Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP), Jan. 29, 2010

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 16 Feb 2010 08:21

Gagan wrote:The beginning of the narrowing of the gap between China and India.

This one factor more than any colours the way GoI acts on Pakistan sponsored terrorism, and in fact on all decisions it makes today.

I feel that GoI intends to somehow convince Pakis to maintain status quo on all issues while they are recovering from their err, issues at home. The current dispensation at the center as it is are masters of maintaining status quo on issues that they feel they can't handle just now.

What is this status-quo ? Continued terror attacks and continued loss of Indian lives, maiming of Indians, loss of property, subverting economy, travel advisories against India, loss of economic opportunity, branding of India as a dangerous country to visit, engage in sports, tour and do business with ?

So my impression is, that with these talks, India will seek to maintain status quo, keep Pakistan amused, keep pulling out new lollipops for the Pakis, while the main accent all the time is to keep the economy going full steam ahead.

This begs two questions, at least. One, so what if our economy grows ? Will it stop Pakistani terrorism or terrorism disappear through a wand ? Second, when will we say that our economy has grown to the point where we can now take some action against terror ? I think we need to know that tipping point, preferably a date or the size of the economy. The next day after reaching that milestone should be announced as the day of reckoning.

Pakistan is an irrelevant sideshow for GoI which would prefer to ignore it, but the chi-Pakis keep trying to bring the Pakis onto center stage.

As I posted before, Nehru felt that India could take back PoK at any time if it so desired. Pakistan was no match for India either militarily or economically. It is now 63 years after that assessment and our woes have only become bigger. Pakistan is not a small state, even though it is a joke and a banana country. It has the potential for big time mischief especially against us and it is demonstrating this every single day. There are powerful backers for that country who are also interested in keeping us tied down. Pakistan is certainly not an irrelevant sideshow.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 16 Feb 2010 08:36

Ilyas Kashmiri, of 313 Brigade fame, wants foreign sportspersons not to visit India

It is now clear that the coming months are going to see murderous, no holds barred attacks. LeT lists the cities that will be attacked and carries out its threat on one of the cities so announced. Now, Ilyas Kashmiri threatens sports events. He is not a man used to idle boast.

"We warn the international community not to send their people to the 2010 Hockey World Cup, IPL and Commonwealth Games. Nor should their people visit India -- if they do, they will be responsible for the consequences," it said.

Pulikeshi · Post by **Pulikeshi** » 16 Feb 2010 08:51

SSridhar wrote:
Pulikeshi, you don't have to go all the way to a blue-blooded American like Mr. Kerry or a naturalized-American like Sidharth Varadarajan for support for talks. Read this, for the views of our own top people.

SSridhar,

You are correct.
What this proves is that the babudom and experts have consistently snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
In contrast, to give the devil his due, the Pakis diplomats and politicians have not only survived, but also managed to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
Notice the inverse relationship when we are talking respective military.
Very somber assessment indeed...

pgbhat · Post by **pgbhat** » 16 Feb 2010 09:04

Marten wrote:X-posted from Afghanistan thread. Wonderful news indeed.
Mullah Baradar, 2nd in line TTP apprehended in joint action by ISI, CIA.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/16/world ... el.html?hp

Newsweek wrote:In all likelihood, you’ve never heard of Mullah Baradar. The only Taliban leader most people know is Mullah Mohammed Omar, the unworldly, one-eyed village preacher who held the grand title amir-ul-momineen—"leader of the faithful"—when he ruled Afghanistan in the late 1990s. Omar remains a high-value target, with a $10 million U.S. bounty on his head. But he hasn't been seen in at least three years, even by his most loyal followers, and rarely issues direct orders anymore. In his place, the adversary that American forces are squaring off against in Afghanistan—the man ultimately responsible for the spike in casualties that has made July the deadliest month for Coalition soldiers since the war began in 2001—is Baradar. A cunning, little-known figure, he may be more dangerous than Omar ever was.

