Global Economy

Manu · Post by **Manu** » 10 Apr 2010 22:24

Dmurphy,

I can't help you on the oil prices, but for currency, please see: http://www.oanda.com/

I use it myself.

Dmurphy · Post by **Dmurphy** » 10 Apr 2010 23:36

Neshant, manu...thanks guys I've got what I need.

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 12 Apr 2010 01:39

Manufacturing growth dampens fears of double-dip in UK

Ameet · Post by **Ameet** » 12 Apr 2010 21:44

MasterCard Names Ajay Banga CEO

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... et4Q&pos=6

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 12 Apr 2010 23:43

Stocks edge higher after Greece debt concerns ease

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 13 Apr 2010 20:45

US has trade deficit with almost every major trade block but increasing trade volume is another sign that economy is trying to recover.......

February US trade deficit increases to $39.7 billion

The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that the deficit for February increased 7.4 percent to $39.7 billion. That was larger than the $38.5 billion deficit economists had expected. Exports edged up 0.2 percent while imports jumped 1.7 percent.

The politically sensitive deficit with China fell to $16.5 billion in February, the lowest level in 11 months, but was still the biggest trade imbalance the United States has with any country.

For February, the small 0.2 percent rise in exports of goods and services pushed the total to $143.2 billion, the highest level since Octobrer 2008......

Imports rose a larger 1.7 percent to $182.9 billion as imports of consumer goods rose to the highest level since October 2008.

In February, the U.S. deficit with Japan rose to $4.3 billion, a gain of 28.3 percent, while the deficit with the European Union surged by 89.9 percent to $5.3 billion.

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 13 Apr 2010 21:26

Imagine the Bailouts Are Working

And what if, after all that vitriol over the government’s risking hundreds of billions of dollars to rescue Wall Street from disaster, it turned out that taxpayers might actually lose nothing, or even make a profit?

Could it be? Really?

The government’s $45 billion investment in Citigroup alone is on track to make a profit of nearly $11 billion, plus $8 billion or so in interest and other fees.

Of course, we’re still expected to lose $48 billion on the government’s rescue of the American International Group. But two people close to the board suggested to me that as the company recalculates the value of assets in its portfolio that were once considered “toxic,” the government could actually claw its way back to even on that investment, if it holds on to its stake long enough.

Of course, there’s a small problem with all this happy Washington math: it doesn’t take into account the piles of cash we’re likely to lose on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the huge mortgage finance companies. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that figure to be about $320 billion. That would wipe away any gains made elsewhere.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 13 Apr 2010 23:29

Another Desi on the roll
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?sid= ... d=20601087

April 12 (Bloomberg) -- MasterCard Inc., the second-biggest electronic-payments network after Visa Inc., named Ajay Banga chief executive officer, 10 months after hiring him from Citigroup Inc. as a potential successor to Robert W. Selander. Banga, 50, will take the top position on July 1, the Purchase, New York-based company said today in a statement. Selander, 59, will continue as executive vice chairman and a member of the board of directors until he retires on Dec. 31. When he joined MasterCard as president and chief operating officer last August, Banga was given a $4.2 million signing bonus he could keep if he wasn’t named CEO by June 30, according to a regulatory filing. Banga, who will retain his title as president when he becomes CEO, must fend off Visa’s effort to grab an even bigger share of the market for electronic payments as consumers shift spending away from cash and checks.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 14 Apr 2010 05:12

Katare wrote:Imagine the Bailouts Are Working

And what if, after all that vitriol over the government’s risking hundreds of billions of dollars to rescue Wall Street from disaster, it turned out that taxpayers might actually lose nothing, or even make a profit?

Could it be? Really?

Let's hope so.

The government’s $45 billion investment in Citigroup alone is on track to make a profit of nearly $11 billion, plus $8 billion or so in interest and other fees.

Sure. Great. Excellente. Wonder why for the gubmint insists on maintaining FAS 157 then. Why not have banks like the mighty Citi value assets at 'market prices' and then see what happens to citi stock and hence to the investment value of gubmint stake in Citi? Nothing to fear if there's nothing to hide, or is there?

Of course, we’re still expected to lose $48 billion on the government’s rescue of the American International Group. But two people close to the board suggested to me that as the company recalculates the value of assets in its portfolio that were once considered “toxic,” the government could actually claw its way back to even on that investment, if it holds on to its stake long enough.

