Indus Water Treaty

arun · Post by **arun** » 12 Mar 2010 09:05

VikasRaina wrote:Sridhar,
I can understand the reason why Pakistan signed IWT as they had no other option. What I fail to understand is why did India go out of the way to sign IWT.

I suspect that we did not have the financial resources to fund the water and power projects on our own and the existence of disputes over river waters was making lenders cagy about parting with funds, and by lenders I particularly mean the World Bank. Back in 1950's and 1960's there was not a lot of choice.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 12 Mar 2010 09:27

When partition occurred Pakistan was using about 12-15 MAF of water from the Eastern rivers.

It was India's intent to wrest claim of these waters from Pakistan. Any sharing of these waters would be certain to cause acrimony and political brinkmanship.
The fact that India succeeded is probably the only time a lower riparian 'gave up' a prior use.

The western rivers were rarely thought of as use-able at that time. Even Hydel was very expensive.

Of course now we need the power and have the money, which is what is causing all this Takleef.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 12 Mar 2010 17:02

when talking about Population increase since partition in Pakjab, lets also not ignore anther fact here. The reason why PAKjab and other areas had such low poulation based post partition was that they they either killed or got 25% of thier population to forecfully migrate. This tolen wealth sustained Pak for first 25 years since independence.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 13 Mar 2010 07:34

Pakistan wants new measures to energise IWT
New terminology, 'energise'.

Affirming its commitment to the Indus Water Treaty (IWT), Pakistan has sought measures to make the mechanism more effective by outlining its concerns, as well as proposing measures that would reduce distrust between the two countries.
{Let's turn the tables on Pakistan. We should ask Pakistan to address the root cause of the distrust. The root cause of the distrust was and continues to be the division of the country based on religion, based on the legacy of the imaginary ruling class, based on fabricated history, based on hatred and based on violence let loose against non-Muslims especially Hindus and Sikhs}

In a non-paper submitted to India, Pakistan has said construction of projects on the three western rivers should be undertaken only after objections are amicably resolved.{Those days are over, dear friend. We have been more than magnanimous and generous with you and bore the sever brunt of such approach in Salal, Uri, Tulbul etc. That approach would work with a civilized country, but not with a difficult barbarian whose sole aim is to destroy India}It also called upon India to submit full and timely information about new power plants and irrigation works on these rivers. {India has no obligation to provide any information beyond what IWT stipulates}

Islamabad has also suggested joint water shed management and joint commissioning of environmental studies that would address emerging concerns arising from reduced flows.{It looks like Man Mohan Singh has offered something like that already if terrorism is stopped. That would be most foolish if true. I am getting concerned with the approach of Mr. Singh}

Pakistan has also drawn attention to “additional concerns,” such as deforestation and pollution and India's non-responsiveness to Pakistan's concerns raised in the Indus Water Commission. Islamabad also believes New Delhi has fallen short in meeting the three requirements listed under the IWT — details of new projects six months before their commencement, diversion for storage and farm purposes from western rivers and providing details about ancillary projects.

It appears from the above that the intention of Pakistan is to make it appear that the present IWT has broken down in most areas. It also wants another Treaty, under international intervention, with solid guarantees to Pakistan with Pakistan having unlimited access to all parts of the riverine systems even in the upper riparian country and in which Pakistan will have overriding authority on the usage by the upper riparian.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 13 Mar 2010 09:46

SSridhar wrote: It appears from the above that the intention of Pakistan is to make it appear that the present IWT has broken down in most areas. It also wants another Treaty, under international intervention, with solid guarantees to Pakistan with Pakistan having unlimited access to all parts of the riverine systems even in the upper riparian country and in which Pakistan will have overriding authority on the usage by the upper riparian.

An evolved and metastasized form of the cancerous 'Chenab Formula'.??

This one clearly lays bare the original veiled feint for the water.

Bheem · Post by **Bheem** » 13 Mar 2010 19:05

Re SS

You were going to give a short reply on relevance of SYL & other link canals from stopping the water going to Pakistan, pls do so when you get time.

From general reading of this thread it seems that Flow to pakistan will reduce by around 10 MAF when we fully use our right of irrigation and also prevent excess eastern river water going to Pakistan. this may not do much to damage pakistan as what may be hurting pakistan is its poor irrigation infrastructure.

On second note, as per you hardly any water is going to sea from Pakistan as Indus water bed is dry for last 100km or so. But then how building more dams like Kalabagh etc will help pakistan? if there is no water to store. More dams would have been relevant if the water was going waste to sea, i suppose.

munna · Post by **munna** » 13 Mar 2010 19:41

Eastern rivers are untouchable and off the table. Satluj, Ravi and Beas are lifelines of Punjab. Any move there will backfire on GOI no matter how intent GOI is to surrender to Bakis. IWT shall not be revisited.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 13 Mar 2010 21:30

Well, Indian can do chai biscuit for new treaty till hell freeze or Paki become rational. Since both impossible, longer Paki take to accept their lowly destiny , more painful is gonna be their existence. MMS might be their last hope but even he cant throw the Indian crumbs to them . Eventualy Pakistan has to reconcile with Indian wishes if they want to grow.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 13 Mar 2010 22:35

Pk Flood Commissioner observed in a paper presentation in the 3rd International Conference on Water Resources and Arid Environments (2008) and the 1st Arab Water Forum

