Afghanistan News & Discussion

[eklavya]

Prospects for Baloch independence are about the same as the prospects for Tibet independence i.e. nil. East Pakistan /Bangladesh in 1971 was a very different situation: the Pak Army / PAF based there was virtually isolate / cut-off and could only be supplied or reinforced with great difficulty. We should never put our forces in a similar situation.

[brihaspati]

We had discussed many of these hypothetical scenarios in the heady aftermath of the Mumbai attacks. It is obviously a long shot - and many more elements of the strategic frameowrk needs to be in place before the Balochs can declare independence effectively (in a sustainable way). But their declaring independence which also can be internationally and militarily sustained solves the supply problems immediatley and also significantly alters the situation against the Talebs and Pakjabis.

Aren't we all dreaming anyway? After all aren't we entering a new age of peace and prosperity given all the mainstay of Islamist violence and Paki perfidy - the USA, POGWI, KSA, Turkey - all are becoming lovey-dovey with India! We may not even need to think of AFPAK any more - they are all going to be irelevant. Jai ho!

[shyamd]

Victory eludes key US-led operation in S. Afghanistan

DEBKAfile Special Report March 1, 2010, 9:36 PM (GMT+02:00)

More than two weeks into Operation Moshtarak (Together), the commanders of 15,000 US Marines, British and Afghan soldiers claim the first stage of their mission to wrest Marjah in the south Afghan province of Helmand from the Taliban has been accomplished and the Obama administration's new policy for Afghanistan has successfully passed its first test.
British general Sir David Richards acclaimed this good run a turning point in the war on Taliban after two years during which the insurgents held the upper hand in the war. US commanders announced the international force was already looking at its next operation, the conquest of the important big town of Kandahar City.

[putnanja]

Centre mulls more Afghan security

The Centre is considering plans to deploy more Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) personnel in Afghanistan, a move that may see embassy officials, aid agencies and private-sector employees there get personal security.
...
A senior home ministry official said it was now certain that more ITBP personnel would be deployed. “Our aid and reconstruction activities in Afghanistan will continue. A team of Indian officials was in Kabul a few months back to assess the situation. Their assessment, along with that of the current team (sent after the terrorist strike on Friday), will help us in formulating a new security plan,” said the official.
...

[Pranav]

But after the additional arrests in Pakistan of two northern Afghanistan Taliban "shadow" governors, Mullah Abdul Salam of Kunduz and Mullah Mir Mohammad, the Pentagon rejected the conspiracy theories circulating in regard to Pakistan.

Indeed, US spokesman for the Department of Defense Geoff Morell pronounced, "We are enormously heartened by the fact that the Pakistani government ... increasingly recognize the threat within their midst and are doing something about it."

http://atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/LC03Df03.html

What does this mean?

It is clear that the Quetta Shura was trying to reconcile with Karzai. That is against the interests of TSP ... and now the Amreekis are also putting their weight behind the TSP.

For all the bitching between the US and the TSP, it seems that US elites do not want reconciliation that is not on TSP's terms? Or is it that they are humoring TSP, keeping up appearances?

[Malayappan]

Cross Posting - A good one! Must read!
Down the AfPak Rabbit Hole from FP
We have discussed here the Ghilzai - Popalzai dimension

What has happened is, in fact, a purge by Taliban hard-liners of men perceived to be insufficiently reliable, either ethnically or politically, or both. It is well-known that there had been a schism in the Quetta Shura for months, with hard-liner and former Gitmo prisoner Mullah Zakir (aka Abdullah Ghulam Rasoul) coming out on top over Mullah Baradar

The core Ghilzai leadership of the Taliban had long suspected Baradar of being too willing to negotiate and too partial to his kinsmen in making field appointments. Indeed, this suspicion led to the creation of the Quetta Shura's Accountability Council in late 2009, whose job apparently included removing many of Baradar's excessively Durrani and Karlani appointments.

This explains why when Mullah Zakir, the hard-line military chief of the Quetta Shura along with Baradar, was detained near Peshawar two weeks after Baradar was detained, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) - Pakistan's powerful military spy service -- released him immediately. Meanwhile, all of the other lesser figures currently in detention (including Abdul Kabir, aka Mullah Abdul Kahir Osmani, the RC East regional commander; Mullah Abdul Rauf Aliza, an Alizai Durrani, former Gitmo prisoner, and Taliban military chief for northern Afghanistan; and Mullah Ahmed Jan Akhundzada, former shadow governor of Uruzgan province and Ishaqzai Durrani) are known moderates and allies of Baradar.

