Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

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ramana
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by ramana »

Malayappan wrote:The AfPak endgame is nigh from The Pioneer by Nitin Pai
Gen Kayani’s moves suggest that he sees the final lap
The AfPak endgame is nigh

Gen Kayani’s moves suggest that he sees the final lap, argues Nitin Pai

US President Barack Obama gave his AfPak speech at West Point on December 1, 2009 where he announced his intention “to begin the transfer of our forces out of Afghanistan in July of 2011.” Pakistani Army chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani signalled his policy by the end that month when a suicide bomber attacked a CIA facility at Khost in Afghanistan

Mr Obama’s speech might have triggered the Pakistani military-jihadi complex into implementing its endgame strategy. Pakistani actions over the last three months suggest that it is both attempting to hasten the US exit from Afghanistan and neutralising the other regional actors — Iran and India — which might oppose a pro-Pakistan post-US arrangement in Kabul. From the attack on the CIA at Khost; to the capture of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar in Karachi; to the terrorist attack at German Bakery in Pune; to the raid on Kabul City Centre; to the rendition of Abdolmalek Rigi to Iran; and most recently, the attack on Indian officials at Kabul, Gen Kayani & Co have executed their moves masterfully.

Mullah Baradar was not only a ‘moderate’ among the Quetta Shura Taliban, but also actually negotiating with the United States and the Karzai Government, against the wishes of the ISI. ‘Capturing’ him not only allowed Pakistan to undermine the US-Afghan political initiative but also allowed Gen Kayani to be seen as arresting a ‘high-ranking Taliban leader’. This was a brilliant move — Washington had to praise Pakistan even after receiving a kick below the belt. It was, nevertheless, a significant setback for independent US political efforts in Afghanistan. It meant that the US relies a little more on Pakistan to act as the, well, interlocutor with the Taliban.

Abdolmalek Rigi, the leader of a Iranian-Baloch-Sunni terrorist organisation called Jundallah, was almost certainly a CIA asset. The Iranian Government has accused him of both being a US agent and of having links with Al Qaeda. Both these charges are perhaps true — contradictory as they might seem. The ISI allowed him to operate from Pakistani territory, for the CIA, against Iran for several years. But after India, Iran and Russia — whose interests were ignored at the London Conference on the future of Afghanistan — started coming together, the ISI played the CIA out and handed him over to Iran. The US can’t complain too loudly, after all, like Mullah Baradar, hasn’t Pakistan just acted against a terrorist with links to Al Qaeda?

(There was the little issue of how to hand Rigi over without setting a precedent that New Delhi might exploit-so an elaborate drama became necessary.)

With Iran it was mollification. With India it is aggression. The attack on Indian officials in Kabul is intended to scare India out of Afghanistan. Even as the Pakistani military-jihadi complex seeks to hasten US military withdrawal, it is working towards installing its proxies into the corridors of power in Kabul. It will allow President Hamid Karzai to remain in office just long enough to provide a political cover for the US — but before long, a pro-Pakistan regime will take his place.

Is Gen Kayani overplaying his hand? Maybe. But bringing the situation to a head before 2011 works to Pakistan’s advantage.

Will the US watch silently as the Pakistani military-jihadi complex destroys its assets and — brazenly, if cleverly — frustrates its designs? Will the vaunted COIN campaign work fast enough? Will the US intensify its covert war inside Pakistan to counter Gen Kayani’s moves? Let’s see.
Actually India should do more if it cares.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Gagan »

Malayappan wrote:The AfPak endgame is nigh from The Pioneer by Nitin Pai
Gen Kayani’s moves suggest that he sees the final lap
The Pakistani plan seems to be a taliban takeover of Afghanistan, backed by pakistani artillery and PAF airstrikes, should a political arrangement where mullah omar comes to power peacefully does not occur. This could be happening as early as December next year, if the US withdraws.

But what if:
1. The US announced a withdrawal with much fanfare to force Pakistan's hand?
2. In spite of Rigi being handed over, there is no love lost between Iran and Pakistan, and pakistan has given up what leverage it had wrt iran?
3. India-Russia-Northern Alliance get together once again to take on a much weakened taliban? And this time around, India and Russia buy out the talibs, and massa quietly winks and lends support?
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Malayappan »

Gagan,

There are many more 'what if's as well as 'so what's!

