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JE Menon wrote:>>Still, China is needed to balance western powers.
Perhaps, but only to the extent China needs India to balance other world powers, including Western.
There is a view in China is that MMS and Co want to fall in line with a western-led world order. In that scenario they cannot be sure to what extent GoI can be relied on to take an Asia-centric view.
>>If we assume that all concerned countries are being led by independent governments, then the best strategy for China would be to demonstrate its sincerity by helping clean up the messes it has caused in Pak and N. Korea.
I don't disagree, but some thoughts nevertheless. Why should China demonstrate its sincerity? And to whom?
China should demonstrate its sincerity to India, Japan and South Korea, so that these countries do not feel the need to involve western powers in their backyards.
Dutch police are to use "decoy Jews", by dressing law enforcers in Jewish religious dress such as skullcaps, in an effort to catch anti-Semitic attackers.
--
"Sorry honey, I'll be home late tonight - I got called for Jewry Duty"
RamaY wrote:
PRC have three things to prove before it can Indian hearts
1. Return India's land and settle borders
2. Reestablish Dharma in Tibet
3. Stop playing in India's neighborhood
This requires maturity in PRC leadership.
PRC should support Indian claims on Kashmir, and basically follow Indian guidance as regards their Pakistan policy. Similarly, PRC should defer to Japan and South Korea on N. Korea related issues. Then China, India, Japan, South Korea together with Russia, Brazil and maybe Turkey and South Africa, could shape the 21st century.
But one question is whether Indian leadership can think in such terms - they may want to follow western elites.
biswas wrote:The above seems a lot like Paki wet dreams, you expect a country with an economy 3 times our size to follow our guidance on their foreign policy?
There is a fairly good understanding, amongst the Chinese leadership, about the long-term goals of western elites. They probably realize the need to have good relations with India, Japan and South Korea.
IMHO, there is a bigger question mark as regards intentions of Indian leadership, which may be compromised in various ways vis-a-vis western elites. It is not clear if PRC will be willing to give up supporting Paks and North Koreans. But they might be willing to consider it depending upon intentions of Indian and Japanese leadership.
Last edited by Pranav on 23 Jun 2010 14:59, edited 2 times in total.
biswas wrote:The above seems a lot like Paki wet dreams, you expect a country with an economy 3 times our size to follow our guidance on their foreign policy?
Well size doesn't matter. A country 1/16 th of our size(England) ruled many nations for about 100 years.
biswas wrote:The above seems a lot like Paki wet dreams, you expect a country with an economy 3 times our size to follow our guidance on their foreign policy?
Well size doesn't matter. A country 1/16 th of our size(England) ruled many nations for about 100 years.
Sorry Satyam Engaland is about 131,100 Sq Km( UK is 244,000kM), about the the size of Tamil Nadu 131,058 Sqkm ( 4% of India's area), not 1/6 but 1/25 of present day India, including pakistan and Bangladesh that would make it 130/4350 around 1/33 the size
prad wrote:
this is a whole new level of funny!!! "reestablishing dharma" in Tibet would lead to a domino effect in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia. China will lose all of its border lands (buffer zones). why would China want to do this?
i think there is too much of wishful thinking on BRF w.r.t China. people here are asking China to give up stuff that it holds to be of utmost geopolitical importance.
Not necessarily.
Think about it. If the head of the family stops being arrogant and harsh, the family will not demand split/separation.
One has to define "Geopolitical Importance" from eastern-philosophy point of view. I disagree that such a world view would have to be a weakening force, even militarily against the western-anglo-christian geopolitical worldview.
It does appear so at the outset, but civilizations live and progress over long periods of time.
That is why I said, PRC need to think in civilizational terms instead of nation-state terms when working on its Geopolitical Interests. Then things get clear for PRC and others as well.
RamaY wrote:It does appear so at the outset, but civilizations live and progress over long periods of time.
So China holds on to Tibet for a few more centuries, then in a thousand years nobody would be talking about an independent Tibet. So maybe Chinese are thinking in terms of civilization
prad wrote:even giving up a single buffer zone is still a loss for China. China wants these 3 borderlands as a buffer to protect its Eastern Heartland. this is where all the agriculture, population, and economy is. these buffer zones are protection b/c of their elevated rugged terrain which makes it impossible to build supply lines by an enemy force. and as such, these borderlands are China's gateway into Central Asia, India, and Siberia (all of which are important economic zones). these buffer zones make it possible for China to have direct land routes into significant economic and geopolitical areas. losing one will isolate China from one of these areas.
this whole 'eastern philosophy' where amazingly China will have to give up the most and conveniently India will have to gain the most is something that will be unacceptable to China. it's wishful thinking.
