Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP), Jan. 29, 2010

[Gerard]

I'm questioning the premise that Pakistan will get concessions from India in any talks.
I see lots of tea, lots of biscuits but little else. And no tea at all if attacks continue.

All this soft border nonsense is premised on Pakistan dismantling the jihadi infrastructure. That won't happen.

[ShauryaT]

X-posted from Afghanistan thread. Wonderful news indeed.
Mullah Baradar, 2nd in line TTP apprehended in joint action by ISI, CIA.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/16/world ... el.html?hp

Remember NYT found out last Thursday, so that tells you something of the timing - I wonder how this works - to mollify ISI members pissed off at this actual cooperation with the CIA, they are told - you may go and blow up some Indians???? Or is it, ISI has earned some capital by cooperating with the CIA, so they promptly expend it on blowing up Indians?

Me thinks, the CIA is running covert ops directly in the region and forcing the ISI to act, when they have their target surrounded. Thoughts on why else would this be happening now in Karachi to the Quetta Shura, who the ISI has not touched?

[ShauryaT]

I'm questioning the premise that Pakistan will get concessions from India in any talks.
I see lots of tea, lots of biscuits but little else. And no tea at all if attacks continue.

All this soft border nonsense is premised on Pakistan dismantling the jihadi infrastructure. That won't happen.

I agree. I would even say, this soft border nonsense is just that nonsense. MEA knows, it will go nowhere and so do the Pakistanis.

[Prasad]

I'm questioning the premise that Pakistan will get concessions from India in any talks.
I see lots of tea, lots of biscuits but little else. And no tea at all if attacks continue.

Gerard,
Not indulding in chai-biskoot is shown to be gaining an upper hand and 'doing' something to deter terrorist attacks each time we get hit and public opinion drums up to stop talking and take stern action. GoI stops talks and thats it. This mollifys the crowds to an extent and people get on with their lives until the wkks come crawling out of the woodworks saying 'well if we didn't have partition, they would've been our brothers onlee'. So chai biskoot in a time-wasting tactic to fool the Indian public and not grand strategy in my eyes.

"Oh look WKKs we're talking onlee. Oh crap, we've had a terrorist strike, people we're taking strong action by calling off talks with pukis!!"

is what is happening time and again. The only people getting screwed and blown up are those going to markets and trying to get on with their lives!

[rsingh]

Another no2 Taliban leader captured. Unkil happy (Bakistan is cooperating). Unkil asked India to give something to Bakis.............at least an chai-biskut session.India agrees...............( pack of parle biskut and some tea in return for some future cooperation on terrorism from Unkil). Baki see the chance and make move. Baki FM goes around hurling insults on India . Asks one of the sleeper cell to do something to rub salt on India.............while they can. OMG we have seen this so many times before. Bakistan behaves like a whore who has spent night with local strongman and is insulting neighbours after Guubo session.

[Rangudu]

Check out Ahmed Rashid the TSP analyst. Spelt things out beautifully. He was just on BBC openly saying ISI were protecting this taleb commander for 8 or 9 years, and he said Why Now?

He said this guy was a key negotiator with Kabul regime and his guys are in negotiations with Riyadh for several months now. Confirms what IOL has been saying. He said that the commander is now free to negotiate openly now that he is under arrest. hmm interesting.

LOL, this is exactly what I wrote yesterday. This whole thing is a scam.

[Rudradev]

Me thinks, the CIA is running covert ops directly in the region and forcing the ISI to act, when they have their target surrounded. Thoughts on why else would this be happening now in Karachi to the Quetta Shura, who the ISI has not touched?

Among the anti-US Taliban groups active in Afg, three major ones are the Haqqani Group, the Quetta Shura (Mullah Omar) and the Gulbuddin Hekmatyar group. Of these, the third is being courted by Iran while the first two have traditionally been ISI/TSPA proxies.

Recently Kayani et al proposed to the US that they would "broker a deal" between Haqqanis and the US that allowed Haqqanis to dominate power-sharing in Afghanistan following the NATO withdrawal . One of the terms proposed was that AQAM personnel associated with the Haqqanis would have "safe passage" out of Afpak to Yemen.

