Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP), Feb. 26, 2010

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 06 Apr 2010 08:44

Joseph wrote: Why is India seen (by Pakistan) as more vulnerable to US pressure than Pakistan?

No. India is not seen by Pakistan as being much more vulnerable to US pressure. The premise is faulty and extrapolations from that premise will all be faulty.

Pakistan sees itself as vulnerable to US pressure and believes that the US favors India.

Indians on the other hand believe exactly what you have stated:

Pakistan has gotten much more than India has gotten over the decades from the U.S.

Indians blame the US for that.

So the US finds itself in a situation where it is blamed by both India AND Pakistan for favoring the other nation. The tendency to do an == must be tempting for the US.

As I see it:

India has no option than to tell the US that it is helping Pakistan and that help is a problem for us
Pakistan sees it as an attractive option to tell the US that it is favoring India and that Pakistan needs much more help to solve its problems
But without US aid - Pakistan will sink
India has managed without US aid, so it is Pakistan that is more vulnerable.
The US realises that Pakistan is vulnerable and tries to "redress the balance"
Taking Pakistan down is useful for India
Taking the US down will help take Pakistan down
Taking India down is useful for Pakistan
Taking the US down is not going to help Pakistan
Pakistan's survival is linked to the power of the US
India's survival is not linked to the power of the US. India's power is undermined by US power as long as Pakistan is aided
Therefore Pakistanis find it convenient to work for US interests
The US is happy to have the Paki army whore working for its interests as long as the US is safer and balls to India

negi · Post by **negi** » 06 Apr 2010 08:45

Ramana saar need ICBMs with MIRV capability asap , that should go a long way in alleviating Unkil's pressure on India as far as our moves in sub continent are concerned. All this mumbo jumbo about economically resurgent India and other crap makes no sense , China and the great Bear were no economic superpowers (latter still isn't) but they long back had demonstrated and deployed a capability to strike Unkil if push came to shove .

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 06 Apr 2010 08:45

Now I know that the "shoabania wedding" is off limits on this thread. But, this story has more to do with the porki level of business sense. Porki Traders Threaten to Set Indian Goods on Fire. Why, you ask? Because they can.

Traders urge govt to take notice of Shoaib humiliation

Memon warned that Indian goods would be boycotted at trade centers if any action was taken against the cricketer. Otherwise, Indian goods available at trade centers would be set on fire, angry Memon said.

So the porkis will set only those Indian goods on fire that are found at trade centers, hence, are free. In other words, why set something on fire which has been paid for.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 06 Apr 2010 08:47

They should do it with Bollywood movies

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 06 Apr 2010 08:52

So, why should the pakis get civil nuclear technology? Because it qualifies!! And, in case you are eager to know, here's how:

Pakistan has more than 35 years experience of operating nuclear power plants, highly trained manpower and a well-established safety and security culture. And as such, it fully qualifies for equal participation in the civil nuclear cooperation at the international level.

If that doesn't sell, the porkis should next time try threats of impending doom.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 06 Apr 2010 09:00

deleted and posted in India US thread

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 06 Apr 2010 09:01

Paki cricketer caught cheating. What else is new, you ask? Wait, this is ain't the whole story. Read on...

Cricketer caught cheating in 9th exam

As many as four candidates including a cricketer, Nasir Jamshed, who had played for Pakistan, were caught cheating during ongoing Secondary School Certificate (Class 9th) annual examination Monday.

According to cricinfo.com, Nasir Jamshed had so far played 12 ODIs with 353 runs (74 highest). It added Jamshed was also part of the Pakistan U-19 squad that defended its title in 2006,

So, a 9th grade kid is usually, what, 14 or 15 years old. And, in 2006, he would have been 10 or 11. Did he play for the land of pious and bold when he was 10 or 11? Doubtful. If he was 18 or 19 in 2006 to play for U-19, he must be 23 or 24 today. In 9th grade. Something black in the lentils saar. Go figure!!

Carl_T · Post by **Carl_T** » 06 Apr 2010 09:18

He is a bright prospect though. I don't think it is that uncommon to fail for these elite players at least in football, eg. I believe David Beckham didn't pass 10th.