Of the 145 MAF of water that enters the Indus Basin annually 104 MAF is
diverted for irrigation at the canal heads. It is estimated that about 35% of the
water is lost in transit from canals to fields and 25% because of inefficient
irrigation techniques. With the continuing increase in population at the current
rate of 2.7 %, there is a need to optimize the water resources management:
irrigation efficiencies, optimization of consumptive uses, amending cropping
patterns compatible with agro-ecological zones, harnessing of hill torrents and
harvesting rain-fed areas. This is also essential to stop the per capita availability
of water from falling below the minimum required threshold of 1000 cubic meter
capita per annum which will lead to Pakistan falling into the category of water
scarce countries. Hence availability of surface water is also an issue that poses a
considerable threat to the resource base-the environment. The continued
abstraction of groundwater particularly through over-pumping has led to the
depletion of the water table in many areas. This problem has become more acute
in recent years due to the continued and extended drought cycle being suffered
by Pakistan.

SO they know that they are wasting 60% due to inefficient utilisations. Then he laments that loss of water from eastern rivers aggravates the situation (since out of 29MAF only 8 MAF flows that too flood flows) . They need to energise their IBIS rather than asking India to stop using what is its due share.

Indus Basin water flows are seasonal and largely depends on glacial melts and monsoon. So efficient untilisation could only be the answer.
Flood Commissioner also says that water availability has suffered due to draughut like situation in pk since 2001.Should he not blame weather god rather than IN?

The water availability has not largely diminished in so far as water entering PK is concerned.As per data given by IN for Avg Annual Flow

Eastern Rivers 33MAF
Western Rivers 145MAF
Total 168MAF

At the time of partition eastern punjab irrigation sys was not so developed and almost all waters flowed to pk. That eastern waters could be used only after construction of B-N dams resulting in harit kranti.
IN is entitled to use waters ( ICA in acres) but restricted till until India can
release water from the conservation storage as defined in Annexure E
Name of the river entitled Restricted
The Indus 70,000 70,000
The Jhelum 4,00,000 1,50,000
The Chenab 2,31,000 50,000
TOTAL 7,01,000 2,70,000

Also storage and power storage capacity that IN can do is restricted (in MAF)
Storage Power storage Flood Storage

Indus 0.25 0.15 Nil
Jhelum 0.25 0.50 0.75
Jhelum Main nil nil As in Para 9 Ann E
chenab 0.50 0.60 nil
chenab main nil 0.60 nil

power storage capacity can be increased on chenab provided equal reduction is offered on jhelum and chenab main.
As one can see actual utilisation by IN is much less than entitlement of waters on western rivers.PK is still getting about 135-145 MAF out of western rivers.Seasonal variations on Indus system due to factors mentioned earlier is between 120MAF to 30MAF ( pk Flood Commissioner). PK has not permitted IN to build storage capacity to regulate flow of water on western rivers esp. Indus. This could have helped pk in ensuring adequate flow during lean season.But they have their own fears.

Now as of 1947 eastern parts of punjab could not use waters of indus river system due to underdeveloped canal system.And due to partition major headworks which fed water to IBIS in western punjab fell in IN i.e. Madhopur on Ravi river and the other at Ferozepur on Sutlej river. After expiry of Standstill agreement IN stopped release of water from these two headworks in 1948 and pk could do nothing. Thereafter IWT was entered into after protracted neogiation till 1960. IN paid pound sterling 62060000 for replacement works of waters of eastern rivers. After transition period pk has no claim on eastern rivers.

See the IBIS in pk as per flood commissioner

According to initial estimates of available supplies both by IN and pk as submitted during treaty negotiations is 119MAF/118 MAF at the time of negotiations. The present available supplies that enters pk below RIM in indus system is about 145 MAF. So clearly there is no reduction but general increase in availability of waters in Indus system flowing to pk.This is accentuated by pk by raising protracted objections on all projects. In fact it had raised objections on B-N dams also to which it has no rights as per IWT.

Of course , things have changed in recent years and IN has developed or is in the process of developing several dams and it has financial muscle ( also armed forces muscle) to do this. Whereas pk still does not have enough strength to utilise its share of water properly or efficiently. So it shows IN as guilty party doing injustice to pk. Let us not forget that being upper riparian state IN could have laid claims to most of the waters of western rivers since canal works were not developed for eastern parts even though there was enough potential. In 1948 pk was not in a position to enforce itsWILL ( nor it has now) but IN choose to be a benevolent big brother to keep ever elusive peace. Now also pk is counterpoising water for terror solution. This is nothing but sheer blackmail and would not work. This also goes to show that IWT has given pk more than enough and if pk has to live with dignity it has to abide by IWT.

Now it would be clear to manjgu that supplies available in western rivers is more than three time of that of eastern rivers and India is not able to draw enough waters for agriculture use from western rivers even today.Water availability for pk has not decreased beyond seasonal variations (accounted for). The reduction is due to 60% water being wasted and due to proliferating populations. These factors are well known to them yet blame has to be laid at the door of IN so that public do not realise follies of their rulers.

pk can negotiate IWT at their own peril that is why they are using terms like energise or spirit, which means IN should give alms to them. They are essentially begging for waters.However IN should offer to build more storage capacity on western Indus system to manage flood waters.

ps: subject to any corrections by ssridhar

Bheem · Post by **Bheem** » 14 Mar 2010 09:13

Re SS & Chanakya

As per this thread, the eastern rivers are still discharging around 3 to 8 MAF to Pakistan due to floods (??) in monsoons(??) So are we process of building canals/dams to store this water or to divert this water to say Rajasthan, haryana etc?? if nothing else to recharge the ground water table?

