Philip wrote:Kartik,I'v always advocated for a strong indigenous defence industry.Unfortunately,the LCA has been delayed fro so long that it is in serious dange of ebcoming obsolete when perfected in a MK-2 version,which has yet to se the light of day with the new engine not yet selected.Therefore,how can a MK-1 version which has an underpowered engine especially at sea level dramatically morph into a Naval LCA that will suffice for the IN?
Let me get this straight- you say you support indigenisation, but then you show absolutely no patience in what is essentially a very high technology domain? This is not something where you start pouring in money and overnight results are there for you to see, unless you do it the Pakistani way where overnight you acquire a capability by purchasing it from someone else and painting it yourself and calling it some indigenous name..Countries that have established themselves as global arms developers are those that have very sound, strong scientific and industrial bases and have had strong government support for decades. You will see results as more experience is gained, and a larger research, scientific and engineering base is built up. I'm not saying that they're not delayed at times, but anyone who would try to compare the timelines for some European and American fighter projects and compare them to the ACTUAL Tejas timelines would find that the difference is not great.
If you support indigenisation, you won't keep harping on delays like its an affliction only native to Indians. Where is the same perspective on the Gorshkov ? What about the fact that the IN is getting a second-hand carrier, one that never did well in Russian service, one that is delayed by well over 5 years, one whose price is more than TWICE what it was originally supposed to be (a classic bait and switch trick, since there is no way on earth that the GoI would've gone for a second-hand Gorshkov if the price was originally said to be $2.3 billion), around the same time that our own IAC-1 will enter service ? Why have we not seen a single post of yours cribbing about that ? Your silence on that while repeatedly posting on the Tejas, always dwelling on the negative aspects does not indicate that you want to support indigenisation.
the MiG-21Bison upgrade was delayed by the Russians as well (and they promptly blamed Indian DRDO agencies who had to develop some components for the upgrade), the MKI program suffered some delays, the MiG-29K program suffered a 1 year delay, when the MiG-29K isn't even a brand-new aircraft and most elements that went into it were in existence in some form or other.
Where was your crib on the Sea Dragon upgrade that ended up performing so far below par that the IN refused to take delivery of its Il-38SDs rather preferring to leave them in Russia till the issues were sorted out ? All this while the IN's MPA assets were precariously low in number. Its only now that we're hearing that all issues are sorted out and they are ready to be taken into service.
And pray, tell me what makes the LCA Mk1 obsolete? Fine, its not yet met some Air Staff Requirements as some journos claim. But do you know what those performance requirements are to claim it will be obsolete ? How can you say that a fighter whose airframe is more advanced than that of the MiG-29K that we're inducting, whose avionics are derived from the Su-30MKI, Jaguar DARIN-II and MiG-27 upgrades and whose internal EW system is going to be the most advanced of all current IAF fighters, will be obsolete by 2014-15 ? It will enter service with an Elbit DASH HMDS. How many IAF fighters actually have a HMDS ? The answer is zero. The only thing they have are Helmet Mounted Sights that belong to 1-2 generations ago.
Regarding the N-LCA and the Tejas Mk2, well lets be clear on one thing- the IN doesn't require carrier borne fighters right now. Any delay, while embarrassing, isn't critical to the IN's well being. By the time that the IAC-1 is ready, clears trials, and enters service, the N-LCA Mk2 will be in advanced flight testing unless something untoward happens. To cater to that, the IN has already ordered a second batch of MiG-29Ks. So why the pessimism and cribbing against the N-LCA when carrier-borne fighters are the last of the IN's worry ?? Wait for more details to emerge after the N-LCA is revealed and then see how things go instead of predicting its failure from so early on on such specious grounds.
Actually, I want you to find one feature that will be standard on the top-of-the-line IAF fighters of 2014-15, the MiG-29 UPG, Mirage-2000-5 and Su-30MKI (non-MLU, since we won't have any by then) that won't be there on the Tejas Mk1 and thereby make it vulnerable to becoming obsolete by the time the Mk2 enters service. I won't even include the MiG-27UPG and Jag DARIN-II-III since they don't fit in the same league and aren't multi-role anyway. Keep in mind that we'll see the MiG-29UPG, Mirage-2000-5 last till 2020-25 so if the LCA Mk1 can compare well with these, then your argument about the LCA Mk1 becoming obsolete basically flies out the window. I'll be waiting to see your answer on that.