ArmenT · Post by **ArmenT** » 06 Apr 2010 09:21

Wikipedia says Nasir Jamshed was born December 6, 1989. Which means he's 20+ right now and taking a 9th grade exam. He's well on his way to becoming what we used to call in college "a tenured student" i.e. someone who takes ten years to pass a four year course

.

Speaking of sports personalities and academics, Beckham has some good company. I'm pretty sure Sachin Tendulkar flunked 12th math, but he graduated during the second attempt, and unlike the paki, there was no cheating involved.

archan · Post by **archan** » 06 Apr 2010 10:07

Acharya wrote:
ramana wrote:All this is nice but what are India's options?
One strong option

It is probably too much to ask from you, but I still ask you to put some substance in your posts, if you can. If you cannot, I suggest keeping away from that "post reply" button. I will not be tolerating this for too long.

Joseph · Post by **Joseph** » 06 Apr 2010 10:10

shiv wrote:
Joseph wrote: Why is India seen (by Pakistan) as more vulnerable to US pressure than Pakistan?
No. India is not seen by Pakistan as being much more vulnerable to US pressure. The premise is faulty and extrapolations from that premise will all be faulty.

Pakistan sees itself as vulnerable to US pressure and believes that the US favors India.

Indians on the other hand believe exactly what you have stated:
Pakistan has gotten much more than India has gotten over the decades from the U.S.
Indians blame the US for that.

In 1971, the U.S. helped West Pakistan (by telling India to ease up), yet Pakistan shows no appreciation for that.

But what can the Pakistanis point to as an example of U.S. favoring India over Pakistan?

Even if the U.S. told India to settle Kashmir entirely in favor of Pakistan, do the Pakistanis actually think that India would bow and do as the U.S. asked?

If Pakistan thinks that the failure of the U.S. in helping it gain its desired outcome in regards to Kashmir (by any means possible) is proof of India being favored, then Pakistan will continue to harbor the delusion of India being favored. The U.S. hasn't shown the inclination over the decades to force anything in regards to Kashmir (as Pakistan wants it to do) with India and Pakistan continues to bleat about it.

The other POV is that Pakistan recognizes that the U.S. has minimal influence over India and it makes impossible demands of India (via the U.S.) just so they can use that as excuse to not meet the demands made upon it (Pakistan) by the U.S.

shiv wrote: So the US finds itself in a situation where it is blamed by both India AND Pakistan for favoring the other nation. The tendency to do an == must be tempting for the US.

As I see it:

India has no option than to tell the US that it is helping Pakistan and that help is a problem for us

Pakistan sees it as an attractive option to tell the US that it is favoring India and that Pakistan needs much more help to solve its problems

But without US aid - Pakistan will sink

India has managed without US aid, so it is Pakistan that is more vulnerable.

The US realises that Pakistan is vulnerable and tries to "redress the balance"

Taking Pakistan down is useful for India

Taking the US down will help take Pakistan down

Taking India down is useful for Pakistan

Taking the US down is not going to help Pakistan

Pakistan's survival is linked to the power of the US

India's survival is not linked to the power of the US. India's power is undermined by US power as long as Pakistan is aided

Therefore Pakistanis find it convenient to work for US interests

The US is happy to have the Paki army whore working for its interests as long as the US is safer and balls to India

But the PA hasn't consistently worked for the U.S. interests and the U.S. realizes that from time to time. It is hard for the U.S. to accept that the funds bestowed on Pakistan over the years have been mostly wasted and the problems that existed in the AfPak region almost a decade ago still exist.

In regards to continued help - aid (even increased) for Pakistan, that is a continued waste by the U.S. None of: the PA, the Bhutto clan and the Sharif clan will step out of the way and let needed change happen in Pakistan. None of them are interested in instituting changes that could put their respective power bases at risk and all would block a Fresh Face Outsider that tried to crusade for change.

One of these decades, perhaps the U.S. will accept what is possible and what is not possible in regards to present day Pakistan. Let the funding dry up and let the collapse commence.

Carl_T · Post by **Carl_T** » 06 Apr 2010 10:15

ArmenT wrote: Speaking of sports personalities and academics, Beckham has some good company. I'm pretty sure Sachin Tendulkar flunked 12th math, but he graduated during the second attempt, and unlike the paki, there was no cheating involved.

