Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 2010)

[Pranav]

Btw, making sure that prices don't change (0% inflation) is price fixing, but making sure that prices change by only 1% (1% inflation target) is also price fixing. Whether you fix the price change at 0% or 1%, you are still intentionally fixing it through a deliberate policy.

One should call it inflation fixing, rather than price fixing. The goal is to protect the value of the fruits of people's labour, to not let unscrupulous elements perpetrate transfers of wealth through monetary manipulation.

[Neshant]

Neshant, you're right about the Gold Standard. also, another interesting observation is that this bail out culture in the US began in the early 70's after US went off the gold standard.

but going back to it now is pure insanity. i'd like to hear any proposals that would result in going back to the gold standard, without inflicting a multi-decade depression???

and yes, it will be a multi decade depression b/c the money contraction will be about 17 times. total currency value is 17 times the value of total gold reserves in the whole world.

I see no easy way to deleverage out of the paper ponzi scheme and get onto the gold standard. Any attempt to deleverage out of this fraudlent scheme is likely to crash the system. The current plan is to have the govt go deeper and deeper into the red to keep the party going and pray that some new, productive job producing industry like IT comes along within the next 12 to 18 months to justify this wreckless spending. Taking on debt to push money round and round looks like an act in futility to me nevertheless.

Real estate, insurance, banking and other such paper shuffling games do not fit the bill of a new let alone productive industry. They are not industries that generate any wealth for the country. If recent history is anything to go by, they subtract from the total wealth of the country by skimming, gaming and living off it in a most parasitic manner.

I'm talking about a real industry that has a productivity component to it like the entry of computers into the workforce or the advent of the internet. Something like that needs to arise and soon. Some major breakthrough in genetics that paves the way to replacable body parts, the discovery of anti-gravity and how it works..etc. Its needs to be something of that magnitude. Goldman sachs and other banking goons playing around are only sapping the strength left in the economy and bringing the fiat system closer to its doom.

I'm afraid we are all locked in for this major crash one way or another. It will wipe the slate clean in the most painful way. Painful espcially if you are a producer of wealth and a saver of worthless fiat.

The only good thing I see coming out of the inevitable crash is the re-establishment of the gold standard. Wealth & economic freedom will shift back to the hands of the people who actually produce goods in society and away from those robbing others through paper scams.

[Pranav]

The only good thing I see coming out of the inevitable crash is the re-establishment of the gold standard. Wealth & economic freedom will shift back to the hands of the people who actually produce goods in society and away from those robbing others through paper scams.

The people who are running the paper scams are also pretty good at gold scams ... recall the last Great Depression.

The families that were running the gold scam then are now running the paper scams, and they can very well go back to gold scamming, this time on a global scale.

[Sanjay M]

Btw, making sure that prices don't change (0% inflation) is price fixing, but making sure that prices change by only 1% (1% inflation target) is also price fixing. Whether you fix the price change at 0% or 1%, you are still intentionally fixing it through a deliberate policy.

One should call it inflation fixing, rather than price fixing. The goal is to protect the value of the fruits of people's labour, to not let unscrupulous elements perpetrate transfers of wealth through monetary manipulation.

Whatever the goal is claimed to be, the reality is quite obviously different for us all to see.
Inflation fixing is price fixing - it is interventionism and liable to abuse. And it is resulting in illicit wealth transfer, from the responsible to the irresponsible.

Meanwhile, Geithner is fighting to prevent any return to Glass-Steigall partition:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 18148.html

If things continue with the Too-Big-to-Fail mindset, then the money of responsible people will continue to be used to bail out the irresponsible people. This is illicit wealth transfer, and it is a product of monetarist desire to 'fix' things, rather than allow a natural solution.

[Pranav]

One should call it inflation fixing, rather than price fixing. The goal is to protect the value of the fruits of people's labour, to not let unscrupulous elements perpetrate transfers of wealth through monetary manipulation.

Whatever the goal is claimed to be, the reality is quite obviously different for us all to see.
Inflation fixing is price fixing - it is interventionism and liable to abuse. And it is resulting in illicit wealth transfer, from the responsible to the irresponsible.

