Geopolitical thread

[ramana]

We should study the 30 year run up of World War I and II to see what options that a rising Germany had to avoid war and take its place in the community of nations.

SanjayM would you like to lead the discussion?

[VinodTK]

U.S. Consolidates Military Network In Asia-Pacific Region

The United States has six naval fleets and eleven aircraft carrier strike groups patrolling the world's oceans and seas. The U.S. Navy is as large as the world's next thirteen biggest navies combined

[svinayak]

We should study the 30 year run up of World War I and II to see what options that a rising Germany had to avoid war and take its place in the community of nations.

SanjayM would you like to lead the discussion?

Fundamentally the German War strategy and War doctrine was the biggest fault for the war to happen. War doctrine was followed to the letter.

Grand Strategies in War and Peace
Professor Paul Kennedy (Editor)

The essays on German and French policy also covered more than one war, making them useful for an analysis of how policy changes over time.
This book is a collection of some nine essays, each by an eminent authority (including future U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice). The first three essays look at British grand strategy during the War of the Spanish Succession, World War I and World War II. The next four essays look at the grand strategies of the Roman Empire, seventeenth century Imperial Spain, Imperial and Nazi German grand strategies, and French grand strategies in the two World Wars. The eighth essay (the one by Condoleezza Rice) looks at Communist Russia's grand strategies from the beginning of the Soviet Union to the Brezhnev era. The final essay was written by Paul Kennedy himself, and suggests how American grand strategy should look to function in a multipolar world where America has been overtaken by other powers in key measures of national preeminence.

[ramana]

I shouldn't have returned the book

[Paul]

Ramana... the Prussian Kautilya, Bismarck had presciently warned of the events tleading to WWI. It was a cornerstone of German foreign policy that France was to be isolated from other countries as he knew that the French would be itching to take revenge for the 1870 defeat and could not be amenable for peace. He also did not want to rile up Britain but the rapid build up of the high seas fleet in Kiel by the Kaiser and the race for the colonies in which Germany came in late were amongst the key reasons for France and Britain to join hands. The Kaiser was not savvy enough to understand Bismarck’s nuanced policy and his policy alienated Britain. On the other side of the continent, the Polyglot Hapsburg empre were struggling to keep their empire together and this was clashing with the Slavic nationalist sentiment.

India has done well so far in forestalling the key stakeholders of Pakistan from coming together in the aftermath of Berlin wall for a Talikota – II cataclysm to take India apart. Kudos to PVNR, ABV, and MMS for preserving the Indian from these days and setting us on the path to prosperity…& (hopefully) security.

The lesson for us is.....if a Talikota II befalls India, the calamity which fell on Europe(Germany) due to clumsy statemanship and warmongering will befall Asia(india) again and give the west enough breathing space to take the "white man's burden" role again.

[praksam]

An Interesting article by Andrew Tyrie. A littile old but worth a read.

Axis of Anarchy: Britain,America and New World order after Iraq.

http://fpc.org.uk/fsblob/80.pdf

[svinayak]

The lesson for us is.....if a Talikota II befalls India, the calamity which fell on Europe(Germany) due to clumsy statemanship and warmongering will befall Asia(india) again and give the west enough breathing space to take the "white man's burden" role again.

This is ruled out now due to demographic dominance of Asia. This is the single biggest factor in the world history from last century.

[ramana]

Paul, What Bismark was working on was tactics and not strategy. The real issue was not Germany's relations with France or Great Britian or what not. The real issue was how will Europe accomodate the rise of Germany from a collection of princely states to a modern-nation state? I think Kaiser etc thought of the old way of wars and force as the only option as they had developed industry and military forces. I think they did not understand the big picture. My question was what moves could Imperial Germany make that would avoid the destruction of the two world wars and still attain its due place? this is very pertinent to rise of India and Asia. In other words was war/military force the only option for Germany? Could they have weaned the French from the "Entente Cordiale" and come to terms with them? After all the current peace of Europe is due to this Franco-German accomodation. What options did they have and why were they not exercised.