In more than two dozen interviews for this profile, past and present members of the Afghan insurgency portrayed Baradar as no mere stand-in for the reclusive Omar. They say Baradar appoints and fires the Taliban's commanders and governors; presides over its top military council and central ruling Shura in Quetta, the city in southwestern Pakistan where most of the group's senior leaders are based; and issues the group's most important policy statements in his own name. It is key that he controls the Taliban's treasury—hundreds of millions of dollars in -narcotics protection money, ransom payments, highway tolls, and "charitable donations," largely from the Gulf. "He commands all military, political, religious, and financial power," says Mullah Shah Wali Akhund, a guerrilla subcommander from Helmand province who met Baradar this March in Quetta for the fourth time. "Baradar has the makings of a brilliant commander," says Prof. Thomas Johnson, a longtime expert on Afghanistan and an adviser to Coalition forces. "He's able, charismatic, and knows the land and the people so much better than we can hope to do. He could prove a formidable foe."

arun · Post by **arun** » 16 Feb 2010 09:06

Not many in the rest of the world are buying into the President of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan’s spiel earlier this month that the Islamic Republic indeed offers “attractive investment opportunities” and is a “promising regional hub” for investment ( Pak hub of investment, says President ).

Foreign Investment continues downwards with the portfolio investment component cushioning some of the fall in the FDI component of Foreign Investment flows:

Pakistani foreign investment falls 34.4 pct

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 16 Feb 2010 09:08

India signals change of tack by agreeing to talk despite Pune

India's decision to stay with the dialogue is also related to the fact that Pakistan has been refusing to cooperate on Afghanistan unless tensions with India are defused and Kashmir is resolved. This line, that the road to Kabul runs through Kashmir, is now more or less an accepted truth in the US. By agreeing to talks with Pakistan, India will also rob Pakistan of this excuse.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 16 Feb 2010 09:22

abhishek_sharma wrote:India signals change of tack by agreeing to talk despite Pune

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 578083.cms

By clarifying that India will talk, New Delhi has conveyed a maturity of approach and a reasonableness that is bound to be appreciated by its western friends and allies.

Good move by a mature resurgent India. Imagine the horror and embarrassment if western countries were critical of us for unreasonably taking action against the sponsors of terrorism in Pakistan? What would other people say? Our maturity as a nation is now being validated by western fiends and all lies. What could be more satisfying than that to a patriotic Indian. I would any day rather see a few Indians blown up in bombs and a few soldiers gunned down than be shamed in the international community and be accused of immaturity and unreasonableness. We have enough and more people to spare.

Airavat · Post by **Airavat** » 16 Feb 2010 09:28

shyamd wrote:So what do we do? Bomb those tents and just annhilate TSPA installations? Where does that leave Af-Pak? I think this requires analysis.

The GOI's problem is that it is not offering innovative solutions to the terror problem; either to its own people or to the US and Pakistan. The latter two countries say the only solution is talk, give evidence to Pak, which will then arrest terrorists and put them on trial, which as we all know too well ends in a huge farce.

Over the past 30 years Pakistan army has raised terror groups to attack India and we have compiled a huge intelligence database of training camps and launch pads. We know about these camps, as do Uncle and the Pakis, but the former pretends to look the other way. Our solution to the terror problem should be to propose joint operations against these camps. Joint India-US-Pak operations to find and destroy these camps and pads. Pakistani protests of sovereignty violation will not wash since these are joint operations, where India and the US send aircraft on observational missions, while the actual delivery of ordnance on the camps is done by the Pakis.

Some commentators argue that the Pakistan army no longer controls the terror outfits, which have "acquired a life of their own." If that is true, then joint air ops against these camps are imperative for Pakistan's own survival. These commentators will have no leg to stand on if they ask India to talk and India responds with "let us have joint air operations against the terrorists."