It is true that fiat currencies can be abused, just as the gold standard can.

That is why the mechanisms have to be made totally transparent, with no scope for arbitrariness. You can't have privately owned central banks, immune from audit - such as the Fed.

[Sanjay M]

The problem is that you can't have publicly owned banks immune from populism. Populist institutions will always seek to ease the burdens of society, at the cost of making it flabby and unhealthy. That's what moral hazard and bailouts are all about.

Sometimes there has to be "creative destruction"

[vina]

View of North Koreans show how a policy spread misery

Fidel Castro can yell, "Socialism OR Death!". In fact, it is "Socialism AND Death!" . Just look at what the "model" socialist country that Karat & Co want to turn India into is like today.

Some of that stuff like Currency devaluation / exchanging old notes for new is straight out of the playbook of the Kangress under Indira Gandhi's heydey socialism. It is such a tragedy. In fact, the biggest mass murdering ideology after religion is it's cousin masquerading in the secular garb (okay, Communism is just another religion with no divinity, but materialism standing in for divinity).

[Pranav]

The problem is that you can't have publicly owned banks immune from populism. Populist institutions will always seek to ease the burdens of society, at the cost of making it flabby and unhealthy. That's what moral hazard and bailouts are all about.

Sometimes there has to be "creative destruction"

It is not really possible to use monetary policy to ease burdens on society - because you can't create something out of nothing. You can at best transfer wealth.

I think that the vast majority would support a prudent monetary policy - because typically monetary manipulation ends up benefiting few at the cost of many.

But the mechanisms have to be made fully transparent, so that there can be no possibility of cheating. If a nation is not living up to its stated policy, then that would become apparent to all, pretty much instantly, just like a stock-market index. Then savers would have the option of keeping their money in another currency, that does live up to its declared commitments.

[Sanjay M]

Bailouts are very public, because they are openly and nakedly demanded

Populism can be done very openly, so that the irresponsible people in need of bailout run roughshod over the responsible people who end up bailing them out

That's what bailouts are all about - naked populism

[Pranav]

Bailouts are very public, because they are openly and nakedly demanded

Populism can be done very openly, so that the irresponsible people in need of bailout run roughshod over the responsible people who end up bailing them out

That's what bailouts are all about - naked populism

Bailout are public, but not transparent. If the bailouts are being funded by "quantitative easing" i.e. printing money, then the the impact is not transparent to the public.

What I have been suggesting is -

(1) a large, diverse basket of commodities and services to which the currency will be linked. The items in the basket and their weights should be publicly declared. Largeness and diversity is necessary to avoid the danger of monopolization, which would be there if the basket were to contain only a single commodity like gold. Labour should be an important component of the basket, because labour can never be monopolized (unless you have a slave society).
(2) a declared inflation target in terms of that basket (can be zero % if desired)
(3) an index which will continuously track the value of the currency in terms of the basket.
(4) a transparent feedback mechanism which will adjust monetary policy so as to maintain the value of the currency.

In addition, one needs some barriers prevent to uncontrolled inflows and outflows of money, and some laws to prevent foreign ownership of core assets.

[abhishek_sharma]

The Seductiveness Of Demands For Pain

Paul Krugman

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/0 ... -for-pain/

[yogi]

(1) a large, diverse basket of commodities and services to which the currency will be linked. The items in the basket and their weights should be publicly declared. Largeness and diversity is necessary to avoid the danger of monopolization, which would be there if the basket were to contain only a single commodity like gold. Labour should be an important component of the basket, because labour can never be monopolized (unless you have a slave society).

Perhaps a formula like:

1 gram Gold == 10 days of Labor @ 8 Hr per day == 50 Litres of Milk == 75 Gms of Silver == 100 Packets of Bread == 20 Kilos of Apples ... and so on.

This will ensure a fair price to a daily wage laborer, and will better help people plan for their life ahead. All retirement planning simplified.