The TSPA has also flat-out refused to mount any ops in North Waziristan which is where the Haqqanis are based. This seems to suggest that, between Quetta Shura and the Haqqanis, TSPA has pinned its hopes on the Haqqanis as the most reliable proxy to exercise strategic depth in post-NATO Afghanistan.

By turning in Mullah Barader (who as 2nd in command to Mullah Omar) the ISI has gone a step further in demonstrating its bias towards Haqqanis vs. Quetta Shura. It has stabbed the Quetta Shura in the back. Maybe this is a "confidence building measure" shown by ISI to the Haqqanis that they are not hedging by supporting QS as an alternative proxy.

But all said and done, I am sure the ISI would not have turned in Mullah Barader unless their hand was forced (same way as with Khalid Sheikh Mohammed). CIA must have tracked him down and surrounded him, then announced to the ISI that they were moving in when it was too late for ISI to tip him off.

What all this means is that Haqqani now enjoys more leverage w.r.t. TSPA/ISI than previously... because their other proxy, the QS, is now going to be hopping mad at the perceived betrayal. So Haqqani is less likely than ever to negotiate a deal whereby his AQAM chums are in any danger of facing repercussions.

[chetak]

WTF 'Joint Administration' ? Who from the Indian so called strategic think tank (is there nay in first place ?) is gonna guarantee that terror attacks will stop after such a concession is made ?

What do you think is happening in Track-II talks?

From the infrequent leaks that occur or some high placed joker you catch at the airport and have a quick chat if he is willing to talk.

If it is not commercially useful information that you are after, strategic affairs are pretty low on most "highly placed jokers" radars.
They are often amused at your interest and taken aback mostly. Since the process is of long gestation they will talk enough for some smart guy to connect the dots.

Senior retired military officers are surprisingly in the loop as many of their friends have gone off the reservation and are actually consorting with the "enemy".

Surprisingly, many of them are easy to talk to and will answer questions provided you don't go about blabbing names. They always know that ships pass each other quietly in the night.

Even if you just hang around the USI in Delhi, its fairly easy to catch a whiff of what is going on. Journos are the next best bet. Many of them are in the know even if they don't actually write about the subject.

The terror attacks will never stop unless we kick a few butts. Both, in pakiland and here at home as well.

[chetak]

But there is Kishanganga and other recent projects. None have been stopped as a gesture to Pakistan.

Right you are.

Maybe to use as leverage later?

[vera_k]

I'm questioning the premise that Pakistan will get concessions from India in any talks.
I see lots of tea, lots of biscuits but little else. And no tea at all if attacks continue.

All this soft border nonsense is premised on Pakistan dismantling the jihadi infrastructure. That won't happen.

To be clear, the premise is that the UPA government will negotiate concessions to Pakistan in talks. Said concessions can be forestalled by other actors like in the case of Siachen, but that is the difference between concessions by the UPA government and concessions by India.

[harbans]

In the HT link by Vir Sanghvi posted last page, he clearly mentions that MMS has said there will be no redrawing of boundaries and it's important in such an agreement that both sides should be able to claim victory to their constituencies. I don't know what they had worked out but can only guess that Gola and MMS came close to agreeing that there would'nt be a change of boundary, but there would be some sort of free movement for Kashmiri's on both sides of the border. What's the difficult part is the 'joint administration' part. Under what constitution?

With large areas of Jammu, Ladhak, Leh you cannot put these areas under a non secular constitution. A joint administration would have to work under a secular set up, not an Islamic one. There are major questions that would arise of currency, foreign policy, defense. None of these are solvable with such contrarian ideologies existing in Pakistan and India.

Who guarantees the 313 or 414 Brigades under XYZ start fighting against the agreement. When Pakistan cannot govern vast portions of it's own land, how can it provide any sort of guarantee that the porousness would not be used to make Kashmir a bigger hell than they have created so far.

