Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP), Jan. 29, 2010

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 18 Feb 2010 02:38

I think destiny is clearing the way for India. That does not make it any less painful, automatic or without price to be paid.

This is how the sequence goes:

(1) USA+UK withdraws from AFG. The main withdrawal takes place in 2010-2011. Symbolic presence and undercover units remain well into 2012-2015. The AFG government is modified to accommodate a section of the Talebs. The USA+UK is increasingly pressurized to maintain Karazai's position within the government of national consensus. But the supply lines come increasingly under disruption. The central and southern countryside reverts to ruthless Taleb control gradually. The Talebs gradually squeeze Karazai out. AFG splits up into a large south-central area controlled by the Talebs, a northern strip controlled by the remnants of Mujahideen, as well as individual warlords. Popular support swings towards Talebs. Remnant undercover units of USA+UK are forced to move out.

(2) The POGWI - Paki Occupation Government of Western India, begins to implement the core Jihadi, TSPA, ISI agenda. It uses the "strategic depth" offered by Taleb controlled territory and deniability of non-state/third-party actors to try and destabilize with intensified and accelerating rate of terror attacks inside India. Pressure rises to concede "Kashmir" to TSP - directly or indirectly. USA is still forced to go on providing support to POGWI, since it has been made clear that unless such support is forthcoming - the POGWI will turn to PRC or Iran, and will no longer holdback terror attacks on US interests. Difficult financial situation and potential costs of such behaviour compel USA to maintain POGWI in power in return for the promise that POGWI will concentrate on India and not on USA. This starts intensifying from 2010. The projected timeline from POGWI side is 2010-2020, and they hope to gain J&K as well as large parts pf northern India during this period.

(3) Initial Indian reaction is split between two camps. A dominant and vocal majority in the decision making and opinion forming circles about the needs to compromise. This force gets stronger in the timeline 2010-2015. Some degree of compromise is actually made and peace and prosperity promised. The compromises are used as signs of weakness on the part of India, and the connected schools of opinion fully exploited by POGWI. US influence is weak enough by this time to control course of AFPAK destiny. This is the turning point.

(4) Since the West can no longer intervene so strongly as before, POGWI and Taleb/Jihadis feel no restraint or obstacle in expanding on India. Indian ruling regimes desperately try to keep the reality of the situation suppressed from the public until the very last moment, so that large-scale violence or military adventures by POGWI and allies come as public surprises. Previous calculations and propaganda about how populations or subgroups will resist such aggressions turn out to be false or over-optimistic. A section of the ruling elite switches allegiance under the excuse of compromising to save whatever can be saved. But the previous line of policy w.r.t POGWI stands delegitimized and leadership associated with such policy stands discredited. Timeline 2015-2025.

(5) Indians partially retreat and consolidate under a newer leadership -2020-2025. Clearing of POGWI from occupied territories begin in a reverse destabilization strategy. The goal of completely eliminating, the core leadership, ideological and educational foundations and structure behind POGWI, is set. Indians take back all occupied territories from 2025-2040.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 18 Feb 2010 02:57

What is it with the obsession with Pakistan?
Sorry but not a whisper on the latest Chinese incursions in Leh and significantly less discussion on the Maoist Massacres. If the Jawans in Bengal had been killed by Pakistan, it would have created a greater buzz.

Hai Ram!

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 18 Feb 2010 03:41

As i said before, now NY Times is confirming it:

Pakistan has removed a key Taliban commander, enhanced cooperation with the United States and ensured a place for itself when parties explore a negotiated end to the Afghan war.

The arrest followed weeks of signals by Pakistan’s military chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani — to NATO officials, Western journalists and military analysts — that Pakistan wanted to be included in any attempts to mediate with the Taliban.

Even before the arrest of the Taliban commander, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, a senior Pakistani intelligence official expressed irritation that Pakistan had been excluded from what he described as American and Afghan approaches to the Taliban.

“On the one hand, the Americans don’t want us to negotiate directly with the Taliban, but then we hear that they are doing it themselves without telling us,” the official said in an interview. “You don’t treat your partners like this.”