[Pranav]

(1) a large, diverse basket of commodities and services to which the currency will be linked. The items in the basket and their weights should be publicly declared. Largeness and diversity is necessary to avoid the danger of monopolization, which would be there if the basket were to contain only a single commodity like gold. Labour should be an important component of the basket, because labour can never be monopolized (unless you have a slave society).

Perhaps a formula like:

1 gram Gold == 10 days of Labor @ 8 Hr per day == 50 Litres of Milk == 75 Gms of Silver == 100 Packets of Bread == 20 Kilos of Apples ... and so on.

This will ensure a fair price to a daily wage laborer, and will better help people plan for their life ahead. All retirement planning simplified.

Well, you don't want to set the relative values of the items in the basket. That will be determined by the market.

The items chosen for the basket should have many independent producers and consumers - then it is easy to discover the market price. Also, the basket needs to reflect the cost of living for a typical person. For example, wheat might be a good candidate to put into the basket.

[Neshant]

The people who are running the paper scams are also pretty good at gold scams

There are no gold scams because gold is the only honest money that has stood the test of time for 4000 years. Nobody who has ever paid another in gold for his labor has ever been accused of scamming. Meanwhile not a single fiat currency has ever escaped being exposed as worthless over time. Its quoted somewhere that the average lifespan of the over 3000 extinct fiat currencies is a mere 60 years.

Scams arise anytime paper pushers try to insert themselves as middlemen between a person and the fruits of his labor - which is all the rage at the moment. Paper pushers produce nothing and therefore are required to devise means of living off producers through scams.

I often notice Keynesian economics requires long winded convoluted explainations to justify its existance. Really its just an effort in trying to fool and mislead the public about the inherent dishonesty of the system. Once a person sifts through the BS, one finds its just a system designed to perpetuate the existance of the worthless middle man ``industry`` which is a drain on any productive member of society.

This fraud is coming to an end and with it the livelyhood of all these middle men who will need to get real jobs.

[Pranav]

The people who are running the paper scams are also pretty good at gold scams

There are no gold scams because gold is the only honest money that has stood the test of time for 4000 years. Nobody who has ever paid another in gold for his labor has ever been accused of scamming. .... Really its just an effort in trying to fool and mislead the public about the inherent dishonesty of the system. Once a person sifts through the BS, one finds its just a system designed to perpetuate the existance of the worthless middle man ``industry`` which is a drain on any productive member of society.

This fraud is coming to an end and with it the livelyhood of all these middle men who will need to get real jobs.

Try to find out how many boom-bust cycles (and wealth transfers) the US was put through till 1933, while on the gold standard.

One historical resource, published in 1889, is "Great Red Dragon (or London Money Power)" by LB Woodfolk http://books.google.co.in/books?id=d2OS ... &q&f=false or http://www.biblestudysite.com/reddragon.htm

(caveat: I don't necessarily agree with all Woodfolk's theories, but there is some interesting historical information.)

[Neshant]

Looks like a bunch of anti-semitic tripe.

Misrepresentation of money with worthless paper thats counterfeited by a cartel of middlemen each taking a cut is undeniably a fraud.

I predict the federal reserve will be dissolved within the next 5 to 10 years when the next major crash occurs.

[Pranav]

Looks like a bunch of anti-semitic tripe.

Although I am not necessarily endorsing everything in Woodfolk's book, many of the things he says are consonant with the works of well-recognized authors and historians like Carroll Quigley, Arnold Toynbee, Rabbi Marvin S. Antelman, and many others. However, these things are not taught in school history textbooks, nor are discussed in mainstream media. It is not uncommon for folks to lash out in this manner, when exposed to facts that they have not heard of before. This thread may be of interest: http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 25&start=0 .

Be that as it may, our concern here is with boom-bust cycles, and wealth transfers, in an economy on the gold standard. I'd be happy to hear any substantive comments. Do you wish to claim that such boom-bust cycles and wealth transfers are not possible, or have never happened while the US was on a gold standard?