Iran deal with Rigi will be a So What. It will be naive to believe that Iran will shower eternal gratitude and eschew its interets in Afghanistan as a result. The fundamental contradictions in interests cannot be papered over by the Rigi deal. A useful move from Kayani, but Iran will mange more!

Among other What ifs will be -
- Popalzai counter consolidation
- Accelerated arming by non Pashtuns
- Continuous US presence
- Reactions of Central Asian states, Iran and India
- Stoppage of US financial largesse
- Accelerated US drone action and so on and on.

Point is Kayani had a poor hand, but has played it quite well. That will be to his credit.
But then -
- it is not that he had any other option. The real alternative was to attempt at nation building within pakistan (yeah, yeah!)!
- his moves are all on a single track, requiring many things that are really out of his control to happen simultaneously and sequentially. That is where things should unravel for him.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Rudradev »

Malayappan,

I would not discount the possibility of Beijing's hand behind the ISI's handover of Rigi to Iran.

Consider what Vikram Sood says in his article:
The Chinese have already begun to move into Afghanistan with their commercial and resource interests as they see an opportunity to move closer to the Persian Gulf, given their steady relations with Iran. The Chinese would see themselves moving into empty spaces up to the Persian Gulf vacated by a retreating American empire without having fired a bullet or lost a man.
As a strategic ally, Iran is more important to Beijing than the Pakis in the long term. The Pakis have their uses, such as containing India and influencing a post US Taliban dispensation in Kabul; but they also play footsie with the Americans in a way that Teheran never will.

From Beijing's POV the last thing they want to see is a Russia-Iran-India axis re emerge against a future Taliban regime in Kabul. That would push Pakistan and it's proxy regime in Kabul closer to the US, limiting Chinese influence in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. So they want to be very careful to keep both Pakistan and Iran in the Beijing camp; covering all their bets in Afghanistan when the Americans leave. The long term interest of the Chinese, as Sood suggests, is projecting influence via Afghanistan all the way to Iran's gulf coast. A Teheran-Kabul-Urumqi pipeline would be a godsend for China, allowing them to secure an energy supply route overland that neither Indian nor American naval power could threaten.

To achieve this, in the short term at least, Beijing needs both the Pakis and Iranians to be in its corner. The Pakis to ensure that a stable China-friendly regime is installed in Kabul after the US leaves; and the Iranians to avoid queering the pitch for such a regime by allying with Russia and India as they did in the nineties. Hence they may have prevailed upon Pakistan to give Rigi to Teheran as a peace offering and a CBM that Pakistan would not allow itself to be used by the CIA to destabilize Iran.

The Pakis are hedging their moves that apparently collaborate with America (selectively arresting certain Talibs etc) by simultaneously going along with the Chinese program to build an Iran-Pak-China axis centered around mutual interests in post-US Afghanistan. They know the US wants nothing more than to be out of Afghanistan, and that when they depart they may no longer continue to be as generous with baksheesh. Also, the Pakis don't want to see an Iran-India-Russia axis emerge that could threaten their own candidate government in post-US Afghanistan.

Alliances are shifting. India under MMS has made the stupid mistake of repeatedly alienating the Iranians at America's behest; this will have contributed to the likelihood of Iran drifting toward a China-Pak combine to secure it's Afghan interests, rather than the India-Russia combine of the past. It is perhaps partially to hedge against this that the GOI has now begun to woo Saudi Arabia, engaged in a proxy war against Iran in Yemen. But as with all the hapless measures taken by those in South Block who have the unenviable job of cleaning up the mess in MMS' wake... I fear that whatever results were achieved there have been too little, too late.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by karthik »

ramana wrote:

The Indian preference should be an independent Sindh.
The pakis have some how convinced everyone that a United-Pakistan is better!! Sure its better but for only those little Napoleons who like to play war games in pindipukstan. In reality do we consider Bangladesh a bigger threat than west Pakistan now, if not then what logic is to dismiss evidence and fall for wishful thinking! I find it hard to believe an independent Baluchistan and NWFP as a bigger threat than today's fascist state!! Considering NWFP voted to stay with India during partition i doubt there would be any dispute with us.