[abhishek_sharma]

State Department to leave Chechen rebel group off terror list

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts ... error_list

[Carl_T]

State Department to leave Chechen rebel group off terror list

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts ... error_list

Curiously, this Islamist group has been subtly begging for aid from the US for years now...while I doubt they actually get anything from the US, it is probably meant as a rebuke to Russia over Iran.

[ramana]

Why does Zbig favor propping PRC instead of others in his latest polemic?

[Paul]

Ramana, According to some sources Bismarck was against forcing France to give away Alsace Lorraine to Germany. He did not want to permanently create a state of hatred between the two countries…which unfortunately for Europe did not happen and create a rivalry which lasted for many generations.

If the deliberations over Shimla agreement are any pointer, India has learnt these lessons well. PN Haksar, IG’s part of her kitchen cabinet had argued against a repetition of Versailles agreement which humiliated Germany and sowed the seeds for WWII. We have also refrained from taking any drastic action against Pakistan due to which there is still communication with their civil society….Only the future will can tell us as to the wisdom of this approach.

[Paul]

Why does Zbig favor propping PRC instead of others in his latest polemic?

Cuz' he thinks PRC is a neighbour's neighbour (to Poland)????

[Sanjay M]

We should study the 30 year run up of World War I and II to see what options that a rising Germany had to avoid war and take its place in the community of nations.

SanjayM would you like to lead the discussion?

I think the rise of industrialization and the unnatural strengthening of Britain and France through colonialism is what led to confrontation which might not have otherwise occurred. The waning Turks were also poor allies for the Germans to join hands with.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_ ... ted_States

But the main thing was that the Germans failed to anticipate the Anglo-American lobby's ability to bring about American intervention in the War, with its decisive effects. Because of America's disproportionate size, any US intervention would have inevitably tipped the scales overwhelmingly to one side, just as it later did against Japan in Asia.

It's therefore useful to look at the competitive jockeying among competing foreign lobbies in the US in that period.

[Sanjay M]

Why does Zbig favor propping PRC instead of others in his latest polemic?

Because my enemy's enemy is my friend? PRC is the biggest giant sitting next to hated blood-enemy Russia. And PRC's ever-expanding needs allow a hope for Zbig that China will one day be munching on Siberia.

During the 60s, Zbig ardently touted the need for Japan as the 3rd corner of his Trilateralist alliance. But after all these decades, now that aging Japan is on the wane, and bigboy China is waiting in the wings, he doesn't mind discarding Japan like a used condom, as they're of no use to him anymore. His preferred US political party, the Europe-centred Democrats, thus have little time for Japan, while kowtowing to China at every opportunity.

The power of European extra-territorialist lobbyist old-boy networks to distort US foreign policy has then led to the corrosion of US-Japan relations and the concomitant rise of China. The current estrangement of Japan from the US due to a newly arisen socialist-led revolt isn't the final resting place. That socialist govt is unlikely to be able to fulfill its wanton promises to the Japanese people, and will instead reap the political fallout from their discontent and disillusionment as Japan's economic slump continues. As with Hungary, it's the nationalist right who will ultimately get elected, proposing new solutions to Japan's predicament.

Japan has truly gotten itself trapped in a geo-political and economic corner, because of blind faith in their corrupt LDP and its tenuous relations with an American sugar-daddy. The Japanese Geisha is now abandoned and forlorn.

This is what happens when you don't have sufficient local representation in the court of the AmeriKhanate.
Washington-based Zbig & Co seem to know that all too well.

[Sanjay M]

The Russians don't seem to be terribly worried. There is no Chechen-style insurgency going on in Siberia - it's just too cold to fight over.

Perhaps the Russians and Chinese are so jointly antagonized by the Americans, that they don't find mutual encroachment to be a high priority. Their cooperation in the Shanghai-5 organization has closed off a major potential route for meddling in the Russian Far East.

If only the Chinese had taken a similar attitude towards Tibet.

[ramana]

Why does Zbig favor propping PRC instead of others in his latest polemic?

I think its a combination of factors: Samuel Huntington's Clash of Civilizations which says Sino-Islamic collusion, PRC by itself wont command universal acclaim unless i changes itself very deeply- sort of make a butterfly out of a caterpillar

Note Zbig B, Sam H and Henry K were all together as students in mid 50s at Columbia Uty.