[mnag]

Soros: Risk Of Double Dip Recession Can't Be Ruled Out
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-201 ... inesEurope

VIENNA (Dow Jones)--The risk of a double dip recession due to current European public finances woes can't be ruled out, as credit problems are forcing European countries to accelerate fiscal consolidation, financier George Soros told a banking conference in Vienna Thursday.

Credit default swaps, which aim to protect creditors against the risk of a default, can be particularly dangerous if they are not used as proper hedging tools, Soros said.

"They are a license to kill". They should only be used if "you have an insurable interest," Soros said.

So-called naked CDS are used by investors who haven't bought or made arrangements to borrow the underlying security, and have come under fire for being purely speculative tools.

Soros is most famous for his role as a currency speculator, making a reported $1 billion in 1992 by betting against the British pound and being described as "the man who broke the bank of England."

"The effects of the Greek crisis will be felt worldwide," Soros said, because the sovereign debt crisis in Europe is forcing the bloc's economies into fiscal consolidation at a time when the economic recovery is still fragile.

"A double dip [recession] can't be ruled out", Soros said.

He added that one of the goals of public policies should be to prevent the emergence of asset bubbles, as financial markets are incapable of correcting their own imbalances.

[svinayak]

From Eurozone it will affect US economy in a few mths.
Then After US -> China will get affected.

After China -> India will get affected. This cycle will continue

So, when will it hit the UKstan?

"The effects of the Greek crisis will be felt worldwide," Soros said, because the sovereign debt crisis in Europe is forcing the bloc's economies into fiscal consolidation at a time when the economic recovery is still fragile.

"A double dip [recession] can't be ruled out", Soros said.

UK has assets in USD and EURO and hence is hedged somewhat. But its debt will be too big for them handle with demographic disadvantage. They may delay a little more

[Suraj]

Has Soros said anything about the debt situation in his native Hungary ?

[svinayak]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hyperi ... link=MW-FB

Bearish Schultz says hyperinflation may happen suddenly
Commentary: Crash-predicting letter says recovery might not come until 2028
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Stocks continue to flounder. A remarkable veteran editor says get used to it.

Harry Schultz' International Harry Schultz Letter was one of 2009's top 10 performers because it ran with the rally. ( See Dec. 28, 2009, column.) And I named it Letter of the Year for 2008 because it undeniably did predict the crash, although by Hulbert Financial Digest count it didn't benefit, for various technical reasons. ( See Dec. 28, 2008, column.)

Despite 2008, IHSL's longer-term record remains strong. Over the past five years, the letter has achieved an 11.39% annualized gain, vs. 1.02% annualized for the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000 Total Stock Market Index. Over the past 10 years, it has achieved a 6.12% annualized gain, vs. 0.22% annualized for the total return Wilshire.

Schultz specialized in grand theorizing, and his current Big Idea, based on pure intuition as far as I can see, is that stocks and the economy will head down, then up, in two 10-years swings, complicated by counter-trend rallies like that of 2009-10.

[Neshant]

The fradulent economic system based on counterfeiting money and a useless middleman 'industry' will eventually have to be done away with. I fear its not going to be before a whole lot of productive and financially responsible people in society are destroyed by it.

------
"Black Swan" author: Debt spreading like a cancer

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37610064

Excerpt:

The economic situation today is drastically worse than a couple years ago, and the euro is doomed as a concept, Nassim Taleb, professor and author of the bestselling book "The Black Swan," told CNBC on Thursday.

"We had less debt cumulatively (two years ago), and more people employed. Today, we have more risk in the system, and a smaller tax base," Taleb said.

"Banks balance sheets are just as bad as they were" two years ago when the crisis began and "the quality of the risks hasn't improved," he added.

The root of the crisis over the past couple of years wasn't recession, but debt, which has spread "like a cancer," according to Taleb, who is now relived that public attention has shifted to debt, instead of growth.

The world needs to prepare itself for austerity, he warned. "We need to slash debt. Unfortunately, that's the only solution," Taleb said.

Other analysts warned about austerity programs spreading from the euro zone to the US where the growth in debt will become unsustainable over the longer term.

