries providing military assistance to Pakistan should be black listed for purposes of weapon purchases.
* A long-term and concerted exercise should be undertaken in the US to replace its policy of mollycoddling Pakistan. The Indian community should be mobilised for this purpose. Additional pressure should be brought to bear through the multi-billion dollar arms and industrial contracts in the works.
* Relationships with countries like Iran and Russia [ Images ] must be repaired. This would require India to be perceived to be capable of acting independently and its ability to resist US pressure.

The aforesaid robust foreign policy approach must be accompanied by the following measures internally:

* Since more terror strikes from Pakistan are inevitable the internal security system must be beefed up. Regrettably, the far reaching security reforms initiated under the NDA government in May 2001 based upon the best indigenous professional advice have been languishing under the UPA governments. It is imperative that these reforms, suitably upgraded, are implemented post haste.
* India's strategic deterrent must be given the attention it deserves. It should be made evident that any nuclear attack on India would invite devastating retaliation. For this purpose the appointment of a Chief of Defence Staff is an urgent requirement.
* Particular attention should be paid to the mainstreaming of the Muslim community. A content Muslim community would be the best vaccination against Pakistan's efforts to export terror to India.
* Alienation in Kashmir should be more effectively addressed directly by us. Talks with Pakistan are not necessary for this purpose. Demands for increased autonomy can be met, where necessary within the framework of the Constitution as in any other Indian state.

To conclude, since India's default policy of extending the hand of friendship to Pakistan has had disastrous consequences is it not time to discard it in favour of one which penalises Pakistan for inflicting terrorism on our innocent nationals?

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 10 Feb 2010 15:31

B Raman tweets on the talks offer chankian-ness

Pakistanis are in a quandary. Being not very intelligent, they thought India had capitulated by agreeing to resume composite dialogue

Now they realise India has been clever & cunning and has tried to circumvent it while seemingly proposing talks at FS level

Thery do not know how to react. A big weapon we have is our intelligence and sense of balance. Pak leaders are demagogues. They r confused

http://twitter.com/ramanthink

Raja Ram · Post by **Raja Ram** » 10 Feb 2010 15:35

amit,

You have listed the many realities that is bound to happen, but on the last bolded bit, lies the biggest problem. All the realities and capabilities will amount to nothing, if the shackles on the mind are not broken. Sorry for sounding like the proverbial broken record.

The large assertive middle class is enraptured to the modern myths propogated by elite media, it will only amount to empty symbolism and not translate into anything meaningful. Example - the mammoth rallies post mumbai terror attack amounted nothing but sheet western style symbolism. The administration that was ruling was returned back to power and the state home minister who quit then is back again.

Fighting terrorism and holding Pakistan responsible calls for being ready to pay a heavy price in a battle, the elite middle classes are not for it. They want solutions by soundbyte as a response to terrorism by thousand cuts.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 10 Feb 2010 15:35

Re. breakup of TSP sometimes I wish these animals stay as one because if they breakup there is always a chance that some of them want to join up with India...who needs them....that would be Aurangazeb era through ballot box.

300m middle class is a twin edged sword...one thing the commie murderers figured out about MC correctly is that they are b big time status quo forces...give me peace so I can watch SRK TV and play cricket in peace, give a s..t to rest of nation..

amit · Post by **amit** » 10 Feb 2010 15:48

Raja Ram wrote:amit,

You have listed the many realities that is bound to happen, but on the last bolded bit, lies the biggest problem. All the realities and capabilities will amount to nothing, if the shackles on the mind are not broken. Sorry for sounding like the proverbial broken record.

The large assertive middle class is enraptured to the modern myths propogated by elite media, it will only amount to empty symbolism and not translate into anything meaningful. Example - the mammoth rallies post mumbai terror attack amounted nothing but sheet western style symbolism. The administration that was ruling was returned back to power and the state home minister who quit then is back again.

Fighting terrorism and holding Pakistan responsible calls for being ready to pay a heavy price in a battle, the elite middle classes are not for it. They want solutions by soundbyte as a response to terrorism by thousand cuts.

Raja Ram ji,

It's not that I don't agree with your point. But my hope lies in the fact that those who are in the 20s, 30s and 40s today do not share the memories and hang ups of the partition generation because even their parents were mostly born post-Partition or were too young to remember the trauma of Partition. It will take time but by 2020 these people would move into their 50s, 40s and 30s that is at the peak of their abilities.

