Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 15 Feb 2010 04:25

I've spent the past two decades poring over these texts to compile a study of Byzantine grand strategy. The United States would do well to heed the following seven lessons if it wishes to remain a great power:

I. Avoid war by every possible means, in all possible circumstances, but always act as if war might start at any time. Train intensively and be ready for battle at all times -- but do not be eager to fight. The highest purpose of combat readiness is to reduce the probability of having to fight.

II. Gather intelligence on the enemy and his mentality, and monitor his actions continuously. Efforts to do so by all possible means might not be very productive, but they are seldom wasted.

III. Campaign vigorously, both offensively and defensively, but avoid battles, especially large-scale battles, except in very favorable circumstances. Don't think like the Romans, who viewed persuasion as just an adjunct to force. Instead, employ force in the smallest possible doses to help persuade the persuadable and harm those not yet amenable to persuasion.

IV. Replace the battle of attrition and occupation of countries with maneuver warfare -- lightning strikes and offensive raids to disrupt enemies, followed by rapid withdrawals. The object is not to destroy your enemies, because they can become tomorrow's allies. A multiplicity of enemies can be less of a threat than just one, so long as they can be persuaded to attack one another.

V. Strive to end wars successfully by recruiting allies to change the balance of power. Diplomacy is even more important during war than peace. Reject, as the Byzantines did, the foolish aphorism that when the guns speak, diplomats fall silent. The most useful allies are those nearest to the enemy, for they know how best to fight his forces.

VI. Subversion is the cheapest path to victory. So cheap, in fact, as compared with the costs and risks of battle, that it must always be attempted, even with the most seemingly irreconcilable enemies. Remember: Even religious fanatics can be bribed, as the Byzantines were some of the first to discover, because zealots can be quite creative in inventing religious justifications for betraying their own cause ("since the ultimate victory of Islam is inevitable anyway …").

VII. When diplomacy and subversion are not enough and fighting is unavoidable, use methods and tactics that exploit enemy weaknesses, avoid consuming combat forces, and patiently whittle down the enemy's strength. This might require much time. But there is no urgency because as soon as one enemy is no more, another will surely take his place. All is constantly changing as rulers and nations rise and fall. Only the empire is eternal -- if, that is, it does not exhaust itself.

Read comments also please.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 15 Feb 2010 07:08

http://www.hindu.com/2010/02/15/stories ... 100800.htm

I know I am somewhat contradicting my earlier assertions about this guy - but he seems to make some sense in this (and a similar theme article in DH a few days ago)

Essentially what he is saying is that Unkil is not ideologically opposed to Islamism, he in fact has absolutely no trouble with it as long as they play a useful game - bring down the commies or help Unkil control states etc. And of course, as long as they don't create internal security issues for mainland US/Europe.

What he doesn't of course, say, certainly not say-able in Chindu, is that commie China has its own agenda which cares a damn for Indian concerns and that if the Islamists were to exempt Xinxiang from their campaign and not create hurdles for China's petroleum conquest ambitions they too have no issues letting them pursue their Kashmir or India agendas. Sudan is a good example, though its Islamists are no threat to India of course.

Added Later:

The actual Chinese FM statement, shown here is quite bald as usual. It has all the nice motherhood statements that can be intrepreted anyway you want. No mention of Taliban.

http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjdt/zyjh/t655421.htm

So what's MKB's agenda here? Try to get India to 'work closely' aka take Chinese diktats on not just Pakistan but also on Afghan in return for vague statements of common interest?

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 16 Feb 2010 23:59

WSJ :: Sumit Ganguly :: Feb 16, 2010 :: Let India Train the Afghan Army

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 17 Feb 2010 01:00

ganguly saab's wishes of IA training is cheaper should not be put forward. I think we should raise the cost of training, especially for the neighborhood counter insurgency training.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 17 Feb 2010 02:01

NRao wrote:WSJ :: Sumit Ganguly :: Feb 16, 2010 :: Let India Train the Afghan Army

This will add to TSP paranoia of double whammy from East and West.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 17 Feb 2010 06:59

Some of the theories floating around.

Baradar’s capture may not be what it seems

Other possibilities remain.

One, which some Afghan political sources are pushing discreetly, is that Baradar has been showing too much interest in negotiation with the West and has been betrayed to the CIA by others within the Taleban or with the connivance of the Pakistani intelligence services. It would not be the first such betrayal within the movement.

Another is that the US presented Pakistan with overwhelming intelligence of Baradar’s location and demanded action. With the Pakistani economy close to bankruptcy it is particularly vulnerable to the threat of financial penalties for inaction against terrorists.

So will Baradar’s capture make a difference to British Forces on the ground in Afghanistan? The Taleban structure is extremely loose and central control is not necessary for day-to-day running of the insurgency.

Baradar was highly effective, but the loss of other senior figures has had a limited impact inside Afghanistan. His dominance within the Quetta Shura, however, could create a power struggle to fill the vacuum. A likely successor will be Mullah Abdullah Zakir who, since his release from Guantánamo Bay, has emerged as the coming force within the insurgency. Big changes in the upper echelons of the Taleban may shift its entire ideological position.

