Managing Pakistan's failure

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Frederic
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by Frederic »

Karna_A wrote:
brihaspati wrote: I still feel an average Indian is better of creating the next Infosys or Wipro then trying to shift through the maze of historical misinformations and trying to decide who did what to whom and when. That is the task of strategic and political community and other subsidiary think tanks like BRF.
Karna, hi!

A hypothetical scenario.

I have a great idea for a SW product, say a computer wargame set in the Indic milieu.

I want to go and start my company in Malappuram district in Kerala and say I want to take my wife and daughters and whole family with me. Say I want my company to be the next Infy of Kerala.

Say I am an average Abdul and say that the info about the Khilafat festivities and the Moppla "reactions" to it were hidden from me by the esteemed gubermint. Only the leaders and think tanks are allowed to even examine the historical evidence about the Mopla stuff and for the rest of the hoi polloi like me it is considered far too dangerous and thus it is suppressed.

You, as an esteemed member of the BRF and one who has access to the "historical incidents", would you advise me (a non-muslim) to settle in Malappuram district with my womenfolk and start my business?

If not, why?

Would my family's future safety be somewhat served better if I already have access to what happened in Malappuram during the Khilafat festvities?

Best Regards
Fred
svinayak
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by svinayak »

RajeshA wrote: This is fascinating to study. And these changes in text books are done openly with the assumption as if rest of the Indians are stupid and do not understand the truth and the history.
Acharya garu,
This seems to be a worthy project! :wink:
Perhaps one can write a book on it!

I believe many people would be interested to know, what kinds of manipulations have been carried out, what has been left out, what has been added, what has been modified, on whose insistence, under what pressures and to what possible purpose. I would certainly tell us about the world-view of the various governments and their appointed educationists.
You need to read this book. Others have already started the project.
https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http ... _eBook.pdf
Check the chapter - Education.
brihaspati
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by brihaspati »

Karna_A wrote
I still feel an average Indian is better of creating the next Infosys or Wipro then trying to shift through the maze of historical misinformations and trying to decide who did what to whom and when. That is the task of strategic and political community and other subsidiary think tanks like BRF.
Historical atrocity does not fall into the category of sensitive issue for national defense, to be blanketly suppressed by a gov. Contested facts and memory can be only verified or put on solid grounds by more and more people researching, investigating, querying on those "facts" and debating each other without fear and restriction. The more such things are hidden and protected from prying eyes, the greater is the opportunity to selectively suppress or highlight "facts" by interested leaders and thinkers. History should be in the domain of public debate, especially because it is claimed to be after all a matter of "interpretation" - for "stones do not speak" [Prof. Ms. Romilla Thapar]. if it is indeed a matter of interpretation, it should be open to public interpretation, for more interpretations are proposed, greater is the choice and opportunity to try out alternate explanations and see which one fits the best.

Awareness of history is a crucial factor in nation-building, as well as keeping historical knowledge and experience in mind to guard against situations that can arise again in a repeat of what had happened in the past. By pushing people out of it, we weaken the prospects of survival of the nation.

One of the crucial first questions that comes out of history, relevant for this thread would have been : in Islamism dominated rashtras, does apparent failure of a regime equate to failure of that Islamic nation if the population remains or the automatic destruction of the social mechanisms that can regenerate a similar Islamist regime again in the future? Moreover how does it pan out for India and Pak?

On first glance only India may seem to be the exception to this, in the sense that all other regions where once an Islamic regime established itself and managed to convert most of the inhabitants - regimes fell but if the society survived as Muslim then it regenerated another Islamic regime and the rashtra.

However, if we look at pre-Partition India, we can immediately see that even here India is not exception. For the fall of the various Islamic regimes of regional nawabs and the Mughal imperium did not mean a destruction of the Muslim society in the way it happened in Spain, or Bulgaria, or Russia under the Golden Horde and the Tatar Khanate of Astrakhan, etc. Therefore, India keeps to the general historical pattern that an Islamist regime was reinvented and reinstated in significant parts of India.

While we are discussing the "failure of Pak", it may be worthwhile to explore this equation of "failure of a regime" == "failure of the state", if the Islamist society itself survives as Islamist. In fact the failure of the current arrangement can actually push for a different form, like a Taleb version, but not necessarily a "failure" as a "state". Awareness of history should at least make us ponder this question, for it can point out where it can go all wrong.
RamaY
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by RamaY »

Acharya-garu,

Is there anyway you can email that PDF so I can print and read? r a m a y dot b r f at googlebhai/

TIA
svinayak
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by svinayak »

RamaY wrote:Acharya-garu,

Is there anyway you can email that PDF so I can print and read? r a m a y dot b r f at googlebhai/

TIA
It is downloadable or you get the right plug in Chrome and save it in google docs
Karna_A
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by Karna_A »

Frederic wrote:
A hypothetical scenario.

I have a great idea for a SW product, say a computer wargame set in the Indic milieu.

You, as an esteemed member of the BRF and one who has access to the "historical incidents", would you advise me (a non-muslim) to settle in Malappuram district with my womenfolk and start my business?

If not, why?
Hypothetically, what would your advice be to any Indic Keralite be about getting a job in Gulf and taking his womenfolk there?
With "historical incidents" isn't this equivalent as going into Lion's den.

My advice to you would be to start a company in dubai and hire as many indics as you can and make the company indispensable to Dubai's economy while trying to influence Dubai's policy into granting citizenship to Indics so Indics are majority there.
RajeshA
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by RajeshA »

Acharya wrote:You need to read this book. Others have already started the project.
https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http ... _eBook.pdf
Check the chapter - Education.
Acharya garu,
I had a first look at it. Will read it further.

Thank you for the recommendation.
Karna_A
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by Karna_A »

brihaspati wrote:[
Historical atrocity does not fall into the category of sensitive issue for national defense, to be blanketly suppressed by a gov. Contested facts and memory can be only verified or put on solid grounds by more and more people researching, investigating, querying on those "facts" and debating each other without fear and restriction. The more such things are hidden and protected from prying eyes, the greater is the opportunity to selectively suppress or highlight "facts" by interested leaders and thinkers. History should be in the domain of public debate, especially because it is claimed to be after all a matter of "interpretation" - for "stones do not speak" [Prof. Ms. Romilla Thapar]. if it is indeed a matter of interpretation, it should be open to public interpretation, for more interpretations are proposed, greater is the choice and opportunity to try out alternate explanations and see which one fits the best.
I would rather have every Indian employed than every Indian "Aware".
I would rather have India as a superpower economically than a superpower in historical knowledge and it almost seems like an either/or situation in Indian context.

India was in some ways maximum "Aware" in 1947. The brutal partition was fresh in every one's mind, the patriotism was at its highest, rampant corruption had not yet started, politics was civil and possibilities were infinite. Still a person like Nehru was voted again and again into power inspite of his willingness to have military disbanded, license raj expanded, RSS banned and Somnath panned.

