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Prime Minister Vladimir Putin goes to New Delhi on Thursday for a two-day visit, the second top-level Russian-Indian meeting in the past four months.
However, many experts believe that despite the two countries' successful economic cooperation, especially in the defense sector, political interaction between the two potential strategic partners leaves much to be desired.
Putin's visit aims to resolve a major sticking point in bilateral relations: the plan to sign at long last an agreement on the price of Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier upgrade and a related sales contract for 29 MiG-29K fighter jets. Russia and India will set up a joint venture to design a multi-use transport plane and sign a feasibility report on the planned fifth-generation fighter. Reports also say the two countries will sign a contract to build four generating units for the Kudankulam nuclear power plant in southern India.
Although Russian-Indian military technical and nuclear cooperation has seen recent successes, analysts say that the general level of relations leaves much to be desired. "Mutual trade will not exceed $10 billion, which is laughable compared to India's trade with China or the United States," said Tatyana Shaumyan, head of the Indian studies center at Russia's Institute of Oriental Studies. "If we are to see our relations develop, we need to shed the 'USSR syndrome' and stop looking down on India. The Indians can also help us in the high-technology sector," she added.
Political cooperation is also a problem. "Although Russia and India have shared positions on many global issues, there has been no tangible joint action so far. True, there is the BRIC format, and the so called Russia-India-China triangle, which involve regular meetings, but these acronyms still lack real content," she said.
Vinay Shukla, head of the Press Trust of India news agency's Moscow bureau, recalls: "Ten years ago, in the fall of 2000, Vladimir Putin signed a strategic partnership declaration in Delhi. But the partnership was never built: trade never exceeded $3-4 billion. Despite regular summits and interaction through international forums, political relations between Russia and India stagnated. The Kremlin, which was bathing in petrodollars, still viewed India largely as a customer for the Russian defense industry. The Admiral Gorshkov case, which provoked an erosion of political trust, was a good lesson for India."
In his opinion, Putin now has a second chance to evaluate India's economic potential and to stop seeing the country exclusively as a customer for Russian arms and military equipment.
As the visiting Russian Premier Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh celebrate the deepening of the Indo-Russian bilateral relationship this week with a range of impressive agreements on defence and nuclear cooperation, China will be the ghost in the room.
The Indo-Russian strategic discourse has been dominated by the nitty gritty of bilateral cooperation and an abstract notion of “promoting multipolarity” during the last decade and a half. As a world of many powers dawns, India and Russia have their task cut out in Asia.
Mr. Putin also advised a section of Indian business and strategic community to be “realistic'' in its attitude towards Pakistan and take into consideration the action taken by Islamabad against some militant organisations operating along its border with Afghanistan.
Indian diplomacy has singularly failed to convince the Russians about the deception in Pakistani actions.
Cannot say that comes as a complete surprise. In an article in the run up to Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s visit to India, former Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal had pointed out that Russia is hesitant in talking about the involvement of Pakistani terrorist groups in attacks targeting India:
Russia has shown reluctance to wade into India-Pakistan issues publicly. While it condemns terrorist attacks against India, it is less frontal than even the US about the involvement of Pakistan-based terror groups in such attacks. It may not want to create any misunderstanding with the US on the India-Pakistan issue by appearing to encourage a tougher Indian response to Pakistani provocations.
That’s not the only area where Russia is not in alignment with India. There is also a divergence with regards to PR China:
India and Russia do not have a common vision on China. Can they develop one on the essentials even as both countries continue to engage China, as they should? Not in the foreseeable future because of Russia’s strategic need of China to counter western pressures on it.
On the minds of both parties, analysts said, was a nation not present at the signing. "China will be the ghost in the room," wrote analyst C. Raja Mohan in an opinion piece this week in the Indian Express.
In addition to reaping hefty profits from the bulky arms sales to India, Putin's visit to India serves to achieve multiple strategic objectives that are crucial to reconfiguring the regional dynamics, Li Xing, a renowned expert on Russia at Beijing Normal University, told the Global Times.
