kit wrote:Precisely the reason why India must have thermonuclear weapons., a bit off the topic, but China will have sooo much to lose when a couple of Indian Hydrogen bombs land on their heads than the way bit smaller fission warheads at present.A two front war ., baby you got it.The strategic scenario changes when India fields fusion weapons even in the tens of missiles.
China wont prefer to attack India but let their dirty work done by PK while they cheer at the sidelines.Just because they could very well lose their economic infrastructure and lose their superpower status will prevent them from involving directly against India.
Kit this is what I had posted in Deterrence thread some time back:
Above I have just tried to get an idea of How many missiles/warheads would be needed to send the lizard back economically by 100 years. In this my idea was to hit industrial cities/refineries/ports.
As you can see that A SINGLE YELLOW STAR IS EQUIVALENT OF 3 WARHEADS OF 40KT EACH (Salted of course 2 warheads with Gold isotops and one warhead with cobalt 60). So each STAR means 1 missile with 3MIRVs.
Now on the map ONE DARK GREEN DOT means one type of industry if you see many bunched together that means that many types of industries. The list of type of industries you can see on the top of the map.
So as I counted in end it came to 35 STARS WHICH EQUALS TO 105WARHEADS AND 35MISSILES(3MIRVD ON EACH MISSILE OF COURSE).
Since somebody had mentioned that Army is factoring in failure rate of 50% warheads. If we add to that failure of missiles and ABM too then I have to increase the number 3 times.
This way the number that comes is 315 warheads + 105(3 warhead MIRVd) Missiles to ensure 80-90% destruction economywise.
I have here discounted the army targets totally 'cause I don't know where and how many of them are there. Secondly the idea was to hit economic + population targets. This way a partly dying chipanda could have also a window to hit other enemy targets of its own, like Japan US and RU etc. thus inviting their retaliation+preventive strikes too.
Since we consider testing too expensive because of sanctions, the least can be done is to make missile launch sites buried deep in mountains far away from the population centers. With ABMs on top of mountains to protect them from pre emptive strikes. Also this way the enemy has to use SUBSTANTIAL PART OF ITS ARSENAL ON TRYING TO TAKE OUT THESE SITES RESULTING IN LESS WARHEADS FOR POPULATION CENTERS OF OUR COUNTRY.
Then the other part is ON trains, mobile launchers + Arihants.
For now I think China wouldn't want even 10% of this to happen for getting Arunachal Pradesh, but few years from now some unforeseen situation may change it some water issue......... something.
So 315 warheads for Chipanda +105 Agnis.
AS I SEE NOW, EVEN 15 OF THESE WARHEADS OF 40 KTS TAKE OUT ALL THEIR 10 REFINERIES AND SURROUNDING INDUSTRIAL AREA + 3 GORGES DAM AND TIBET CHINA RAIL LINK AND YOU HAVE CHINA 100 YEARS BACK!