The "Aware" nation was almost bankrupt by 1990.
PVNR was the first time that a leader with a new vision came and that vision was Indians can do economic miracles if given a chance. That results of that vision is for all to see.
Today no one anywhere is talking about managing India's failure, but about its coming ascendency is due to this vision.

Politics is dirty in India and elsewhere. It is the duty of citizens to direct the politicians towards development only as that's the least divisive and maximum productive for everyone. Given any leeway, the politicians would take the slightest pretext to divide and rot be it language issue, caste issue, religion issue, water issue or no issue issue.

Mind you, this does not diminish the importance of issue itself, but of maturity of a society to tackle it.
The failure of TSP is mainly due to taking wrong issues at the wrong time by wrong people which should not be repeated for India.
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by shiv »

jaibhim wrote: The more facts that are presented to us will enable us to build models that would try to debate upon future trends

There is an added complexity of discussing Indian problems while talking of Pakistan. And that problem is the fact that Pakistani leaders have consistently used India's frighteningly poor development statistics to hide their statitisics which are now worse - but the numbers are smaller. This has had a significant effect on the mental atttitudes of Indians and others and a general attitude has been to say that "Pakistan is moderate and well developed, India is poor and screwed up"

It has taken years of effort on BR to insist that Indian rubbish be discussed separately from Pakistan's rubbish so that the latter is not hidden by the magnitude of the former.
I would suggest taking your views to the future of the Idian subcontinent thread on this forum.
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by Pranav »

Karna_A wrote: I would rather have every Indian employed than every Indian "Aware".
...
India was in some ways maximum "Aware" in 1947. The brutal partition was fresh in every one's mind, the patriotism was at its highest, rampant corruption had not yet started, politics was civil and possibilities were infinite. Still a person like Nehru was voted again and again into power inspite of his willingness to have military disbanded, license raj expanded, RSS banned and Somnath panned.
It is because India was in a state of mental confusion that someone like Nehru could keep getting re-elected. There was a lot of patriotism, but it was totally blind. This confusion of the population eventually results in genocide and slavery. Already, communities like the Kashmiri Pandits have paid the price. Regrettably, we are still in a state of confusion. Obviously there are actors that have vested interests in maintaining and increasing the confusion.
brihaspati
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by brihaspati »

Karna_A wrote
I would rather have every Indian employed than every Indian "Aware".
I would rather have India as a superpower economically than a superpower in historical knowledge and it almost seems like an either/or situation in Indian context.
The two attributes need not be mutually exclusive. Becoming aware does not necessarily detract from the taske of becoming aware. In fact some degree of awareness would be necessary to guarantee continued growth as it definitely helps to know what types of things "others" have tried before and can try again to derail that growth.
India was in some ways maximum "Aware" in 1947. The brutal partition was fresh in every one's mind, the patriotism was at its highest, rampant corruption had not yet started, politics was civil and possibilities were infinite. Still a person like Nehru was voted again and again into power inspite of his willingness to have military disbanded, license raj expanded, RSS banned and Somnath panned.
No that was not "awareness" - that was shock and numbness, prepared to that end very very carefully by a programme of exactly the type of whitewashing of Islamism as perpetrated by custodians of Indian thought like MKG and JLN. However, the victims were practically destroyed - turned into refugees dependent on whatever crumbs the magnanimous "centre" deigned to scatter [again depending on the "origin" of the refugees] - so the most potent population for "awareness" was distracted to no end. By that time the very same "deconstructing India" programme had also divided up rest of Indian society so the rest of India did not feel the pain, shame and trauma of Punjabis and Bengalis. It was a successful programme of regionalism, personality cult, and multiple fractures - all based on a careful rewriting of history. This was continued in the same brainwashing mode with now full rashtryia machinery backing post 1947 - whose effects you quote for 1990's.
The "Aware" nation was almost bankrupt by 1990.
PVNR was the first time that a leader with a new vision came and that vision was Indians can do economic miracles if given a chance. That results of that vision is for all to see.
Today no one anywhere is talking about managing India's failure, but about its coming ascendency is due to this vision.
PVNR wrote a book. Have you read it? It gives out from time to time his "thoughts" even under the restrictions of official conformity. Moreover, by the time PVNR gets a chance to play, its a generation already from 1947. The machinery of rashtryia thought-control could not control entirely a generation that had seen 1947's immediate effects as kids and confirmed by the riots and treatment of Hindus in East Pakistan in the late 60's and early 70's were now a significant proportion of the population - with many forced out of the land from discriminatory practices again guided by the historical rewriting.
Politics is dirty in India and elsewhere. It is the duty of citizens to direct the politicians towards development only as that's the least divisive and maximum productive for everyone. Given any leeway, the politicians would take the slightest pretext to divide and rot be it language issue, caste issue, religion issue, water issue or no issue issue.

Mind you, this does not diminish the importance of issue itself, but of maturity of a society to tackle it.
The failure of TSP is mainly due to taking wrong issues at the wrong time by wrong people which should not be repeated for India.
Failure of TSP is not just because of looking at history or having consciousness of atrocity. The "failure" is a complicated terminology and on certain contexts, TSP is not going to fail, while on other criteria, TSP will appear to be a failure. In fact both some Pakis and most of us here will perhaps agree that "Pak" appears to be failing : but the points on which the two groups think Pak is failing could be widely divergent. While for many of the common Paki doing begaar on some politicians private estate while his wife and sister attends to the pleasure of the courtiers and officials of that politician landlord, nothing is failing because he still can see no foreseeable change in that begaar and in the pleasures that his family women will have to continue to provide.

In fact with the exception of India, no modern government anywhere flaunts and self-flagellates itself on the supposed trauma its majority apparently inflicted on parts of itself. Pakis are not angry because their gov tells them of atrocities committed by Hindus on them - quite the contrary - they flaunt how Paki ancestors committed trauma on Hindus, and this was a sign of power and legitimacy. Their anger stemps from what they see as Hindu deviousness in using the Brits to overturn subjugation at teh hands of the muslim. This is their "trauma".
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by brihaspati »

One thing that can complicate things is the involvement of China in Pak.
http://www.cfr.org/publication/22603/in ... _ties.html
T
he two sides do share some fundamental interests in ensuring the stability of Pakistan, preventing the rise of militancy, avoiding direct conflict with India, securing Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, and so on. In times of crisis--Kargil [war in 1999], Mumbai [attacks in 2008], Pakistan's financial crisis [in 2008]–-cooperation has actually been quite effective. The difficulty is that when it comes to identifying longer-term ways to cooperate, China becomes very resistant. It outright refused even to talk about a U.S. State Department plan for joint activities. Coordination rather than cooperation is a more realistic expectation--and plenty of China's economic activities in the country serve shared interests anyway.