"Russia is a nation that excels in devising and implementing Great Power politics," Li noted. "India has pursued boosting its military strength and aspires to command a predominant power in the India Ocean. Russia has harnessed India's ambition to contain China. The boosted links with India will pose geo-strategic constraint to China's phenomenally expanding regional clout.
"The individual needs have enhanced ties between the countries."
Xia Yishan, a researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, noted that "The US' growing supply of advanced weapons to India has constantly eroded Russia's traditional close relations with India. The steadily increased economic cooperation and political support between the US and India has progressively tilted India's foreign policy toward the US."
"Putin's visit will heighten military and strategic cooperation, subsequently checking the US influence in the Indian Ocean to form a relatively balanced regime among major powers," Xia added.
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But the strategic partnership remains strong, despite Russian dismay about the US-India tango. Moscow shares New Delhi’s concerns on terrorism. The Kremlin, scarred from Chechnya, worries that a radicalised Afghanistan or Pakistan could spread extremism to Russia’s Central Asian underbelly. Secondly, like Washington, Moscow too has deep concerns about the rise of China; India and Russia compare and discuss their perspectives on China. Finally, Moscow would like a powerful Indian Navy patrolling the Indian Ocean, leaving lesser space for the US and Chinese navies.
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Russia’s readiness to supply India strategic platforms and technology that no other country will part with --- such as a nuclear submarine on lease and assistance in designing an Indian nuclear submarine and underwater-launched missiles --- maintains for that country a niche in a lucrative strategic sphere.
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In the emerging field of joint aircraft development, the progress is slower than anticipated. It had been hoped that a $600 million joint venture would be set up during Putin’s visit, between India’s Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) and Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC), to develop a Medium Transport Aircraft (MTA) for the Russian and Indian Air Forces to transport 18.5 tonne payloads over 2500 kilometres. This expectation was belied, and Business Standard has learned that both sides continue to bargain hard in ongoing negotiations.
Also mired in negotiations is the proposed HAL-UAC joint venture to develop and manufacture 250 fifth-generation fighters each for the Russian and Indian Air Forces.
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Despite these initiatives, Indian officials complain bitterly that Russian officials, particularly in the important middle rung, are simply not interested in implementing Vladimir Putin’s vision of a close Russia-India relationship.
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“The relationship was far better during the Soviet era, because when a leader declared something, it was implemented faithfully by officials down the chain”, said a top-ranking government official to Business Standard. “But today, Putin’s genuine warmth is simply not translated into action.”
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“Getting a business visa, even for an industrial head like Ratan Tata, involves delays and all sorts of procedural requirements; and Moscow does absolutely nothing to ease that”, says a senior official in the Prime Minister’s Office. “Russian officials are focused entirely on Europe and America. They simply don’t see India as a priority.”
putnanja wrote:[ “Russian officials are focused entirely on Europe and America. They simply don’t see India as a priority.”
One can sense this when dealing with folks there - For the >35 types, India does not exist. Russia's eyes are firmly focussed westward!
Let us face it - however desirable, current reality is the relationship is practically confined to that of an arms and uranium buyer - seller.
Hindu has a good take on the visit - do not see it posted here yet -Rediscovering Russia
From that editorial -
Broadly speaking, New Delhi and Moscow have both tended to calibrate the bilateral thermostat with an eye on the temperature in Washington.
Though the Russian side today lacks the same narrow motivation for embracing India more tightly — after all, Mr. Obama has tried to repair relations with Moscow — Vladimir Putin, a strong leader with a clear strategic vision, realises it is important for Russia to expand the ambit of its cooperation with India
The Defense Ministry has now signed contracts for the purchase of 32 Su-34 Fullback advanced fighter-bombers to be delivered by 2013, 48 Su-35 Flanker-E fighters by 2015, 12 Su-27SM Flanker-B Mod. 1 fighters by 2011, 4 Su-30M2 Flanker-C planes by 2011 and 12 Su-25UBM Frogfoot combat trainers.