Good news that. Gubmint should put these two ananymous worthies in front of CNBS and other tv studio cameras on a 24x7 basis to tom-tom this grand possibility and feat. Would also further lift the markets, I reckon.

Of course, there’s a small problem with all this happy Washington math: it doesn’t take into account the piles of cash we’re likely to lose on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the huge mortgage finance companies. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that figure to be about $320 billion. That would wipe away any gains made elsewhere.

Sarkar can print money in the trillions. Whatever consequences are there can be printed away after all.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 14 Apr 2010 23:05

^^^^

Its bean counter myopic eye view to claim the bank bailout is making aprofit. The true cost of the bailout of the bnaks induced economic collapse is got by adding the funds for banks (TARP), AIG bailout, FANNIE and FREDDIE MAEs, the cost of extending unemployment checks and anything I dont know about. If all this taken into account the piddly little profit is hardly buys the registration costs of the loans.

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 15 Apr 2010 03:30

Well here comes the usual D&G brigade to quickly put away all the lungi dancing rebels............

Fed survey: Recovery is spreading; jobs still weak

UPS posts 33 percent jump in 1Q earnings per share

In a good sign for the U.S. economy, shipping giant UPS says it is firing on all cylinders as it posted a 33 percent increase in first-quarter earnings per share.

The company, based in Atlanta, also raised its guidance Wednesday, saying it expects full-year 2010 earnings per share to climb 32 percent to 43 percent.

Better days here? Economic rebound gains strength

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 15 Apr 2010 03:43

Newsweek has come out with a cover that reads "America's Back"

The Comeback Country

Americans Won't "Sit on Their Rear Ends": Why Dan Gross Is Optimistic About Jobs

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 15 Apr 2010 05:00

Aaah katare saab,

Well here comes the usual D&G brigade to quickly put away all the lungi dancing rebels............

Like Sri shiv famously quipped in the erstwhile n-sizzle/fizzle thread, public info on the event isn't sufficient to deduce for sure whether sizzle happened or fizzle. Time will tell, perhaps, in diue course but until then forumites can argue back and forth based on the same set of insufficient info.

Similarly, the doomers and the recovery-ists are also engaged in back and forth based on as yet insuff info to point which way the tide will turn.

Time will tell, of course. I'm willing to wait and see, secure in the knowledge that I'd rather be wrong about doom and gloom than right, for all our sakes.

Jai ho and have a nice day.

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 15 Apr 2010 07:19

What recession? asks Mr Hu!!

China’s economy logs 11.9% growth in Q1

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 15 Apr 2010 20:38

BRICs divided on global agenda, look to mutual trade
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE63D4O320100414
(

Reuters) - The leaders of the world's top four emerging markets will renew calls for a greater say in the global economic order when they meet in Brazil's capital this week but they may struggle to come up with clear proposals to advance a common agenda.At their first summit last year in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg, the so-called BRIC countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China were at the forfront of a push to overhaul global financial regulations and move toward a new international reserve currency.But with the worst of the global economic crisis now over, differences between the four countries have become more evident, exposing the limitations of the group's ambitions."Don't expect the BRICs to make bombastic or revolutionary proposals because it's not going to happen," said Roberto Jaguaribe, undersecretary of political affairs at Brazil's foreign ministry.Finding alternatives to the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency and using local currencies for trade are not on the official agenda of the leaders' two-day meeting in Brasilia that begins on Thursday, although they will be discussed
.

Chinmayanand · Post by **Chinmayanand** » 19 Apr 2010 13:42

IATA says volcano impact on airlines bigger than 9/11

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 20 Apr 2010 20:22

IMF trims estimate of losses from financial crisis

The International Monetary Fund is forecasting that global bank losses from the financial crisis will total $2.28 trillion, a drop of $533 billion from an estimate made last October.

The IMF said Tuesday that its forecast for losses just for U.S. banks had dropped to $885 billion, down from an estimate of $1.03 trillion made in October.

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 21 Apr 2010 22:14

India's growth forcast has received highest upwards revision of 1.1%. Check table to see which economies have shown improvements in last 3 months and which ones would do worse now as per IMF........