Mullah Baradar had been a important contact for the Afghans for years, Afghan officials said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/17/world ... intel.html

An excerpt of what i posted earlier:

After London and Turkey and US pressure on Paki's doing something about the Afghan Taliban, the ISI guessed a good option is to sacrifice this guy and send a message to Taliban, that they cannot expect to negotiate a more independent stance without Pakistani interference and acknowledgment of 'strategic depth' requirements. That's what this is about. Meanwhile US was happy and across forums including the Chinese-American forum WAB, i notice 'experts' express glee at Pakistan's 'change of heart'. Somehow Americans don't understand Paki perfidy too well.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 18 Feb 2010 03:49

More significant info from the NYT article confirming the above is a spoil sport master stroke by TSP:

The Afghan government did not react to the news of Mullah Baradar’s arrest, an indication that it was upset at Pakistan’s action.

But the former Taliban ambassador to Pakistan, Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef, who has led efforts on behalf of President Karzai to persuade the Taliban to negotiate an end to the war, attacked Pakistan’s action as destroying all chances of reconciliation with the rest of the Taliban leadership.

So there was some major effort to get lot's of Taliban foot soldier types weaned away, and Barader was a conduit. ISI blew it away, because they were not being involved. Only one question arises, why Karzai's brother is praising this. Poppy links with the traditional Afghan Taliban? Any ideas?

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 18 Feb 2010 04:36

Jarita wrote:What is it with the obsession with Pakistan?
Sorry but not a whisper on the latest Chinese incursions in Leh and significantly less discussion on the Maoist Massacres. If the Jawans in Bengal had been killed by Pakistan, it would have created a greater buzz.

Hai Ram!

Maoists get help from both our dear neighbors.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 18 Feb 2010 04:53

Somehow Americans don't understand Paki perfidy too well.

Or perhaps the Americans finally twisted Pakistan's arm-I would not be surprised, when the documents are declassified, that the CIA funded and trained the Pakistan Taliban.

Malayappan · Post by **Malayappan** » 18 Feb 2010 06:50

Another Taliban Leader Captured in Pakistan from Newsweek

Salam was grabbed by Pakistani security forces in the city of Faisalabad about a week ago

A source close to Pakistan's leadership indicated that Mullah Baradar is under the control of Pakistan's Interior Ministry, and noted that Pakistani authorities may not treat him gently

pgbhat · Post by **pgbhat** » 18 Feb 2010 06:54

^

A source close to Pakistan's leadership indicated that Mullah Baradar is under the control of Pakistan's Interior Ministry, and noted that Pakistani authorities may not treat him gently

somebody has to tell Rehman Malik this news....hope he reads the paper.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 18 Feb 2010 07:22

http://www.registan.net/index.php/2010/ ... s-capture/

He is an Afghan Taliban figure captured in Sindh. That’s an unavoidable voiding of several Pakistani narratives about the nature and reach of the group.

It was a joint CIA-ISI operation, with the ISI taking the lead. “ISI sab ka dada hai,” as they say: the ISI is everyone’s granddaddy. We paid a price for this, keep an eye out for what it might be.

Baradar supposedly runs the Quetta Shura, which is largely responsible for insurgent activity in the South—including the areas surrounding Marjeh. What his capture means for the day-to-day and strategic activities of the Taliban is unclear, though it could be game-changing.

...

At least in the short term, this could be a great wedge for the U.S. to wield against local powers. In the long term, it might actually mean little because he’s really not that much of a wedge.

Normally, America’s increasing presence in Pakistan is elevated as a primary factor in that country’s destabilization. It is possible the ISI felt this high profile joint raid was worth the risk. It is also possible those destabilization fears are actually overblown. It is also possible the boys in ‘Pindi are incapable of long-term planning (see the bullet about costs, above).

Baradar wrote the Conduct Guidebook, which was meant to moderate some fo the Taliban’s more nastier excesses. Much like the assassination of Nek Mohammed is what gave us five years of Baitullah Mehsud, there is a chance that Baradar’s successor will be much worse. There is also the chance he’ll be weaker and less formidable.

There is a chance this is the opening stage of a gambit to force Mullah Omar to the negotiating table.

...

archan · Post by **archan** » 18 Feb 2010 07:26

Jarita wrote:What is it with the obsession with Pakistan?
Sorry but not a whisper on the latest Chinese incursions in Leh and significantly less discussion on the Maoist Massacres. If the Jawans in Bengal had been killed by Pakistan, it would have created a greater buzz.

Hai Ram!

Who is stopping you from posting in China threads?
Gotta love the smart alecky attitude some postors display.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 18 Feb 2010 08:07

For Indo-Pakistan concord - V.R. Krishna Iyer
Excerpts

Statesmanship argues powerfully for a settlement of the Indo-Pakistan estrangement.