It may not be that difficult for the Dalai Lama to reach some kind of modus vivendi with China, if China itself becomes more Buddhist-Confucian. The Dalai Lama himself had said a few days back that this is in fact happening.
But geopolitically speaking, Chinese policy on N Korea and Pak is more important than Tibet. Because that will determine reactions of Japan, South Korea and India, and thereby influence western involvement in Asia.
Last edited by Pranav on 23 Jun 2010 19:27, edited 2 times in total.
RamaY wrote:
Many empires thought so and we know what happened to such dreams!
Spirit of the people is above nation state. A important culture and deep influence in the world cannot be stamped out. If PRC had nurtured the culture and religion then there could be some way
RamaY wrote:It does appear so at the outset, but civilizations live and progress over long periods of time.
That is why I said, PRC need to think in civilizational terms instead of nation-state terms when working on its Geopolitical Interests. Then things get clear for PRC and others as well.
This is what my undeveloped-brain thinks
The CPC cannot do that. It cannot acknowledge that what it replaced was civilizationally higher than what it has become. Therefore the Chinese authorities are always in a curious ideological bind - "patriotic" pride also brings in reminders of what "was", and how that was "destroyed" and what "is" now.
Why Russia is blocking Belorussian Gas ? Sounds strange. To risk loosing friend for peanuts. That is harakiri. But Ruskie are not dumb. It may be a game plan to put pressure on Europe or to change regime in Minsk.
prad wrote: i would have imagined that the Russians were keeping the excess labor as a buffer when they will need all the extra labor they can get in the 2020's. but if they form a major economic relationship with the Germans, then their labor reserve will dry up too soon.
the next 10 years will be like a boom time for Russia. but a generation after 2020 will be disaster. having excess labor for that time frame would be ideal for Russia. but then again, Russia also needs to modernize before that time frame. Russians are in a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation.
EU output will be lower compared to Asia and the rest of the world from now on and after 2020. With a higher mean age EU countries need to cooperate more and create a stable system including Russia. That is the main goal of Germany from the moves it is making. Stability is the key even if the GDP is lower.
This is a unique time in history.
Acharya wrote:Spirit of the people is above nation state. A important culture and deep influence in the world cannot be stamped out. If PRC had nurtured the culture and religion then there could be some way
The highlighted words is a window into the World of geopolitics and humans. A plaque must be made and gifted to all the World leaders. Corporations already know this.
In India, the thoughts behinds those words manifested as dharma. People had high emotions for their clan, tribe, varna, jati, bhoomi than a particular King or Kingdom; in addition dharma guided their pride and sense of belonging to the different layers of existence. The pride of the people was multi-layered that naturally fit into human nature. With the establishment of nation states, now the humans are expected to take pride at the national level only. Citizenship is an artificial ornament cast upon us.
RamaY wrote:It does appear so at the outset, but civilizations live and progress over long periods of time.
So China holds on to Tibet for a few more centuries, then in a thousand years nobody would be talking about an independent Tibet. So maybe Chinese are thinking in terms of civilization
Chinese hold on Tibet has to do with economics and power.
The civilizational hold, if any, flowed in the other direction historically.
Equilibrium of civilizations are as clearly marked as watersheds and water flows flow....
China's ability to hold Tibet and other areas will be proportional to its economic might, as if we dig deeper it may be pretty expensive to keep that nation-state running.
In an interview with one of the handful of serious newspapers that every informed person should read, Brazil’s Foreign Minister Celso Amorim told the (paywall-protected) Financial Times that Brazil would no longer seek a lead role in the diplomatic dispute between Iran and the United States. “We got our fingers burned,” Amorim told the FT. The Daily News, an English-language Turkish newspaper published by the Hurriyet group, tried to cast doubt on the story, saying that there were ‘conflicting’ reports about the Brazilian position. As the smoke cleared this morning, however, both the AP and Reuters confirmed the FT account.
Brazil’s defection from the ‘axis of fixers‘ leaves Turkey in an uncomfortable place. Limited Israeli concessions on the Gaza blockade have won praise from both the US and Tony Blair without bringing the blockade, including the naval blockade, to an end. The Security Council sanctions against Iran sailed through despite Turkish opposition and, led by the US Treasury Department and the Congress, it is likely that in both the US and the EU new, tougher sanctions will build on what the Security Council laid down.