Both the United States and China know that Pakistan's economic development is essential to its stability, and Chinese investments in infrastructure, energy, telecommunications, joint industrial zones, and many other areas will provide important support to that objective. Few other countries have the resources, capacity, and appetite for risk to have such a transformative impact in Pakistan. But even coordination is difficult while China--and the Chinese military in particular--seeks to protect the privileged nature of the bilateral relationship [with Pakistan] and while many of the gaps in goals and interests also exist. Not least, China is essentially suspicious of the U.S. role in Pakistan and the region more broadly and sees direct risks in being associated with unpopular U.S. activities.

In October last year, you wrote Pakistan has become "one of the only countries where Beijing has undertaken crisis contingency planning for scenarios ranging from state collapse to loose nukes." Could you elaborate? Is this a distinct change in Chinese policy toward Pakistan?

My understanding is that these are more along the lines of scenario planning for Chinese options in various eventualities rather than full military contingency planning, but it's difficult to ascertain with precision. Some scenarios I've heard cited are nuclear weapons falling into the hands of terrorists, a failure of Pakistan to contain militancy in the country, and war with India, but this is a murky realm of any country's military planning.

What it does signify is that Chinese anxiety about worst-case scenarios has undoubtedly risen. Threat-perceptions for Pakistan are generally lower in China than they are in the United States, but some of the scenarios have even more serious repercussions for Beijing than they do for Washington. There are direct spillover consequences for Xinjiang and to the full spectrum of China's strategic interests in South and Southwest Asia in situations where the Pakistani state is no longer capable of functioning effectively.
So any plans to manage Pakfail should also probably build in the factor of managing Chinese calculations and involvement.
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by shiv »

brihaspati wrote: While we are discussing the "failure of Pak", it may be worthwhile to explore this equation of "failure of a regime" == "failure of the state", if the Islamist society itself survives as Islamist. In fact the failure of the current arrangement can actually push for a different form, like a Taleb version, but not necessarily a "failure" as a "state".
This is an extremely good exposition of the problem we are up against with regard to Pakistan.

I would like to point out a few things in this regard.

First, what did Islam do when it first appeared in the middle east? The societies that existed before islam were tribal societies and kingdoms that were mostly at war with each other. Islam provided the ideological glue to create an essentially fascist set up that defeated all the disparate states. This was the political effect of Islam. That political effect (creating a reasonably united core) was based on several tricks and "sleight of hand" including the invoking (creation, cooking up) of a God or supreme leader. We tend to get bogged down by the theology and questions of presence or absence of spirituality when we talk about what Islam did. That is a diversion from the main issue and IMO that main issue was the ability of islam to organize ancient societies into a larger and essentially fascist group that could overrun less organised societies.

But IMO even Islam as a system did not take into account the variety that human society and human thought throws up and as a result Islam could go only so far in "uniting" people before islam itself split up into groups that disagreed with each other. Once again - please don't look at this as some kind of theological weakness - leave God out of this. As a system to organise people to live among each other with peace Islam just did not make the cut beyond its initial successes. It could not go global and will not go global. Even godless China today controls (and does a better job of organizing) more people than the entire ummah.

It took the emergence of the industrial revolution and the creation of widespread wealth (middle classes) that allowed societies to grow beyond the old monarchy-feudalism set up that Islam arose from. That occurred first in Europe and that led to the colonial empires and what we see as relatively recent history. But I digress.

The point I want to highlight is that islam is at its most roaring successful best in a society that is tribal, undeveloped and warring. That is exactly the society that islam originated from that that is the sort of society that the code was written for. It is no surprise that Islamists (intelligent people in their own right) demand that society go back to that phase (no TV, radio, etc) because it is that which gives islam its biggest following. Significantly the islamists do not seem to mind modern technology like machine guns and RPGs - which only indicates that it is the power they want and and not so much the religion which is a tool to keep people hypnotized. The religion keeps people under their power and their power is exerted by the best weapons they have - which are no longer islamic horses and swords.

A person who knows that a gun is useful for power is also a person who knows what a gun can do to him. So Islamist leaders can be intimidated by overwhelming force. Note that for all the suicide bombers and fidayeen sent out by Osama, Hafiz Saeed or wheoever - the main guys don't go and kill themselves. They want to stay alive. So they value life while saying that they do not mind death. They need to come face to face with death,

To cut a long story short the "control" of the Pakistani population will have to be by the imposition of "development",. This imposition has to come side by side with the violent imposition of death (or other punishment) on those who oppose such development. Religion will no doubt be cited as an excuse one way or the other - but secular death sentences on violent seekers of power who block "development" is what I would prefer.

Just some thoughts
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by brihaspati »

Only two examples come to mind where such a point-a-gun development or societal transition that helps development under similar ideological backlog - was attempted. one in post-war Japan under MacArthur. The other in post WWI Turkey. In political theory - this is closest to something called Bonapartism (most used by Thalheimmer). Where a society needs a revolutionary readjustment of power relations for the next phase of socio-economic development, but where the various groups for and against such a change are evenly balanced. Then the pro-change faction helps to bring to power a charismatic individual - typically a military commander who has shown some success on the field - to break the impasse. Such a "Bonapart" may actually turn on the very force that brought him to power as part of clipping their wings for their own good. However, such a "Bonapart" does what is required to take the "revolution" forward.

I am not going into the details of this - but note that for Pak something like this could have been the way out. Big problem : there is no larger than life figure to become a Bonapart. No spectacular military success like that in Gallipolli, or recapture of Phillipines, or clearing SEAsia of Japanese Imperial Army - nothing has happened to enhance the prestige of any Pak army commander.

So there is no way of doing what is being suggested - from within Pak. It can be external - like MacArthurs revolution in Japan. But then it has to be a total and crushing military defeat for PA. [Not an impossible situation however - since the legendary Multani resistance against Alexander, the ancestors of Pakis did not have a good record of repulsing invasions into their region - in fact they licked Iranian/Persina boots for some time before Alexander wandered in.]
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by harbans »

It is because India was in a state of mental confusion that someone like Nehru could keep getting re-elected. There was a lot of patriotism, but it was totally blind.

During Nehru's time the economy grew 8.5%. Check the GDP growth rates 1947-64. Obviously there was euphoria in the nation and things were going/ looking upwards from what the British had left India with in 47 (literacy 9%, Life expectancy 32 y, ppl speaking English in India <20k). What deluded folks was not Nehru, but the fact that many policies (read doctrine and he followed an incorrect doctrinal base for sure in many ways without doubt) he was putting forward started from a very low base. So a 8.5% growth rate from that perspective cannot be compared to a 7% growth rate in todays perspective surely. Also major nationalization of banks and industry took place in IGs time in late 60's..that was the disaster period between Nehru's death and 1991. The 'Hindu growth' rate phenomenon..So while Nehru 'ironically' did'nt perform well in the political foreign affairs dept as IG did in some respects..IG blew it as far as economy went.
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by shiv »

brihaspati wrote:
So there is no way of doing what is being suggested - from within Pak. It can be external - like MacArthurs revolution in Japan. But then it has to be a total and crushing military defeat for PA.
In fact this is why I wanted this thread. Currently I can see no hope for Pakistan other than a takeover by Islamists and a chronically dysfunctional area that needs religion based conflict for the leaders in Pakistan to survive.

