When USA leaves Afghanistan, either they have to show some change in comparison to the situation in 2001 or they would be considered defeated.
If USA could show that a stable political dispensation has taken root in Afghanistan, which is different than that of the Taliban, which was against providing safe sanctuary to Al Qaeda and other American enemies, than America could safely have gone home and cried mission accomplished. Democracy was simply an additional criteria added on, partly to help in finding the political dispensation and partly as a PR gag.
Now if democracy breaks down, it is a setback compared to the high ambitions. But USA can hark back to the original goals and change the focus. But now it seems that it will all return to 2001 status.
So the 1900 coalition lives would have been for nothing. USA would neither have finished off Al Qaeda, a big milestone of which would have been arresting or killing Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri. Nor would America have secured the mineral wealth of Central Asia, nor would have America really gained a durable beachhead in the middle of the most important continent on the planet.
So none of American goals, either stated or assumed would have met.
On top of it, USA cannot even show any durable change of political dispensation in Afghanistan, a secondary goal, which makes the sole superpower lose face. That is probably America's biggest worry, because a superpower which loses face, loses its status as superpower. Much of the influence a superpower exerts in the world, is exerted simply by the general consensus that it is a superpower, without offering either carrots or showing sticks. That would now fade away. In the future, everything USA wants done, USA would have to spend valuable capital, either in treasure or in credible threats.
USA has already taken out Saddam Hussein from power, a major bulwark against Shi'ite Iran and have almost given Iraq to Iran on a platter. But inspite of that, Iran does not have full dominance over Iraq.
So in principle, USA would be willing to sacrifice some of its strategic interests if it allows USA to preserve its status as superpower, which gets done, what it claims it will do.
USA could be persuaded to opt for a dispensation, which though at first glance would be contrary to its strategic interests in Central Asia, i.e. a country, which would be willing to have a close relationship with both Moscow and Tehran, it would nevertheless be a the quickest way to get out with a head held high, and the proclaimed enemies of USA would not be allowed a total victory.
If USA leaves Afghanistan with Taliban running over the Afghan Govt., then it would certainly be a victory for anti-American Islam. If the Taliban gets to have only part of Afghanistan as its domain, lets say Pushtunistan, and it is forced to respect the borders with a Northern Alliance dominion in the North of Afghanistan, say under the threat of retaliation against now public Taliban targets, then America can call it a victory, because it would have forced the enemies of America to respect something, in this case a border between North Afghanistan and Pushtunistan.
So a victory of USA can be proclaimed only if USA forces the forces fighting USA to respect something.
I believe that Afghanistan can be formed into an ethnic confederation with 'provisions for the protection of ethnic minorities' with the Pushtun areas being left to be taken over by the Taliban, for which Pakistan vouches.
In fact a Northern Afghanistan (non-Pushtun) and a Taliban-occupied Afghanistan would be an ideal situation for USA, because it could really have a beachhead in the very heart of Asia, which is dependent on it for security from a dangerous Taliban in the South as well as for funds to keep the country viable.
It would have the option of secure supply routes from either
- Baluchistan along Iran's border but on the Pakistani side and West Afghanistan
- From the North through Turkmenistan
- From a corridor to the East of Pakistan, say through Northern Areas
- From India, as and when PoK become part of India
- Over Russia and CARs, if USA develops some sort of understanding with Russia
The supply routes even now are far from secure, with the Taliban looting the trucks every now and then.
The fallacy USA is making in its Afghanistan strategy is that it thinks it needs to occupy and secure land in Southern Afghanistan and keep Taliban out. That makes it easy for Taliban who do not want to occupy land but simply to de-facto rule using fear of retribution. USA can turn the tables and force the Taliban to set up administration in Pushtun areas of Afghanistan, so that USA has the option of attacking as and when they choose.
thus helping Paki women suffer more and let Pakistan sink deeper. On the other hand women may like the ad. Either way its an idea to set up confusion and doubt and create a bigger mess out of Pakbrains.