Just by proposing joint operations the GOI will resurrect its image among its own people, and escape criticism that it is under foreign pressure. And if anyone suggests that talking of joint anti-terror operations is "absurd" then the GOI can justifiably retort that it is even more absurd to expect India to do nothing while its people are being murdered.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 16 Feb 2010 09:33

Is it Qaeda or Pak ?

pgbhat · Post by **pgbhat** » 16 Feb 2010 09:45

abhishek_sharma wrote:India signals change of tack by agreeing to talk despite Pune

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 578083.cms

Nothing tangible may emerge from this round of talks, but they will nonetheless have symbolic significance. By clarifying that India will talk, New Delhi has conveyed a maturity of approach and a reasonableness that is bound to be appreciated by its western friends and allies.

Are we begging to be slaves here?

if this is not Gunga Din attitude I don't know what is.

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 16 Feb 2010 09:57

K.Subrahmanyam's analysis has obviously strong merits, given that he has the types of information, access and insight than any of us do.

That said, I find it hard to swallow KS's observations that India should even withstand numerous more attacks patiently so that Unkil can squeeze TSP more and TSPA does not get to use the India excuse.

All this makes sense only if there is reason to believe that India would get something for its pains, or even some reasonable strategic space. No other strategic guru is even suggesting that GoI has such an understanding with Unkil. Read G. Parthasarathy, Ashley Tellis etc. for example.

Even if there is some understanding, this is not too good that we are totally outsourcing self defense to Unkil.

negi · Post by **negi** » 16 Feb 2010 10:03

"We warn the international community not to send their people to the 2010 Hockey World Cup, IPL and Commonwealth Games. Nor should their people visit India -- if they do, they will be responsible for the consequences," it said.

Jai Ho ! Lets see how MMS and his troop of chanakians will respond.

Does GOI think this load of elephant crap about "TALKs" which they have been selling to Indians for ages will be bought by the international community ? TSPA have cleverly used AL-QUAIDA to make an open threat to ensure International coverage of this issue.

All in all the TSPA which had been cornered and subdued a bit after Kargil has ratcheted up their 'mission Kashmir' and MMS has been a God sent agent for them.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 16 Feb 2010 10:05

It would be funny, if it weren't tragic.

http://epaper.hindustantimes.com/Articl ... e=1&mode=1

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 16 Feb 2010 10:09

Are we ready to play whole "different ball game" which as per chidambaram should start if Pak does not sustain the peace and initiates terror attacks against India? Let's see what game that is going to be...wait, it must be.....do nothing. But that is not new to us.

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 16 Feb 2010 10:11

Ironically, we see two "Karachi projects" affecting India. The first one is obviously the ISI/pigLeT campaign of terror that might begin with Pune.

The second one is the arrest of Mullah Brader in Karachi. Clearly the reports of Mullah Omar and his shura relocating to Karachi to avoid Drone hits are spot on. I'm not sure if Brader's arrest would be significant if this is all a ploy to make him part of the "good" Taliban negotiations mediated by the ISI.

Both of these "Karachi projects" are likely to seriously affect India if MMS and co remain asleep and/or paralyzed.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 16 Feb 2010 10:18

However, I agree the "talks must go on" is a sign of maturity not just behind the scene but in total media. Recall Kary of Kary-Langoor fame says that we are not going to lose anything by merely talking.

If Pak's theory of "non-state" actors is correct then before anything it needs help in addressing that. Otherwise, it is not even sovereign country and hence no question of talking about issues that it can't control. SAARC provides good platform to help share our learnings. Let us talk about that.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 16 Feb 2010 10:18

pgbhat wrote: Are we begging to be slaves here? if this is not Gunga Din attitude I don't know what is.

I don't know why but even after more than 60 years of independence, majority of Indian leadership yearns for western validation & appreciation. To show how moral we are, how mature we are, as if these things will get us a UNSC seat or help in acknowledgement as a super power. Sorry to say but it appears like a poodle doing tricks to appease its master thinking its master will invite it to the dinner table, something that is never going to happen.

However, implicit in this acceptance is also a new official admission of ``non-state players'' in Pakistan who are independent of the government, or even if they form some parts of the official machinery, are outside the government's control.