If the Quetta Shura is not upset, then Kayani's hand is strong. There is no real threat to him. US will not be able to do anything, the ambitious piece of KS in IE notwithstanding! I feel like sticking my neck out and make the statement - 'Until Pathan anger boils over and gets directed at pakistan state, Kayani and his folks are safe.' Funds and arms from US will be a bonus (= certainty), gains in Afghanistan a bonus bonus (= possibility), and any gains from India through talks or terrorist action will be a lottery (= jackpot)!

[Sanku]

I feel like sticking my neck out and make the statement - 'Until Pathan anger boils over and gets directed at pakistan state, Kayani and his folks are safe.' Funds and arms from US will be a bonus (= certainty), gains in Afghanistan a bonus bonus (= possibility), and any gains from India through talks or terrorist action will be a lottery (= jackpot)!

Indeed and too add GoI rolling over and letting Pakistan achieve all its goals while it does pappi jhappi -- priceless.

[Malayappan]

'Every Man for Himself': Afghan Militias Take on Taliban Portend of things to come? Also has a map showing ethnicity across the country.

[Malayappan]

We can start checking on the markers for Marja! The FP piece I posted discusses some issues. Though there are not that many hard facts, the underlying tone is definitely pessimistic. Here is another one. Some more facts, but overall seems to be at least not positive (if not negative). Is anyone tracking the military aspects, there is far too much non-military analysis so far!
The Next Battles for Marja from NYT
Too much of oversimplication and Holbrookism?

[Malayappan]

Another totally different perspective. Sume nuggets in there worth noting -
Marja and the drug war

it (the Helmand Valley Project of the 1960s) was a failure in terms of going growing cotton, because all that irrigation system was diverted to poppy growing, because they could grow it there. That was, you know, the beginning of that. But the poppy was being grown there, but not at this level. So now, you know, it produces 42 percent of all the poppy crop in Afghanistan, which is big percentage. Now, Helmand has, you know, a big population—almost 25 percent population consists of a Pashtun tribe which is called Alizais. So Alizai tribe is present in Helmand; they are also in Kandahar; they are in Balochistan—in Pakistani and in Iranian Balochistan as well.

Accoording to this report, drugs make up the the key factor in this battle. That will mean therte can be no alignment between NATO and Local goals. Hypothesis - 1) No permanent peace is possible in the short term, if poppy cultivation is eradicated, 2) NATO or the Western forces do not have the full means (ie provide alternative avenues of earning) to eradicate poppy cultivation on a permanent basis. A quagmire in the making!

[arun]

X Posted.

Death that visited Indian’s in Kabul on Feb 26th now visits Pakistani construction workers in Kandahar:

Gunmen kill 7 Pakistanis in Afghanistan

Thu, 04 Mar 2010 08:14:53 GMT

Unknown armed men have killed seven Pakistani workers and wounded another in Afghanistan's southern city of Kandahar, according to police.

A police official told Press TV that the attack occurred early Thursday.

Two gunmen on a motorcycle opened fire on a group of Pakistani construction workers waiting for transport.

No group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack.

Attacks on foreign civilians in Afghanistan have increased over the past year.

Last week, the Taliban targeted two guest houses used by Indians and a shopping center frequented by foreigners in central Kabul.

Nine Indians were killed as well as an Italian diplomat and a French film maker. ………………….

Press TV, Iran

[brihaspati]

Drugs need not be a spanner in the works. The whole Helmand area is a conduit for the AFPAK heroin trade, that basically connects CAR and Turkey as the gateway into EU for heroin. Financial networks connect to Turkey, Dubai.

The drugs trade and profits can provide two crucial resources for western and allied Islamist countrys' covert operations against their startegic enemies. The first is that the illegal drugs profits remain outside the budget of national govs which can be used to support covert ops. Second, in return for protection of the drugs networks, governments or political forces behind the govs, or their security agencies can force the foot soldiers in the trade to act against targets.

It is the eternal dilemma for crime-fighter versus crime conflicts - they always have some elements of collaboration and compromise. Each needs the other.

In the caseof the AFG heroin triangle, the stragetic interests' convergence between Islamist or Jihadi targets in Asia and US+UK interests in Asia will preserve the AFG heroin trade.

As for military situation, the scene was preset long ago. Those who control the AFG countryside controls eventually the government. To neutralize this trend, you need increasing presecne of external occupation forces. And I think both sides here understand this. They are fighting to save faces. So the Talebs were urged to "melt away" from the cities by the Brits before the start of the operations. The plan is clearly to show that the cities - the media visible centres of officialdom are clear of the Talebs. So thats atisfies political necessities back at home. Then there is a good excuse to wind back formal occupation forces although covert presence with smaller special force continue.