ANKARA, Turkey – Turkey's president sounded an optimistic note Wednesday about his country's prospects of joining the European Union despite its recent turn toward the East.The man in charge of expanding the European Union gave a mixed response, praising Turkey's progress in granting more cultural rights to the Kurdish minority and curbing the influence of the military on politics but saying the reunification of Cyprus needs urgent attention. Cyprus was divided into Turkish and Greek sectors after Turkish troops invaded it in the wake of a coup seeking to unite the island with Greece in 1974. The Greek-speaking half of the Mediterranean island entered the EU in 2004.
The largest Muslim seminary in India, Darul Uloom of Deoband, has issued a fatwa against working Muslim women, saying working with men is not Islamic.
The fatwa says it is unlawful for Muslim women to do any job in government or private institutions that entails men and women working together and women having to talk to men without the veil.
The Deoband clerics say it is clearly mentioned in the Shariat that women should wear the veil in office and should not mix with male colleagues.
I am not sure what impact such fatwas have, but this one seems to be a doozy.
Acharya wrote:Spirit of the people is above nation state. A important culture and deep influence in the world cannot be stamped out. If PRC had nurtured the culture and religion then there could be some way
The highlighted words is a window into the World of geopolitics and humans. A plaque must be made and gifted to all the World leaders. Corporations already know this.
In India, the thoughts behinds those words manifested as dharma. People had high emotions for their clan, tribe, varna, jati, bhoomi than a particular King or Kingdom; in addition dharma guided their pride and sense of belonging to the different layers of existence. The pride of the people was multi-layered that naturally fit into human nature. With the establishment of nation states, now the humans are expected to take pride at the national level only. Citizenship is an artificial ornament cast upon us.
SwamyG, Thanks for recognizing the wisdom of Acharya's words. Its not often his message is recognised due to the fog of non Indian interest thinking.
Meanwhile, BBC World service has a two part segment on Tiger vs Dragon, the story of rise of India and China :
China's ability to hold Tibet and other areas will be proportional to its economic might, as if we dig deeper it may be pretty expensive to keep that nation-state running.
I would not deny that. Did the Europeans not destroy, or play a big part in destroying, the native civilizations of the Americas? South East Asia had Indic influences for a long time; but the steady Islamisation and Westernization will leave its mark. Heck, for that matter, isn't globalization/westernization leaving its mark in India itself?
The more China controls Tibet, the tougher it will be to pry out Tibet and tougher to reprieve the civilization of Tibet.
there is no denying that. Tibetan civilization will absorb Hun influence; but it will remain Tibetan nevertheless. This like something Hinduism did during/after 1000 years of colonization and transformation.
But when the critical mass is acihieved things will unravel. One such example is Jewish return to Jerusalem. That's what makes them civilizations; beyond societies and nation-states.
Native Americans, Africans, lamborghinies, persians, Arabs .... Everyone will return back to their Roots the moment these artificial hackles weaken. That is what we call Shivam in Hindu misticism; it will initiate the dissolution process the moment Maya/avidya weakens...
Jews returned to Israel, because the Europeans helped them. One set of bigots killed and pushed them out, another set of bigots just created a path for them to move over there, squishing another set of people in the process. Happily that analogy will not hold good for Tibet.
Native Americans returning to the roots you say? How many of N.A are still left, huh? And the others returning to their roots? Unless the veils of the Big 3 religions are removed, there is no returning back to any roots for anybody. Seriously RamaY garu you should not be smoking weed on a Thursday - it is too early in the week
BTW Ramana garu, could not stand the BBC Radio piece for more than 2-4 mins. I just had to turn it off.
Second, Iran has formed a new "northern alliance" which now includes, Syria, Hezbollah and Turkey. Turkey, once a strong NATO ally, is now firmly allied with Iran against the U.S. Turkey, which supported Iran in the UN, would certainly oppose military action against Iran and prevent its NATO air bases from being used against Iran. Iran may be calculating that by attacking Iran, both the U.S. and Israel risk losing Turkey as a NATO ally altogether. Third, several weeks ago a "terror summit" was held in Damascus among the leadership of Hezbollah, Syria and Iran which have formed a de facto military alliance. Reports out of Syria after the summit indicate that Hezbollah is primed to provoke a preemptive crisis with Israel to open a "northern front" against Israel should Iran be convinced Israel is preparing to attack it. The pieces are in place: Iran has shipped to Syria SCUD and M-600 ground-to-ground missiles capable of reaching every major Israeli population center and talk of war is in the air. Media reports indicate that Hezbollah has now stashed away 40,000 missiles as compared to the 15,000 missiles it had in its arsenal at the beginning of the 2006 war with Israel.
Haha! Eastern and Western Europe consolidate! Britain is left out in the cold, in a Japan-esque way, battening down the economic hatches! US similarly left watching from the other side of the ocean!
(I am off today and WFH tomorrow, so am under influence)