According to wiki, Jamshed made his first class debut when he was 15 which is also the age he would be in 9th standard, it may be that he failed then and dropped out after that and suddenly decided to get edumacated.

I guess we are OT though.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 06 Apr 2010 10:17

ArmenT wrote:. . . what we used to call in college "a tenured student" i.e. someone who takes ten years to pass a four year course

Classic.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 06 Apr 2010 10:19

archan wrote: "Acharya" "ramana" All this is nice but what are India's options?
One strong option
It is probably too much to ask from you, but I still ask you to put some substance in your posts, if you can. If you cannot, I suggest keeping away from that "post reply" button. I will not be tolerating this for too long.

What do you want me to do. It was a reply to ramana for his question. He knows the answer.
You can ignore it.

Even answer has to be in a certain way? I dont understand it. Ability to ignore is a key part of such forum

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 06 Apr 2010 10:43

Joseph wrote: But what can the Pakistanis point to as an example of U.S. favoring India over Pakistan?

Sir I believe you are guilty of not visiting this thread often enough

although BRF is guilty of putting in the BENIS thread what should be on here.

The US has not handed Kashmir on a platter to Pakistan although Pakistan handed Afghanistan on a platter to the US after driving away the Soviets.

The US has not given Pakistan a nuclear deal although Pakistan has lost 25000 soldiers and handed 314,159 Al Qaeda number 3s to the US

It is the US's responsibility to do something for Pakistan. Pakistan has done enough and more. Enough talk from the US. The US must walk the talk.

..or Pakistan will implode

archan · Post by **archan** » 06 Apr 2010 11:12

Acharya,
I have stated what I have, now it is up to you. I will take appropriate action as I said.

Ability to ignore is a key part of such forum

Kindly don't give me your gyan. I am not worthy of it. As much as you would like admins to ignore whatever it is that you post, its not gonna happen. And yes, this kind of stuff has been ignored for way too long, and needs to stop.

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 06 Apr 2010 11:47

vishal wrote:Two former ISI officers with close ties to Taliban kidnapped.
clicky

Extract: They were on way back to their homes after having a meeting with the Taliban leadership in tribal areas when they were allegedly picked up by unknown people. It is yet not clear who kidnapped them.

However, it is pertinent to mention that both the former ISI officers were having close relations with Taliban and Al-Qaeda leadership.

Okay fellows. This is big. One of the worthies who got kidnapped was Col Imam -- Mullah Omar's handler. There was an article about this guy some time back:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... 036961.ece

Kavu · Post by **Kavu** » 06 Apr 2010 13:45

Acharya wrote: I will give you another hint.
Do you think there was need for 8-9 years in AfPak by the US and Nato to stabilize the region. That is a long time.
It may have been diversion for something.
Is "solving" Kashmir the real reason for US troops in the region and not the problem of AfPak

Why hasnt Kashmir stablized after 20 years, why did we loose 70 CRPF jawans today? and it is our own country here we are talking about, you could take a train to Chattisgrah or Srinagar, while Americans are doing miles away from home in a different culture and race with double dealing ally.
Why the different yardsticks, is it because you cant stand the US or Western Forces in the region, that too against a common foe. There are certain members over here who have clear anti-US feelings which clouds their posts and sounds like a broken record singing a politburo agenda.

arun · Post by **arun** » 06 Apr 2010 14:00

Anujan wrote:
vishal wrote:Two former ISI officers with close ties to Taliban kidnapped.

clicky

Extract: They were on way back to their homes after having a meeting with the Taliban leadership in tribal areas when they were allegedly picked up by unknown people. It is yet not clear who kidnapped them.

However, it is pertinent to mention that both the former ISI officers were having close relations with Taliban and Al-Qaeda leadership.
Okay fellows. This is big. One of the worthies who got kidnapped was Col Imam -- Mullah Omar's handler. There was an article about this guy some time back:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... 036961.ece

Certainly big.

Squadron Leader (Retd) Khalid Khawaja was also no insignificant slouch in the Jihadi Islamic terrorist support system present in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.

Khalid Khawaja it will be recollected filed a constitutional petition in the Lahore High Court to prevent senior Taliban leaders like Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar from being interrogated by foreign intelligence agencies (ATimes). Khalid Khawaja had also disclosed that former Prime Minister of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, Nawaz sharif had met Osama Bin laden five times (The News).