In the past Afghan cities dominated the countryside, because the trade routes passed through them and they had the resources to dominate the countryside. But now, the entire country is a free-trade zone in drugs, slaves, arms and other contraband - with channels that do not need to go through the cities. So the countryside has the economic resources to bypass the cities.

The Talebs will be brought back to power by active agreement from the current "expeditioners". The military situation is a chimera. It is a well planned drama that is more politics than military action.

[Varoon Shekhar]

http://news.outlookindia.com/item.aspx?675755

3rd army Major dies from Kabul attack. And what is India doing about this?

[Sanku]

http://news.outlookindia.com/item.aspx?675755

3rd army Major dies from Kabul attack. And what is India doing about this?

Walking the extra mile, on the green mile, of Indian interests.

[satya]

An AfPak star over Central Asia

United States AfPak special representative Richard Holbrooke enjoys a fabulous reputation, no matter the current prospects of the Afghan war. The Eurasian space knew him as a potential Nobel winner who evicted Russia from the Balkans. The world at large expects him to take over if and when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton steps down to enter the US presidential election ring in 2012. Holbrooke's tours abroad inevitably get noticed.

His maiden tour of Central Asia and the Caucasus last week was no exception. A State Department spokesman drew attention to it as a significant happening in US regional policy. The tour turned out to be somewhat more than symbolic; it wasn't altogether bereft of result.

The result actually came at the end of Holbrooke's tour. His halt in Tbilisi came as a morale booster for Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili. In comparison, his tour of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan merely underscored that diplomacy is a seamless affair and that Holbrooke is at liberty to exceed his hitherto narrowly focused AfPak brief.

Saakashvili has been low on morale following the demise of the Orange revolution in Ukraine, US President Barack Obama's manifest disinterest in color revolutionaries and the growing unease in the West over the Georgian leader's governance style, marked by cronyism, corruption and authoritarianism. To be sure, Holbrooke's unannounced visit perked him up.

Saakashvili summarily dropped any tentative ideas apropos some sort of "normalization" with Moscow, which the Europeans have been counseling him to undertake. He told a nationwide audience that Georgia, which survived the "despotic rule of Persian emperor Shah Abbas in the 16th century, would also endure [Russian Prime Minister] Vladimir Putin - ... Georgia will never kneel down before its enemies".

Holbrooke's visit convinced Saakashvili that despite the rhetoric of a "reset" of US-Russia ties, the Obama administration hasn't quite abandoned the strategic vision of Georgia's North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) membership.

Conceivably, Georgia falls within Holbrooke's diplomatic turf. The country provides a 600-strong military contingent for fighting the 25,000-strong Taliban militia, but it is not the numbers that count. Holbrooke said the Georgian contingent was destined to play a major role in the world's victory over terrorism. Saakashvili responded that not only the fate of the world but of Georgia's too depended on the success of the NATO mission.

Holbrooke insisted his visit "had nothing to do with Georgian-Russian relations", but the reality is that Washington hopes to incorporate Georgia as a vital link in the proposed NATO supply chain leading to Afghanistan from Europe, which will bypass Russian territory. Clearly, NATO is gearing up to cross over from the Balkans, across the Black Sea, to the Caucasus in an historic journey that will take it to Central Asia via Afghanistan.

Clinton also made it clear in her hard-hitting speech at a NATO strategic concept seminar organized by the Atlantic Council in Washington last Tuesday that "there can be no question that NATO will continue to keep its doors open to new members ... We are already working with many of these nations in Afghanistan. And we must find ways to build on these efforts ... We have already determined the need for a NATO that can operate at strategic distance. We need to cultivate strategic relationships in support of that goal."

Later, the US's permanent representative to NATO, ambassador Ivo Daalder, amplified: "We're not going to change the way we do business. We believe that an enlargement of the alliance is a stabilizing factor. We believe that NATO's door must remain open to new members. We believe that no country [read Russia] can have a veto over which other sovereign country can or cannot join an alliance. That reality will remain."

Taliban pose no threat
Equally, Holbrooke's mission to the Central Asian capitals was an opening gambit. He got mixed results, which was only to be expected since the Central Asians are no more babes in the woods of international diplomacy. There are longstanding problems between the Central Asian states, but the region doesn't present a geopolitical vacuum.

Holbrooke thumb-sketched a futuristic security scenario for the region in the nature of an al-Qaeda threat. As he put it, "I think the real threat in this region is less from the Taliban than from al-Qaeda, which wants to train international terrorists." He said this in Dushanbe after meeting with Tajik President Emomali Rahmon.