Today both countries are largely insensitive to the cause of peace. Some Jesus must whisper into their minds an ephphatha. Let us prove the Mahatma right when he observed: “A day will come when the world will approach India in its quest for peace and India will become the light of the world.”

There are many Hindu religious centres and even a Hindu college still on Pakistan territory. The converse is true, too {What a pathetic comparison. One Hindu college still in Pakistan ! What does the word 'still' convey ? VR Krishna Iyer is no ordinary man and yet this is the pathetic stuff that the Peaceniks are made of}: Ajmer in Rajasthan is an important religious centre for the Muslim community. General Zia used to make pilgrimages to the Ajmer shrine. Religion is irreligious if it divides. Allah is the cosmos of one world; so is Adi Sankara's Advaita. The state is secular. There is no Islamic Pakistan or Hindu Bharat; all belong to the same universe. Bigotry is anti-God. God is no fanatic; he does not kill but integrates and fraternises. We are all one.

The possession of nuclear weapon capability by both countries is a grave danger. {Why is it a grave danger if India possesses nuclear weapons with its No-first-use doctrine ? How is China's possession any less dangerous ? After all, has it not been China that proliferated nukes and missiles in this region and even beyond and made everyone vulnerable through its reckless behaviour? Left-leaning symptahizers like Justice Krishna Iyer won't see the reality} Either ban it from both, or have a joint control body. Or else, at some stage of the conflict both New Delhi and Islamabad will turn to ashes. These thoughts have burning relevance now since representatives of both countries are going to meet later this month, apparently without reservations. India had suspended a four-year-old peace process with Pakistan after the 26/11 attacks on Mumbai by Pakistan-based Islamist militants in 2008.

When Nikita Khrushchev sent Soviet warships to Cuba with nuclear arms, John F. Kennedy said his fleet, duly armed, would stop that advance. A world-scale confrontation seemed imminent. At that point, one great man, Bertrand Russell, travelled from city to city and held press conferences. In London he told the British people that unless the disaster was averted they would not eat their breakfast the following day. But none, not even Nehru, woke up to his message. Except one man: Khrushchev himself. He withdrew the Soviet fleet, and saved the world.

A similar drama awaits us unless potential nuclear terrorism is stopped right now. {Justice Krishna Iyer must clarify who is indulging in nuclear terrorism. It is China and its protectorate Pakistan which are doing that in this region. His advice should be reserved for them} Dinner parties in Delhi and Id events in Islamabad will all end. Tomorrow may be too late. It needs no astrologer to predict that the Asian humanity's survival is in peril. Awake, arise. It's now or never.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 18 Feb 2010 08:46

To Talk now is wrong

By Kanwal Sibal

http://epaper.hindustantimes.com/Articl ... 012&mode=1

krithivas · Post by **krithivas** » 18 Feb 2010 08:54

V. R. Krishna Iyer should write more such articles - "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt" - let him talk.

Added Later: The language that VRK has used in his past "articles" are truly amusing - You almost need the Dictionary, Thesarus, Encyclopedia Britanica and a representative from the Royal Victorian Court by your side to just understand what he is trying to communicate. He is at war with himself to use the most high-falutin-est (http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/highfalutin) language than in his previous article to prove his absolute command over english language than the actual subject matter.

amit · Post by **amit** » 18 Feb 2010 09:47

krithivas wrote:V. R. Krishna Iyer should write more such articles - "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt" - let him talk.

His agenda should be pretty obvious from the last paragraph. Note India should give Pakistan control of its nuclear weapons (this stupid joint control theory) or India should not have nuclear weapons. And why? Because Asian humanity's survival is in peril.

With clever sounding words Justice Krishna Iyer follows China's tune of boxing India within South Asia while China becomes a global power - of course it needs the nuclear weapons to protect the world from the hegemonic design of the US or A, right Justice Iyer?

A simplistic WWK like Inder Gujral can be tolerated but guys with a Leftist agenda to prop up China are snakes. And if Justice Iyer wrote those lines without realising the implications he's bigger fool than I thought.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Feb 2010 09:47

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/18/world ... ja.html?hp

talibs using well honed snipers to attack marines/afghan army

surely the SSG trained them well using american rifles and textbooks !

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 18 Feb 2010 10:05

When Nikita Khrushchev sent Soviet warships to Cuba with nuclear arms, John F. Kennedy said his fleet, duly armed, would stop that advance. A world-scale confrontation seemed imminent. At that point, one great man, Bertrand Russell, travelled from city to city and held press conferences. In London he told the British people that unless the disaster was averted they would not eat their breakfast the following day. But none, not even Nehru, woke up to his message. Except one man: Khrushchev himself. He withdrew the Soviet fleet, and saved the world.