[svinayak]

The Russians don't seem to be terribly worried. There is no Chechen-style insurgency going on in Siberia - it's just too cold to fight over.

Perhaps the Russians and Chinese are so jointly antagonized by the Americans, that they don't find mutual encroachment to be a high priority. Their cooperation in the Shanghai-5 organization has closed off a major potential route for meddling in the Russian Far East.

If only the Chinese had taken a similar attitude towards Tibet.

Tibet is a anglo Han project with long term goal to control the Tibet Buddism religion by the west and heart of asia.
This is ongoing project.

[sum]

X-post:

Very interesting article:
New Triangle Of Power

A Fulbright scholar,external affairs minister S M Krishna has doubtless read Niccolo Machiavellis Art of War and Chanakyas Arthashastra.Together,the two treatises define the dark science of diplomacy.In todays fraught geostrategic environment,they also teach useful lessons in the conduct of foreign policy.
Indias two defining international relationships are with the US and China.The US sees India as a natural counterweight to China.But Americas realpolitik is Machiavellian.It wants India to play the role of a permanent junior partner much as Britain has done from the 1950s to the present while it pursues its own global objectives.
However,if it leverages its economic and demographic strengths with Chanakyas finesse,India can rapidly emerge as Americas most important global partner instead of a perennially anxious supplicant.US GDP is $14.70 trillion.Indias GDP (by purchasing power parity) is nearly $4 trillion.Assuming an average annual growth rate of 7.25 per cent between 2010 and 2040 (a reasonable trendline-based extrapolation),Indias GDP will increase eightfold to $32 trillion within 30 years.Assuming,further,an average annual growth rate of 2.40 per cent (an equally reasonable trendline extrapolation given a low American savings rate of 4 per cent and a high budget deficit of over $1 trillion),US GDP will double to $29 trillion during the same period.Thus in 30 years,Indias economy using a mathematical model that factors in several economic and demographic variables will be larger than Americas.
This is not fiction but cold,hard fact.US think tanks have come to the same broad conclusion.So has the Obama administration.Few in South Block though recognise its far-reaching implications on the rapidly changing balance of global power.Chinese strategists,in contrast,fully recognise these implications.Similar extrapolations,assuming average annual Chinese GDP growth at a slower average annual trendline rate of 6 per cent,place Chinas GDP at $48 trillion in 2040 50 per cent larger than both the US and India.China is clearly the elephant in the room and already behaves like one.
Chinas principal global objective is to regain its 16-century Middle Kingdom status as the worlds pre-eminent world power an era in which the US did not even exist.From this broad aim flow several others.One,military parity with the US.Two,economic superiority over the US.Three,reintegration with Taiwan.Four,settlement of Tibet.And five,proving to the world that its alternative non-Anglo-Saxon political model can bring sustained economic prosperity to one-and-a-half billion people.
As the third angle in the isosceles triangle of Great Powers in 2040,Indias foreign policy must be at once more sublime and more muscular.India,like China,represents the future,America the present,Europe the past.
Americas history provides many clues to its current behaviour.It was founded by working class families escaping religious persecution from newly-Protestant England 425 years ago.These English settlers (Britain as a nation had not yet been formed) liquidated indigenous Indians,appropriated their land and shipped slave labour from Africa to work the fields.
As the US won independence and grew more powerful,it invaded Mexico and by 1848 had annexed what are today California,Texas,Arizona,Colorado,Nevada,Utah,Wyoming and New Mexico.By the 1890s,it had colonised the Philippines and built a silent empire arching from the Pacific to the Atlantic.After World War II it invaded Korea,Vietnam and Grenada and propped up dictators and puppet-monarchs in Latin America and the Middle East (including the early Saddam Hussein and the sybaritic Shah of Iran).It made a pact with the Sheikhs of the post-Ottoman Middle East to deny Arab citizens voting rights in return for US military protection ostensibly against Israel but in reality against popular democratic movements in their own countries.
With such a colourful past,it is hardly surprising that the US continues to follow a ruthlessly self-interested foreign policy in South Asia to secure its geopolitical goals.But both the US and China have an Achilles heel.The US is a declining power.By 2040,it will not only be relegated to the status of the worlds third largest economy (after China and India) but it will also for the first time in its history become a blackmajority country.African-Americans,Latinos and Asians comprise 34 per cent of Americas population today.By 2040,that figure will rise to 51 per cent.The implications of this demographic shift will resonate across social,ethnic,economic and cultural boundaries.
As Indias own demographic dividend kicks in,New Delhis bargaining power with a declining US and a communist China sitting on a tinderbox of suppressed peoples freedoms will grow if South Block gets its strategy right.That strategy involves deepening Indias economic and diplomatic engagement with Africa and (Brazil-led ) Latin America,influencing the course of the Arab-Israeli dialogue over Palestine and using old military and economic ties with Russia to our advantage in tackling the post-US Af-Pak world with its scattered terrorist threats.
All of this requires a ministry of external affairs with intellectual depth and strategic vision and the ability to project both globally.Sadly,the current MEA falls short.In an emerging tripolar world,the stewardship of Indias foreign policy needs firmer hands and clearer minds.