Other possibilities include a splitting up into semi-functional and dysfunctional states.

In my view, attempting to keep "Pakistan" whole and intact within its current borders is likely to pose continuing problems as we have seen and are continuing to see.
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by Karna_A »

shiv wrote: The point I want to highlight is that islam is at its most roaring successful best in a society that is tribal, undeveloped and warring. That is exactly the society that islam originated from that that is the sort of society that the code was written for. It is no surprise that Islamists (intelligent people in their own right) demand that society go back to that phase (no TV, radio, etc) because it is that which gives islam its biggest following. Significantly the islamists do not seem to mind modern technology like machine guns and RPGs - which only indicates that it is the power they want and and not so much the religion which is a tool to keep people hypnotized. The religion keeps people under their power and their power is exerted by the best weapons they have - which are no longer islamic horses and swords.
That is right. As I mentioned before Islam is like secondary education, Christianity like undergraduate and Indic(Hinduism/Buddhism) are like Graduate education. Each has its own simplicities and complexities.
Therefore the faultlines of islam lie when it is superimposed on a civilization instead of a tribe e.g. Persian and Indic civilization.
Iran and TSP will perpetually be caught in this spiral towards self destruction as basically they have a BMW engine in a tractor's body, pretending to be an Iron Man.
The other point is in last 250 years Islam has not won a single comprehensive victory anywhere in any battle. There is just something about sword and horses since they have mention in Koran that just doesn't ring right with Machine guns, RPGs and F16s for the devoted.
For the true pious bombs, guns and missiles would be as haram as jeans, skirts and halter tops, apart from facebooks and twitters.
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by shiv »

Karna_A wrote: The other point is in last 250 years Islam has not won a single comprehensive victory anywhere in any battle.

I would like to change the construct of this sentence to show some interesting piskology here.

Technically, Islam per se cannot win any battle. People (armies) win battles. It so happens that some leaders who used the islam glue to unite people AND had the technology to win battles, won those battles. After winning those battles historians recorded those battles as having been "won by Islam"

So here we are now - several centuries down the line talking of "Islam winning battles". A rudimentary analysis will show that we are ending up doing GIGO because when we say "Islam won that battle" we start analysing why non Islamic forces lost. We start a theological discussion over what is essentially a military-society issue. That is the stuff of incredibly thoughtless rubbish. Islam does not win or lose battles. Armies do, but the victory is credited to a leader or a religion or an ideology.

Islam will lose battles just as readily as any other loser if you remember that what is required to lose a battle is military victory for the other side, not religious dominance. But what Islam does is to survive military defeats. In fact it thrives better in societies that see defeat and degradation. This is what Brihaspati was talking about when he was asking about the nature of Pakistani failure.

A failing Pakistan is a victory for islamism. Military defeats do not matter. In fact the greater the misery and privation, the closer a society moves towards the model society of AD 700 Arabia that allows despots of one ideology to rule. Islam has not been able to show the wherewithal to survive modernity. So far. Hence the desperation to make society into a type that fits the mould from which Islam was created and where Islam worked best.
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by RajeshA »

shiv wrote: Technically, Islam per se cannot win any battle. People (armies) win battles.
Don't want to be nitpicking here, but...

It is not only people who win battles. Often important is the strategy they use to win battles. Islam and Islamic history does provide a corpus of military theory, which does serves as the foundation for a war strategy. So if 'people' can win battles using such a war strategy, then one can say at some level of abstraction, that it is a victory for Islam. Besides Islam does function as an effective war cry, a tool for motivation of the foot-soldiers.

In any case, Muslims do not really pride themselves for being creative and open-minded thinkers. They declare openly that all knowledge is in Qu'ran, and one need not look elsewhere. This mentality provides all the more reason to credit any victory to Islam rather than to the people.
shiv wrote:Islam will lose battles just as readily as any other loser if you remember that what is required to lose a battle is military victory for the other side, not religious dominance.
It is not the case, that a war strategy based on Islamic history, etc. will necessary be better than the war strategy of the opposing group. So there is no guarantee, that Islam is a winning strategy. For a military victory, one needs resources, battle field intelligence, good tactics, etc., and has little to do with Islam.

But Islam is in a continuous war. Even in 'peacetime', there is recruitment, weapons procurement, foot soldiers are motivated, next battles are planned, society is manipulated using siege imagery, new training camps are established, new alliances forged, provocations are carried out to test waters, motivate followers, etc.

As Islam is always in a state of constant war, everything that occurs in society which prepares itself for further battles, including the reaffirmation of society to the creed of Islam is considered part of the preparation. As such all efforts to introduce Sharia in a country; all efforts to bring down a regime, which does not fit the prerequisites of a purely Islamic regime; all occurrences of conflict, strife and war-hysteria against a non-Muslim country; all improvements in the networking of various Islamic and Jihadist groups in the world; all efforts at infiltration into a non-Muslim country; all new converts to Islam; the steady increase in Muslim populations both in the Muslim world and in non-Muslim countries; all these are considered important aspects of war preparation, important stages in the World domination of Islam, Islam's ultimate declared goal. All this is considered victory of Islam.

I just wanted to stress, that victory can be defined in many different ways. Even the definition of military victory is prone to manipulative propaganda. Sometimes a short-term victory is simply the first phase of a long-term defeat, e.g. in Afghanistan for NATO troops.
shiv wrote:But what Islam does is to survive military defeats. In fact it thrives better in societies that see defeat and degradation. This is what Brihaspati was talking about when he was asking about the nature of Pakistani failure.
Islam survives military defeats, but usually when the opposing side, is not interested in conversions of the defeated populace from Islam to some other creed, either because it conflicts with one's own faith, or because it requires too much effort, or it is not considered of any strategic value. That has been the case almost always w.r.t. to Islam's opponents. The opposing side would have to be more 'Islamic' than the defeated Muslims.

For the defeated Muslims, Islam serves as a psychological crutch. This is the case, because Islamic groups make it a point to always be at hand when a society under siege. Gaza comes to mind. Kashmir (to some extent) also fits the criteria. People who are on their knees have special psychological needs, and Islam is to the rescue.
shiv wrote:A failing Pakistan is a victory for islamism. Military defeats do not matter. In fact the greater the misery and privation, the closer a society moves towards the model society of AD 700 Arabia that allows despots of one ideology to rule. Islam has not been able to show the wherewithal to survive modernity. So far. Hence the desperation to make society into a type that fits the mould from which Islam was created and where Islam worked best.
A failing Pakistan is a victory for Islamism, only if it is let to its own devices. Three things stop another actor, like India, to come and mold Pakistan into a modernity-compatible society.
  • The military might that TSPA+Lashkars represent, including the nukes, and support from 3½ friends
  • A single-minded ferocity in conversions to the Dharmic faiths
  • Resources and Determination to undertake such a project
Islamism can win after the failing of Pakistan only if other actors allow the Islamic groups to thrive unimpeded. Brain-washed Muslim populations of Pakistan, if not converted, can again be won over by Islamist groups, even after their initial defeat. USA may have thrown the Taliban out of power, but USA did not do anything to change the landscape of the populace, which remained ever susceptible for reconquest by the Taliban.