Bheem · Post by **Bheem** » 14 Mar 2010 09:22

chaanakya wrote:The water availability has not largely diminished in so far as water entering PK is concerned.As per data given by IN for Avg Annual Flow

Eastern Rivers 33MAF
Western Rivers 168MAF

As one can see actual utilisation by IN is much less than entitlement of waters on western rivers.PK is still getting about 135-145 MAF out of western rivers.

According to initial estimates of available supplies both by IN and pk as submitted during treaty negotiations is 119MAF/118 MAF at the time of negotiations. The present available supplies that enters pk below RIM in indus system is about 145 MAF.
ps: subject to any corrections by ssridhar

If the flow in western rivers is 168MAF, so is India using 168-145=23MAF? this would be lot of usuage as it seems india is not even using that much amount of water even from eastern rivers?

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 14 Mar 2010 10:29

Sorry Bheem, My mistake.
Indian estimate for western rivers is 135MAF adding 33MAF of eastern rivers , the total avg annual availibility is 168MAF and not for western rivers alone.
Figure now corrected.
However PK's flood commissioner states that 145MAF enters pk below RIM that is including 8-13MAF from eastern rivers which IN is not able to use.
Sutlej Yamuna Link (SYL) Canal will be useful in delivering Haryana share of Ravi-Beas waters , held up due to disputes as per answer given to parliament (UNSTARRED QUESTION NO 3038 in RS on 20.12.2005 )

Linking of Sutlej and Yamuna rivers through the mostly completed Sutlej Yamuna Link Canal is dependant upon the outcome of a Presidential Reference related to the Punjab Termination of Agreements Act, 2004 before the Hon’ble Supreme Court. Under the National Perspective Plan for Water Resources Development (1980),

Sutlej and Beas rivers have been linked under Beas Project Unit-I named Beas Sutlej Link, and
Ravi and Beas are also connected through the Madhopur Beas Link.

So pk is having free lunch due to disputes between punjab and haryana.

Airavat · Post by **Airavat** » 14 Mar 2010 13:26

Internal mismanagement causing water shortage in Sindh

Thousands of farmers, deprived of irrigation and drinking water, on Monday manhandled the Sub-Divisional Officer (SDO) of Larkana and Dokri irrigation subdivision on the Larkana-Moen-jo-Daro Road and dismantled the iron gates of distributaries in Dokri Taluka to get water.

The Irrigation Department had closed the Dadu canal and its distributaries in December 2009 to carry out desilting and repairs and recently released only 6,000 cusecs into the canal, which was not enough even to meet the requirement of drinking water.

arun · Post by **arun** » 15 Mar 2010 09:18

Liquid jihad: Water lies to boost dampened spirits

arun · Post by **arun** » 15 Mar 2010 19:18

The Punjabi’s of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan are getting creative in their efforts to persuade their Sindh and NWFP located compatriots to support dam building that will allow the Punjabi’s to pilfer yet more water, by playing the Indian card.

Thus even as India is supposedly funding NGO’s in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan to oppose Dam Construction there, the US, Israel, Eurrope and the IMF have supposedly provided India USD 212 Billion to build dams “on Pakistani water share”

:

'India funding NGOs to oppose hydel power plans'

Will love of a good conspiracy theory involving Kaafir Hindu India, Kaafir Christian Crusader US and Kaafir Jewish Zionist Israel prove a productive ploy to permit Punjab to get Sindh and NWFP to forget their self interest in not pandering to Punjab’s water gluttony?

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 15 Mar 2010 19:33

arun wrote:The Punjabi’s of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan are getting creative in their efforts to persuade their Sindh and NWFP located compatriots to support dam building that will allow the Punjabi’s to pilfer yet more water, by playing the Indian card.

Thus even as India is supposedly funding NGO’s in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan to oppose Dam Construction there, the US, Israel, Eurrope and the IMF have supposedly provided India USD 212 Billion to build dams “on Pakistani water share” :

'India funding NGOs to oppose hydel power plans'

Will love of a good conspiracy theory involving Kaafir Hindu India, Kaafir Christian Crusader US and Kaafir Jewish Zionist Israel prove a productive ploy to permit Punjab to get Sindh and NWFP to forget their self interest in not pandering to Punjab’s water gluttony?

You really have to admire the coordinated and consistent line taken by all the pakis.

Not like our dear anti Indian DDM which is even now pushing the paki line through its fifth column anchors.

arun · Post by **arun** » 16 Mar 2010 11:59

arun wrote:The water in Mangla Dam is now down to the dead level. Expect much more raving and ranting from the Islamic Republic of Pakistan about "water theft" by India:

Water in Mangla Dam reaches dead level

Tarbela joins Mangla in reaching the dead level:

Tarbela dam reservoir hits dead level

neeraj · Post by **neeraj** » 16 Mar 2010 15:16

Water Woes

Nationalists in Sindh accuse Punjab of deliberately starving the lower riparian of water, while some otherwise informed inhabitants of Punjab hold to this day that discharges into the Arabian Sea amount to a waste of a precious resource. We need to get away from these conspiracy theories and work together, for the collective good of the country.