You have in the past actually suggested that the Jaguar line be re-opened after the 37 units the IAF ordered to replace some of the MiG-23s that were retiring. What could be more illustrative of your prejudiced view against indigenous products ? That you would rather see a fighter that belongs to an earlier generation enter service even today, just to fill numbers, ignoring the fact that it is not close to being multi-role due to its low-level strike optimised design, one that is known for also being UNDER-POWERED in certain flight regimes.
This isn't meant to be a knock on the Jag, which is a fine aircraft for its role of lo-lo penetration, and has served the IAF well, but the double standards become apparent. Here we have you recommending buying new Jaguars when the IAF and Omani AF are the only two operators left in the world, while consistently cursing certain MRCA candidates claiming that they're being retired by their parent air forces, calling them 1970s designs, and what not (we know you do that only because of their American pedigree). Where is the post cribbing about one under-powered aircraft whose re-engineing program was so hyped (the Honeywell vs Rolls competition), and yet is nowhere near being decided?
The fact that there are high stakes at play here for foreign companies and arms dealers become obvious when one takes into account that these negative press reports mostly concern indigenous projects. Where is the IAF's "anonymous source" leaking statements to the press saying that the Jag is under-powered and fails to meet certain requirements for certain mission profiles ? IAF pilots will state this to Western magazines, knowing it won't become a sensational media story making the fighter out to be some leper, but not to desi journos because after all it’s imported maal that have been in service for years now. The IAF has been making do with far less flexible and capable aircraft like the Jag and MiG-27 and intends to continue doing so for another decade and your crib is about the LCA Mk1 becoming obsolete !? Please, give me a break. Even with its F-404 IN20 engine, the LCA will fly loops around these 2 jets. Even the MiG-21 Bison is outclassed by the Tejas but the Bison won't be around much longer when the Tejas enters service, so the point is moot.
Moreover,in the naval context,a twin-engined aircraft is far preferable because of the safety factor (twin engines),which is why most naval strike fighters today have twin engines (F-18,Rafale,SU-33,MIG-29K,F-14 now retired).Land based aircraft if they have engine problems do have the possibility of returning to base,another airstrip if possible,which is impossible for naval aircraft where the pilots have to eject.The increasing range and lethality of modern anti-ship missiles have dramatically increased the radius of action and endurance time of naval air defence fighters.It is only navies that operate small carriers who have limitations of space on deck and hangars who are considering using smaller light fighters.However,studies by major carrier navies have determined that to be relevant,the minimum size of carriers should be around 55-60,000t ,which size enables them to carry a decent number of aircraft,UAVs and helos and conduct simultaneous launch and recovery of aircraft.
Maybe you should make these points to the USN and RN, which are planning on inducting single engined F-35s. They figure that the smaller F-35 makes a better candidate for a naval fighter than the uber-fighter F-22. And while your points on the debate between single and twin-engined fighters are relevant, the fact is that it’s not as clear cut a choice today as it was in earlier decades. Fighters with single engines as reliable as the F-404 are not as prone to crashes due to engine trouble as the MiG-23 was. Just compare the attrition rate of the MiG-23 at its retirement (total hours in IAF service exceeding 1,00,000 hours) with that of the worldwide Gripen fleet (total fleet hours exceeding 1,30,000 hours) to see the reliability of the F-404. Every acquisition decision is a trade-off, every fighter design is a trade-off and a compromise in some ways.
If you have decided on a certain weight for your carrier for various reasons (neither of the IN's first 2 carriers are 55,000 or 60,000 tonnes displacement), then you cannot carry a large number of medium-sized twin-engined fighters. A mix of the two (like the French do now) allows more to be carried on-board and the cost of operations, maintenance and support are lower for a single-engined fighter anywhere in service. The N-LCA was originally concieved by the IN, it wasn't the result of a sales effort by the ADA. The IN approached them for a Sea Harrier replacement and the N-LCA was born. Besides, if the N-LCA being single-engined was its biggest vice then what on earth is the Sea Gripen being sent an RFI for?