Sure they are enamoured by Western symbolism but would they be spineless? I really don't know but I'm hopeful they will not be. Self-confidence is a wonderful elixir and I think the way to defeat Pakistan in the long term is not just by fighting it but also by ignoring it. And people who are in love with their lifestyle can react violently if there's an overt threat of disruption of that lifestyle. The real poor don't care, their situation can't get worse. However, a middle class professional who has substantial stake in the economic well being of Bharat will be very angry if the government can't ensure that the well being is maintained with sufficient security and foreign policy measures.

Regarding your point about the ruling party being voted to power despite 26/11, I don't want to get into this debate but the fact remains that the NDA's record as far as preventing these type of atrocities wasn't much better and so perhaps the electorate was presented with a Hobson's Choice as far as the national security issue is concerned? Of course that does not absolve the Manmohan Singh government of the responsibility for the pathetic response post and especially during 26/11. Two wrongs can never make one right

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 10 Feb 2010 16:12

Who was it that said that 'we have printed so many India cards and distributed them across the world, now the world is playing them against us' was it I-Ass?

Anyway, it could be a great chance to play this 'India card' against TSP/TSPA as re Afghanistan - just tell them if they don't play ball on Afghan, India will be handed over charge after Unkil goes, of course, with US help and arms etc. They will s.t in their pants and do whatever told.

If we work with Unkil, in unkils' own interest, two things can be done to promote this:

a) Some lower level US official be asked to say "India to be given larger role in shaping a post-conflict Afghanistan" - if necessary senior ones can deny it, does not matter
b) Some junior loud mouth minister, perhaps Tharoor can tweet that 'India should not rule out deploying troops in Afghan if situation really warrants' and then of course, say that he was misquoted..

That would be fun to watch..

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 10 Feb 2010 16:14

BTW can someone translate CRM's assertion "Pindi had a full 13 years, until September 2001, to establish its dominance over Kabul. It failed spectacularly"? Does he mean TSP could not control Taliban?

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 10 Feb 2010 16:31

Your point about the 3.5 friends is also true. But consider this. By some projections India should be a US$4-US$5 trillion economy by 2020 or thereabouts. That brings a whole new set of rules and regulations into the Great Game being played in our neighbourhood. This decade is crucial. Both in terms of economy as well as military. I've talked about the economy. Consider the military aspect by 2020.

Right, infact it should be around 7 trillion USD if we take into account base year revisions and a strengthening Indian Rupee by then, apart from lots of blocked black money making it into the mainstream organized economy. Obviously the difference in India (1990-2010) will pale in comparison to the difference (2020-2010). This as you rightly point out is a very defining decade and possibly MMS and team realize nothing must be done to jeopardize that.

OTOH China and the Pukes will do everything to make that happen. Promote insurgencies, totalitarianism in the neighborhood, 26-11's and threats of war, nuclear attacks if we retaliate etc. As China discovers it's bubble is about to burst and it's one party rule is under pressure, it will further join hands with Pakistan to destabilize India. That may be a reason why MMS is going for talks and being soft.

Now India can choose what it wishes in the interim 10 year period:

1. Attempt to bring about peace in Pakistan by giving away Kashmir (not an option)
2. Let Pakistan make strategic depth and bring the Taliban back to Afghanistan.
3. Suffer and retaliate with dossiers more 26-11 type attacks.
4. Allow Pakistan to become Talibanized. (Happening naturally at breakneck speed)
5. Make War and act tough by striking at the next 26-11 and risk the economy getting derailed

As one can see there are no easy options and none are really satisfactory responses India has on the strategic front or can provide for Pakistan as far as conventional responses come and go. You can see here we have no rational way to leverage peace satisfactorily with Pakistan

So the options have to go beyond what current mainstream strategists and politicians are willing to look at. That India at the minimum internally internalize that Pakistan as a single entity is not in India's interests. That once the Taliban take over there's no option left for Sindhi's and Balochi's to gain power. That Taliban will gain control of nuclear weapons and their next Jihad after stringing the last A top honchos on Rawalpindi's lamp posts, will be India. Talibs won't bother a dam about 3.5 friends, economy etc. Live in a mud hut, wear burkha and get flogged or stoned for not having the right beard or saying namaz will be their priority. They'll go for a nuclear war as easily as you'll fling a saucer in a fit of rage.

We are staring if you look at no logical option other than "wishing" it degenerates into smaller puppies and we provide the founding fathers of each with legitimacy provided they give up their little toys. Only then India can breathe in peace and so can the region and world.