Pakistan is already categorised as a water-stressed nation and is, in fact, hovering around the water-starved level. The vagaries of climate change and the burden of a burgeoning population will only add to our troubles. Consider this: Pakistan’s per capita availability of water stood at 5,300 cubic metres per person in 1951. By 2006 this figure had fallen to 1,105 cubic metres. The situation today is probably even more dire.

The Ravi now is little more than a sewage drain in its incarnation near Lahore. Downstream of Kotri, the once mighty Indus, the river Sindhu, has been so choked by dams that cattle wander along its beds. Agriculture in Sindh has taken a huge hit due to water scarcity and riverine fishermen have suffered too. Even more troubling perhaps is the problem of sea intrusion. The Indus was historically strong enough to push back the sea but that is no longer the case. Estimates vary, depending on the political affiliations of those producing the figures, but the sum total is staggering by any count. Unbiased observers believe that at least two million acres of arable land has been devoured in Sindh by sea intrusion over the last 20 years . Crops, homes and livelihoods have been lost, and extra pressure exerted on urban infrastructures. Human dignity is also a victim . Farmers and herders, who once had their own land and animals, are now being forced to clean shrimp for a pittance in Karachi’s outlying fishing communities.

Sunday marked the International Day of Action for Rivers. The nationalists were out in force, as expected, but conspicuous by their absence were those whose voices could be called tempered. Our inter-provincial disputes must now give way to a more informed discourse on India’s illegal water appropriation in Indian-administered Kashmir - Sure it's also India's fault - blame yindoos for everything. We must also say goodbye to our profligate ways . Agriculture accounts for nearly 97 per cent of all water usage in Pakistan, and everyone knows that we waste this resource every single day. Canal lining and land-levelling projects are behind schedule and there has been little or no government support for modern irrigation systems. The problem doesn’t end there. Pesticide-ridden run-off from overly watered farms is polluting waterways and natural aquifers. Water can no longer be taken for granted and integrated management is the need of the hour.

Airavat · Post by **Airavat** » 17 Mar 2010 06:27

Chashma Jhelum Link Canal is anti-Sindh

Punjab, which has been getting the lion’s share of Indus waters all this while, is pitted against Sindh and Balochistan for denying the latter “their rightful share” of Indus waters and for going ahead with Chashma-Jhelum and Taunsa-Pinjad link canals projects at a time when Sindh, Balochistan and even southern Punjab are battling serious water shortages due to failed rains.

The News dated March 12, Pakistan’s per capita resources had dwindled from 5,000 cubic meters at Partition to 1,200 cubic metres now not because of India “stealing” its waters but due to internal factors such as accelerated population growth, inefficient irrigation and farming techniques and fluctuating glacial melt on account of rising global temperatures.

According to water expert A N Abbasi, “if the process of stealing Sindh’s water did not stop, then there would be no option but to wage a war.” Another water expert Nazir Memon pointed out that Punjab had constructed 16 barrages, 2 dams and 2 canals forcibly and that the province was taking Sindh’s water. Even the political leaders from Sindh, including Sindh National Party’s Amir Bhambroo, have warned that federal structure could break if the provinces’ water issues were not addressed

Shutdown in Sindh over Chashma-Jhelum Link Canal

arun · Post by **arun** » 17 Mar 2010 08:20

^^^ It is heartening to note that some in Pakistan’s Sindh province are not falling for Pakistan’s Punjab provinces’ ploy of passing of Punjab’s Water Gluttony as India’s “theft” of water.

Meanwhile in the Indian Express:

Jal Jihad a ploy to hide Pak Punjab stealing Sindh & Balochistan water

arun · Post by **arun** » 19 Mar 2010 19:18

Given that this was a meeting called by those of the Punjab province of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, no surprise on how the story unfolded.

After the obligatory smoke screen of India is stealing Pakistani water the true motive of the meeting surfaces. That motive being the foisting of dam projects like Kalabagh to feed Punjab’s water gluttony at the expense of the other provinces like Sindh.

This India is “stealing” Pakistani water rant is more and more coming across as a ploy by the Islamic Republic’s Punjab province to pilfer water of the other provinces.

I wish Punjab Senior Minister Raja Riaz ever success in getting his federal government to abrogate the Indus Water Treaty.

Punjab APC wants revision of water accord with India

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 19 Mar 2010 21:43

abhishek_sharma wrote:Pak-India water accord against country’s interests: Raja Riaz

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.as ... 010_pg7_28

The 1960’s water accord between Pakistan and India is against the interests of the country and the federal government, if required, will take the necessary steps to have it reviewed, Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) leader Raja Riaz said on Thursday. Talking at a press briefing after an all-parties conference on the water issue at Punjab Assembly, the minister said that being a minister of the Punjab government, he was against the water accord between Pakistan and India “because it had greatly damaged the country”. He said that India was building dams and reservoirs on the rivers that come in Pakistan’s jurisdiction. To a question about what steps the government would take to review the “flawed” accord, he said the federal government, if it felt necessary, might take steps to address the issue. To a question regarding the establishment of small dams, he said that 10 dams in Potohar area had been constructed so far while work on 12 more dams was under progress. He said the dams would become operational within the next two years. When asked about developments regarding the water issue between Punjab and Sindh, he said the matter would be resolved amicably, adding that both provinces were trying to reach a consensus. He said they were trying to reach a consensus, which would ensure that Punjab would accommodate Sindh whenever it needed water and vice versa. staff report

SSridharji,

A question!