In fact it will be a totally futile exercise by India to undertake something in Pakistan, unless the populations are not shown the way back into the Dharmic fold in parallel. Otherwise India would have invested huge amounts of treasure and blood, only to have the whole effort brought to a failure a few years down the road, when the Islamic groups resurface.
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by harbans »

Excellent post Rajeshji!

But Islam is in a continuous war. Even in 'peacetime', there is recruitment, weapons procurement, foot soldiers are motivated, next battles are planned, society is manipulated using siege imagery, new training camps are established, new alliances forged, provocations are carried out to test waters, motivate followers, etc.

As Islam is always in a state of constant war, everything that occurs in society which prepares itself for further battles, including the reaffirmation of society to the creed of Islam is considered part of the preparation. As such all efforts to introduce Sharia in a country; all efforts to bring down a regime, which does not fit the prerequisites of a purely Islamic regime; all occurrences of conflict, strife and war-hysteria against a non-Muslim country; all improvements in the networking of various Islamic and Jihadist groups in the world; all efforts at infiltration into a non-Muslim country; all new converts to Islam; the steady increase in Muslim populations both in the Muslim world and in non-Muslim countries; all these are considered important aspects of war preparation, important stages in the World domination of Islam, Islam's ultimate declared goal. All this is considered victory of Islam.


Well said. I've always maintained that Islamic doctrine exhorts followers to pressurize the Kufr in more ways than one. Understanding and imbibing that is key rather than reeling statistics of peaceful followers or doing == on saffron and Muslim terror. Understanding the ongoing civilizational Ghazwa specially during peacetime is a must for policy makers in Europe, US and India. I'm sure one can engage the doctrine intellectually without causing offense to moderate practitioners of the doctrine.

Yet, not ironical really, while the Taliban brass regularly go to perform Hajj in Mecca without any restrictions in doctrine, there's a complete bar on Ahmedi's for example in performing Hajj or entering Mecca. The doctrine clearly recognizes the legitimacy of the Taliban over a moderate Ahmedi.
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by brihaspati »

There are certain common themes in Islamic military strategy. It is less about military and more about a shrewd understanding of human social behaviour.

(1) Islam thinks of "total war", which means Islamic society and its leadership is always preparing for eventual war, and seeks to annihilate all possible sources of resistance, in all possible ways.

(2) Islam follows no ethical rules of engagement or warfare. So it has complete strategic and tactical flexibility in planning and executing war. It however uses any ethical restrictions within the enemy to further its own war aims. This is revealed in the fact that most Islamist armies have shown remarkable tactical and strategic flexibility where their enemies could have tied themselves up because of their own doctrinal or cultural restrictions. Islam has no doctrine of war other than annihilation of the enemy, which is a tactical advantage over all competing theories of war. Everything is allowed in Islamic warfare - deception, breaking down treaties, attacking non-combatants and civilians, assassinations, torture and murder of pows, looting, raping and abduction or enslavement.

(3) On victory, depending on possibility of retaliation, a systematic campaign to destroy the possibility of retaliation within one or two generations. This was done by targeting post-puberty males of the defeated population for either conversion [once converted they can be kept within the fold on pain of death ] or killing outright. This is done to ensure that the most likely military source of resistance in the defeated population, the young males or male children are removed from either taking up arms against.

(4) A systematic destruction of all cultural centres, and intellectuals of the enemy, and destruction of cultural icons as well as knowledge base. Further a demographic change sought to be induced by converting, abducting, and marrying or enslaving by force women and girls of the enemy. This is targeted at simultaneously reducing the number of the enemy and its capacity to reproduce, and increase Islamic demographic dominance.

(3)+(4) is the reason that Islamic strategy failed in the long run, if the enemy population was too large and too spread out or covering a wide area in sufficient strength. Europe and India could not be kept under in the long term. Compared to both, ME and CAR were sparsely populated and lacked "mass".

(5) On defeat, Islamics do their best to use the ethical values of the enemy to survive with a core of their own intellectuals, cultural icons, and the better part of their male youth so that in time they can regenerate their military potential. Islamics would have been short work, if they had faced pagan Romans and not Christian Romans in their initial phase. Romans of the pagan phase come closest to Islamic strategy - they had a organized system to enslave and even had a system of organizing the rape of the women of the defeated on the battle field and in the camps. They destroyed entire cities, killed even the dogs and animals of the city, and put salt into the ground so nothing grew for generations. They killed all able bodied males and/or enslaved them.

The Christianized Spaniards found a way out in the Reconquista, by forcing the surviving Islamics to either convert out of Islam or be driven out. A very similar strategy was adopted in Bulgaria but less talked about.

The modern establishment of the Geneva convention arose out of the European need to prevent retaliation in the future from those whom they had trashed by war. So, after gaining all their pre-eminence by flouting all the provisions of the Convention they now ensure that this power remains unchallenged by instituting a global code that bars others from using their own strategy to rise to power.

Islamics, like Europeans [except the hapless Nazis, whose only fault appears to be biting off too much to chew, but whose ideology found surprisingly sympathetic European ears in the beginning] have been rare in facing trials against humanity or for war crimes. Europeans have appeared only if they were a thorn in the sides of the dominant imperial power within Europe, or if they had gone against Islamics as in Bosnia and Serbia. Do you expect Talebs to appear for war-crimes? Nah! US military commanders and politicians for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Vietnam? European heads of states for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Africa? Can Pak military commanders be tried for war crimes in BD and on the western front even in the last decades?

So in this respect the inherent fondness for Islamism that runs hidden within the modern cornered Christianity of European thread that sees it as a better option to Judiasm and the "eastern mysticism", and the self-binding restriction of modern war-ethics can be and will be used by Pak Islamists too.

One of the ways to bypass this problem, and apply back the tactics used by Islamics themselves - is to provoke and create conditions by which the majority of Paki males take up arms and become combatants. There are many psychological and other tools which can be used. Also try and create conditions where they fortify and attack from their cultural centres [which they typically also do as these have been traditionally the storehouse of secret arms caches etc, a well known mosque in Calcutta was used for the purpose in 1947, but it still stands! The very first mosque built by the founding father was used a rallying point for war and assassination campaigns as well as to store arms] so that these cultural centres could be destroyed as part of military campaign. Providing state incentives for orphan women to be married off to non-Muslims. These are all a replication of pagan roman and islamic strategy as modified within modern restrictions. It is like replacing the death penalty with a jail term of 200 years. Serving a common objective without using the less ethically palatable method. So on.