However, if Baradar has intelligence that he is prepared to share, his arrest may produce a domino effect. At the very least it is a blow struck for the CIA after its loss of seven personnel to an al-Qaeda double agent turned suicide bomber in the border areas last month.

For Western commanders the value of the capture lies in the suggestion that senior Taleban are vulnerable, that the Pakistanis are supportive and that progress can be made. But things are rarely what they first appear in this region and this is unlikely to be any different.

sarvadharam · Post by **sarvadharam** » 17 Feb 2010 08:25

Taliban Rape Tapes: A ‘Muslim Abu Ghraib’

http://bigjournalism.com/bthor/2010/02/ ... #more-4410

vina · Post by **vina** » 17 Feb 2010 10:05

Hmm. Pakis being Pakis here . They actually arrested the "good Taliban" and basically have blown blow the bottom out of any chance of negotiations between the Afghans, Americans and the US.

Arrest of Taliban Chief May Be Crucial for Pakistanis

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 17 Feb 2010 23:29

AoA.

Jai Ho.

BBC is reporting a failure of the Pure state?

'Muted' Pakistan media response to Taliban arrest

Pakis want to be part of the process! : )

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 18 Feb 2010 21:40

harbans wrote:
U.S. Pressed Pakistan for Taliban Chief's Arrest

The Americans also assured the Pakistanis that the U.S. will remain in the region and continue to provide resources to maintain stability.

At the same time, the U.S. presented what officials say was strong evidence that at least some ISI agents—a few of them senior—had told the Afghan Taliban about the movements and locations of NATO forces in Afghanistan.

ISI officers were also sitting in on Afghan Taliban leadership meetings and providing strategic guidance and logistical support to the group, the U.S. charged. There was also ample evidence of ISI funding of Taliban activities, the officials said.

With ISI officers attending meetings of the top Taliban leadership, the Pakistanis couldn't say they didn't know where Mullah Baradar was, said a former Defense Department official.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 19 Feb 2010 02:01

Some worry that Af-Pak-> Pak-Af-> Af-PoK.

x-post...

Pioneer, 19 Feb 2010

SOURCE

OPED | Friday, February 19, 2010 |

Shadow of 313 Brigade

Shashi Shekhar

The Pune bombing has come at a crucial juncture for India as Ilyas Kashmiri has called for renewed jihad, threatening to cripple normal life and sporting events. Perhaps if AfPak were to become Af-PoK, India might just be able to call his — and Pakistan’s — bluff

Two days after the Pune bomb blast there has been an indirect claim of responsibility from Ilyas Kashmiri’s 313 Brigade. The indirect claim comes in the form of an e-mail to Syed Saleem Shahzad of Asia Times. While the e-mail makes no direct mention of the Pune bombing it issues an explicit warning on the upcoming Indian Premier League Twenty20 Cricket League and the Commonwealth Games in Delhi. The e-mail also goes on to make threats against India on the Kashmir issue with specific reference to an incident at Badipuar. It also rakes up the 2002 Gujarat riots and the Babri masjid demolition.

At this time there is no independent corroboration of this indirect claim nor has the authenticity of the e-mail been established. It must also be stated for the record that there is no precedent of Ilyas Kashmiri’s 313 Brigade making direct claims of responsibility for attacks, a fact that even Syed Saleem Shahzad acknowledges. The e-mail must nevertheless be treated as another dot that must be connected and analysed within the overall body of evidence in the public domain.

While this e-mail is purported to have originated from 313 Brigade which is allied with the Pakistani Taliban and Al-Qaeda against the establishment in Pakistan, the explicit threat to Pune on February 5 was from Lashkar-e-Tayyeba’s parent Jamat-ud-Dawa’h which is known to be close to the establishment in Pakistan.

To better understand this apparent contradiction we must review the body of evidence that has emerged from the Chicago conspiracy case involving David Coleman Headley and Tahawwur Rana on how the Lashkar and 313 Brigade have collaborated.

As has been pointed out in this column on earlier occasions there existed a loose collaboration between Ilyas Kashmiri affiliated Major Abdur Rehman and the still to be identified Lashkar-e-Tayyeba commander presume to be Sajid Mir. Headley and Rana were known to be in touch with both and Rana specifically was charged with having obtained prior knowledge of the 26/11 Mumbai attacks from Abdur Rehman.

While the primary faultline between the 313 Brigade and the Lashkar was about terrorist attacks inside Pakistan, as the Karachi Project reveals there was a convergence between the two on attacks outside Pakistan. It must also be noted that in December, 2008 Syed Saleem Shahzad writing in the Asia Times had described this convergence as a collaboration between a Karachi-based ISI Major controlling Lashkar and the Ilyas Kashmiri controlled HuJI-B network in Bangladesh with Indian mujahideen foot soldiers in India like Abdul Subhan Tauqeer.