What is the probability of some thing like the following to happen, and the possible consequences?

- Pakistan withdraws from IWT (no immediate change, because India cannot build dams overnight to divert western-river system waters)
- Pakistan with help from its 3.5 friends will ask for a new water treaty.
- India, under the "aman ki tamasha" program concedes a more profitable deal for pakis (hey we are not using this water anyway, so all the unused potential is available to the downstream partner; and we do that always in desh - when allocating water resources between states).
- India will stop allocating funds to new dams on western river sytems for sometime and Pakis will get support from their friends especially our eastern friend.
- On the other side, our eastern friend will build new dams on B'putra and divert the water to in-land dlagon
- When India objects, they will use the revised IWT as the basis and show a finger to India.

and our gleat leadel goes into histoly books with a noble plize...

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 19 Mar 2010 23:04

Before SS answers, let me take a shot at your question.
If Pakistan withdraws from IWT, there is no chance in hell that a new treaty would be signed anytime soon 3.5 or no 3.5 friends in picture.
I don't see Pakis getting anything from India except for Dossiers.
Pakistani's are fools (my apologies to fools), but RAPE is not going to shoot themselves in the foot when they are the biggest land owners. Whatever may happen, IWT is not going anywhere.

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 20 Mar 2010 04:47

RamaY wrote: - Pakistan withdraws from IWT (no immediate change, because India cannot build dams overnight to divert western-river system waters)
- Pakistan with help from its 3.5 friends will ask for a new water treaty.
- India, under the "aman ki tamasha" program concedes a more profitable deal for pakis (hey we are not using this water anyway, so all the unused potential is available to the downstream partner; and we do that always in desh - when allocating water resources between states).
- India will stop allocating funds to new dams on western river sytems for sometime and Pakis will get support from their friends especially our eastern friend.
- On the other side, our eastern friend will build new dams on B'putra and divert the water to in-land dlagon
- When India objects, they will use the revised IWT as the basis and show a finger to India.

and our gleat leadel goes into histoly books with a noble plize...

SSridhar-ji might have other interesting angles, but here is my take.

See, mango SDREs on the road dont organize themselves as a block. A few die in Mumbai, who the hell cares? GOI can sing A Monkey's asha tune. Similarly mango SDREs dont care about complicated things like 123 and liability bill.

But farmers in Punjab/Haryana/Rajasthan make a HUGE voting block. There are the issue of regional parties in the states, Akalis, BJP, INLD, and this soon will go the route of "Rich brahmins exploiting poor dalit farmers" and Mayawati behnji will win 100 more seats in the next Lok Sabha.

IWT is safe for now.

munna · Post by **munna** » 20 Mar 2010 05:05

Anujan wrote:
RamaY wrote: - Pakistan withdraws from IWT (no immediate change, because India cannot build dams overnight to divert western-river system waters)
- Pakistan with help from its 3.5 friends will ask for a new water treaty.
- India, under the "aman ki tamasha" program concedes a more profitable deal for pakis (hey we are not using this water anyway, so all the unused potential is available to the downstream partner; and we do that always in desh - when allocating water resources between states).
- India will stop allocating funds to new dams on western river sytems for sometime and Pakis will get support from their friends especially our eastern friend.
- On the other side, our eastern friend will build new dams on B'putra and divert the water to in-land dlagon
- When India objects, they will use the revised IWT as the basis and show a finger to India.

and our gleat leadel goes into histoly books with a noble plize...
SSridhar-ji might have other interesting angles, but here is my take.

See, mango SDREs on the road dont organize themselves as a block. A few die in Mumbai, who the hell cares? GOI can sing A Monkey's asha tune. Similarly mango SDREs dont care about complicated things like 123 and liability bill.

But farmers in Punjab/Haryana/Rajasthan make a HUGE voting block. There are the issue of regional parties in the states, Akalis, BJP, INLD, and this soon will go the route of "Rich brahmins exploiting poor dalit farmers" and Mayawati behnji will win 100 more seats in the next Lok Sabha.

IWT is safe for now.

I will answer this in the following way.

Lucknow being the former capital of Avadh and now UP has a tradition of sweet talk and politeness. The Lucknow way of conversation is laced with sugar and can be quite complicated for the first time audience. Carrying on-in Lucknow a polite way of asking someone a favour is to say "Kya main aapko Taqleef dey sakta hun?" in Lucknow-speak this is translated as "may I request a favour from you?" but the literal translation of this is "may I trouble you?"
Now the story goes like this-a Lucknawi gentleman was trying to board a bus of Haryana roadways to Chandigarh. He approached the conductor and asked "Kya main aapko Taqleef dey sakta hun?" and the conductor being a rustic Haryanawi retorted "De ke to dekh sa*le, haath pair tod dunga". The literal translation of conductor's reply being "Try to give me some taqleef and I will break your arms and legs". Anujan is right, IWT renegotiation has the potential to finish off political careers. The public opinion in the regions of Indus basin in India is not far removed from the conductor's. Any negotiations on IWT and god forbid if they happen will result in a "Jammu x 100000" agitation.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 20 Mar 2010 07:08

That is all reassuring.