On the one hand, Holbrooke gently eased Central Asian concerns regarding the US's expected reconciliation with the Taliban. At the same time, he calmed the Central Asian mind regarding the Taliban's extremist ideology.

This is not the first time that Central Asian leaders have heard from a visiting US official a projection of the Taliban as a benign movement. Holbrooke echoed what US diplomats almost routinely propagated in the 1996-97 period as the Taliban came to power in Kabul. (Taliban as US pawns )

Holbrooke added, "For ethnic and geographic and strategic reasons, Tajikistan is the country of immense importance if one wants to have a peaceful outcome in Afghanistan." These are profound remarks. It is the sort of description that fits only one other country in Afghanistan's neighborhood - Pakistan. Dushanbe has a complex relationship with Afghan Tajiks. The ethnic Tajik population in Afghanistan is numerically bigger than Tajikistan's, but it has lacked leadership since the assassination by al-Qaeda of Ahmad Shah Massoud in 2001. At any rate, Tajik nationalism is a can of worms - almost as much as Pashtun nationalism.

Holbrooke also revealed that he "talked [with Rahmon] especially about energy and water and about Tajikistan's capabilities to help deal with the water crisis in other parts of the region, especially Pakistan and India." This is an extremely controversial subject that concerns many regional powers, where Tajik and Uzbek interests, in fact, collide. How the US will eventually "balance" Tashkent and Dushanbe will bear watching.

No doubt, Washington sees Tashkent as the prize catch of its Central Asian diplomacy in the recent past. But Uzbek language is highly nuanced and according to state media, "The leader of our nation ... expressed Uzbekistan's firm determination to further develop US-Uzbek relations in a constructive way in light of efforts to bring lasting peace and stability to Afghanistan." Holbrooke was quoted as responding that he, too, wanted to "strengthen cooperation with Uzbekistan over security". The American Embassy refused to confirm or deny reports on whether he brought up the reopening of an air base in Uzbekistan from where the US was evicted half a decade ago.

In sum, Holbrooke heard many vague promises of support, but they fell short of any visible outcome. There were missteps too. His trip to Turkmenistan was canceled at the last minute due to "scheduling conflicts". A joint press briefing with Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev in Bishkek was abruptly canceled without explanation. His public appearance in Dushanbe was unnaturally terse and he wasn't even open to questions and answers.

There was indeed a noticeable lack of concrete results. On the other hand, Holbrooke was merely wetting his toes in an enigmatic region that puzzles even brilliant minds. What cannot be overlooked is that Holbrooke decided to take a look at the region at all. The summit meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which is due to be held in June in Tashkent, can be expected to have "maintenance of peace and stability in Afghanistan" as a key agenda item.

Strictly speaking, Central Asia is not within the purview of Holbrooke's AfPak brief. As far as the logistics of the Afghan war are concerned, US Central Command chief General David Petraeus regularly visits Central Asian capitals. Conceivably, Washington would like to measure how the regional powers - especially Russia, Iran and China - react to Holbrooke's appearance in Central Asia at a time when the Afghan war appears set to spill over into the region.

English Romantic poet Percy Bysshe Shelley wrote, "If Winter comes, can Spring be far behind?" If Holbrooke comes, can he be far behind in returning?

[Prem]

Ansari said Afghan officials had determined that one of the bombers involved in the Friday attack yelled: “Where is the Indian director”, as he stormed into one of the hotels. The news report said others had also sought out the Indians. “This kind of information, where the Indians are, is not the ability of the Afghan Taliban to know,” Mr Ansari said. However, the report said, American intelligence officials in Kabul believe that the attack was carried out by the Haqqani network, a Pakistan-based Afghan militant group. But, the paper said, that Indian officials suspect that the two groups worked together to stage the raid. According to counter-terror experts here, LeT is now more than a mere Pakistani terror outfit. It has strong connections with Al Qaeda and globally on par with it. The paper said that the involvement of LeT would have significant implications as it would undermine the fragile peace efforts between the two countries.
The Pakistani army officer said the members of LeT were training with Haqqani network in North Waziristan and that language problems force these recruits to operate alongside Afghan militants inside Afghanistan

Evidence of Laskar hand, not Taliban
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 639132.cms

[krithivas]

I would like to think and want for India to retaliate with disproportionate vengeance (and that GHQ is flattened).

But I'm suspecting that Indian PM Manmohan will now walk for 1.237 miles to make peace with TSP.

http://news.outlookindia.com/item.aspx?675755

3rd army Major dies from Kabul attack. And what is India doing about this?