This year, the Defense Ministry intends to sign a contract for the delivery of 26 MiG-29K Fulcrum-D fighters by 2015. Additional contracts for the delivery of at least 80 Su-34s and 24-48 Su-35s are expected to be signed. In all, the Russian Air Force is to receive 240-260 new aircraft of these types.
It is hard to say much about the specifications of another 100-110 aircraft, due to be manufactured primarily after 2015. They will probably include 25-30 MiG-35 fighters, another 12-16 Su-30 combat trainers for Su-35 squadrons and 40-60 Sukhoi T-50 PAK FA (Advanced Frontline Aviation Aircraft System) fifth-generation fighters. The T-50's subsequent official designation remains unclear.
He has not talked about US and China coming together for super fusion.
Superfusion: How China and America Became One Economy and Why the World's Prosperity Depends on It
~ Zachary Karabell (Author)
This is the triumph card for US
With the Indo-US reprocessing pact in its last lap and the Prime Minister readying to travel to Washington DC to attend US President Barack Obama’s nuclear summit, Delhi perhaps felt the time was not ripe to publicise nuclear cooperation with the Russians.
In fact, at the Putin visit, agreements on the fifth-generation fighter aircraft, the multi-role transport aircraft also did not see the light of day. And when Russia offered that Glonass, the Russian global positioning system, be extended to military signals for Indian use, Delhi demurred. That deal was not signed either, although the Indian side promised to do so later.
On March 12, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin visited India for the fifth time, with the previous four when he was president. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was in Moscow last December as part of what has become an annual dialogue taking place each winter. Since 2000, either Putin is visiting or receiving Manmohan in Moscow.
At least 40 people have been killed and scores more injured as two explosions ripped through the Moscow metro at the height of rush hour this morning.
The first blast at the Lubyanka station in central Moscow happened at 0756 (0356 GMT) killing 22 people.
The headquarters of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), successor to the Soviet-era KGB, is located above the station which is just yards away the Kremlin.
The second explosion happened 45 minutes later at Park Kultury at 0838 (0438 GMT), killing at least 12 more people. "There are killed and injured," a security source said.
No group immediately took responsibility for the blasts but suspicion is likely to fall on Chechen militants and other groups from Russia's North Caucasus, where Moscow is fighting a growing Islamist insurgency.
Russian emergencies ministry spokeswoman Irina Andrianova said the first explosion happened as a metro train stopped at the station as it was packed with peak hour commuters.
"The blast hit the second carriage of a metro train that stopped at Lubyanka," she said. Commuters were killed both on the platform and in the carriage she said, adding that at least 10 people were wounded.
The second blast also took place in a train carriage while it was stationary at the platform, she added.
I think that would be surprising as due to the crackdown I think it would be harder for foreign terrorists to be trained in TSP as compared to local ones.
I don't think one can rule out them being trained in Russia.
Purush wrote:Similar to the 2006 Mumbai metro blasts I think.
How long until it emerges that the Chechen/XYZ terrorists were trained in pukiland?
Bad news ... in the past the Chechens were supported by oligarchs like Berezovsky operating out of London. Hope the UKstanis are no longer promoting / tolerating such activity.
Two female suicide bombers blew themselves up Monday in twin attacks on Moscow subway stations jam-packed with rush-hour passengers, killing at least 37 people and wounding 65, officials said. They blamed the carnage on rebels from the Caucasus region.
This attack is a direct blow to Putin. "Black widows" who might be responsible to this attack are widows/sisters of those who died in Chechen attack. Putin was the architect.
JMT
Altair wrote:This attack is a direct blow to Putin. "Black widows" who might be responsible to this attack are widows/sisters of those who died in Chechen attack. Putin was the architect.