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 06 Apr 2010 14:10

vishal wrote:Two former ISI officers with close ties to Taliban kidnapped.

Extract: They were on way back to their homes after having a meeting with the Taliban leadership in tribal areas when they were allegedly picked up by unknown people. It is yet not clear who kidnapped them.

Col. Imam was the one decorated by Bush Sr as the 'one who dealt the first blow', obviously the first blow to the USSR and the presented with a piece of the Berlin Wall.

The Pakistani ISI, Col. Imam's own unit, has now picked him up. The US hand is obvious too. What an irony.

Kavu · Post by **Kavu** » 06 Apr 2010 14:13

RamaY wrote: 0. How did we get here? Al-keeda attacks US homeland on 9/11. USA was able to figure out that all the hijakers are from KSA but couldn't figure out that the terror capital is in TSP. Then in the fit of rage USA attacked Iran and Afghanistan. Does it really resemble the capability of a omni-present and omni-potent superpower?

US is not as powerful as you think. US didnt want to know 'wrongfully' in my opinion, who made the terror and supported them, but just OBL and his cronies who were in Afghanistan at that point of time.

And then the super power allowed TSPA to airlift al-keeda/ISI/Taliban leadership from Afghanistan to TSP and then invades Afghanistan.

The world's sole superpower didn't 'quantitatively' need any help in invading much stronger Iraq. But it somehow felt that only TSPA can solve Afghanistan conundrum. And we need to believe that.

Its called Logistics. The one and only reason TSPA is involved.As said before US isnt really as powerful as you think it is. There is no way it can capture and hold a country of 160 million.

How much of financial help US is putting in Afghanistan's nation building project? How much it is giving to TSP?

Logistics, USA cannot operate without Pakistan, the other viable routes are through Iran and Israel isnt going to play ball there,nor does Iran-US history, The Russian route has its own problems for USA, it isnt uni-dimensional as you put it be. For its other interest and domestic concerns, the Pakistan route gives it the cheapest alternative, though may not to be our liking. Question is, Why arent we in Afghanistan through the Iran route? More than USA, I believe it is Israel.

1. US is in Afpak for Iran and Pak wants to use US against India - Is it really true? Does USA really need Afghanistan to attack Iran?

That would imply 9/11 is a staged event. Which it is not.

Does it really want to invade Iran and put a puppet govt? Why does it need Iran when it has KSA safely in its pocket? Isnt it a better option to keep Iran boxed in so that its competitors cannot use Iran's resources until KSA is dried up? Can USA have all Shias, Sunnis, and Israel in its control all at the same time?

Nobody is going to invade Iran, Though I have a gut feeling on an airstrike by Israel.

If USA's leadership, administration, military strategists are dumb enough to be exploited by nut-jobs in TSPA/ISI then how is it wise to ally with such a stupid super power?

As far as they are concerned, it is better than being squeezed by the Russians, or getting wrath of American public or Israelis for going through the Iranina Route. In that comparison, Pakistan is the only and cheapest alternative.

2. Let us do a balance sheet. Whose strategic interests USA hurt in the past 40+ years? How do current US actions help Indian strategic interests? Is it in Indias strategic interests to have USA settled in POWI region?

India's. I do expect that from any country who wants to play dominant role, we are a big country, there will be a point when we are too big even for the Russians. We are already too big for the Chinese, Americans and Pakistani's. Isnt that Geopolitics, why should we whine about it. I wonder what has Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal, Burma, Bhutan has to say about us.

?

What I don't get is India's hesitation to shape the events in its neighborhood? In what way it is in India's strategic interests to contribute 10,000 soldiers to UN peacekeeping missions, while staying away from its backyard. Whom does it to impress with this? Pakistan or China? Why cant India contribute, say the same 10,000 soldiers to NE Afghanistan and shape/influence the events from inside the tent?

Why is there Indian hestiation to even take on the Chinese on our core problems such as Territorial integrity or even the Visa episode, is US holding us back from the Chinese too. So lets not blame our incompetence and lack of capability on the Americans. Look inward.

My bottomline is that India cannot be nice to everyone in this region as its national interests will not be congruent with other players, especially TSPA and its 3.5 parents.