But I am still worried with the indifference shown by our Bharatiyas w.r.t Indian interests in the past 7-8 years influenced by election-time subsidies, feudal corruption methods, and propaganda.

While IWT may cause 100 seat loss in the north, a good strategy in the south may compensate INC's electoral loss. Please note that the sothern states of TN, KA, AP, Maha, Orissa, and Kerala bring ~180 seats. Add Bihar, Bengal and other states which are not affected by IWT changes, you get the true picture.

I truly do not believe UP as a whole would react in a way that supports Indian Interests.

INC can withstand the pressure from Punjab, Haryana type states as they do not cause them loss of sleep due to thier religious affiliations. Please note the difference between how Punjab terrorism was handled and how JK terrorism is being handled.

munna · Post by **munna** » 20 Mar 2010 08:06

RamaY wrote:That is all reassuring.

While IWT may cause 100 seat loss in the north, a good strategy in the south may compensate INC's electoral loss. Please note that the sothern states of TN, KA, AP, Maha, Orissa, and Kerala bring ~180 seats. Add Bihar, Bengal and other states which are not affected by IWT changes, you get the true picture

Well its not about seats, like I said any change on IWT will affect Jammu, Punjab, HP, Haryana and Northern Rajasthan. Despite the much vaunted strength of army and center they were able to achieve zilch in case of Jammu and Gujjar agitations. Any threat to water will lead to agitations strong enough to disrupt food security and cause hyper inflation of food items, major loss of face to central government and reversal of electoral fortunes.

I truly do not believe UP as a whole would react in a way that supports Indian Interests

Too fragmented a polity!

INC can withstand the pressure from Punjab, Haryana type states as they do not cause them loss of sleep due to thier religious affiliations. Please note the difference between how Punjab terrorism was handled and how JK terrorism is being handled

The pressure will be from at least 5 states and its not about loss of sleep but about loss of H&D. Terrorism in Punjab for all purposes was not a popular movement because it was not completely backed by Sikhs (about 60% of Punjabi population) and not at all by the Hindus (35% of population), hence there is bound to be some difference of approach. However it is worth mentioning that a popular movement will be enough to disrupt the evening Scotch sessions of Dilli-Billis at IIC for a long time to come. IWT renegotiation is harakiri and INC is most welcome to commit it under MMS because I know the results of that

.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 20 Mar 2010 08:57

RamaYa
Congress might win in South but are they gonna move capital to Kanyakumari to run from the nice gentle folks from the above 5 states. Remember, the Danda in Indian flag practically belongs to these poeple. Kangressi wont survive a month after that, they will be sent to Pakistan with the water in same rivers. Not in thousand year they can even contemplate such abomination in ther dream knwing well they will forfeit their right to exist in India.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 20 Mar 2010 12:42

RamaY wrote:What is the probability of some thing like the following to happen, and the possible consequences?

- Pakistan withdraws from IWT (no immediate change, because India cannot build dams overnight to divert western-river system waters)

Let us remember that IWT is a multilateral treaty (not bilateral) involving India, Pakistan and IBRD. It was signed by Pandit Nahru, on behalf of India, FM Ayub Khan, on behalf of Pakistan and W.A.B. Iliff on behalf of IBRD. However, IBRD restricts itself to purposes specified in Articles V and X and Annexures F, G and H. IBRD is still involved in resolution of differences, though not directly. See later as to why this is an important point.

Article XII, Final Provisions, of the IWT states as follows:

(3) The provisions of this Treaty may from time to time be modified by a duly ratified treaty concluded for that purpose between the two Governments.
(4) The provisions of this Treaty, or the provisions of this Treaty as modified under the provisions of Paragraph (3), shall continue in force until terminated by a duly ratified treaty concluded for that purpose between the two Governments.

So, IWT allows both the parties to modify the existing Treaty and can only be terminated by a newly 'ratified' Treaty. There is therefore no provision of any party withdrawing unilaterally from the Treaty. In other words, the IWT does not have a provision for self-termination.

Of course, Pakistan may cite 'breaches by India of IWT provisions' to withdraw from the Treaty. But, for that it will have to have solid evidences and be prepared to take the matter to appropriate international arbitration. As of now, Pakistan has no proof of India breaching the Treaty even once, leave alone being a habitual offender whcih alone, IMHO, can form sufficient ground for Pakistan to seek extra-Treaty avenues. It will not be possible to take the matter to ICJ, the usual Pakistani fetish, for two reasons: one, the IWT itself has ample provisions for settlement of disputes and without exhausting those avenues, the ICJ may not even register the case and two, the ICJ may not be interested to take up the case after its previous ruling involving the Atlantique dispute between both these countries.

In the Atlantique shooting-down case, India successfully argued, among other things, that ICJ had no jurisdiction in matters pertaining to two members of the Commonwealth and that Independent India did not inherit any treaties that British India acceded to like the General Act of 1928.

Besides the above, India will strongly argue that the IWT, being a multilateral treaty, all the parties involved in the Treaty must also be parties to the case, a condition to which IBRD is not likely to subject itself to.