This issue does not have a solution with the kind of Pakistan existing next door. There are places where these sort of things could work. An example if Tibet was independent and they wanted free movement with ArP. There'd be absolutely no problem for India, because Tibet would grant us in exchange enormous rights to the Kailash-Mansarover region. None would result in land grabs, terrorism and murder, mayhem. All this because there is ideological congruence between the Tibet and India. This is not possible between China and India. It's not possible between India and Pakistan on Kashmir too.

The only light i see, is that there is no solution emerging except that TSP has to be dismantled. TSP as a solid entity will always want more than parity with India, it will copntinue to hate India and Hindu's. It will try and use the monster of Islamic terror to communalize India, setback it's economy and destabilize it. There is no solution to TSP. It's held together on irreversibly created hatred and ransom due to it's indispensable geographic position wrt Afghanistan and CAR. The powers like 3.5 FODP will always prop that and keep it with a swollen head and identity to India's detriment. Indian polity does'nt have a choice but to internalize dealing with a dismantled TSP.

[archan]

Question is, is India so weak that it will have another country administer part of its own land? and because of what? threat of terrorist attacks?
On one hand they tell me how the economy is growing fast, how it is likely to cross China's growth rate within 5 years and blah blah and on the other hand they cannot handle a quasi failed state that survives on IMF loans and free gifts from other generous "customers"? What the F is this growth worth then? would China have taken any of this crap regardless of what shape their economy was in?
The spineless don't make a nation strong, I am sorry.

[chetak]

Question is, is India so weak that it will have another country administer part of its own land? and because of what? threat of terrorist attacks?

We did not press on in 1971.

We returned the POWs to snake oil peddler bhutto ( and the unwritten agreements died with IG and bhutto). The porki people, by and large hate us.

Our foreign policy is summed up " aa bayle, mujhe maar"

We have seen and paid the price for unprofessionally conducted foreign policy fiascoes by cowboys and cowgirls. Be it the porkis or the sinhalas they both hate us at the end of said fiascoes as do the bangladeshis.

Now we have another cowboy and his sidekick. The lone ranger and tonto but with no silver bullets!

We never learn because we are so weak.

[pgbhat]

Mullah Baradar arrest reports propaganda: Rehman Malik

“We are verifying all those we have arrested. If there is any big target, I will show the nation,” Malik said.

“If the New York Times gives information, it is not a divine truth, it can be wrong. We have joint intelligence sharing and no joint investigation, nor joint raids,” Malik added.

“We are a sovereign state and hence will not allow anybody to come and do any operation. And we will not allow that. So this (report) is propaganda,” he added.

[Gerard]

Was the proposal for the Pakistani government to administer or was it for PoK people to join with the J+K state politicians and administer local government?
This would imply elections in PoK and the dismantling of the terror infrastructure. I can't see Pakistan doing that. That would be acknowledging that jihad has failed and forever accepting a larger India. With their fetish for 'parity' allow such a thing? Could 'Pakistan' survive such a thing?

[Gerard]

We did not press on in 1971.

Would the USSR and the USA have stood idly back and allow such a thing? Or would there have been an oil and arms embargo? How long could India fight under such circumstances?

How easy it is to claim decades later that one of us could have done a better job.

[negi]

^ Why are such lame excuses only reserved for a country as large as India and certainly militarily stronger than Vietnam and Afghanistan ? And what makes you believe USSR would have acted against India specially if Unkil was on the other side ?
All these are speculations and flimsy excuses for inaction point is there was no political will.

[Gerard]

The justification for the Indian action in 1971 was humanitarian intervention - stopping genocide.
What would have been the legal justification to continue the war? When has a member of the United Nations been allowed to be dismembered from outside in such a proposed manner? The USSR itself saw Pakistan as useful (as could be seen in the pressure from Soviet Government in Tashkent etc).

[Dipanker]

As per declassfied British Intel papers Indira's original plan was to retake Pok and destroy Paki army in the process. As per declassfied Nixon papers dismantliong West Pakistan was the red line and 7th fleet was parked in Bay of bengal to ensure that. That is how West Pakistan survived 71.

[Sanku]

I see the economists are not around any more telling us how Chankian the UPA govt is with its brilliant handling of Indian interests.

Wonder if they suddenly lost confidence in their 1 Trillion $ (or whatever is the mythical figure) economy being the panacea of all ills?