[svinayak]

All of this requires a ministry of external affairs with intellectual depth and strategic vision and the ability to project both globally.Sadly,the current MEA falls short.In an emerging tripolar world,the stewardship of Indias foreign policy needs firmer hands and clearer minds.

It is about the entire team and ruling regime. It is not about one minister or one ministry or a few people in the leadership. Taking India to a leading nation requires leadership and vision.

[Sanjay M]

India has never acted as a single cohesive coherent unified entity, and everybody knows that, especially foreign powers. The history of how the British took over India speaks loudly to the world. They see us as we really are, and not as how we would like them to see us.

[svinayak]

India has never acted as a single cohesive coherent unified entity, and everybody knows that, especially foreign powers. The history of how the British took over India speaks loudly to the world. They see us as we really are, and not as how we would like them to see us.

Indian leadership has to figure this out.
It had enough time for the last 60 years to create a ruling regime for the people instead of doing social engineering as the British ruling class.

[Prem]

All of this requires a ministry of external affairs with intellectual depth and strategic vision and the ability to project both globally.Sadly,the current MEA falls short.In an emerging tripolar world,the stewardship of Indias foreign policy needs firmer hands and clearer minds.

It is about the entire team and ruling regime. It is not about one minister or one ministry or a few people in the leadership. Taking India to a leading nation requires leadership and vision.

We have talked about GDP/ Economic figures doing Bhangra after 2020 and changing the face and fate of India for ever. Forget 2040, by2030 the game will be over for old massars amd masseys.
Tragically , we never had visionary leadership. Between Overconfident Nehru amd Non confident MMS we just got few years of Rao and ABV and we are reaping the fruits of their farsighted vison. But how long can we live on the laurels of these2 when many VP Singhs, Arjan Singhs and Yandhavs are hiding behind the door. Thye need of the hour is to have vision of India and not South Asia . India need to carry parasites on her back. This South Asia hotair is just another one of the torpedo invented by Foggy Bottom to sink Indian chance of breaking free.

[abhishek_sharma]

White House proposed taking development role away from State

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts ... from_state

The White House is moving closer to finishing a sweeping review of U.S. development strategy that aims to put development on par with diplomacy and defense as a "central pillar" of U.S. national security, according to sources familiar with the issue.

[derkonig]

^^^^
Here come the 5 year plans under Hussain Obama, Gen Secy of the Commie Party of Amrika (aka dhimmicrats). Welcome to the new Soviet Union.

[abhishek_sharma]

Japanese lawmaker: Obama pushing us toward China

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts ... ward_china

[Philip]

The USA,"United Soviets of America",have mortgaged the security of Asia to China quite some time back,during the days of Comrade Clinton.Comrade Clinton,bankrolled by the PRC allegedly also had excellent "ties" with a female Chinese agent whose father was a top PLA general in charge of intel.Comrade Clinton thus turned a blind eye to the PRC's nuclear proliferation both by Pak and NoKo.He also allowed the PRC through one of its agents to "steal" the entire portfolio of UN nuclear secrets from Lawrence Livermore Labs!