JMT
If Garry Kasparov were PM of Russia and not one Chechen terrorist had died, there would still be suicide bombings on the metro. Islamist grievances are never ending.
Russia [ Images ], China, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan have been closely monitoring the activities of various pro-Al Qaeda groups operating in Xinjiang, the Central Asian Republics, Chechnya and Dagestan in Russia.Recent reports indicate that the Uzbecks, Chechens and Uighurs trained in Al Qaeda [ Images ] training camps in North Waziristan have started moving towards their home bases to step up jihad against those countries and to disrupt the movement of logistic supply to the US and other NATO troops.It is the assessment of well-informed Pakistani police sources in the Pashtun areas that during the last two weeks there has been a decrease in the activities of the Tehrik-e-Taliban [ Images ] Pakistan in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan because trained TTP elements have been moving into Afghanistan to help the Afghan Taliban in its operations against the US-UK offensive in the Helmand province of Afghanistan.The TTP cadres are going in replacement of the Uighurs, Uzbeks and Chechens who are being moved towards Central Asia, Xinjiang and Chechnya. This also suits the Pakistan Army [ Images ] since it relieves pressure on it. An upsurge in acts of terrorism in this region is apprehended. Russia cannot afford to be complacent over the situation in Chechnya and Dagestan.As the fighting in Afghanistan escalates, reprisal attacks by Al Qaeda and related terror outfits in areas such as South-East, South and Central Asia and in the Muslim majority regions of Russia is a possibility to be reckoned with. CNN has reported that a website associated with Chechen separatists has claimed responsibility for the two explosions in two Moscow [ Images ] subway stations on Monday which resulted in the death of at least 37 persons.While the authenticity of the claim is yet to be established, jihadi terrorists from Chechnya trained in the past by Al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban had till 2004 exhibited a capability for mass casualty suicide or suicidal terrorism in the heart of Moscow.
Sad as they are, they must be a reminder to Herr Putin that if you flirt with Pakbarians, Saudi terrorists and Iranian mullahs simply to cock a snook at Unkil, there is a price to pay.
It is sad, yet not nearly on the same level of the violence and brutality Chechens have suffered for the past 200 years. Unfortunately this will only increase the costs on Chechen civilians. It is just like the Tamils in SL.
Prem wrote:Al Qeada-backed Chechen separatists may have been behind the Moscow suicide blasts. Security expert B Raman examines the surge in terror in Central Asia. http://news.rediff.com/column/2010/mar/ ... -raman.htm
What is this "Al Qeada-backed Chechen separatists" crap? B.Raman is getting stale.
Suppiah wrote:Sad as they are, they must be a reminder to Herr Putin that if you flirt with Pakbarians, Saudi terrorists and Iranian mullahs simply to cock a snook at Unkil, there is a price to pay.
But if Unkil flirts with Chechen terrorists, or gives billions to TSPA despite LeT (Pakbarians), just to cock a snook at Russia and India, what price does he pay?
"The two suicide bombings that hit the Moscow metro March 29 could have been organized with support from abroad, according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, RIA Novosti reported. Speaking during a visit to Canada, Lavrov said that Russia has ruled nothing out and that Moscow is well aware of the tribal areas in Pakistan and Afghanistan where international militants have found safe haven. Lavrov said many attacks are planned in that area, but also in other countries, and that, “Sometimes, the trail leads to Caucasus.”
Gerard wrote:If Garry Kasparov were PM of Russia and not one Chechen terrorist had died, there would still be suicide bombings on the metro. Islamist grievances are never ending.
I think Pakistan based Islamists grievances would be more appropriate. I sincerely hope that this attack has its genesis in Pakistan. Putin is the guy who carries a sledge hammer up his sleeve. So, whether its a paki fly or a paki rat its fate is certain. I am just waiting to see one bit of information which ties the attack to Pakistan.