[negi]

^ Justification for WAR ? and to whom UN?

Gerard garu I don't wish to argue on this any further for it is going nowhere and makes little sense. The point was about India never capitalized by reclaiming what was annexed in 47 specially when we had an upper hand in 65 , we could have similarly used the 71 conflict to our advantage it need not be in form of a military invasion alone . Hell we never demanded for war damages did we ? Even in kargil the aggressor was let off the hook without being held accountable for the damage caused .

No where in the world does a country fight so many wars with a adversary and proclaims Victory for having barely saved its a$$ and gained 'NOTHING' either in form of territory or even war damages even the toilet papers signed are obfuscations .

[A_Gupta]

^ Justification for WAR ? and to whom UN?

Gerard garu I don't wish to argue on this any further for it is going nowhere and makes little sense. The point was about India never capitalized by reclaiming what was annexed in 47 specially when we had an upper hand in 65 , we could have similarly used the 71 conflict to our advantage it need not be in form of a military invasion alone . Hell we never demanded for war damages did we ? Even in kargil the aggressor was let off the hook without being held accountable for the damage caused .

No where in the world does a country fight so many wars with a adversary and proclaims Victory for having barely saved its a$$ and gained 'NOTHING' either in form of territory or even war damages even the toilet papers signed are obfuscations .

It is very clear that Nixon and Kissinger were willing to risk a nuclear war with the Soviet Union to preserve West Pakistan.

http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/news/20050629/index.htm

[negi]

So ?

Does GOI have to bear moral responsibility of avoiding a nuclear conflict in the world ?
This is turning out to be a riot today we cant go at war because TSP has nukes (btw some even told TSp is nuke nood) and in the past because USA had nooks , nice.

[Sri]

Excellent article on conspiracy theories doing rounds in Pakistan

Pakistanis See a Vast U.S. Conspiracy Against Them by Tim Mcgirk

In 1979, for example, Pakistani radio falsely reported that U.S. aircraft bombed Islam's holiest site in Mecca, prompting a mob to storm the U.S. embassy in Islamabad, killing five American and Pakistani staffers.

[RamaY]

Good summary Harbans garu!

In the HT link by Vir Sanghvi posted last page, he clearly mentions that MMS has said there will be no redrawing of boundaries and it's important in such an agreement that both sides should be able to claim victory to their constituencies. I don't know what they had worked out but can only guess that Gola and MMS came close to agreeing that there would'nt be a change of boundary, but there would be some sort of free movement for Kashmiri's on both sides of the border. What's the difficult part is the 'joint administration' part. Under what constitution?

With large areas of Jammu, Ladhak, Leh you cannot put these areas under a non secular constitution. A joint administration would have to work under a secular set up, not an Islamic one. There are major questions that would arise of currency, foreign policy, defense. None of these are solvable with such contrarian ideologies existing in Pakistan and India.

Who guarantees the 313 or 414 Brigades under XYZ start fighting against the agreement. When Pakistan cannot govern vast portions of it's own land, how can it provide any sort of guarantee that the porousness would not be used to make Kashmir a bigger hell than they have created so far.

This issue does not have a solution with the kind of Pakistan existing next door. There are places where these sort of things could work. An example if Tibet was independent and they wanted free movement with ArP. There'd be absolutely no problem for India, because Tibet would grant us in exchange enormous rights to the Kailash-Mansarover region. None would result in land grabs, terrorism and murder, mayhem. All this because there is ideological congruence between the Tibet and India. This is not possible between China and India. It's not possible between India and Pakistan on Kashmir too.

The only light i see, is that there is no solution emerging except that TSP has to be dismantled. TSP as a solid entity will always want more than parity with India, it will copntinue to hate India and Hindu's. It will try and use the monster of Islamic terror to communalize India, setback it's economy and destabilize it. There is no solution to TSP. It's held together on irreversibly created hatred and ransom due to it's indispensable geographic position wrt Afghanistan and CAR. The powers like 3.5 FODP will always prop that and keep it with a swollen head and identity to India's detriment. Indian polity does'nt have a choice but to internalize dealing with a dismantled TSP.