Marshal Bush then took out a further mortgage on the US economy with the Bank of Beijing to finance his latter-day Crusades in Iraq and Afghanistan and warring against "terror" with the sons of Ishmael.Beijing was Uncle Sam's blue-eyed boy,flavour of the century.However,while the building boom in Beijing and other parts of the PRC saw a boom,thanks to generosity of the Bankers of Wall St.,to themselves first with ballooning bonuses and then scattering the crumbs,loans to all and sundry,the US economy went bust.To save themselves,US bankers and administrators squeezed out as much moolah from the rest of the world triggering a global recesion bordering upon a depression,saving themselves and the rump of their financial institutions by simply printing more "paper"! This has paupered the US of A,which now after Comrade Gen-Sec. Obama's Health Bill passing,has metamorphed the US of A into the Western equivalent of the former Soviet Union.While capitalists and oligarchs flourish in once Communist Russia,the egalitarian Socialist vision of Comrade Obama is now taking the US on a similar road ,where totalitarianism rules and the state will henceforth decide and look after the needs of the masses,ever mindful of the credo that "some comrades are more equal than others"!

Let us comrades now sing the Internationale....

[csharma]

Cross posting from Copenhagen thread

Now Der Spigel blames India and China for the failed Copenhagen summit.

There is a video of the secret recordings during the actual negotiations.

It seems they expect Europeans will come up with a draft and everyone will accept it. They are surprised when India and China don't. Imagine the frustration of these powers when Obama negotiated with CIBSA without the Europeans and got an agreement.

Btw, both India and China are not represented by their PMs while the Europeans and the US are. From the voice, I am guessing Jairam Ramesh might have been in the meeting.



http://www.spiegel.de/international/wor ... 61,00.html

How China and India Sabotaged the UN Climate Summit

What really went on at the UN climate conference in Copenhagen? Secret recordings obtained by SPIEGEL reveal how China and India prevented an agreement on tackling climate change at the crucial meeting. The powerless Europeans were forced to look on as the agreement failed.
At some point his patience was at an end, as depleted as the oxygen in the small conference room. He could no longer keep still, not even for a second.


The words suddenly burst out of French President Nicolas Sarkozy: "I say this with all due respect and in all friendship." Everyone in the room, which included two dozen heads of state, knew that he meant precisely the opposite of what he was saying. "With all due respect to China," the French president continued, speaking in French.

As if viewed through a magnifying glass, the contours of a new political world order become visible, one shaped by the new self-confidence of the Asians and the powerlessness of the West.

What a humiliation it was for Chancellor Merkel. Photos were taken later on that showed her wearing a pink silk blazer, but with her face looking gray and exhausted. She attempted to show the world a dignified façade, speaking of a "new world climate order" that had been reached in Copenhagen. But speaking privately after the meeting, it was clear that she was furious about its failure. She swore to herself that she would not risk the same kind of humiliation again. The chancellor was deeply disturbed by the Chinese and Indian show of power, as well as by Obama's maneuvering.

But the meeting did not reconvene. The key decisions were made elsewhere -- without the Europeans. The Indians had reserved a room one floor down, where Prime Minister Singh met with his counterparts, Brazilian President Lula da Silva and South Africa President Jacob Zuma. Wen Jiabao was also there.

Shortly before 7 p.m., US President Obama burst into the cozy little meeting of rising economic powers.

At that meeting, everything that was important to the Europeans was removed from the draft agreement, particularly the concrete emissions reduction targets. Later on, the Europeans -- like the other diplomats from all the other powerless countries, who had been left to wait in the plenary chamber -- had no choice but to rubberstamp the meager result.

[naren]

The powerless Europeans were forced to look on as the agreement failed.

Oirope !!! you & I have a score to settle *kill bill ambulance music rolls*

What a humiliation it was for Chancellor Merkel. Photos were taken later on that showed her wearing a pink silk blazer, but with her face looking gray and exhausted.

Time to order bush massage. No, I mean the person Bush.

[abhischekcc]

There's no question that the combination of resolutely irreligious Chinese commercialism, consumerism and ruthlessness ambition has begun to fill the vacuum left in Central Asia by communism's retreat, and will reduce the space for militant Islam.