IMF Raises Forecast for Global Growth, Sees Multispeed Recovery

China’s growth is forecast at 10 percent in 2010, with India also at a rapid 8.8 percent. Sub-Saharan Africa has weathered the crisis well and its recovery is expected to be stronger than in previous global downturns. In the depth of the crisis last year, world economic activity contracted by 0.6 percent as world trade slumped and credit froze up.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 21 Apr 2010 23:31

In a good sign for the U.S. economy, shipping giant UPS says it is firing on all cylinders as it posted a 33 percent increase in first-quarter earnings per share.

The company, based in Atlanta, also raised its guidance Wednesday, saying it expects full-year 2010 earnings per share to climb 32 percent to 43 percent.

A month ago, I happened to talk to a person who was taking a trucking driver job. He said there is labor shortage in the trucking industry. He actually was a gemologist working in a local firm setting diamonds and ityadi. Business in that area was dull, but it seems trucking industry needed workers and they were finding it hard. As he was laid off, he decided to make the career switch.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 22 Apr 2010 00:06

India, Brazil Back U.S. Position on Yuan Before G-20 (Update1)

April 21 (Bloomberg) -- Central bank governors in India and Brazil backed a stronger Chinese yuan, siding with U.S. President Barack Obama before a meeting of the Group of 20 nations this week.

Exports from China to India have grown faster than Indian shipments to its northern neighbor “and that obviously is a reflection of differences in the exchange-rate management,” Reserve Bank of India’s Duvvuri Subbarao told reporters in Mumbai yesterday. Brazil’s Henrique Meirelles told a senate hearing yesterday in Brasilia it was “absolutely critical” that China should let its currency appreciate.
Obama, who considers the yuan “undervalued,” is seeking to gain broader support from finance officials of the G20, who will discuss outlook for the global economy in Washington for three days starting April 22. Speculation that China may scrap the yuan’s peg to the dollar intensified this month after Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner delayed a report that could brand the nation a currency manipulator.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-0 ... eting.html

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Apr 2010 03:23

prad wrote:^^^ i think it was Singha who predicted that all the "cash rich munnas" like Brazil, India, SK, Japan, SE Asia and others would eventually join US in shafting PRC. we might be seeing the beginning of that. as PRC amasses resources across the globe, i think everybody is starting to realize just how skewed the global game could be, in favor of a country with enormous amounts of reserve cash. and i think the US will subtly dangle the carrot pretty soon: namely, liquidation of PRC's global assets and partitioning them to the next rung of countries: Brazil, India, Japan being the prominent among them. Japan is one country that won't be able to resist such an offer. it's a resource scarce country with deep demographic problems. they need to amass as much of their own resources if they are to remain a strong economy.

prad, how can a country with bad demographics hope to amass resources abroad? What mechanism is there to enforce their ownership? Do they rely on gobocop for a fee?

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 22 Apr 2010 03:48

How is the US in a position to cap 'n roll back Chinese acquisition of assets abroad? You mean by sending Blackwater, Executive Outcomes, and any old mercenaries to destabilize local resource owners who've signed deals with China?

Otherwise, I don't see how the US can compete with a China that is flush with cash from the domestic sweatshop cash-cows. And who's to say the Chinese wouldn't fight back by using their cheap arms exports, as in the case of Sudan?

Brazil is already signing its own deals with China, never mind competing against them. Japan is over the hill. Their newly ascendant leftists particularly want China as a market, and not as a competitor.

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 22 Apr 2010 20:41

SwamyG wrote:
In a good sign for the U.S. economy, shipping giant UPS says it is firing on all cylinders as it posted a 33 percent increase in first-quarter earnings per share.

The company, based in Atlanta, also raised its guidance Wednesday, saying it expects full-year 2010 earnings per share to climb 32 percent to 43 percent.
A month ago, I happened to talk to a person who was taking a trucking driver job. He said there is labor shortage in the trucking industry. He actually was a gemologist working in a local firm setting diamonds and ityadi. Business in that area was dull, but it seems trucking industry needed workers and they were finding it hard. As he was laid off, he decided to make the career switch.

About two weeks back there was a news report about UPS truck drivers cum delivery guys getting 74K salary.