[abhishek_sharma]

Kanwal Sibal says that we cannot count on Karzai as before.

http://epaper.hindustantimes.com/Articl ... 006&mode=1

[Malayappan]

Pak agencies nab key Afghan Taliban leader
What I note in this piece is

Reports from Afghanistan said Agha is the son-in-law of Mullah Omar. Agha had introduced himself to investigators as Tayyeb Popalzai

Some questions, some conjectures -

Is it kosher for a Ghilzai to have Popalzai as surname, even if it is to cheat? And if the first sentence is true, can a Ghilzai have a Popalzai son in law?
If Agha is indeed arrested, and he is a Popalzai, another piece would have fallen in place. If so will it be prudent to conclude that pakistan has placed its bets firmly on Ghilzais, even if at the cost of Popalzais?
The second question here is the US attitude to this dimension. Can we conclude that the US goes with pakistan's bet - given the pressures on Karzai, evident bonhomie between US and paki army etc? On this count Kandahar Taliban are mostly Popalzais? If so, they should expect a big squeeze post Marja.
If this proceeds as per US and paki plans, Karzai will be toppled (or even worse), and a Haqqani nominated warlord will be crowned as the moderate Taliban. US can be expected to place him in Kabul with paki army 'advisors' overt or covert presence.
Other elements like Tajiks-Uzbegs-Hazaras as well as Popalzais will get a grand squeeze from US - media offensive (warlordism, corruption etc), cajoling and bribing, targeted assassinations etc to fall in line.
India should announce quietly and clearly that it has legitimate historical and cultural interests in Afghanistan, and it owes to play its role to the people of Afghanistan, and it will defend its interests and fulfill its responsibilities despite any other country's priorities. And kick off the diplomatic piece with Putin's visit - hopefully there will be some clear indications in their joint statement.

[Philip]

A devastating indictment of Gordon Brown and civil servants by the former head of Britain's SAS and SBS,saying that they fought "even without Vietnam era eqpt."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstop ... -head.html

EXcerpts:

In a withering assessment of the “doomed” state of the military, the recently retired Lt Gen Sir Graeme Lamb said that the SAS had been denied even Vietnam-era equipment that could have saved lives.

Resources remained insufficient to fight current and future conflicts, with much of the Army’s equipment “either broken or lacking”, he warned.

General Lord Gurthrie of Craigiebank, who was chief of the defence staff from 1997 to 2001, also said soldiers died in Afghanistan because Gordon Brown starved the Army of funding when he was Chancellor.

“Not fully funding the Army in the way they had asked ... undoubtedly cost the lives of soldiers. He should be asked why he was so unsympathetic towards defence and so sympathetic to other departments,” he told The Times.

The Armed Forces were “pretty much doomed on our current course and thinking” and would become the “dumpster of irrelevancy” unless they changed direction radically and gained the right equipment to fight today’s wars, he said. The focus on investing in ships, aircraft and tanks had endangered lives because it had left forces such as the SAS inadequately equipped with basic equipment, he claimed.

He warned that the Armed Forces were “clearly in decline” and were increasingly seen as “irrelevant” by the public and politicians.

This was an example of a military that could do nothing more than “band-aid prevention”, said Sir Graeme.

The Ministry of Defence was buying equipment “we probably do not need” and unless it “mothball, cancel or break our procurement overdraft or sit down and reshape the force we so desperately need, we are unlikely to do anything”, he warned.

[A_Gupta]

Reported Taliban infighting in Northern Afghanistan
Mother-lode

From a link there, Associated Press

While Karzai and McChrystal were in the south, fighting raged for a second day in northeastern Afghanistan.

Gunbattles between the Taliban and another Islamist faction left at least 50 fighters dead in Baghlan province as militants apparently fought over control of several villages where the government has almost no presence, officials said Sunday..

Further, Pak. News

[rohitvats]

.......................<SNIP> This was an example of a military that could do nothing more than “band-aid prevention”, said Sir Graeme. ...........<SNIP>

Considering the strength of their Army, the defining component in any CI Ops, it is surprising that they should even think that they can affect change....they hardly have any infantry worth the name to take on CI Style ops...which we know better thah anyon else....is extremely manpower intensive....all the fancy toys notwithstanding......talk of "great power hangover"...