[Pranav]

BBC never called Paki terrorists as terrorists. Now they have even begun putting "militant" in quotes! All a part of the orchestrated media campaign on behalf of Munna.

'Militant' killed in Kashmir clash with Indian troops: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8515655.stm

[Sri]

Another one from Time
Capturing the Taliban's No. 2: How Much Pakistani Aid?

[rohitvats]

It is very clear that Nixon and Kissinger were willing to risk a nuclear war with the Soviet Union to preserve West Pakistan.

http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/news/20050629/index.htm

Many thanx for the link.

[A Arun]

Unknown Pak group claims responsibility for Pune blast

[svinayak]

No where in the world does a country fight so many wars with a adversary and proclaims Victory for having barely saved its a$$ and gained 'NOTHING' either in form of territory or even war damages even the toilet papers signed are obfuscations .

Have you questioned why is that?

[svinayak]

It is very clear that Nixon and Kissinger were willing to risk a nuclear war with the Soviet Union to preserve West Pakistan.

http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/news/20050629/index.htm

This has been known for so long. THis has been discussed for years in BRF.

[CRamS]

No where in the world does a country fight so many wars with a adversary and proclaims Victory for having barely saved its a$$ and gained 'NOTHING' either in form of territory or even war damages even the toilet papers signed are obfuscations .

You have to define what "victory" means. Has India been able to ignore TSP as it should like a one would ignore a disase infested pig? No it has not. And even if not in substance, equal equal is there in psychological terms. The fact that we are sitting down and talking with them begging from stopping terror is a huge victory for them. TSP views its struggle over India as a long-drawn out affir, and Inshah Allah, in their minds, they will preial one day, i.e., the green crescent over the red fort.

Everybody knows my views on MMS, I remain deeply suspiscous of his commitment to the supremacy of India, rather IMO, he wants to render the entire region as some kind of loose federation of states (the Anglo Saxon plan). But I am hoping against hope, that maybe, just maybe, there is a Chankayan in him whereby he can con TSP into accepting India's natural hegemony, and make TSP disappear from India's radar screen. If he can pull that off while maintaining the status quo, he deserves Bharat Ratna. I better stop dreaming .

[shyamd]

LOL, this is exactly what I wrote yesterday. This whole thing is a scam.

2 things I think:
I think he is brought out to either put pressure on shura, that CIA is gonna catch em all and put them in prison and the rest of the commanders are next OR he is being bought out to support the negotiations, i.e someone to become the official face of the taleban in the media to visit the west for negotiations etc etc - this would mean that KSA GID negotiations have reached an advanced stage. Lets see how this plays out.

The west likes to negotiate in a position of strength, hence the pressure.

[ramana]

However before theorizing further,

Mullah Baradar, 2nd in line TTP apprehended in joint action by ISI, CIA.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/16/world ... el.html?hp
-------------

He ranks second in influence only to Mullah Muhammad Omar, the Taliban’s founder and a close associate of Osama bin Laden before the Sept. 11 attacks.

Most importantly, the next para states:

Mullah Baradar has been in Pakistani custody for several days, with American and Pakistani intelligence officials both taking part in interrogations, according to the officials.

-------------


Yeah, but the dude was killed in 2007. http://www.rferl.org/content/article/1078423.html
So, what is this, his reanimated corpse?

[BijuShet]

...
Everybody knows my views on MMS, I remain deeply suspiscous of his commitment to the supremacy of India, rather IMO, he wants to render the entire region as some kind of loose federation of states (the Anglo Saxon plan). But I am hoping against hope, that maybe, just maybe, there is a Chankayan in him whereby he can con TSP into accepting India's natural hegemony, and make TSP disappear from India's radar screen. If he can pull that off while maintaining the status quo, he deserves Bharat Ratna. I better stop dreaming .

CRamSji let me qoute Indiana poet James Whitcomb Riley (1849–1916) "when I see a bird that walks like a duck and swims like a duck and quacks like a duck, I call that bird a duck."

Look at the policy choices, lectures delivered along with his public statements and actions then tell me if one should call MMS a Hans (Swan) or a Batakh (Duck).