I do not therefore see any possibility of Pakistan taking the matter to any other arbitration. If Pakistan therefore withdraws from IWT, that should simply give India a free hand to go ahead with projects without referring them to Pakistan.

Pakistan must realize that a new and more favourable Treaty is impossible even from a dhimmi India. The existing Treaty is the best it has got. It must not therefore try to punch above its weight.

- Pakistan with help from its 3.5 friends will ask for a new water treaty.

It may not be a brand new Treaty, but a modified IWT to give more guarantees to Pakistan and place more restrictions on India. The Pakistani PIC has already revealed Pakistan's approach. Pakistan wants to modify the Treaty to ensure that India does not build too many hydroelectric projects and it uses generated power only within J&K (preferably Kashmir Valley). Besides, it may want to have a say in the management of catchment areas and glaciers that contribute waters to the 'western' rivers.

Of course, none of these can be agreed upon by India. But, India should be prepared to ward off pressure from the notorious 3½. It has been the constant and successful theme of Pakistan that Pakistan's behaviour is dictated by a threatening massive neighbour. The members of the 3½ have bought this argument repeatedly and tried to shape India's behaviour either through coercion or through dangling intangible carrots (which never materialized in the end).

We have to presume that they will once again try to get some concessions from India in favour of Pakistan as they have done in the past. The Home secretary's recent declaration that India will produce a White Paper on the water treaty and its implementation so far has to be seen in this context.

- India, under the "aman ki tamasha" program concedes a more profitable deal for pakis (hey we are not using this water anyway, so all the unused potential is available to the downstream partner; and we do that always in desh - when allocating water resources between states).

The only waters that India has not completely used are as follows:

Excess flood flows in the 'Eastern' rivers.
Entitlement for agricultural use on the 'Western' rivers, and
Entitlement for 'storage works' on the 'Western' rivers

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 20 Mar 2010 13:33

Bheem wrote:As per this thread, the eastern rivers are still discharging around 3 to 8 MAF to Pakistan due to floods (??) in monsoons(??) So are we process of building canals/dams to store this water or to divert this water to say Rajasthan, Haryana etc?? if nothing else to recharge the ground water table?

Bheem, sorry for the delayed response.

I am not too sure how much flood waters escapes to Pakistan. On the basis of over fifty years' record the mean flow in Indus River System (IRS) totalled 175 MAF on the eve of Partition of the Punjab in 1947. This comprised of 93 MAF including 27 of Kabul for Indus, 23 for Jhelum, 26 for Chenab, 6 for Ravi, 13 for Beas and 14 for Sutlej annually.

There are two reasons why we do not want any of our entitled waters to go to Pakistan. Jingos like us would like to inflict as much punishment as legally possible on that terrorist state. Secondly, we need waters ourselves, and enormous quantities of that. The latter point exercises Indian water managers also.

The escapages to Pakistan from the 'Eastern' rivers are probably well over and above the mean annual flow, especially because of the faster rate of glacial melting. Sometimes, we have to see technical feasibilities etc. to tap these waters. I am sure the water managers are well aware of these.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 21 Mar 2010 08:16

Thank you SSji, for the details.

Your response assumes a logical and lawful approach to problem solving by all parties involved. But we all know that the world doesnt work in that matter.

For example, how can US of A make a deal with a terrorist who planned and collaborated 11/26, while extraditing Mohd. Khalid Sheck from Pakistan? So it is law of mighty. That is what I am talking about.

It is all nice and reassuring to hear the possible response of Punjab, Haryana etc states w.r.t IWT, but these very states did very little when other aspects of their national interests are subdued by these very feudal-political-corrupt politicians. Punjab is yet to "electorally" punish the perpertrators of Sikh riots in 1984.

That is what concerns me. What is the probability of a nationalistc approach to solving IWT issue in a way that it brings Pakistan to its knees?

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 21 Mar 2010 14:28

Water Issue is Serious: Shehbaz Sharif

Addressing a ceremony on Saturday, he said India was not ready to hold a result-oriented dialogue with Pakistan and that water issue had become a serious problem.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 22 Mar 2010 12:49

Pakistani Punjabi farmers protest India's water aggression at Wagha Border

Thousands of farmers staged a protest against Indian water aggression at the Wahga border near Lahore and demanded of the government to raise the issue in the UN, a private TV channel reported on Sunday. The protesters, led by the Muttahida Kisan Mahaz, reached the zero line where they staged a protest against India for blocking the water of different Pakistani rivers. Activists of various non-governmental organisations (NGO) and political parties also participated in the protest to express solidarity with the farmers. The protesters also established protest camps against stoppage of water by India in violation of the 1960 Indus Water Treaty signed between India and Pakistan and also demanded the government to raise the issue in the UN. It is pertinent to mention here that the World Bank (then the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development) is also a signatory of the treaty as a third party.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 24 Mar 2010 09:35

The US to engage India & Pak on water issues

The US said on Monday it will engage Pakistan and India to help resolve tensions over the distribution of water between the two countries, as Washington wants the two South Asian neighbours to avoid any conflict over the lingering dispute.