Once defeated, a systematic destruction of all the cultural instruments for dissemination of Islamism has to be undertaken, and financial, economic and other incentives provided [and disincentives provided if refused] to abandon the faith. But this process has to be maintained for many generations to prevent a comeback.
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by A_Gupta »

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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by RajeshA »

brihaspati wrote:Once defeated, a systematic destruction of all the cultural instruments for dissemination of Islamism has to be undertaken, and financial, economic and other incentives provided [and disincentives provided if refused] to abandon the faith. But this process has to be maintained for many generations to prevent a comeback.
Brihaspati garu,

The problem I see, is that India does not possess a criteria for differentiating between THEM & US. Of course Dharma allows everybody to choose his own way - To Live and To Let Live. The problem with this philosophy is that it also allows those to live who do not believe in this commandment. If India wants to take a forceful determined stand, then it has to put this commandment on its head -
  • To Live and To Let Live .. Only those who also believe in this commandment.
  • Human rights are universal. Only those who believe in this, belong in this universe.
  • Tolerance only for the Tolerant.
Those who do not follow the commandment, who are from another universe, who are not tolerant, ARE NOT US.

India needs to build further on its political philosophy. The above stance has to be ingrained deep into the Indian psyche, into the Indian Constitution itself. Indian State has to become an active agent - an enforcer of the above doctrine.

Everybody in India has to be given a chance to swear on this doctrine, usually this would be done by getting the various sects and churches and groups to swear on this commandment (amongst some others).

Those who swear on it are US. Those amongst us, who do not swear on it, will be monitored. The others are THEM.

Indian Muslims too can be US, if they abide by certain Dharmic doctrines. It is not an exclusionary doctrine.

If India should take up the project of forcing the Pakistanis back into the fold, then it requires a strong national resolve, but a resolve sanctioned to us by a Constitution, itself based on a sound political philosophical footing.

JMTs
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by Pratyush »

B, the ideas being put forward by you are little ahead of time and am not rally sure if they can be implimented in the current geopolitical sceneroio. But they have an eliment of truth and are not entirly without relevence. i.e the threat from Islam has to be eliminated.

What one can say is that the task being proposed by you is not one that can be undertaken without the involvement of nearly entire humanity. But the possibility of doing that is quite remote.

Alternatively, We need to make organised religion (Islam, Christianity ) with its ready made answeres irrelevent. Humanity needs a new relegion.

Let me try and expalin my thoughts a little bit. A new relegion will have all the eliments of what Vedic relegion as it exists/d. In order to achieve it, the pull of the Abhramic relegions will have made intellectually ineffective. The question is HOW?

I am thinking a new age of enlightenment. Something as revoloutinery as the origin of species. As if one is to study the "seculirasation", of Europe. One will find that, that book along with a few other ideas played a great part in the evolution of modern Europe.

Organised relegion needs some thing similar and as revoloutionary. So that no one is able to deny the validity of the new Discovery. Any denial will stand in denial of reality. Some thing which makes ready made answeres irrelevant. And triggers a crisis of faith which leads to a delegitmising of whole relegious doctrines .

If that is accomplised then the soieties which accept the new truth will florish. Those that don't will die.

Discovery of new life and civilisation in space could be one such discovery (Did i just tell you that I am a trekie :) ).

But that is in future. But you get the gist.

Let me close by saying that I believe that organised relegion with its emphasis on saving souls and judgement day is a threat to the Indic way of life and the threat to Indics must be made ineffective. I also look at humanity as a whole, the divisions between nations as artificial (but thats a diffrent discussion) I also don't look at the past for solutions.

I realise that this may seem OT for the thread. But if one makes Islam irrelevant then one will find that the threat to Indics is eliminated and the threat of collaps and faliure of TSP is managed.

Just some confused thoughts.
Last edited by Pratyush on 13 Jul 2010 20:17, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by Pratyush »

RajeshA wrote:
brihaspati wrote:Once defeated, a systematic destruction of all the cultural instruments for dissemination of Islamism has to be undertaken, and financial, economic and other incentives provided [and disincentives provided if refused] to abandon the faith. But this process has to be maintained for many generations to prevent a comeback.
Brihaspati garu,

SNIP.............

a Constitution, itself based on a sound political philosophical footing.

JMTs

+1 you have said it better then I ever could
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by RajeshA »

Pratyush wrote:Discovery of new life and civilisation in space could be one such discovery (Did i just tell you that I am a trekie :) ).
Then you must be knowing how Jean Luc Picard would solve this conundrum of Pakistan! :wink:

The problem is the Islamists can do better taqiya than the Borg! Imagine the Borg doing Taqiya as effectively as Species 8472!
Last edited by RajeshA on 13 Jul 2010 21:06, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by Pratyush »

RajeshA wrote:
Pratyush wrote:Discovery of new life and civilisation in space could be one such discovery (Did i just tell you that I am a trekie :) ).
Then you must be knowing how Jean Luc Picard would solve this conundrum of Pakistan! :wink:

The problem is the Islamists can do better taqiya than the Borg!

Am thinking in terms of James T Kirk.

Anyway, if they do a better taquia than the borg. By the time they are done with taquia they will have lost their population faster then one can say warp 9.9 :D . And resitance is futile. :mrgreen:
Last edited by Pratyush on 13 Jul 2010 20:42, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by RajeshA »

Pratyush wrote:Am thinking in terms of James T Kirk
James T. Kirk would just go and sleep with Hamid Gul! That's a no-brainer!

Either that or he will provoke the Wrath of Khan, making Khan too mad to think straight. :D
Last edited by RajeshA on 13 Jul 2010 20:43, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by brihaspati »

Incorporation into the Constitution is not a guarantee of being accepted and applied publicly - especially in the domain of fundamental ideology or life philosophy. Moreover, as Shiv ji has pointed out, Indian masses have their own way of thinking about what they should think. So if "living and let live" has been ingrained within Indian lief philosophy in general, a mere Constitutional change may not be successful.

one of the problems that Shiv ji has correctly pointed out, is that if we wait for the perfect conditions to carry out the perfect method against Pak, we may have to wait for eternity. He feels that outright war is out of the option now [no need to go into the reasons] he has gone into the direction of what concrete non-war steps that can be taken.

I partly agree with him in the sense that there are certain non-war things that can be tried out. however what he has not made clear, and which I think is necessary to make it clear, is that what non-war steps we take now is crucially dependent on what our vision for the region and its people in the distant future- is. My analysis puts me to thinking that even if we take non-war steps now - they have to be part of a future Indian rashtryia sovereignty and control over the region and an eventual war that will have to be engaged in to make that happen. The end points, direct rashtryia control and eventual war to smash the Islamist apparatus, lie in the future. But the steps we take in the future will have no success or be a waste if those end points are not in sight.

If the world is less concerned with Islamism because they think they are far from its effects, then we cannot let our own immediate problem aggravate because the whole world is not joining us in our concern. In this Shiv ji again has a point.
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by Pratyush »

RajeshA wrote:
Pratyush wrote:Am thinking in terms of James T Kirk
James T. Kirk would just go and sleep with Hamid Gul. That's a no-brainer!
that was fast. :) i think we should quit before the evil bradmin catches us
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by RajeshA »

I did mention this earlier.