Thank you, UPA. A JDAM detonation, ofcourse by non state actors, in Delhi/Mumbai may occur sooner than we think.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 16 Feb 2010 10:23

pgbhat wrote:India signals change of tack by agreeing to talk despite Pune

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 578083.cms

Nothing tangible may emerge from this round of talks, but they will nonetheless have symbolic significance. By clarifying that India will talk, New Delhi has conveyed a maturity of approach and a reasonableness that is bound to be appreciated by its western friends and allies.

This is called strategic subterfuge a.k.a cowardice

. Sorry no other way of characterizing it.

Having entered into talks, India will be asked to make concessions to TSP because once again New Delhi would have conveyed a maturity of approach and a reasonableness that is bound to be appreciated by its western friends and allies.

krithivas · Post by **krithivas** » 16 Feb 2010 10:33

What the world chose to do to Pakistan which is to avoid it like the plague, Pakistan and its non state actor or topless dancers or whatever, are forcing the world to do the same to India by such very targeted threats. They are going after the Indian wheels of progress and MMS is playing the fiddle when the stock market is burning.

SSridhar wrote:Ilyas Kashmiri, of 313 Brigade fame, wants foreign sportspersons not to visit India

It is now clear that the coming months are going to see murderous, no holds barred attacks. LeT lists the cities that will be attacked and carries out its threat on one of the cities so announced. Now, Ilyas Kashmiri threatens sports events. He is not a man used to idle boast.

"We warn the international community not to send their people to the 2010 Hockey World Cup, IPL and Commonwealth Games. Nor should their people visit India -- if they do, they will be responsible for the consequences," it said.

sum · Post by **sum** » 16 Feb 2010 10:43

However, implicit in this acceptance is also a new official admission of ``non-state players'' in Pakistan who are independent of the government, or even if they form some parts of the official machinery, are outside the government's control.

Sureshot confirmation that there will be no consequences if a JDAM happens on Indian soil ( which shouldn't be too far away).

Hope that i am far away from the place it happens since the GoI anyways cares diddly-squat about a few dead Indians in the bigger picture of "piss" with Pak..

R Vaidya · Post by **R Vaidya** » 16 Feb 2010 11:23

Let there be no asha for the Pak demon

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Feb 2010 11:24

BBC - pakis catch one of their biradiri - the new #3

Taliban commander Mullah Baradar 'seized in Pakistan'

A man described as the top Taliban military commander and named as Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar has been captured in Pakistan, US officials say.

Said to be the Taliban's overall number two, he was captured in a secret US-Pakistani raid in Karachi several days ago, The New York Times reported.

Senior officials later confirmed the report, saying Mullah Baradar was "providing intelligence".

"This operation was an enormous success," one official told ABC News.

"It is a very big deal," the official said

.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 16 Feb 2010 11:29

deleted - copyright

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 16 Feb 2010 11:45

How is Indian act of talking to Pakistan going to be appreciated by the western allies? By selling more military goods to India?

Gurmeet Kanwal has recently wrote in IDSA that US is balancing India by arming Pak and setting them up as a challenger.

Not sure what is the great thinking in Delhi about letting West run their agenda in South Asia. What is the benefit to India? Is it economic benefits or protection from China? On China also, we know what happened last year.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 16 Feb 2010 12:23

Mani Shankar Aiyar said on 'Face the Nation':

Talk to Pakistan...If it hadn't been for the accident of partition, these people would have been our fellow countrymen. Why can't we talk to people who would have been our fellow countrymen?

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 16 Feb 2010 12:58

abhishek_sharma wrote:Mani Shankar Aiyar said on 'Face the Nation':

Talk to Pakistan...If it hadn't been for the accident of partition, these people would have been our fellow countrymen. Why can't we talk to people who would have been our fellow countrymen?

This traitor was born in LaWhore, what else can you expect from him but LaWhori logic.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 16 Feb 2010 13:28

Regarding Illyas Kashmiri's threats. GOI has a few choices here.
1) Spent crores of rupees on additional security for sports venues every time a sporting event takes place in India, for years to come.
2) Continue with aman ki asha and brace for random attacks aka maintain status quo.
3) Hunt down Illyas Kashmiri and make an example out of him.