A divided pakistan is far more safer for us than an immature state with child like brain which banns cricket players for life for not playing well and fails to realize conflict as the end solution for everything even when itself is consumed by it.

I hope our government and everyone recognizances Bangladesh's example and stops getting confused with paki propaganda.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Shankk »

India to scale down Afghan operations after attacks
NEW DELHI: India is looking at various options including scaling down operations of its missions in Afghanistan in the wake of terror attacks on Indians there.

Government is also planning to put all the Indians working in projects like power and road together to ensure their safety, reliable government sources said today.

This follows an assessment made by National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon's visit to Kabul last week in the wake of terror attack on Feb 26 on guest houses frequented by Indians in which seven Indians were killed.
Shouldn't one of the option include attacks on paki assets in Nepal, Bangladesh and Bhutan to make them scale down their operations?
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by CRamS »

It will be all smiles in the state dept and Holbrook's offices, as they celebrate India leaving. One less excuse as they pile up pressure on TSP to deliver on their interests. And of course, they will continue to dole out condescending praise about India's role in Afganisthan.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by ramana »

CRS, After all is said and done GOI is responsible for safety of its citizens. Right now they dont have the clout nor will power to combat the TSP in afghanistan. By scaling down India will in fact increase the pain on NATO for the terorists will have less targets to dissipate their nergies.
In end GOI scaling down is a self goal for the US. And the wonder is the Holebrookes cant see it and push for that very outcome.

Makes you think Ian Mitroff is right about "Dirty Rotten Strategies" and how we are driven to solve the wrong problems due to pressure form vested interests.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by krithivas »

I'm in general support of GoI trial baloon to temporarily scale down. Nothing is permanent. India has enormous Afghan goodwill to scaleup (post 2012). Soft power passes the test of time.

There is an assumption though - that there is a strategy background to this foreground move.

Prbably the water-bombs from TSP was to keep the pot boiling even if India scales down Afgan ops?

R. Krithivas
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Vince »

No No...India is NOT scaling down. They were just rumors.

http://sify.com/news/india-not-winding- ... bafcb.html

http://netindian.in/news/2010/03/10/000 ... fghanistan
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by putnanja »

Vince wrote:No No...India is NOT scaling down. They were just rumors.

http://sify.com/news/india-not-winding- ... bafcb.html

http://netindian.in/news/2010/03/10/000 ... fghanistan
Your links are truncated and don't open to the right article.

You can use the url tags this way:

[ url=<url here> ] Some descriptive text about the link, usually the title of article [ /url ]

India says no plan to scale down presence in Afghanistan
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by CRamS »

ramana wrote:CRS, After all is said and done GOI is responsible for safety of its citizens. Right now they dont have the clout nor will power to combat the TSP in afghanistan. By scaling down India will in fact increase the pain on NATO for the terorists will have less targets to dissipate their nergies.
In end GOI scaling down is a self goal for the US. And the wonder is the Holebrookes cant see it and push for that very outcome.

Makes you think Ian Mitroff is right about "Dirty Rotten Strategies" and how we are driven to solve the wrong problems due to pressure form vested interests.
I wish what you are saying is true Ramana. What if US doesn't mind the "terrorists" as long as they are "good" ones from TSP? US objectives could very well be that TSP in control of Afganisthan, no harboring of terrorists targeting west, and free access to black gold in central asia. If this is the case, what use does US have for SDRE soft "power" in Afganisthan given that the mere mention of India gets TSP into a tizzy?
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by ramana »

You have to be a stoic or stitha pragna and look at things dispassionately. It always helps to ask how does this benefit India for everything :politically, economcially and culturally.

Meanwhile Nightwatch perceptively says:
India-Pakistan: Update. An Indian prosecutor in a special court in Mumbai said active duty members of the Pakistan Army and a serving major general oversaw the training of Lashkar-e-Taiba militants who carried out the deadly Mumbai attacks in November 2008, Press Trust of India reported 9 March. Special Public Prosecutor Ujjwal Nikam said in his final arguments that it could be inferred that the attack was state-sponsored.