In December, 2009 there were a slew of reports on Al Qaeda’s strategy to shift the theatre of war outside the AfPak region to India, Yemen and other international targets. Since then we have learned that the failed Christmas day attack in the United States had originated in Yemen. These reports had also pointed to Al Qaeda’s strategy of disrupting the Nato supply route through Karachi. Since then Karachi has been witness to several attacks of terror aimed at sectarian targets while targeted killings continued unabated in that city. In the past few weeks there have also been reports of attacks on Nato supply trucks travelling from Karachi to the AfPak frontier.

While the credibility of this e-mail is yet to be established it would be imprudent to not connect the dots with another missive from Ilyas Kashmiri in recent weeks. On January 28 this columnist writing on the rise of Ilyas Kashmiri within Al Qaeda’s ranks had referenced a purported letter from Ilyas Kashmiri to Muttahida Jehad Council and Command Council a conglomerate of all major militant outfits based in Islamabad. The details that appeared in the Daily Excelsior listed the 313 HuJI brigade office at Main Madina, 14/118, No 17, Kotli in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Quoting from the letter, it said that Ilyas Kashmiri had asked the councils to replace ‘general mujahideen’ (normal militants) with fidayeens and push them into different parts of India, including Jammu & Kashmir for carrying out the terror strikes. It must be noted that in early February jihadi events in PoK to mark Kashmir Solidarity Day saw speaker after speaker almost answer Ilyas Kashmiri’s call for renewed jihad against India.

It is clear that there is a convergence of interests between the pro-establishment and anti-establishment jihadi factions in Pakistan on renewed terror attacks in India. With the recent push for talks between India and Pakistan it is clear that the establishment is looking for ways to avoid talks as it would be denied of excuses on postponing military offensives along the Durand Line. It is also clear that the Pakistani Taliban and Al Qaeda would like nothing better than distracting the Americans, since both have been at the receiving end of relentless Drone strikes in recent weeks.

The Pune bombing comes at a crucial juncture for India. While the Manmohan Singh-led UPA Government seems determined to pursue talks with Pakistan the principal political Opposition BJP has categorically demanded calling talks off in light of the renewed terror attacks. As the cycle of talks and terror is set to play itself out all over again it is unclear if India has an end game in sight.

India must evolve a long term strategy to deal with this convergence of interests between military and jihadi elements within Pakistan. Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities continue to provide it with a shield in waging asymmetric war against India through non-state players. With limited covert options it is time India brought international focus to Ilyas Kashmiri inspired jihadi activity in PoK. Perhaps if AfPak were to become Af-PoK India might just be able to call Pakistan’s nuclear bluff.

-- The writer, an expert on security affairs, tracks terrorism in South Asia.

So he is saying that the involvement of Illyas Kashmiri gives India a chance to convert Af-Pak to Af-PoK? But we dont want to ruin PoK. We should work to drain the PoK of normal terrorists.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 19 Feb 2010 04:09

He seems to be saying that to Pakistan Af-PoK is to focus on K, to India it should be to focus on Illyas Kashmiri and ilk. That Pakistan is actually incubating the same kidas that the US faces along Af-Pak. No difference.

If played properly it will work.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 19 Feb 2010 21:14

Drone strike kills son of militant linked to Taliban, al Qaeda

Muhammad Haqqani, son of Jalaluddin Haqqani, was one of the four people killed in the drone strike on a militant compound in Pakistan's tribal region in North Waziristan, according to two Pakistani intelligence sources.

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 19 Feb 2010 21:35

well it now transpires that mulla baradar was performing Haj/umra in SA some time back.... and was talking to SA secretly.... it seems mulla baradar was trying to be the good taliban ( without ISI backing ) ... but by his arrest has tainted him forever and only those who are backed by ISI can be the good taliban !

his arrest is a salvo from napakis showing their importance to all and the need for involving them in any settlement of A'stan.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 19 Feb 2010 21:39

As many have speculated here, including R-man, TSP may be prematurely declaring victory. Lyse Doucet is a good reporter and here she analyzes TSP's strategy in arresting that Mullah whatever. Look at the last part:

One Western source in Kabul said that the Americans were exaggerating the level of co-operation.

US intelligence officer Col Shaffer argues that what happens next is of key importance.

"We should watch very closely what happens," he remarked.

In other words, far from getting the coveted prize, we are in the middle overs of a tense 1-day match, chasing a stiff target, with TSP batting, an d us SDREs bowling, while the umpire Unkil is watching closely (I don't see too much of maacho Stanley boy on TV, parroting whatever Tallibunny trophies he can show so far; perhaps he has to wait till Evan Lysacek and Lindsey Vonn get their share of the adulation

).

sum · Post by **sum** » 20 Feb 2010 12:15

X-post:

sum wrote:New Delhi must hold its nerve in the Great Game

New Delhi must hold its nerve in the Great Game
February 19, 2010 17:36 IST

Last July, the US-led coalition forces launched Operation Khanjar with the two-fold objective of driving out the Taliban [ Images ] from their strongholds in southern Afghanistan and establishing the writ of the government over these lawless districts. The onslaught didn't exactly set the Helmand River on fire.