What often happens, is that a suggestion made on the subject of Managing Pakistan's Failure often ends up facing communication dissonance, simply because it is being made without it being properly annotated/tagged with the appropriate scenario/phase in our reference models of the evolution of this failure. Of course it would help if there is generally accepted reference model of this failure, perhaps with phases, perhaps with scenarios, etc.

Just MHO!
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by RajeshA »

The Long View from Delhi: To Define the Indian Grand Strategy for Foreign Policy: Event at Hudson Institute

Disclaimer: I haven't read the book!

First Impressions after listening to the event broadcast:

***********

Lisa Curtis mentions that only rosy scenarios have been painted about Pakistan's development, and scenarios of how India would respond if Islamists take over or if there are major terrorist attacks on India have been left out. Also the horrible scenario about the Pakistani Army splitting because of land redistribution pressures, should be avoided.

Lisa Curtis mentions that the book does prescribe that Pakistan's stability is in India's interest, and India and USA should perhaps jointly help Pakistan out of its conundrum.

Lisa Curtis seems to be happy that India is coming to the view, that US help in stabilizing Pakistan, is indeed in India's interest.

***********

I am sorry to say, but we at BRF just don't know a thing about what is in India's interest regarding Pakistan. We have been living in a parallel dimension, and the Strategists in Indian Government live somewhere else, may be on Middle Earth, where Pakistan is a neighboring village in Shire, where the only difference between the Pakistanis and Indians is that Pakistanis are taller Hobbits and eat more meat during their second suppers. :shock:
Last edited by RajeshA on 13 Jul 2010 21:59, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by SBajwa »

What often happens, is that a suggestion made on the subject of Managing Pakistan's Failure often ends up facing communication dissonance
Dissonance is widespread

Indians have failed to connect the historical dots vis-a-vis Islamists. (indoctrination by Congress and "Secular" forces)

naPakistans have also failed to connect the historical dots vs-a-vis Dharmics. (indoctrination by Mullahs, Army and psedu rulers of India)
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by RajeshA »

SBajwa ji,

you are right, however ...

the Communication Dissonance I mentioned was meant to pertain only to the discussion here on this Thread and Topic.
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by shiv »

One of the most difficult things about India dealing with Pakistan is related to the "us" versus "not us" question.

Just how much of Pakistan is "not us"? The easy answer is "All of it" - but in reality Pakistan and India are too similar even after 60 years of separate existence. This presents us with a problem.

If Pakistanis were not like us, do we have to make them like us to eventually integrate the subcontinent? ( I am deliberately using what I believe is a non controversial word "integrate")

If Pakistanis are already like us, what stops integration?

It you look at details you find that the world is divided into "developed and powerful" and "less developed and less powerful". India and Pakistan firmly belong in the category of "less developed and less powerful"

Development and power have so far gone hand in hand. "Development" is basically synonymous with:
  • 1. Development of an extensive non agrarian economy - with a suitable combination of manufacturing, financial and other services.
    2. Universal education to contribute to the above mentioned economy
    3. Usually a national rule set (laws, constitution) that is equitable
    4. The creation of a large middle class and the virtual eradication of poverty and seasonal poverty
    5. Religion plays no role in any of the above 4 requirements of development
India's quest for development has been bumbling along in the general direction of the above 5 requirements in fits and starts and with great reluctance, confusion and fuss.

Pakistan has done virtually nothing in achieving the above 5 aims and is therefore falling behind in development.

In their current condition, any future integration of Pakistan and India would make Pakistanis a huge liability to India even if they were Buddhists or Hindus with no Islamists. We have enough development related trouble of our own without a Pakistani millstone around our necks.

the presence of Islamism in Pakistan is
1) an additional headache for us
2) it is also probably the root cause of lack of development of Pakistan.

if Pakistan were to magically seek some kind or reconciliation/reintegration with the rest of the subcontinent would our priorities have to be to fight Islamism or ignore it and go for development?

Fortunately for us the answer is quite simple. Islamism is such an idiotically xenophobic force that there is no question of integration without the elimination of Islamism, or at least its more deleterious effects on India. This is what made me state what I stated about Islam and violence. There can be no negotiation with violence. Violence must stop even if it is claimed that the Quran itself demands it.

The big question to my mind is whether there exists enough sanity in Pakistan to stop violence against India. I see little evidence of such sanity in Pakistan. Islam itself has to be moderated/culled/watered down by Pakistanis in Pakistan for sanity to occur. It might occur if there is enough bloodshed in Pakistan. So that is a big question mark which is going to halt any ideas of peace/reconciliation.

Can we do anything? We are already asking for a stopping of violence against India. If islam calls for violence against India, then India is already calling for a stoppage of what Islam demands. It is really in the hands of Pakistanis to see if they can water down their own Islam to stop violence. if Islam is amenable to watering down we can then see what else is possible. Until then we should aim to keep violence away from us and let Islam kill its own if that is what it calls for. We can only play a peripheral game of carrot and stick - subversive when possible, supportive if that helps us in any way. Note that certain types of support to Pakistan may be subversive to other Pakis - so there may be opportunities in support.

If it magically happens that violence against India is stopped, the next step in reintegration would be some trade etc aimed at eventual development of both nations. To say that such development would invariably be deleterious to India is premature . We are not even at that stage, but no harm in linking cooperation with some checks and balances that will prevent Islamism from rising again. But all that is hypothetical. One step at a time IMO.
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by harbans »

I must say Brihaspati and Rajesh Ji some very excellent thinking and keepers posted here. thats the kind of thinking we have to engage not just the WKK type liberals with but amongst moderate muslims as well. These are the fears of the 'Kufr' as evidenced by a millenia of conquest and wars. And one must express one's deepest anguish as unemotionally as possible. The process of using peacetime as one of outbreeding, unassimilation, ghettoization, negating historical fact and fears must at the minimum if not be unacceptable be expressed by those who may turn up to be victims of the quest for doctrinal domination at some point of time.


Alternatively, We need to make organised religion (Islam, Christianity ) with its ready made answeres irrelevent. Humanity needs a new relegion.


Quite a bit of humanity did develop constitutions that empower the state over religion without necessarily negating it. But quite a bit of humanity negate constitutions that give equal rights, freedom of expressions and in many societies including in ours right wing elements use criticism as an excuse to undermine the constitution. So in many ways right wing elements with narrow minded agendas also undermine constitutional freedoms.

However this is where i have some reservations..