The Hindu account is sharper. “The November 26 attack was not an ordinary attack by 10 indoctrinated terrorists. It was well orchestrated, meticulously planned and [reflected] a deep-seated hatred for our country. It was a classic case of sponsored terrorism. Evidence by the prosecution has successfully established that the attack was sponsored by Pakistan. Irrefutable inference [can be drawn] that it was sponsored by State actors involved in the security apparatus of Pakistan,” Mr. Nikam argued.

He said the Major General's name was not revealed to the attackers “undoubtedly because he was from the Pakistan Army.” “He is an entity separate from the Lashkar-e-Taiba [LeT]; he must have been the supreme authority running the training camp.”

Citing excerpts from the judicial confession statement of lone surviving terrorist Mohammad Ajmal Amir Kasab, recorded on 20 February 2009, Mr. Nikam said the Major General visited the training camps when military and intelligence training was being imparted to the attackers. He had enquired whether the trainees had any complaints and was keen that they completed the mission given by the LeT.

Comment: The Indians are serious about improving anti-terror cooperation, whereas Pakistan wants to restart a comprehensive dialogue. Pakistan has arrested terrorists from every group except those that target India. When that occurs, India will know Pakistan has abandoned terror as an instrument of state policy.

Since mid-January, Pakistan has done more to disrupt Pakistan-based terrorists and insurgents than any administration in a quarter century. But it has done little to suppress anti-Indian terrorists, which explains the public embarrassment of the Mumbai trial.

Afghanistan-Pakistan: Taliban reintegration, the extradition of Mullah Berader, and the status of kidnapped Afghan diplomat Abdul Khaliq Farahi are among topics likely to be discussed when Afghan President Hamid Karzai visits Pakistan on 10 and 11 March, Dawn News reported. Karzai is due to meet with Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani.

At least the atmosphere for discussions is better than at any time in Karzai’s administration, owing to Coalition successes in Helmand Province and Pakistan’s arrest of half of the Quetta/Karachi Shura that advises Mullah Omar.

Ironically, Pakistan’s success gives Karzai a strong argument that Pakistan has the capability, intelligence and resources to round up the other half of Omar’s advisory group and Omar himself … as well as deliver the whole lot into Afghan custody.
Can folks like gagan et al scour Paki media since Jan 2009 to see who got promoted from Maj Gen to above for the success of the 26/11? And thus narrow the list of potential suspects? Or Hilal -e Jahnums
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Vince »

putnanja wrote:
Vince wrote:No No...India is NOT scaling down. They were just rumors.

http://sify.com/news/india-not-winding- ... bafcb.html

http://netindian.in/news/2010/03/10/000 ... fghanistan
Your links are truncated and don't open to the right article.

You can use the url tags this way:

[ url=<url here> ] Some descriptive text about the link, usually the title of article [ /url ]

India says no plan to scale down presence in Afghanistan
Sure thing! Thanks for the tip!
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Gagan »

I suspect that the jodi of Kiyani and Pasha (Billa and Ranga) are going to do some strategic brilliance in Af-Pak.

Their past efforts include the mumbai 26/11, a masterstroke on their part - really prick india, and let the blame fall on some Indian sounding deccan mujaheedin. It was strategically brilliant, but they are still reeling from the blowback it caused them, and will continue for a while.

They did the same in Kargil. Stragetically brilliant, but a huge failure nevertheless.

There is a possibility that billa ranga have displayed their cards when Obama announced with much fanfare that they will begin withdrawing. The handing over of Rigi is surprising, because that shows the pakistanis felt pressured to let go of an important asset, wonder what pressures were made to bear to make them take such a drastic step.

I wouldn't really rely on the pakistanis coming out winners on this one.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by ramana »

Re: Rigi look at the KSA-Iran dynamic. Shyamd posted how Iran escalated in Yemen to KSA discomfort and hence the KSA leanded on TSP to deal Rigi. Even here the Iranians had to force the jet down.

Anyway I got some work for you if you want in the above post.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Gagan »

ramana wrote:Anyway I got some work for you if you want in the above post.
Not this and the next week sirji,
I will search for it when I can, but these two weeks are going to be very hectic for me. Big job related D day arriving very soon.

But it would be reasonable to assume that the corps commander of the region must be the person responsible.
Kasab and his collegues were trained around Muzzafarabad and Tarbela dam, and later off Karachi with the Pakistani SSG.
That would be I corps headquartered at Mangla, X corps at Rawalpindi, where the kashmir corps is also stationed, and the V corps HQ at Karachi.