Last week, the Afghan National Army along with American and British forces launched Operation Moshtarak (means together or joint in vernacular) to dislodge entrenched insurgents from the Taliban citadel of Marjah in Helmand province, especially from the provincial capital Lashkar Gah and the poppy-growing tracts thereabouts. This is a foray right out of NATO commander General Stanley McChrystal's long-planned military offensive. The idea underpinning the military 'surge' is to establish control over large swathes of the south and east of Afghanistan, and then to transact with the Taliban from a position of strength to ultimately enable Uncle Sam to 'exit' the badlands with some dignity intact.

India [ Images ] has invested much in the reconstruction of strife-torn Afghanistan, and has been jostling for influence there. Rightfully, as Afghanistan is also our gateway to the hydrocarbon-rich Central Asian countries of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

A notion has gained currency lately that Pakistan has artfully manouevred to upstage and marginalise India in the recently held Istanbul and London [ Images ] conferences organised to outline the endgame in Afghanistan. In fact, the Pakistan army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani [ Images ] was so chuffed and gung-ho that he shot his mouth off -- that his army was and is India-centric and therefore entitled to 'strategic depth' in Afghanistan.

Kayani obviously expects his army to reap the bumper benefits of bearing and rearing the Afghan Taliban, especially the Jalaluddin Haqqani band. Simply put, Gen Kayani has a two-pronged strategy up his sleeve: One, to bridle Indian influence in Afghanistan, and two, to conserve Pakistan's 'strategic assets' (the rabid jihadi elements inimical to India). This is no state secret but making it public so brazenly did raise a few eyebrows.

No doubt Pakistan has milked its geopolitical 'indispensability', and has now begun to take advantage of the West's war fatigue and lily-livered President Obama's [ Images ] Afghan strategy rather rapaciously. That the star of China -- Pakistan's godfather -- is on the rise has definitely emboldened Gen Kayani to inveigh against India on Kashmir [ Images ] and the Indus waters treaty.

Although Pakistan has stolen a march over India through deft footwork, the situation in Afghanistan is actually very fluid and everything will depend on the course of the military surge, and therefore India needs to keep an ear to the ground and act adroitly as the events unfold.

The Pak army chief's unsubtle and arrogant triumphalism is apparently to betray him having secured vital concessions -- as payback for his country's 'selfless' contribution to counter-terrorism -- on Kashmir, suzerainty over Afghanistan and an imminent unchaining from the nuclear doghouse. Mind game, psywar, you see.

Consider this: Since the US forces cannot be seen to vacate Afghanistan with their tails tucked between their legs, they have to notch up few visible conquests to enable them to declare victory and vamoose. So the US has tagged the top jihadi groups to quell. It's no coincidence that all these groups are the proteges and brothers-in-arms of the Pak army. When the surge moves nearer to the Durand Line and beyond into Pakistan, the US will prod the Pak army to target these jihadis on the run.

If Gen Kayani doesn't comply, the US could intensify drone strikes inside Pak territory complemented by ground assault augmented by covert operations by Blackwater agents (Xe Services private military company), even withhold civil and military aid. If he does the US bidding grudgingly, the betrayed jihadi groups could retaliate by targeting his army and the Pak cities. Therefore, Gen Kayani could well find himself between a cannibal and an ogre! Yes, the Pak army could well stew in its own juice.

Once up the dung-filled creek, how can the general wade out of it? Provoke India with another major terrorist attack (or a series of strikes like the recent Pune German Bakery blast), compel India to threaten a military riposte, which can then be parroted as an excuse to remobilise his forces to the eastern border and thereafter duck taking on his jihadi proxies.

Just last month, the visitng US defence secretary Robert Gates had warned India of a major terrorist strike. Well, as we saw above, you don't have to be a clairvoyant or the defence secretary to forecast that.

The rise and rise of the Pakistani Taliban --- currently battling the Pak army -- who are umbilically coupled with their Afghan counterparts, should keep Gen Kayani looking over his shoulder every now and then.

Besides, the Pak army is its worst enemy, for it has unfailingly squandered all its tactical gains through strategic blunders, the prime example being its inability to consolidate its sway over Kabul despite the Taliban interregnum between 1988 and September 2001. Further, history is against it; the Pak army has never proved its capacity to win either war or peace.

Moreover, the bilateral equation with Kabul, the well-cultivated relationship with various ethnic denominations and some tribal chieftains, and the bounteous goodwill of Afghans should stand India in good stead.
Very interesting article...

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 20 Feb 2010 16:37

The number of threads on our barbaric neighbour is as long as the list of Tiger Woods' mistresses, so sorry if this has already been posted in some other thread such as TSP, PRGT etc..

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sandeep-g ... 68753.html

A sensible article...