A similar drama awaits us unless potential nuclear terrorism is stopped right now.

In one stoke , he annointed himself to be a great man and the savior of humanity, a 21st century Bertrand Russel.

So, following the same analogy, not even the modern day Nehru ( MMS) give a hoot about this clarion call from Mr. Iyer except one man - Obama and a women (Kiyani). They need to backoff and take Paki nukes out of the equation.

(someone needs to check if this is same as Justice Krishna Iyer or some shady character- remember the fiasco of Raj Baldev and Baldev Raj

)

symontk · Post by **symontk** » 18 Feb 2010 10:16

And why? Because Asian humanity's survival is in peril.

You guys still didnt understand the meaning, I think.

It means that GOI at some level has taken some decision to target China in case Pakistan uses nukes against India. And that is what worries Mr. Iyer. Otherwise if India and Pak fires nukes against each other why should entire Asia be affected. And the reason of comparision of the cuban crisis where Britain would not have escaped from Soviet attack

amit · Post by **amit** » 18 Feb 2010 10:22

symontk wrote:
And why? Because Asian humanity's survival is in peril.
You guys still didnt understand the meaning, I think.

It means that GOI at some level has taken some decision to target China in case Pakistan uses nukes against India. And that is what worries Mr. Iyer. Otherwise if India and Pak fires nukes against each other why should entire Asia be affected. And the reason of comparision of the cuban crisis where Britain would not have escaped from Soviet attack

Boss you're probably right. Mr Iyer is conveying China's unease. However, that reading still gives a pretty clear picture of where his loyalties lie.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Feb 2010 10:24

lately there is a matter of fact approach about missile announcements as in "we have xyz, you dont like it, stfu and go take a hike".

amit · Post by **amit** » 18 Feb 2010 10:29

Singha wrote:lately there is a matter of fact approach about missile announcements as in "we have xyz, you dont like it, stfu and go take a hike".

I think you're right. All the DRDO announcements and precise description of the capabilities of Agni 3 and 4 which so offended the Chinis were not off the cuff announcements. I reckon could be part of a psyops campaign.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 18 Feb 2010 10:33

SSridhar wrote:For Indo-Pakistan concord - V.R. Krishna Iyer

Apart from the moral degenerecy and cowradice, let me add another angle. he exhibits a kind of elitist arrogance; "jee I am so enlightened". I've met many such NRI morons. And of course next thing you know, he will be on western media puking the same garbage.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 18 Feb 2010 10:51

Another senior Taliban leader by name Mullah Salaam apparently has been arrested also.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 18 Feb 2010 11:02

I don't think that the US will withdraw from Afghanistan this year or next year. I think they will be there for about a decade. Even if they show some token withdrawals before Nov 2012 for CNN/ABC's benefit.

The afghan tour of duty is not just for the war on terror anymore.

I don't know if OBL is alive or not, he was last seen in Karachi after her escaped tora bora, as per Raman-ji's blogs. The US is there in afghanistan doing what? Al quaida is no longer in afghanistan. In fact AlQ has departed afghanistan since the konduz airlift, and perhaps there has been no AlQ there since 2002-2003.

The US is instead digging in for what? Surely not the war against terror.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 18 Feb 2010 11:13

Gagan wrote:I don't think that the US will withdraw from Afghanistan this year or next year.

I think the above assessment is correct. By announcing the timeline of exit, US has kind of left a cat among the chickens and sure enough some of the chickens are being caught.

Meanwhile, here is something to chew on: Peace in Afghanistan?

Two articles referred are:
US, Karzai Clash on Unconditional Talks With Taliban

Peace Talks May Follow Ex-Taliban Mediators' Plan

From the above article:

The mediation team is led by Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef who was the Taliban regime's last ambassador to Pakistan. Statements above would indicate pure fantasy. Porter's next paragraph is just plain weird, or it shows the futility of the effort. "It is unclear how Zaeef and other team members have communicated with Taliban leaders. Muttawakil said in an interview that it would be dangerous to the Taliban to try to contact them directly. 'I don't want anyone to be harmed,' he said.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 18 Feb 2010 11:16

I feel that strategic depth is more directed towards safeguarding the nukes that they have. And to keep their nuke carriers- the fighter aircraft away from the IAF's reach.

The army is not going to move from the plains of punjab to afghanistan. The generals might elope when the Indian army comes calling.