[Rangudu]

Ramana

I believe that 2007 attack just missed Barader. FYI, Barader's top Deputy, Usmani was killed in an airstrike in 2006 and since then these guys got more careful while venturing past the Durand line and in many cases, completely stayed in TSP.

BTW, the reason for my skepticism about this "arrest" is that every report I heard so far said that Barader is TSPA/ISI's point man for talks with the US and he is the guy who met with that UN official in the UAE. Barader is also close to ISI front man Fazlur Rehman Khalil of HuM and has long been in Karachi most likely.

Some reports say that CIA got clinching proof of his presence in that slum and thus the arrest, but I think otherwise. In the guise of interrogations, I would not put past the Americans to cut a deal with him so that they can claim victory in Helmand and then talk from less of a weak position.

You don't think the ISI would feel too bad about letting some poor madrassa kids out to dry in Helmand, do you?

[ramana]

You have to define what "victory" means. Has India been able to ignore TSP as it should like a one would ignore a disase infested pig? No it has not. And even if not in substance, equal equal is there in psychological terms. The fact that we are sitting down and talking with them begging from stopping terror is a huge victory for them. TSP views its struggle over India as a long-drawn out affir, and Inshah Allah, in their minds, they will preial one day, i.e., the green crescent over the red fort.

Everybody knows my views on MMS, I remain deeply suspiscous of his commitment to the supremacy of India, rather IMO, he wants to render the entire region as some kind of loose federation of states (the Anglo Saxon plan). But I am hoping against hope, that maybe, just maybe, there is a Chankayan in him whereby he can con TSP into accepting India's natural hegemony, and make TSP disappear from India's radar screen. If he can pull that off while maintaining the status quo, he deserves Bharat Ratna. I better stop dreaming .

That is the end goal of all jingoes and non-jingoes. Unfortunately conning is not the way to go but to make them realize willingly thaat is the best option for them. To do that they need to get more closer to the West and the KSA ideology and get self-loathing for what they have become, instead what they could have. At same time they won't believe a non-jingo.

[Lalmohan]

71 had big constraints on India. not just the Nixon/Kissinger problem, but China was poised to intervene and the SU was tied in. WW3 was a distinct possibility. none of the superpowers wanted to go to war over SDRE bangladeshis. SU had applied pressure on India post 65 and would have done so again in 71. Mrs G wasn't dumb, she was clear to Sam - you've got 2 weeks to get it done. a number of the Indian general's memoirs talk about the 2 week limit.

wars are not fought in isolation. just like the school yard fight is fought under the shadow of the senior boys.

[ramana]

Ramana

I believe that 2007 attack just missed Barader. FYI, Barader's top Deputy, Usmani was killed in an airstrike in 2006 and since then these guys got more careful while venturing past the Durand line and in many cases, completely stayed in TSP.

So you are saying this the real Barader and not his brother? How do we know TSP didnt pull one Barader for the other?

[Nihat]

I think MMS and GoI is doing part 1 quite alright - Using the economy to Securing a better global position for India.

Part 2 - Streangthning Internal security system , I certainly can't point fingures at chidambaram in that context.

Part 3 - Having a concrete path and policy to talk to TSP . Complete FAIL IMHO.

We have spoken all these years without a clear agaenda and hence allowed pakis the space to Hijack the agenda for talks on their terms.

I too believe that Kashmir is a key agenda and for 2 decades now TSP has used terror in the name of Jihad to blackmail us , all they say is Give us Kashmir and we'll stop the terror.

We need another point of bargain here. IMO , it can be wither one of 2 things.

Water - As has already been established , nothing stops us from building dams on Western Rivers and restricting flow by genrating power and boosting Industrial and agricultural usage. They don't have the courage or ability to hit us conventionally and their booming numbers can push them into a final compromise on J&K stand in exchange for more water.


More assertive claim on POK - I wish everytime the TSP govt. issues any statememnt about Kashmir , GOI would become even more assertive on its claim on POK , even in bilateral meets, media edits etc. Right now it seems like TSP is the only one laying claim on our lands and not the other way around which it should be.