Chinmayanand · Post by **Chinmayanand** » 16 Feb 2010 13:47

shiv wrote: Good move by a mature resurgent India. Imagine the horror and embarrassment if western countries were critical of us for unreasonably taking action against the sponsors of terrorism in Pakistan? What would other people say? Our maturity as a nation is now being validated by western fiends and all lies. What could be more satisfying than that to a patriotic Indian. I would any day rather see a few Indians blown up in bombs and a few soldiers gunned down than be shamed in the international community and be accused of immaturity and unreasonableness. We have enough and more people to spare.

Let us ask the West to show the same maturity by talking to Bin Laden and Mullah Omar.

rajsunder · Post by **rajsunder** » 16 Feb 2010 13:53

R Vaidya wrote:http://www.expressbuzz.com/edition/stor ... GntEw72ik=

By R Vaidyanathan
16 Feb 2010 11:27:00 PM IST

Let there be no asha for the Pak demon

(The author is professor of finance and control, IIM-B. Views expressed are personal. E-mail: [email protected])
________

Nice & informative article, hope some one important reads this article.

Malayappan · Post by **Malayappan** » 16 Feb 2010 15:12

paki looks at the mirror and says

Pakistan is not simply a nuisance or basketcase, but a regional power that has the capability to leverage a superpower’s depedency on it and check the regional growth of India, a rival, neighbor, and potential superpower

Do we have American citizens on this board? Well, here's what a paki thinks of your country's contribution

(pakistan) has mastered the art of making a dollar out of fifteen cents. Some would say, it’s done this by getting the United States to pay the remaining eighty five cents.

And if you want to remind your Congressman or Senator, here is the link - The Kayani Doctrine

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 16 Feb 2010 15:19

x-post from Future Strategic scenario thread:

There are some intriguing developments in the past few days:

- Intense US pressure on MMS & Co to talk to the Pakis, and warnings that India will face terror strikes otherwise.
- Increase in US aid to the Pakis (latest Hafta was some $3.2 billion)
- No protest from the US regarding the recent Lashkar / Jamaat hate conventions.
- Pakis agreeing to back-stab some elements of the Quetta Shura - see Top Taleban commander Mullah Baradar captured in Pakistan (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... 028598.ece)

Can these dots be connected?

Where does this leave India, Karzai, and the Afghan Talibs? What about the Chinese? What carrots and sticks does India have with respect to the Chinese?

The immediate priority for a nationalistic government in Delhi would be to make very clear to the US that all defense and nuclear deals will very much depend on their policies with respect to Pakistan.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 16 Feb 2010 15:48

RVaidya sir, that is one very strongly worded well written article there. Thanks for getting the views of BR on to the mainstream media. This article is surely going to pain quite a few musharrafs on both sides of the border.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 16 Feb 2010 15:53

x-post from future strategic scenario thread:

^^^ Here is an analysis of the scenario:

It appears safe to assume that the Pakis have agreed to make half-hearted efforts to help the US stabilize Afghanistan. In return, the US has agreed to lean on India as regards Kashmir, and has also agreed to allow the Pakis to unleash their rabid dogs against India.

So what does it mean for India?

Stabilization of Afghanistan under a non-Taliban dispensation can only be a positive thing, if the US is actually sincere about this. [In case the US proves less than sincere, India will have to fall back again upon Russia, the CARs and Iran.]

But India can expect to face more terrorism / orchestrated media campaigns / western pressure on the Kashmir issue.

What India should do is assemble a set of carrots and sticks to modulate both US and Chinese support to the Pakis. The US is in dire straits financially, and Indian defense and nuclear contracts can be a significant incentive. The Chinese need Indian raw materials, as well as access to the Indian market. Furthermore, the Chinese would not want to push India fully into the American camp.