Strategic depth has other meanings. The pakistan army sees afghanistan as a source of opium money for the core commanders and the elite. this is also the route to CAR. If pakistan blocks this route, china benefits by making inroads. If pakistan opens this route, the americans and the west benefits.

That is the strategic depth for pakistan. It is not about pakistan hiding all its military hardware away from India.

But pakistan also has its strategic underbelly right under India's knife - Pakistani Punjab. India can lay waste to this area with ease should India turn genocidal. But the pakistanis rely on India's sanity to constantly push the envelop by escalating and de-escalating terrorist strikes in their strategy of trying to keep india on its toes and focused towards pakistan.

RamaP · Post by **RamaP** » 18 Feb 2010 11:41

Gagan wrote:I don't think that the US will withdraw from Afghanistan this year or next year. I think they will be there for about a decade. Even if they show some token withdrawals before Nov 2012 for CNN/ABC's benefit.

The US is instead digging in for what? Surely not the war against terror.

If I am not mistaken, isn't CAR full of untapped natural gas and oil reserves. And coincidentally, the Russians consider this area as their backyard. What if the Americans are actually targeting to obtain a degree of influence over these reserves and Afghanistan is just a pawn in the new great game? Instead, after observing all the love hate tamasha of USA-TSP w.r.t Afghanistan, I feel that TSP is increasingly becoming the problem rather than a part of the problem. CIA guys running loose, Blackwater is apparently involved in mysterious black ops, national bird comes flying every other day in FATA and finally there is this dark horse in the form of TTP. What if Uncle has turned his sights on TSP itself? If we think on those lines, then even the Mullah Brother's arrest could be interpreted as a result of arm twisting of TSPA by the Uncle. Of course, such a possibility would be a wet dream for the babu at the MEA who always prefers to outsource India's dirty job w.r.t TSP to Uncle himself. Maybe Uncle must have told MMS to back off and indulge in chai-biskoot sessions with TSP (perhaps even bear with some terrorist attacks on Indian soil) while Uncle clears the mess that is Pak-Af.

shravan · Post by **shravan** » 18 Feb 2010 12:06

Three Al-Qaeda associates arrested in Karachi

KARACHI: Three men closely linked to Al-Qaeda were arrested during raids in Karachi’s Gulshan-i-Iqbal area.

Intelligence officials arrested the three from Gulshan-i-Iqbal’s Block 17.

The names of two of the three were released: Kifayatullah and Abu Reyan Al Zarkazi also known as Abu Musa.

Abu Musa is a known associate of Osama Bin Laden and was notorious for firing down US drones in Waziristan.

He was also the commander of foreign combatants in Pakistan and prior to 9/11 travelled with Osama Bin Laden to Sudan.

The three were in Karachi to purchase mechanical parts from Sher Shah. Among other items purchased were washing machine timers — important components in time bombs. — DawnNews

Malayappan · Post by **Malayappan** » 18 Feb 2010 13:00

Dialogue with India
According to this paki -

Now, under global pressure, India has manipulated to emerge as a proponent of the peace process. My assessment is that the initial rounds would be consumed in determining the structure and framework of the talks and substantive issues won't be discussed seriously. Pakistan has been put into an extremely awkward situation. Having repeatedly urged for resumption of the peace process, any insistence on composite dialogue would be seen as negative and disruptive

amit · Post by **amit** » 18 Feb 2010 13:14

Malayappan wrote:Dialogue with India
According to this paki -
Now, under global pressure, India has manipulated to emerge as a proponent of the peace process. My assessment is that the initial rounds would be consumed in determining the structure and framework of the talks and substantive issues won't be discussed seriously. Pakistan has been put into an extremely awkward situation. Having repeatedly urged for resumption of the peace process, any insistence on composite dialogue would be seen as negative and disruptive

This Paki has had his tubelight moment I think. The next para to the one you posted in IMO interesting:

The history of negotiations between Pakistan and India clearly brings out India's strategy for an open-ended negotiating process to buy time to consolidate its position, both internationally and with the Kashmiri leadership. {Meaning the Pakis have resigned themselves to more chai and biskut sessions }India has yielded to US pressure and for its own reasons. It primarily wants to secure its interests and investments in Afghanistan, both political and financial, in the changing regional situation. On the other hand, Pakistan has submitted to US pressure without securing any gains or assurances. India is in the driving seat and will determine direction and destination. I do not see India agreeing to hold talks with Pakistan outside the range of composite dialogue. The focus will be on terrorism being the be-all and end-all of the negotiating rounds. Pakistan should not expect any progress, let alone a breakthrough, for reasons spelled out above. The US, India and Pakistan, each have their own reasons and compulsions. Once the Af-pak strategy achieves its goals and the key role of Pakistan in this strategy is over, the process would be allowed to lapse into oblivion.