You are assuming India is some bumbling idiot who is naive to the core. Maybe our priorities are elsewhere or maybe we arent just capable enough, worse maybe we dont have any balls.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 06 Apr 2010 14:34

Australia blocks shipment to Pakistan

Australia has blocked a shipment of scientific equipment to Pakistan over fears it could be used to help build weapons of mass destruction, a spokesman for Defence Minister John Faulkner said Tuesday.

The government used the 1995 Weapons of Mass Destruction (Prevention of Proliferation) Act to stop an Australian company exporting instruments and accessories to a Pakistani firm, he said.

"The minister forms the view, based on advice from the Department of Defence supported by other agencies, that there are unacceptable risks associated with the provision of these goods," the spokesman said.

It is the fourth time the minister has used the little-known act to block a shipment going overseas. On previous occasions, the goods had been destined for Iran or countries deemed at risk of passing them on to Iran.

The government refused to name either the Australian or Pakistani companies involved in the transaction, but The Australian newspaper said the domestic firm was GBC Scientific Equipment.

It said GBC wanted to sell two atomic absorption spectrophotometers, which analyse liquid samples, to a Pakistani engineering firm but had been unable to convince Canberra they could not be used to analyse metals used for centrifuges and missiles.

sum · Post by **sum** » 06 Apr 2010 15:36

Extract: They were on way back to their homes after having a meeting with the Taliban leadership in tribal areas when they were allegedly picked up by unknown people. It is yet not clear who kidnapped them.

So, Americans did this without Paki knowledge?

When will we see ISI afsars directly involved in anti-India operations(part of the Kashmir desk) being picked up and disappearing in this manner?

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 06 Apr 2010 15:38

As some have mentioned here, the pick up of Col. Imam and Khalid Khwaja is a big deal, a very big deal. To add a few nuggets:

1. IIRC, Col. Imam was in the lead Taliban truck that drove into Kabul when they drove out Najibullah. The man has been the Pakistani military's lead attack dog. He has done incomparable harm to Afghanistan. The man is an out and out jihadi, who should be debriefed until the last drop of blood and then severely physically debilitated and let out into Pakistani society again. When his wounds begin to heal, he should be picked up for a repeat performance and so on until he passes away. A living lesson to our cousins.

2. Khalid Khwaja, is a snake of a different skin. A sly, slippery guy, he has had his fingers in numerous pies, including the murder of Daniel Pearl. Recall that he was the guy who helped DP - via Asra Nomani IIRC - get in touch with the people who eventually dismembered him on camera.

The irony, as SSridhar points out, is so bitter that many in the ISI will be extremely disconcerted about what is and what is not kosher. IMHO, the pick up is directly related to the attack on the CIA station in Afghanistan. If they were picked up by the ISI, then these two chaps are likely to have been picked up by "unknown people" for the sole purpose of being handed over. If they were not, i.e. if they were picked up by the TTP, well then... talk about blowback being a biaaatch. In that case, let's hope the two at least had the honour to cut their throats themselves. Col. Imam maybe. Khwaja not a chance.

Of course, it has to be the ISI, the US, or the TTP. Couldn't be anyone else.

Hamid must be sleeping fitfully.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 06 Apr 2010 17:06

Acharya wrote: With US a hyperpower with a defence budget of $1T do you want to give excuses. Come on

There is a Panchatantra story somewhere in this. $1T does buy you a lot of tanks, planes and ammunition, but without buddhi - strategic clarity, understanding of the ground realities, and so on - it will not buy much more than that.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 06 Apr 2010 17:07

JE Menon wrote:As some have mentioned here, the pick up of Col. Imam and Khalid Khwaja is a big deal, a very big deal.

And I can only keep breaking out into spontaneous smiles.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 06 Apr 2010 17:53

Meanwhile, the judicial crisis in PoK worsens.

For those who are not following this story, the CJ of PoK along with the Registrar of the Court were first dismissed by the PM of PoK, who himself came to power recently after a sort of coup. The President of PoK who was on a foreign junket came back hurriedly and simply reinstated the dismissed CJ & Registrar. Now, there are two Chief Justices.

The judicial crisis in PoK intensified on Monday as the deposed PoK Supreme Court (SC) chief justice (CJ) and the acting CJ both began working as the top judge, a private TV channel reported on Monday.