Added later: This is the sum total of British Army:

British Army statistics
Personnel (Regular Army) - 114,260 (of which 101,190 are trained [12]
Personnel (Territorial Army) - 35,500
Main Battle Tanks - 446 Challenger 2
Light Tanks - 325 FV107 Scimitar
Infantry fighting vehicles - 789 Warrior. 305 Tempest MPV
APCs and CVR(T)s - 3,230–4,000+
Land Rover Wolf - 15,000
Pinzgauer - 2,000
Utility Trucks - 2,300
Artillery pieces and mortars - 2,896 (SP Arty is only some ~200 guns)
Air Defence - 337
Aircraft - 300+

[Muppalla]

Afghanistan - What India should expect and what it should do

• Indian primary interest is to prevent Pakistan from using Afghanistan as a base for terrorist activity in India.
• The other interest is to seek access to Central Asia through Afghanistan and Iran, since Pakistan will not oblige.
• It would be self defeating to withdraw from Afghanistan at this juncture after the attack in Kabul because this is what the Pakistanis want India to do. India must therefore continue with its present policy of providing infrastructure and financial assistance to the Karzai government something which has earned India tremendous goodwill in that country.
• It is hoped that by staying on and continuing this assistance under greater safety guarantees from the Afghan government could help strengthen Karzai’s hands.
• India needs to develop contacts/strengthen them as the case maybe with all sections in Afghanistan, with different power centres and ethnic groups, including the Pushtun and the Taliban too.
• Russia, China, the Central Asian Republics and Iran are all extremely wary of the spread of Wahhabi Islam and its destabilising consequences for their region and their own countries. These are the other interested regional powers with whom India must seek common ground to address common problems.

[CRamS]

Brown Sahib Fareed Zakariah on CNN now, loyally repeating the official line pounding on Hamid Karzai. And his line of questioning on TSP was equally of the "embedded reporter" type. Not a word about LeT in all the ffusive praise of TSP taking on "terrorists". And to topi it all, he had some Paki mullah condemning terror and why Islam is religion of peace. The "embedded reporter" brown Sahib goes on to add that this version of "moderate Islam" has followesr only in TSP and it remains to be seen if it spreads to the rest of the Muslim world .

Either TSP has hoodwinked Unkil that even Unkil does not know he is being hoodwinked, or there is this massive conspiracy played right in front of our eyes, where TSP terror is precisely fine-tuned and focused on India alone.

[Airavat]

Hekmatyar fights Taliban

The two forces, which are normally allied against Afghan and Coalition forces, battled over control of the region and the ability to collect taxes there. Twenty-five fighters were reported killed in the first day of the fighting, which ultimately ended on Sunday.

HIG (Gulbuddin faction of Hezb-i-Islami) broke away from Hezb-i-Islami, which joined the Afghan government. HIG is a radical Islamist group that is loosely aligned with al Qaeda and the Taliban. It is led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, who is closely tied to Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency.

[brihaspati]

The allies could be preparing to stake as much territory and manpower under their respective control to bargain in the eventual power-sharing. Such conflicts can only increase as the timeline for withdrawal of the US+UK forces comes into sight.

[Varoon Shekhar]

http://outlookindia.com/article.aspx?264615

An Indian in Kabul

I woke up on Friday morning around 6.40 to a loud noise, thinking we were having another earthquake. That illusion dissolved within seconds when I heard the second blast and then gunfire. Within minutes, after a call from a colleague, the four of us living in our staff compound got together. We could see the smoke from the blast and hear continuous firing for more than two hours after that. Details of what was happening kept coming in along with rumours. The one thing we were sure of in the initial hour was that it was an attack in the area of Shar-e-Naw -- the city centre. All through the day, I was in touch with friends at the Indian embassy and others, and every call added another horror. It was too close to home this time around.

I am a development professional who has been living in Afghanistan now for nearly two years. This is not the first time I have lost friends or colleagues to an attack of this nature, nor would it be the last. The first big explosion was a few months after I came here -- the attack on the Indian Embassy in July 2008. Still new to the country, my initial thought was that it was a car back- firing, till I saw colleagues moving away from glass windows. That was my induction to life in Afghanistan. The second one was when one of my first friends here, a Canadian AID worker, was killed on her way back to Kabul from visiting a community education project. Three other colleagues died with her.

Over the years, one has grown accustomed to the fact that insecurity is a constant part of life. One doesn't even think about it, until another attack/kidnapping happens. Then you find out the details, try and understand where we can tighten security, what one needs to avoid or be careful about and move on to business as usual. It's the only way you can survive working here.

But this Friday was different. I knew many of those killed. I have memories of going to Noor Guest house to visit the doctors when I had been ill, and having heard Nawab, the tabla player, at cultural events numerous times. These were people and places that are like my back yard. My favourite sheer yak (local ice cream) shop is the one next to where the Noor Guest house once stood. It has been vaporised now. I know the children who beg on these streets. I know some of them by name -- they are part of the fabric of my life here. This was an area which has numerous guest houses where friends and colleagues are put up when they are visiting. This time around, I have still not been able to put this behind me and move ahead.