Either the corps commander himself, or the GOC of the area around Muzaffrabad, Tarbela, Karachi in Early-Mid 2008.
Last edited by Gagan on 11 Mar 2010 01:07, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Rangudu »

Ramana

It is widely believed that the Maj. Gen in the 26/11 narrative is former DG of ISI Nadeem Taj.

Remember that these guys were in contact with this guy from 2007 onwards, which was the time when Taj was promoted from Maj.Gen to Lt.Gen.

Before that Taj was head of MI and Musharraf's Military Secretary.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Gagan »

On Nadeem Taj I quote this from wikipedia:
Chief of Intelligence

Taj was promoted to Major General on 1 February 2002[5] and was already serving as the Military Secretary (MS) to the President of Pakistan (different from Military Secretary (MS), GHQ). It was during this time when Musharraf's convoy was attacked in Rawalpindi. Shortly after that incident, Taj was appointed Director General of Military Intelligence (DGMI) in December 2003 in place of the newly promoted-Lt Gen Tariq Majid who proceeded as the new Chief of General Staff. Taj was himself replaced as President's MS by Maj Gen Shafaat Ullah Shah. Taj continued as DGMI till February 2005, when he was replaced by Maj Gen Mian Nadeem Ijaz Ahmed.
Command appointments

Taj then moved on to become General Officer Commanding (GOC) 11th Infantry Division Lahore and continued till 24 April, 2006, when he obtained the role of Commandant of the Pakistan Military Academy (PMA) at Kakul, Abbottabad District.[6] It was from there that he was promoted to the position of ISI chief on 21 September 2007.

On September 29, 2008, The Australian reported that "Washington is understood to be exerting intense pressure on Pakistan to remove ISI boss Nadeem Taj and two of his deputies because of the key agency's alleged "double-dealing" with the militants."[7]

Lt Gen Nadeem Taj took over the Gujranwala Corps after the incumbent Lt Gen Waseem Ahmad Ashraf retired from the army on 4 October, 2008.[2]
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by ramana »

There must be pic of him somewhere. Why dont they show his pics among with others and note Kasab's reaction?
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by svinayak »

India Abroad
Friday, February 19, 2010 Vol. XL No. 21

Image
http://img189.imageshack.us/img189/280/ ... wilson.jpg

Can somebody figure out if the views of Charlie wilson is a US offocial policy on afpak and also India in afpak
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Gagan »

ramana wrote:There must be pic of him somewhere. Why dont they show his pics among with others and note Kasab's reaction?
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 60#p769660
ImageImageImage
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by abhishek_sharma »

Man Versus Afghanistan

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arc ... an/7983/1/
Divided by geography, cursed by corruption, stunted by poverty, staggered by a growing insurgency—Afghanistan seems beyond salvation. Is it? From Somalia and the Balkans to Iraq, the U.S. military has been embroiled in conflicts that reflect an age-old debate: Can individual agency triumph over deep-seated historical, cultural, ethnic, and economic forces? Drawing on his experiences in Iraq, the commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, Stanley McChrystal, has his own answer to that question.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by NRao »

Have not been keeping up with events lately, but what am I missing here:
Mullah Baradar was not only a ‘moderate’ among the Quetta Shura Taliban, but also actually negotiating with the United States and the Karzai Government, against the wishes of the ISI. ‘Capturing’ him not only allowed Pakistan to undermine the US-Afghan political initiative but also allowed Gen Kayani to be seen as arresting a ‘high-ranking Taliban leader’. This was a brilliant move — Washington had to praise Pakistan even after receiving a kick below the belt. It was, nevertheless, a significant setback for independent US political efforts in Afghanistan. It meant that the US relies a little more on Pakistan to act as the, well, interlocutor with the Taliban.
The early reports stated that the US had tabbed Baradar and let the IS know exactly where he is. Some reports, in fact, stated that the CIA was among those that went to arrest him.

So, where did this feather in a Paki come from? Missing something?