This is because their decision to fight America is not based on rational economic calculations but on irrational ideological hatred. It is naïve to assume that they will switch sides for a few dollars. To the contrary, these bribes will be used to fund terrorist acts against us when conditions are more favourable to the Taliban

Unless the gun markets of Pakistan are shut down and the Taliban is choked of weapons and ammunition, victory cannot be attained. The first step has to be an expansion of the drone program to hit gun markets inside Pakistan.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 20 Feb 2010 17:49

Shutting down the gun markets seem quite un realistic. Its like a big part of the economy there. The people there taliban or non taliban carry guns, I dont think stopping the gun markets will help much.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 20 Feb 2010 20:57

shyamd wrote:Shutting down the gun markets seem quite un realistic. Its like a big part of the economy there. The people there taliban or non taliban carry guns, I dont think stopping the gun markets will help much.

Besides it has been there pre-Taliban/AQ days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (They are making an extra buck at best. But that is something the Americans should understand - supply-demand.)

It is the ISI that needs to be "shut down". It is the Pakistani Army that needs to be shut down.

The creators and the true sustainers of AQ and the Taliban need be shut down.

Huffington does not have that concept.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 21 Feb 2010 01:47

Marjah in the Hemland Province is a mere 20 Km from the Lashkar Gah Airfield, and ~ 35-38 Kms away from the huge camp bastion that the US has created in the middle of the desert.
Camp Bastion has several smallar camps and pickets spread all along that area, protecting that road, and these have been subject to regular taliban attacks.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 21 Feb 2010 08:44

Dutch Government Collapses Over Its Stance on Troops for Afghanistan

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/21/world ... dutch.html

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 22 Feb 2010 18:29

This was and is getting to be very predictable.

Pakistan captures another Taliban leader

Islamabad, Pakistan (CNN) -- Another senior Afghan Taliban leader has been arrested in Pakistan, two Pakistani intelligence officials told CNN on Monday.

Security forces arrested Mullah Abdul Kabir last week from a religious school in the district of Nowshera, 54 miles (88 km) northwest of Islamabad, the officials said.

Nowshera is located in Pakistan's North West Frontier Province.

The intelligence officials asked not to be named because they are not authorized to speak to the media.

Mullah Kabir served on the Taliban's Council of Ministers and governed the eastern zone of Afghanistan during the Taliban rule of the 1990s, said Imtiaz Gul, head of the Islamabad-based Center for Research and Security Studies.

The eastern zone included the provinces of Nangarhar, Nuristan, Kunar and Laghman.

Kabir is the fourth Afghan Taliban leader to be arrested by Pakistani security forces in the past several weeks.

Last week, U.S. and Pakistani officials confirmed the arrests of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Mullah Abdul Salam and Mullah Mir Muhammad.

"This arrest underscores a change in Pakistan's policy," Gul said. "This suggests their level of cooperation with the U.S. is much better than in the past."

Gul said the new level of cooperation could be in response to Washington's recent decision to tone down its criticism of the Pakistani military.

"The Pakistani military has finally convinced the U.S. military establishment not to publicly condemn it," said Gul. "When you criticize the Pakistani military publicly, it reduces room for maneuvering for Pakistan's institutions. It becomes difficult for the military to motivate the lower and middle rank officers. Finally, there is a much better equation between both military establishments."

In a statement to CNN, Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid denied that Mullah Kabir had been arrested.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Feb 2010 22:27

ramana wrote:Thanks, Suppiah. Very good summary. We need more such paraphrases to be posted here than the raw feed.

Suppiah wrote:Just spent time listening to the audio of this Rashid discussion at CFR...got interested because just read his book 'Descent into Chaos' primarily to kill a 4 hr flight....he made a lot of sense today..

There was an American guy in that but he was mostly talking crap so let us skip that...but he was strongly against any bargain with Taliban until Us gains position of strength..

Key highlights of Rashid's comments FWIW...not exact words 100% but should be fairly representative...

1. President Karzai and even the Taliban are tired of the manipulation faced under Pakistan..want to strike out on their own and want to have their own dialogue..it is a very very complex situation....
US military believes they cannot win this war..
2. Mullah B met with Karzai admin people in KSA. These are feelers, not negotiations..his arrest has tainted him now..
Pakistan should facilitate and help the mediation between Taliban & Afghan govt if it tries to play a role over the top, and IT WILL, it wants India eliminated, I think it will antagonise the whole region. India will NOT accept a central role for Pak, Iran, Russia, CA states will not accept. US may accept but not the REGION. We may then face another HUGE problem in the region...
3. Militiary regards Afghan Taliban as asset, not danger. They have carved out Kashmir and Afghan policy for themselves..in general foreign affairs
4. PPP remains only national party in the country others regional/ethnic even Nawaz Sharif is Punjabi party very little loyalty in other provinces..army cannot finish them off because what is left is far more fragmented...no one else could have stitched together this coalition not NS..no one wants the army back..all parties..America cannot like in past, deal with military just because it is convenient for them..
{Very important fact.}[/i]

5. Pakistan has done no such thing (dismantling terrorist infra), yet Indians have come back..water issue more critical than Kashmir...basically we need new agreement.
{Hope MMS doesnt give up water rights for charade of stopping terrorist acts.}

6. Taliban itself is watering down somewhat even on women's education. AT much different from PT - they are not fighting to put women back in burqa etc., but for patriotic reasons.[/b]{Pashtun civil war. Not a religious war unlike AlQ.} wrong perception in region Americans will leave in 18 months..AT are very tired. For them this is 30 year war...AT they are fed up with war..fed up of militirasation they have to undergo Pakistan..Arab, Iran manipulate them...they are fed up..they cannot take cities..families of top leadership living outside Afghan eminently hostage-able...to these manipulators..