However, the PRC has also become the largest investor in Gilgit-Baltistan - they're building a dam at Bunji, electric generation and distribution, paying for the widening of the Karakoram highway, and soon the addition of a railway line as well. The Chinese stakes in the preservation of stability in Pakistan are growing rather than diminishing. China in terms of aid, trade and investment will within a decade far surpass the US in its economic impact on Pakistan.

The conditions you describe have historically been the strongest fuel to the fire of Islamic fundamentalists, because they allow the jehadis to claim economic discrimination is taking place and also create a large number of losers who become ready recruits to the Islamic cause.

This becomes especially potent when economic growth takes place under dictatorial conditions, which is the case in Central Asia. Because it adds potency to the arguments of the jehadis.

Central Asia is unlikely to escape this combination.

What is even more likely is that CE will become a conduit of jehad into China.

[brihaspati]

The Gilgit Baltistan adventure of the Chinese may actually be standing on literally shaking grounds. I have posted some news items on the "liberation" thread, which shows that even a small landslide has dammed up the Hunza area and in spite of lot of high hopes the Chinese experts have not been able to solve the problem as well as clear the KKH blockage. Moreover the locals are watching it all - it seems.

[ramana]

^^^ Another interpretation is that while the US-PRC close embrace G-2 is flailing, India and PRC are combining tactically to reduce Western Europe's weight. We can expect more of this on case by case basis. First priority is to reduce Western Europe's geo-political weight in all methods short of war.

Germany shouldn't feel bad and stand aside for it wasnt a colonial pwoer that messed up Asia. Taking umbrage at this is self defeating.

[Paul]

BTW....I submit that it is in Indian interests to have PRC hotly contest Siberia. For this will remove PRC axis from the Pak-PRC containment axis.

Similarly...Japan will not be unhappy to see a hot India-PRC contest over Tibet.

[svinayak]

BTW....I submit that it is in Indian interests to have PRC hotly contest Siberia. For this will remove PRC axis from the Pak-PRC containment axis.

Similarly...Japan will not be unhappy to see a hot India-PRC contest over Tibet.

It is a domino effect.

If PRC goes after Siberia then Russia becomes weak and no longer a geo-political power. Then PRC can work with the US to go after rest of Asia including India.
Russia will not go after PRC since it cannot expand anymore from its historical max.
Right now Russia and India are under the target of PRC which is a proxy power of US/west.

[Prem]

Hope Indian Strategic thinkers , if they exists, are aware of the opeprtunities available to them provided by the daily declining of the current major players in geopolitic. Does this current collasping of New Roman Empire resembles that of Old one with Asian Huns giving the final Jhatka?

[Carl_T]

BTW....I submit that it is in Indian interests to have PRC hotly contest Siberia. For this will remove PRC axis from the Pak-PRC containment axis.

Similarly...Japan will not be unhappy to see a hot India-PRC contest over Tibet.

I believe it is in US best interests to have a three-way clash between India, Russia and China. US can trigger this if it simply increases military relations with India and pushes it away from Russia. Bush saw that......

[Paul]

This is why I used the word there should be a hotl contest. , not control, the process of acquiring control will not happen overnight and will require considerable military, diplomatic, and economic resources. There is a limited congruence of interests between India and Atlanticists here.

A hot contest spanning several years if not decades will draw PRC resources away from the subcontinent and enable India to break the Pak-PRC containment axis. This will also enable India to reunify the subcontinent on it’s own terms and deal with the west on better terms.

[ramana]

Its not in Indian interests to have a hot war in Asia.
Early on Mao drank some kool aid and precipitated the 1962 mess. But they are also realising the importance of this goal.

[Paul]

I agree that it is not in Indian interests to have a war in Asia...as all Asians have suffered over the past few centuries.

But Indian interests have also suffered from pre-communist Russian expansion in Asia ( concede that the loss is to a lesser extent than Anglo-saxon meddling but still a loss). Indian banking influence was felt all over CA and was rolled back by Tsarist Russia. This needs to be rolled back for India to gain access to the old trade routes of CA.

Russia is not an asiatic power.

[svinayak]

Indian banking influence was felt all over CA and was rolled back by Tsarist Russia. This needs to be rolled back for India to gain access to the old trade routes of CA.

Russia is not an asiatic power.

Current Russia is not Tzarist Russia.