Obama administration's efforts to pull the US out of recession haven't succeeded, according to Taleb. "It's not that they make mistakes, it's that they almost get nothing right." Moreover, a second major stimulus package may be futile, he warned.

"Obama promised us 8 percent unemployment through stimulus. It hasn't worked." There are significantly more liabilities in the US than in other countries around the world, he said.

"Don't give a junkie more drugs, don't give a debt junkie more debt."

[Sanjay M]

3-parter on how the European debt crisis happened:

http://www.mint.com/blog/trends/europea ... is-part-1/

http://www.mint.com/blog/trends/europea ... ed-part-2/

http://www.mint.com/blog/trends/europea ... es-part-3/

[derkonig]

Obama administration's efforts to pull the US out of recession haven't succeeded, according to Taleb. "It's not that they make mistakes, it's that they almost get nothing right."

AoA onlee. I wonder what Hussain's fanbois have to say about their messiah.

[Sanjay M]

Obama administration's efforts to pull the US out of recession haven't succeeded, according to Taleb. "It's not that they make mistakes, it's that they almost get nothing right."

AoA onlee. I wonder what Hussain's fanbois have to say about their messiah.

Only Nixon can go to China. Only Obama can tighten the left-wing belts. But he won't have to, as long as China keeps lending him money. If (when) China's real estate bubble collapses, this will force China to pull back a lot of its foreign capital in order to maintain its own liquidity, and to sustain stimulus spending to avoid lots of unemployed restless masses.


Nobel Prize-winning Economist Robert Mundell advocates US intervention in the exchange rate:


Such intervention could push the Japanese and Germans back into their own recessions.

[Sanjay M]

Uncertainty Restores Glitter to an Old Refuge, Gold (NYT)

If governments print more money to pay off their debts, the logic goes, inflation will destroy the value of the dollar, the euro and other paper currencies — thus enhancing the value of gold. What is more, with tax increases unlikely and with Europe on the brink, the unthinkable — a sovereign debt default or the collapse of the credit system — has suddenly become thinkable.

“Indebted countries may soon be forced to choose among three politically difficult alternatives: sharp cuts in expenditures, debt default or printing money to pay off debt,” he said, with the last option the most likely outcome. Gold, he said, is a logical hedge against this risk, because firing up the printing presses ignites inflation.

[ramana]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hyperi ... link=MW-FB

Bearish Schultz says hyperinflation may happen suddenly
Commentary: Crash-predicting letter says recovery might not come until 2028
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Stocks continue to flounder. A remarkable veteran editor says get used to it.

Harry Schultz' International Harry Schultz Letter was one of 2009's top 10 performers because it ran with the rally. ( See Dec. 28, 2009, column.) And I named it Letter of the Year for 2008 because it undeniably did predict the crash, although by Hulbert Financial Digest count it didn't benefit, for various technical reasons. ( See Dec. 28, 2008, column.)

Despite 2008, IHSL's longer-term record remains strong. Over the past five years, the letter has achieved an 11.39% annualized gain, vs. 1.02% annualized for the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000 Total Stock Market Index. Over the past 10 years, it has achieved a 6.12% annualized gain, vs. 0.22% annualized for the total return Wilshire.

Schultz specialized in grand theorizing, and his current Big Idea, based on pure intuition as far as I can see, is that stocks and the economy will head down, then up, in two 10-years swings, complicated by counter-trend rallies like that of 2009-10.

Could this guy be right? How to hedge? Is it already happening? Eg. a $12,000 car is now worth ~9-10 oz. gold coins which a few years ago would have got you 1/4-1/2 car.

[ramana]

Another D&G book.

The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Debt Crisis of 2010-2012 By Harry Dent
Publisher: Simon & Schuster Export 2009 | 416 Pages | ISBN: 141658899X |

The first and last economic depression that you will experience in your lifetime is just ahead. The year 2009 will be the beginning of the next long-term winter season and the initial end of prosperity in almost every market, ushering in a downturn like most of us have not experienced before. Are you aware that we have seen long-term peaks in our stock market and economy very close to every 40 years due to generational spending trends: as in 1929, 1968, and next around 2009? Are you aware that oil and commodity prices have peaked nearly every 30 years, as in 1920, 1951, 1980 -- and next likely around late 2009 to mid-2010? The three massive bubbles that have been booming for the last few decades -- stocks, real estate, and commodities -- have all reached their peak and are deflating simultaneously.