Acting CJ Manzoorul Hassan Gilani chaired a session of the Supreme Judicial Council (SJC) in Muzaffarabad to hear a reference against the deposed CJ Riaz Akhtar.

Earlier, Riaz reached the SC Circuit Bench in Mirpur and issued an executive order to restore the SC registrar, the superintendent and the protocol officer Shehzad Rathore who had been removed by Gilani.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 06 Apr 2010 18:15

DAWN editorial on the PoK Crisis

Unless attempts are made to defuse the crisis, one can see a period of prolonged political instability over what essentially is a constitutional matter. The head of the ruling Muslim Conference, Attique Ahmad Khan, was within his right to support the president. But most certainly he has not helped matters by asking the people to take to the streets if the ‘non-functional’ chief justice is restored.

Once again, the seniority principle was violated in the appointments of the judges to PoK's apex court. More regretfully Pakistan’s former prime minister Shaukat Aziz , as head of the Azad Kashmir Council, and the intelligence agencies had a role in making appointments which have led to the current crisis. {And, they refer to rigged elections in J&K for the trouble. There is absolutely no people representation in PoK and they talk about India !}

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Apr 2010 18:37

TTP or ISI has no reason to pick them up as its unlikely they work for sher khan as double agents.

sher khan freelance contractors (with diplomatic id cards) who the pakis complain of roaming in unmarked vehicles must have picked them up and later on 'told' the ISI. they will shortly be flown out to diego garcia or gitmo probably for debriefing.

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 06 Apr 2010 18:55

They can use that plaque from Bush to perform the waterboarding

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 06 Apr 2010 19:27

Kavu wrote:
US is not as powerful as you think. US didnt want to know 'wrongfully' in my opinion, who made the terror and supported them, but just OBL and his cronies who were in Afghanistan at that point of time.

And then the super power allowed TSPA to airlift al-keeda/ISI/Taliban leadership from Afghanistan to TSP and then invades Afghanistan.

Its called Logistics. The one and only reason TSPA is involved.As said before US isnt really as powerful as you think it is. There is no way it can capture and hold a country of 160 million.

Logistics, USA cannot operate without Pakistan, the other viable routes are through Iran and Israel isnt going to play ball there,nor does Iran-US history, The Russian route has its own problems for USA, it isnt uni-dimensional as you put it be. For its other interest and domestic concerns, the Pakistan route gives it the cheapest alternative, though may not to be our liking. Question is, Why arent we in Afghanistan through the Iran route? More than USA, I believe it is Israel.

That would imply 9/11 is a staged event. Which it is not.

Nobody is going to invade Iran, Though I have a gut feeling on an airstrike by Israel.

As far as they are concerned, it is better than being squeezed by the Russians, or getting wrath of American public or Israelis for going through the Iranina Route. In that comparison, Pakistan is the only and cheapest alternative.

India's. I do expect that from any country who wants to play dominant role, we are a big country, there will be a point when we are too big even for the Russians. We are already too big for the Chinese, Americans and Pakistani's. Isnt that Geopolitics, why should we whine about it. I wonder what has Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal, Burma, Bhutan has to say about us.

Why is there Indian hestiation to even take on the Chinese on our core problems such as Territorial integrity or even the Visa episode, is US holding us back from the Chinese too. So lets not blame our incompetence and lack of capability on the Americans. Look inward.

You are assuming India is some bumbling idiot who is naive to the core. Maybe our priorities are elsewhere or maybe we arent just capable enough, worse maybe we dont have any balls.

Kavu-ji,

First of all you need not infer anything from my post (such as "That would imply 9/11 is a staged event"). My thoughts are clear in every point.

1. If US is weak what is the guarantee that it can solve Af-Pak situation to anyone's satisfaction be it USA or Pak or Afghanistan?

2. If nobody (big statement followed by air strikes by Israel

) is going to invade Iran, why can't USA work with Iran for logistics? Perhaps it might be able to get two birds with one shot, right? But it is not doing it as it might upset Sunni-alliance. Then why is USA forcing TSP not to work with Iran on gas pipe line? What is USA's interest in and strategy for Iran?