7. What the Afghan Taliban see in Karzai...yes, he is corrupt, stooge etc. but cementation of Pashtun hegemony, non-Pashtun are common enemy.. non Pashtuns are arming, not in favor of dialogue..they will sit and talk as two Pashtuns how do we reestablish Pashtun rule...

8. Civilian military chasm getting wider. TSPA is more concerned about India - civilians are about their life, economy, fed up with India bogey, it does not mobilise people in any number, even in Punjab province, etc., vital US stays engaged with civilian govt..no matter how pathetic or ineffective.
{Actually if US cuts and runs the civilians have a good chance to reassert themselves. US role is to legitimize military rule depsite all the platitudes. The kabila is fed-up with the guards. Will take another 30-40 years (2 generations by baki paki stds) to get rid of military mind set.}

Please post the link so we can download the pod cast.

Thanks, ramana

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 23 Feb 2010 22:49

Looks like negotiations are about Taliban dropping their Al Qaeda allies and proving that they are willing to go through with it according KSA.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Feb 2010 23:24

An Indian POV.. From Tribune, 23 Feb., 2010

SOURCE

Afghan strategy of the US
India must protect its interests
by Rajendra Abhyankar

There are many commonalities between the tragic terror strike of 26/11 in Mumbai and the German Bakery attack in Pune, but, apart from scale, there are stark differences as well. Two are noteworthy. First, the Mumbai attack galvanised the people across the country to determinedly fight cross-border sponsored terror, but we did not notice a similar outburst of public sentiment this time. Second, after 26/11 there was a clear voice both from the people and the government that there would be no talks with Pakistan till it dismantled the terrorist infrastructure and brought its perpetrators to book, but this time public opinion is divided while the government has decided to break the link. It is going ahead with talks on February 25.

Does the change in public attitude demonstrate an apathy and resignation with the government’s inability to stem the terror waves and bring about any kind of pressure on Pakistan? The 87 per cent of those who participated in a polling on February 17 in Maharashtra held by a major TV channel were still against any talks with Pakistan; this could be the sentiment nation-wide. The government’s decision was presumably dictated not only by the commitment in the Sharm-al-Sheikh statement, although Pakistan is sure to raise Balochistan at the February 25 meeting. This is the crux of the matter and the way India has found itself out-manoeuvred.

India had to acquiesce in the London Conference’s decision to talk to and re-integrate the so-called “good” Taliban notwithstanding our experience when they were last in power. Obviously, India’s reiteration of its position that there was no good and bad Taliban had no effect on the US and NATO. It was championed by none other than President Karzai whom we have supported since he took office. India was also excluded, at Pakistan’s behest, from the preliminary Istanbul conference of Afghanistan’s neighbours which charted the future political course for Afghanistan. Once again Pakistan has become the fulcrum for the US strategy in Afghanistan and in Pakistan itself.

Senator John Kerry, the powerful Chair of US Foreign Relations Committee, on his February 16 New Delhi visit, made no bones that the resumption of dialogue between India and Pakistan was critical to the overall US strategy in Pakistan and Afghanistan. He has even given up the Af-Pak nomenclature. We can expect to see all US efforts geared towards securing Pakistan’s compliance and cooperation in its on-going military operation in Afghanistan’s Helmand province, the nerve-centre of the Taliban. Its border with Pakistan makes such cooperation indispensable to the US strategy. This is where India comes in.

The 30,000 troop surge ordered by President Obama did not prevent the Afghan Taliban from laying siege to parts of Kabul, exposing the vulnerability of the government and ineffectiveness of the military operation to stem the Taliban tide. With the time-line being dictated by the forthcoming US state elections and the withdrawal date in early 2011 announced by President Obama, the US Administration saw no alternative to scaling down the goal of securing a military victory to a limited one of getting the “amenable” or “purchasable” Taliban inside an Afghan government. Considerable funds have been allocated at the London conference for this purpose.

Given the strong and negative Taliban reaction to the new US strategy, it was also realised that the Taliban would have to be softened to secure their compliance. This is what the major on-going military operation in Marjah intended to achieve. For the operation to succeed, Pakistan’s cooperation in sealing its border with Helmand becomes crucial. The US cannot afford a repeat of General Musharraf’s action in withdrawing his troops allowing for Al-Qaeda and the Taliban to escape the US Tora Bora operation in the early days of the Afghan war. It still remains uncertain whether the Marjah operation will bring the Taliban to the table, and if so, the price that would have to be paid. Pakistan’s cooperation and, more importantly, India’s presumed role in making it possible now dictate US policy.