Bestselling author and renowned economic forecaster Harry S. Dent, Jr., has observed these trends for decades. As he first demonstrated in his bestselling The Great Boom Ahead, he has developed analytical techniques that allow him to predict the impact they will have. The Great Depression Ahead explains "The Perfect Storm" as peak oil prices collide with peaking generational spending trends by 2010, leading to a more severe downtrend for the global economy and individual investors alike.
He predicts the following:
• The economy appears to recover from the subprime crisis and minor recession by mid-2009 -- "the calm before the real storm."
• Stock prices start to crash again between mid- and late 2009 into late 2010, and likely finally bottom around mid-2012 -- between Dow 3,800 and 7,200.
• The economy enters a deeper depression between mid-2010 and early 2011, likely extending off and on into late 2012 or mid-2013.
• Asian markets may bottom by late 2010, along with health care, and be the first great buy opportunities in stocks.
• Gold and precious metals will appear to be a hedge at first, but will ultimately collapse as well after mid- to late 2010.
• A first major stock rally, likely between mid-2012 and mid-2017, will be followed by a final setback around late 2019/early 2020.
• The next broad-based global bull market will be from 2020-2023 into 2035-2036.
Conventional investment wisdom will no longer apply, and investors on every level -- from billion-dollar firms to the individual trader -- must drastically reevaluate their policies in order to survive. But despite the dire news and dark predictions, there are real opportunities to come from the greatest fire sale on financial assets since the early 1930s. Dent outlines the critical issues that will face our government and other major institutions, offering long- and short-term tactics for weathering the storm. He offers recommendations that will allow families, businesses, investors, and individuals to manage their assets correctly and come out on top. With the right knowledge and preparation, you can take advantage of new wealth opportunities rather than get caught in a downward spiral. Your life is about to change for reasons outside of your control. You can't change the direction of the winds, but you can reset your sails!

Could be doom and gloom prophet but never hurt to hear him out.

[chaanakya]

Millions forced to endure long waits for food stamps

By Justin Juozapavicius and Michelle Roberts
Thursday, June 10, 2010

When Amanda Vaca's husband lost his job, the Texas couple took stock of their finances and drew a startling conclusion: They could not afford to feed their four young children.

So Vaca filled out an application for food stamps. Then the wait began. A month passed, and then two. Some weeks, the food simply ran out.

"There was several occasions where I didn't have breakfast to cook them or all there was was noodles," said Vaca, a customer-service representative in Fort Worth who got laid off shortly after her husband. They waited three months for assistance.

The recession has landed millions of hungry families in similar straits, forcing them to endure long waits for help buying basic groceries. A review by the Associated Press found that dozens of food-stamp programs in 39 states left at least a quarter of applicants waiting weeks or months for food aid, some in areas that were not particularly hard hit by the economic downturn.

Federal law requires applications for food stamps to be reviewed within 30 days of being filed, and even faster for the poorest families. Failure to do so can subject agencies to federal sanctions and lawsuits, but individual families are largely at the mercy of their local administrators.

Among the excuses for the delays were overburdened bureaucracies, staff shortages or program rules. But that makes little difference to parents with hungry children.
;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;

A record 40 million people -- one in eight Americans -- now rely on Supplemental Nutrition Assistance, the official name of the modern food-stamp program, which began in 1961.

;;;;

"Never in our lifetimes have these programs been so urgently needed," said Kevin Cancannon, an undersecretary in the Department of Agriculture, which oversees food stamps.

The government uses a complicated formula for determining eligibility, but a family of four must earn less than $2,389 per month. The federal government funds the full cost of benefits and half the administrative costs, a total of $53.77 billion in fiscal 2009. The average monthly payout is $275 per household.