3. Pakistan is cheapest option for USA. Fair enough. But what is the cost India is paying for it (that cheapest option for USA)? Let us, hypothetically, assume Iran route costs USA $10B instead of the $7B it is spending on TSP route. Can India reimburse the difference $3B so the solution is in the best interests of both USA and India? Did anyone do any feasibility study on that?

4. On China - Please read news papers. India protested against every PRC move, allocated funds to setup 2 (and 2 more recently) mountain battalions, opened bids for light-weight howitzers, testing missiles and what not. With PRC we have more levers to work with, if you think deeply. And with PRC it is one-to-one game. With TSP India has to deal with its 3.5 friends.

Excellent summary! There are many sane and smart Indians in and outside India, and my hope is that they all work in harmony for Indian Interests.

ArmenT · Post by **ArmenT** » 06 Apr 2010 20:20

Singha wrote:TTP or ISI has no reason to pick them up as its unlikely they work for sher khan as double agents.

sher khan freelance contractors (with diplomatic id cards) who the pakis complain of roaming in unmarked vehicles must have picked them up and later on 'told' the ISI. they will shortly be flown out to diego garcia or gitmo probably for debriefing.

Who's to say that they haven't been picked up by the ISI?
Scenario:
* US asks ISI to arrest and hand over the two guys for questioning and points out exactly where they are staying.
* Pakistani govt. immediately removes those two into a safe house and claims that the targets have unfortunately recently been kidnapped by unknown persons.

Kavu · Post by **Kavu** » 06 Apr 2010 20:22

RamaY wrote:
Kavu-ji,

First of all you need not infer anything from my post (such as "That would imply 9/11 is a staged event"). My thoughts are clear in every point.

The moment you say Afghanistan was selected for a staging ground for a future attack on Iran, you are implying 9/11 was staged.

1. If US is weak what is the guarantee that it can solve Af-Pak situation to anyone's satisfaction be it USA or Pak or Afghanistan?

There is no guarantee, absolutely none. That doesnt mean they dont try. Honestly the Americans dont have a perfect solution

2. If nobody (big statement followed by air strikes by Israel ) is going to invade Iran, why can't USA work with Iran for logistics? Perhaps it might be able to get two birds with one shot, right? But it is not doing it as it might upset Sunni-alliance. Then why is USA forcing TSP not to work with Iran on gas pipe line? What is USA's interest in and strategy for Iran?

Am I to understand that you dont know the history of US-Iran. What will Iran's cost for siding with US, No more Israel in the Middle East? Iran and US has been in war for nearly 33 years. I suggest you read Johaan's post somewhere in the forum. What will the American Jews say about it?

3. Pakistan is cheapest option for USA. Fair enough. But what is the cost India is paying for it (that cheapest option for USA)? Let us, hypothetically, assume Iran route costs USA $10B instead of the $7B it is spending on TSP route. Can India reimburse the difference $3B so the solution is in the best interests of both USA and India? Did anyone do any feasibility study on that?

Why do you assume it is money, Americans have money. Cheapest interms of geo politics. What would the Russians ask from the Americans, Leave the Baltic area? Leave Georgia? Stop missile shield? Favorable terms in Business dealings?
Pakistan is asking leverage against India, solution of Kashmir etc. Its not money, What will Russians and Iranians ask Americans. How will their internal Politics, Foreign Policy, their status as numero uno be affected on those demands. From an American perspective, Pakistan is the best route possible.

4. On China - Please read news papers. India protested against every PRC move, allocated funds to setup 2 (and 2 more recently) mountain battalions, opened bids for light-weight howitzers, testing missiles and what not. With PRC we have more levers to work with, if you think deeply. And with PRC it is one-to-one game. With TSP India has to deal with its 3.5 friends

Protested, are you kidding me. Like that counted for something. Eye wash.With TSP India has a confusion at her hands, Japan, USA, China and Saudi Arabia, what do you want them to do, Invade Pakistan. Nuke Pakistan. Hardly, those options are not possible. There are overlapping politics, interests, visions and concerns here. Dont take it so simpliciticaly. Why isnt India promoting Sindhi, Balochi and Kashmiri movement against Pakistan. India has to man up and stop whining. Our failures are ours alone.

Excellent summary! There are many sane and smart Indians in and outside India, and my hope is that they all work in harmony for Indian Interests.