“I think we need to work on this some and find ways to make sure that especially in the Pakistan-India case, we can help move things forward to an improved situation,” Under Secretary for Democracy and Global Affairs Maria Otero said at a US State Department briefing on the occasion of the World Water Day. “What we want to make sure that we can do is help countries avoid conflicts over water,” said the US diplomat.

“So the effort is to elevate the water issue in our diplomatic engagement with countries, to help states increase their own capacity to address these issues... [and] also find ways to increase the supply of water. So the issue is the recognition of water as a potential source of conflict in our elevated effort to address it with greater priority than we have in the past,” she added.

Asked if the Obama administration was specifically talking with India and Pakistan on issues related to the distribution of water, Otero said, “I think we’re beginning to do that. The role that the US will play in any kind of existing relationship between the two countries is one that has to be carefully focussed.”

When her attention was drawn to the fact that India is building dams on rivers flowing into Pakistan and that Pakistan is facing a severe water shortage, Otero said, “We’re clearly aware of the enormous importance of this fact... I think the message that we’re sending today is that the US is elevating the role that it seeks to play in issues related to water. Whether it will become the mediator in any particular conflict is not something that we’re prepared to say right now.”

Nihat · Post by **Nihat** » 24 Mar 2010 09:52

We should Issue a "Stay out of this"' statement immidiatly. Unkil should know its rightful place in India.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 24 Mar 2010 10:31

X-posting relevant portion of Abhishek_Sharma's post from TSP thread

Hillary Clinton's Interview With Moeed Pirzada of Dunya TV

http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2010/03/138930.htm

QUESTION: When I look at the list (inaudible), things like apart from security, we have economic development, we have agriculture, we have energy, which (inaudible) with me that all these things are very intimate and very closely linked with the issue of the water. And water, in the context of South Asia, between India and Pakistan is increasingly a transnational commodity, a transnational issue. Are we expecting the United States to play a more active and more robust diplomacy between India and Pakistan on the issue of water?

SECRETARY CLINTON: Well, I think the issues that you mentioned are all interconnected, and you can’t pull one out and say, well, is this now going to become international as opposed to what we can do within the context of our relationship to assist Pakistan.
Agriculture, water – they’re all connected. We think we can bring to the table technology, innovation. I announced a project that we are funding to help farmers in Pakistan update two wells so that they can get better irrigation from the water that is already there. We’re well aware that there is a 50-year-old agreement between Pakistan and India concerning water.

What we want to do is to help Pakistan make better use of the water that you do have. That’s going to have to be the first priority in countries including our own. Let’s see what we do to protect our aquifers. Let’s see what we do to be more efficient in the use of our water. Let’s see what we do to capture more rainwater; how do we actually use less of it to produce more crops? We think we have some ideas with our experts that we want to sit down and talk with your experts about and see where that goes.

QUESTION: Just – if I want to spend 30 seconds more on that, in the sense that what you mentioned is an internal management of the water resources, and I want to remind you that you have recently launched the Global Hunger and Food Security Initiative in which you identified that (inaudible) hunger is a strategic part of the U.S. foreign policy. So I wonder that – will you still be persuaded by the Indian argument that Pakistan and India are a bilateral relationship and U.S. cannot play an active mediation between them? Maybe water will change that perspective, that perception?

SECRETARY CLINTON: Well, usually, where there is an agreement, as there is between India and Pakistan on water, with mediation techniques, arbitration built in, it would seem sensible to look to what already exists to try to resolve any of the bilateral problems between India and Pakistan. But in the course of the strategic dialogue, what we want to do is focus on the problem. If the problem is water or agriculture or energy, without looking externally, as we do in our other strategic dialogues, when we have a strategic dialogue with Russia, it’s between the United States and Russia.

Now, Russia may have trouble with China or with another neighbor in Eastern Europe, but our strategic dialogue is between the two of us. And our strategic dialogue with Pakistan, which we are taking to the ministerial level at the highest level of civilian democratic leadership, is what we want to build and really put on a strong footing for the future.

Airavat · Post by **Airavat** » 25 Mar 2010 08:04

Water shortage to hit agriculture

Indus River System Authority (IRSA) official told Daily Times that water situation is going to worsen due to less rains in the country and water in major reservoirs particularly Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma stood at dead levels since more than the last two weeks.

Sources said till the end of March, no more rains across the country particularly in Punjab province is forecast, however reservoirs’ situation could better in the forthcoming month of June during the monsoon season.

Forthcoming month? March>> April>> May>> June.

And the monsoon season does not reach the Western Himalayas till July.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 25 Mar 2010 08:30

Airavat wrote:Forthcoming month? March>> April>> May>> June.

And the monsoon season does not reach the Western Himalayas till July.

Airavat, Pakistan is a semi-arid zone where average rainfall is 700 mm annually. The monsoon in Pakistan is not the same as it is in India. Pakistan depends on the glacial melts for its water.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 25 Mar 2010 10:16

Does the monsoon rechrage the glaciation in the western Himalayas??

Airavat · Post by **Airavat** » 26 Mar 2010 05:28

SSridhar wrote:The monsoon in Pakistan is not the same as it is in India. Pakistan depends on the glacial melts for its water.

Not the monsoon over Pakistan but over the Western Himalayas (J&K and Himachal), which feeds the Punjab rivers. That is why the IRSA person in the quoted article was putting all his hopes on the "forthcoming" monsoon to fill up the reservoirs.