I've stated if you read my posts carefully,that ther appears to be vesed interests who do not want the LCA to succeed by deliberately delaying vital decisions such as the engine choice for MK-2.There is a red line beyond which no service,IAF or IN will want an aircraft as they have to have in their inventory the rquired numbers and capability for conducting their respective responsibilituies.If you hear of how thr project has been treated like "the second wife's child" by the entire establishment,from hard sources on the inside, it is most depressing.A knowledgable soul in private industry,which produces a number of defence items,said that they (private industry) were unwilling to invest large sums of money into defence R&D primarily because of the uncertainity in getting a large order from the MOD.They oftenn hoped for orders only to see at the last moment orders placed abroad.Some time ago a JV with BAE and an Indian major was shopt down by the GOI.At that level he said,"decisions are taken on a PM to PM basis",where the "national interest" prevails over the "service interest",and he "nationa interest" is known only to the PM and ruling tribe of the day!
I don't crib about politics and politicians in India if I can help it because its useless as nothing will change. But I do agree with your points here that there are vested interests at work in India and abroad who would dearly like to see indigenous programs fail because of the size of the market that they will stand to lose if they don't. All the more reason to support such programs despite the birth pangs because public perception is so badly tainted by planted news stories, and genuine reports of issues, howsoever minor are so blown out of proportion, its sad. Like the news-stories on the excess weight on the N-LCA and the requirement to seek outside help to resolve it. They don't require consultants to sit and work on the weight issues and resolve it for them as well- they simply need them to get insights based on experience on some key points, which will influence what path will be taken to reduce weight. the hope is that the external consultant will point them in the right direction and in that way, help reduce the effort that would otherwise be put in to resolve the issue.
My biggest crib is that there is such a lack of awareness of the sheer magnitude of the project and the primary reason is our media. Most are not technically educated and cannot appreciate the technical details. The difference in the quality of articles written by our media and those that appear in Western and Russian aerospace magazines is stark, to say the least, but these jokers are the first to claim that Indian defence products and technology is not on par with the West or Russia. If only they even put a mirror to themselves. Even a guy like Ajai Shukla, while being earnest, lacks the kind of technical understanding that would make him a writer on par with them. Shiv Aroor posts great pictures and brings the latest news, but when he actually covers something, his limitations become clear. I would simply compare the Flight International article on the flight test of the Gripen with the video report that he presented. The Flight International article (while being written by a former Test Pilot) was low on rhetoric and high on details. Shiv Aroor's report was like a 10th standard boy being given a joy-ride. And the coverage at Vayu-Shakti 2010 with his non-stop "unabashed" macho talk, etc. That lady, Suman Sharma, she exposes her knowledge when she puts a caption on a Surya Kiran image saying they're using afterburners. Then she talks about how the MiG-29K is a 7G fighter so that "it is safe"..she doesn't bother to ask why its so, what does the person mean by "safe". The finer details, when disclosed to these people, slip by these guys and consequently people fail to grasp the research, the tedium, the hard work, the effort that goes into these high-tech gadgets.
Meanwhile,the Greeks and Germans have come to an agreement about the supply of German U-boats.The first will now be sold to a foreign operator.The IN has a strong chance here to evaluate the sub and consider it for the IN as a type that can replace the older U-209s in service.Pak was earllier trying v.hard to acquire German U-214 AIP subs but the Germans refused for fear of antagonising India and Pak's terrorist credentials.We should seriously evaluate replacing our existing U-boats with newer AIP U-214s ,so that the German line of contemporary sub tech remains with the IN and is not lost forever.These subs can then be evaluated against the Scopenes and even Amurs with Brahmos,which logically should replace the Kilo class.From these thre strains of forign sub-tech.,one or two indigenous conventional AIP sub designs can be drawn up with the IN's special requirements foeremost (we will need subs both for littoral hunter-killer ops and long range blue-water ops) apartf rom SSBNs and SSGNs for global oceanic opeations.
the U-209s themselves are very quiet. I had once written about my colleague who served on a US Nuclear submarine who was part of an exercise conducted with the Argentine Navy, where their U-209 came well within torpedo range of a US aircraft carrier before it surfaced and announced its presence. Goes to show that even with the top-notch submarine detection equipment, aircraft carriers are very vulnerable to a silent diesel electric submarine. This is the one area where the IN is sorely lacking and it should concentrate more on that rather than a third line of fighters for IAC-2 which is still far away.