Siddiqui Mian may have spelled out the dilemma within TSP and TSPA over the talks. Insisting on their resumption may have been another instance of tactical brilliance on the part of the TFTAs

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 18 Feb 2010 13:20

India may have to think of moving IPL-3 somewhere else because of security threats

Shane Warne says threats of a terrorist attack have him "thinking twice" about playing in this year's Indian Premier League, reports said on Thursday.

Fresh security worries have surfaced ahead of the field hockey World Cup later this month in New Delhi, the Twenty20 cricket tournament in March-April and October's Commonwealth Games.

The developments have prompted the Australian legspin great to urge the organisers of the IPL to consider moving the tournament if threats of a terrorist attack are proven to be credible.

"The threats have certainly got me thinking twice and is of deep concern to athletes across a number of sports," Warne told the British daily.

"If the threats are proven to be real, then organisers of the IPL may look at moving the tournament.

"We moved it last year at short notice and it can be done and there is no way organisers will risk the safety of players and officials."

Pakistan is succeeding in affecting India in many ways with its terrorism. Slowly, India is becoming as insecure to live, visit and take part in sports activities as Pakistan. We used to rejoice when international sports events in Pakistan were called off as visiting teams refused to go there. These are becoming true of India too slowly. P. Chidambaram was forced to refute Ilyas Kashmiri's warning. We will not be very wise in thinking that Pakistan can be ignored because we are growing economically and the widening divide will make Pakistan irrelevant. Pakistan has once again been rescued by its friends and will live to fight us for many years to come. Not only has it saved itself, but is making all the moves to become dominant and very relevant once again. This has been a recurrent pattern.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 18 Feb 2010 13:26

Police confirm terror threat to Jaipur ODI

More of the same.

amit · Post by **amit** » 18 Feb 2010 13:40

Sridhar,

I doubt the GoI would allow IPL-3 to be moved out of India. Because if you do that then there's no way the Hockey World Cup or the Commonwealth Games can be held in India in 2010.

And this call for moving out is only being made by Shane Warne, as far as I can recall he made a similar remark to some other publication a few days ago. None of the IPL franchise owners have said anything like this and in fact Shilpa Shetty gave a statement to the effect that adequate security would be provided.

You're right about the Paki capacity to create trouble. However, this is coming at increasing cost to itself. God forbid if there's a terror strike during these sporting events, then there's no way in hell it can fudge responsibility for it.

I guess the only solution for India is to tighten security to best possible level and ride this out. If we can do that then it results in a serious blow to the terror network of TSPA.

As far as the economy argument goes, the hope is that given time and scope India will grow so big that the three and a half friends would find the cost of supporting that terrorist nation against India becoming prohibitively expensive. Will that actually happen? I don't know but one can only hope.

Also economic growth vs tackling the Paki terror problem are not part of some zero sum game. The point is no GoI (including ones formed by Nationalist Parties) can't just say OK for the next five years we'll settle for the "Hindu rate of growth" and devote all our energies to solving the Paki terror problem. An authoritarian govt like the one in China can do that but can we? Will India's 1.3 billion agree to that? Much as we jingos dislike it, the reality is that a vast majority of Indians are more interested in "roti, kapra aur makhan" issues than in tackling Paki (or for the matter Maoist) terror. I think it should be remembered that the NDA govt was as focused on the economy as the current UPA dispensation seems to be.

My reading is a stronger economy will increase costs for Pakistan, hopefully to a level where they and their friends will find it too expensive. However, unfortunately some posters seem to think such line of thinking is another example of "Dhimmitude".