One of the ways to bypass this problem, and apply back the tactics used by Islamics themselves - is to provoke and create conditions by which the majority of Paki males take up arms and become combatants. There are many psychological and other tools which can be used. Also try and create conditions where they fortify and attack from their cultural centres

I doubt this is a way out unless we've been nuked by Islamists and licking wounds of a few million dead in the streets of Mumbai and Delhi..and if that happens is a weak option. For in case of such a happening society must brace to completely negate the doctrine responsible for the act and within hours strive to eliminate it wherever it exists. Meanwhile in peacetime we must have the ability to express our apprehensions freely, objectively and without antagonism, hate or animosity. Thats more than a subtle difference in approach between a right wing approach and a rational self preservation approach adopted by societies such as ours and Europe. By such engagement we could and should try and make moderate Muslims join and understand the predicament our civilizations face.
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by surinder »

brihaspati wrote:One of the ways to bypass this problem, and apply back the tactics used by Islamics themselves - is to provoke and create conditions by which the majority of Paki males take up arms and become combatants. ... so that these cultural centres could be destroyed as part of military campaign. Providing state incentives for orphan women to be married off to non-Muslims. These are all a replication of pagan roman and islamic strategy as modified within modern restrictions. It is like replacing the death penalty with a jail term of 200 years. Serving a common objective without using the less ethically palatable method. So on.

Once defeated, a systematic destruction of all the cultural instruments for dissemination of Islamism has to be undertaken, and financial, economic and other incentives provided [and disincentives provided if refused] to abandon the faith. But this process has to be maintained for many generations to prevent a comeback.

Brihaspati, I cannot disaggree with you. Unless a full and complete erasure is unertaken, no hope for a permanent solution. The experience of Ranjit Singh is valid. But who will do it? I don't see any hope of anyone in India even remotely up to the task. I am sorry, but this approach, while correct, is basically a dream.
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by RajeshA »

shiv wrote:One of the most difficult things about India dealing with Pakistan is related to the "us" versus "not us" question.

Just how much of Pakistan is "not us"? The easy answer is "All of it" - but in reality Pakistan and India are too similar even after 60 years of separate existence. This presents us with a problem.

If Pakistanis were not like us, do we have to make them like us to eventually integrate the subcontinent? ( I am deliberately using what I believe is a non controversial word "integrate")

If Pakistanis are already like us, what stops integration?
'US' & 'NOT US' are separated by two criteria:
1) The capacity to coexist without resorting to violence.
2) The ability to coexist within a framework of a secular Constitution, even if the power ratio changes in favor of those who may be reluctant co-passengers, e.g. the usual refrain of Muslims increase their numbers too quickly or become too aggressive to be contained within the system.

Per se, the criteria does not exclude the Muslims.

The above distinction is not about culture, language, ethnicity, etc, but rather about values of coexistence.
shiv wrote:The big question to my mind is whether there exists enough sanity in Pakistan to stop violence against India. I see little evidence of such sanity in Pakistan. Islam itself has to be moderated/culled/watered down by Pakistanis in Pakistan for sanity to occur. It might occur if there is enough bloodshed in Pakistan. So that is a big question mark which is going to halt any ideas of peace/reconciliation.

Can we do anything? We are already asking for a stopping of violence against India. If islam calls for violence against India, then India is already calling for a stoppage of what Islam demands. It is really in the hands of Pakistanis to see if they can water down their own Islam to stop violence. if Islam is amenable to watering down we can then see what else is possible. Until then we should aim to keep violence away from us and let Islam kill its own if that is what it calls for. We can only play a peripheral game of carrot and stick - subversive when possible, supportive if that helps us in any way. Note that certain types of support to Pakistan may be subversive to other Pakis - so there may be opportunities in support.
I see the problem, as Indians not having formulated well enough what our State Philosophy ought to be, and what we demand of all those who wish to integrate themselves with us.

This State Philosophy should be instituted at the core of our Constitution and should continuously be propagated through our education system, our media and our society at large. Legislation should be actively pursued which discourages any alternate State Philosophy or willful deviation from it. Had this been the case, India could have pursued the Islamist groups within India and removed them from any position of influence over the Muslim masses. The Indian State could have over a period of time forced Islam in India to take a definite Dharmic flavor, in any case compatible with the Values of the State.

Why do all this? For three reasons:
1) It would have eliminated the aggressive Islamist groups from India and curbed their activity. Good for social harmony!
2) It would have lessened the apprehensions others feel, contemplating Muslims in India getting more power, e.g. through population increase, etc.
3) It would have changed the nature of Islam in India. Of course, Qu'ran and its message remain, but the focus would have changed, perhaps changed enough to have become an additional important basic doctrine.

How is all this relevant to managing Pakistan's evolution?
Well if we had really been able to reform Indian Islam to conform to the most important pillars of an harmonious society in India, then we would have known what to demand of the Muslims in Pakistan; we would have known in what direction to influence them; we would have known exactly how much reform work needed to be done.

As things stand, India has not developed any model for the reform of Islam, or lets say, reform of the value-set of Muslim societies within India. So we do not have a model for Pakistan either. Considering that they are far far off the scale of human reason and coexistability, the only other model available, or rather imaginable, is that of forceful Dharmization of 200+ million idiots.

That on the other hand, is by far not India's cup of tea - it is beyond resolve, beyond resources and beyond our values.

So what model do we have left: Well there is the model of Live and Let Live, however you are!

We can do some tuning. Keep on pleading with Pakistan not to kill us. Don't let the Pakistani Army collapse. Don't let the Talibanis come to power. Keep Pakistan from imploding even if we have to face some sparks of its occasional explosions. I don't know for what time frame, this model is applicable. How long we can push back destiny? We have no control over Pakistan's disease of Purificative Islamism, and we know neither does any one else.

Pleading Pakistanis to be reasonable will not help. I made the case in this post and this post, that there is little that Pakistan can do to escape their doom. It is pre-programmed.

In the mean time Islamism continues its war, where peacetime is just a pitstop for filling some more gas.
RajeshA
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Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by RajeshA »

Another scenario, I would like to throw in the round is the possibility that this Joint Effort to stabilize Pakistan, about which USA and India have been talking recently really comes into play.

Is it possible, that the Pakistani Establishment, incl. TSPA, seeing how under stress it is, both from an under-performing economy and the Talibanism, agrees to a joint US-India support to keep Pakistan afloat. Initially the Pakistanis would feel, that if India is willing to pay money to them just like that, why should they object.

With time, say 10-15 years, American contributions to the joint aid keep on going down, while India's contributions to stabilizing Pakistan keep on increasing. At the end of the day, Pakistani Army would become India's 'nigger' (used in the way American blacks use it).

Over the period of time, TSPA would be willing to change the education curriculum, cut down on anti-India propaganda, bring down Hate amongst the Pakistani people for India, ityadi, ityadi.

In this scenario, the USA does everything to increase India's wealth, as India is the main wealth-generating engine on the Indian Subcontinent, and India gradually takes over the upkeep of the Pakistani Army, with a couple of billions of dollars each year flowing to Pakistan from India. Of course, a vibrant trade can also help.

I presume this may be a model being pursued by MMS.

What sucks in this model is that TSPA would keep on playing India against China and will not come around to accepting India as its uncontested master. A direct link through PoK between Pakistan and China sucks big time!
Lalmohan
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Joined: 30 Dec 2005 18:28

Re: Managing Pakistan's failure

Post by Lalmohan »

Rajeshji - try "nigga" instead
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