Food-stamp payments work much like a debit card at grocery stores and some farmers markets. The money is good for groceries such as produce, meat, dairy and bread products, along with snack foods and nonalcoholic drinks. The money cannot be used for alcohol or household goods such as toilet paper or pet food.

'''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''

Not every state could provide the data requested by the AP, either because of outdated computer systems or because they do not track the number of applications processed. But 39 states and the District provided overall counts.

;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
Stacy Dean, director of food assistance policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a liberal think tank, said that the overall system has helped people during the downturn but that there are gaps. "There have been many cases where families and seniors have had to wait far too long," she said. "If your economic circumstances are equally dire, whether you live in Oregon or California or Mississippi, you're supposed to have access to benefits in the same amount of time."

[Neshant]

how about starting with the crooks at the top who are counterfeiting money, passing on their losses to taxpayers, stuffing the govt with their ex-employees, and the ratiing agencies where not one CEO has gone to jail for massive fraud.

going after some guy for an unpaid debt of $85 is more important it would appear.

Debtor's Prison
http://www.startribune.com/investigator ... page=1&c=y

[Sanjay M]

How the Financial Crisis Has Undermined U.S. Power

[chetak]

Another D&G book.

The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Debt Crisis of 2010-2012 By Harry Dent
Publisher: Simon & Schuster Export 2009 | 416 Pages | ISBN: 141658899X |




Could be doom and gloom prophet but never hurt to hear him out.

And available for download from the usual shady places.

[Neshant]

Ellen Brown's Web of Debt presentation
5 parts, heres the first

Part 1 of 5 : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QU0XiklHPMc

[svinayak]

Ellen Brown's Web of Debt presentation
5 parts, heres the first

Part 1 of 5 : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QU0XiklHPMc

She talks about 300 years ponzi scheme

http://www.webofdebt.com/articles/modest_proposal.php

The Collapse of a 300 Year Ponzi Scheme

All the king’s men cannot put the private banking system together again, for the simple reason that it is a Ponzi scheme that has reached its mathematical limits. A Ponzi scheme is a form of pyramid scheme in which new investors must continually be sucked in at the bottom to support the investors at the top. In this case, new borrowers must continually be sucked in to support the creditors at the top. The Wall Street Ponzi scheme is built on “fractional reserve” lending, which allows banks to create “credit” (or “debt”) with accounting entries. Banks are now allowed to lend from 10 to 30 times their “reserves,” essentially counterfeiting the money they lend. Over 97 percent of the U.S. money supply (M3) has been created by banks in this way.5 The problem is that banks create only the principal and not the interest necessary to pay back their loans. Since bank lending is essentially the only source of new money in the system, someone somewhere must continually be taking out new loans just to create enough “money” (or “credit”) to service the old loans composing the money supply. This spiraling interest problem and the need to find new debtors has gone on for over 300 years -- ever since the founding of the Bank of England in 1694 – until the whole world has now become mired in debt to the bankers’ private money monopoly. As British financial analyst Chris Cook observes:

“Exponential economic growth required by the mathematics of compound interest on a money supply based on money as debt must always run up eventually against the finite nature of Earth’s resources.”6

The parasite has finally run out of its food source. But the crisis is not in the economy itself, which is fundamentally sound – or would be with a proper credit system to oil the wheels of production. The crisis is in the banking system, which can no longer cover up the shell game it has played for three centuries with other people’s money. Fortunately, we don’t need the credit of private banks. A sovereign government can create its own.

[Neshant]

Another day another stimulus.

----------

Obama steps up push for added economic stimulus

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama and his aides are stepping up a push for further government spending to boost the economy as signs grow of the recovery's fragility.

The White House is calling for Congress to urgently pass measures to extend jobless benefits, aid cash-strapped states and provide targeted tax breaks to encourage research and development by businesses.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/1006 ... ma_economy

[mnag]

I have read it. Although I dont believe some of the forecasts, the reasoning based on baby boomer behaviour and other economic cycles make it a good reading.