Sometimes there's a big gap between what's desirable and what's practically achievable, IMO.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 18 Feb 2010 13:57

A strong economy enables higher spending so more weapons can be bought and new types of weapons can be invented. It does not do away with the need to fight a war with an implacable enemy like Pakistan. Unfortunately, per the HT article, our Prime Minister is looking for ways to reduce defence spending and make peace - which knowing Pakistan pretty much ensures failure. There will therefore have to be a change in this policy perhaps driven by a setback at some point in the future, before energies are turned towards defeating the enemy. In this context, a stronger economy by itself is worthless unless it is harnessed to solve the problem.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 18 Feb 2010 14:06

Frpm recent evennts and statements from the ISI's catspaws,it is abundantly clear that Pak wants total control over the terror networks that it hosts.The ones who are getting the chop are the likes Of some AL Q operatives-to put pressure upon the top AlQ leadership to coordinate their activities with the ISI,and the anti-Paki entities who can be sacrificed to Uncle Sam.The large reservoir of anti-Indian terorists will be nurtured,fed,clothed,housed,indoctrinated,armed and sent into India each day as surely as the sun rises in the east.What Pak could not and cannot achieve on the battlefield it is separately trying to achieve across the negotiating table with a GOI of the moment whose overriding ambition appears to be a servile lackey of Uncle Sam,willing to accomodate Pak to almost any extent for a few crumbs from the Washington high table.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 18 Feb 2010 14:10

Linking a strong and muscular policy to mean that we will automatically have Nehruivan rate of growth is pathetic scare mongering and dhhimitude at its worst.

There are no other words to describe it.

MMS as leader of opposition was agony about what the tests would do to economy -- eventually as it turned out all the real heavy lifiting for economy was done by the bum bursting govt which put the economy on its real Hindu rate of growth a sustained 10%, an economy which the next govt is living off by not moving its ass on any useful economic measures.

Chinmayanand · Post by **Chinmayanand** » 18 Feb 2010 14:13

Vacuum blast in Khyber kills 5. Link

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 18 Feb 2010 15:45

Akshut wrote:
I know Sir!

I was taking the *conspiracy* to a new level.

Never said it was a conspiracy, if Bollywood had to send a unifying msg on R-day they could have used other themes. Also, when you see this (from the same song of course):

If Amitabh had to really send out a resounding msg, he could have done the same by standing in front of Dal lake in Srinagar! After all there is no shortage of iconic locations in India. Then why single out a location which has been targeted by terros!

All these things coupled with the fact that the tricolor did not fly in Srinagar gets me into a fit and gets me speculating. After all Bollywood is not a perfectly innocent entity and is known for its WKK tendencies, now it may be that they've used our R-day to do a '==' bhaichara crap!

skaranam · Post by **skaranam** » 18 Feb 2010 16:23

vera_k wrote:A strong economy enables higher spending so more weapons can be bought and new types of weapons can be invented. It does not do away with the need to fight a war with an implacable enemy like Pakistan. Unfortunately, per the HT article, our Prime Minister is looking for ways to reduce defence spending and make peace - which knowing Pakistan pretty much ensures failure. There will therefore have to be a change in this policy perhaps driven by a setback at some point in the future, before energies are turned towards defeating the enemy. In this context, a stronger economy by itself is worthless unless it is harnessed to solve the problem.

India should put pressure on the US to make sure Pak pays hugly for any incident during the CWG and IPL. We are going into talks with Pak so that US has breathing space for Ameriki maneuvers in Afghanistan. The last thing America really wants is India weaker in the region. American strategy to keep the balance and not tilt the balance in favour of Pakistan or china.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 18 Feb 2010 16:37

amit wrote:I doubt the GoI would allow IPL-3 to be moved out of India. Because if you do that then there's no way the Hockey World Cup or the Commonwealth Games can be held in India in 2010.

And this call for moving out is only being made by Shane Warne, as far as I can recall he made a similar remark to some other publication a few days ago. None of the IPL franchise owners have said anything like this and in fact Shilpa Shetty gave a statement to the effect that adequate security would be provided.

Moving IPL-3 out of India or not will not be a decision taken by GoI, just as it did not have any say in selection of players. It will be done by whatever IPL committee that is responsible for that in consultation with the owners. All that GoI may convey to IPL would be that it would provide comprehensive security coverage. Leave that alone. My point is that slowly and surely, foreign players and sports bodies are beginning to feel the security issue of India. The English cricket team left India in the middle after a terror attack though they returned minus some players later on. The Aussie Davis Cup team refused to play in Chennai (of all places) and even conceded the tie and earned opprobrium from the Davis Cup organizing Committee. Still, they stuck to their gun. The UK badminton team pulled out of the World Championships at Hyderabad due to security reasons last year. There is a talk of the UK contingent giving a miss to India in the CWG. I am sure a few more terror attacks will solidify into such a response from some of these sporting bodies for the upcoming events in India. Even for those international sporting events that do take place in our country,many sporting bodies are sending security personnel ahead to review arrangements at every location. The feeling of 'India being insecure' is creeping into the minds of foreign sporting bodies whether we like to accept it or not. Pakistan has already succeeded in its goal.