Ameet · Post by **Ameet** » 22 Apr 2010 22:10

56 Indian companies among Forbes' Global 2000 list

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/biz/ ... 844262.cms

As many as 56 Indian companies, including Reliance Industries and State Bank of India, have been named among the world's 2,000 most powerful listed companies, according to US magazine Forbes.

The 'Global 2000' list of the biggest and most powerful companies worldwide has been topped by US banking giant JPMorgan Chase and is followed by General Electric, Bank of America and ExxonMobil.

The global rankings span 62 countries, with the US (515 members) and Japan (210 members) dominating the list as usual, although the number of companies from developing nations in the Global 2000 is fast increasing.

This year, the countries that gained the most ground are mainland China (113 members), India (56 members) and Canada (62 members), the magazine said.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 22 Apr 2010 22:32

I remember reading somewhere that transportation business is always the first line to go in and out of recession with lag effect for rest of economy for 18 m.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 23 Apr 2010 07:03

Prad, I can see your scenario happening if the Republicans return to the Whitehouse, but not if Obama & Dems stay around. The American Left need somebody to finance their all-important welfare state, and they don't mind selling out their country's interests just to keep cashing in on Chinese vendor financing.

Paul, that's why I'm surprised that electric vehicle makers haven't tried to develop vehicles for the trucking industry first. Electricity is a fraction of the cost of gas and even diesel, and plus electric motors need far less maintenance. Besides, the heavier the load being carried, the more efficiently electric motors work. The only thing is that trucking/transport trips aren't as stop-n-go as bus routes or personal vehicles, which is also where electric motors provide a key advantage. Someone should target the heavy transport market with electric vehicles.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 24 Apr 2010 06:11

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews ... 9524.shtml
Globalisation and Asia’s return to economic supremacy
( WEST need Markets and it isn in ASIA)

According to the eminent economic historian, Angus Maddison, until 1800, about three fifths of the world’s commerce and production took place in and around China and India. So did much of the world’s scientific and technological progress, including the Chinese invention of paper, explosives, and printing, and medieval India’s launch of modern mathematics. In the early 1830s, when President Andrew Jackson sent the first US envoy across the Pacific to Siam (Thailand), Asia still accounted for over half of global GDP (gross domestic product).It's important to understand that the current post-Mao Zedong modernisation of China, is not a simple story of a backward country achieving an economic miracle. A vast unified country over a span of two thousand years, overwhelmingly dominated by one ethnic group, the Han, was a pioneer in bureaucratic modes of governance. Maddison says that in the tenth century, it was already recruiting professionally trained public servants on a meritocratic basis. The economic impact of the bureaucracy was very positive for agriculture

In 1858 in India, the British government took over responsibility for the country from the East India Company. In common with Ireland, the colony was a useful source for commodities and market for British manufactures. In the eighteenth century, there had been a big market for Indian cotton in Britain but with the help of productivity gains from the Industrial Revolution, technical progress made Lancashire cotton competitive even in the Indian market.Some 54 per cent of China’s population is rural and 73 per cent of India’s; the typical manufacturing monthly wage is $130 in China but because of the one-child policy, the working-age population will only rise by 10m in the next 20 years in contrast with 240m in India.
The populations of China, India and Japan today are 1.3bn, 1.1bn and 129m compared with 380m, 280m and 40m respectively in 1890.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 24 Apr 2010 06:17

The American Left need somebody to finance their all-important welfare state, and they don't mind selling out their country's interests just to keep cashing in on Chinese vendor financing.

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 24 Apr 2010 07:23

How about entering into discussions with China and Japan on the formation of a pan-Asian currency?

The rule however will be that no country is to accumulate excessive surpluses or deficits. So no export everything and import nothing. China and Japan have a sh&tload of surplus capital they need to deploy and India should be pro-active about soaking it up.

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 24 Apr 2010 07:26

Vipul wrote: About two weeks back there was a news report about UPS truck drivers cum delivery guys getting 74K salary.

I find it ironic that in the west, the more educated you are, the less you make.

Guys doing car repairs are getting 6 figures and guys doing PhDs are cleaning test tubes and getting peanuts for it.