Looks like he is not a perma bear as his previous book was "The Next Great Bubble Boom: How to Profit from the Greatest Boom in History, 2005-2009 " Although it forecast a huge boom from 2005-2009 and real estate peak in 2008-2009, but he was off on that. However in that book he did mention of bust after 2009 where he was slightly off in timing. Incidentaly, the foreword for that book had a review which said "Nobody called the nineties boom and bubble like Harry Dent, and now he is calling for another unexpected bull market. All investors should take notice".

Another D&G book.

The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Debt Crisis of 2010-2012 By Harry Dent
Publisher: Simon & Schuster Export 2009 | 416 Pages | ISBN: 141658899X |

The first and last economic depression that you will experience in your lifetime is just ahead. The year 2009 will be the beginning of the next long-term winter season and the initial end of prosperity in almost every market, ushering in a downturn like most of us have not experienced before. Are you aware that we have seen long-term peaks in our stock market and economy very close to every 40 years due to generational spending trends: as in 1929, 1968, and next around 2009? Are you aware that oil and commodity prices have peaked nearly every 30 years, as in 1920, 1951, 1980 -- and next likely around late 2009 to mid-2010? The three massive bubbles that have been booming for the last few decades -- stocks, real estate, and commodities -- have all reached their peak and are deflating simultaneously.

Bestselling author and renowned economic forecaster Harry S. Dent, Jr., has observed these trends for decades. As he first demonstrated in his bestselling The Great Boom Ahead, he has developed analytical techniques that allow him to predict the impact they will have. The Great Depression Ahead explains "The Perfect Storm" as peak oil prices collide with peaking generational spending trends by 2010, leading to a more severe downtrend for the global economy and individual investors alike.
He predicts the following:
• The economy appears to recover from the subprime crisis and minor recession by mid-2009 -- "the calm before the real storm."
• Stock prices start to crash again between mid- and late 2009 into late 2010, and likely finally bottom around mid-2012 -- between Dow 3,800 and 7,200.
• The economy enters a deeper depression between mid-2010 and early 2011, likely extending off and on into late 2012 or mid-2013.
• Asian markets may bottom by late 2010, along with health care, and be the first great buy opportunities in stocks.
• Gold and precious metals will appear to be a hedge at first, but will ultimately collapse as well after mid- to late 2010.
• A first major stock rally, likely between mid-2012 and mid-2017, will be followed by a final setback around late 2019/early 2020.
• The next broad-based global bull market will be from 2020-2023 into 2035-2036.
Conventional investment wisdom will no longer apply, and investors on every level -- from billion-dollar firms to the individual trader -- must drastically reevaluate their policies in order to survive. But despite the dire news and dark predictions, there are real opportunities to come from the greatest fire sale on financial assets since the early 1930s. Dent outlines the critical issues that will face our government and other major institutions, offering long- and short-term tactics for weathering the storm. He offers recommendations that will allow families, businesses, investors, and individuals to manage their assets correctly and come out on top. With the right knowledge and preparation, you can take advantage of new wealth opportunities rather than get caught in a downward spiral. Your life is about to change for reasons outside of your control. You can't change the direction of the winds, but you can reset your sails!

Could be doom and gloom prophet but never hurt to hear him out.

[Neshant]

I've kept tabs him for a little while (Harry Dent). His record of prediction is spotty.

As with all predictions, you take it with a grain of salt.

I don't doubt his demographic-spending implosion thesis however. Not sure about the rest of the stuff.

[Neshant]

I see it as becoming a competing currency with the dollar to keep things honest and cut down on scamming by the middle man industry.
----

The Case for a Genuine Gold Dollar

http://mises.org/rothbard/genuine.asp

[Neshant]

More idiotic ideas from keynesian economists.

---------
Currency Collapse May Stimulate Economic Expansion, BIS Says

June 14 (Bloomberg) -- Currency collapses tend to spur a resumption of economic growth rather than fueling a decline in gross domestic product, according to the Bank for International Settlements. (just like it did for zimbabwe?)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... orjs&pos=5

[abhischekcc]

^Maybe they are setting the stage for sovereign default by the western countries - USD just got downgraded to junk status officially