It has been quite an emotional and tough day today, so forgive me. Is the above sarcasm?

shravan · Post by **shravan** » 06 Apr 2010 20:39

Russia confirms bomber as wife of Pak trained terrorist leader

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 06 Apr 2010 20:42

Karan Dixit wrote:

Please email it to me at karan.dixit .... Thanks!

mail sent

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Apr 2010 20:46

What is the timeline of the Peshawar attack and the two ex-ISI officers being picked up?

Were they picked up in retaliation to the attack? In that case it would be the ISI pickingup its rogues.

Kanson · Post by **Kanson** » 06 Apr 2010 20:57

ArmenT wrote:
Singha wrote:TTP or ISI has no reason to pick them up as its unlikely they work for sher khan as double agents.

sher khan freelance contractors (with diplomatic id cards) who the pakis complain of roaming in unmarked vehicles must have picked them up and later on 'told' the ISI. they will shortly be flown out to diego garcia or gitmo probably for debriefing.
Who's to say that they haven't been picked up by the ISI?
Scenario:
* US asks ISI to arrest and hand over the two guys for questioning and points out exactly where they are staying.
* Pakistani govt. immediately removes those two into a safe house and claims that the targets have unfortunately recently been kidnapped by unknown persons.

I couldnt get this logic. If Sher khan demands them and ISI comes saying they were kidnapped by unkown, will CIA believe that when they have their own mole/intel network and what is the prospects of the Pak getting F-16 & other things?
Ofcourse, tactical brillant pakis can do anything. Though the suspision lies on US, what is the chance of Afghans intel or Iran kidnapping them. Any basis to go in that route ?

Kavu · Post by **Kavu** » 06 Apr 2010 21:02

ramana wrote:What is the timeline of the Peshawar attack and the two ex-ISI officers being picked up?

Were they picked up in retaliation to the attack? In that case it would be the ISI pickingup its rogues.

The news reports came a day apart, but in none of the News reports, have they mentioned the time and date of the pick up. So it could be even earlier than the Peshawar attack, which would imply that it was the retaliation to Imam's and Kwaja's pick up

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 06 Apr 2010 21:06

ramana wrote:What is the timeline of the Peshawar attack and the two ex-ISI officers being picked up?

Were they picked up in retaliation to the attack? In that case it would be the ISI pickingup its rogues.

Ramana, I'm not sure about this conclusion. The Peshawar attack and the pick up of these two "rogues" happened almost simultaneously. In fact, given that news about disappearances comes out typically after the event, the pick up might have happened before the attack.

What may be more important is that the guys were picked up AFTER they allegedly met with some key AQ/TaliPaki leader.

My guesses on this mystery:

(a) They probably met with a key figure in the "good" Taliban (for TSPA) like Siraj Haqqani or Mullah Zakir and Unkil had proof of that. If so, when confronted with proof, TSPA has to produce them or make them disappear

or

(b) They met with someone from the "bad" group, like Ilyas Kashmiri or maybe even Zawahiri and Unkil again wanted them. Remember that B.Raman wrote that retired ISI people being conduits for AQ leaders to relelase tapes, send messages etc.

Regardless, I doubt that TSPA would arrest these guys for their help to people attacking ISI HQ, GHQ etc. because these guys have been doing that for a long time and Kayani and co know that this is the price TSPA has to pay for the deniability provided by Imam and Khawaja types.

My bet is on some link with Ilyas Kashmiri because he is Unkil's target #1 today (among TSPians) and he has stopped using electronic means to communicate, thus needing Khawaja types for logistical purposes.

sum · Post by **sum** » 06 Apr 2010 21:59

I couldnt get this logic. If Sher khan demands them and ISI comes saying they were kidnapped by unkown, will CIA believe that when they have their own mole/intel network and what is the prospects of the Pak getting F-16 & other things?

Only sad thing is virtually every damn agency but RAW is mentioned. Our( India's) image has become such that even hardened jingoes cannot imagine the "premier" intelligency agency of conducting such much needed black ops.

Anyways, getting back to topic:

Always expect the unexpected ( esp of the tactically brilliant kind) from the Pakis. It just might be that ISID called in the two oldies for cooling off in a safehouse till the heat on them by the Amrikis dies down ( though am hoping that the turds are actually in enemy hands and being tortured)