It was not long ago when the US and its allies were singing India’s praises for the way in which we had committed large resources to successfully building up Afghanistan. The change of US strategy on dealing with the Afghan Taliban puts pressure on India and its role in Afghanistan:

Accepting Pakistan’s contention that it needs a lessening of tensions on its eastern border (with India) for it to effectively seal its border with Helmand (Afghanistan) it has put us under pressure to resume the India-Pakistan dialogue regardless of repeated terror attacks in locations in India. On February 5 in Muzaffarabad the LeT had already mentioned Kanpur and New Delhi apart from Pune. And Ilyas Kashmiri has openly threatened attacks at the World Hockey Games and the Commonwealth Games later in the year.

By accepting that sections of the Afghan Taliban can be brought into the government, it opens the possibility for an eventual Taliban takeover which has always been an anathema, given its implacable hostility to India. The Kandahar IA hijack case cannot be forgotten so easily.

By making Pakistan again the fulcrum of this strategy, ignoring that it is the epi-centre of terror world-wide and committing billions of dollars to beefing up Pakistan’s military capacity, it provides the unquestioned possibility for that country to guard its strategic interests in Afghanistan and launch proxy attacks on India’s interests there, and on India itself.

It is time we faced up to the challenge of making our cooperation with the US in the successful outcome of its strategy count. As its global strategic partner, India must negotiate the “deliverables” if it decides to go ahead with the India-Pakistan dialogue in the present circumstances. Recognising and bargaining with the US on our core interests is unavoidable now.

We need our interests in Afghanistan safeguarded, Pakistan to hand over the perpetrators of the Mumbai and Pune attacks and disband the terror groups it nurtures, and secure the LoC and the international boundary and get US support for our permanent membership of the UN Security Council. That is what a strategic partnership means and as an emerging global player, it behoves us to put our cards on the table and not hedge as is our wont. Furthermore, there is an equal need to inform the Indian public by holding an all-party conference of the political formations represented in Parliament. India needs to speak with one voice now on.

The writer, a former diplomat, is Chairman, Kunzru Centre for Defence Studies and Research, Pune.

He was also Consul General in SF.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 24 Feb 2010 01:05

Aid to Pakis 2002-2009: http://media.mcclatchydc.com/smedia/200 ... ate.91.jpg

pgbhat · Post by **pgbhat** » 24 Feb 2010 09:37

The Afghan Taliban's top leaders ---- LWJ

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 24 Feb 2010 20:25

x post:

Folks, this weeks IOL issue:

It was KSA that convinced ISI boys to arrest Mullah Biradar. IOL states that TSP needs a good relationship with Talebs if it wants to wield influence in Afghanistan. ISI told western intel, that it wants a part in negotiations. It was the efforts of Prince Muqrin (KSA GID chief) who has been shuttling between Riyadh and Islamabad. ISI were forced to listen to him because of the amount of funds they are receiving from KSA.

Looks like ISI asked KSA to ensure India to ease tensions with TSP and allow TSP to focus on launching military ops against taleban. Hence the visit to India by Saud al Faisal (foreign min KSA).

ISI (Pasha) does not want to work with ANY western intel service especially the CIA.

Further IOL states:
The ISI is carrying out Baradar’s interrogation alone, without the participation of its Western counterparts, to whom it is passing on the information it gathers. American requests for US interrogators to participate in the questioning of Baradar, and for the Taliban leader to be transferred in Afghanistan to the U.S.-run Bagram prison, near Kabul, have so far fallen on deaf ears.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 24 Feb 2010 21:25

Shyamd, Why Barader? was he striking a deal with Karzai Pashtuns? Recall he is a Popalzai and hence one of their own.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 25 Feb 2010 03:39

Ramanaji, is that question still relevant. After the supposed arrest of many others?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Feb 2010 04:43

Yes for it was the first and then started the others. So what caused them to go after him?

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 25 Feb 2010 06:04

what is IOL? TIA.

That is a very old trick. What did anyone achieve if that report is true? All these Mullahs will live like kings, stay as guests for a few months and then back to square zero.

the problem is no longer Pakistan, it is ISI specifically and those that are funding them.

So, .................. KSA is willing to carve out a regional-world - one that consists of India and Pakistan with A;stan as their backyard, with on one hand India dealing with the rest of the civilized world and on another the barbarians.

I think KSA is digging a hole for itself. They, like the CIA/US, fund the ISI, which controls the Taliban, who are the enforcers of the law for the ISI.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 25 Feb 2010 21:21

NRao, IOL is Intelligence Online - a french newsletter on politics, defence etc.

Ramanaji, I am guessing its most likely because of the negotiations, he was clearly the link man and met with Karzai officials, UN officials in Dubai etc. So the idea was to stop the man incharge of talks and quietly go after the others. Barader was definetly in talks with Prince Muqrin.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Feb 2010 21:54

pgbhat wrote:The Afghan Taliban's top leaders ---- LWJ

Can someone put this in flow chart format?