TIA.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Malayappan »

India seeks a new direction MKB writes - on AfPak. A must read in full. I refrain from posting excerpts!
Rudradev, he touches upon your point on China but only fleetingly. I wanted to come back on that one, after I had gained some more knowledge - not ready! In meantime, need to watch that space from MKB. BTW, he shares some of your assessments...
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by NRao »

Like I said India should have (now that Pakistan has become the center of everyone else's policies) have taken care of the ISI. IF it is true that Pakistan can deliver on regional peace, then why would anyone try and topple that cart? IF that is true, then India is the bad guy.

A few things in that MKB article are new to me (not reading up) but I find it rather hard to believe that India did not game these situations properly and thus calibrate the response properly.

There is one other situation. IF Omaba's stay in the WH is just two more years, then India can see some light there.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by ramana »

NRao, ISI is not an independent entity.Its a part and parcel of TSPA. Taking care of ISI is belling the cat. Short of military collapse of TSPA it wont happen.
Tell us more reachable targets.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by svinayak »

Malayappan wrote:India seeks a new direction MKB writes - on AfPak. A must read in full. I refrain from posting excerpts!
Most important
exaggerated notions within the establishment regarding the US-India strategic partnership as an alternative to an independent foreign policy and diversified external relationships - all these appear now like dreadful pantomimes out of India's foreign policy chronicle of recent years that Delhi would rather not think about.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by RamaY »

On that MKB article -

India's problem is its lack of clarity and assertiveness. Even if there are no other players, does it know what it really wants in Af-Pak region? How do they plan to influence other players about their vision if they themselves are not convinced and assertive about it?

Look at others
Pakis - They want a puppet govt in Afghanistan and use it as strategic depth.
USA - Want complete influence in this region so they can check Russia, and Iran
China - Access to natural resources, land route to Iran and Gulf thru Pakistan
Iran - Play spoiler to USA and Paki/KSA combine

what does India want in Afghanistan?
- A hindu state?
- A secular democratic government :rotfl:

Wanting Afghanistan to be free from external influence is a big strategic/leadership joke.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by CRamS »

Malayappan wrote:India seeks a new direction MKB writes - on AfPak. A must read in full. I refrain from posting excerpts!
Rudradev, he touches upon your point on China but only fleetingly. I wanted to come back on that one, after I had gained some more knowledge - not ready! In meantime, need to watch that space from MKB. BTW, he shares some of your assessments...
As far as I am concerned, MKB is not saying anything new nor offers any good strategy for India other thwn the hackeneyed BS of Russia etc. Yes, there has been dejection in Indian circiles on US betrayal. Everybody knows that. I knew it from the day Jassu bhai Guboed before "my friend Strobe". US will simply not allow a muscular Hindu-domintaed India come out of a regional "South Asia" bnox, and it will never let go off TSP as important pressure point on India. India's dilemma is like that of a woman stuck in staid relationship with a languid man, and seeking a more virile lover; but then she feels jilted as the lover she seeks is a cassinova that other women are after too. So she realizes it, but what are her choices? Go back to the guy she has no passion for? (Maybe meditation and spiritual therapy :-)). Thats what MKB seems to be suggesting.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Gagan »

Simple si baat:

India wants Afghanistan to do for India what Pakistan is doing for china, so that India can concentrate on Economy and China in that order.
NRao
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by NRao »

Belling anything is passe. (Only so much of history can apply to this fast(er) moving era.)

ISI seems to be doing to India what I would have liked India do to them - make them insignificant. Exist, but insignificant. Let them have a table somewhere with a shiny, brass name plate hanging somewhere prominent.

I am not sure how much of that article to believe, but if indeed India supported AA because the US did so, then India can only follow the directives of the US in the near term. Specially if Pakistan has made in-roads into the Northern team AND also has the ear of Karzai.

Things change, so I see all this is a temporary mess.

US coat tails it is. IF that is true, then why bother formulating a new policy/strategy. It is perfectly acceptable to send a NSA for a two day junket (what is new there?) and make a bhashan (what is new there?) and wrap up the scene.

I always felt that India had an independent, but a converging view with that of the US. But, ............................ out sourcing is the order of the day. Trading IT for FP? Dunno. Could be a decent trade I guess.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by A_Gupta »

Specially if Pakistan has made in-roads into the Northern team AND also has the ear of Karzai.
The biggest taqqiya is what these leaders say to each other. The words are for display only. Now, if e.g., Pakistan turns over some of the arrested Taliban leaders like Afghanistan has been demanding, then you know something is changing.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by csharma »

Even KS now talks about the possibility of India being taken for a ride. Let's see what happens in the coming few months.