You're right about the Paki capacity to create trouble. However, this is coming at increasing cost to itself. God forbid if there's a terror strike during these sporting events, then there's no way in hell it can fudge responsibility for it.

OK. It can't fudge responsibility. It cannot even fudge responsibility for several earlier acts, the latest being 26/11. And yet, nothing happened. Again, let's be clear here. Of course, Pakistan's single minded India-obsession has cost it a leg and an arm. Has it ever cared about the cost ? So long as the friends are there to bale it out, and so long as it can sustain hatred for India among its population, it will not only survive but continue to inflict ever increasing pain on India.

I guess the only solution for India is to tighten security to best possible level and ride this out. If we can do that then it results in a serious blow to the terror network of TSPA.

Ride what out ?

As far as the economy argument goes, the hope is that given time and scope India will grow so big that the three and a half friends would find the cost of supporting that terrorist nation against India becoming prohibitively expensive. Will that actually happen? I don't know but one can only hope.

Quite possible. That's only a hope and we don't know when that Day of Deliverance will happen. Nehru & Co believed that independent Pakistan will not survive for too long and would fold back into India. Even Jinnah had his doubts. We don't know what would be the state of affairs geo-politically & geo-strategically the day after reaching the utopian Day of Deliverance that would make us re-think taking action against Pakistan yet again. Such goals are very unclear because the goal post shifts constantly to our disadvantage.

Also economic growth vs tackling the Paki terror problem are not part of some zero sum game.

Absolutely. The first priority of any government is providing security to its citizens. There is only so much a Government can do through a defensive posture of strengthening internal security. I am not saying that either this government or the predecessors have done all that they could for strengthening intelligence gathering, swift action, intelligence sharing, equipping the forces etc. But, beyond a point, the source has to be struck. Again, I am not favouring only a militarist solution; it must be a holistic approach. I link terrorism with economic growth nowadays because I am worried that increasing chaos due to terrorism may affect us economically. Until recently, one was talking stand-alone of tackling terror from Pakistan, without linking that with anything else.

The point is no GoI (including ones formed by Nationalist Parties) can't just say OK for the next five years we'll settle for the "Hindu rate of growth" and devote all our energies to solving the Paki terror problem. An authoritarian govt like the one in China can do that but can we? Will India's 1.3 billion agree to that? Much as we jingos dislike it, the reality is that a vast majority of Indians are more interested in "roti, kapra aur makhan" issues than in tackling Paki (or for the matter Maoist) terror. I think it should be remembered that the NDA govt was as focused on the economy as the current UPA dispensation seems to be.

Amit, nobody is saying that we will tackle Pakistan at the cost of Indian economy. In any case, Indians and Indian economy are taking massive hits due to Pakistani terror. We will only be deceiving ourselves if we forget the cost we have incurred and are incurring because of Pakistani terror. This is already affecting the 'roti, kapra aur makhan'.

However, unfortunately some posters seem to think such line of thinking is another example of "Dhimmitude".

I am certainly one of those posters.

arnab · Post by **arnab** » 18 Feb 2010 16:37

Sanku wrote:There are no other words to describe it.

MMS as leader of opposition was agony about what the tests would do to economy -- eventually as it turned out all the real heavy lifiting for economy was done by the bum bursting govt which put the economy on its real Hindu rate of growth a sustained 10%, an economy which the next govt is living off by not moving its ass on any useful economic measures.

Hasn't it trickled down yet that 'India shining' was not?

The point is GOI has many areas where it needs robust handling - economy, inflation, maoists, regionalism, electricity, water etc. Now this calls for choices (compromises). Please do not kid yourself that India can achieve everything overnight. The dispensation of this government is to focus on internal capacity constraints (right or wrong). I believe that the majority of the Indian people want this. So for the Government - pakistan is just another problem which has to be managed without going overboard. The US is finding out the travails of unintended consequences of spending billions of dollars to avenge Bush senior (Iraq) and WTC (Afghanistan) has left it tetering at the edge of a public debt disaster. This is going to hurt the US far more than the WTC bombings.

Finally, yes I do believe that economics over rides most other issues at the micro level. Think of it this way - many rakshaks who fulminate at the US perfidy in bailing out TSP, do not vote with their feet and leave the country. why? After all their taxes are directly contributing to paki aid? And that is substantially higher than say not buying shan masala or not purchasing ethan allen products.