It is the first time I have felt unsafe here, exposed because of my nationality and the fact that I am a Kharaji (foreigner). Till now I have basked in the love and affection the people of this country have showered on me. The way they have opened their hearts and homes to me has always made me feel at home. But I no longer feel that I could blend into the crowd at Mandayee or Laysee Mariam (the local markets), having been told enough number of times that I can pass off for an Afghan woman, till I open my mouth. Now every time I am on the streets and my head- scarf slips, I feel exposed.

One of the first questions I am asked by Afghans is: Am I a Hindustani or a Pakistani? And when I respond, the smile and welcome I get overwhelms me. Indians are loved in this country. Is that all an illusion? I used till now to believe that I am not as much of an outsider as other expats here. I have never been as conscious of my nationality as I am here, both in a positive and negative way; it had never been something that I allow to define me exclusively.

The slightest sound now startles me into thinking: Is this another attack? I do feel unsafe now, however much my friends and colleagues have tried to comfort me and tell me otherwise, it's a sad state of being. I don't live in a fortress with armed guards, and I don't wish to either. That isn't why I am here: to hide behind armed guards, only move between office and home. I am here to get to know this country and its people, to contribute in any small way I can to its development. Large gatherings of Indians is a security risk we are being told, that one needs to avoid guest houses and other places where there is a large Indian population.

I organised a prayer meeting a few days ago in memory of all those who lost their lives in Friday's attack: Afghan, Indian, Italian and French. All of Friday there were calls from Afghan friends and colleagues reaching out. They live with this insecurity every day of their lives. They live with the fact that today might be the last day of their lives. Every single one of them has lost loved ones in the last 30 years of war; I hope I have imbibed some of their strength and resilience while I have lived in their country.

I do not want this fear to remain and change me, I want to continue living and working here with my friends. But I do live with the reality that if 'they' are out to get you, they will. This is the phrase most often used by the Indian and Expat community here. It could just also be a matter of being at the wrong place at the wrong time which, I reflect, is true of any other part of the world as well.

The tragedy is that my memories of Afghanistan are built around such incidents -- those are the time- lines we use here: The day of the Serna attack was the Bollywood party, the day of the German embassy bombing was when our Health Grant came through. These are the incidents you use to remember when things happened. When will this change? In my lifetime? When will my Afghan friends who have had to leave their country be able to come back?

I am of course here by my own choice. My Afghan friends and colleagues don't have that choice. They can't escape the violence. The children on the streets don't have that choice.

[ramana]

The attack was to induce the very reactions she is feeling in the aftermath. All I can say is if she belives in her work she should bash on regardless and think of the unfortunate she still has the bability to help.
Its for the Afghans to turn on the attackers and their handlers and decide for themsleves they wont be messed with. Until that happens TSP can still pull off such proxy attacks.

News reports indicated one of the suicide bombers set himself off as the Indian officer grappled with him. Are there follow up stories of the officer?
Western reprots dont emphaises this. And are the officers allowed to have side arms now?

[Harsha.H.D]

Afghanistan - What India Should Expect And What It Should Do

Vikram Sood, the former RAW chief explains the situation in Afghanistan and also puts forth the options available to India

[Airavat]

Prospectors and Developers Association (PDAC) mining convention in Toronto

"This forum gives us the opportunity to introduce some of our mineral deposits, which we are going to tender in the next 3 to 4 months," said Wahidullah Shahrani, Afghan minister of mines.

The Ministry of Mines plans to seek tenders from companies interested in developing the Hajigak iron deposit within the next two to three months. The deposit, with an estimated resource of well over 1 billion tonnes, is located in the mountainous Bamiyan province, about 130 km (80 miles) west of Kabul. Nearby seams of coking coal would make it possible to set up an integrated iron and steel complex at the site.

The Hajigak project is expected to cost between $5 billion and $6 billion, said Shahrani, who expects the project to generate much more revenue than Aynak (copper mine).

[rkirankr]

India retreats

Another surrender by GOI or it is something chankian which some people here can amazingly interpret from every move of GOI

[sum]

India retreats

Another surrender by GOI or it is something chankian which some people here can amazingly interpret from every move of GOI

Am hoping and praying that its Yindoo psy-ops.

Doubt that any sane GoI ( unless fully infiltrated) will so openly cut and run.