Shyamd,Thanks.
Confirms the game that TSP has been playing. And secondarily confirms MMS isnt just wringing hands!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Feb 2010 03:32

Couple of reports from Nightwatch.

Pakistan-Afghanistan: Security. Pakistani officials said they have arrested seven of the 15 members of the Quetta Shura, the Afghan Taliban's senior leadership council, the Christian Science Monitor reported today. Officials said that in addition to the previously reported arrests of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Maulavi Abdul Kabir and Mullah Muhammad Younis, arrests were made of Mullah Abdul Qayoum Zakir, who oversees the movement’s military affairs, Mullah Muhammad Hassan, Mullah Ahmed Jan Akhunzada and Mullah Abdul Raouf. {Total seven out of Fifteen}

If accurate the Pakistan-based leadership of the Afghan Taliban movement has been effectively decapitated. The remainder must be relocating daily to prevent capture. That reinforces the hypothesis that Pakistan has decided to reassert and protect its national security interest in Afghanistan by way of influencing power sharing negotiations.

Pakistan-Afghanistan: Afghanistan’s Pajhwok news agency reported today that Pakistani officials have assured they would hand over the seized Taliban leaders, including Taliban deputy Mullah Berader, to the Afghan government after the latter demanded their custody.

Mullah Abdol Ghani Beradar, deputy to Taliban leader Mullah Muhammad Omar, and Mullah Abdossalam were arrested by security forces from Karachi and Faisalabad in Pakistan. An official of the Interior Ministry in Pakistan, who did not want to be named, told Pajhwok Afghan News that Afghan Interior Minister Mohammad Hanif Atmar visited Pakistan and discussed the issue with his Pakistani counterpart.

He said Atmar demanded the Pakistani officials hand over the arrested Taliban leaders to the Afghan government. He said the Pakistani authorities had assured they would soon transfer the detainees into the custody of Afghan authorities, after Pakistan completes its interrogations.

Atmar is visiting Pakistan to attend a tripartite meeting among officials from Pakistan, Afghanistan and the United States. The US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Director Robert Muller is also visiting Pakistan.

When contacted for comments, a spokesman for the Interior Ministry Zmaray Bashari said it would be premature to mention that the arrested Taliban leaders would be handed over to Afghanistan in the near future.

Comment: Discussions today with Brilliant and Knowledgeable Readers theorized that if Pakistan hands Berader to the Afghans that would suggest a trade for value. Pakistan would expect to be consulted, if not included, in power sharing talks. Berader, in this scenario, is acting as the emissary of Mullah Omar, but his transfer to Afghan custody is the perfect cover story for his acting as the go-between, with Pakistani assistance, to be sure.

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 26 Feb 2010 05:32

Played for fools

Airavat · Post by **Airavat** » 26 Feb 2010 06:34

US Af-Pak script

After persuading the Indians to agree to resume talks with Islamabad, the US not only launched the Marjah offensive, but also got Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to assist in the “capture” of several Afghan Taliban leaders. They include Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Afghan Taliban’s alleged operations chief; Mullah Abdul Kabir, a deputy prime minister in the former Taliban regime; Mullah Abdul Salam, an alleged Taliban shadow governor for Afghanistan’s Kunduz province; and Mullah Mohammad of Baghlan province. The stage-managed arrests of these mullahs from Pakistani cities, including Karachi and Nowshera, showed that Afghan Taliban leaders are operating from urban centres in the heartland of Pakistan, not from mountain caves along the Af-Pak frontier.

India has not only dovetailed its Pakistan policy to America’s Af-Pak strategy, but also outsourced it to Washington. Instead of applying direct leverage against Pakistan, India is depending on the US to lean on Islamabad. India has been loath to use economic and security levers against Pakistan. As US ex-senator, Larry Pressler, has warned, “When the US leaves Afghanistan, India will have a Pakistan ‘on steroids’ next door and a Taliban state to deal with in Afghanistan.”

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Feb 2010 08:16

Rajan Menon of Leigh Uty was on worldfocus TV and said TSP behavior was influenced by its desire to please US to keep aid going, to keep links with Taliban in case they prevail, have relevance at talks to accommodate moderate Taliban. And above all fear US-India alignment

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 26 Feb 2010 11:19

I would think the Indo-US "alignment" has more to do with with economics than anything else. And that is something Pakistan cannot stop - since it is a force unto itself. If true it will force a few issues, like the dove-tailing of regional issues and leaning on the US to accomplish a few things. After all the use of predators and killing Taliban helps India to some extent too. Just that at some point in time the likes of LeT will also need to be included in the strikes.

I am more concerned about Hamid Gul passing away. India needs such yahoos to keep the US on track - a reality check.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Feb 2010 20:40

I dont think the Pakis make that distinction. Their ideology links everything in one pot. No nuanced compartmentalization of a modern mind.