So India does have a certain amount leverage. However, this leverage can at best buy some breathing space, nothing more. Ultimately, India will have to face Pakistani terrorism on its own. India needs to establish close working relations with all ethnic, political and religious groups in Pakistan. India needs to operate from inside Pakistan to convince the Punjabi Sunni elite that they have no hope of getting Kashmir, and that waging a war of terror against India will be very costly to their own well-being.

So, the coming months are going to be a delicate time, IMHO.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Feb 2010 15:59

a bunch of madmen are best convinced if randomly one or two are electrocuted and beaten to
death by unknown people in the night. this is what the zionists did to the hamas arms agent in
dubai recently.

talk if you want to but make sure to inflict pain too.

Neela · Post by **Neela** » 16 Feb 2010 16:01

rajsunder wrote:
R Vaidya wrote:http://www.expressbuzz.com/edition/stor ... GntEw72ik=

By R Vaidyanathan
16 Feb 2010 11:27:00 PM IST

Let there be no asha for the Pak demon

(The author is professor of finance and control, IIM-B. Views expressed are personal. E-mail: [email protected])
________
Nice & informative article, hope some one important reads this article.

Brilliant work!

I do have a suggestion though: when something like Pune happens (standard disclaimers apply) , I think we should now begin to include lines like "Indian lives sacrificed in the name of peace". I believe this has a telling effect on people as it reaches out to emotions.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 16 Feb 2010 16:10

^^^ R Vaidya ji, you are brave to publish your email address in the article. I'm sure you will get plenty of furious messages. Let us know about any interesting reactions / feedback that you may get.

Chinmayanand · Post by **Chinmayanand** » 16 Feb 2010 16:16

I think the honourable professor should write it to Dawn and try to get it published.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 16 Feb 2010 16:33

Had there been one relative of a top Congress politico killed in a Paki terrorist attack I wonder what the attitude of the GOI would have been.It's wonderful to preach to the nation,"don't worry,we have a billion+ citizens, what harm is it if thousands each year are murdered by our wonderful neighbours Pakistan? We must talk and continue to talk for the sake of talking", otherwise our poor MEA babus will have no work to do and no fancy diplomatic banquets with the Pakis to attend in the full glare of media spotlights.The "back channels" will also not be able to work out their secret trade deals too fattening the pockets of vested interests.It is a charade perpetrated by rogues and the suffering people of this country ,civilians murdered and our uniformed forces having to face bullets and bombs every day in defending us and their families who have to pay the price for this travesty of governance.

The so-called security analysts and headless chickens of the various thinktanks who want to embrace Pakistan while it plunges the knife deeper into India's body are so remote from the mood of the nation that one of these days there will be a massive backlash that will consume them.The next terrorist attack will see a lot more of the current GOI circus troupe facing shoes and perhaps more thrown at them.

How many of us remember that on Valentine's Day 1931,just two days ago,our great national heroes and martyrs Bhagat Singh,Sukhdev and Rajguru were hanged by the British? We need men like them today to defeat the swine across the border,not the spineless jellyfish masquerading as our leaders.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 16 Feb 2010 16:37

Airavat, Good points. But the Word "India" in the joint ops clearly means its a no no with TSP, but perhaps Joint TSP-US raids plus intel input from India sounds like a starter. But I still think this is all far fetched as everyone has an axe to grind.

I am bored of saying this but, India needs to sort out its covert ops strategy. Why are we so afraid to hunt down and kill these guys in TSP, we do it in J&K, yet are scared to do it across the border. MMS and top leadership need to seriously show some aggression. Wonder what went on in the CCS meet yesterday.

India seriously needs to engage KSA, who appear to be doing a lot of work in Af-Pak and TSP. Some serious negotiations need to be made.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 16 Feb 2010 16:53

Gilani's offer on intelligence sharing

Mr. Gilani said the Indian government “should realise that continuing (to be) impassive in negotiations between the two countries would only benefit the militants and terrorists who were holding the bilateral relations between the two countries hostage.”

OK. We were having continuous negotiations and four rounds of composite dialogue since 2004. Did the terrorist incidents diminish, leave alone stop ? Like parrots, Pakistanis repeat cliched sentences.