[disha]

India retreats

Another surrender by GOI or it is something chankian which some people here can amazingly interpret from every move of GOI

From Rediff: And we talk about west losing its ability to fight

Also to security gurus here, housing all Indians in a single place does makes it easy to manage, but also does not it provide a big juicy target to attack?

Either way, the way Indian Medical Mission should hang its head in shame, post Feb 26 attack, particularly when they saw their brave compatriots defend them. The very least they can do is to serve with honour so that the other sacrifices do not go in vain.

[Patni]

Well it sure is trial balloon float to gauge the public reaction from the way the news broke.. nothing official so deniable and been broken to select media outlets at same time..

India may scale down Afghan operations

In a major development, India is looking at scaling down its relief and rehabilitation operations in Afghanistan.

According to ministry of home affairs (MHA) sources, India may scale down these operations over a period of 18 months following the recent attack on India nationals in Kabul.

The move comes days after the spate of attacks on Indians in Afghanistan. In the latest attack in Kabul, six Indians were killed last week.

Sources claim that an official advisory on the matter might be issued soon.

India had last week suspended its medical mission in Afghanistan after an attack though the other missions were operating as usual.

The government had also given an option to the Indians working there to return home if they felt insecure in the country.

Also as per NDTV :
http://www.ndtv.com/news/india/india-pl ... -17499.php

India is looking at options to scale down operations of its missions in Afghanistan in the wake of terror attacks against Indians there, government sources have said.

The government is also considering putting all Indians working in road and power projects in Afghanistan together for security reasons, the sources said. {How is one suppose to bring all the various project sites together ?}

An attack on Indians in Kabul last month brought the precarious security situation in focus. Last week, National Security Adviser Shiv Shankar Menon visited Afghanistan to assess the security of the almost 4,000 Indians working on developmental projects in that country.

Menon met Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai and discussed new security measures.

Seven Indians, including three army officers, were killed in the attack on February 26.

As per PTI:
India mulling scaling down Afghan mission operations

New Delhi, Mar 10 (PTI) India is looking at various options including paring down of the operations of its missions in Afghanistan in the wake of terror attacks on Indians there.

Government is also planning to put all the Indians working in projects like power and road together to ensure their safety, reliable government sources said today.

This follows an assessment made by National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon's visit to Kabul last week in the wake of terror attack on Feb 26 on guest houses frequented by Indians in which seven Indians were killed.

Apart from the embassy in Kabul, Indian has consulates in Herat, Kandahar, Mazar-e-Sharif and Jalalabad.

The sources said that an advisory may also be issued asking all Indians now now in Afghanistan to return home.

[krisna]

the scaling down of operations by India- could it be interpreted in different ways depending on how you look at it.
1) India retreats and it is a victory of sorts to pakis as it has successfully forced India to back down from its operations.has become more difficult to manage with current set up, requires more security personnel and India not willing to send them as it causes more takleef to US-Pak.
2) Other way to look at it is Afghanisthan has become more dangerous with increasingly worsening security situation- It is going to be more difficult to US led troops to control the ground situation lest win the war.
Could it be a chanakian way- forcing US led troops to stay for longer time.
Whatever India does it is for the US led troops to make situation better for afghans. Pakis with US in its backyard cannot be as free in dealing with afghans as in post US withdrawal. Also if US withdraws it will be likely for economic reasons --- it may also reduce the funding of paki army.

It is the media which is creating the hype about India's retreat.

[CRamS]

India retreats

Another surrender by GOI or it is something chankian which some people here can amazingly interpret from every move of GOI

It is an abject surrender. My take: a) India doesn't have the will nor the capability to protect its interests in Afganisthan; soft "power" without hard power is only the virtue of cowards, b) With each TSP attack taking out big-wigs like diplomatic attaches, army majors etc; it will give cover to opposition BJP, however feeble, to cuation going slow on making love to TSP. Remember, for the current cabal ruling India: MMS/Sonia and their side-kicks like SSM, face saving surrender to TSP/USA, masquerading as "peace" is an obsession.

[shyamd]

[Rant On]
GOI are the biggest wimps in the world. [/Rant off]
Its a total shame. Perhaps Karzai requested it for the KSA-USA-ISI-Taleban deal. who knows?

[Carl_T]

We should withdraw from Kashmir too now.

[Vince]

No No...India is NOT scaling down. They were just rumors.

http://sify.com/news/india-not-winding- ... bafcb.html

http://netindian.in/news/2010/03/10/000 ... fghanistan

[CRamS]

[Rant On]
GOI are the biggest wimps in the world. [/Rant off]

In any form of govt, democracy, dictatotship, theocracy; thye govt is indicative of the culture, history, and ethos of the people at large.