If you get in the public sector however, you got a good racket going. Big salary, job security, some sucker in the private sector has to pay your pension, early retirement, if your pension loses money in the stock market the taxpayer is raided to make up the 'short fall'. Its one hell of a racket.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 24 Apr 2010 07:59

SwamyG wrote:

What's your point? Nixon was certainly a useful tool of the Atlanticists, just as his successor Reagan was. In those days, they were able to extend their tentacles into both parties.
But these days, when Chinese power has grown to its current proportions, it's the special-interest-beholden Democrats who are more likely to sell out to China than the more nativist Republicans.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 25 Apr 2010 03:55

Point? When will desis wake and smell the coffee - democrats and republicans are two sides of the same coin.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 25 Apr 2010 04:18

The Republicans are more likely to be nativists, while the Democrats are more likely to be extra-territorialists. This is because the Democrats are largely composed of special interest groups, which include extra-territorialists. And the most dominant among these extra-territorialists are the Europe-first crowd.

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 25 Apr 2010 04:39

yawn yawn and a bigger yawn, please discuss american politics else where to your hearts content. spare this mujahid from this

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 25 Apr 2010 09:30

Latest estimate for bailout cost to taxpayer has come down from $500Billion or 3.5% of GDP to less than 1% of GDP (or $87 billion). I bet when they are done they might end up making money as had happened before.....

Also lotsa big banks put in lotsa money in their respective Loan Loss reserves, since asset prices are appreciating most/lot of those losses will not happen. This will allow banks to write back a lot money from LLC reserve to profit account. That retained profit would mean more capital and hence more credit to economy......

Administration trims bailout cost estimate to $87B

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 26 Apr 2010 06:59

Developing Countries Gain Voting Power at World Bank

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 27 Apr 2010 08:49

A must read!!! balanced and positive article for anyone investing in stocks........

Still $2.8 Trillion (of ~4 trillion at the peak of meltdown) is sitting in money market accounts waiting to be deployed at the next pull back. These people have already missed the best stock market rally of their lifetime but there may still be some upside left.....

US stocks cheapest in 20 yrs even after top rally since 1930s

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 27 Apr 2010 09:32

Sanjay M wrote:The Republicans are more likely to be nativists, while the Democrats are more likely to be extra-territorialists. This is because the Democrats are largely composed of special interest groups, which include extra-territorialists. And the most dominant among these extra-territorialists are the Europe-first crowd.

The democratic party is composed of Anglo-philes. Remember that Jefferson (like Gandhi) did not initially want independence from Britain - only more autonomy within the empire. The positions of both men were overtaken by historic events and movement - and both were forced by their followers to adopt a more pro-independence position. Also recall that the democratic party is the party of black slavery.

The effects on democratic party of the initial line is still prevalent - they are more 'internationalist' in their orientation. Which means that they are more aligned with the London based banking interests. DP's policy is to align the economies of developing countries to the benefit of this group. Hence the relentless pressure (on India, etc) to confirm to their worldview. The maximum noise about human rights, etc comes during DP time, because these are effective tools to embarass developing countries into opening up their economies.

The republicans represent a more home grown elite. Its source of power is not based (so much) on the international market. Hence they do not put pressure of developing countries to confirm to western diktats.

This is the reason India has warm relations with the US whenever RP is in power, and relations sink to the bottom when DP is there.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 27 Apr 2010 10:04

The Democratic Party is composed of Euro-philes, and the torch of Euro-phile activism keeps getting passed Eastward, to the countries/ethnicities who most need US intervention as a balancer against their neighbors -- ie. the smaller countries of Central/Eastern Europe, who are trapped between giants like Russia and Germany. These activist ethnic interest groups are therefore much more willing to engage in political pandering to other special interest groups in the US body politic.

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 28 Apr 2010 00:35

It seems like debt crisis in Europe which was simmering for a while has started to boil pretty good now........if this gets out of control we might see another global recession but this time it would be really scary (or even ghastly) since almost all of the govts are close to bankruptcy trying to spend their way outta recession of 2008. If a double dip starts in 2010, it'll leave this generation, our generation, deeply scarred and disfigured for rest of our life.

I hope the big three in EU would handle problems in their backyard by acting in-time and decisively. Recovery in developed world is too fragile, too slow and too young to handle another debt/credit meltdown, even if it is regional in nature.......

Europe debt crisis spreads to Portugal