Pak poking nose, India must change Afghanistan policy'

http://www.dnaindia.com/india/analysis_ ... cy_1357372
"Unless India prepares for the time when the American’s pull out, we will not be in a position to face the political crisis that it will trigger,” former foreign secretary Lalit Mansingh said.

He suggested that one way to do so was to revive the India-Russia-Iran axis which supported the Northern Alliance and played an important role in helping the US dislodge the Taliban in 2001.
Retired diplomat Rajiv Sikri believes that while the India-Russia-Iran grouping must be revived, China should not be made a part of it. He suspects that whatever is being planned would be shared with Pakistan by the Chinese. “We are buying arms worth millions of dollars from the Americans. India has to cause Washington some pain for its voice to be heard,” he added.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by hulaku »

Af-Pak situation a concern to entire world: Putin
Participating in a video conference with businessmen from Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Bangalore, Putin said: "As far as terror groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan are concerned, it is a matter of worry for the entire region and in fact, the whole world."
http://www.ptinews.com/news/560951_Af-P ... rld--Putin
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by vishal »

Pakis realize they got off cheaply in Lahore today.
http://www.samaa.tv/News17891-Twin_blas ... area_.aspx

50 dead and DCO-Lahore says 'attacks could have been serious'.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by Gagan »

WRT Nadeem Taj visiting the LET terrorists in training. He is too senior a person to have shown his face openly in a terrorist training camp, specially one where terrorists were being trained for operations outside of Kashmir, and that too where the aim was to kill westerners.

More likely, some other General - likely a GOC in the area of Muzzafarabad, Tarbela, Karachi went and saw these terrorists.

But kasab will have duly informed NIA, and RAW about the good general's antecedents. Captured terrorists are most cooperative when RAW interrogates them.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by NRao »

Ex-Pakistan spy chief urges talks with Omar

So, what else is new?
Talking to the Taliban leader in Afghanistan may help bring peace to the country, according to a former Pakistan spy chief once referred to as the "father of the Taliban."

Retired Gen. Hamid Gul, a former head of the ISI spy agency, worked with the CIA through the 1980s to fund and train the Afghan Jihad against the Soviets. Many of the Mujahedeen went on to govern Afghanistan as the Taliban, who are led by Mullah Omar.

"The best situation would be to talk to Mullah Omar," Gul said. "Put up your own conditions where I would say it is legitimate ... I think they will accept. I know their psychology."

Face-to-face talks would work best, Gul added.

"You have to engage him. You have to talk to him," Gul said. "There is no one else, for heaven sake, why beat around the bush?"

Last year, Gul said Omar was the only person who can improve U.S. interests in Afghanistan.

"Mullah Omar, nobody else," Gul said.

He insisted that President Barack Obama's administration can access Omar through the Pakistan military. But the Pakistani Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) denied that the Pakistani military is in contact with Omar and that it can bring him and other commanders to the negotiating table. {I would bet on Gul}

In his latest interview, Gul decried the terrorist label on the Taliban, saying former President George W. Bush was wrong to call them that.

"This is wrong, by any definition," he said. "No shred of evidence is available that they were involved in any terrorist activity."

Last year, Gul said a stated Taliban condition to any discussions - the complete withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan first - was not a fixed demand.

With concessions from Washington, it could be softened and make way for negotiations to begin, he said.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai has said he will pursue talks with the Taliban as part of a reconciliation and reintegration plan.

Karzai has said he plans to buy off low-level Taliban foot soldiers with cash and make peace with some Taliban leaders by offering them government positions.

While Washington supports the plan, it rejects a dialogue involving Omar.

The Taliban has said Omar is not interested in a peace deal.

-CNN's Reza Sayah contributed to this report.
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Re: Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

Post by RamaY »

Gagan wrote:Simple si baat:

India wants Afghanistan to do for India what Pakistan is doing for china, so that India can concentrate on Economy and China in that order.
Such an objective would require India to extend the help that China did to Pakistan. Are we ready? Then is Karzai the right horse?
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